*Demographics and Youth
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%
1970 2016 2065
DIRECTIONS: DEMOGRAPHIC EVOLUTION – BRAZIL
www.fgv.br/fgvsocial
Rise and Fall of the Demographic Bonus
Evolution of the Youth Population from 15 to 29 years: Brazil - 1980 to 2050 YOUTH
Long Youth Wave 2003 to 2022 =
“Pororoca Jovem”
YOUTH
Evolution of the Youth Population from 15 to 29 years: World - 1950 to 2100
Temporal Evolution of the Share of Youth in the Population from 15 to 29 years: World - 1950 to 2100
Developed countries
China
Less developed countries
World
South America
Brazil
www.fgv.br/fgvsocial
Once started, the speed of youth share reduction in Brazil only compares with China
Share of Youth Population from 15 to 29 years:
Brazil and the World: 2010
YOUTH
The relative size of the Brazilian Youth compares today with the World
Share of the Youth that neither work nor study (15 a 24 years) - Brazil and developed countries
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32
Paises Baixos Dinamarca Islândia Suíça Suécia Austria Eslovênia Luxemburgo Finlândia Noruega Alemanha Japão Canadá República Tcheca Estônia Polônia Austrália França Portugal Zona Euro União Européia Reino Unido Hongria Nova Zelândia Estados Unidos Eslováquia Bélgica Irlanda Espanha Grécia Italia Israel Turquia
porcentagem da população jovem (15 a 24 anos)
Porcentagem da população jovem (15 a 24 anos) que nem tratabalha nem estuda
Brasil OCDE
Fonte: Estimativas produzidas pela OCDE com base empesquisas nacionais de mercado de trabalho Percentage of the young population (15 to 24 years)
Brazil OECD
Evolution of the percentage of the youth that neither work, nor study, or are parents, by age group: What happened to 18-21 years olds?
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
15 a 17 anos 18 a 24 anos
24 a 29 anos 18 a 21 anos
Source: SAE/PR based on the Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD).
18 to 21 years
18 to 24 years
24 to 29 years
15 to 17 years
62,3
80,2
71,3
66,4
62,1
58,9
48,2 50,7
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Total No Instruction Primary Incomplete
Primary Complete High School Incomplete
High School Complete
College Incomplete
College Complete
Prob. of Continue Not Studying Nor Working (nem-nem*) with respect to the previous Year – By Initial Schooling Level - Youth 15 to 29 years
2016-17
Source: FGV Social from PNADC Annual/IBGE microdata – Longitudinal 12 months between 2016 and 2017
Falls with Education = Poverty Trap
Source: FGV Social from PNADC Annual/IBGE microdata – Longitudinal 12 months between 2016 and 2017 62,3
49,4
58,3
65,5
68,2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Total AB C D E
Prob. of Continue Not Studying Nor Working (nem-nem) with respect to previous Year – By Economic Class Youth 15 to 29 years
89,5
70,0
87,5 92,3 93,6
70,3 73,3
67,7 71,3 73,2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Total AB C D E
Prob. of Continue Not Studying and Prob. of Continue Not Working with respect to previous Year – By Economic Class Youth 15 to 29 years
Keep not Studying Keep Not Working
Falls with Family Income = Poverty Trap
Not Studying falls with Income but not working
doesn’t
77% 28%
6 years
Between 18 and 24 years Between 30 and 64 years JOBS TURN-OVER RATE
MEAN TIME ON CURRENT JOB
2 years
Source: 1. SAE/PR based on the Cadastro Geral de Empregados e Desempregados (CAGED), 2013.
2. SAE/PR base on the Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD), 2012.
34% 26%
PERCENTAGE THAT ASK FOR DISMISSAL, OF ALL THE
DISMISSALS
YOUNG ADULT
