Noise traders, rational traders, and the rest: A new approach to efficient financial markets

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(59) HC G<CK H<5H =BJ9GHCF G9BH=A9BH IB 7CFF9@5H98 K=H< CH<9F :57HCFG D@5MG 5 G=;B=O75BH FC@9 =B 89H9FA=B=B; 5GG9H JC@5H=@=HM. ,<9M 5@GC OB8 H<5H CDH=A=GH=7 6I@@=G< 5B8 D9GG=A=GH=7 695F=G< G9BH=A9BH ;9B9F5H9G 5GMAA9HF=7 GD=@@CJ9F 9T97HG FCA 5 GIFJ9M C: =BGH=HIH=CB5@ =BJ9GHCFG G=A=@5F F9GI@HG 5F9 IB7CJ9F98 =B5@@M ,G=5D@=5G

(60)

(61) GHI8=9G 9EI=HM A5F?9HG :FCA 89J9@CD98 7CIBHF=9G 69HK99B

(62) 5B8

(63)

(64) OB8=B; 5 GHFCB; =AD57H C: =BJ9GHCF G9BH=A9BH 5B8 BC=G9 HF58=B; CB 6CH< F9HIFBG 5B8 JC@5H=@=HM 7CAACB 7F=H=7=GA C: 69<5J=CIF5@ 5GG9H DF=7=B; =G H<5H 9J9B =: 7C;B=H=J9 6=5G9G 5B8 BC=G9 9L=GH 5H H<9 =B8=J=8I5@ =BJ9GHCF @9J9@ H<9G9 75B 75B79@ 957< CH<9F 5B8 <5J9 BC =AD57H 5H H<9 5;;F9;5H9 A5F?9H @9J9@ =J9B H<5H ACGH 5DDFC57<9G HC AC89@@=B; BC=G9 F9@M CB 5 R6CHHCA IDR A=7FC:CIB898 5D DFC57< H<9M 5F9 JI@B9F56@9 HC H<=G 7F=H=EI9 5?9F 5B8 /IF;@9F

(65)

(66) <5J9 DFCJ=898 5 ?9M 7CBHF=6IH=CB 5G H<9M F9@M CB 5 RHCD 8CKBR A57FC 5DDFC57< HC 89H97H K5J9G C: G9BH=A9BH H<5H 9LD@5=B A5F?9H 69<5J=CIF 69MCB8 H<9 9T97H C: :IB85A9BH5@G. . 2+1-7-9) -%6)6. =J9B H<5H BC=G9 5B8 G9BH=A9BH 5F9 =B<9F9BH@M 69<5J=CIF5@ D<9BCA9B5 H<9F9 <5G 699B AI7< 9TCFH =B H<9 @=H9F5HIF9 HC F9@5H9 H<9A HC K9@@ ?BCKB 7C;B=H=J9 6=5G9G +<=@@9F

(67)

(68) 5B8 +HF5775

(69)

(70) DFCJ=89 9LH9BG=J9 @=GHG C: K9@@ 8C7IA9BH98 7C;B=H=J9 6=5G9G H<5H A5M <5J9 5B =AD57H CB A5F?9H 5;;F9;5H9G !9F9 K9 :C7IG CB 6=5G9G H<5H 5F9 ACF9 F9@9J5BH HC H<9 GI6>97H C: CIF KCF?. +<=@@9F

(71)

(72) :C7IG9G CB :998657? AC89@G =BJ9GHCFG C6G9FJ9 H<9 F=G=B; DF=79 CB 5B 5GG9H 5B8 <9F8 HC DIF7<5G9 H<5H 5GG9H @958=B; HC :IFH<9F DF=79 =B7F95G9G "B H<9 9B8 H<9G9 =BJ9GHCFG 5F9 6IM=B; 5H H<9 KCFGH DCGG=6@9 DF=79 ,<=G A97<5B=GA =G B5HIF5@@M 5H H<9 CF=;=B C: 6I66@9G 5B8 7F5G<9G 5G H<9 DF=79 F957<9G J9FM <=;< @9J9@G 5B8 89A5B8 OB5@@M 897F95G9G H<9 :998657? 7<5BB9@ :FCA DF=79G HC <=;<9F DF=79G =G 6FC?9B H<9 6=5G =G RIB8CB9 =B 5 G9BG9 5B8 =BJ9GHCFG 5F9 H9ADH98 HC G9@@ :5GH 5B8 :IF=CIG 69:CF9 H<9 DF=79 :5@@G :IFH<9F H<IG 7CBHF=6IH=B; HC =HG 7C@@5DG9 5B8 5 A5F?9H 7F5G< 998657? 9T97HG G99A =B<9F9BH HC 7C;B=H=J9 DGM7<C@C;M 5B8 9J=89B79 H<5H R<IA5B >I8;A9BHG C: H<9 DFC656=@=HM C: :IHIF9 9J9BHG G<CK GMGH9A5H=7 6=5G9GR +9J9F5@ :57HCFG 577CIBH :CF GMGH9A5H=7 6=5G9G B9KG H<9 DCDI@5F DF9GG H<9 CD=B=CBG H<9F9=B 7CBH5=B98 5B8 <CK H<9M 5F9 A98=5H98 6M GD97=5@=GHG 5B8 CD=B=CB A5?9FG HC OB5@@M =AD57H H<9 69@=9:G C: =B8=J=8I5@ =BJ9GHCFG BM 9T97H H<5H =G ;9B9F5H98 5B8 =G BCH =B 5BM H5B;=6@9 K5M 7CBB97H98 HC H<9 :IB85A9BH5@ :57HCFG C: H<9 5GG9H 5H GH5?9 75B 69 G5=8 HC :5@@ IB89F H<9 . +<=@@9F

(73)

(74) .

(75).

(76) 6F5B7< C: =BJ9GHCF G9BH=A9BH CF BC=G9 ,<9F9 =G AI7< 5B978CH5@ 9J=89B79 C: :998657? 9T97HG :FCA <=GHCF=75@ C6G9FJ5H=CBG :FCA H<9 IH7< ,I@=DA5B=5 CB H<9 H< 79BHIFM HC H<9 GHC7? A5F?9H 6I66@9 C:

(77)

(78)

(79)

(80) . (H<9F K9@@ 8C7IA9BH98 7C;B=H=J9 6=5G9G H<5H 75B >IGH=:M H<9 9A9F;9B79 C: BC=GM 9LD97H5H=CBG =G DIH :CFK5F8 =B %=J=C

(81)

(82) ACB; H<9G9 5F9 CJ9F =B:9F9B79 :FCA GA5@@ G5AD@9G H<9 69@=9: H<5H DCG=H=J9 CF B9;5H=J9 F9HIFBG 5F9 ACF9 D9FG=GH9BH H<5H =B :57H H<9M 5F9 5B7<CF=B; H<9 69@=9: H<5H 7IFF9BH C6G9FJ98 DF=79G 5F9 H<9 RBCFA5@R CF R9EI=@=6F=IAR DF=79G C: 5B 5GG9H @=A=H98 5HH9BH=CB K<9B 5;9BHG 5F9 =B75D56@9 C: DFC79GG=B; 5B8 R8=;9GH=B;R 5@@ =B:CFA5H=CB F979=J98 5B8 7F98I@=HM 5G 5;9BHG :5=@ HC O@H9F H<9 =B:CFA5H=CB F979=J98 5B8 =B7CFDCF5H9 6=5G98 5B8 BC=GM 69@=9:G C: CH<9FG 5G H<9=F CKB . 8=T9F9BH G9H C: 7C;B=H=J9 6=5G9G @CCG9@M F9@5H98 HC CJ9F =B:9F9B79 7CBG=GHG C: CJ9F7CBO89B79 5B8 H<9 =@@IG=CB C: 7CBHFC@ ,<9G9 69@CB; HC K<5H +HF5775

(83)

(84) 89G7F=69G 5G !(*.%*)' CF 0%-!,' %-!- (J9F7CBO89B79 =G K9@@ 8C7IA9BH98 =B DFC:9GG=CB5@ 5B8 IB9LD9F=9B798 =BJ9GHCFG 5@=?9 :CF =BGH5B79 =B 1=B89@ 9H 5@

(85)

(86) K<C IG9 EI9GH=CBB5=F9 H97<B=EI9G ,<=G A5M :998 CJ9F7CBO89B79 5B8 H<9 =@@IG=CB C: 7CBHFC@ H<FCI;< K<5H =G ?BCKB 5G H<9 *)5,(.*,3 %- *56=B 5B8 +7<F5; . ,<=G :998657? 9T97H =B 9ACH=CBG @958G 5;9BHG 5B8 =BJ9GHCFG HC 69@=9J9 H<5H H<9M 5F9 ACF9 75D56@9 H<5B K<5H H<9M F95@@M 5F9 DCH9BH=5@@M @958=B; =B8=J=8I5@G HC :CF;9H H<5H H<9M 5F9 5HCAG =B H<9 A5F?9H

(87) "H =G =BH9F9GH=B; HC BCH9 H<5H +<=@@9FQG DCDI@5F 6CC? ,,.%*)' 2/!,)! K5G DI6@=G<98 =B H<9 69;=BB=B; C: &5F7<

(88)

(89)

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(91) H< C: &5F7< 5B8 H<9 7F5G< GCCB :C@@CK98 5H H<9 9B8 C: H<9 ACBH<. F98I@=HM 75B 69 F958=@M F9@5H98 HC H<9 5:CF9A9BH=CB98 FC@9 C: GC7=5@ =BPI9B79. G G<CKB =B H<9 :C@@CK=B; G97H=CB BC=G9 HF589FG K<C 5F9 GIS7=9BH@M 6I@@=G< 5B8 <5J9 GIS7=9BH@M BC=GM 9LD97H5H=CBG GC 5G HC 58CDH 9L79GG=J9@M @CB; DCG=H=CBG =B <=;< F=G? A5F?9HG 75B =B8998 95FB <=;<9F F9HIFBG H<5B H<9=F F5H=CB5@ 7CIBH9FD5FHG. .

(92). !,) )1',0%5. 2()/. ,<9 69B7<A5F? AC89@ =G =BGD=F98 6M H<9 BC=G9 HF589F 5GG9H DF=7=B; AC89@ 89J9@CD98 =B 9%CB; 9H 5@

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

(94) =AD@M=B; H<5H =HG DF=79 K=@@ 69 5@@CK98 HC PI7HI5H9 0CIB; 5;9BHG 5H D9F=C8 % DIF7<5G9 =H 5H ! 5B8 G9@@ =H K<9B C@8 5H ! =J9B H<5H H<=G F=G?M 5GG9H 9L=GHG =B OB=H9 EI5BH=HM H<9 9EI=@=6F=IA DF=79 =G 89H9FA=B98 6M 5;;F9;5H9 89A5B8 6M MCIB; 5;9BHG ,<9 F=G?M 5GG9H D5MG 5 BCB GHC7<5GH=7 8=J=89B8 9EI5@ HC H<9 F=G? :F99 F5H9 # ,<=G 5GGIADH=CB A5M 69 F9@5L98 5B8 G9FJ9G H<9 DIFDCG9 C: BCFA5@=G=B; H<9 9EI=@=6F=IA DF=79 C: H<9 F=G?M 5GG9H K=H< F9GD97H HC H<5H C: H<9 F=G?@9GG 6CB8. 57< ;9B9F5H=CB =G DCDI@5H98 6M 5 7CBH=BIIA C: 5;9BHG =B89L98 6M

(95) K<C A5M 7CA9 =B HKC 8=T9F9BH HMD9G *5H=CB5@ HF589FG 69<5J9 F5H=CB5@@M =B H<9 G9BG9 C: A5L=A=G=B; 9LD97H98 IH=@=HM GI6>97H HC F5H=CB5@ 9LD97H5H=CBG F9;5F8=B; H<9 :IHIF9 DF=79 C: H<9 F=G?M 5GG9H (B H<9 CH<9F <5B8 BC=G9 HF589FG 69=B; =89BH=75@ HC F5H=CB5@ HF589FG =B 9J9FM CH<9F 5GD97H <5J9 BC=GM 9LD97H5H=CBG F9;5F8=B; H<9 F=G?M 5GG9HQG :IHIF9 DF=79 "B D5FH=7I@5F H<9M 5F9 GI6>97H HC GCA9 7C;B=H=J9 6=5G C: H<9 7@5GG C: H<CG9 8=G7IGG98 69:CF9 GC H<5H H<9M A=GD9F79=J9 H<9 9LD97H98 DF=79 =B H<9 :C@@CK=B; D9F=C8 6M 5 H9FA K<=7< A5M H5?9 DCG=H=J9 CF B9;5H=J9 J5@I9G "B 75G9 H<=G H9FA =G DCG=H=J9 H<9M 69@=9J9 H<9 F5H=CB5@ CB9 D9F=C8 5<958 9LD97H5H=CB :CF H<9 :IHIF9 DF=79 HC 69 5B IB89F9GH=A5H9 C: =HG HFI9 :IHIF9 F95@=G5H=CB ,<=G 5G K9 K=@@ G99 6CCGHG H<9=F 89A5B8 :CF H<9 5GG9H <9B79 H<9M 5F9 G5=8 HC 69 /''%-$ ": H<9 H9FA =G B9;5H=J9

(96) H<9 F9J9FG9 9T97H C77IFG 5B8 H<9M 5F9 G5=8 HC 9B;5;9 .

(97) =B !,%-$ 69<5J=CIF /<9B H<9 9LD97H5H=CB C: H<9 :IHIF9 DF=79 697CA9G F5H=CB5@ <9B79 H<9=F 69<5J=CIF 7C=B7=89G K=H< H<5H C: 5B 9@9A9BH C: ;FCID . '5HIF5@@M ,<9 7CBH=BIIA C: 5;9BHG <5G A95GIF9 . FCID <5G A95GIF9 K<=@9 ;FCID <5G A95GIF9 :CF

(98) "B H<9 7CBH9LH C: H<=G AC89@ H<9G9 A95GIF9G 75B 69 H5?9B 5G H<9 A5F?9H DFCDCFH=CB CF A5F?9H G<5F9 :CF 957< HMD9 C: 5;9BHG @@ HF589FG C: 5 ;=J9B HMD9 5F9 5GGIA98 HC 69 D9F:97H@M =89BH=75@ =B H9FAG C: DF9:9F9B79G 9B8CKA9BHG 5B8 CDH=A5@ 69<5J=CIF ,<=G 5@@CKG IG HC F9GHF=7H H<9 5B5@MG=G HC 5 @=A=H98 G9H C: DCFH:C@=C 5@@C75H=CB DFC6@9AG CB9 :CF 957< HMD9 C: 5;9BH H<5H DCDI@5H9G H<9 A5F?9H. ,<9 ?9M 8MB5A=7G C: H<9 AC89@ 75B 69 GIAA5F=G98 5G :C@@CKG. 0CIB; 5;9BHG 5F9 6CFB 9B8CK98 K=H< 5B 9LC;9BCIG =B7CA9 ,<9M 897=89 CB <CK HC 5@@C75H9 H<9=F K95@H< 69HK99B H<9 F=G?M 5B8 H<9 F=G? :F99 5GG9HG ,<9 897=G=CB =G H5?9B 65G98 CB A5L=A=G5H=CB C: 9LD97H98 IH=@=HM K<9B C@8. -H=@=HM 89D9B8G BCH CB@M CB 9LD97H98 K95@H< 6IH 5@GC CB H<9 J5F=5B79 F=G? C: K95@H< ,<9 GC@IH=CB HC H<9 DCFH:C@=C 5@@C75H=CB DFC6@9A M=9@8G H<9 89A5B8 :CF H<9 F=G?M 5GG9H :CF 957< D@5M9F HMD9 ,<9 A5F?9H 7@95F=B; 7CB8=H=CB 89H9FA=B9G H<9 9EI=@=6F=IA DF=79 957< D9F=C8 H<9F9:CF9 F95@=G=B; F9HIFBG. . 5)*)5)1')6 ;3)'7%7-216 %1( )0%1(. )F9:9F9B79G 5F9 7CAACB 57FCGG HMD9G 5B8 65G98 CB * IH=@=HM ' K<9F9 GH5B8G :CF H<9 7CBGH5BH 7C9S7=9BH C: 56GC@IH9 F=G? 5J9FG=CB 5B8 ' 89BCH9G K95@H< *5H=CB5@ 5;9BHG 69@=9J9 H<9 !2).! CB9 D9F=C8 5<958 8=GHF=6IH=CB C: H<9 DF=79 C: H<9 F=G?M 5GG9H HC 69 BCFA5@ ! ! K<9F9 ! GH5B8G :CF H<9 F5H=CB5@ 9LD97H5H=CB C: H<9 :IHIF9 DF=79 7CB8=H=CB5@ CB =B:CFA5H=CB 5J5=@56@9 5H % =G H<9 CB9 GH9D 5<958 7CB8=H=CB5@ J5F=5B79 C: H<9 . ,<9G9 DFCDCFH=CBG 75B :CF 9L5AD@9 F9P97H H<9 G<5F9 C: 9B8CKA9BHG CF K95@H< C: 957< C: H<9 ;FCIDG. .

(99) DF=79 'C=G9 HF589FG A=GD9F79=J9 H<9 DF=79 C: H<9 F=G?M 5GG9H =B H<9 :C@@CK=B; D9F=C8 6M 5 F5B8CA = = 8 BCFA5@ J5F=56@9 &CF9 GD97=O75@@M ! ! K<9F9. . 'CH=79 H<5H 9J9B H<CI;< 8=T9F9BH A=GD9F79DH=CBG C: H<9 :IHIF9 DF=79 5F=G9 57FCGG ;9B 9F5H=CBG H<9 G5A9 =G BCH HFI9 K=H<=B ;9B9F5H=CBG G F9A5F?98 =B 9%CB; 9H 5@.

(100) =H =G 7FI7=5@ HC 5GGIA9 H<5H H<=G A=GD9F79DH=CB 69 A5F?9H K=89 K=H<=B H<9 G9H C: BC=G9 HF589FG B5HIF5@@M ": BC=G9 K9F9 =8=CGMB7F5H=7 =H 7CI@8 69 5F;I98 H<5H F5H=CB5@ 5F6=HF5;9IFG KCI@8 =AA98=5H9@M 9@=A=B5H9 5BM DF9GGIF9G H<5H 7CI@8 DIG< H<9 DF=79 CT =HG 9S7=9BH 9EI=@=6F=IA @9J9@ "H 75B 5@GC 69 5F;I98 H<5H 8=T9F9BH IB7CF F9@5H98 A=GD9F79DH=CBG CJ9F H<9 :IHIF9 DF=79 GMAA9HF=75@@M 75B79@ 5H H<9 5;;F9;5H9 @9J9@ :CFA5@ 5F;IA9BH 65G98 CB H<=G @5HH9F 5F;IA9BH =G DF9G9BH98 :IFH<9F 5<958. =J9B BCFA5@@M 8=GHF=6IH98 9LD97H5H=CBG * 9LD97H98 IH=@=HM 75B 69 KF=HH9B =B A95B J5F=5B79 :CFA ' K<9F9 ' 89BCH9G H<9 7CB8=H=CB5@ 9LD97H98 J5@I9 C: :IHIF9 K95@H< 5H % 5B8 =G H<9 CB9 D9F=C8 5<958 7CB8=H=CB5@ J5F=5B79. 6M. ,<9 6I8;9H 7CBGHF5=BH :CF 5 MCIB; 5;9BH C: HMD9.

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

(124) . ,<9 CB@M 8=T9F9B79 =G <=;<@=;<H98 6M H<9 DF9G9B79 C: ! =BGH958 C: G=AD@M ! "B D5FH=7I@5F 8I9 HC H<9 :57H H<5H F<=NCA5H=7 BC=G9 HF589FG 69@=9J9 H<5H 5 DFCDCFH=CB " C: 5;9BHG 69<5J9G 5G H<9M 8C H<9M =AD@=7=H@M 7CBG=89F 5 F9@5H=CBG<=DG 69HK99B H<9=F 69<5J=CIF 5B8 A5F?9H D9F:CFA5B79 J9B H<CI;< H<=G A5F?9H DCK9F 8C9G BCH 9L=GH 5H H<9 =B8=J=8I5@ @9J9@ 8I9 HC 5HCA=7=HM C: 5;9BHG H<9 GC@9 9L=GH9B79 C: =HG D9F79DH=CB 8C9G =BPI9B79 9EI=@=6F=IA F9GI@HG 5B8 5@@C75H=CBG. .

(125) ,<9 B979GG5FM 5B8 GIS7=9BH OFGH CF89F 7CB8=H=CB BCK M=9@8G H<9 :C@@CK=B; 89A5B8 :IB7H=CB # ! # ! .

(126) #.

(127). K<9F9 H<9 BCJ9@HM =G H<9 DF9G9B79 C: H<9 H9FA ! M 7CBG=89F=B; H<5H H<9M GCA9<CK =BPI9B79 H<9 9EI=@=6F=IA DF=79 F<=NCA5H=7 BC=G9 5;9BHG H5?9 =BHC 577CIBH H<=G =BPI9B79 =B 7<CCG=B; H<9=F CDH=A5@ A5F?9H DCG=H=CB "B D5FH=7I@5F 6M 5GGIA=B; H<5H 5 DFCDCFH=CB " C: 5;9BHG 8C9G H<9 G5A9 5G H<9M 8C H<9M D9F79=J9 H<9 A5F?9H 7@95F=B; 7CB8=H=CB 5G 69=B; ;=J9B 6M " " ! "B H<9 56G9B79 C: =B8=J=8I5@ F5B8CAB9GG 89A5B8G 75B G=AD@M 69 H5?9B :FCA H<9 %969G;I9 =BH9;F5@G 5B8 F9D@5798 6M H<9 D9F79=J98 A95GIF9 C: 957< HMD9 C: 5;9BHG. DFCDCFH=CB " C: 5;9BHG BCH =G D9F79=J98 HC 8C DF97=G9@M H<9 G5A9 5G H<9M 8C <9B79 =G F9DF9G9BH98 6M CKB 89A5B8 ,<9 =B8=J=8I5@ F<=NCA5H=7 BC=G9 HF589F 69@=9J9G H<5H 5@@ HF589FG K<C 69<5J9 F<=NCA5H=75@@M 69@CB; HC H<9 DFCDCFH=CB " . ,<9 F9A5=B=B; " 9@9A9BHG C: H<9 DCDI@5H=CB 5F9 9LD97H98 HC 69 F5H=CB5@ HF589FG. !CK9J9F F<=NCA5H=7 BC=G9 HF589FG 5F9 BCH 9L57H@M GIF9 C: K<9H<9F H<9 CH<9F D@5M9FG K=@@ 69<5J9 GHF=7H@M =B 5 F5H=CB5@ A5BB9F <9B79 H<9 9LD97H98 J5@I9 =G H5?9B CJ9F H<CG9 D@5M9FGQ 57H=CBG 'CH9 H<5H H<9 AC89@ =G FC6IGH HC H<9 DCGG=6=@=HM C: H<9 CH<9F G=89 C: H<9 A5F?9H 69=B; 7CADCG98 C: BC=G9 HF589FG CF 9J9B 5 @=B95F 7CA6=B5H=CB C: BC=G9 5B8 F5H=CB5@ HF589FG ,<9 K5M F5H=CB5@ 5B8 BC=G9 HF589FG F957H HC 7<5B;9G =B DF=79 =G H<9 G5A9 5G CB9 75B G99 :FCA H<9 89A5B8 :IB7H=CBG =B H<9 69B7<A5F? 75G9 5B8 H<5H =G K<5H =G F9@9J5BH :CF H<=G 8=G7IGG=CB ,<9 F<=NCA5H=7 BC=G9 HF589F =G BCH 8=F97H@M =BH9F9GH98 =B H<=G 9EI=@=6F=IA 7CB8=H=CB +!, -! 6IH CB K<5H IB89F@M=B; F9@5H=CBG<=D =H ;9B9F5H9G 69HK99B <=G CF <9F CKB 89A5B8 5B8 H<9 9EI=@=6F=IA DF=79. ,C G99 H<=G 89OB9 H<9 <CAC;9B9CIG :IB7H=CB " " ! 5B8 =AD@=7=H@M 8=T9F9BH=5H9 5GGIA=B; H<5H 89F=J5H=J9G 75B 69 H5?9B K=H<=B H<9 9L D97H98 J5@I9 !. .

(128) " . "

(129)

(130) . "H =G 5GGIA98 H<5H H<9F9 =G CB@M CB9 GI7< =B H<9 97CBCAM 5B 5GGIADH=CB K<=7< K=@@ 69 F9@5L98 @5H9F CB 6M 7CBG=89F=B; H<5H H<=G D5F5A9H9F A5M 69 =8=CGMB7F5H=7. .

(131) /9 BCK 5GGIA9 H<5H F<=NCA5H=7 BC=G9 HF589FG 5F9 5K5F9 C: H<9 :IB7H=CB5@ :CFA C: CH<9F D@5M9FGQ 89A5B8G (B9 75B ACH=J5H9 H<=G 5GGIADH=CB 6M H<=B?=B; H<5H F<=NCA5H=7 BC=G9 HF589FG K9F9 =B=H=5@@M F5H=CB5@ CF 9J9B BC=G9 HF589FG ,<9M 5F9 5K5F9 H<5H CH<9F D@5M9FG K<C 8C BCH 69<5J9 F<=NCA5H=75@@M H5?9 CH<9FGQ 57H=CBG 5G ;=J9B *<=NCA5H=7 BC=G9 HF589FG 5F9 F9;I@5F =BJ9GHCFG K<C 69@=9J9 H<9M ?BCK 69GH H<9 =BB9F KCF?=B;G C: H<9 A5F?9H GHFI7HIF9 ,<IG =H =G 5G =: F<=NCA5H=7 BC=G9 HF589FG K9F9 9J9BHI5@@M 9B@=;<H9B98 6M H<9 69@=9: H<5H CH<9F D@5M9FG 7CI@8 69 8C=B; 9L57H@M H<9 G5A9 5G H<9M 8C ,<=G DFCJ=89G H<9 F5H=CB5@9 :CF F<=NCA5H=7 BC=G9 5;9BHGQ ?BCK@98;9 C: GHFI7HIF9 5B8 GD97=O75H=CB C: CH<9F D@5M9FGQ 89A5B8G 9GD97=5@@M K<9B CB9 7CBG=89FG H<5H H<9 C6>97H=J9 :IB7H=CB A5L=A=G98 6M 5 F<=NCA5H=7 BC=G9 5;9BH =G =89BH=75@ HC H<5H C: 5 BC=G9 HF589F G5J9 :CF H<9 5GGIADH=CB H<5H ! H<5H 89A5B8 75B =BPI9B79 H<9 9EI=@=6F=IA DF=79 FCA H<=G 5GGIADH=CB 5B8 :FCA 9EI5H=CB K9 ;9H H<5H. # ! @@ H<9G9 J5F=56@9G 5B8 D5F5A9H9FG 5F9 ?BCKB 5H H=A9 % 5@@CK=B; IG HC F9ACJ9 H<9 7CB8=H=CB5@ 9LD97H5H=CB CD9F5HCF :FCA 9LDF9GG=CB ! " " .

(132). 'CH9 H<5H H<=G 5DDFC57< =G FC6IGH HC A95GIF9A9BH 9FFCFG C: CH<9F HMD9GQ G9BG=H=J=HM HC 89A5B8 5G @CB; 5G H<9 9FFCF <5G N9FC 9LD97H98 J5@I9 7CB8=H=CB5@ 5H %. )@I;;=B; H<=G B9K@M 75@7I@5H98 89F=J5H=J9 =B H<9 9LDF9GG=CB :CF F<=NCA5H=7 BC=G9 HF589FGQ 89A5B8 5@@CKG IG HC 89H9FA=B9 H<9 OB5@ 9LDF9GG=CB # ! # ! # .

(133).

(134) # ! # ! " . . . "H =G 7@95F H<5H H<9 89A5B8 C: F<=NCA5H=7 BC=G9 5;9BHG 9EI5@ H<9 89A5B8 C: BC=G9 HF589FG =B H<9 69B7<A5F? AC89@ K9=;<H98 6M " ,<=G B9K H9FA G75@9G 8CKB 89A5B8 6M H<9 DFCDCFH=CB C: 5;9BHG H<5H 5F9 69@=9J98 HC 57H =B H<9 G5A9 K5M ,<=G 5@F958M <=;<@=;<HG K<5H =G 6CIB8 HC 69 CB9 C: H<9 A5=B FC@9G C: H<9 H9FA " @=A=H=B; H<9 F=98A5B 9T97H ": HF589FG 69@=9J9 5 @5F;9 DFCDCFH=CB C: H<9 A5F?9H HC 69<5J9 5G H<9M 8C H<9M 5F9 BCH @=?9@M HC 9LDCG9 H<9AG9@J9G HCC AI7< HC H<9 F=G?M 5GG9H !0!) =: H<9 .

(135) BC=G9 H9FA =G <=;< *<=NCA5H=7 BC=G9 5;9BHG =B H<=G 75G9 69@=9J9 H<5H 5 G=;B=O75BH G<5F9 " C: H<9 A5F?9H 5@GC 9LD97HG <=;< :IHIF9 DF=79G H<IG <5J=B; H<9 =B79BH=J9G HC 6IM 5B8 DF9GGIF=B; H<9 DF=79 8CKBK5F8G H<9F9:CF9 89GHFCM=B; 5BM DF=79 8=T9F9B79 F9HIFBG H<5H A5M 69 9LHF57H98 :FCA H<9 F=G?M 5GG9H /9 5F9 H<9F9:CF9 =BHFC8I7=B; =B8=J=8I5@ 5K5F9B9GG C: H<9 G97CB8 CF89F 9T97HG C: H<9 =AD57H C: K=89GDF958 5;;F9;5H9 BC=G9 5B8 F98I7=B; H<9 BC=G9 HF589F AC89@QG JI@B9F56=@=HM HC H<9 CF=;=B5@ 5F;IA9BH DIH :CFK5F8 =B F=98A5B B C6G9FJ5H=CB H<5H K=@@ C:H9B 69 F9D95H98 6IH H<5H =G D5FH=7I@5F@M GHF=?=B; =B 9LDF9GG=CB =G H<9 :57H H<5H 5G " H<9 F<=NCA5H=7 BC=G9 89A5B8 9LDF9GG=CB 7CBJ9F;9G HC H<9 CDH=A5@ 57H=CB H5?9B 6M DIF9 BC=G9 HF589FG. . 48-/-&5-80. G =B H<9 69B7<A5F? AC89@ 5;;F9;5H9 89A5B8 75B 69 KF=HH9B 5G H<9 K9=;<H98 5J 9F5;9 C: F9DF9G9BH5H=J9 5;9BHGQ 89A5B8 9LDF9GG=CBG 8I9 HC H<9 56G9B79 C: =B8=J=8I5@ F5B8CAB9GG "B H<=G 75G9 ,<9 A5F?9H 7@95F=B; 7CB8=H=CB F9A5=BG )@I;;=B; H<9 9LDF9GG=CBG :CF 957< HMD9QG 89A5B8 K9 ;9H.

(136).

(137) # ! # ! # ! # ! " B8 GC@J=B; :CF H<9 9EI=@=6F=IA DF=79 =B F97IFG=J9 :CFA

(138). " ! # ! . #. ". ". . 'CH9 H<5H :CF " H<=G 9EI5H=CB F9J9FHG HC 9LDF9GG=CB BCH<9F 9EI=@=6F=IA 7CB7@IG=CB H<5H =G 5@F958M <=BH98 5H 6M H<=G B9K 9LDF9GG=CB =G H<9 :57H H<5H 5G " H<9 =AD57H C: BC=G9 8=G5DD95FG =B H<9 A5=B A5F?9H 5;;F9;5H9G DF=79 5B8 J5F=5B79. BCH<9F =BH9F9GH=B; :57H =G H<5H K<9F95G H<9 CF=;=B5@ DF=7=B; 7CB8=H=CB 5G =B 9%CB; 9H 5@

(139) 5 K5G @=B95F =B 6CH< BC=G9 5B8 H<9 DFCDCFH=CB C: BC=G9 HF589FG H<9 B9K 7CB8=H=CB =G BCB@=B95F =B 6CH< 5B8 " ,<=G =G 8I9 HC H<9 5:CF9A9BH=CB98 :57H H<5H " 5@@CKG IG HC =BHFC8I79 G97CB8 CF89F 9T97HG C: BC=G9 =B =B8=J=8I5@ CDH=A=G5H=CB K<=7< 5F9 H<9B D5GG98 CB HC H<9 A5F?9H 5;;F9;5H9G. .

(140) . 48-/-&5-80 <1%0-'6. GGIA=B; 5K5M 6I66@9G 9LDF9GG=CB 75B 69 GC@J98 F97IFG=J9@M :CF H<9 GH958M GH5H9 DF=79 K=H< 5 7CBGH5BH J5F=5B79. " ! . ". # # # " (B79 5;5=B H<9 CB@M H=A9 J5FM=B; H9FA =B H<9 9LDF9GG=CB =G GC H<5H H<9 9EI=@=6F=IA J5F=5B79 75B 69 9LDF9GG98 5G . &# ! . " . " #. /9 75B BCK KF=H9 H<9 OB5@ 9LDF9GG=CB :CF H<9 9EI=@=6F=IA DF=79 =B H<9 GH958M GH5H9 " ! . ". . # #. . " . # " #. . 'CH9 CB79 5;5=B H<5H H<9 9LDF9GG=CB F98I79G HC 9EI5H=CB :CF " ,<9 BC=G9 H9FA CD9F5H9G =B 5 K5M G=A=@5F HC H<9 69B7<A5F? DF=7=B; 9EI5H=CB 6IH H<9 =BH9F57H=CB K=H< " AIGH BCK 69 H5?9B =BHC 577CIBH G " =B7F95G9G H<9 =AD57H C: BC=G9 =G ;F95H@M F98I798 "B D5FH=7I@5F 5G " 5DDFC57<9G H<9 9T97HG C: H<9 A95B 8=GHCFH=CB 75IG98 6M H<9 DF9G9B79 C: BC=G9 HF589FG =B H<9 A5F?9H 5B8 C: H<9 DF=79 JC@5H=@=HM H<5H =G =B8I798 6M 89J=5H=CBG C: :FCA =HG A95B H9B8 HC 8=G5DD95F G " =B7F95G9G BC=G9 =G 8F=J9B 5K5M :FCA H<9 A5F?9H =B89D9B89BH@M C: H<9 J5@I9 C: H<=G 9T97H =G B5HIF5@@M F9P97H98 =B H<9 GH958M GH5H9 J5F=5B79 H<5H 5@GC 5DDFC57<9G N9FC 5G " . ,<9 @9J9@ C: A5F?9H K=89 F<=NCA5H=7 69@=9:G AIH9G BC=G9 5B8 H<9 JC@5H=@=HM =H ;9B9F5H98 9B8C;9BCIG@M. ,<=G =G 8I9 HC H<9 G97CB8 CF89F 9T97H C: BC=G9 K<=7< =G =BHFC8I798 6M CIF 69<5J=CIF5@ 5GGIADH=CB 5G BC=G9 HF589FG H5?9 =BHC 577CIBH H<9 5;;F9;5H9 =AD57H C: H<9=F A=GD9F79DH=CBG 5B8 57H=CBG H<9M H9B8 HC 69 ACF9 75F9:I@ =B H<9=F HF589G 5B8 H<IG 5JC=8 H<9 F=98A5B 9T97H ,<=G AC89F5H=CB C: H<9=F DCG=H=CBG G<IHG H<9 HF5BGA=GG=CB 7<5BB9@ :FCA =B8=J=8I5@ BC=GM 9LD97H5H=CBG HC A5F?9H DF=79G ,<=G <=;<@=;<HG CB9 C: H<9 A5=B FC@9G C: H<9 =BHFC8I7H=CB C: H<9 5GGIADH=CB C: F<=NCA5H=7 69@=9:G =B H<9 AC89@ K=H<CIH 5GGIA=B; 5K5M H<9 DF9G9B79 C: A5F?9H K=89 BC=G9 5G =B 9%CB; 9H 5@

(141) 5 =H =G DCGG=6@9 HC C6H5=B 5B 9S7=9BH DF=79 6 ' &! ,<IG CIF 5GGIADH=CB C: F<=NCA5H=7 69@=9:G DFCJ=89G 5 69B7<A5F? K<9F9 6CH< &! 5B8 BC=G9 HF589FG 5F9 =BH9;F5H98 =BHC 5 6FC589F 5GG9H DF=7=B; AC89@ "H =G KCFH< BCH=B; . G =B H<9 69B7<A5F? AC89@. .

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(150).

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(152)

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