CRM @ BELGIUM
JOHAN ALBRECHT
UNIVERSITEIT GENT, ITINERA INSTITUTE
BAEE, KVAB, WEC-BELGIUM
BENELUX, 11/05/2016
SOURCE: ELIA (2016). ADEQUACY STUDY AND ASSESSMENT OF THE NEED
FOR FLEXIBILITY IN THE BELGIAN ELECTRICITY SYSTEM (WWW.ELIA.BE)
CRM; Quantity?
EEA; three main air pollutants are responsible for over 430 000 premature
deaths across Europe (BE: 11 000 deaths per year)
The WHO Regional Office for Europe (2015): 600 000 premature deaths
and diseases caused by local air pollution
In terms of costs; EEA annual health cost of EUR 330-940 billion
WHO European Region: USD 1.6 trillion (almost 1/10th of EU GDP in 2013).
WHEN WE FULLY INTERNALIZE THE REAL SOCIAL COST OF CARBON…
•
Gas jumps in front of coal in the merit order (
ceteris paribus)
•
Elia (2016); 8 000 hours for CCGTs in 2027
•
Accelerated coal phase-out, strong boost for electrification
•
But EU ETS (as of today); institutional barrier for internalization of real carbon cost
•
Probability of high ETS-price post-2020?
CRM DEBATE; RESULT OF INSTITUTIONAL MASOCHISM
•
‘Liberalize markets’ but select technologies with ‘20/20/20’ & phase-outs plans ;
subsidize RES in a shrinking market ; launch low-carbon energy transition without
(high) price on CO
2
•
CRM for CCGT/OCGT/DSM/Storage –> Soviet-style central planning; everything is
subsidized in liberalized markets
•
Central planners have a poor record in terms of fast adaptation
•
Digitalization and micro-storage will create responsive consumer (and eliminate
profitable investments in overcapacity) – WHEN?
