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Pedro Portugal

Banco de Portugal

Departamento de Estudos Econ´omicos +351 21 312 84 10

Av. Almirante Reis, 71-6.oandar pportugal@bportugal.pt

1150-012 Lisboa, Portugal

Formac¸˜ao acad´emica

Faculdade de Economia do Porto Agregac¸˜ao em Economia, 1999 University of South Carolina

Doutoramento em Economia, 1991 Faculdade de Economia do Porto

Licenciatura em Economia, 1981

Experiˆencia profissional Banco de Portugal

Senior Researcher, Economics and Research Department, since 1996. Conselho Nacional para a Ciˆencia e Tecnologia,

Membro do Conselho, 2012-2015

Experiˆencia acad´emica

Faculdade de Economia Universidade Nova de Lisboa Professor, Economia, desde 1999

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Areas de especializac¸˜ao

Economia do Trabalho. Microeconometria. Economia da Ind´ustria.

Publicac¸˜oes

”On the Distributional Shape of Unemployment Duration”, com John T. Addison, Review of Economics and Statistics69, 1987.

”The Effect of Advance Notification of Plant Closings on Unemployment”, com John T. Addison, Industrial and Labor Relations Review 41, 1987.

”Job Loss and Job Change: Discussion by the Authors”, com John T. Addison, Industrial and Labor Relations Review41, 1987.

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”Job Displacement, Relative Wage Changes, and Duration of Unemployment”, com John T. Addison, Journal of Labor Economics 7, 1989.

”The Endogeneity of Union Status and the Application of the Hausman Test”, com John T. Addison, Journal of Labor Research 10, 1989.

”On the Costs of Worker Displacement: The Case of Dissipated Firm-Specific Training Investments”, com John T. Addison, Southern Economic Journal 55, 1989.

”Sample Definition and Specification Problems em Studies of the Effects of Unemployment Insurance on Unemployment Duration,” com John T. Addison, Industrial and Labor Relations Review43, 1990.

”Does Advance Notice Facilitate Better Job Matches?” com John T. Addison, Economics Letters1991.

”Prenotification of Impending Job Loss: From Voluntary Exchange to Mandated Benefits”, com John T. Addison, Industrial Relations 31, 1992.

”Advance Notice and Unemployment: New Evidence from the 1988 Displaced Worker Survey”, com John T. Addison, Industrial and Labor Relations Review 45, 1992.

”The Distributional Shape of Unemployment Duration: A Reply”, com John T. Addison, Review of Economic and Statistics74, 1992.

”Life Duration of New Firms”, com Jos´e Mata, Journal of Industrial Economics, 42, 1994 (reprinted em D. Audretsch and S. Klepper (ed.) Innovation, Evolution of Industry and Eco-nomic Growth, UK, 2000).

“Start-up Conditions and Post-Entry Evolution,“ com Jos´e Mata e Paulo Guimar˜aes, Inter-national Journal of Industrial Organisation, 13, 1995.

”Short and Long-Term Unemployment: a Parametric Model com Time-Varying Effects”, com John T. Addison, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 57, 1995.

“Some Specification Issues em Unemployment Duration Analysis,” com John T. Addison, Labour Economics5, 1998.

“Short and Long-term Unemployment,” com John T. Addison, Economics Letters, 66, 2000.

“The Exit Mode of Foreign Entrants: The Impact of Entry and Post-Entry Strategies,” com Jos´e Mata, Strategic Management Journal, 21, 2000.

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“Labour Market Outliers: Lessons from Portugal and Spain,” com Olympia Bover e Pilar Garc´ıa-Perea, Economic Policy, 31, 2000.

“What Hides behind an Unemployment Rate: Comparing Portuguese and U. S. Labor Mar-kets,” com Olivier Blanchard, American Economic Review, 91, 2001 (reprinted em J. T. Addison (ed.) Recent Developments em Labor Economics, UK, 2007).

“The Survival of Foreign and Domestic Firms,” com Jos´e Mata, Strategic Management Jour-nal, 23, 2002.

“Job Search Methods and Outcomes, ” com John T. Addison, Oxford Economic Papers, 54, 2002 (reprinted em J. T. Addison (ed.) Recent Developments em Labor Economics, UK, 2007).

“Unemployment Duration: Competing and Defective Risks,” com John T. Addison, Journal of Human Resources, 38, 2003 (reprinted em J. T. Addison (ed.) Recent Developments em Labor Economics, UK, 2007).

“Desincentive Effects of Unemployment Benefits on the Paths Out of Unemployment,” com John T. Addison, CESifo Forum, 5, 2004.

“Patterns of Entry, Post-Entry Growth, and Survival: A Comparison Between Domestic and Foreign Owned Firms,” com Jos´e Mata, Small Business Economics, 22, 2004.

“How Does the Unemployment Insurance System Shape the Time Profile of Jobless Du-ration?” com John T. Addison, Economics Letters, 85, 2004 (reprinted em J. T. Addison (ed.) Recent Developments em Labor Economics, UK, 2007).

“Contractual Wages and the Wage Cushion under Different Bargaining Settings,” com Ana Rute Cardoso, Journal of Labor Economics, 23, 2005.

“Disentangling the Minimum Wage Puzzle: An Analysis of Job Accessions and Separations from a Longitudinal Matched Employer-Employee Data Set,” com Ana Rute Cardoso, Journal of the European Economic Association, 4, 2006 (reprinted em J. T. Addison (ed.) Recent De-velopments em Labor Economics, UK, 2007).

“Employment Dynamics and the Structure of Labor Adjustment Costs,” com Jos´e Manuel Varej˜ao, Journal of Labor Economics, 25 2007.

“Market Power, Dismissal Threat, and Rent Sharing: The Role of Insider Outsider Forces em Wage Bargaining,“ com Anabela Carneiro, International Journal of Manpower, 29 2008.

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“Six Ways to Leave Unemployment,” com John T. Addison, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 55, 2008.

“Wages and the Risk of Displacement,” com Anabela Carneiro, Research em Labor Eco-nomics, 18, 2008.

“How Do Different Entitlements to Unemployment Benefits Affect the Transitions from Unemployment into Employment?” com John T. Addison, Economics Letters, 101, 2008.

“Do Reservation Wages Really Decline? Some International Evidence on the Determinants of Reservation Wages” com John T. Addison e M´ario Centeno, Journal of Labor Research, 30, 2009.

“Unemployment Benefits and Reservation Wages: Key Elasticities from a Stripped-Down Job Search Approach,” com John T. Addison e M´ario Centeno, Economica, 77, 2010.

“Founding Conditions and the Survival of New Firms,” com Paul Gerosky e Jos´e Mata, Strategic Management Journal, 31, 2010.

“A Simple Feasible Alternative to Fit High-Dimensional Fixed Effects Regression Models,” com Paulo Guimar˜aes, Stata Journal, 4, 2010.

“Real Wages and the Business Cycle: Accounting for Worker, Firm, and Job-Title Hetero-geneity,” com Anabela Carneiro e Paulo Guimar˜aes, American Economic Journal: Macroeco-nomics, 4(2), 2012.

“The Reservation Wage Unemployment Nexus,” com Jos´e Ant´onio Machado e John T. Ad-dison, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 75(6) 2013.

“Catastrophic Job Destruction during the Portuguese Economic Crises,” com Anabela Carneiro e Jos´e Varej˜ao, Journal of Macroeconomics, 39(PB) 2014.

“Labor Demand Research: Toward a Better Match between Better Theory and Better Data”, com John T. Addison e Jos´e Varej˜ao, Labour Economics, 30(C) 2014.

“The Termination of International Joint Ventures: Closure and Acquisition by Domestic and Foreign Partners,” com Jos´e Mata, International Business Review, 24(4) 2015.

“What Drives the Gender Wage Gap? A Look at the Role of Firm and Job-Title Hetero-geneity,” com Ana Rute Cardoso e Paulo Guimar˜aes, Oxford Economic Papers, 68(2) 2016.

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“Unions and Collective Bargaining em the Wake of the Great Recession,” com John T. Addison e Hugo Vilares, British Journal of Industrial Relations (forthcoming).

Livros

Exerc´ıcios de Econometria (com Mendes de Oliveira, ´Alvaro Aguiar, Armindo Carvalho, Vitorino Martins, e Victor Mendes), McGraw Hill, 1997.

Cap´ıtulos de livros

”Duration Models of Unemployment” em Job Displacement: Consequences and Implica-tions for Policy, John T. Addison (ed.) Wayne State University Press, Detroit, 1991, pp. 184-202.

”Advance Notice” em Job Displacement: Consequences and Implications for Policy, John T. Addison (ed.) Wayne State University Press, Detroit, 1991, pp. 203-43 (com John T. Addison).

“Advance Notice: From Voluntary Exchange to Mandated Benefits,” em Mario F. Bognano and Morris M. Kleiner (eds.), Labor Market Institutions and the Future Role of Unions, Oxford and Cambridge: Blackwell, 1992, pp. 159-78 (com John T. Addison).

“Technological Intensity, Demand Conditions and the Longevity of Firms,” em David B. Audresch e Roy Thurik (eds.), Innovation, Industry Evolution and Employment, Cambridge University Press, 1999 (com Jos´e Mata).

“Exploring Transition Data through Quantile Regression Methods: An Application to U. S Unemployment Duration,” em Yadolah Dodge (ed.), Statistics em Industry and Technol-ogy: Statistical Data Analysis Based on the L1-Norm and Related Methods, Birkhauser Basel, Switzerland, 2002 (com Jos´e Ant´onio Machado).

“Short- and Long-Term Unemployment: A Discrete Duration Model com Time-Varying Ef-fects,” em Addison and Welfens (ed.), Labor Markets and Social Security, 2nd edition, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 2003 (com John T. Addison).

“Matching Workers to Jobs em the Fast Lane: The Operation of Fixed-Term Contracts” em What Explains the Pattern of Labour Supply em Europe? editado por R. Gomez Salvador, A. Lamo, B. Petrongolo, M. Ward, e E. Wasmer, Kluwer Academic Press, 2005 (com Jos´e Varej˜ao).

“The impact of minimum wages on job flows.” em Low wage Employment em Europe: Perspectives for Improvement., editado por Marx e Wiemer Salverda Antwerp: Acco, 2005 (com Ana Rute Cardoso).

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“Wage Setting em the Portuguese Labor Market: A Microeconomic Approach.” em Cha-langes Ahead for the Portuguese Economy, editado por Francesco Franco, ICS, 2008.

“Subs´ıdios e Durac¸˜ao do Desemprego,” em Portugal sem Fronteiras, editado por Pedro Lains, ICS, 2009.

“Worker and Firm Heterogeneity em the Determination of Wages,” com S´onia Torres, Cader-nos Sociedade e Trabalho, 15, MTSS, 2011.

Working Papers

“Unions and Collective Bargaining em the Wake of the Great Recession,” com John T. Addison e Hugo Vilares (under revision, British Journal of Industrial Relations).

“Decomposing the Wage Losses of Displaced Workers: The Role of the Reallocation of Workers into Firms and Job Titles,” com Pedro Raposo e Anabela Carneiro

“Sources of the Union Wage Gap: Results from High-Dimensional Fixed Effects Regression Models,” com John T. Addison e Hugo Vilares

“Seriously Strengthening the Tax-Benefit Link,” com Pedro Raposo.

“The Sources of Wage Heterogeneity: An Analysis Using Matched Employer-Employee Data,“ com S´onia Torres, John T. Addison e Paulo Guimar˜aes.

“Increasing the legal retirement age: The impact on wages, worker flows and firm perfor-mance,” com Pedro Martins e ´Alvaro Novo.

“Earnings Losses of Displaced Workers: Evidence from a Matched Employer-Employee Dataset,” com Anabela Carneiro.

“The Hidden Side of Temporary Employment: Fixed-term Contracts as a Screening De-vice,” com Jos´e Varej˜ao.

“Joblessness,” com Jos´e Ant´onio Machado e Pedro Raposo.

“Borrowing Patterns, Bankruptcy and Voluntary Liquidation,” com Ant´onio Antunes e Jos´e Mata.

“Labor Adjustment Costs em a Panel of Establishments: A Structural Approach,” com Jo˜ao Ejarque.

”Reservation Wages, Search Duration, and Accepted Wages em Europe”, com John T. Ad-dison e M´ario Centeno.

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“Aggregation and the Estimation of Labor Demand Functions,” com Jos´e Varej˜ao.

“U.S. Unemployment Duration: Has long become longer or has short become shorter?” com Jos´e Ant´onio Machado e Juliana Guimar˜aes.

“The Sources of Wage Variation: A Three-Way High-Dimensional Fixed Effects Model,“ com S´onia Torres, John T. Addison e Paulo Guimar˜aes.

Work in Progress

“Inferences about the mean of renewal processes under stock sampling,” com Jos´e Ant´onio Machado.

“Job (Ins)tability,” com Jos´e Ant´onio Machado e Pedro Raposo.

“The Influence of Minimum Wages and Local Labor Conditions on the Entry and Exit of Firms,” com Paulo Guimar˜aes.

“The Sources of Wage Dispersion,“ com Ana Rute Cardoso e Paulo Guimar˜aes. “Productivity, Unit Labor Costs and Competitiveness,” com S´onia F´elix.

“Going after the Addiction, not the Addicted: The Impact of Decriminalization em Portu-gal,” com Ana Tavares.

“Drug Decriminalization and the Price of Illicit Drugs,” com S´onia F´elix.

“The Determinants of Newly-Hired Wages: The Role of Internal and External Bargaining Institutions,” com Fernando Martins e Paulo Guimar˜aes.

Artigos no Boletim Econ´omico do Banco de Portugal

“Durac¸˜ao de uma Experiˆencia Individual de Desemprego,” Boletim Econ´omico do Banco de Portugal, Junho 1996.

“Mobilidade e Desemprego no Mercado de Trabalho,” com M´onica Dias, Boletim Econ´omico do Banco de Portugal, Setembro 1997.

“Volatilidade do Emprego, Protecc¸˜ao ao Emprego e Desemprego,” Boletim Econ´omico do Banco de Portugal, Dezembro 1999.

“Os Sal´arios da Func¸˜ao P´ublica,” com M´ario Centeno, Boletim Econ´omico do Banco de Portugal, Setembro 2001.

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“Mitos e Factos sobre o Mercado de Trabalho Portuguˆes: a Tr´agica Fortuna dos Licencia-dos” Boletim Econ´omico do Banco de Portugal, Marc¸o 2004.

“O Esgotamento do Modelo de Sal´arios Baixos,” Boletim Econ´omico do Banco de Portugal, Outono, 2006.

“O Impacto Econ´omico do Aumento da Idade da Reforma: Lic¸˜oes da Alterac¸˜ao da Lei de Setembro de 1986,” com Pedro Martins e ´Alvaro Novo, Boletim Econ´omico do Banco de Portugal, Ver˜ao 2007.

“A Durac¸˜ao do Desemprego em Portugal,” Boletim Econ´omico do Banco de Portugal, In-verno 2008.

“Sobre a Sensibilidade C´ıclica dos Sal´arios,” com Anabela Carneiro e Paulo Guimar˜aes, Boletim Econ´omico do Banco de Portugal, Inverno 2010.

”D´ıvida e Extinc¸˜ao das Empresas”, com Ant´onio Antunes e Jos´e Mata, Relat´orio de Esta-bilidade Financeira do Banco de Portugal, 2011.

“Sobre os Sindicatos, a Taxas de Sindicalizac¸˜ao e o Pr´emio Sindical”, com Hugo Vilares, Boletim Econ´omico do Banco de Portugal, 2013.

“Ajustamentos Salariais durante a Grande Recess˜ao,” com Fernando Martins, Boletim Econ´omico do Banco de Portugal, 2014.

Avaliac¸˜oes para Revistas

Quarterly Journal of Economics, American Economic Review, American Journal of Eco-nomics: Macroeconomics, Journal of European Economic Association, Economic Policy, Re-view of Economics and Statistics, European Economic ReRe-view, Oxford Economic Papers, Jour-nal of Labor Economics, Industrial and Labor Relation Review, Labour Economics.

Outras atividades

Membro do Conselho Nacional da Ciˆencia e Tecnologia.

Membro eleito do Comit´e Executivo da European Association of Labour Economists (EALE). Editor associado de Portuguese Economic Journal.

Membro do painel editorial do Journal of International Economics and Economic Policy. Research fellow at IZA.

Membro do Conselho Cient´ıfico do Observatory of Science, Technology and Education. Vela.

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Membro de AEA

EALE

Econometric Society

Forum para a Competitividade

Pr´emios e distinc¸˜oes

Scientific Merit Award Santander-Totta Universidade Nova de Lisboa, 2011.

Winning Research Paper Prize, given by the Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs and the Industrial Relations Center, Carlson School of Management, University of Minnesota, 1990.

Outstanding Academic Performance- Pr´emio atribu´ıdo pelo Departamento de Economia da University of South Carolina, 1988.

Graduate Career Awardem Social and Behavioral Sciences by the SIGMA XI the Scientific Society, 1988.

Fellowship given by the Banco Portuguˆes do Atlˆantico (1982).

Fellowship given by the Instituto Nacional de Investigac¸˜ao Cient´ıfica (1984-88).

Referências

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