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Previsão de fornecimento de energia elétrica: um estudo de caso do ponto de vista do barramento

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/59P# F,#

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(61)

=5

0

0.2

0.4

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1

1.2

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x 10

−4

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0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

x 10

9

(a)

Hz

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0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

x 10

−4

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

x 10

8

(b)

Hz

S

~

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(jw)

2 : LR + $ +

I5

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$ #

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+ '' + + $/ ,

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(62)

=6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

−5000

0

5000

10000

r(k)

(a)

0

5

10

15

20

−5000

0

5000

10000

t (hs)

r(k)

(b)

2: PR *

/ 5

59P $*

/

5 6:

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%

. $ "

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(63)

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(64)

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(65)

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(67)

=L

1 6445G 3 6446

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(68)

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+ # , $

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2 = 5 5 $ / 5

*

$

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(69)

=Q

5

10

15

20

25

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

rmse(k)

(c)

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

−100

0

100

kVA

(a)

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

−100

0

100

(b)

kVA

2= 5R /5

/ " 56

$

% D0+D0+ ,

F"/%D0+/

56 2= 9 F,#/"

9 56 , "

# , 6 / /

% # /

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6:. # )4717981!

(70)

94

5

10

15

20

25

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

rmse(k)

(c)

150

200

250

300

350

−100

0

100

kVA

(a)

150

200

250

300

350

−100

0

100

(b)

kVA

2= 6R /6

/ " 9

$

% D0+D0+ ,

5 #

/ " 56 %/

! % $

$ = 5 , / #

)' +

%$/ ,$ %:

%%%

! % / , #

% "

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%

(71)

95

5

10

15

20

25

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

rmse(k)

(c)

150

200

250

300

350

−100

0

100

kVA

(a)

150

200

250

300

350

−100

0

100

(b)

kVA

2= 7R /6

/ " 56

$

% D0+D0+ ,

, *D0* + $

/

. "% D0+ *%

, Q / %

= 6 5 A$= 5

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#

% % /

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= 5 # /

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%,&/P2

= : */2= 6

. , "

(72)

96

5

10

15

20

25

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

rmse(k)

(c)

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

−100

0

100

kVA

(a)

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

−100

0

100

(b)

kVA

2 = :R / P

/"56

$

%

D0+ D0+ ,

/

* % 9 D*C ,

F "

(73)

97

5

10

15

20

25

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

rmse(k)

(c)

600

650

700

750

−100

0

100

kVA

(a)

600

650

700

750

−100

0

100

(b)

kVA

2 = =R / =

/ " 9

$

%

D0+ D0+ ,

A$= 5R D $

Q /

O

. 5 .6 .7

/ " 9 56 9 56 9 56

5 K K

6 K K

7 K K

: K K

= K K

9 K K

L K K

P K K

(74)

9:

5

10

15

20

25

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

rmse(k)

(c)

600

650

700

750

−100

0

100

kVA

(a)

600

650

700

750

−100

0

100

(b)

kVA

2 = 9R / =

/"56

$

%

(75)

9=

5

10

15

20

25

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

rmse(k)

(c)

850

900

950

1000

1050

−100

0

100

kVA

(a)

850

900

950

1000

1050

−100

0

100

(b)

kVA

2 = LR / L

/ " 9

$

%

(76)

99

5

10

15

20

25

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

rmse(k)

(c)

850

900

950

1000

1050

−100

0

100

kVA

(a)

850

900

950

1000

1050

−100

0

100

(b)

kVA

2 = PR / L

/"56

$

%

(77)

9L

5

10

15

20

25

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

rmse(k)

(c)

1150

1200

1250

1300

−100

0

100

kVA

(a)

1150

1200

1250

1300

−100

0

100

(b)

kVA

2 = QR / Q

/"56

$

%

(78)

"

0

%

!

, 03.

F$0*A3*$

* "

# #S 9 6 9 P

5 , G

6 G

7 , D*G

: , D*G

= G

9 G

(79)

9Q

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%

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IBF* "5 :9:

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I56: &

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*, %:

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A$ = 5 8 $

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(80)

L4

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½

J

¾

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Q/66:#

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59P/59P,

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5QQ9G 8" D 5QQQ

, =56

0) 3

! 7 = L,,

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(81)

L5

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29 5

29 5R +$ , 03.C

+& $

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¾

(82)

L6

¯ X 9℄R *

# D0+ ½

8 $ 9

* ,&

# %

¾

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$ 7 : =

+ R

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= 56 ,&G

¯ R 544

544 944 ,&

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00 /

""03.

#" - !-0*A3*M

8

R

¯ R ! *

=56/G

¯ R +

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½

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(83)

L7

¯ R %

½ %

¾

%

½

%

¾

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%

½ %

¾

$ G

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544 944 G

¯ /R / 5 Q

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45 $ Q "$ 6444

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9 = 9 9 #

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(84)

L:

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%

½

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¾

56 6 $ $ =44

2 9 6R *# / 5

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*/= %=94LP7

/ 6:$47"$6444

8 % $

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# / *

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29 :%

(85)

L=

168

170

172

174

176

178

−1

−0.5

0

0.5

1

(a)

kVA

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

200

300

400

500

600

700

(b)

kVA

hs

2 9 7R / 5

G $ %

W J

A$9 6R !% / =

%

½

%

¾

56 7 $ $ =44

/ 29 =

# , /

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(86)

L9

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6444

F"#

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½

%

¾

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, ,

$ 29 L

(87)

LL

730

735

740

745

750

755

760

765

770

775

780

−1

−0.5

0

0.5

1

(a)

kVA

560

580

600

620

640

660

680

700

720

740

760

200

300

400

500

600

700

kVA

hs

(b)

2 9 =R / =

G $ %

W J

& = *

" +

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% / %

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(88)

LP

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29 P

,9 P

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(89)

LQ

1008

1010

1012

1014

1016

1018

−1

−0.5

0

0.5

1

(a)

kVA

840

860

880

900

920

940

960

980

1000

1020

1040

200

300

400

500

600

700

kVA

hs

(b)

2 9 LR / L

G $ %

W J

05

.

" % R 0*.+

$ D0+ " # #

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,

$$8"

D5QQP 5QQQG 3 5QQ9GD 5QQQ *# 9 5

9 6 % $ %

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I 5

(90)

P4

1288

1290

1292

1294

1296

1298

−1

−0.5

0

0.5

1

(a)

kVA

1120

1140

1160

1180

1200

1220

1240

1260

1280

1300

1320

200

300

400

500

600

700

kVA

hs

2 9 PR / Q

G $ %

W J

+ I J 9 6 # ) %

8 $

/ % %

" /

" " ) I =

) I P ) I 54 ) I 56 A$ 9 =

9 9 %

(91)

P5

A$9 =R D % 0*.+ /5 =

L Q

, . / < < < <

= =96 5Q96 9:L 54=7

P :77 5L4= 9P5 Q9:

54 ::= 5:PP 995 QQL

56 :== 576P LL6 555P

, 0 1

< < < <

= 6Q: P79 5L65 5P9=

P 6Q: PQQ 5Q45 659P

54 696 P=6 64P5 5Q7:

56 746 P5L 5Q47 65=6

A$9 9R D% D0+ /5 =

L Q

, . , / , 0 , 1

= 4::== 55:49 4=:7P 55QP6

P 47=PP 5=4L5 4=545 5LQQP

54 4:7L9 5:5P5 4:=P6 5PLL9

56 4::45 5=767 4=54L 5P=9:

* $ A$ 9 = $&

#/

& / Q &

% =<

2" # /

A$9 = " , 2 9 Q #

# "

/ L / 5 / L /

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(92)

P6

168

170

172

174

176

178

200

300

400

500

600

700

(a)

kVA

hs

728

730

732

734

736

738

200

300

400

500

600

700

(b)

kVA

hs

1008

1010

1012

1014

1016

1018

200

300

400

500

600

700

(c)

kVA

hs

1288

1290

1292

1294

1296

1298

200

300

400

500

600

700

(d)

kVA

hs

2 9 QR D / 5 = $ L Q

R % W J ] 659L<

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4

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P9

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