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Equity valuation : Galp

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Advisor: José Carlos Tudela Martins

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of requirements for the degree of MSC in Business Administration, at CATÓLICA-LISBON, May 29, 2011

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Abstract

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Table of Contents

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1 –

Introduction

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The objective of this master thesis is to analyze and understand some of the concepts of equity valuation. To do that, it was made an assessment in one of the company’s PSI-20 (the Portuguese stock exchange) in which, that will be compared with an independent report on the same company.

The company I chose was GALP, since it is one of the most important companies in the PSI-20, and I have used a report from Barclays Capital, as it is one of the most informative reports about the study we are conducting.

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This thesis is divided in five parts, in the first one is describe the purpose of this dissertation; in the second section, where was made the state of the art, the concepts and methods of evaluation regarding equity valuation; in the third part, where was develop a short overview regarding the company’s industry, as well as the company it self and below its shown some relevant data about the valuation of the company; in the four section, was where I have chosen a independent report of the investment entity to compare with my own valuation, and at the end I have made a short conclusion and show the limitations of this thesis.

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2 - Literature Review

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-“Less time and less assumptions and information.”

-“Simplicity and easy to understand.“

-“Accessibility through financial newspaper, magazines, and online platforms (normally daily).”

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Weakness of multiples:

-“Underlying assumption too simplistic” -“Multiple only use a picture where the company are in that moment”

-“Multiples don’t achieve the dynamics and the environmental of the business”

-“The lack of accuracy on the chosen inputs” -“The possibility of manipulation”

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Value Price of share

Value of the company in

the normal scenario 19 444 25 021 15 882 19,15! Value of the company in

the scenario 1 20 097 25 682 16 543 19,95! Value of the company in

the scenario 2 24 558 30 890 21 750 26,23! Value of the company in

the scenario 3 14 718 20 730 11 591 13,98!

(Value in millions except if say the unit,) P+#1?0O'+I,'?)*?#*)%$+,K'

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Galp BG Group BP Eni Repsol Total Industry

Average Market Capitalization (millions) 12,526! $85,695 $144,545 $107,624 $43,670 $151,014 - Number of Shares (millions) 813 - 3,168 1,811 1,220 2,247 -

EPS 0,50! - -$0,85 3,31! 1,64! 5,30! -

Book Value per Share 3,19! - $32,27 28,69! 17,64! 27,84! -

Return on Equity 16,24% 15,90% -2,59% 11,53% 9,61% 19,87% - Return on Assets 5,11% 8,46% -1,01% 4,57% 3,32% 8,33% - Revenue % -21,07 -18,73 24,01 17,94 -19,59 25,25 - Net Income % 201,54 -30,60 - 44,68 -45,05 25,15 - Growth rates: EPS % 200,00 - - 4,38 -42,15 2,46 - Capex as % of sales 5,57 - 6,09 12,88 8,87 7,71 -

Free cash flow /sales % - - -1,59 2,5 0,85 5,22 -

Free cash flow/net income - - 1,29 0,4 0,27 0,54 -

Debt/Equity - 0,47 0,32 0,4 0,84 0,32 - Price/earnings 28,9 20,7 -50,8 10,3 14,0 7,6 13,9 Price/Book 4,6 3,1 1,3 1,3 1,3 1,5 1,9 Price/sales 1,0 4,4 0,4 0,6 - 0,6 0,8 Price/Cash flow - 9,1 16,3 4,2 5,5 4,8 7,2 Dividend Yield % 1,1 1,0 2,0 3,9 3,1 4,4 3,4

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4 - Comparison with an financial report

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Comparison with Barclays Capital Report

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F

Dissertation's Total operating profit 968 936 167 459 630 770 824 958 1056 1151 Barclays' Total operating profit 686 620 695 284 481 713 1031 1140 1256 1466

Dissertation's EBITDA 1260 1213 449 830 1053 1129 1208 1347 1433 1534

Barclays' EBITDA 736 635 777 607 865 1054 1269 1365 1467 1636

Dissertation's CF form operations 957 895 443 711 814 908 981 1163 1266 1435

Barclays' CF form operations 655 1285 745 937 791 971 1168 1262 1362 1528

Dissertation's Investment in NWC -77 220 -186 409 152 280 280 280 280 280 Barclays' Investment in NWC -74 30 338 181 0 0 0 0 0 0 Dissertation's Capex 429 -430 -1535 -800 -1371 -1571 -1571 -1571 -1571 -1571 Barclays' Capex -352 -465 -1560 -730 -979 -1184 -1043 -1166 -1307 -1468 N3444' N5c44' N5444' Nc44' 4' c44' 5444' 6$8801%)%$+,u8'_)/0U' i)1?*)&8u'_)/0U'

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5 - Conclusion

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6 - Appendices

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Country Region Long-Term Rating Adj. Default Spread Total Risk Premium

Country Risk Premium

Angola Africa B1 400 11,00% 6,00%

Brazil Central and South America Baa3 200 8,00% 3,00%

Portugal Western Europe A1 85 6,28% 1,28%

Portugal (1) Western Europe Baa1 150 7,25% 2,25%

Spain Western Europe Aa1 25 5,38% 0,38%

Aswath Damodaran http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ctryprem.html

(1) since Portugal was review as Baa1 by moodys in (http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?lang=en&cy=global&docid=PR_216973), according with the previous web-site rates list, Portugal change from 6,28 to 7,25% in Total Risk Premium

German Bond rate (10y)

Rf = 3,38% Beta = 0.88 http://www.digitallook.com/cgi-bin/dlmedia/security.cgi?csi=200257&ac=&username=

Beta of Galp = 1,044 Source: (Bloomberg ,14h51, 5/4/2011)

CAPM Portugal Angola and Brazil Portugal and Spain

Re = Rf + B * E(Rm) = 10,95% 13,30% 9,97%

Historical Tax Shield Rate Forcast Tax shield rate

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tax 21,14% 28,50% 23,78% 15,43% 25,10% 27,98% 27,98% 25,10% 25,10% 25,10%

Var. of Tax 34,83% -16,56% -35,11% 62,67%

Orientador

Hypotesis: 28,50% 28,50% 26,50% 26,50% 26,50%

Average = 11,46% Assumption: 2 years of bad economic scenario 3 years of recover economic scenario Historical Tax rate of debt

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tax Debt 4,63% 5,10% 3,80% 3,55% 3,55% 3,55% 3,55% 3,55% 3,55%

Var of Tax 10,15% -25,49% -6,58% 0 0 0 0 0

Assumption: Since they want to reduce the debt capital structure, and their financial situation is stable, i assume that rate will maintain, once they will not add new debt

Historical Company structure 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 as % E/V 38,85% 41,74% 33,50% 31,79% 29,64% 30,53% 31,44% 32,38% 33,36% 34,36% var E/V 7,42% -19,73% -5,11% -6,77% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% as % D/V 61,15% 58,26% 66,50% 68,21% 70,36% 69,47% 68,56% 67,62% 66,64% 65,64% var D/V -4,72% 14,14% 2,58% 3,16% -1,26% -1,32% -1,38% -1,44% -1,50% Sum of control 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00% 100,00%

Assumption: They say that they are commited to have a trustable capital structure, in which i used a 3% of growth in Equity creation value per year,

Wacc 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

(Bra. and Ang.) E&P 5,81% 5,84% 5,93% 6,10% 6,21% 6,31%

(Port.) R&M 5,12% 5,12% 5,20% 5,34% 5,42% 5,51%

(Port. and Spain) G&P 4,83% 4,82% 4,89% 5,03% 5,10% 5,17%

Average 5,25% 5,26% 5,34% 5,49% 5,58% 5,66%

Assumption: The rate of discount use on the free cash flows is the WACC (“Weighted Average Cost of Capital”), taken into consideration the segment and also the country where is operating, http://relatorioecontas.galpenergia.com/Página-5-247.aspx

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