• Nenhum resultado encontrado

Análise da estrutura de dependência da volatilidade entre setores durante a crise do subprime

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2017

Share "Análise da estrutura de dependência da volatilidade entre setores durante a crise do subprime"

Copied!
28
0
0

Texto

(1)

A

NÁLISE DA ESTRUTURA DE DEPENDÊNCIA DA

VOLATILIDADE ENTRE SETORES DURANTE A CRISE DO

S

UBPRIME

P

edro

L

uiz

V

alls

P

ereira

B

runo

P

ontes

de

A

rruda

Julho

de 2012

T

Te

ex

x

to

t

os

s

p

pa

ar

r

a

a

D

Di

is

sc

c

us

u

s

s

s

ão

ã

o

311

C

CE

EQ

QE

EF

F

W

Wo

or

rk

k

in

i

ng

g

P

Pa

ap

pe

er

r

S

Se

e

ri

r

ie

es

s

01

(2)

TEXTO PARA DISCUSSÃO 311–CEQEF Nº 01•JULHO DE 2012• 1

Os artigos dos Textos para Discussão da Escola de Economia de São Paulo da Fundação Getulio Vargas são de inteira responsabilidade dos autores e não refletem necessariamente a opinião da

FGV-EESP. É permitida a reprodução total ou parcial dos artigos, desde que creditada a fonte.

Escola de Economia de São Paulo da Fundação Getulio Vargas FGV-EESP

(3)

❆♥á❧✐s❡ ❞❛ ❡str✉t✉r❛ ❞❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞ê♥❝✐❛ ❞❛ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐❞❛❞❡

❡♥tr❡ s❡t♦r❡s ❞✉r❛♥t❡ ❛ ❝r✐s❡ ❞♦ ❙✉❜♣r✐♠❡

❇r✉♥♦ P♦♥t❡s ❞❡ ❆rr✉❞❛

P❡❞r♦ ▲✉✐③ ❱❛❧❧s P❡r❡✐r❛

❈❊◗❊❋ ❡ ❊❊❙P✲❋●❱ ❈❊◗❊❋ ❡ ❊❊❙P✲❋●❱

✷ ❞❡ ❆❜r✐❧ ❞❡ ✷✵✶✷

❘❡s✉♠♦

❊st❡ ❡st✉❞♦ t❡st❛ ❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s❡ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦ ❡♥tr❡ s❡t♦r❡s ❞❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ ❞♦s ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s ❞✉r❛♥t❡ ❛ ❝r✐s❡ ❞♦ ❙✉❜♣r✐♠❡✳ ❆ ♠❡t♦❞♦❧♦❣✐❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠étr✐❝❛ ❜❛s❡✐❛✲s❡ ❡♠ ♠♦❞❡❧♦s ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛çõ❡s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛✐s ❞✐♥â♠✐❝❛s ❡ ♥❛ ❛♣❧✐❝❛çã♦ ❞❡ t❡st❡s ▲▼ r♦❜✉st♦s ♣❛r❛ t❡st❛r ❛ ♣r❡s❡♥ç❛ ❞❡ q✉❡❜r❛s ❡str✉t✉r❛✐s ♥❛ ❡str✉t✉r❛ ❞❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞ê♥❝✐❛ ❞❛s sér✐❡s✳ ❊✈❡♥t♦s ❝♦♥✲ s✐❞❡r❛❞♦s r❡❧❡✈❛♥t❡s ♣❛r❛ ♦ ❞❡s❢❡❝❤♦ ❞❛ ❝r✐s❡ ❞♦ ❙✉❜♣r✐♠❡✱ ❛ss✐♠ ❝♦♠♦ ✐♥t❡r❛çõ❡s ❡♥tr❡ ♠♦♠❡♥t♦s ❞❛s ♣ró♣r✐❛s sér✐❡s ❢♦r❛♠ ✉t✐❧✐③❛❞♦s ♣❛r❛ ✐❞❡♥t✐✜❝❛r ❛s q✉❡❜r❛s ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r❡ss❡✳ ❆ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝♦♥❝❧✉sã♦ ❞❡st❡ tr❛❜❛❧❤♦ é q✉❡ ❤♦✉✈❡ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦ r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞♦ ❛ ♣r❛t✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ t♦❞♦s ♦s ✐♥❞✐❝❛❞♦r❡s ❡♥tr❡ ♦s s❡t♦r❡s ❞♦s ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✳ ❉❡st❛ ❢♦r♠❛✱ t❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❛ ❡s✲ tr✉t✉r❛ ❞❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞ê♥❝✐❛ ❡♥tr❡ ♦s s❡t♦r❡s ❞❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ s✉♣r❛❝✐t❛❞❛ s❡ ❛❧t❡r♦✉ ♥♦ ❞❡❝♦rr❡r ❞♦s ❡✈❡♥t♦s ❞❡ ✷✵✵✼ ❡ ✷✵✵✽✳ ❙❡♥❞♦ ❛ss✐♠✱ ❛ ♣rát✐❝❛ ❞❡ ❞✐✈❡rs✐✜❝❛çã♦ ❞❡ ❝❛rt❡✐r❛s ❡✱ ❡♠ ❣❡r❛❧✱ t♦❞❛ ❛ ❛♥á❧✐s❡ ❞❡ r✐s❝♦ ✐♥❡r❡♥t❡ à ❣❡stã♦ ❞❡ ✐♥✈❡st✐♠❡♥t♦s ♣♦❞❡ t❡r s✐❞♦ ❞✐st♦r✲ ❝✐❞❛✱ ❧❡✈❛♥❞♦ ❣❡st♦r❡s ❡ ❢✉♥❞♦s à ❞❡❝✐sõ❡s ❡q✉✐✈♦❝❛❞❛s ❝♦♠ ❜❛s❡ ❡♠ s✉❛s ❧✐♠✐t❛çõ❡s ❡ ❞✐r❡tr✐③❡s ❞❡ ✐♥✈❡st✐♠❡♥t♦✳

❊s❝♦❧❛ ❞❡ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ ❞❡ ❙ã♦ P❛✉❧♦ ❡ ❈❡♥tr♦ ❞❡ ❊st✉❞♦s ◗✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈♦s ❡♠ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ ❡ ❋✐♥❛♥ç❛s✱ ❋●❱✱

❙ã♦ P❛✉❧♦✳ ❈♦♥t❛t♦✿ ❜r✉♥♦✳❛rr✉❞❛❅❣✈♠❛✐❧✳❜r✳

❊s❝♦❧❛ ❞❡ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ ❞❡ ❙ã♦ P❛✉❧♦ ❡ ❈❡♥tr♦ ❞❡ ❊st✉❞♦s ◗✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈♦s ❡♠ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ ❡ ❋✐♥❛♥ç❛s✱ ❋●❱✱

❙ã♦ P❛✉❧♦✳ ❈♦♥t❛t♦✿ ♣❡❞r♦✳✈❛❧❧s❅❢❣✈✳❜r✳

(4)

✶ ■♥tr♦❞✉çã♦

❆ ❝r❡s❝❡♥t❡ ✐♥t❡❣r❛çã♦ ❞♦s ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r♦s ❣❧♦❜❛✐s✱ ❛❧✐❛❞❛ à ✈❛st❛ ♠♦❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡ ❞❡ ❝❛♣✐t❛✐s ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞❛ ♥❛ ♠❛✐♦r✐❛ ❞❛s ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛s ❞❡s❡♥✈♦❧✈✐❞❛s✱ t❡♠ ❝r✐❛❞♦ ✐♥ú♠❡r♦s ❝❛♥❛✐s ❞❡ tr❛♥s♠✐s✲ sã♦ ❞❡ ❝❤♦q✉❡s ❡❝♦♥ô♠✐❝♦s✱ ❛♠♣❧✐❛♥❞♦ ❛ ✐♥t❡♥s✐❞❛❞❡ ❡ ❛ ár❡❛ ❞❡ ♣r♦♣❛❣❛çã♦ ❞❡ ❝r✐s❡s ✜♥❛♥✲ ❝❡✐r❛s✳ ❈♦♠♦ ✈✐st♦ ♥❛ r❡❝❡♥t❡ ❝r✐s❡ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r❛ ❣❧♦❜❛❧✱ q✉❡ t❡✈❡ s❡✉ ✐♥í❝✐♦ ♥❛ s❡❝✉r✐t✐③❛çã♦ ❞❡ tít✉❧♦s ❞❡ ❤✐♣♦té❝❛ ❞❡ ❛❧t♦ r✐s❝♦ ♥♦s ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ✉♠ ♥ú♠❡r♦ r❡❧❛t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡ ♣❡q✉❡♥♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❞✉t♦s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r♦s tr❛♥s❛❝✐♦♥❛❞♦s ❡♠ ✉♠ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❡s♣❡❝í✜❝♦ ♣♦❞❡ ❣❡r❛r ❡❢❡✐t♦s ❝❛t❛stró✲ ✜❝♦s ❡♠ ✈❛r✐á✈❡✐s ❡❝♦♥ô♠✐❝❛s r❡❛✐s ❞❡ ❞✐✈❡rs♦s ♣❛ís❡s t❡ór✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ ♥ã♦ r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞♦s ❝♦♠ ♦ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛ ❡♠ q✉❡stã♦✳

❙❡♥❞♦ ❛ss✐♠✱ ✉♠ tó♣✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❡①tr❡♠❛ r❡❧❡✈â♥❝✐❛ ♣❛r❛ ❛ ❛♥á❧✐s❡ ❞❡ ✐♥✈❡st✐♠❡♥t♦s é ♦ ♠❛♣❡❛✲ ♠❡♥t♦ ❞❛ ❡str✉t✉r❛ ❞❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞ê♥❝✐❛ ❡♥tr❡ ❛❣r✉♣❛♠❡♥t♦s ❞❡ ❛t✐✈♦s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r♦s✳ ❆ ♠❛✐♦r ♣❛rt❡ ❞❛ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❛ ❡①✐st❡♥t❡ s♦❜r❡ ❡st❡ ❢❡♥ô♠❡♥♦ s❡ ♣r♦♣õ❡ ❛ ♠❛♣❡❛r ❛ ❡str✉t✉r❛ ❞❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞ê♥✲ ❝✐❛ ❡♥tr❡ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s ❞❡ ♣❛ís❡s ❞✐st✐♥t♦s✱ t❡st❛♥❞♦ ❛ ♦❝♦rrê♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ♠✉❞❛♥ç❛s ✭❞❡❝♦rr❡♥❞❡t❡s ❞❡ ❝r✐s❡s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r❛s✮ ♥❡st❛ ❡str✉t✉r❛✳ ❊♥tr❡t❛♥t♦✱ ✉♠ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛ q✉❡ ♣❡r♠❛♥❡❝❡ ♣♦✉❝♦ ❡①♣❧♦r❛❞♦ ♥❛ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❛ ❞❡ ✜♥❛♥ç❛s ❞✐③ r❡s♣❡✐t♦ à ❡①✐stê♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ❝❛♥❛✐s ❞❡ ♣r♦♣❛❣❛çã♦ ❡♥tr❡ ❛❣r✉♣❛♠❡♥✲ t♦s ♠❡♥♦r❡s ❞❡ ❛t✐✈♦s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r♦s✳ ❖ ♣r❡s❡♥t❡ ❡st✉❞♦ ✈✐s❛ ♠❛♣❡❛r ❛ ❡str✉t✉r❛ ❞❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞ê♥❝✐❛ ❞❛ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐❞❛❞❡ ❡♥tr❡ s❡t♦r❡s ❞❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ ❞♦s ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s ❞✉r❛♥t❡ ❛ ❝r✐s❡ ❞♦ ❙✉❜♣r✐♠❡✳ ❆❧é♠ ❞✐ss♦✱ s❡rá t❡st❛❞❛ ❛q✉✐ ❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s❡ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦✱ q✉❡ s❡rá ♣r♦♣r✐❛♠❡♥t❡ ❞❡✜♥✐❞❛ ♥♦ q✉❡ s❡ s❡❣✉❡✳

❆ ❞é❝❛❞❛ ❞❡ ✾✵ ❡ ❛ ❞❡❝❛❞❛ q✉❡ s❡ s❡❣✉✐✉ ❢♦r❛♠ ♠❛r❝❛❞❛s ♣♦r ❞✐✈❡rs❛s ❝r✐s❡s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r❛s ❞❡ ♣r♦♣♦rçõ❡s ♠✉♥❞✐❛✐s✳ ◆♦ ❡♥t❛♥t♦✱ ❛♣❡s❛r ❞❛ ❞✐ss❡♠✐♥❛çã♦ ❞♦s ❡❢❡✐t♦s ♥❡❣❛t✐✈♦s ❞❡ t❛✐s ❡✈❡♥t♦s✱ ❛s ❝❛✉s❛s✱ ❡♠ ❣❡r❛❧✱ ❡r❛♠ r❡str✐t❛s ❛ ✉♠❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ ♦✉ ❜❧♦❝♦ ❡❝♦♥ô♠✐❝♦ r❡str✐t♦✳ ❈♦♠♦ ❡①❡♠♣❧♦s ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❝✐t❛r ❛s ❝r✐s❡s ❞♦ ▼é①✐❝♦ ❡♠ ✶✾✾✹✱ ❞❛ ❘úss✐❛ ❡♠ ✶✾✾✽✱ ❞❡ ❍♦♥❣ ❑♦♥❣ t❛♠❜é♠ ❡♠ ✶✾✾✽ ❡ ♦ ❝♦❧❛♣s♦ ❞♦ ❝✉rr❡♥❝② ❜♦❛r❞ ❛r❣❡♥t✐♥♦ ❡♠ ✷✵✵✶✳ ❚♦❞❛s ❡st❛s ❝r✐s❡s t✐✈❡r❛♠ s✉❛s ♦r✐❣❡♥s ❡♠ ✈❛r✐á✈❡✐s r❡❛✐s ♦✉ ✐♥str✉♠❡♥t♦s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r♦s ❡s♣❡❝í✜❝♦s ❞❡ ❝❛❞❛ ✉♠❛ ❞❛s r❡❣✐õ❡s ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r❡ss❡✳ ❊♥tr❡t❛♥t♦✱ ♦s ❡❢❡✐t♦s ❞❡st❡s ❝❤♦q✉❡s s❡ ❡s♣❛❧❤❛r❛♠ ♣♦r ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❝❛♣✐t❛✐s ♣r❡✈✐❛♠❡♥t❡ ❝♦♥s♦❧✐❞❛❞♦s✱ ❣❡r❛♥❞♦ ❛❜❛❧♦s ❡♠ ✈❛r✐á✈❡✐s ❡❝♦♥ô♠✐❝❛s ❞❡ ♣❛ís❡s ❞♦ ♠✉♥❞♦ t♦❞♦✳

❆♣❡s❛r ❞❛s ❞✐✈❡rs❛s ❝r✐s❡s s✉♣r❛❝✐t❛❞❛s✱ ❛❧❣✉♠❛s ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r✐❞❛❞❡s ❞❛ ❝r✐s❡ ❞♦ s✉❜♣r✐♠❡ ❛ t♦r♥❛♠ ♠✉✐t♦ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥t❡ ❞❛s ❞❡♠❛✐s✳ Pr✐♠❡✐r❛♠❡♥t❡✱ t❡♠♦s q✉❡ ♥ã♦ tr❛t♦✉✲s❡ ❞❡ ✉♠❛ ❜♦❧❤❛ ❡s✲ ♣❡❝✉❧❛t✐✈❛ ❝♦♠♦ ❛ ❝r✐s❡ ❞❡s❡♥❝❛❞❡❛❞❛ ♥♦ ✐♥í❝✐♦ ❞♦s ❛♥♦s ✷✵✵✵ ♥♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❞♦s ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s ✭❛ ❝❤❛♠❛❞❛ t❡❝❤ ❜✉❜❜❧❡✮✱ ♠❛s s✐♠ ❞❡ ✉♠❛ ❜♦❧❤❛ ❞❡ ❝ré❞✐t♦✳ ❆ s❡❝✉r✐t✐③❛çã♦ ❞❡ ❡♠♣rést✐♠♦s ❞❡ ❛❧t♦ r✐s❝♦ ❣❡r♦✉ ✐♥ú♠❡r♦s ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛s ❞❡ ♠♦r❛❧ ❤❛③❛r❞ q✉❡ ❛❝❛❜❛r❛♠ ♣♦r ♣♦st❡r❣❛r ♦ ❞❡s❢❡✲ ❝❤♦ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞♦ ❡♠ ✷✵✵✽✳ ❈♦♠ ✐ss♦ ❛ ❝♦♥✜❛♥ç❛ ♥❛ q✉❛❧✐❞❛❞❡ ❞♦ ❝ré❞✐t♦ ❞✐s♣♦♥í✈❡❧ ♥♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❞♦s ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s ✜❝♦✉ ❛❜❛❧❛❞♦✱ ❛ss✐♠ ❝♦♠♦ ❛ ❝♦♥✜❛♥ç❛ ❞♦s ✐♥✈❡st✐❞♦r❡s ❧♦❝❛✐s ❡ ✐♥t❡r♥❛✲ ❝✐♦♥❛✐s ♥❛ ❛✈❛❧✐❛çã♦ ❞❡ ❛t✐✈♦s ♣♦r ♣❛rt❡ ❞❛s ❛❣ê♥❝✐❛s ❞❡ r❛t✐♥❣✱ q✉❡ ♠♦str❛r❛♠✲s❡ ❞❡ ❝❡rt❛ ❢♦r♠❛ ❡①tr❡♠❛♠❡♥t❡ ❞❡❢❛s❛❞❛s ❡♠ r❡❧❛çã♦ ❛♦s r✉♠♦s q✉❡ ❛ ❝r✐s❡ ❡st❛✈❛ t♦♠❛♥❞♦✳

❆ ❧✐❣❛çã♦ ❞✐r❡t❛ ❡♥tr❡ ❛ ♦❢❡rt❛ ❞❡ ❝ré❞✐t♦ ❡ ❛s ♦♣çõ❡s ❞❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛♠❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ♦♣❡r❛çõ❡s ✭❡ ♣r♦❥❡t♦s✮ ❞❛s ❡♠♣r❡s❛s ❛t✉❛♥t❡s ♥♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❡♠ q✉❡stã♦ t❡♦r✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ ❞❡✈❡r✐❛ ❛❣r❛✈❛r ♦s ❡❢❡✐t♦s ❞❡ ✉♠❛ ❝r✐s❡ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r❛ ❝♦♠♦ ❡st❛✳ ❙❡♥❞♦ ❛ss✐♠✱ ❡s♣❡r❛✲s❡ q✉❡ s❡❥❛ ✈❡r✐✜❝❛❞❛ ❛❧❣✉♠❛ ♠✉❞❛♥ç❛ ♥❛ ❡str✉t✉r❛ ❞❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞ê♥❝✐❛ ❡♥tr❡ t♦❞♦s ♦s s❡t♦r❡s ❡ ♦ s❡t♦r ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r♦✱ r❡s♣♦♥sá✈❡❧ ♣♦r ♣r♦✈❡r ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛♠❡♥t♦ ♣❛r❛ ❛s ❞✐✈❡rs❛s ár❡❛s ❞❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛✳ P♦r ♦✉tr♦ ❧❛❞♦ ♦s s✐♠♣❧❡s ♠♦✈✐♠❡♥t♦s ❞❡ ❝♦♠♣r❛ ❡ ✈❡♥❞❛ ❞❡ ❛t✐✈♦s ♣♦r ♣❛rt❡ ❞♦s ✐♥✈❡st✐❞♦r❡s ♣♦❞❡♠ t❡r ❛❢❡t❛❞♦ ♦ r❡❢❡r✐❞♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦✱ s❡♠ ❛♣r❡s❡♥t❛r ♥❡♥❤✉♠❛ r❡❧❛çã♦ ❝♦♠ ♦s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t♦s ❞❛s ❡♠♣r❡s❛s ❡♠

(5)

q✉❡stã♦ ✭♣♦r ❡①❡♠♣❧♦ ♦s ♠♦✈✐♠❡♥t♦s ❞❡ ✜r❡s❛❧❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞♦s ❡♠ s❡t❡♠❜r♦ ❞❡ ✷✵✵✽✮✳ ❉❡st❛ ❢♦r♠❛ t❡♠♦s q✉❡ ♦ ♣❛❞rã♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♠♣♦rt❛♠❡♥t♦ ❡①✐❜✐❞♦ ♣♦r ❝❛❞❛ s❡t♦r ❞♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ♥ã♦ é tr✐✈✐❛❧✱ ❛ss✐♠ ❝♦♠♦ ♦s ❡❢❡✐t♦s ❣❡r❛❞♦s ❡♠ ♦✉tr♦s ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s ✐♥t❡r♥❛❝✐♦♥❛✐s✳ ❊st❡ ❡st✉❞♦ ❜✉s❝❛ ❡♥t❡♥❞❡r ❝♦♠♦ s❡ ❞❡✉ ❛ tr❛♥s♠✐ssã♦ ❞❡ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐❞❛❞❡ ❡♥tr❡ t❛✐s s❡t♦r❡s ❡ ♦s ♠♦t✐✈♦s ♣❡❧♦s q✉❛✐s ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦s ♣❛❞rõ❡s ♠♦str❛r❛♠✲s❡ ❞♦♠✐♥❛♥t❡s✳

✷ ❈♦♥tá❣✐♦ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡✐r♦

❆ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❛ ❡①✐st❡♥t❡ s♦❜r❡ tr❛♥s♠✐ssã♦ ❞❡ ❝❤♦q✉❡s ❞❡❝♦rr❡♥t❡s ❞❡ ❝r✐s❡s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r❛s tr❛t❛ ❛ ❛♥á❧✐s❡ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦ ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ❛♥á❧♦❣❛ à ❛♥á❧✐s❡ ❡♣✐❞❡♦♠♦❧ó❣✐❝❛✳ ❯♠ ❝❤♦q✉❡ ❡s♣❡❝í✜❝♦ ♣r♦♣❛❣❛✲s❡ ❝♦♠♦ ✉♠ ✈ír✉s✱ ❧❡✈❛♥❞♦ à ✉♠❛ ❡♣✐❞❡♠✐❛ ❞❡ ❡❢❡✐t♦s ♥❡❣❛t✐✈♦s ❞✐❢❡r❡♥t❡s ❞♦s q✉❡ s❡r✐❛♠ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞♦s ❡♠ ✉♠❛ s✐t✉❛çã♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦♣❛❣❛çã♦ ✏♥♦r♠❛❧✑ ❞❡ ❝❤♦q✉❡s✳ ❉❡st❛ ❢♦r♠❛✱ t❛✐s r❡s✉❧t❛♥t❡s ❡①❝❡❞❡♠ ❡♠ ♠❛❣♥✐t✉❞❡ ❡ ár❡❛ ❞❡ ♣r♦♣❛❣❛çã♦ à ♥❛t✉r❛❧ tr❛♥s♠✐ssã♦ ❞❡ ❝❤♦q✉❡s ✐♥❡r❡♥t❡ à ✐♥t❡❣r❛çã♦ ❞♦s ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r♦s✳ ❉✐✈❡rs❛s ❞❡✜♥✐çõ❡s ❞❡ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦ ♣♦❞❡♠ s❡r ❡♥❝♦♥tr❛❞❛s ♥❛ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❛ ❞❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠❡tr✐❛ ❞❡ ✜♥❛♥ç❛s✳ ◆❡st❡ ❡st✉❞♦✱ ❛ss✐♠ ❝♦♠♦ ❡♠ ❋r❛♥❦ ❡t ❛❧✳✭✷✵✵✽✮ ❡ ♦✉tr♦s✱ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦ s❡rá ❞❡✜♥✐❞♦ ❝♦♠♦ ✉♠❛ ♠✉❞❛♥ç❛ ❡str✉t✉r❛❧ ♥♦ ♠❡❝❛♥✐s♠♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦♣❛❣❛çã♦ ❞❡ ❝❤♦q✉❡s ❞❡❝♦rr❡♥t❡s ❞❡ ✉♠ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦ ❡✈❡♥t♦✱ ♦✉ ❣r✉♣♦ ❞❡ ❡♥✈❡♥t♦s✱ ❛ss♦✲ ❝✐❛❞♦s ❛ ✉♠❛ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞❛ ❝r✐s❡ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r❛✳ P❛r❛ t❡st❛r ❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s❡ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦ ❞✐r❡t❛♠❡♥t❡✱ s❡rã♦ ❛♣❧✐❝❛❞♦s t❡st❡s ❞❡ q✉❡❜r❛s ❡str✉t✉r❛✐s às sér✐❡s ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛çõ❡s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛✐s ❡st✐♠❛❞❛s ♣❛r❛ ❛s sér✐❡s ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r❡ss❡✳ ◗✉❛♥❞♦ ✈❡r✐✜❝❛❞♦ ❛❧❣✉♠ t✐♣♦ ❞❡ q✉❡❜r❛ ❡str✉t✉r❛❧ ❞❡❝♦rr❡♥t❡ ❞❛ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛çã♦ ❝♦♥t✐❞❛ ♥❛s sér✐❡s ✐♥❞✐❝❛❞♦r❛s ✭q✉❡ s❡rã♦ ♣r♦♣r✐❛♠❡♥t❡ ❞❡✜♥✐❞❛s ♥❛ s❡çã♦ ✸✱ ♠❛s q✉❡ ❡♠ ❧✐♥❤❛s ❣❡r❛✐s ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞❡♠ ❛ ✐♥❞✐❝❛❞♦r❡s ❞❡ ❝r✐s❡ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r❛✮ s❡rá ❝♦♥✜r♠❛❞❛ ❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s❡ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦✳

✷✳✶ ❈♦♥tá❣✐♦ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡✐r♦ ❊♥tr❡ ❙❡t♦r❡s

Pr✐♠❡✐r❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ❆♥❞❡rs♦♥ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✶✵✮ ❛♣r❡s❡♥t❛♠ ✉♠ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❞❡ ♠✉❞❛♥ç❛ ❞❡ r❡❣✐♠❡s ♣❛r❛ ♠♦❞❡❧❛r ❛ ♣r♦♣❛❣❛çã♦ ❞❛ ❜♦❧❤❛ ❞♦ s❡t♦r ❞❡ t❡❝♥♦❧♦❣✐❛ ❢♦r♠❛❞❛ ❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ ✶✾✾✵✳ ❉✐❢❡r✲ ❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡ ❞❛ ❝r✐s❡ ❞♦ s✉❜♣r✐♠❡✱ ❛ ❝r✐s❡ ❡♠ q✉❡stã♦ ✭q✉❡ t❡✈❡ s❡✉ ❝♦❧❛♣s♦ ♥♦ ❛♥♦ ✷✵✵✵✮ é ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛❞❛ ✉♠❛ ❜♦❧❤❛ ❡s♣❝✉❧❛t✐✈❛✳ ❖s ❛✉t♦r❡s ✐❞❡♥t✐✜❝❛♠ ❜♦❧❤❛s ❡s♣❡❝✉❧❛t✐✈❛s ❡♠ ♠❛✐s ❞❡ ✼✵✪ ❞♦s ❛t✐✈♦s ❛♥❛❧✐s❛❞♦s ✭♠♦♥t❛♥t❡ ❜❡♠ s✉♣❡r✐♦r ❛♦ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ❛t✐✈♦s ❞✐r❡t❛♠❡♥t❡ r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞♦s ❝♦♠ ♦ s❡t♦r ❞❡ t❡❝♥♦❧♦❣✐❛✮✳ ❉❡st❛ ❢♦r♠❛✱ ❝♦♥❝❧✉❡♠ q✉❡ ❛ ❣r❛♥❞❡ ♠❛✐♦r✐❛ ❞♦s s❡t♦r❡s ❞❡ ✉♠❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ ♣❛ss❛♠✲s❡ ❛ ❝♦♠♣♦rt❛r ❞❡ ♠❛♥❡✐r❛ s❡♠❡❧❤❛♥t❡ ♥❛ ♣r❡s❡♥ç❛ ❞❡ ✉♠❛ ❜♦❧❤❛ ❡s♣❡❝✉❧❛t✐✈❛✱ ♠❡s♠♦ q✉❡ ❡st❛ s❡❥❛ r❡str✐t❛ ❛ ✉♠ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦ s❡t♦r✳ ❖s ❛✉t♦r❡s ❛✐♥❞❛ ❛tr✐❜✉❡♠ ❡st❡ ❢❡♥ô♠❡♥♦ ❛♦ ❢❛t♦ ❞❡ ❛♣❡♥❛s ❛❧❣✉♥s s❡t♦r❡s ❞❡ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ✉t✐❧✐③❛r❡♠ ♠♦❞❡❧♦s ❞❡ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞♦s ♣❛r❛ ♣r❡❝✐✜❝❛r ♦s ❛t✐✈♦s ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r❡ss❡✳ ❉✐✈❡rs♦s ❛rt✐❣♦s ❡ ❧✐✈r♦s t❡①t♦ ♥❛ ár❡❛ ❞❡ ✈❛❧✉❛t✐♦♥✱ ❡✳❣✳ ❑♦❧❧❡r ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✶✵✮ ✉t✐❧✐③❛♠ ❛ ❝r✐s❡ ❞❡ ✷✵✵✵ ❝♦♠♦ ❡①❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ♠á ❛✈❛❧✐❛çã♦ ❞❡ ❡♠♣r❡s❛s✿ ♣♦r s❡ tr❛t❛r ❞❡ ✉♠ s❡t♦r ❡♥❢r❡♥t❛♥❞♦ ✉♠ ❝r❡s❝✐♠❡♥t♦ s❡♠ ♣r❡❝❡❞❡♥t❡s✱ ♥ã♦ é r❛③♦á✈❡❧ ♣r♦❥❡t❛r ❝r❡s❝✐♠❡♥t♦s ❞❡ ✈❡♥❞❛s ❡ r❡t♦r♥♦s s♦❜r❡ ✐♥✈❡st✐♠❡♥t♦ ♥✉♥❝❛ ❛♥t❡s ✈✐st♦s ❡♠ ♥❡♥❤✉♠ s❡t♦r ❞❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛✳ ❆❧é♠ ❞✐ss♦✱ é ❛✐♥❞❛ ♠❡♥♦s r❛③♦á✈❡❧ ✐♥❝❧✉✐r q✉❛❧q✉❡r ✐♥❢♦r✲ ♠❛çã♦ ♦✉ sér✐❡ ❞❡r✐✈❛❞❛ ❞❡st❡ s❡t♦r ❝♦♠♦ ❞r✐✈❡r ❞❡ ❝r❡s❝✐♠❡♥t♦ ✭♦✉ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦✮ ❡♠ ♠♦❞❡❧♦s ❞❡ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞♦s ♣❛r❛ ❛✈❛❧✐❛çã♦ ❞❡ ♦✉tr♦s s❡t♦r❡s✳ ❆ss✐♠✱ ❛ ❝♦♥❝❧✉sã♦ ❞♦s ❛✉t♦r❡s é q✉❡ ♥ã♦ ❤♦✉✈❡ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦ ❞❡❝♦rr❡♥t❡ ❞♦ ❝r❛s❤ ❞❡ ✷✵✵✵✳ ❊♥tr❡t❛♥t♦✱ ❛ ♣r♦♣❛❣❛çã♦ ❞❡ ❡❢❡✐t♦s ♥❡❣❛t✐✈♦s s❡ ❞❡✉ ♣♦r ♠❡✐♦ ❞❛ tr❛♥s♠✐ssã♦ ❞❛ ❜♦❧❤❛ ♣♦r ♠❡✐♦ ❞❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t♦s ❞♦s ❞❡♠❛✐s ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s✳

(6)

❈♦✉❞❡rt ✫ ●❡① ✭✷✵✶✵✮ ❛tr✐❜✉❡♠ ❛ tr❛♥s♠✐ssã♦ ❞❡ ❝❤♦q✉❡s ❞❡♥tr♦ ❞❡ ✉♠❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ ❛♦ s❡t♦r ❞❡ ❝ré❞✐t♦❀ ❡♠ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r à ❞❡r✐✈❛t✐✈♦s✳ ❚❡♥❞♦ ❡♠ ✈✐st❛ ❛ s❡q✉ê♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ❡✈❡♥t♦s ♦❝♦rr✐❞♦s ♥❛ ❝r✐s❡ ❞♦ s✉❜♣r✐♠❡✱ ♦s ❛✉t♦r❡s ❛❝r❡❞✐t❛♠ q✉❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦s ❝❤♦q✉❡s✱ ❝♦♠♦ ❛ ❝r✐s❡ ♥♦s ♣rê♠✐♦s ❞❡ r✐s❝♦ ❞❛s ♠♦♥t❛❞♦r❛s ●❡♥❡r❛❧ ▼♦t♦rs ❡ ❋♦r❞ ♦❝♦rr✐❞❛ ❡♠ ✷✵✵✺✱ ✐♥✐❝✐❛♠ ✉♠ ❡❢❡✐t♦ ❝❛s❝❛t❛ ♥♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❈r❡❞✐t ❉❡❢❛✉❧t ❙✇❛♣s ✭❈❉❙✮ q✉❡ s❡ ♣r♦♣❛❣❛♠ ♣❛r❛ ❢✉♥❞♦s ❞❡ ♣❡♥sã♦✱ ❤❡❞❣❡ ❢✉♥❞s ❡ ✐♥st✐t✉✐çõ❡s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r❛s ❡♠ ❣❡r❛❧✱ q✉❡ ♣♦r s✉❛ ✈❡③ tr❛♥s♠✐t❡♠ t❛✐s ❝❤♦q✉❡s ♣❛r❛ ♦s ✐♥✈❡st✐❞♦r❡s ❡✱ ❡♠ ú❧t✐♠❛ ✐♥stâ♥❝✐❛✱ ❞✐r❡t❛♠❡♥t❡ ♣❛r❛ ❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ r❡❛❧✳ ❯♠ ❛♥ú♥❝✐♦ ❞❡ ♣❡r❞❛s ♣♦r ♣❛rt❡ ❞❡ ✉♠❛ ❝♦♠♣❛♥✐❛ ❞❡ ❣r❛♥❞❡ ♣♦rt❡ ♣♦❞❡ ❧❡✈❛r ✭❡ ❧❡✈♦✉ ♥♦ ❝❛s♦ ❞❛ ❝r✐s❡ ❞♦ s✉❜♣r✐♠❡✮ ❛❣ê♥❝✐❛s ❞❡ r❛t✐♥❣ ❛ r❡❜❛✐①❛r ♥♦t❛s ♥♦s ❈❉❙✳ ❆ ❜❛✐①❛ r❡❣✉❧❛çã♦ ❞♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ s❡❝✉♥❞ár✐♦ ❞❡ t❛✐s ♣r♦❞✉t♦s ♣❡r♠✐t❡ às ❝♦♠♣❛♥✐❛s ❞❡ s❡❣✉r♦s s❡ ❛❧❛✈❛♥❝❛r❡♠ ❞✐✈❡rs❛s ✈❡③❡s ♥♦s ❡♠♣rést✐♠♦s r❡❛❧✐③❛❞♦s✱ ♥❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❡♠ q✉❡ ❢✉♥❞♦s ❞❡ ✐♥✈❡st✐♠❡♥t♦ tr❛t❛♠ t❛✐s ❝♦♥tr❛t♦s ❝♦♠♦ ✐♥str✉♠❡♥t♦s ❞❡ ❣❛♠❜❧✐♥❣✳ ❉❡st❛ ❢♦r♠❛✱ ❝♦♠♦ ✈❡r✐✜❝❛❞♦ ♣❡❧♦s ❛✉t♦r❡s✱ q✉❡ ✐❞❡♥t✐✜❝❛♠ ✉♠ ❛✉♠❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ✶✵✵✪ ♥♦ ♣rê♠✐♦ ❞❡ r✐s❝♦ ❞♦ í♥❞✐❝❡ ❞♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❈❉❙✱ ✉♠ ❝❤♦q✉❡ ❜❛st❛♥t❡ ❡s♣❡❝í✜❝♦ ♣♦❞❡ s❡r tr❛♥s♠✐t✐❞♦ ❞❡ ♠❛♥❡✐r❛ rá♣✐❞❛ ❡ ✐♥t❡♥s❛ ❛ t♦❞♦ ♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❞❡r✐✈❛t✐✈♦s ❞❡ ❝ré❞✐t♦✳

❆✐♥❞❛ ❝♦♠ r❡s♣❡✐t♦ à tr❛♥s♠✐ssã♦ ❞❡ ❝❤♦q✉❡s ✈✐❛ ✐♥str✉♠❡♥t♦s ❞❡ ❝ré❞✐t♦✱ ❏♦r✐♦♥ ✫ ❩❤❛♥❣ ✭✷✵✵✾✮ ❛✐♥❞❛ ❛♣♦♥t❛♠ ♣❛r❛ ❡✈❡♥t♦s ❝♦♠♦ ♦ ❞❛ ●❡♥❡r❛❧ ▼♦t♦rs ❝♦♠♦ tr✐❣❣❡rs ❞❡ ❛✉♠❡♥t♦s ❡♠ ❝♦✉♥t❡r♣❛rt② r✐s❦s ♣❛r❛ ❞✐✈❡rs♦s s❡t♦r❡s✱ ♥❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❡♠ q✉❡ ❤á ♠✉❞❛♥ç❛s ♥❛s ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐✈❛s ❞♦s ✐♥✈❡st✐❞♦r❡s ✭❞♦ t✐♣♦ ✇❛❦❡ ✉♣ ❝❛❧❧s✱ r❡s✉❧t❛♥t❡s ❞❡ ♣♦ssí✈❡✐s ❞♦✇♥❣r❛❞❡s ♣♦r ♣❛rt❡ ❞❡ ❛❣ê♥❝✐❛s ❞❡ r❛t✐♥❣ ❝♦♠♦ ♦s ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞♦s ♥♦s ❡✈❡♥t♦s s✉♣r❛❝✐t❛❞♦s✮✳ ❚❛♠❜é♠ é ♣♦ssí✈❡❧ q✉❡ t❛✐s ✇❛❦❡ ✉♣ ❝❛❧❧s ❞❡s❡♥❝❛❞❡✐❡♠ ❡❢❡✐t♦s ♠❛♥❛❞❛ ♣♦r ♣❛rt❡ ❞❡ ✐♥✈❡st✐❞♦r❡s✳ ❊st❛ ❡①♣❧✐❝❛çã♦ ♣♦❞❡ ❛té s❡r ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛❞❛ ♣❧❛✉sí✈❡❧ ♥♦ ❝❛s♦ ❞❡ ✐♥✈❡st✐❞♦r❡s ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛✐s✱ ❡♥tr❡t❛♥t♦ ♦ ✐♠♣❛❝t♦ ❞❡st❡s s♦❜r❡ ♦s ♣r❡ç♦s ❞❡ ❛t✐✈♦s ♥ã♦ s❡r✐❛ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥t❡✱ ❛✐♥❞❛ ♠❛✐s ♥♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ s❡❝✉♥❞ár✐♦ ❞❡ ❈❉❙✳

P❤②❧❛❦t✐s ✫ ❳✐❛ ✭✷✵✶✶✮ ✐❞❡♥t✐✜❝❛♠ ❛ ❡str✉t✉r❛ ❞❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞ê♥❝✐❛ ❞♦s s❡t♦r❡s ❞❡ ❞✐✈❡rs❛s ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛s ❝♦♠ í♥❞✐❝❡s ❞❡ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❞♦s ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✳ ❖s ❛✉t♦r❡s ♠♦str❛♠ q✉❡ ♦s s❡t♦r❡s ❞❛s ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛s ❛s✐át✐❝❛s✱ ❡♠ ❣❡r❛❧✱ sã♦ ♠❛✐s ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞♦s ❝♦♠ ♦ ❞❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦ ❞❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ ❞♦s ❊❯❆✳ ❊♠ ❝♦♥tr❛♣❛rt✐❞❛✱ ♦s ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s ❞❛ ❆♠ér✐❝❛ ▲❛t✐♥❛ ♠♦str❛♠✲s❡ ♠❛✐s ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥t❡s ❞❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ ❧♦❝❛❧✱ ✐✳❡✳ sã♦ ♠❛✐s ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞♦s ❝♦♠ ♦ í♥❞✐❝❡ r❡❣✐♦♥❛❧ ❞❡ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦✳ ❖s ❛✉t♦r❡s ❛✐♥❞❛ ✐❞❡♥t✐✜❝❛♠ s❡t♦r❡s q✉❡ sã♦ ♥❛t✉r❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ♠❛✐s ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥t❡s ❞❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ ❞♦♠ést✐❝❛✱ ❡✳❣✳ s❡t♦r ❞❡ ❜❡♥s ❞❡ ❝♦♥s✉♠♦❀ ❡ s❡t♦r❡s q✉❡ sã♦ ♠❛✐s ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥t❡s ❞❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ ♠✉♥❞✐❛❧✱ ❡✳❣✳ s❡t♦r ❞❡ t❡❝♥♦❧♦❣✐❛✳

✷✳✶✳✶ ❉✐✈❡rs✐✜❝❛çã♦ ♥❛ Pr❡s❡♥ç❛ ❞❡ ❈♦♥tá❣✐♦ ❡♥tr❡ ❙❡t♦r❡s

❚r❛❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ ❛ ❢♦r♠✉❧❛çã♦ ❞❡ ♣♦rt❢ó❧✐♦s ❝♦♥t❡♥❞♦ ❛t✐✈♦s ❞❡ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥t❡s ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s t❡♠ s✐❞♦ ✉♠❛ ❡str❛té❣✐❛ ❜❡♠ s✉❝❡❞✐❞❛ ❞❡ ❞✐✈❡rs✐✜❝❛çã♦✱ ❞✐♠✐♥✉✐❞♦ ♦ r✐s❝♦ ❞❡ ❝❛rt❡✐r❛s ❛ ♥✐✈❡✐s ❛❜❛✐①♦ ❞♦ r✐s❝♦ s✐stê♠✐❝♦ ❞❡ ✉♠❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛✳ ❊st✉❞♦s ❝♦♠♦ ▲❡ss❛r❞ ✭✶✾✼✹✮✱ ❍❡st♦♥ ✫ ❘♦✉✇❡♥✲ ❤♦rst ✭✶✾✾✺✮ ❡ ●r✐✣♥ ✫ ❑❛r♦❧②✐ ✭✶✾✾✽✮ ❛♣♦♥t❛♠ ♣❛r❛ ❝♦✉♥tr② ❡✛❡❝ts ❝♦♠♦ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣❛✐s ❞r✐✈❡rs ♣❛r❛ ♠♦✈✐♠❡♥t♦s ❞❡ ♣r❡ç♦ ❞❡ ❛t✐✈♦s ❡♠ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥t❡s ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s✳ ❆ss✐♠✱ ❣❡st♦r❡s t✐♥❤❛♠ ✐♥❝❡♥✲ t✐✈♦ ♣❛r❛ ❢♦r♠✉❧❛r ❝❛rt❡✐r❛s ♠✉❧t✐♠❡r❝❛❞♦s✳ ❊♥tr❡t❛♥t♦✱ ❛❧❣✉♥s ❡st✉❞♦s ♠❛✐s r❡❝❡♥t❡s ❝♦♠♦ ❋❧❛✈✐♥ ✭✷✵✵✹✮✱ ❇r♦♦❦s ✫ ❉❡❧ ◆❡❣r♦ ✭✷✵✵✹✮ ❡ P❤②❧❛❦t✐s ✫ ❳✐❛ ✭✷✵✵✻❛✱ ✷✵✵✻❜✮ ❛♣♦♥t❛♠ ♣❛r❛ ✉♠❛ r❡❝❡♥t❡ ✐♥✈❡rsã♦ ❞❡ ♣❛♣❡✐s ♥♦s ❞r✐✈❡rs ❡♠ q✉❡stã♦✳ ❊✈✐❞ê♥❝✐❛s ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛s ❛♣r❡s❡♥t❛❞❛s ❡♠ t❛✐s ❡st✉❞♦s ♠♦str❛♠ q✉❡ ❡❢❡✐t♦s ❡♠ ♥í✈❡❧ ❞❡ ✐♥❞✉str✐❛ ✐♥❞✉str✐❛❧ ❡✛❡❝ts✱ tê♠ s✐❞♦ ♠❛✐s r❡❧❡✈❛♥t❡s ♣❛r❛ ♣r❡✈❡r ✢✉t✉❛çõ❡s ❡♠ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r♦s ❞♦ q✉❡ ♦s ❝♦✉♥tr② ❡✛❡❝ts ✉s✉❛❧✲

(7)

♠❡♥t❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛❞♦s r❡s♣♦♥sá✈❡✐s ♣♦r ♠♦✈✐♠❡♥t♦s ♥♦s ♣r❡ç♦s ❞♦s ❛t✐✈♦s✳ ❙❡♥❞♦ ❛ss✐♠✱ ✉♠ ♣♦♦❧ ❡✜❝❛③ ❞❡ ❞✐✈❡rs✐✜❝❛çã♦ ❞❡ ♣♦rt❢ó❧✐♦s ♣♦❞❡ s❡r ❡♥❝♦♥tr❛❞♦ ❞❡♥tr♦ ❞❡ ✉♠ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦✳ ❊♥tr❡t❛♥t♦✱ ❛ss✐♠ ❝♦♠♦ ♥♦t❛❞♦ ❡♠ ❞✐✈❡rs♦s ❡st✉❞♦s✱ ♦s r✐s❝♦s ❞❛ ❞✐✈❡rs✐✜❝❛çã♦ ❡♥tr❡ ♣❛ís❡s ❡♥❝♦♥tr❛♠ s❡✉ ♣❛r r❡❣✐♦♥❛❧✳

✷✳✶✳✷ ❈❛♥❛✐s ❞❡ ❚r❛♥s♠✐ssã♦

❯♠ tó♣✐❝♦ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡ ♥❛ ❛♥á❧✐s❡ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦ é ❛ ✐❞❡♥t✐✜❝❛çã♦ ❞♦ ❝❛♥❛❧ ❞❡ ♣r♦♣❛❣❛çã♦✱ ♦✉ ✈❡t♦r ❞❡ tr❛♥s♠✐ssã♦✱ ❞♦s ❝❤♦q✉❡s ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r❡ss❡✳ ❊①✐st❡♠ ❞✐✈❡rs♦s ❝❛♥❛✐s ♣♦ssí✈❡✐s✱ ♠❛s ❛❧✲ ❣✉♠❛s t❡♦r✐❛s ♠♦str❛♠✲s❡ ♠❛✐s ❜❡♠ ❡str✉t✉r❛❞❛s q✉❡ ♦✉tr❛s✱ ❢♦r♠❛♥❞♦ ❞❡ ❝❡rt❛ ❢♦r♠❛ ✉♠ ♣♦♦❧ ❞❡ ♣♦ss✐❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s ❣❡r❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ❛❝❡✐t♦s ❝♦♠♦ tr❛♥s♠✐ss♦r❡s ❞❡ ❡❢❡✐t♦s ♥❡❣❛t✐✈♦s✳ ❋♦r❜❡s ✫ ❘✐❣♦❜♦♥ ✭✷✵✵✷✮ ❡♥✉♠❡r❛♠ ❞✐✈❡rs♦s ❝❛♥❛✐s ❞❡ tr❛♥s♠✐ssã♦ ❞❡ ❝❤♦q✉❡s ❝♦♠♦ ❛❧t❡r❛çõ❡s ❡♠ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t♦s ♠❛❝r♦❡❝♦♥ô♠✐❝♦s✱ ❝r✐s❡s ❞❡ ❧✐q✉✐❞❡③ ❡ ❢❛t♦r❡s ❝♦♠♣♦rt❛♠❡♥t❛✐s ❞♦s ✐♥✈❡st✐❞♦r❡s✳ ❖✉tr❛ ✈❡rt❡♥t❡ ❞❛ ❛♥á❧✐s❡ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛ q✉❡ ♦s ♣r✐♥❝✐♣❛✐s ❝❛♥❛✐s ❞❡ ♣r♦♣❛❣❛çã♦ ❞❡r✐✈❛♠ ❞✐r❡t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛s ❞❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛çã♦✱ ❛❢❡t❛♥❞♦ ✐♥❞✐r❡t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛✳ ❊♥tr❡ ❡st❡s ♠♦❞❡❧♦s✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s s❛❧✐❡♥t❛r ❛q✉❡❧❡s q✉❡ tr❛t❛♠ ❞❛ ❡①✐stê♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ❡q✉✐❧í❜r✐♦s ♠✉❧t✐♣❧♦s✱ ❡ ❛♣♦♥t❛♠ ♣❛r❛ ♦s ❝❤❛♠❛❞♦s s✉♥s♣♦ts ❝♦♠♦ r❡s♣♦♥sá✈❡✐s ♣♦r ✐♥❞✉③✐r ♠✉❞❛♥ç❛s ❞❡ ❡st❛❞♦ ♣♦r ♠❡✐♦ ❞❛ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐✈❛ ❞❡ ✐♥✈❡st✐❞♦r❡s ♦✉ ❛✉t♦r✐❞❛❞❡s ♠♦♥❡tár✐❛s✳ ❑✐♥❣ ✫ ❲❛❞❤✇❛♥✐ ✭✶✾✾✵✮ ❞❡s❡♥✈♦❧✈❡♠ ✉♠ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❡♠ q✉❡ ❝❤♦q✉❡s sã♦ tr❛♥s♠✐t✐❞♦s ❡♥tr❡ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s ♥❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❡♠ q✉❡ ✐♥✈❡st✐❞♦r❡s r❛❝✐♦♥❛✐s ♦❜s❡r✈❛♠ ❡❢❡✐t♦s ❞❡ ❝❤♦q✉❡s ❡♠ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s ✐♥t❡r♥❛❝✐♦♥❛✐s ❡ t❡♥t❛♠ ❡①tr❛✐r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛çõ❡s r❡❧❡✈❛♥t❡s ♣❛r❛ ♦ ♣r❡ç♦ ❞♦s ❛t✐✈♦s ♥❡❣♦❝✐❛❞♦s ❡♠ s❡✉ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❞♦♠ést✐❝♦✳ ❊st❡ ❡st✉❞♦ ❡stá r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞♦ ❝♦♠ ❛❧❣✉♥s ♦✉tr♦s q✉❡ ♣♦st✉❧❛♠ q✉❡ ❛ ❝❤❡❣❛❞❛ ❞❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛çã♦ ♣♦❞❡ ❧❡✈❛r ❛♦ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦ ❡♥tr❡ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s ♣♦r ♠❡✐♦ ❞❡ r❡❜❛❧❛♥❝❡❛♠❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ❝❛rt❡✐r❛s ❞❡ ✐♥✈❡s✲ t✐♠❡♥t♦✳ ▼❛ss♦♥ ✭✶✾✾✽✮ ❛♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ✉♠ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❞❡ ❜❛❧❛♥ç♦ ❞❡ ♣❛❣❛♠❡♥t♦s q✉❡ ♣♦❞❡ ❧❡✈❛r ❛ ❡①✐stê♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ♠ú❧t✐♣❧♦s ❡q✉✐❧í❜r✐♦s✳ ❊♠ ▼❛ss♦♥ ✭✶✾✾✾✮ ♦ ❛✉t♦r ❛✐♥❞❛ ❛♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ✉♠❛ ❜r❡✈❡ r❡✈✐sã♦ ❞❛ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❛ ❞❡st❛ ❝❧❛ss❡ ❞❡ ♠♦❞❡❧♦s✱ ❡①♣❧♦r❛♥❞♦ ♦s ♠❡✐♦s ♣❡❧♦s q✉❛✐s ♦s ❝❤❛♠❛❞♦s s✉♥s♣♦ts ♣♦❞❡♠ ❛❧t❡r❛r ♦s ❡q✉✐❧í❜r✐♦s ❞❡ ✉♠❛ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛✳

❉✐✈❡rs♦s ❡st✉❞♦s ❛tr✐❜✉❡♠ ❛ tr❛♥s♠✐ssã♦ ❞❡ ❝r✐s❡s ❡♥tr❡ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r♦s ❛ ♣r♦❜❧❡✲ ♠❛s ❞❡ ❧✐q✉✐❞❡③ ❡♥❢r❡♥t❛❞♦s ♣♦r ✐♥✈❡st✐❞♦r❡s ✐♥st✐t✉❝✐♦♥❛✐s q✉❡ ♣♦ss✉❡♠ ❛t✐✈♦s ❡♠ ❞✐✈❡rs♦s ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s✳ ❉❡st❛ ❢♦r♠❛✱ ♥❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❡♠ q✉❡ ♦❝♦rr❡♠ ♣❡r❞❛s ❡♠ ✉♠ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦✱ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣❛❧♠❡♥t❡ tr❛t❛♥❞♦✲s❡ ❞❡ ♣❡r❞❛s s♦❜r❡ ♣♦s✐çõ❡s ❛❧❛✈❛♥❝❛❞❛s✱ ✐♥✈❡st✐❞♦r❡s ♣r❡❝✐s❛♠ ❧❡✈✲ ❛♥t❛r ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ ❡♠ ♦✉tr♦s ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s ♣❛r❛ ❧✐q✉✐❞❛r s✉❛s ♦❜r✐❣❛çõ❡s✳ ❙❡ ❡st❡ ♠♦✈✐♠❡♥t♦ ❢♦r ✐♥t❡♥s♦✱ t❡♠♦s q✉❡ ♦s ❛t✐✈♦s ❛❢❡t❛❞♦s ♥♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ♣r♦✈❡❞♦r ❞❡ ❧✐q✉✐❞❡③ s♦❢r❡rã♦ ♣❡r❞❛s ❞❡ ✈❛❧♦r✳ ❙❡ ❡st❡ ❢❡♥ó♠❡♥♦ ❢♦r s✉✜❝✐❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡ ❣r❛♥❞❡✱ t❡♠♦s q✉❡ t❛❧ ❝r✐s❡ ❞❡ ❧✐q✉✐❞❡③ ♣♦❞❡ s❡r ❡♥t❡♥❞✐❞❛ ❝♦♠♦ ✉♠ ❝❤♦q✉❡ s✐stê♠✐❝♦✳ ❑✐②♦t❛❦✐ ✫ ▼♦♦r❡ ✭✷✵✵✷✮ ❛♣r❡s❡♥t❛♠ ✉♠ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ♣❡❧♦ q✉❛❧ ♣❡r❞❛s ❡♠ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r♦s sã♦ tr❛♥s♠✐t✐❞♦s ❛♦ ❜❛❧❛♥ç♦ ❞❡ ❡♠♣r❡s❛s q✉❡ ❞❡té♠ t❛✐s ❛t✐✈♦s✳ ❉❡st❛ ❢♦r♠❛✱ t❡rí❛♠♦s ✉♠ ❝❛♥❛❧ ❞✐r❡t♦ ❞❡ tr❛♥s♠✐ssã♦✱ s❡♥❞♦ ✉♠ ❡❢❡✐t♦ ❞♦ t✐♣♦ ♠❛r❦❡t✲t♦✲❜♦♦❦✳

❆❧❧❡♥ ✫ ●❛❧❡ ✭✷✵✵✵✮ ❞❡s❡♥✈♦❧✈❡♠ ✉♠ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ♠✐❝r♦❡❝♦♥ô♠✐❝♦ ♣❛r❛ ❡①♣❧✐❝❛r ♦ ❢❡♥ó♠❡♥♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r♦ ❛tr❛✈és ❞❛ ❧✐q✉✐❞❛çã♦ ❞❡ ♣♦s✐çõ❡s ♣♦r ♣❛rt❡ ❞❡ ❜❛♥❝♦s✳✶ ◆❡st❡ ♠♦❞❡❧♦✱

❖s ❛✉t♦r❡s ❛ss✉♠❡♠ q✉❡ ♥ã♦ ❤á ❛ss✐♠❡tr✐❛ ❞❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛çã♦ ❡♥tr❡ ♦s ❛❣❡♥t❡s ❞❡ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s ❞✐st✐♥t♦s✱ ❡♥❢❛t✐✲

③❛♥❞♦ ❛ ✐♠♣♦rtâ♥❝✐❛ ❞❛ s✉♣♦s✐çã♦ ❞❡ ❡✜❝✐ê♥❝✐❛ ✭✐♥❢♦r♠❛❝✐♦♥❛❧✱ ♦✉ ❢r❛❝❛✮ ❞♦s ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r❡ss❡✳ ❙❡♠ ❡st❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s❡✱ t❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❝❤♦q✉❡s ♥❡❣❛t✐✈♦s ❡♠ ✉♠ ❛t✐✈♦ ♣♦❞❡♠ ❢♦r♥❡❝❡r ✐♥❢♦r♠❛çã♦ r❡❧❡✈❛♥t❡ ♣❛r❛ ❛ ♣r❡✈✐sã♦ ❞❡ ♣r❡ç♦ ❞❡ ♦✉tr♦s ❛t✐✈♦s✳ ❙❡♥❞♦ ❛ss✐♠✱ ♦ ❝❤♦q✉❡ s❡r✐❛ tr❛♥s♠✐t✐❞♦ ♣♦r ❝♦♥t❛ ❞❛s r❡❢♦r♠✉❧❛çõ❡s r❡s✉❧t❛♥t❡s✱ s❡♥❞♦ ❛ss✐♠ ✐♠♣♦ssí✈❡❧ ❞❡ ✐s♦❧❛r ♦ ❡❢❡✐t♦ ❞♦ ❝❤♦q✉❡ ❞❡ ❧✐q✉✐❞❡③ s♦❜r❡ ♦s ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r❡ss❡✳

(8)

s❡♠♣r❡ q✉❡ ♦s ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s ✐♥t❡r❜❛♥❝ár✐♦s sã♦ ✐♥❝♦♠♣❧❡t♦s ❡ ❛ ❞❡♣❡♥ê♥❝✐❛ ♣ré✈✐❛ é ❛❧t❛✱ ♦ ❡q✉✐✲ ❧í❜r✐♦ ❞♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛ ❡♠ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦✱ ✉♠❛ ✈❡③ q✉❡ ♦s ❜❛♥❝♦s ♥ã♦ ♣♦❞❡♠ tr❛♥s❢❡r✐r ❞❡♣ós✐t♦s ❡♥tr❡ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s✳ ❙❡♥❞♦ ❛ss✐♠✱ ❛♦ ❡♥❢r❡♥t❛r❡♠ ♣❡r❞❛s ❡♠ ✉♠ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦✱ ♣r❡❝✐s❛♠ ❧✐q✉✐❞❛r ♣♦s✐çõ❡s ❡♠ ♦✉tr♦s ♣❛r❛ s❡ r❡❝❛♣✐t❛❧✐③❛r✳ ❉❡st❛ ❢♦r♠❛✱ t❡♠♦s q✉❡ t❛✐s ❡✈❡♥t♦s ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛♠ ❡♠ ❝❤♦q✉❡s ♥❡❣❛t✐✈♦s ❞❡ ❧✐q✉✐❞❡③ ❛♦s ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s ❛❢❡t❛❞♦s ♣♦st❡r✐♦r♠❡♥t❡✳✷ ❉❡r✈✐③ ✫ P♦❞♣r✐❡r❛ ✭✷✵✵✼✮ ✐❞❡♥t✐✜❝❛♠ ♦ s❡t♦r ❜❛♥❝ár✐♦ ❝♦♠♦ ❝❛✉s❛❞♦r ❞❛ ♣r♦♣❛❣❛çã♦ ❞❡ ❝❤♦q✉❡s ♥❡❣❛t✐✈♦s ❞❡❝♦r✲ r❡♥t❡s ❞❡ ❝r✐s❡s ❡♠ s❡t♦r❡s ❡s♣❡❝í✜❝♦s ❞❡ ✉♠❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛✳ ❆ ❛♥á❧✐s❡ ❞♦s ❛✉t♦r❡s ❜❛s❡❛✲s❡ r❡❞❡ ❞❡ ❡♠♣rést✐♠♦s ❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛♠❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ♦♣❡r❛çõ❡s ♣❛r❛ ❡♠♣r❡s❛s ❞❡ ✉♠ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦ s❡t♦r ❡ ♥❛ ❝♦♠♣❧❡①❛ r❡❞❡ ❣❡r❡♥❝✐❛❧ ❞❡ ✐♥st✐t✉✐çõ❡s ❜❛♥❝ár✐❛s ♠✉❧t✐♥❛❝✐♦♥❛✐s✳ ❊♠ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r✱ ♦s ❛✉t♦r❡s ❛♥❛❧✐s❛♠ ❞✉❛s ❢r✐❝çõ❡s✿ ❞❡❧❡❣❛çã♦ ❣❡r❡♥❝✐❛❧ ♥❛s ✜❧✐❛✐s ❡ ❛ s❡♥s✐❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡ ❝♦♠ r❡❧❛çã♦ ❛♦ ❧✐♠✐t❡ q✉❡ ❧❡✈❛r✐❛ ❛ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛s ❞❡ ✐♥s♦❧✈ê♥❝✐❛✳ ❈♦♠ r❡❧❛çã♦ ❛♦ ♣r✐♠❡✐r♦ ❡❢❡✐t♦✱ t❡♠♦s q✉❡ s❡ ✉♠❛ ✉♥✐❞❛❞❡ ❞❛ ✐♥st✐t✉✐çã♦ s♦❢r❡ ✉♠ ❝❤♦q✉❡ ❞❡ ❧✐q✉✐❞❡③ ❡ ✉♠ ♣♦t❡♥❝✐❛❧ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛ ❞❡ ✐♥s♦❧✈ê♥❝✐❛ ❡♠ ❛❧❣✉♠ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❡♠ ❝r✐s❡✱ é ♥❛t✉r❛❧ q✉❡ ♦❝♦rr❛♠ tr❛♥s❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛s ❞❡ r❡❝✉rs♦s ❡♥tr❡ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s ✭♣❛r❛ s❛❧❞❛r ✉♠❛ ❡✈❡♥t✉❛❧ ❝♦rr✐❞❛ ❜❛♥❝ár✐❛✮✳ ▼❡s♠♦ q✉❡ ❡ss❡ ♠❡❝❛♥✐s♠♦ ♥ã♦ ♦❝♦rr❛ ❞❡ ❢❛t♦✱ ❡s♣❡r❛✲s❡ ✉♠❛ r❡❝❡♥tr❛❧✐③❛çã♦ ♥❛ ❣❡stã♦ ❞❡ ✜❧✐❛✐s✳ ❉❡st❛ ❢♦r♠❛ ❛ ✐♥st✐t✉✐çã♦ ❛❜r❡ ♠ã♦ ❞♦s ❣❡✲ st♦r❡s r❡❣✐♦♥❛✐s ❡✱ ❝♦♥s❡q✉❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡✱ ❞❡ ♣❛rt❡ ❞♦s r❡t♦r♥♦s ❞❡ s✉❛s ❝❛rt❡✐r❛s✳ ❆❧é♠ ❞✐ss♦✱ ♦s ❛✉t♦r❡s s❛❧✐❡♥t❛♠ q✉❡ ❜❛♥❝♦s ♣ró①✐♠♦s ❛♦ ❧✐♠✐t❡ ❞❡ ❧✐q✉✐❞❛çã♦ ❝♦♠♣♦rt❛♠✲s❡ ❞❡ ♠❛♥❡✐r❛ ♠❛✐s ❝♦♥s❡r✈❛❞♦r❛ ❞♦ q✉❡ ❡♠ ♣❡rí♦❞♦s ❞❡ ❝❛❧♠❛r✐❛✳ ❙❡♥❞♦ ❛ss✐♠✱ ❛ ❞✐s♣♦♥✐❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡ ❞❡ ❝ré❞✐t♦ ♣❛r❛ ♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❛❢❡t❛❞♦ ✜❝❛ ✐♥❞✐r❡t❛♠❡♥t❡ r❡❞✉③✐❞❛✳ ❑♦❞r❡s ✫ Pr✐ts❦❡r ✭✷✵✵✷✮ ❛r❣✉♠❡♥t❛♠ q✉❡ ✐♥✈❡st✐❞♦r❡s q✉❡ s♦❢r❡♠ ♣❡r❞❛s ❡♠ ✉♠ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❧✐q✉✐❞❛♠ ♣♦s✐çõ❡s ❡♠ ♦✉tr♦s ♣♦r ❝♦♥t❛ ❞❡ ❡①✐❣ê♥❝✐❛s ❛❞✐❝✐♦♥❛✐s ❞❡ ❝♦❧❛t❡r❛❧✱ ♥❡❝❡ss✐❞❛❞❡s ❞❡ ❡♥❝❡rr❛r ♣♦s✐çõ❡s ❛❧❛✈❛♥✲ ❝❛❞❛s ❡ ♠❡s♠♦ ♣❛r❛ r❡❜❛❧❛♥❝❡❛r s✉❛ ❝❛rt❡✐r❛ ❞❡ ❛t✐✈♦s✳ ❊st❡s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s t❛♠❜é♠ sã♦ ♦❜t✐❞♦s ♣♦r ❇r✉♥♥❡r♠❡✐❡r ✫ P❡❞❡rs♦♥ ✭✷✵✵✾✮✳ ❖✉tr♦s ❛rt✐❣♦s q✉❡ ❛tr✐❜✉❡♠ ♦ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r♦ ❛ ❝❤♦q✉❡s ❞❡ ❧✐q✉✐❞❡③ sã♦✱ ♣♦r ❡①❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❋r❛♥❦ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✵✽✱ ✷✵✵✾✮✱ ▲♦♥❣st❛✛ ✭✷✵✶✵✮❀ ❡♥tr❡t❛♥t♦✱ s❡✉s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s s❡rã♦ ❝♦♠❡♥t❛❞♦s ♥❛ ♣ró①✐♠❛ s❡çã♦✱ ♣♦r tr❛t❛r❡♠ ❡s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛♠❡♥t❡ ❞❛ ❝r✐s❡ ❞♦ s✉❜♣r✐♠❡✳ ❊♠ ❧✐♥❤❛s ❣❡r❛✐s✱ ❡st❡s ❛rt✐❣♦s ❡♥❢❛t✐③❛♠ ♦ ❝❤♦q✉❡ ❞❡ ❧✐q✉✐❞❡③ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞♦ ♥♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ s❡❝✉♥❞ár✐♦ ❞❡ ❈❉❖s ❡♠✐t✐❞♦s s♦❜r❡ ❤✐♣♦t❡❝❛s ❝♦♠♦ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ✈❡t♦r ❞❡ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦ ♣❛r❛ ♦✉tr♦s s❡t♦r❡s ❞❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ ❞♦s ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✳ ❱❛②❛♥♦s ✭✷✵✵✹✮ ❛♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ✉♠ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❡♠ q✉❡ ❣❡st♦r❡s ❞❡ ❢✉♥❞♦s ❧✐q✉✐❞❛♠ s✉❛s ♣♦s✐çõ❡s ❞✐❛♥t❡ ❞❡ ✉♠❛ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞❛ ♣❡r❢♦r♠❛♥❝❡ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈❛✱ ❡✳❣✳ ❛q✉❡❧❛ ✐♥❞✉③✐❞❛ ♣♦r ✉♠ ❝♦❧❛♣s♦ ❞❡ ✉♠❛ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞❛ ❝❧❛ss❡ ❞❡ ❛t✐✈♦s ♦✉ ❞❡ ✉♠ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦✳ ❉✐❛♥t❡ ❞❡st❛ s✐t✉❛çã♦✱ ♦ ❛✉t♦r ♠♦str❛ q✉❡ ♦s ✐♥✈❡st✐❞♦r❡s s❡ t♦r♥❛♠ ♠❛✐s ❛✈❡rs♦s ❛♦ r✐s❝♦✱ ♦s ❛t✐✈♦s ❝♦♠ ❜❛✐①❛ ❧✐q✉✐❞❡③ t♦r♥❛♠✲s❡ ♠❛✐s ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞♦s ❝♦♠ ♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r❡ss❡ ✭♣♦✲ ❞❡♥❞♦ ❛♠♣❧✐✜❝❛r ♦s ❡❢❡✐t♦s ♥❡❣❛t✐✈♦s✮ ❡ ♦s ✏♣rê♠✐♦s ♣♦r ❧✐q✉✐❞❡③✑ ❛✉♠❡♥t❛♠✳ ❙❡♥❞♦ ❛ss✐♠✱ ♦s ♣ré♠✐♦s ❞❡ r✐s❝♦ ❞❡ ❡q✉✐❧í❜r✐♦ ❞❡ ✉♠ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❛✉♠❡♥t❛♠ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡✳ ❈♦♠♦ ❝♦♥s❡q✉ê♥❝✐❛ ❞❡st❡ ❢❛t♦✱ ♦ r❡❜❛❧❛♥❝❡❛♠❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ❝❛rt❡✐r❛s ♠✉❧t✐✲♠❡r❝❛❞♦s ♣♦❞❡ ❧❡✈❛r ❛♦ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦ ❞❡ ❝r✐s❡s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r❛s✳✸

◆♦t❡ q✉❡ ♥❡st❡ ♠♦❞❡❧♦✱ ♦ ❝❛♥❛❧ ❞❡ tr❛♥s♠✐ssã♦ s❡ ❞á ❡♥tr❡ ✐♥st✐t✉✐çõ❡s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r❛s ✐♥t❡r♠❡❞✐ár✐❛s✱ ♥♦ ❝❛s♦

❜❛♥❝♦s ❝♦♠ ❛t✐✈✐❞❛❞❡s ❡♠ ✈❛r❡❥♦✳

❖ ❛✉t♦r ❛✐♥❞❛ ♠♦str❛ q✉❡ ♦ ❝❡♥ár✐♦ r❡s✉❧t❛♥t❡ é ❜❛st❛♥t❡ ❝♦♥❞✐③❡♥t❡ ❝♦♠ ❛q✉❡❧❡ ✈❡r✐✜❝❛❞♦ ❞✉r❛♥t❡ ❛

♦❝♦rrê♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦✱ ♥❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❡♠ q✉❡ ❛ ❝♦rr❡❧❛çã♦ ❡♥tr❡ ❛t✐✈♦s ❛✉♠❡♥t❛ ❝♦♠♦ ❝♦♥s❡q✉ê♥❝✐❛ ❞♦ ❝❤♦q✉❡ ❞❡s❝r✐t♦✳

(9)

✷✳✶✳✸ ❖ ❈❛s♦ ❞♦ ❙✉❜♣r✐♠❡

P❛r❛ ✐❞❡♥t✐✜❝❛r ♦s ♠❡✐♦s ❞❡ ♣r♦♣❛❣❛çã♦ ❞❛ ❝r✐s❡ ♠✉♥❞✐❛❧ ❞❡✢❛❣r❛❞❛ ❡♠ ✷✵✵✽✱ é ♥❡❝❡ssár✐♦ ❡♥t❡♥❞❡r ♦s ♠♦t✐✈♦s q✉❡ ❝❛✉s❛r❛♠ ❛ ❝r✐s❡ r❡❣✐♦♥❛❧ ♥♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❞♦s ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✳ ❉✐❢❡r✲ ❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ♦✉tr❛s ❝r✐s❡s ♦r✐❣✐♥❛❞❛s ❞♦ ❝♦❧❛♣s♦ ❞❡ ❜♦❧❤❛s ❡s♣❡❝✉❧❛t✐✈❛s✱ ❛ ❜♦❧❤❛ ❞❡ ❝ré❞✐t♦ q✉❡ ❛♥t❡❝❡❞❡✉ ❛ ❝r✐s❡ ❞♦ ❙✉❜♣r✐♠❡ ♥ã♦ ❢♦✐ ❝❛r❛❝t❡r✐③❛❞❛ ♣♦r ❛❧t♦s ♣r❡ç♦s ♥♦s ❛t✐✈♦s ❛tr❡❧❛❞♦s ❛ ❛❧t❛ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐❞❛❞❡ ❡ ❣r❛♥❞❡s ✈♦❧✉♠❡s ❞❡ tr❛♥s❛çõ❡s✳ ❙❡♥❞♦ ❛ss✐♠✱ ❝❛s♦ s❡❥❛ ✈❡r✐✜❝❛❞❛ ❛ ♦❝♦r✲ rê♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦ ❡♥tr❡ s❡t♦r❡s ♥❛s ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛s ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r❡ss❡✱ ♥ã♦ ♣❛r❡❝❡ r❛③♦á✈❡❧ ❛tr✐❜✉✐r ❛ r❡s♣♦♥s❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡ ❞❛ ♣r♦♣❛❣❛çã♦ ❞❡ ❡❢❡✐t♦s ♥❡❣❛t✐✈♦s ❛♦s ♠❡s♠♦s ❢❛t♦r❡s ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞♦s ❡♠ ❝r✐s❡s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r❛s ❛♥t❡r✐♦r❡s s❡♠ ❛♥t❡s ✉♠ ❡st✉❞♦ ♠❛✐s ❞❡t❛❧❤❛❞♦ s♦❜r❡ ♦s ♠♦t✐✈♦s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛✐s ❞♦ ❝♦❧❛♣s♦ ♦❝♦rr✐❞♦ ❡♠ ✷✵✵✼✳ ❊st❛ s❡çã♦ ❛♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ❛❧❣✉♥s ❡st✉❞♦s r❡❢❡r❡♥t❡s à ❝r✐s❡ ❞♦ ❙✉❜♣r✐♠❡✳ ❍♦♥❣ ✫ ❙r❛❡r ✭✷✵✶✶✮✱ ♣♦r ❡①❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛♠ ♦ ❡✈❡♥t♦ ❛ss♦❝✐❛❞♦ à ❝r✐s❡ ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r❡ss❡ ❝♦♠♦ ✉♠❛ ❜♦❧❤❛ s✐❧❡♥❝✐♦s❛ ✭◗✉✐❡t ❇✉❜❜❧❡✮✳ ❙❡❣✉♥❞♦ ♦s ❛✉t♦r❡s✱ ❛ ❝r✐s❡ ❞♦ ❙✉❜♣r✐♠❡ ♥ã♦ s❡ tr❛t♦✉ ❞❡ ✉♠❛ ❜♦❧❤❛ ❡s♣❡❝✉❧❛t✐✈❛✱ q✉❡ s❡r✐❛ ♠❛r❝❛❞❛ ♣❡❧❛s ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛s s✉♣r❛❝✐t❛❞❛s✱ ♠❛s s✐♠ ❞❡ ✉♠❛ ❜♦❧❤❛ ❞❡ ❝ré❞✐t♦ ❢♦r♠❛❞❛ ❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐✈❛s ✐rr❡❛❧✐st❛s ❡ ❛❧❛✈❛♥❝❛❣❡♠ ❡①❝❡ss✐✈❛✳ ❙❡❣✉♥❞♦ ♦s ❛✉t♦r❡s✱ ♦ ♦t✐♠✐s♠♦ ❡①tr❡♠♦ ❝♦♠ r❡❧❛çã♦ à q✉❛❧✐❞❛❞❡ ❞♦ ❝ré❞✐t♦ ♥♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ✐♠♦❜✐❧✐ár✐♦ ❞♦s ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s ♥♦ ♣❡rí♦❞♦ ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r❡ss❡ ❛❧✐❛❞♦ à ❛♠♣❧❛ ♣♦ss✐❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡ ❡ ❜❛✐①♦ ❝✉st♦ ❞❡ ❛❧❛✈❛♥❝❛r ♣♦s✐çõ❡s r❡❢❡r❡♥t❡s ❛♦s ❈❉❖s❛ss♦❝✐❛❞♦s ❛♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❤✐♣♦t❡❝❛s ❢♦✐ r❡s♣♦♥sá✈❡❧ ♣❡❧♦ ❛✉♠❡♥t♦ ♥♦ ♣r❡ç♦ ❞♦s ❛t✐✈♦s✳ ❊♥tr❡t❛♥t♦✱ ♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❛♣r❡s❡♥t❛❞♦ ♥♦ ❛rt✐❣♦ ♠♦str❛ q✉❡ ❛ ❜❛✐①❛ ♦♣çã♦ ❞❡ ✈❡♥❞❛ ❞♦s tít✉❧♦s ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r❡ss❡ ♠❛♥té♠ ❛ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐❞❛❞❡ ❞❡ ♣r❡ç♦ ❡ ♦ ✈♦❧✉♠❡ ❞❡ tr❛♥s❛çã♦ ❜❛✐①♦s✳ ❊♠ ✉♠ s❡❣✉♥❞♦ ♠♦♠❡♥t♦✱ ✉♠ ❝❤♦q✉❡ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈♦ ♥♦s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t♦s ❞❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛✱ ❞❡s❡♥❝❛❞❡❛❞♦ ♣❡❧♦ ❞❡❢❛✉❧t♠❛❝✐ç♦ ❞❡ ❈❉❖s✱ ❢❛③ ❝♦♠ q✉❡ ❛ ❛ss✐♠❡tr✐❛ ♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉✐çã♦ ❞❛s ❝r❡♥ç❛s s♦❜r❡ ♦s r✐s❝♦s ❞❡ ❞❡❢❛✉❧ts❡ t♦r♥❡ ♠✉✐t♦ ♠❛✐s r❡❧❡✈❛♥t❡ ♥❛ ♣r❡❝✐✜❝❛çã♦ ❞❡ ✐♥str✉♠❡♥t♦s ❞❡r✐✈❛t✐✈♦s ❞❡ ❝ré❞✐t♦✳ P♦r ❝♦♥t❛ ❞✐ss♦✱ ♦ ♣❛❞rã♦ s✐❧❡♥❝✐♦s♦ ❞❛ ❜♦❧❤❛ é r❛♣✐❞❛♠❡♥t❡ s✉❜st✐t✉í❞♦ ♣♦r ♣❡rí♦❞♦s ❞❡ ❛❧t❛ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐❞❛❞❡ ♥♦s ♣r❡ç♦s✳ ❊st❡ ♣❡rí♦❞♦ ❝✉❧♠✐♥❛ ♥♦ r♦♠♣✐♠❡♥t♦ ❞❛ ❜♦❧❤❛ ❡✱ ❝♦♥s❡q✉❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡✱ ♥♦ ❞❡s❢❡❝❤♦ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞♦✳❆♥❛❧✐s❛♥❞♦ ♦s s♣r❡❛❞s❞❡ ❈r❡❞✐t ❉❡❢❛✉❧t ❙✇❛♣s❡♠✐t✐❞♦s ♣❛r❛ ✐♥st✐t✉✐çõ❡s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r❛s ❝♦♠ ❛❧t❛ ❡①♣♦s✐çã♦ ❛♦s ❈❉❖s❛tr❡❧❛❞♦s ❛ ❤✐♣♦t❡❝❛s✱ q✉❡ ❡r❛♠ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛❞♦s t♦①✐❝ ❛ss❡ts✱ t❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❛ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐❞❛❞❡ ❞♦s s♣r❡❛❞ss❡ ♠❛♥t❡✈❡ ❜❛✐①❛ ❛té ♠❡❛❞♦s ✷✵✵✼✱ ❝♦♠ t❛①❛s ✐♥❢❡r✐♦r❡s ❛ ✵✳✶✪✳ ❊st❡ ❢❛t♦ s✉♣♦rt❛ ❛ t❡♦r✐❛ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❛ ❜♦❧❤❛ q✉❡ ❛♥t❡❝❡❞❡✉ ❛ ❝r✐s❡ ❞♦ ❙✉❜♣r✐♠❡ ❛♣r❡s❡♥t♦✉ ✉♠ ♣❛❞rã♦ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥t❡ ❞❛s ♦✉tr❛s ❝r✐s❡s ❞❛ ❞é❝❛❞❛ ❞❡ ✾✵ ❡ ❞♦s ❛♥♦s ✷✵✵✵✳

❈♦♠ ❜❛s❡ ♥♦s ❡st✉❞♦s ❛♣r❡s❡♥t❛❞♦s✱ t❡♠♦s q✉❡ ♦ ♠❡✐♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦♣❛❣❛çã♦ ♠❛✐s ♣r♦✈á✈❡❧ ♣❛r❛ ❛ ❝r✐s❡ ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r❡ss❡ ♥♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❞♦s ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s ❢♦✐ ✉♠❛ ❝r✐s❡ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥ç❛ ❞❡✢❛❣r❛❞❛ ♣❡❧❛ ♦♥❞❛ ❞❡ ❞❡❢❛✉❧ts♦❝♦rr✐❞❛ ♥♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❆ss❡t✲❇❛❝❦❡❞ ❈❉❖s✳ P♦r ❝♦♥t❛ ❞❡st❡ ❢❛t♦✱ ♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❞❡ ✐♥str✉♠❡♥t♦s ❞❡r✐✈❛t✐✈♦s ❞❡ ❝ré❞✐t♦ ❢♦✐ ❞r❛♠❛t✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ ❛❢❡t❛❞♦✳ ❈♦♠♦ ❛♣♦♥t❛❞♦ ♣♦r ❍♦♥❣ ✫ ❙r❛❡r ✭✷✵✶✵✮✱ ♦ ❜❛✐①♦ ❝✉st♦ ❞❡ ❛❧❛✈❛♥❝❛❣❡♠ ❧❡✈♦✉ ✉♠ ✈♦❧✉♠❡ r❡❧❛t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡ ♣❡q✉❡♥♦ ❞❡ ✐♥✈❡st✐❞♦r❡s ❡①tr❡♠❛♠❡♥t❡ ♦t✐♠✐st❛s ❝♦♠ r❡❧❛çã♦ ❛♦ r✐s❝♦ ❞❡ ❝ré❞✐t♦ ❞❡st❡s ❛t✐✈♦s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r♦s ❛ ❛❧✐♠❡♥t❛r ♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❝♦♠ ✉♠ ♠♦♥t❛♥t❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛t✐✈♦ ❞❡ ❈❉❖s✳ ◗✉❛♥❞♦ ♦s ❛❣❡♥t❡s ❡♥✈♦❧✈✐❞♦s ❛t✉❛❧✐③❛r❛♠ s✉❛s ❝r❡♥ç❛s ♣♦r ♠❡✐♦ ❞❡ ✇❛❦❡ ✉♣ ❝❛❧❧s✱ ❝♦♠♦ ❛ ♦♥❞❛ ❞❡ ❞♦✇♥❣r❛❞❡s♣r♦♠♦✈✐❞❛ ♣♦r ❞✐✈❡rs❛s ❛❣ê♥❝✐❛s ❞❡ r❛t✐♥❣✱ ❛ ❝r✐s❡ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥ç❛ s❡ ❡s♣❛❧❤♦✉ ♣❡❧♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❞♦s ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✳ ❆ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡st❡ ♣♦♥t♦✱ ❢♦r❛♠ ✈❡r✐✜❝❛❞❛s ❡✈✐❞ê♥❝✐❛s ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥t❡s ❝♦♠ ♦ r♦♠♣✐♠❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ✉♠❛ ❜♦❧❤❛ ❡s♣❡❝✉❧❛t✐✈❛✱ ✐✳❡✳ ❛ ✈♦❧❛t✐❧✐❞❛❞❡ ❞♦ ♣r❡ç♦ ❞♦s ❛t✐✈♦s s❛❧t♦✉ ♣❛r❛ ✉♠ ♣❛t❛♠❛r ❜❛st❛♥t❡ ❡❧❡✈❛❞♦ ❡ ♦ ✈♦❧✉♠❡ ❞❡ tr❛♥s❛çã♦ ♥❛s ❜♦❧s❛s s✉❜✐✉ s✉❜st❛♥❝✐❛❧♠❡♥t❡✳

(10)

✷✳✷ ❆❜♦r❞❛❣❡♠ ❊♠♣ír✐❝❛

❆ rá♣✐❞❛ ❡①♣❛♥sã♦ ❞❛ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❛ s♦❜r❡ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦✱ ✈❡♠ ❛❝♦♠♣❛♥❤❛❞❛ ✉♠ ❣r❛♥❞❡ ❛✈❛♥ç♦ ♠❡t♦❞♦❧ó❣✐❝♦ ♥♦ t♦❝❛♥t❡ à ❛♥á❧✐s❡ ❞❡ t❛❧ tó♣✐❝♦✳ ❉✐✈❡rs♦s ❡st✉❞♦s ❡♠♣r❡❣❛♠ ♠ét♦❞♦s ❞✐❢❡r❡♥t❡s ♣❛r❛ q✉❛♥✲ t✐✜❝❛r ❛ ❡str✉t✉r❛ ❞❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞ê♥❝✐❛ ❡♥tr❡ ❛❣r✉♣❛♠❡♥t♦s ❞❡ ❛t✐✈♦s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r♦s ❡ t❡st❛r ❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s❡ ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r❡ss❡✳ ❊st❛ s❡çã♦ ❛♣r❡s❡♥t❛rá ✉♠❛ ❜r❡✈❡ ❡①♣♦s✐çã♦ ❞♦s ♣r✐♥❝✐♣❛✐s ♠ét♦❞♦s ❡♠♣r❡❣❛❞♦s ♥♦s ❡st✉❞♦s s✉♣r❛❝✐t❛❞♦s ❡ ❛❧❣✉♥s ♦✉tr♦s q✉❡ tr❛t❛♠ ❞♦ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦ ❡♥tr❡ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s✱ ✉♠❛ ✈❡③ q✉❡ ❛ ♠❡t♦❞♦❧♦❣✐❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠étr✐❝❛ é t♦t❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ❛♥á❧♦❣❛✳

❯♠❛ ❢♦r♠❛ ❜❛st❛♥t❡ ✐♥t✉✐t✐✈❛ ❞❡ ❛✈❛❧✐❛r ❛ ♣r❡s❡♥ç❛ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦ é ❛ ❝♦♠♣❛r❛çã♦ ❞❛s ❝♦rr❡✲ ❧❛çõ❡s ❡♥tr❡ ♦s r❡t♦r♥♦s ❞♦s ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r❡ss❡ ❛♥t❡s ❡ ❞❡♣♦✐s ❞❡ ✉♠ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦ ❡✈❡♥t♦✱ t❡ór✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ r❡s♣♦♥sá✈❡❧ ♣♦r ❞❡s❡♥❝❛❞❡❛r ❛ ❝r✐s❡ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r❛✳ ❊st❡ é ♦ ♠ét♦❞♦ ❡♠♣r❡❣❛❞♦ ♣♦r ❑✐♥❣ ✫ ❲❛❞❤✇❛♥✐ ✭✶✾✾✵✮ ♣❛r❛ ❛✈❛❧✐❛r ❛ ❝r✐s❡ ❛♠❡r✐❝❛♥❛ ❞❡ ✶✾✽✼ ✭❲❛❧❧ ❙tr❡❡t ❈r❛s❤✮✳ ❖s ❛✉t♦r❡s ❝♦♥❝❧✉❡♠ q✉❡ ❤♦✉✈❡ ❛✉♠❡♥t♦s s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛t✐✈♦s ♥❛ ❝♦rr❡❧❛çã♦ ❡♥tr❡ ♦s ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s ❞♦s ❊❯❆✱ ■♥❣❧❛t❡rr❛ ❡ ❏❛♣ã♦ ❛♣ós ❡st❡ ❡✈❡♥t♦✳ ▲❡❡ ✫ ❑✐♠ ✭✶✾✾✸✮ ✐♥❝❧✉❡♠ ♦✉tr♦s ✾ ♣❛ís❡s ♥❛ ❛♥á❧✐s❡ ❞♦ ♠❡s♠♦ ❡✈❡♥t♦ ❡ ❝♦♥❝❧✉❡♠ q✉❡ ❤♦✉✈❡ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦✳ ❈❛❧✈♦ ✫ ❘❡✐♥❤❛rt ✭✶✾✾✻✮ ❛✈❛❧✐❛♠ ♦ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦ ❞❛ ❝r✐s❡ ▼❡①✐❝❛♥❛ ❞❡ ✶✾✾✹ ❡ ❝♦♥❝❧✉❡♠ q✉❡ ❤♦✉✈❡ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦ ♣❛r❛ ❛ ♠❛✐♦r✐❛ ❞❛s ❡❝♦♥♦✲ ♠✐❛s ❡♠❡r❣❡♥t❡s✳ ❋♦r❜❡s ✫ ❘✐❣♦❜♦♥ ✭✷✵✵✷✮✱ ♣♦r s✉❛ ✈❡③✱ ❝r✐t✐❝❛♠ ❛ ♠❡t♦❞♦❧♦❣✐❛ ✉t✐❧✐③❛❞❛ ♣♦r ❡st❡s ❡st✉❞♦s ❡ ♠♦str❛♠ q✉❡ ♦ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛çã♦ ❡♥tr❡ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s s♦❢r❡ ✉♠ ✈✐és ♣♦s✐t✐✈♦ ❞❡✈✐❞♦ à ❤❡t❡r♦❝❡❞❛st✐❝✐❞❛❞❡ ❞❛s sér✐❡s ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛❞❛s✳ ❙❡♥❞♦ ❛ss✐♠✱ ♦s ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡s ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛çã♦ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦s ❞❡✈❡r✐❛♠ s❡r ❝♦rr✐❣✐❞♦s ❧❡✈❛♥❞♦✲s❡ ❡♠ ❝♦♥t❛ ❛ ❤❡t❡r♦❝❡❞❛st✐❝✐❞❛❞❡ ❞♦s r❡t♦r♥♦s✳ ❆♣❧✐❝❛♥❞♦ ❡st❛s ♠♦❞✐✜❝❛çõ❡s✱ ♦s ❛✉t♦r❡s ❝♦♥❝❧✉❡♠ q✉❡ ♥ã♦ ❡①✐st❡♠ ✐♥❞í❝✐♦s ❞❡ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦ ❞✉r❛♥t❡ ❛s ❝r✐s❡s ❞♦s ❊❯❆ ✭❲❛❧❧ ❙tr❡❡t ❈r❛s❤✮ ❡♠ ✶✾✽✼✱ ▼é①✐❝♦ ❡♠ ✶✾✾✹ ❡ ❞❛ ➪s✐❛ ❡♠ ✶✾✾✼✳✹ ❇❛✐❣ ✫ ●♦❧❞❢❛❥♥ ✭✷✵✵✵✮ ❝♦♥❞✉③❡♠ ✉♠ ❡st✉❞♦ ❡♠♣ír✐❝♦ s♦❜r❡ ❛ ♣r♦♣❛❣❛çã♦ ❞♦s ❡❢❡✐t♦s ❞❛ ❝r✐s❡ ❞❛ ❘úss✐❛ ♣❛r❛ ♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❜r❛s✐❧❡✐r♦✳ ❈♦♠ ❜❛s❡ ❡♠ t❡st❡s ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛çõ❡s✱ ❝♦rr✐❣✐❞❛s ♣❡❧♦ ✈✐és ❛♣♦♥t❛❞♦ ♣♦r ❋♦r❜❡s ✫ ❘✐❣♦❜♦♥ ✭✷✵✵✷✮✱ ♦s ❛✉t♦r❡s ❝♦♥❝❧✉❡♠ q✉❡ ❤♦✉✈❡ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦ ❞✉r❛♥t❡ ❛ ❝r✐s❡ ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r❡ss❡✱ ♠❛s q✉❡ t❛❧ ❡✈❡♥t♦ ♥ã♦ ❢♦✐ ♠♦t✐✈❛❞♦ ♣❡❧❛ ❧✐q✉✐❞❛çã♦ ❞❡ ♣♦s✐çõ❡s ♥♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❜r❛s✐❧❡✐r♦ ♣♦r ♣❛rt❡ ❞❡ ✐♥✈❡st✐❞♦r❡s ✐♥t❡r♥❛❝✐♦♥❛✐s ❡♥❢r❡♥t❛♥❞♦ ✉♠ ❝❤♦q✉❡ ❞❡ ❧✐q✉✐❞❡③ ❆♦ ✐♥✈és ❞✐ss♦✱ ♦s ❛✉t♦r❡s ❛♣♦♥t❛♠ ♣❛r❛ ♦ ♣â♥✐❝♦ ❞✐ss❡♠✐♥❛❞♦ ❡♥tr❡ ♦s ❣❡st♦r❡s ❡ ❛ ♦♣♦rt✉♥✐❞❛❞❡ ❞❡ ✉♠ ❛t❛q✉❡ ❡s♣❡❝✉❧❛t✐✈♦ ❝♦♥tr❛ ❛ ♠♦❡❞❛ ❜r❛s✐❧❡✐r❛✳

❆❧❣✉♥s ❡st✉❞♦s s❡ ♣r♦♣õ❡♠ ❛ ❛♥❛❧✐s❛r ❞✐r❡t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❛ ♠é❞✐❛ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❧ ❞❛s sér✐❡s ❞❡ ❛t✐✈♦s ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r❡ss❡✳ ❈♦♠♦ ❡①❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡st❛ ♠❡t♦❞♦❧♦❣✐❛✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❝✐t❛r ▲♦♥❣st❛✛ ✭✷✵✶✵✮✱ q✉❡ ❡st✐♠❛ ✉♠ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❱❆❘ ♣❛r❛ ♠❡❞✐r ❛ ❞❡♣❡♥❞ê♥❝✐❛ ❡♥tr❡ ♦ ♥í✈❡❧ ❞♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❛ss❡t✲❜❛❝❦❡❞ ❈❉❖s ❡ ♦s ❞❡♠❛✐s s❡t♦r❡s ❞❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ ❞♦s ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✳

❖s ❡st✉❞♦s ❞❡ ❋r❛♥❦ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✵✽✱ ✷✵✵✾✮✱ ▼❛rç❛❧ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✵✾✱ ✷✵✶✶✮ ❛♣❧✐❝❛♠ ✈❛r✐❛çõ❡s ❞♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❉❈❈ ❞❡ ❊♥❣❧❡ ✫ ❙❤❡♣♣❛r❞ ✭✷✵✵✶✮ ♣❛r❛ ✐❞❡♥t✐✜❝❛r ♦s ❡❢❡✐t♦s ❞❛s ❝r✐s❡s ❛♥❛❧✐s❛❞❛s s♦❜r❡ ❛s ❝♦rr❡❧❛çõ❡s ❡♥tr❡ ♦s ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r❡ss❡✳ ❆❧é♠ ❞❛ ❡str✉t✉r❛ ✉s✉❛❧✱ ♦s ❛rt✐❣♦s s✉♣r❛❝✐t❛❞♦s ❝♦♥tr♦❧❛♠ ❛s sér✐❡s ❞❡ í♥❞✐❝❡s ♣❡❧♦s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t♦s ♠❛❝r♦❡❝♦♥ô♠✐❝♦s ❞❡ s❡✉s r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈♦s ♣❛ís❡s✱ tr❛t❛♥❞♦ ♦ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❡♥❞♦❣❡♥❡✐❞❛❞❡ s❛❧✐❡♥t❛❞♦ ♣♦r P❡s❛r❛♥ ✫ P✐❝❦ ✭✷✵✵✼✮✳

❈♦♠ r❡❧❛çã♦ ❛ ♦✉tr♦s ♠ét♦❞♦s ❡♠♣r❡❣❛❞♦s✱ ❇✐❧❧✐♦ ✫ ❈❛♣♦r✐♥ ✭✷✵✵✺✮ ❡st✐♠❛♠ ✉♠ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛çõ❡s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛✐s ❞✐♥â♠✐❝❛s ❝♦♠ ♠✉❞❛♥ç❛s ❞❡ r❡❣✐♠❡ ♠❛r❦♦✈✐❛♥❛s ✭▼❛r❦♦✈ ❙✇✐t❝❤✲ ✐♥❣ ❉❈❈ ✮✱ ❡♥tr❡t❛♥t♦✱ ❝♦♠♦ ♠♦str❛❞♦ ❡♠ ❍✇❛♥❣ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✵✼✮✱ ❛ tr❛♥s✐çã♦ ❡♥tr❡ r❡❣✐♠❡s s❡ ❞á ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ♠✉✐t♦ ❢r❡q✉❡♥t❡✱ ❣❡r❛♥❞♦ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛s ❞❡ ❡st✐♠❛çã♦✳ ❊♥tr❡t❛♥t♦✱ ♦s ❛✉t♦r❡s

❊✈✐❞❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡✱ ❛ ❝♦rr❡çã♦ ♣r♦♣♦st❛ ♥ã♦ é s❛t✐s❢❛tór✐❛✱ ✉♠❛ ✈❡③ q✉❡ ✐❣♥♦r❛ ❛ r❡❧❛çã♦ ♣r❡✈✐❛♠❡♥t❡ ❡①✐st❡♥t❡

❡♥tr❡ ♦s ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s ✭q✉❡ ♣♦❞❡♠ s❡r ♥❛t✉r❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞♦s✮ ✐♥❞✉③✐♥❞♦ ✉♠ ✈✐és ❞❡ ✈❛r✐á✈❡❧ ♦♠✐t✐❞❛ ♥❛s ❝♦rr❡❧❛çõ❡s ❝♦rr✐❣✐❞❛s✳

(11)

❝♦♥❝❧✉❡♠ q✉❡ ❡①✐st❡♠ ❣❛♥❤♦s ❡♠ ✉t✐❧✐③❛r ❛ ♠❡t♦❞♦❧♦❣✐❛ ♣r♦♣♦st❛ ✭❡♠ t❡r♠♦s ❞❡ ❝r✐tér✐♦s ❞❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛çã♦✮✳ ❈❛r✈❛❧❤♦ ✭✷✵✵✼✮ ♣r♦♣õ❡ ✉♠ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ●❆❘❈❍ ❝♦♠ ♠✉❞❛♥ç❛ s✉❛✈❡ ❞❡ r❡❣✐♠❡s ✭s♠♦♦t❤ tr❛♥s✐t✐♦♥✮ ❜❛s❡❛❞♦ ♥♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛çõ❡s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛✐s ❝♦♥st❛♥t❡s ❞❡ ❇♦❧❧❡rs❧❡✈ ✭✶✾✾✵✮✳ ❖ ❛✉t♦r ❡①♣❧♦r❛ ❛ ♥ã♦ ❧✐♥❡❛r✐❞❛❞❡ ♥❛s ✈❛r✐â♥❝✐❛s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛✐s ♣❛r❛ ✐❞❡♥t✐✜❝❛çã♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦✳ ❆♥❛❧✐s❛♥❞♦ ❞❛❞♦s ❞❡ q✉❛tr♦ ♣❛ís❡s q✉❡ s♦❢r❡r❛♠ ❝r✐s❡s ♥♦ ♣❡rí♦❞♦ ❡♥tr❡ ✶✾✾✹ ❡ ✷✵✵✻✱ s❡♥❞♦ ❡st❡s ❇r❛s✐❧✱ ❘úss✐❛✱ ❆r❣❡♥t✐♥❛ ❡ ▼é①✐❝♦✱ ♦ ❛✉t♦r ✐❞❡♥t✐✜❝❛ ❛ ♣r❡s❡♥ç❛ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✲ tá❣✐♦ ❡♠ ❛❧❣✉♥s ♣❛r❡s ❞❡ ♣❛ís❡s✳ ❙❛♥t♦s ✫ ❱❛❧❧s P❡r❡✐r❛ ✭✷✵✶✵✮ ✉t✐❧✐③❛♠ ❝ó♣✉❧❛s ♣❛r❛ t❡st❛r ❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s❡ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦ ❡♥tr❡ ❛s ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛s ❞♦ ❇r❛s✐❧✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ■♥❣❧❛t❡rr❛ ❡ ❏❛♣ã♦ ❞✉r❛♥t❡ ❛ ❝r✐s❡ ❞♦ ❙✉❜♣r✐♠❡✳ ❖s ❛✉t♦r❡s ❝♦♥❝❧✉✐r❛♠ q✉❡ ❡①✐st❡ ❢♦rt❡ r❡❧❛çã♦ ❞❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞ê♥❝✐❛ ❡♥tr❡ ♦s ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s ❞♦ ❇r❛s✐❧ ❡ ❞♦s ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ✈❡r✐✜❝❛♥❞♦ ❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s❡ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦ ❡♥tr❡ ♦ ❙✫P ✺✵✵ ❡ ♦ ■❜♦✈❡s♣❛✳

✸ ▼❡t♦❞♦❧♦❣✐❛

❙❡❥❛y ✉♠ ✈❡t♦r ❡st♦❝ást✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❞✐♠❡♥sã♦N×1❡θ ✉♠ ✈❡t♦r ✜♥✐t♦ ❞❡ ♣❛râ♠❡tr♦s✳ ❈♦♥s✐❞❡r❡

❛ s❡❣✉✐♥t❡ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛çã♦ ❞♦ ♣r♦❝❡ss♦ y

yt=µt(θ) +εt,

❡♠ q✉❡ µt(θ)é ❛ ♠é❞✐❛ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❧ ❞❡ y ♥♦ ✐♥st❛♥t❡ t ❡ εt é ✉♠❛ ♣❡rt✉r❜❛çã♦ q✉❡ s❛t✐s❢❛③

εt =Ht1/2(θ)zt,

♦♥❞❡ Ht1/2(θ) é ✉♠❛ ♠❛tr✐③ ♣♦s✐t✐✈❛ ❞❡✜♥✐❞❛ ❡ z ✉♠ ✈❡t♦r ❛❧❡❛tór✐♦ ❝♦♠ ♣r✐♠❡✐r♦s ♠♦♠❡♥t♦s

❞❛❞♦s ♣♦r E(z) = 0 ❡ E(z2) = EN✱ ❡♠ q✉❡ EN é ❛ ♠❛tr✐③ ✐❞❡♥t✐❞❛❞❡ ❞❡ ♦r❞❡♠ N✳ ❉❡♥♦t❡

♣♦r ℑt ♦ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛çã♦ {y0(k), . . . , yt(k)}✳ ❆ss✉♠❛ q✉❡ y0(k) ∼ (µy, σy2)✱ ✐✳❡✳ s❡❥❛

✉♠❛ ❡①tr❛çã♦ ❞❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉✐çã♦ ♥ã♦ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❧ ❞♦ ✈❡t♦r y✳ P♦r s✐♠♣❧✐❝✐❞❛❞❡ ❞❡ ♥♦t❛çã♦✱ ❛

r❡❛❧✐③❛çã♦ ❞♦ ♣r♦❝❡ss♦ ❡st♦❝ást✐❝♦ ❡♠ q✉❡stã♦ ♥ã♦ s❡rá ♠❛✐s ✐♥❞❡①❛❞❛✳ ❚♦♠❡ k ❝♦♠♦ ✉♠❛

r❡❛❧✐③❛çã♦ ❛r❜✐trár✐❛✳ ❊♠ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r✱ s❡❥❛ℑt−1❛σ✲á❧❣❡❜r❛ ❣❡r❛❞❛ ♣❡❧♦ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛çã♦

{y0, . . . , yt−1}✳ ❚♦♠❡ y˜t =yt−µt(θ)✱ ❛ sér✐❡ ♣r❡✈✐❛♠❡♥t❡ tr❛t❛❞❛ ♣❡❧❛ ♠é❞✐❛ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❧✳ ❆

✈❛r✐â♥❝✐❛ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❧ ❞♦ ♣r♦❝❡ss♦ ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r❡ss❡ é ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦r

V(˜yt|ℑt−1) =E(εtε′t|ℑt−1) =Ht.

❉❡st❛ ❢♦r♠❛✱ t❡♠♦s q✉❡ Ht é ❛ ♠❛tr✐③ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐â♥❝✐❛s ❡ ❝♦✈❛r✐â♥❝✐❛s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛✐s ❞❡ y ♥♦

✐♥st❛♥t❡ t✳

✸✳✶ ❖ ▼♦❞❡❧♦ ❞❡ ❈♦rr❡❧❛çõ❡s ❈♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛✐s ❉✐♥â♠✐❝❛s

❉❡✜♥✐çã♦✳ ✭▼♦❞❡❧♦ ❉❈❈ ❞❡ ❊♥❣❧❡✱ ✷✵✵✷✮ ❖ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛çõ❡s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛✐s ❞✐♥â♠✐❝❛s ❞❡ ❊♥❣❧❡ ✭✷✵✵✷✮ é ❞❛❞♦ ♣❡❧❛ s❡❣✉✐♥t❡ ❞❡❝♦♠♣♦s✐çã♦ ❞❛ ♠❛tr✐③ ❞❡ ❝♦✈❛r✐â♥❝✐❛s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛✐s✿

Ht≡DtRtDt,

(12)

❝♦♠Dt=❞✐❛❣nhi,t1/2o,❡♠ q✉❡hi,t é ❞❛❞♦ ♣♦r q✉❛❧q✉❡r ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❳✲❆❘❈❍ ✉♥✐✈❛r✐❛❞♦✳ ❚♦♠❛♥❞♦

♦s r❡sí❞✉♦s ♣❛❞r♦♥✐③❛❞♦s ✭ǫt=D−t1εt✮✱ t❡♠♦s E(ǫtǫ′t|ℑt−1) = Rt✳

❆ss✐♠✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❡s❝r❡✈❡r

Rt=❞✐❛❣

n

qi,t−1/2o·Qt·❞✐❛❣

n

q−i,t1/2o

♦♥❞❡ ❛ ♠❛tr✐③ N ×N ♣♦s✐t✐✈❛ ❞❡✜♥✐❞❛ Qt = (qij,t) é ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦r

Qt = 1−

M

X

m=1

αm

N X n=1 βn ! ¯ Q+ M X m=1

αm ǫt−mǫ′t−m

+ N

X

n=1

βnQt−n

❝♦♠ Q¯ ❛ ♠❛tr✐③ ❞❡ ❝♦✈❛r✐â♥❝✐❛s ✐♥❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛✐s ❞❡ ǫt αi, βi 0 ∀i✱ t❛✐s q✉❡ P

mαm +

P

nβn≤1✳

❆ ❢✉♥çã♦ ❞❡ ❧♦❣✲✈❡r♦ss✐♠✐❧❤❛♥ç❛ é ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦r

ℓ(φ|ℑt) = −1

2

X

t

nlog(2π) + log|Ht|+ ˜yt′Ht−1y˜t

= −1

2

X

t

nlog(2π) + log|DtRtDt|+ε′tDt−1R−t1D−t1εt

−1

2

X

t

nlog(2π) + 2 log|Dt|+ log|Rt|+ǫ′tR−t1ǫt

✸✳✶✳✶ Pr♦❝❡❞✐♠❡♥t♦ ❡♠ ❉♦✐s ❊stá❣✐♦s

❉❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ❛ ❡✈✐t❛r ❛ ❡st✐♠❛çã♦ s✐♠✉❧tâ♥❡❛ ❞♦s ♠♦❞❡❧♦s ✉♥✐✈❛r✐❛❞♦s ❡ ❞❛s ❝♦rr❡❧❛çõ❡s ❝♦♥❞✐✲ ❝✐♦♥❛✐s✱ s❡rá ❡♠♣r❡❣❛❞♦ ✉♠ ♣r♦❝❡❞✐♠❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ❡st✐♠❛çã♦ ❡♠ ❞♦✐s ❡stá❣✐♦s✳ ❖ ♣r✐♠❡✐r♦ ❡s✲ tá❣✐♦ ❝♦♥s✐st❡ ♥❛ ❡st✐♠❛çã♦ ❞♦s ♠♦❞❡❧♦s ❳✲❆❘❈❍ ✉♥✐✈❛r✐❛❞♦s ♣❛r❛ ❝❛❞❛ sér✐❡ ♣ré✲✜❧tr❛❞❛✳ ❊♠ s❡❣✉✐❞❛✱ ♦s r❡sí❞✉♦s ❞♦ ♣r✐♠❡✐r♦ ❡stá❣✐♦ sã♦ ♣❛❞r♦♥✐③❛❞♦s ♣♦r s❡✉s r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈♦s ❞❡s✈✐♦s ♣❛❞rã♦ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦s ❡ ✉t✐❧✐③❛❞♦s ♣❛r❛ ❡st✐♠❛r ♦s ♣❛râ♠❡tr♦s ❞♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❉❈❈✳ P❛r❛ r❡❛❧✐③❛r ❛ ❡st✐♠❛çã♦ ❞♦ ♣r✐♠❡✐r♦ ❡stá❣✐♦✱ ❛ ♠❛tr✐③ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛çõ❡s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛✐s é s✉❜st✐t✉í❞❛ ♣❡❧❛ ♠❛tr✐③ ✐❞❡♥t✐❞❛❞❡ ❞❡ ♦r❞❡♠ N✱ ❞❡♥♦t❛❞❛ ♣♦r EN✳ P❛r❛ ✉♠❛ ❞❡s❝r✐çã♦ ❢♦r♠❛❧ ❞❛ ❢✉♥çã♦ ❞❡ q✉❛s❡✲

♠á①✐♠❛ ✈❡r♦ss✐♠✐❧❤❛♥ç❛✱ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡ ♦ ✈❡t♦r ❞❡ ♣❛râ♠❡tr♦s✱ θ✱ ♣❛rt✐❝✐♦♥❛❞♦ θ = {φi}Ni=1, ψ

❝♦♠ φi r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛♥❞♦ ❛ ❝♦❧❡çã♦ ❞❡ ♣❛râ♠❡tr♦s ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r❡ss❡ r❡❢❡r❡♥t❡s ❛♦ ♣r✐♠❡✐r♦ ❡stá❣✐♦

♣❛r❛ ❛ sér✐❡ i ❡ ψ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛❞♦ ♦s ♣❛râ♠❡tr♦s ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r❡ss❡ ❞♦ s❡❣✉♥❞♦ ❡stá❣✐♦✳ ❆ ❢✉♥çã♦ ❞❡

q✉❛s❡✲✈❡r♦ss✐♠✐❧❤❛♥ç❛ ♣❛r❛ ♦ ♣r✐♠❡✐r♦ ❡stá❣✐♦ ✭❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❧ ❡♠ ℑt✮✱ ❞❡♥♦t❛❞❛ ♣♦r ℓ˜1 é ❞❛❞❛

♣♦r

(13)

˜

1(φ|ℑt) = − 1 2

T

X

t=1

Nlog(2π) + 2 log|Dt|+ log|EN|+ ˜yt′Dt−1ENDt−1y˜t

= −1

2 T

X

t=1

Nlog(2π) + 2 log|Dt|+ ˜y′tD−t2y˜t

= −1

2 T

X

t=1

Nlog(2π) + N

X

i=1

log(hit) + ˜ yit2 hit

!

= −1

2 N

X

i=1

T log(2π) + T

X

t=1

log(hit) + ˜ yit2 hit

!

q✉❡ ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞❡ à s♦♠❛ ❞❛s ❢✉♥çõ❡s ❞❡ ❧♦❣✲✈❡r♦ss✐♠✐❧❤❛♥ç❛ ❞♦s ♠♦❞❡❧♦s ❳✲❆❘❈❍ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛✐s✳ ❈♦rr✐❣✐♥❞♦ ❛ ❡s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛çã♦ ❞❛ ✈❡r♦ss✐♠✐❧❤❛♥ç❛ ❝♦♠ ❛ ♠❛tr✐③ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛çõ❡s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛✐s✱ t❡♠♦s ❛ s❡❣✉✐♥t❡ ❢✉♥çã♦ ❞❡ q✉❛s❡✲✈❡r♦ss✐♠✐❧❤❛♥ç❛ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❧ ♥♦s ♣❛râ♠❡tr♦s ❡st✐♠❛❞♦s ♣❛r❛ ♦ s❡❣✉♥❞♦ ❡stá❣✐♦✱ ❞❡♥♦t❛❞❛ ♣♦r ˜2

˜ ℓ2

ψ|φˆM L,ℑt

= −1

2 T

X

t=1

Nlog(2π) + 2 log|Dt|+ log(|Rt|) +yt′Dt−1R−t1D−t1yt

= −1

2 T

X

t=1

Nlog(2π) + 2 log|Dt|+ log(|Rt|) +ǫ′tR−t1ǫt

✭✶✮

∝ −1

2 T

X

t=1

ln(|Rt|) +ǫ′tR

−1

t ǫt

✭✷✮

❆ ❝♦♥s✐stê♥❝✐❛ ❡ ♥♦r♠❛❧✐❞❛❞❡ ❛s✐♥tót✐❝❛ ❞♦s ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s ♥♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❉❈❈ ♥ã♦ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♠ ❞❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s❡ ❞❡ ♥♦r♠❛❧✐❞❛❞❡ ❞♦s r❡t♦r♥♦s✳ ❆ss✐♠✱ ♠❡s♠♦ s♦❜ ♦ ❢❛t♦ ❡st✐❧✐③❛❞♦ ❞❡ ♥ã♦ ♥♦r♠❛❧✐❞❛❞❡ ❞♦s r❡t♦r♥♦s ♥❛ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❛ ❞❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠❡tr✐❛ ❞❡ ✜♥❛♥ç❛s ✲ q✉❡ ♣♦st✉❧❛ q✉❡ ♦s r❡t♦r♥♦s ❞❡ ❛t✐✈♦s s❡❣✉❡♠ ❞✐str✐❜✉✐çõ❡s ❝♦♠ ♣✐❝♦ ❛❧t♦ ❡ ❝❛✉❞❛s ♣❡s❛❞❛s✱ ♦s ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s ♠❛♥té♠ ❛s ♣r♦♣r✐❡❞❛❞❡s s✉♣r❛❝✐t❛❞❛s✳ ◆❡st❡ ❝❛s♦✱ q✉❡ ❢♦✐ ✐♠♣❧✐❝✐t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❛ss✉♠✐❞♦ ❛té ❛q✉✐✱ t❡♠♦s q✉❡ ♦s ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r❡ss❡ ♣♦❞❡♠ s❡r ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❞♦s ❝♦♠♦ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s ❞❡ q✉❛s❡✲♠á①✐♠❛ ✈❡r♦ss✐♠✐❧❤❛♥ç❛✳ P♦r ✜♠✱ t❡♥❞♦ ❡♠ ✈✐st❛ q✉❡ ♦s ❞♦✐s ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦s ❞❡ ♣❛râ♠❡tr♦s ❞♦ s✐st❡♠❛ ❢♦r❛♠ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦s ♣♦r ▲■▼▲✱ ♣❛r❛ ❣❛r❛♥t✐r ❛ ❡✜❝✐ê♥❝✐❛ ❞♦s ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s ❞❡s❝r✐t♦s ❛❝✐♠❛✱ ❛♣❧✐❝❛✲s❡ ✉♠❛ ✐t❡r❛çã♦ ❞♦ ❛❧❣♦r✐t♠♦ ❞❡ ◆❡✇t♦♥✲❘❛♣❤s♦♥ à ✈❡r♦ss✐♠✐❧❤❛♥ç❛ ❞♦ s❡❣✉♥❞♦ ❡stá❣✐♦ ♣❛r❛ ♦❜t❡r ❡st✐♠❛t✐✈❛s ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥t❡s ❞♦s s❝♦r❡s ❡♠ q✉❡stã♦✳

✸✳✷ ❚❡st❡s ❞❡ ❊s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛çã♦

❉✐✈❡rs♦s t❡st❡s ❞❡ ❡s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛çã♦ ♣♦❞❡♠ s❡r ❛♣❧✐❝❛❞♦s ♣❛r❛ t❡st❛r ❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s❡ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦ ✭✈❡r ❉✉♥❣❡② ❡t ❛❧✳✱ ✷✵✵✹✮✳ ❖ ♣r♦❝❡❞✐♠❡♥t♦ q✉❡ s❡rá ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛❞♦ ♥♦ q✉❡ s❡ s❡❣✉❡ ❜❛s❡✐❛✲s❡ ❡♠ ❲♦♦❧❞r✐❞❣❡ ✭✶✾✾✵✱ ✶✾✾✶✮✳ Pr✐♠❡✐r❛♠❡♥t❡ s❡rá ❛♣r❡s❡♥t❛❞♦ ✉♠ t❡st❡ ▲▼ ❣❡r❛❧ ♣❛r❛ ♠á ❡s✲ ♣❡❝✐✜❝❛çã♦ ♥♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦ ❡ ❡♠ s❡❣✉✐❞❛ s❡rá ❛♣r❡s❡♥t❛❞❛ ❛ ❡①t❡♥sã♦ ♥❡❝❡ssár✐❛ ♣❛r❛ t❡st❛r ❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s❡ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tá❣✐♦✳ ❖s tr❛❜❛❧❤♦s ❞❡ ❈❛♣♣✐❡❧❧♦ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✵✸✮✱ ▼❛rç❛❧ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✵✾✮✱ ▼❛rç❛❧ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✶✶✮ ❡ ❋r❛♥❦ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✵✽✮ ❛♣❧✐❝❛♠ ❡st❛ ♠❡t♦❞♦❧♦❣✐❛✳

Referências

Documentos relacionados

Portanto, mesmo percebendo a presença da música em diferentes situações no ambiente de educação infantil, percebe-se que as atividades relacionadas ao fazer musical ainda são

De acordo com o Consed (2011), o cursista deve ter em mente os pressupostos básicos que sustentam a formulação do Progestão, tanto do ponto de vista do gerenciamento

(2009) sobre motivação e reconhecimento do trabalho docente. A fim de tratarmos de todas as questões que surgiram ao longo do trabalho, sintetizamos, a seguir, os objetivos de cada

No código abaixo, foi atribuída a string “power” à variável do tipo string my_probe, que será usada como sonda para busca na string atribuída à variável my_string.. O

patula inibe a multiplicação do DENV-3 nas células, (Figura 4), além disso, nas análises microscópicas não foi observado efeito citotóxico do extrato sobre as

the human rights legislated at an international level in the Brazilian national legal system and in others. Furthermore, considering the damaging events already

Acrescenta que “a ‘fonte do direito’ é o próprio direito em sua passagem de um estado de fluidez e invisibilidade subterrânea ao estado de segurança e clareza” (Montoro, 2016,

dois gestores, pelo fato deles serem os mais indicados para avaliarem administrativamente a articulação entre o ensino médio e a educação profissional, bem como a estruturação