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Application of the lean startup methodology

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Abstract

The combination of triathlon and training presents a huge market opportunity for new business models. In entrepreneurship, the Lean Startup concept has gained significant popularity providing a scientific and structured process to use continuous innovation to create radically successful businesses. Seizing the opportunity presented, the vision on which this thesis is build is to help people train better while creating a sustainable business according to LS principles. Focused on the customer discovery process, this paper identifies the smallest solution with the most focused set of features that will drive a customer purchase by validating the customer, problem and solution hypotheses.

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Table of Contents

Abstract II

List of Abbreviations III

1. Introduction 1

2. Literature Review 2

3. Lean Startup Methodology 4

3.1. Basic Principles Guiding Lean Startups 4

3.2. The Lean Startup Process 6

4. Ressearch Methodology 7

5. Analysis 10

5.1. Testing Market Interested in new Triathlon and Training BMs 10

5.2. Customer-Problem Discovery 11

5.2.1. Inside of the Building: Defining Customer Segments 11 5.2.2. 1st Loop – Testing the Problem and the Customer Hypothesis 13 5.2.3. Inside of the Building: Modifying the Problem Hypothesis 14 5.2.4. 2nd Loop: Testing the Modified Problem Hypothesis 14 5.2.5. Inside of The Building: Analysis of Market Attractiveness 16

5.3. Problem-Solution Discovery 17

5.3.1. Inside of the Building: Identifying Target Solution 17 5.3.2. 3rd Loop: Testing the Solution Hypothesis and Smoke Test 18 5.3.3. Inside of the Building: Modifying the Solution Hypothesis 21 5.3.4. 4th Loop: Testing the Modified Solution Hypothesis and Market Interest 22

6. Conclusion and Roadmap 25

References 27

List of Abbreviations

BM Business Model

BMC Business Model Canvas

BML Build Measure Learn

BP Business Plan

LBMC Lean Business Model Canvas

LS Lean Startup

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1. Introduction

Triathlon is considered one of the fastest growing sports in the world (Vidal, 2016). The number of ‘active racing triathletes’1worldwide has been growing by approximately ten percent annually during the years of 2009-20142 (Roethenbaugh, 2015). This is why many triathletes from all over the world are seeking help with regards to training in order to thrive on race day. The combination of triathlon and training presents a huge market opportunity for innovative ideas and new business models. In the field of entrepreneurship, the Lean Startup (LS) concept has gained significant popularity providing a scientific and structured process to use continuous innovation to create radically successful businesses. Focused on business-hypothesis-driven experimentation, validated learning and iterative product releases, the LS methodology aims to teach entrepreneurs how to build a sustainable business in the most efficient way. Seizing the opportunity presented in the triathlon and training market, the vision on which this thesis is build is to help people train better while creating a sustainable business according to LS principles. The overarching purpose of this thesis is to find the business model creating the maximum value to the customer while simultaneously maximizing the odds of success.

This thesis contributes to the state-of-the-art research in the field of the LS methodology, providing valuable insights on how to practically apply LS methodologies to start a business from scratch. It not only proves valuable for academics but also for soon-to-be entrepreneurs, who are searching for inspiration on how to structure their first steps. Moreover, content wise, this thesis provides a thorough analysis of the needs and aspirations of triathletes.

Focused on the customer discovery process, this paper sets out to answer the subsequent research question: What is the smallest solution with the most focused set of features that will drive a customer purchase? In other words, the purpose of this study is to identify the minimum

1

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viable product (MVP) to be build (Furr and Ahlstrom, 2011). First, a literature review is conducted, followed by an examination of LS principles, building the theoretical foundation of this paper. The research methodology is described prior to turning to the analytical part concerned with the validation of the customer, problem and solution hypotheses. Finally, the results are presented in the conclusion.

From this point onwards, the business that is created during this research is named “Endurio”, a name that is dedicated to endurance sports.

2. Literature Review

This part of the thesis presents the prevailing frameworks and concepts in the field of ‘how to start a business’ to set the scene and clarify issues (McKay and Marshall, 2001).

On a strategic level, a well-structured and thought through operating and financial plan has long been seen as a core component of entrepreneurship, not only from investors and academics but also from entrepreneurs themselves (Hills, 1988; Gruber, 2007; Lange et al., 2007). However, the use and significance of business plan (BP) writing in early stage startups has been questioned in recent years (Blank, 2006; Ries, 2011; Maurya, 2012). Within the academic world, the debate on the usefulness of BPs in early-stage startups has brought forward two opposing camps: BP proponents and critics. While BP proponents state that superior performance of startups is based on the structured, formal and forecasting-oriented planning approach of BPs (Shane and Delmar, 2004; Brinckmann, Grichnik and Kapsa, 2010); BP critics argue that business planning runs the risks of resulting in cognitive rigidities in which the startups are not free to change directions (Vesper, 1992). Since early-stage startups are operating in a setting of extreme uncertainty, the process of learning, adapting and regulating resources is considered to be very valuable (Brinckmann et al., 2010). Thus, conservative planning methods (following an inflexible plan) are claimed to impede the process of learning and thus progressing (McGrath and MacMillan, 1995). In fact, it is stated that almost no BP

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survives the first customer contact because of the unpredictability of a startup’s first year and that 66% of the startups drastically divert from their original plans (Blank, 2006; Maurya, 2012). Thus, Osterwalder and Pigneur (2010) introduced the concept of a Business Model (BM) in form of a Business Model Canvas (BMC), which has been further developed to a Lean Business Model Canvas (LBMC) by Maurya (2012). A LBMC basically represents a BP on one page, consisting of nine building blocks3 that can be systematically validated. First reaching a problem/solution fit, second a product/market fit and third scaling (ibid.). Many scholars argued that a startup’s business model shall be identified and validated before wasting valuable time writing a BP that is based on a chain of assumptions made by the founder (Blank, 2006; Osterwalder and Pigneur, 2010; Ries, 2011).

On a process level, entrepreneurship has long taken classical management concepts such as Product Management or Waterfall Development as a blueprint on how to set up a startup and how to innovate (Blank, 2006; Furr and Ahlstrom, 2011). Thereby disregarding the difference between more mature firms operating with relatively known variables and startups operating in extreme uncertainty (McGrath and MacMillan, 1995; Furr and Ahlstrom, 2011). In contrast to larger companies where the focus can be laid on ‘execution’ (Sull, 2004; Blank, 2006); early phase startups are considered to focus on the ‘search’ of the right business model. Therefore, concepts such as Customer Development, which is an iterative process of trying to figure out who your customer is and agile development, which is a fast-release, iterative software development, emerged helping entrepreneurs to navigate (Beck, 2004; Blank, 2006). The Lean Startup (LS), a relatively new concept in entrepreneurship, gained popularity providing a scientific and structured process to creating and managing startups (Ries, 2011). To assist entrepreneurs in the process of practically applying the LS concept, several tools and concepts are available (McClure, 2007; Osterwalder and Pigneur, 2010; Maurya, 2012; Marsh, 2013).

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3. Lean Startup Methodology

“Entrepreneurship is fundamentally a process that can be learned” -Eric Ries

In this part of the paper, the concept of LS is discussed in more detail, especially focusing on the basic principles guiding a ‘lean’ startup. This part aims to lay the theoretical foundation of this paper.

Focused on business-hypothesis-driven experimentation, validated learning and iterative product releases, the Lean Startup methodology aims to teach entrepreneurs how to build a sustainable business in the most efficient way. The underlying hypothesis being that if products or services are iteratively built to meet customers’ needs, a startup is not only able to save money and time but also to reduce market risks (Ries, 2011). Thus, according to Maurya (2012), a startup is able to minimize its risks of failure and to increase its odds of success. Since various scholars and entrepreneurs have shaped the Lean Startup movement, the following section is concerned with the examination of the basic principles guiding lean startups.

3.1. Basic Principles Guiding Lean Startups

A lean startup is in the service of creating and delivering value to customers. In the beginning of a startup both the customers and the value created are two unknowns. What entrepreneurs believe to be true is said to be an educated guess. Thus, the lean startup idea is about proving your business model by validating as many assumptions as possible (Cooper and Vlaskovits, 2013). There are several important principles guiding startups aspiring to ‘be lean’. In the following, these principles are studied in more detail.

Definition of a Startup: According to Eric Ries (2011, p. 27), a startup is “a human institution designed to create something new under conditions of extreme uncertainty”. Thus, everybody who is fundamentally operating in extreme uncertainty about their customers, what products they want and how to build a sustainable business is an entrepreneur per definition. That is regardless of the industry, the firm size or the sector of the economy they are operating

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in. Therefore, entrepreneurs are everywhere not only in young ventures but also in large corporations (Ries, 2011).

Going Outside of the Building: According to Blank (2006), what entrepreneurs lack most in the early beginning of their startups is facts. Everything that has been developed ‘inside of the building’ is believed to be a series of untested hypothesis. The job of an entrepreneur is thus to turn those hypotheses into facts by going ‘outside of the building’ as quickly as possible (physically or virtually if web-mobile business model). In fact, Blank (2006) is convinced that to find the right business model, founders need to spend at least 20% of their time understanding customer’s problems and needs and how they match with the planned product feature set. Blank (2006, p. 4) observed that most “startups don’t fail because they lack a product; they fail because they lack customers”. Therefore, customer discovery (does your product solve a problem for an identifiable group of users?) and customer validation (do you have the right product, which solves the customers’ problems?) are crucial parts of a startup’s way to success (Cooper and Vlaskovits, 2010).

Pivot if Necessary: In the business model search phase, the entrepreneur is able to pivot the proposed business model assumptions if necessary to follow and test other guesses (Ries, 2011). A pivot is defined as a “structured course correction designed to test a new fundamental hypothesis” (ibid., p. 149). Simply said, it is a change in course or strategy while staying grounded in what has been learned. Ultimately, the aim is to either find the right business model or to realize that there is no or only an insufficient market to create the business the entrepreneur aspires for.

The Importance of Validated Learning: The main reason why startups exist is to learn how to develop a sustainable business around its vision. Validated learning is the process of scientifically validating the startup’s business model hypotheses (Ries, 2011). Due to validated learning, entrepreneurs are not only able to discover valuable realities about its present and

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future business prospects but are also able to uncover and eradicate sources of waste, which overall saves valuable time and money (Furr and Ahlstrom, 2011). Every action a startup undertakes is thus to be regarded as an experiment aimed to attain validated learning (Ries, 2011). Therefore, validated learning is seen as a tool to measure progress in a startup.

Be Quick to Iterate: Turning ideas into products, assessing customers’ reactions and learning if to pivot or to persevere is the central endeavour of every startup (Maurya, 2012). This process is visualized as the Build-Measure-Learn (BML) feedback loop. All activities in a startup are to be designed to minimize the total time through the loop in order to reduce the time between the pivots and thus to increase the startup’s odds of success (Ries, 2011).

Prevent Premature Scaling: What is meant with premature scaling is that founders waste money on growing the business before reaching a product/market fit, which is believed to be one of the main causes of failure as a startup (Furr and Ahlstrom, 2011). According to Blank (2006), a startup’s business model needs to be identified and validated before it is scaled.

Minimum Viable Product: According to Furr and Ahlstrom (2011, p.95), a minimum viable product is “the smallest, most focused set of features that will drive a customer purchase”. Maurya (2012) argues that a minimum viable product should not only include a minimum feature set but also be concerned with the price point and thus defines MVP as the smallest solution that can be build delivering value to the customer while capturing some of that value. Furr and Ahlstrom’s (2011) definition of MVP is used throughout this paper.

3.2. The Lean Startup Process

“The odds are that anything you’re thinking about customers and markets are nothing more than a guess.” -Steve Blank

When creating a startup according to lean principles, entrepreneurs need to go through a scientific process of hypothesis testing. This process is to be repeated until all core hypotheses are validated (Newman, 2012). In this case, a business model fit has successfully been reached. For the purpose of this research, these steps are applied until the purpose of the paper, to find

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the smallest solution with the most focused set of features that will drive a customer purchase, has been attained. Thus, a problem/solution fit is to be reached.

(1) Hypothesis Formulation. First, the core hypotheses are proposed (customer, problem and solution). However, in the first run a solution hypothesis is not defined because (1) the problem has not been validated yet and (2) every problem has multiple solutions. Therefore, if one were to start with the solution other and potentially better opportunities to solve the problem might be overlooked (Golinsky, 2014).

(2) Experimental Design. Second, an experiment to achieve validated learning is designed. What should be considered here is, what do I need to learn about my business? There are three methods of experimentation. Namely, (1) exploration: customer interviews, (2) pitch or smoke test: collect currency (anything that customers are willing to give up such as email address, names or phone numbers) and (3) concierge: personally delivering the product to the customer (using a prototype). The three methods increase in cost of testing (ibid.). Moreover, a minimum success criterion for the experiment needs to be defined to measure the result of the testing. It represents the weakest outcome accepted as validation.

(3) Experimentation. At this stage, the founder needs to go out of the building and conduct the experiment.

(4a+b) Pivot or Persevere? The results of the testing are analysed. If the minimum success criterion is not met, the experiment invalidates the current hypothesis and one of the core hypotheses needs to be pivoted. If it is met, it is validated and the next hypothesis can be tested.

4. Research Methodology

This part of the paper presents the methodological approach used in this study. The research design guiding this study is developed with the use of literature. Moreover, the process of data collection is described.

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In the practice of research there are two prominent research approaches, namely inductive and deductive. While the deductive approach uses an existing theory as a starting point, the inductive approach formulates a new theory as a result of data analysis (Bryman and Bell 2003). This thesis is based on a deductive approach, applying lean startup methodology to find the best BM helping triathletes to train better. What research strategy to choose highly depends upon the research question (Yin, 2009). A “what” question such as in this study can be characterized as a prevalence or exploratory type (ibid.). Since the main aim of this research is to find the smallest solution with the most focused set of features that will drive a customer purchase (MVP), this thesis is of exploratory nature. According to Babbie (1989), an exploratory strategy is recommended when the issue or problem is relatively unknown. Thus, in accordance with the purpose of this thesis, an explorative research design was chosen.

This paper is of both quantitative and qualitative nature but concentrates on the latter. A combination of both methods is useful when a strictly quantitative approach is not possible (Sekaran, 1992). According to Quinn (2002), a qualitative research approach is especially valuable when there is no single truth to be found. The qualitative data is from high importance for this thesis since deep understanding of triathletes’ training habits and problems needs to be gained. According to Töpfer (2012), the quantitative approach is used to validate and reduce the possibility of errors. This thesis used the quantitative data to test whether general market interest exists and on a small scale to verify results from the qualitative research. Primary and secondary data was used throughout this paper (Churchill, 1983). The primary data was collected via a survey, interviews, google/Facebook analytics and observations.

To test whether general market interest in triathlon and training business models exist, a survey has been set up via qualtrics. The survey provides a quantitative analysis. It was posted in various international Facebook groups and different forums concerned with triathlon,

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running, swimming or cycling. In total, the survey was kept online for a month recording 180 participants from all over the world. 39 participants did not finish the study until the end.

In accordance with the qualitative nature of this thesis, it was decided to work with a selected group of four triathletes throughout this research. As the focus of the interviews was to gain a deeper understanding of the triathletes’ needs and not to receive market validation, a small number of interviewees was regarded as more valuable (Maurya, 2012). Moreover, since the time frame of the interview process could not be predicted in the beginning of the research (as number of pivots was still unknown), a rather small group of interviewees assured that special attention could be paid to each participant, preventing people to quit the study early. To create a representative group of triathletes fitting into the target customer segment, the interviewees were selected according following criteria: (1) previous endurance sports experience (all three sports: swimming, cycling, running need to be represented), (2) triathlon experience (from rather inexperienced to very experienced), (3) next distance to train for (Olympic or long distance), (4) gender (at least one woman), (5) nationality (at least two different nationalities) and (6) age (20-60 years). The potential interviewees were identified via the personal and professional network and contacted by telephone and email. The interviews were semi-structured, providing room for deviation if necessary. At some stages, specific interview techniques have been used to get to the root of the customers’ thoughts. They are elaborated more specifically when used. In total, 16 interviews were conducted, four at each stage of the process. Due to the geographical distance of the researcher and the interviewees, the interviews were conducted via Skype video call. Throughout the interviews, the interviewer stayed unbiased and pursued her line of investigation (Yin, 2009). For detailed interview results please see Appendix C: Interviews.

Google and Facebook analytics was used to assess the market response to the landing and Facebook page and to the website, which have been created throughout the research.

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Secondary data was mainly retrieved from books and journals found in the library and online databases, videos and literature. Due to the relatively new field of Lean Startup, a lot of connected information was solely found online. The analysis of the data represented a constant process throughout the timeframe of the research where data collection and analysis were simultaneously performed

5. Analysis

5.1. Testing Market Interested in new Triathlon and Training BMs

In a first step, an experiment has been designed to validate if people were generally interested in the topic of triathlon and training and especially if they were interested in new business models in this area. Therefore, an extensive survey about the athletes’ demographics, triathlon training habits, problems and needs has been set up. Initially, it was posted in 26 different international Facebook groups (seven posts were only shown as visitors’ posts) and nine different forums concerned with triathlon, running, swimming or cycling. The underlying hypothesis being that if athletes were dedicated to filling out this 10 minutes long survey, they show significant interest in new business models in the triathlon and training market. The text posted above the survey, thus stated that the athletes’ experiences and insights were needed to help verifying new BMs in the triathlon and training market (cf. Appx. A: Fig. 1: Facebook Post). The defined minimum success criterion was that within two days 100 people were to fill out the survey.

After two days 119 people from all over the world had filled out the survey confirming the hypothesis that (tri)athletes are generally interested in new business models in the triathlon and training market. Moreover, valuable quantitative data was collected, facilitating the customer segmentation process that followed next. For data collection purposes the survey was kept online for a month. In total, there were 180 respondents mainly from the UK, the US, Australia and Germany.

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5.2. Customer-Problem Discovery

“Successful companies build great products that customers need.” -Steve Blank

According to Maurya (2012), in early-stage startups the riskiest part of the business model is the customer segment and the problem. That is because every part of the business model builds upon the customers and their problems. If the customer-problem fit has been identified incorrectly or has not been validated, startups run the risk of building products or services no one desires. Hence, a thorough discovery, identification and validation of the customers and their problems creates a strong foundation for the rest of the business model and is a first step to success. Ultimately, reaching a customer-problem fit means circumventing building products that nobody wants and thus, loosing money.

5.2.1. Inside of the Building: Defining Customer Segments

To facilitate the research, the broad customer category of ‘people interested in triathlon and training’ has been split into smaller verticals (Maurya, 2012). Especially as a startup, it is important not to try to be ‘all things to all people’ but at first focus time and energy on a selected group of people (Cooper and Vlaskovits, 2013). In a setting of uncertainty, classical marketing segmentation criteria such as demographics cannot be applied. That is because while they help to classify customers that already exist, they fail to tell entrepreneurs anything about the customers’ needs or desires. Thus, Cooper and Vlaskovits’ (2013) definition of customer segment has been applied; A customer segment is made of people who share the same pain or passion and who speak the same language. Meaning that people in the same segment are able to refer to each other for solutions to their problems or address their passions. Each of the customer segments, thus potentially represents a different business model, a different product (Maurya, 2012). Building on the data collected during the survey, the defined customer segments read as follows: professional triathletes, ambitious triathletes, not-just-yet triathletes,

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segment to pick and work with first based on internally developed criteria such as general knowledge about the customer segment, ease of reach and founders’ enthusiasm to serve this segment. To better track the process, a customer segment matrix has been used listing the different customer segments and its criteria, see Appendix B, Table 1: CSM for more detail.

‘Ambitious triathletes’ has been selected as the most convincing customer segment because they are easy to reach through Facebook groups, open to talk about their triathlon experiences and represent a large number of people. In the following, a customer archetype has been sketched describing the ‘ambitious triathlete’ in more detail. Defining a customer archetype is important to get a first understanding of who to talk to first when going outside of the building (Maurya, 2012).

Customer Archetype

‘Harvey’ is an active racing triathlete, who participates in 2+ races per year and trains approximately 10 hours per week (Roethenbaugh, 2015). He has been practicing the sports of triathlon for 3 years (cf. Appx. A: Fig. 5: Years of Practicing Triathlon). He has participated in sprint distances and his next challenge is a longer distance triathlon. He is a member of a triathlon club but he mostly trains individually (cf. Appx. A: Fig. 2: Training Habits). What he misses the most in his training is new training content. He owns his own triathlon equipment and is rather a big spender, his total triathlon expenditure lays at 3500 EUR per year (Roethenbaugh, 2015). He does triathlon to ‘relax’ and to pursue a new challenge. He probably practiced one of the three sports successfully before turning to triathlon. He holds a university degree and is a full-time employee living in a metropolitan area (cf. Appx. A: Fig. 3: Highest Level of Education; Fig. 4: Employment Status). He does not have a lot of free time and is tightly scheduled, which is why he needs to make extra time for his training. Basically, he needs to train whenever he has a minute to spare. He wishes for positive competition because that gets him excited. Moreover, he wants to track his performance over time to see how he has

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improved. Harvey continuously works to improve his performance to step up his game. Costs do not play such a big role. Personalized trainings would be the best for him because it is the most efficient way to get better. It has been observed that he has problems finding a good coach that will take him to the next level with regards to performance.

The outlined persona, its behaviours, problems and needs is based on the data retrieved from the survey, background research, observations and on the founder’s educated guess. In a next step it is thus important to learn if these assumptions can be validated or need to be modified by going outside of the building.

5.2.2. 1st Loop: Testing the Problem and the Customer Hypothesis

The first customer and problem hypothesis that was designed to be tested reads as follows: It is believed that people like Harvey - ambitious triathlete - have problems finding a personal coach. The method chosen for this test was exploration, thus personal interviews. The interview evolved around the customers’ role as a triathlete, training habits and main problems. Moreover, the ‘5 Whys method’ has been used to gain an even deeper understanding of the problems people like Harvey indicated to have in the interviews. The basic idea of the ‘5 Whys approach’ is to start with a customer problem, which is usually a surface pain or symptom and then to ask the interviewee why this is a problem five times to get to the root of the customers’ problem (Ries, 2011). The minimum success criterion was defined as three out of four interviewees indicating that they have this problem when asking them about their three main problems as an ‘ambitious triathlete’.

The results of the interviews show that none of the interviewees indicated that they had problems finding a coach. Much the contrary, finding a coach was perceived as being rather “easy”. Thereby, confirming the results of the survey (cf. Appx. A: Fig. 6: Triathlon Coach). Mostly, coaches were found via the local triathlon club or recommendations of other triathletes and friends. What has been mentioned quite often is that the coach is perceived as a means to

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receive a triathlon training schedule (TTS) that is adapted to their life and training progress rather than giving real-time feedback. Only in two cases the interviewees said that they have engaged a coach for the improvement of their swimming technique. All of the interviewees indicated that they rather train individually than with a coach or in a triathlon club because of their tight work and family schedule. For them it is important that the triathlon training is adjustable to their ‘busy lifestyle’ and their training progress. The number one customer problems and needs could be identified as: “tailored training schedule to personal needs” (Rondini, 2016), “training schedule that is suited to my current fitness level and oriented to my personal goals” (Proske, 2016), “prevent repetitive training session and boredom” (Paul, 2016) and “flexibility” (Kaiser, 2016).

In conclusion, the minimum success criterion has not been met, which is why either the customer or the problem hypothesis needs to be pivoted. Since the experiment confirmed some of the data from the survey, validated characteristics about the customer archetype and provided valuable insights about the customer segment’s problem, it was decided to change the problem hypothesis while sticking to the customer segment.

5.2.3. Inside of The Building: Modifying the Problem Hypothesis

Before conducting a second experiment with a new problem hypothesis, the insights of the previous experiments have been grouped and analysed. As a result, receiving a triathlon training schedule that is dynamically adapted to the life and training progress of the athlete has been identified as the main need of ‘ambitious triathletes’.

5.2.4. 2nd Loop: Testing the Modified Problem Hypothesis

Therefore, the second customer and problem hypothesis that was tested reads as follows: It is believed that people like Harvey - fulltime manager and ambitious triathlete - have the need for a TTS that dynamically adapts to their life and training progress. The method chosen for this test was personal interviews. This time, however, the interview was completely focused on the

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problem hypothesis. It thus evolved around the importance of the described problem to the customer, how the problem has been solved so far and the rating of the importance of the problem in a five step rating system4. Christensens’ (2003) ‘Jobs to be done’ technique has been used to get a better understating of the underlying customer problems. The basic idea of this concept is that customers hire your product to get a job done. This is often something they have already been trying to do but mostly insufficiently or even unsuccessfully. Once this job has been correctly identified, the entrepreneur is in a much better position to pinpoint the underlying problem and eventually define a solution for that (ibid.). The minimum success criterion has been defined as three out of four interviewees indicating that this is a need where a solution is at least nice to have.

In fact, all of the interviewees agreed that this is a relevant need “since Triathlon requires long training hours that interfere with work and private life” (Rondini, 2016). While three interviewees indicated that it would be nice to have a solution for this problem, one said that a solution is a must-have. All argued that even though they were very passionate about the sports of triathlon, the training plays a subordinate role in their lives. It does not mean that the training is not from high importance but that there are other factors such as work, family and friends, which are prioritized in most of the cases. Nonetheless, all of the interviewees seemed to be very ambitious and serious about their goals and are continuously trying to improve performance. One specifically stated that “you can not achieve your best if sticking to a rigid and non-personalized schedule” (Kaiser, 2016). Until now, none was able to get access to a TTS that adapts to the progress in training as well as to organizational changes. Three out of four interviewees pointed out that they have tried to build their own TTS with the help of videos, books, magazines or friends. However, the process was perceived as quite bothersome because it took valuable time and know-how to do so. One indicated that a friend had written one. Two

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interviewees indicated that in times of more free time they were able to join fixed training sessions in a triathlon club. In both cases the coach of the club was willing to write a TTS on request. However, what has been indicated is that the TTSs are not as personalized for non-professional triathletes as for non-professional triathletes. Next to a lack of personalization, both of the interviewees did not see this as the optimal solution. This is very important for triathletes because throughout the distinctive stages of the preparation phase, the focus of the training content also changes and constant adaption is needed (Kaiser, 2016).

Since all of the interviewees agreed that the proposed need is worth solving, the problem hypothesis was validated. Thus, a customer-problem fit has been reached and reads as follows: ‘Ambitious triathletes’ have the need for a triathlon training schedule that dynamically adapts to their life and training progress.

5.2.5. Inside of The Building: Analysis of Market Attractiveness

Before formulating a solution hypothesis and moving on with the LS process, it is important to evaluate the attractiveness of the chosen market. According to Furr and Ahlstrom (2011), two main factors are to be studied: market size and growth as well as competition.

For the purpose of identifying the market size of ambitious triathletes having the need for a triathlon training schedule that dynamically adapts to their life and training progress, the total number of ambitious triathletes worldwide has been researched. The number of active racing triathletes amounted to 2.8 million in 2015 (Roethenbaugh, 2015). Adding an estimate of 300k athletes, who officially have not yet participated in a triathlon (based on 10% CAGR from 2009 to 2014), the number of ambitious triathletes thus reaches an estimate of 3.1 million. Hereby, it has to be noted that this number includes professional triathletes that are not part of the target segment. Yet, the number of professional triathletes is estimated to be inferior to 1000 and was hence regarded as insignificant for the market size estimation. Since the vast majority of ambitious triathletes is facing a tight personal and professional schedule (ibid), it was estimated

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that 90% of ambitious triathletes have the need for a training schedule that dynamically adapts to their life next to their training progress. This leaves a total market size of 2.79 million, which is believed to be sufficient. The number of triathletes worldwide has been constantly growing at a CAGR of 10% over the past years, indicating a general growth of the market. Moreover, the triathlon industry confidence5 concerning customer demand has increased by 6.8 index points from 2015 to 2016 (TBI, 2016).

A competitor analysis has shown that Endurio mainly competes with triathlon clubs, personal coaches, self-made solutions and apps specialized on one of the three endurance sports. The following apps are regarded as close competitors: (1) First Time Triathlon: Offers TTSs but for beginners only, (2) My Tri Swim Coach: Aimed to improve swim technique by offering a compilation of YouTube videos, (3) Training Peaks: tracks performance, (4) Triathlon App: Information on training methods, (5) 2Peak: tailored TTS but not easy to use.

Concluding, market size and growth show convincing figures and there are no direct competitors. The market has hence been identified as very attractive.

5.3. Problem-Solution Discovery

Since the customers and the target problem is well understood and validated and the market has been identified as attractive, a solution can be defined. According to Maurya (2012), it is important to emphasize that the solution must not be confused with the product. The business model as a whole is the startup’s product, the solution only a component of it.

5.3.1. Inside of the Building: Identifying Target Solution

For each problem there are always multiple solutions. The number of potential solutions for this particular problem is reduced by laying the focus on a specific customer segment. Nonetheless, the number of potential solutions is still high. This paper makes the main

5

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distinction between ‘technological’ and ‘in person’ solutions. It was decided to go with a technological solution because of two factors. First, the rising trend of ‘quantified self for all’ in sports. According to Servant (2016), quantified self for all means an increased use of technologies in sports to improve performance by recording, monitoring and sharing personal data. It is successful because it is based on the core management belief that what cannot be measured can not be managed, helping non-professional athletes train almost as efficiently as professionals (ibid.). Moreover, it is known that Endurio’s target customer segment is open to the use of technology in its training and in general represents an age group that works with electronic devices on a daily basis (cf. Appx. A: Fig. 7: New Technology). Moreover, in the interviews it was indicated that personal contact in form of a coach was not necessarily needed to improve performance overall. However, a personalized solution seemed to be important. Therefore, the proposed solution is aimed at digitalizing and personalizing triathlon training.

Thus, Endurio’s solution hypothesis reads as follows: Endurio is a mobile application aimed at helping you to create a faster version of yourself. It provides you with personalized triathlon training schedules, helps you track performance and lets you share your accomplishments. Based on observations and assumptions about the target customer, tracking of performance and sharing of accomplishments have been added as solution features. In the eyes of the founder a combination of those three features presented a well-rounded product.

5.3.2. 3rd Loop: Testing the Solution Proposal and Smoke Test

Two experiments have been designed to test whether people like Harvey - fulltime manager and ambitious triathlete - have the need for a triathlon training schedule that is dynamically adapted to their life, are interested in the above proposed solution. Next to conducting personal interviews, a smoke test in form of a landing page (http://endurio.launchrock.com) has been created to present Endurio’s’ proposed solution and to test market interest. The landing page was designed with the help of launchrocket.com showing a picture of a triathlete, Endurio’s

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solution and a call to action in form of a ‘Get Started Today’ slogan and an email sign up field below (cf. Appx. D: Fig. 8: Design). The page was shown to interviewees before the start of the interview. The interview questions evolved around the understanding and the importance of the described solution and the rating of the importance of the solution on a six-stage rating system6. The minimum success criterion for the interview has been defined as three out of four interviewees indicating that this is a solution that is considered to be at least nice to have. Moreover, the interviewees were asked to tell other triathletes about the landing page to see if interest in the proposed solution could be gained via word-of-mouth. In addition, a public Facebook post on my private account has been set up to test interest in the product (cf. Appx. D: Fig. 9: Facebook Post). The minimum success criterion for the landing page has been defined as 100 visitors and a 4% conversion rate to potential customers within three days. McClure’s (2007) metrics for product marketing and product management has been used as a guidance for setting a realistic conversion rate goal.

The interviews have shown that the solution proposed via the landing page is not the perfect match for ambitious triathletes. While two of them indicated that they wanted to learn more about the solution, the other two stated that they did not care about it. The interviewees, who did not care about the proposed solution have been noticing that the picture used for the landing page shows a triathlete whose racing apparel sits too loose to be a ‘real’ triathlete. They pointed out that this must have been a photo shooting rather than a picture showing a racing triathlete. For them, this indicated that the creator of the page did not have the competence to tell both things apart what makes them believe that the product might be fit for amateurs but not for professional triathletes. Moreover, three interviewees stated that they already use other solutions to track their performance, which is why they would not need an ‘additional app’ doing that. All interviewees also indicated that they already shared their accomplishments with

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friends, family or other triathletes, which is why they did not regard it as an important feature. Two interviewees stated that instead of sharing of accomplishments, it would be nice to have something like an ‘inspiration’ mechanism, which enables triathletes to see other triathletes’ TTSs and their times within their region. However, all liked the idea of receiving personalized TTSs. That way, they were able to train whenever they liked and without being restricted by fixed training sessions. However, the interviewees indicated that they needed more information before being fully convinced of the solution, especially concerning the following details: (1) in what frequency are the TTSs updated? (weekly, monthly, quarterly), (2) Who is the originator of the TTSs? Is she or he trustworthy? (3) Is the app applicable for any triathlon distance?, (4) How is the initial starting fitness of the triathlete measured? (5) How does the app assure that the TTSs are adapted to progress in performance? (6) How is assured that the exercises of the TTSs are well understood and correctly executed especially with regards to preventing injuries?

Concluding, the minimum success criterion for the interviews was not met. However, all interviewees seemed to be interested in the idea of an app providing personalized triathlon training schedules.

The analytics of the landing page showed that within three days 63 people visited the page staying zero to ten seconds on average (cf. Appx. D: Fig. 10: Visitors; Fig. 11: World Map; Fig. 12: Average Visiting Time). From those who visited the page, six7 converted to potential customers by leaving their email address. Out of the six visitors who signed up, two have been identified as interview partners. From the interviews it is known that none of the interviewees sees this solution as nice to have, thus they were not counted as potential customers. The other four were unknown (cf. Appx. D: Fig. 14: Potential Customers). When they have been contacted via email requesting an interview to get a better understanding why they were interested in the product, none of them answered. The results of the landing page experiment

7 Originally eleven converted to potential customers. However, five of the eleven were identified as friends or were test runs, which is why they were not counted as potential customers.

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show that the minimum success criterion has not been met with regards to the number of people visiting the side. However, the minimum success criterion has been met with regards to the 4% conversion rate. Since the potential customers did not respond to the email request following their sign up, their interest in the product can not be fully confirmed.

Looking at both the results from the interviews and the smoke test, it was decided to slightly pivot the solution to reach a better problem-solution fit.

5.3.3. Inside of the Building: Modifying the Solution Hypothesis

The solution was adjusted based on the information received from the previous interviews especially with regards to the open question concerning the personalized TTSs. Moreover, Endurio’s unique value proposition (UVP) has been drafted to state why the company’s product is different to other products and why it is worth buying (Blank, 2006). This time, the solution was described in more detail to prevent misunderstandings. The proposed solution reads as follows:

Endurio – Introduction

Focused on the individual goal of the athlete, Endurio offers weekly training schedules developed by renowned triathlon coaches that are adapted to your day-to-day and your performance. We believe that even the most carefully assembled training schedule can fail you if it is not flexible enough. Endurio will embrace changes in your daily life by adapting your training schedule on a weekly basis. Whether you decide to beat your personal best, try out a new distance or simply have fun, Endurio will help you to thrive on race day regardless of your initial performance level.

Endurio Fundamentals - How does it work exactly?

To specifically adapt the training schedule to you, basic data is collected as you first register at Endurio. Such as (1) your goal – what distance do you want to participate in? What date have you set as your race day? If it’s too ambitious as it’s not matching with your fitness level,

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needs – how many hours are you able to train per week? Can you only train on specific days? Additionally, a performance diagnostic test is used to help us assess your current fitness level. The test can be undertaken with or without technical hardware, depending on how well you are equipped. Once we have collected the basic data and your general fitness level is determined, you are free to start your training. Small video clips will demonstrate you how to correctly execute certain exercises, especially focusing on swimming and running techniques. This will not only help you to improve technically but also to avoid injuries. For you to achieve the optimal training result, we aim to continuously adapt your personal training schedule to your performance. To assess your progress and your mental strength, the best way possible, Endurio not only uses data collected during your performance diagnostic test or your trainings but also asks you to rate your trainings session according to the perceived level of stress. This so-called “Intensity Feedback” uses RPE-Scales (Ratings of Perceived Exertion) to embrace – besides clearly determinable factors – an often disregarded element: the triathlete and his or her perception of the training. RPE-Scales constitute an essential part of performance diagnostics in serious sports. With the help of the Intensity Feedback, the triathlete’s perception flows directly into the generation of training sessions. Endurio will help you to create a faster and stronger version of yourself so you can thrive on race day.

5.3.4. 4th Loop: Testing the Modified Solution Hypothesis and Market Interest

To learn if this solution proposal can be validated three experiments were designed. Interviews in form of pitch have been conducted. Additionally, a Facebook Page and a website have been set up to test market interest in the modified solution (cf. Appx. E: Fig. 15: Facebook Page).

In a first stage of the interview, the modified solution was pitched to the interviewees. Moreover, the interviewees were asked to have a look at the created Facebook page as well as at the website before the start of the interview. Both were used to help the interviewees visualize the proposed solution in a more vivid way. In a second stage, questions evolving around the

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proposed solution were asked (resembling those of the previous loop). The minimum success criterion for the interview has been defined as three out of four interviewees indicating that this is a solution that is considered to be at least nice to have.

In fact, the minimum success criterion has been met. Two of the interviewees said that this is a must have solution, one indicated that it is nice to have and one indicated to want to know more about it. All of the interviewees stated that they liked the way the solution developed saying that it looked very professional, easy-to-use and like a real alternative to conventional training schedules. Naturally, some of the interviewees were still sceptical about the actual product and if it is able to deliver what it promises. Especially with regards to the training content, more detailed information was asked for (e.g. How do you come up with the training content? Who is the renowned triathlon coach that is talked about in the solution?). If the solution was able to create great training content and assure 100% flexibility, the app had the potential to develop into a must-have training device of every ambitious triathlete. However, all of the triathletes agreed that the final judgment is made on race day, not earlier. Concerning the willingness to pay for the solution all of them indicated that they were generally willing to pay for it. While two stated that they would be willing to pay a small amount for the solution as early as in the testing phase, two said that they were not be willing to pay something before the solution proved to be working better than their current TTS. All of the interviewees agreed to be part of Endurio’s test phase. Meaning that they are willing to use a prototype in their training. When asked if they were willing to promote the solution (in form of the website and/or Facebook page) to other triathletes, all agreed. One even offered to help finding other motivated first users.

The Facebook site8 contains basic information about Endurio, such as a short and a long description of the product, its mission, its email address, its website and when it is supposed to

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launch. Additionally, a ‘Learn More’ button is displayed, which redirects to Endurio’s website9. The first thing that is shown on the website is a call to action in form of the following slogan: ‘Get Ready for Your Triathlon’ (cf. Appx. E: Fig.16: Call to Action). Below there is red button that states ‘Today’ that directs the visitor to a ‘Coming Soon’ pop up for signing up via email (cf. Appx. E: Fig. 17: Sign Up). In the background a video in black and white is showing professional triathletes (men and women) in the middle of a race. Special focus has been laid on solely using videos or pictures that show ‘real’ triathletes to better appeal to target customer segment. When the visitor scrolls down, Endurio’s UVP is displayed in large letters right below the startup’s logo (cf. Appx. E: Fig. 18: UVP). A detailed list of the benefits of Endurio is depicted below the UVP (cf. Appx. E: Fig. 19: Benefits). Followed by a contact site that also refers to Endurio’s Facebook page (cf. Appx. E: Fig. 20: Contact Details). The minimum success criterion for the the website has been set to 100 visitors and a 4% conversion rate within three weeks beginning from the day of the interviews. The minimum success criterion for the Facebook page has been set to 100 likes within three weeks. The timeframe has been chosen to be much longer for this test since neither the website nor the Facebook page has been marketed in any way. It was to be seen if the solution could be spread via word-of-mouth only. Thus, it was accounted for more time.

The analytics of the website showed that within three weeks, 136 people visited the page staying four seconds on average (cf. Appx. E: Fig. 21: Analytics Website). However, only 18,4% of the visitors represented ‘new’ visitors. From those who visited the page, sixteen converted to potential customers by leaving their email address of which four were identified as the interview partner and six as friends or family. Leaving six unknown potential customers. The results of the website experiment show that the minimum success criterion has been met with regards to the number of people visiting the side and with the conversion rate. The

9 http://www.endurio.de/

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Facebook analytics showed that 69 people liked the page within three weeks. However, 90% of the people liking the page have been identified as friends, their conviction of the solution has thus to be seen critically. The minimum success criterion for the Facebook experimentation has not been met. Due to the small scope of the two experiments, the results of both tests should be verified by running another experiment where the solution is marketed through various channels. This way, statistically significant results can be achieved and market interest can be validated.

Concluding, all of the interviewees liked the proposed solution saying that it looked very professional, easy-to-use and like a real alternative to conventional training schedules. Moreover, the tests of market interest confirmed the results of the interviews. Even though a statistically more representative test would have to be conducted to verify the results, the proposed solution has been perceived as a good fit for the target customer segment. A customer/problem/solution fit has been found. Hence, the research question can be answered: The smallest solution with the most focused set of features that will drive a customer purchase is a mobile app that focused on the individual goal of the athlete offers weekly training schedules developed by renowned triathlon coaches that are adapted to the customers’ day-to-day and their performance.

6. Conclusion and Roadmap

“True visionaries are not the ones that stick to a vision no matter what, true visionaries are those that are able to hear the market and then go towards where the market is leading them”

-Brant Cooper

The vision on which this thesis has been built was to help people train better while creating a sustainable business according to LS principles. This paper set out to answer the research question aimed at identifying the smallest solution with the most focused set of features that will drive a customer purchase. After a general market interest in BMs in the area of triathlon and training could be confirmed, four loops of hypothesis testing needed to be performed. While

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the first two loops were concerned with finding a problem ‘ambitious triathletes’ are facing, the second two loops concentrated on finding a must-have solution to the identified problem. The problem that has been identified is the following: ‘ambitious triathletes’ need a TTS that dynamically adapts to their day-to-day and their training progress. After reaching the customer/problem fit, the following problem/solution fit to arrive at a MVP has been identified, which reads as follows:

The smallest solution with the most focused set of features that will drive a customer purchase is a mobile app that focused on the individual goal of the athlete offers weekly training schedules developed by renowned triathlon coaches that are adapted to the customers’ day-to-day and their performance. Thanks to the process of validated learning, valuable time and money could be saved while finding a solution that customers want.

Due to the page limitation of this research and based on the choices made in terms of concepts, this thesis exhibits the following limitations. This paper does not examine whether startups following LS concept are more successful than startups following other concepts. This is an interesting topic to be analysed further since research on ‘lean’ startups is generally limited (Kähig, 2011). Moreover, an analysis of the practical applicability of LS methods to real life cases could not be given either. The data collected during this research is mainly of qualitative nature, which is why the statistical relevance of this thesis is limited. In a next step, a prototype in form of the MVP should be built and tested in the market. Only when a product/market fit is reached, the startup should be scaled.

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Oral References

Kaiser, Lukas. Austrian Triathlete. Interviewed November until December 2016. Rondini, Matteo. Italian Triathlete. Interviewed November until December 2016. Proske, Manuela. German Triathlete. Interviewed November until December 2016. Paul, Frank. British Triathlete. Interviewed November until December 2016.

Referências

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