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Vigilância das meningites na Região Metropolitana de Belo Horizonte, MG, 1999: o uso dos sistemas de informação em saúde e o método da captura-recaptura na estimação da incidência e da subnotificação

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(1)

Maria da Conceição Juste Werneck Côrtes

Vigilância das meningites na Região Metropolitana de Belo

Horizonte, MG, 1999: o uso dos sistemas de informação em

saúde e o método da captura-recaptura na estimação

da incidência e da subnotificação

Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais

Belo Horizonte

(2)

Maria da Conceição Juste Werneck Côrtes

Vigilância das meningites na Região Metropolitana de Belo

Horizonte, MG, 1999: o uso dos sistemas de informação em

saúde e o método da captura-recaptura na estimação

da incidência e da subnotificação

! "# $ % & ' ""

Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais

Belo Horizonte

(3)

Côrtes, Maria da Conceição Juste Werneck

C828v Vigilância das meningites na Região Metropolitana de

Belo Horizonte, MG, 1999: o uso dos sistemas de informação

em saúde e o método da captura-recaptura na estimação da

incidência e da subnotificação. /Maria da Conceição Juste

Werneck Côrtes. Belo Horizonte, 2002.

219p.

Tese(Doutorado)Medicina Tropical. Faculdade de

Medicina da UFMG.

1.Meningite. 2.Vigilância epidemiológica.3.Notificação

de doenças/métodos.4.Sistemas de informação. I.Título.

NLM: WA 105

(4)

UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS

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Programa de Pós-Graduação em Medicina Tropical

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(5)
(6)

Ao Fernando, Bruno, Bernardo e Marcelo, meus amores, aos meus queridos pais e irmãos,

(7)

Sei da impossibilidade de agradecer a todas mas, quero nomear algumas pessoas que foram fundamentais neste processo trabalhoso e

também fecundo para o meu crescimento.Trilharam comigo os

caminhos tornando-se os verdadeiros responsáveis pela alegria e pela realização que agora vivo.

À

Professora

Waleska,

muito

mais

que

orientadora,

por

sua

disponibilidade, competência e principalmente pelo apoio e confiança, essenciais

na realização deste trabalho.

À Professora Suzana, amiga, companheira, orientadora, incentivadora em

todos os momentos e que tornou possível o término deste trabalho;...” e, se não

houver flores, nem frutos”..., valeu pela amizade!

À Renata Fabiana, pelo trabalho inestimável na preparação dos dados e

elaboração das tabelas; por tantas horas, por tantos sacrifícios, por tanta

paciência...

À Professora Sueli Mingoti, pelas valiosas contribuições nos cálculos e

orientações no método de captura-recaptura.

Ao Professor Manoel Otávio da Costa Rocha, Coordenador do Programa de

Pós-Graduação em Medicina Tropical e aos demais membros do Colegiado, pela

oportunidade de adquirir conhecimentos, pelo apoio e compreensão.

Ao Professor Geraldo Guedes, Chefe do Departamento de Medicina

Preventiva e Social, pelo empenho para a minha liberação de encargos docentes.

À Dra. Valéria de Melo Rodrigues de Oliveira, Superindentente de

Epidemiologia da Secretaria de Estado da Saúde, e Kelly Nogueira Guerra,

Soteres Marques que facilitaram a obtenção dos dados do SINAN.

À equipe da divisão de estatística da DMS, em especial Rômulo Morato,

Terezinha Rios e Gisele, pela boa vontade e presteza no fornecimento dos dados

do SINAN e SIM.

À Elsie, do CGP, pelas informações valiosas sobre as AIH.

À Patrícia Botelho, pela disponibilidade, boa vontade e informações

valiosas sobre as meningites e o SINAN;

À Diretoria da Faculdade de Medicina, representada pelo Professor Geraldo

Brasileiro, pelo suporte financeiro.

(8)

Aos colegas professores do DMPS que sempre se dispuseram a ajudar-me:

Horácio, Délcio, Mark, Bernadete, Paulinho, Itamar, Proietti.

Aos funcionários, amigos, sempre disponíveis: Maurílio, Olivier, Roberta,

Elisa...

Ao Sérgio, Marcelo, Fernanda e à Cláudia di Lorenzo, pelo apoio técnico.

Ao Fernando, companheiro que se superou para que eu não esmorecesse.

Aos meus filhos, Bruno, Bernardo e Marcelo, de quem tanto me orgulho,

pela aceitação de minhas ausências e crises de desânimo.

Aos meus pais e irmãos, cunhados e cunhadas exemplos de trabalho,

dedicação, competência e amor, pela compreensão, pela torcida. (Obrigada,

Raquel, pelo sacrifício!).

Aos meus amigos pela paciência em agüentar-me falando da tese o tempo

todo.

Às amigas Tereza Costa Oliveira e Elisa de Souza e Silva, incentivadoras

deste trabalho.

(9)

“O que é científico?

É aquilo que caiu nas redes reconhecidas pela confraria dos cientistas. Cientistas são aqueles que pescam no grande rio... Mas há também os céus e as matas que se enchem de cantos de sabiás...

Lá as redes dos cientistas ficam sempre vazias.”

(10)

SUMÁRIO

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@#@#@ +0 );*; * )0 ) + 0 1; * *'+=> ############################################################################## DD

@#D 0 0*0 ) +0 ) *; ( +=> ! ) + (+A 0 ) ; * *'+=> 60*;+;7F G 0 * +,+()0

60*G 0 07 ) ) ( +,* + ) 60* 7 ##################################################################################### DH @#D#< 0*0 ) + ) *; ( +=> ) + (+A 0 ) ; * *'+=> 60*;+;7 ################################## IE

@#D#@ 0*0 ) + ) *; ( +=J)0 G 0 * +,+()0 0*0 ) + K;*' ) 0+K ) 60*G 0 07########## I<

@#D#D 0*0 ) + ) *; ( +=J)0 ) ( +,* + ) 60* 7######################################################## IC

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D 13) *A 0 ########################################################################################################################## C?

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I#<#D 0*0 ) + ) *; ( +=> ) ( +,* + ) 60* 7########################################################## LC

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(11)

L *0' 00> ######################################################################################################################## <@<

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L#D#I 0 '+0 0 ' ;0 Q 0*;+; ) 0*G 0 0 ########################################################################### <CE

L#I + *;'* 9;'*+ ' 1*;+ + ) + 0 1; * *'+=> 10)(A+ + ################################################# <C@

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? ' ;', 0> ()' ); +=J)0 ########################################################################################## <L?

M# () )(9;'*+0 1*1,* (: *'+0 ############################################################################################# <?<

H# + 9; *')0######################################################################################################################### <MM

+ 9; *') + *0 (*1 *=> + ()RS9;'*+ ) ());'G* ); 0 '+ 0 0*;+; ; 0

?<L '+0 0 ; * *'+ 0F ( 1GF <HHH ##################################################################### <MH

+ 9; *') 1 '+(+' )(N0 *'+0 ',N;*' ) (: *'+0 0 '+0 0 0*;+;############################# <H<

+ 9; *') ' '+0 0 0*G 0 0 ############################################################################################### <HM

+ 9; *') '+0 0 0* ###################################################################################################### <HH

+ 9; *') ) '+0 0 ;> ; * *'+ 0 + 0*;+ ####################################################################### @EE

+ 9; *') '+0 0 ; * *'+ 0 + );+0 + 0*;+ ################################################################### @EI

+ 9; *') )0 * + *A+0 ( '+ (+ ()'+ (+ ################################################################## @EC

<E# +;)T 0 ############################################################################################################################# @E?

+;)T + ()0 , => 0)0 U CME ( +(*+ U <HID ################################################################ @EM

+;)T 1 ) *;*=> ) '+0 ) );*; * ) 61(+0*,F <HHM7####################################################### @<E

+;)T ' ,+=> ) :()+ + () *> ) ( ,* +;+ ) 1), G (*P ; )F <HHH##################### @<<

+;)T *'G+ *; *A* +, ) *;A)0 * +=> ########################################################################## @<@

+;)T ) (),+=> 0 ;*'N * 0 + *() (*+ ) ( ,* +;+ ) 0+K ) V1G )

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+;)T + (*P+=> ) *; )(;+=> G 0 * +,+( ################################################################# @<?

(12)
(13)

LISTA DE TABELAS

+1),+ < 0);0*1*,* + ) ) A+, ( () * *A 0* *A ) 0*0 ) + ) A* *,B;'*+ # @H

+1),+ @ ':,' , + ' 1)( (+ ) () *0 ( 0 ) '+0 0 ) +0 ; )0 ), O ) '+ (+ ()'+ (+ ####################################################################### LH

+1),+ D *0 (*1 *=> + ()RS9;'*+ ) ());'G* ); ) +, ;0 '+ 0 0*;+; ; 0 ?<L '+0 0 ; * *'+ 0F ( 1GF <HHH############################################# ?C

+1),+ I 0);0*1*,* + )F )0 )'* *'* + ) ) A+, ()0 () * *A 0 0 0*;+*0 ) 0*; +0 0+ 0 ;+ ) *;*=> ) '+0 ) );*; * )F 0*;+;F ( 1GF <HHH##################################################################################################################### ??

+1),+ C *0 (*1 *=> 0 '+0 0 ) );*; * ) ; * *'+ 0 + 0*;+; (

;*'N * ) ()0* 9;'*+ ) ) + ); * ); F ( 1GF <HHH ############################# ?M

+1),+ L *0 (*1 *=> 0 '+0 0 ) );*; * ) ; * *'+ 0 + 0*;+; (

;*'N * ) + ); * ); ) ) G 0 * +,*P+=> F ( 1GF <HHH ##################### ?H

+1),+ ? *0 (*1 *=> 0 '+0 0 ) );*; * ) ; * *'+ 0 + 0*;+; ( *+ ;/0 *' *;+,F ( 1GF <HHH ####################################################################### ME

+1),+ M *0 (*1 *=> 0 '+0 0 ) );*; * ) ; * *'+ 0 + 0*;+; (

G 0 * +,*P+=> F ;*'N * ) *+ ;/0 *' *;+,F ( 1GF <HHH##################### ME

+1),+ H *0 (*1 *=> 0 '+0 0 ) );*; * ) ; * *'+ 0 + 0*;+; ( G 0 * +, ) *+ ;/0 *' *;+,F ( 1GF <HHH#################################################### M<

+1),+ <E *0 (*1 *=> 0 '+0 0 ) );*; * ) ; * *'+ 0 + 0*;+; (

)0 + N0 *'+0 + (+=> + G 0 * +,*P+=> F ( 1GF <HHH########################## M@

+1),+ << *0 (*1 *=> 0 '+0 0 ) );*; * ) ; * *'+ 0 + 0*;+; ( )0 + N0 *'+0 ) )' ((* ); () + G 0 * +,*P+=> ) + ; * *'+=> F ( 1GF <HHH ################################################################################## MD

+1),+ <@ *0 (*1 *=> 0 '+0 0 ) );*; * ) ; * *'+ 0 + 0*;+; ( ) )( *;+=> ) * ,/ *'+F ( 1GF <HHH########################################################### MI

+1),+ <D *0 (*1 *=> 0 '+0 0 ) );*; * ) ; * *'+ 0 + 0*;+; (

'(* O(* 0+ +(+ *+ ;/0 *' ) ) * , *+F ( 1GF <HHH ####################### MC

+1),+ <I *0 (*1 *=> 0 '+0 0 ) );*; * ) ; * *'+ 0 + 0*;+; ( )A , => ) *+ ;/0 *' *;+,F ( 1GF <HHH################################################### ML

+1),+ <C *0 (*1 *=> 0 '+0 0 ) );*; * ) ; * *'+ 0 + 0*;+; ( ) * , *+ ) )A , => F ( 1GF <HHH################################################################## M?

+1),+ <L ()RS9;'*+0 ) ' ) *' *); )0 ) '+0 0 ) '+0 0 ' ; *( + 0 )

);*; * )F ( ;*'N * ) ()0* 9;'*+F ( 1GF <HHH################################## MM

+1),+ <? ' ) *'*); ) ) *;'* 9;'*+ ) );*; * ) ( ;*'N * ) ()0* 9;'*+ ) ) * , *+F ( 1GF <HHH ###################################################################################### HE

+1),+ <M *0 (*1 *=> 0 '+0 0 ) );*; * ) () *0 (+ 0 ; 0*G 0 0 (

;*'N * ) ()0* 9;'*+ ) ) * , *+F ( 1GF <HHH####################################### H@

+1),+ <H *0 (*1 *=> 0 '+0 0 ) );*; * ) () *0 (+ 0 ; 0*G 0 0 (

;*'N * G 0 * +,F G 0 * +, ) ) * , *+F ( 1GF <HHH########################## HD

+1),+ @E *0 (*1 *=> 0 '+0 0 ) );*; * ) () *0 (+ 0 ; 0*G 0 0 ( )A , => ) ) * , *+F ( 1GF <HHH################################################################## HI

+1),+ @< *0 (*1 *=> 0 /1* 0 ( );*; * ) () *0 (+ 0 ; 0* (

;*'N * ) ()0* 9;'*+ ) ) ' ((9;'*+F ( 1GF <HHH ############################### HI

+1),+ @@ *0 (*1 *=> 0 /1* 0 ( );*; * ) () *0 (+ 0 ; 0* ( G 0 * +,F ( 1GF <HHH ######################################################################################## HC

+1),+ @D ' +(+=> ) A+(*:A)*0 ',N;*' ) (: *'+0 0 '+0 0 )

);*; * ) );' ; (+ 0 ; 0*;+;F 0*G 0 0 ) 0* F ( 1GF <HHH#################### HL

(14)

+1),+ @C *0 (*1 *=> 0 '+0 0 ) );*; * ) () *0 (+ 0 ; 0*;+; )

+ 0); )0 ; 0*G 0 0F ( 1GF <HHH ################################################################# <ED

+1),+ @L *0 (*1 *=> 0 '+0 0 ) );*; * ) () *0 (+ 0 ; 0*;+; )

+ 0); )0 ; 0*G 0 0 ( ;*'N * ) ()0* 9;'*+ ) G 0 * +,F ( 1GF <HHH####################################################################################################### <EI

+1),+ @? *0 (*1 *=> 0 '+0 0 ) );*; * ) () *0 (+ 0 ; 0*;+; ) + 0); )0 ; 0*G 0 0F ( 1GF <HHH ################################################################# <EC

+1),+ @M *0 (*1 *=> 0 '+0 0 ) );*; * ) () *0 (+ 0 ; 0*;+; )

+ 0); )0 ; 0*G 0 0 ( ;*'N * ) G 0 * +,*P+=> ) ) * , *+F ( 1GF <HHH######################################################################################################## <EL

+1),+ @H *0 (*1 *=> 0 '+0 0 ) );*; * ) () *0 (+ 0 ; 0*;+; )

+ 0); )0 ; 0*G 0 0 ( G 0 * +, ) ) * , *+F ( 1GF <HHH##################### <EL

+1),+ DE *0 (*1 *=> 0 '+0 0 ) );*; * ) () *0 (+ 0 ; 0*;+; ) + 0); )0 ; 0*G 0 0 ( '(* O(* 0+ +(+ *+ ;/0 *' ) ) * , *+F ( 1GF <HHH #################################################################################### <E?

+1),+ D< ' +(+=> ) +, +0 A+(*:A)*0 ) '+0 0 );' ; (+ 0 + );+0 ;

0* F ; 0*G 0 0 ) ; 0* F ) ; 0*;+; ) 0* F ( 1GF <HHH############################# <EH

+1),+ D@ (+=> + G 0 * +,*P+=> 0 '+0 0 ) );*; * ) () *0 (+ 0 + );+0 ; 0*G 0 0 ) ; 0*;+;F ( 1GF <HHH################################################## <<E

+1),+ DD *0 (*1 *=> 0 '+0 0 ) );*; * ) ; * *'+ 0 + 0*;+; ) () *0 (+ 0 ; 0*G 0 0 ( A+(*:A)*0F 1+;' 0 ) )('); +, ) ' ;' ( B;'*+F ( 1GF <HHH ############################################################################ <<@

+1),+ DI *0 (*1 *=> 0 '+0 0 ) );*; * ) ; * *'+ 0 + 0*;+; )

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+1),+ DC *0 (*1 *=> 0 '+0 0 ) );*; * ) )0'+( + 0 ) 0) *; ( +=> 0*;+; ) () *0 (+ 0 ; 0*G 0 0 ( +*T+ ) :(*+ ) ) * , *+F ( 1GF <HHH####################################################################################################### <<I

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(15)

LISTA DE FIGURAS

* (+ < Q *; )(0)=> +0 ; )0 +(+ )0 * + *A+ ) ;K )( ) '+0 0 ) +

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* (+ @ Q () *> ) ( ,* +;+ ) 1), G (*P ; )F <HHH 6@L ;*'N * 07######################### L<

* (+ D Q +, (* +(+ +;:,*0) ) ,*'+=J)0 ) '+0 ; 0*;+;##################################### LL

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;*'N * ) ()0* 9;'*+F ( 1GF <HHH############################################################### MH

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* (+ H Q '+0 0 () *0 (+ 0 ; 0*G 0 0 ) ; 0* ################################################################ <E<

* (+ <E Q '+0 0 ; * *'+ 0 + 0*;+; ) + 0); )0 ; 0*G 0 0 ############################################ <E@

(16)

LISTA DE SIGLAS E ABREVIATURAS

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(17)

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(18)

RESUMO

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ABSTRACT

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TABELA 1- SENSIBILIDADE E VALOR PREDITIVO POSITIVO DE UM SISTEMA DE VIGILÂNCIA
FIGURA 1 – INTERSEÇÃO DAS FONTES PARA ESTIMATIVA DE NÚMERO DE CASOS  EM UMA POPULAÇÃO POR CAPTURA-RECAPTURA
FIGURA 3 - A LGORITMO PARA A ANÁLISE DE DUPLICAÇÕES DE CASOS NO SINAN
TABELA 2 - CÁLCULO DA COBERTURA DE REGISTROS DE CASOS EM DUAS  FONTES PELO MÉTODO DE CAPTURA- RECAPTURA
+7

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