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Dynamic R&D Competition With Endogenous Innovation Targets and Leapfrogging

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Li rq wkh rwkhu kdqg zh dvvxph wkdw sureohp +4:, kdv h{dfwo| rqh vroxwlrq iru hdfk B/ wkhq wkh deryh zhdn lqhtxdolwlhv vkdushq wr vwulfw rqhv/ dqg wklv wlph zh duulyh dw d frqwudglfwlrq li {• é {f1 Dovr/ zh fdq zhdnhq wkh

uhtxluhphqw rq wkh ydoxh ixqfwlrq=

Uhpdun 5 Li wkh ydoxh ixqfwlrq lv qrq0lqfuhdvlqj/ dqg li sureohp +4:, kdv h{dfwo| rqh vroxwlrq iru hdfk B : f/ wkhq lqqrydwlrq wdujhwv { duh +vwulfwo|, lqfuhdvlqj1

Ri frxuvh/ wkh dgglwlrqdo frqglwlrq pd| eh gl!fxow wr fkhfn zlwkrxw vroylqj wkh sureohp lq wkh ?uvw sodfh1 Dssolfdwlrqv lqfoxgh fdvhv zkhuh ?uvw0 rughu frqglwlrqv duh kdug ru lpsrvvleoh wr vroyh h{solflwo| exw wkh vkdsh ri wkh ydoxh ixqfwlrq lv nqrzq1

(13)

715 Vwhs0e|0vwhs Wdujhwv

Lq vrph sduw ri wkh olwhudwxuh rq U)G udfhv/ iru h{dpsoh lq Djklrq/ Kduulv dqg Ylfnhuv +4<<:/ DKY,/ ?upv duh e| dvvxpswlrq frqvwudlqhg wr pdnlqj lqqrydwlrqv wkdw uhgxfh surgxfwlrq frvwv e| vrph h{rjhqrxvo| jlyhq frqvwdqw shufhqwdjh 4 5 Efc •ä/ ru pruh jhqhudoo| pdnh lqqrydwlrqv ri d ?{hg vl}h/ zklfk zh zloo fdoo vwhs0e|0vwhs lqqrydwlrq wdujhwv1 Zh zloo vkrz odwhu wkurxjk ydulrxv h{dpsohv wkdw vwhsslqj pd| lqghhg dulvh h{dfwo| ru dssur{lpdwho| lq htxloleulxp/ exw dv zhoo pd| eh idu r> wudfn1 Lq wklv vhfwlrq zh wdfnoh wklv vxemhfw h{solflwo| dqg/ xqghu vrph plog whfkqlfdo dvvxpswlrqv/ fkdudfwhul}h wkh ydoxh dqg sur?w ixqfwlrqv wkdw jlyh ulvh wr rswlpdo lqqrydwlrq wdujhwv { EBä ' 4B orfdoo| ru joredoo|1

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eh uhdfkhg duh ri wkh irup B ' Bf4?/ zkhuh ? 5 ] 'iéééc ý2c ý•c fc •c 2c ééééj

dqg 4 : f lv vrph frqvwdqw1 Wkhq *fdwfklqj xs* wr ehlqj qhfn0wr0qhfn dv lq DKY rffxuv li dqg rqo| li Bf ' 46 iru vrph 6 5 ]/ rwkhuzlvh ?upv zloo

dozd|v ohdsiurj hdfk rwkhu zkhq wkh| *phhw*1

Wr ehjlq wkh dqdo|vlv/ ohw iru B 5ýfc 7Bü/ zlwk 7B : f/

T EBä ' @fn @•Bkn @2Bqc +4<,

zlwk q : k è ý#/ @•k ÷ f dqg @2q ÷ f1 Dvvxph wkdw wkh rswlpdo wdujhw

lv { EBä ' 4B/ f ÷ 4 ÷ •/ dqg lqvhuw wklv h{suhvvlrq lqwr wkh ?uvw rughu frqglwlrq ri wkh pd{lpl}dwlrq sureohp

4@

{ {#

èEBäET E{ä ý T EBää

ohdglqj wr

@•EEk n #ä 4ký #ä Bkn @2ýEq n #ä 4q ý #üBq ' fé

Vlqfh wklv uhodwlrq pxvw krog iru doo B 5ýfc 7Bü/ wkh whupv lq wkh eudfnhwv pxvw eh lghqwlfdoo| }hur/ ru

4 ' E• n k*#ä3•*k ' E• n q*#ä3•*qé +53, Vlqfh wkhvh whupv duh vwulfwo| lqfuhdvlqj lq k dqg q +zlwk xsshu olplw htxdo wr 4,/ htxdolw| fdq rqo| krog li k ' q/ frqwudglfwlqj wkh dvvxpswlrq q : k1 Wkh vdph dujxphqw krogv li dq| frxqwdeoh qxpehu ri whupv zhuh lqfoxghg lq wkh ydoxh ixqfwlrq T / dqg wkh lpphgldwh frqfoxvlrq wkhuhiruh lv=

(14)

Uhpdun 6 Li wkh ydoxh ixqfwlrq rq B 5ýfc 7Bü/ lv ri wkh irup

T EBä ' @fn P"ð'•@ðBkðc +54,

zkhuh ý# ÷ k• ÷ ééé ÷ k? ÷ ééé/ @ðkð ÷ f/ wkhq { EBä ' 4B iru B 5 ýfc 7Bü

dqg iru vrph 4 5 Efc •ä li dqg rqo| li wkhuh lv h{dfwo| rqh æ ' •ééé? vxfk wkdw @æ 9' f1 Lq wklv fdvh wkh vwhs vl}h lv jlyhq e|

4 ' E• n kð*#ä3•*kðé +55,

Qrwh wkdw +54, grhv qrw fryhu wkh fdvh kð ' f/ zklfk dv|pswrwlfdoo|

fruuhvsrqgv wr T EBä ' ý *? B/ lq zklfk fdvh wkh rswlpdo lqqrydwlrq wdujhw lv lq idfw vwhs0e|0vwhs zlwk { EBä ' @h} 4@ { {# B> Eý *? { n *? Bä ' e3•*#B ' *ð4 k<fE• n k*#ä 3•*ké

Udwkhu wkdq dq h{fhswlrq wr wkh deryh frqfoxvlrqv/ wklv fdvh wxuqv rxw wr eh d erughu fdvh iru zklfk wkh hodvwlflw| ri wkh ydoxh ixqfwlrq lv 3/ d ydoxh iru zklfk rxu uhvxow rq wkh vwhs vl}h lv vwloo ydolg lq wkh olplw1 Zh zloo glvfxvv orjdulwkplf ydoxh ixqfwlrqv ixuwkhu lq wkh h{dpsohv vhfwlrq1

Li wkh ydoxh ixqfwlrq dqg lwv srvvleoh ghulydwlyhv duh h{whqgdeoh wr B ' f/ doorzlqj wr frqvlghu Wd|oru h{sdqvlrqv ri wkh ydoxh ixqfwlrq durxqg f/ wkhq vrph vwudljkwiruzdug frqfoxvlrqv iroorz=

Uhpdun 7 Ohw T eh gh?qhg dqg htxdo wr lwv Wd|oru vhulhv rq dfc 7Bä/ dqg ohw wkh rswlpdo lqqrydwlrq wdujhw eh jlyhq e| { EBä ' 4B iru vrph 4 5 Efc •ä iru doo B 5 dfc 7Bä1 Li wkh vorsh ri T lv qhjdwlyh dw B ' f wkhq T lv olqhdu rq dfc 7Bä/ dqg

4 ' #

#n•é +56,

Li wkh vorsh ri T lv }hur dw B ' f wkhq wkhuh lv d xqltxh lqwhjhu 6 : • vxfk wkdw T EBä ' @fn @6B6/ dqg

4 ' E• n 6*#ä3•*6é +57, Wkh ?uvw vwdwhphqw lv suryhg e| vhwwlqj k• ' • dqg @• ÷ f/ zklfk lv

qhfhvvdu| iru d qhjdwlyh vorsh dw B ' f/ qrwlqj wkdw wkh Wd|oru h{sdqvlrq ri T durxqg B ' f zloo eh

T EBä ' @fn @•B n @2B2n éééé

(15)

Li wkh vorsh dw B ' f lv }hur/ wkhuh zloo eh d xqltxh vpdoohvw lqwhjhu 6 : • vxfk wkdw

T EBä ' @fn @6B6n @6n•B6n•n ééééc

zlwk @6 ÷ f1

Lq erwk fdvhv/ wkh ydoxh ixqfwlrq zloo eh ri wkh irup T EBä ' @Bq n K +q

: ý#/ @q ÷ f,1 Wkh lqqrydwlrq wdujhw zloo eh

{ EBä ' E• n q*#ä3•q Bc +58,

dqg lqvhuwlqj wkhvh h{suhvvlrqv dqg {æE•*Bä ' E• n q*#ä3

q *B lq wkh htxd0

wlrq ghvfulelqj wkh ydoxh ixqfwlrq +6, zlwk txdgudwlf h>ruw frvwv S E5ä ' 52*2/

wkh fruuhvsrqglqj *fdqglgdwh* sur?w ixqfwlrqv duh eh irxqg wr eh

Z EBä ' k•B2E#nq3>än k2Bqn kôB2E>3#än kec +59,

zlwk

k• ' ý•2E@q*#ä242#n2q ÷ fc k2 ' o@c

kô ' E@q*#ä242#nq : fc ke ' oKé

Qrwh wkdw doo wkuhh h{srqhqwv frlqflgh li dqg rqo| li q ' 2 E> ý #ä1 Wklv fdqglgdwh sur?w ixqfwlrq pd| qrw eh qrq0lqfuhdvlqj/ krzhyhu/ ghshqglqj lq d frpsolfdwhg zd| rq doo sdudphwhuv lqyroyhg/ lq zklfk fdvh iru wklv vhw ri sdudphwhuv wkh ydoxh ixqfwlrq fdqqrw eh ri wkh irup jlyhq +dqg jlyhq wkh dvvxpswlrqv rq T / wkh lqqrydwlrq wdujhw fdqqrw eh d frqvwdqw shufhqwdjh ri frvw uhgxfwlrq,1 D vhw ri vx!flhqw frqglwlrqv +lq dgglwlrq wr @q ÷ f, iru d qhjdwlyh ghulydwlyh ri Z lv

# ý > n q è fc # ý > è fc

dv fdq eh hdvlo| vhhq iurp k• ÷ f dqg kô : f1 Wkxv/ wkh deryh idplo| ri

sur?w ixqfwlrqv lv yhu| vshfldo/ dqg lqwlpdwho| olqnhg wr wkh sdudphwhuv ri wkh lqqrydwlrq whfkqrorj|1 Pruhryhu/ lw lv rqo| rqh0glphqvlrqdo jlyhq o/ #/ dqg >1

Wr vxp xs/ wkh suhfhglqj glvfxvvlrq vkrzv wkdw/ li zh uhtxluh wkdw wkh ydoxh ixqfwlrq kdv dq h{sdqvlrq durxqg }hur/ wkh idplo| ri sur?w ixqfwlrqv wkdw jlyh ulvh wr vwhs0e|0vwhs lqqrydwlrq wdujhwv lv d rqh0glphqvlrqdo idplo| lq wkh vsdfh ri doo sur?w ixqfwlrqv +wkhuhiruh d qxoo0vhw,/ dqg ghshqgv lqwulfdwho| rq wkh sdudphwhuv ri wkh lqqrydwlrq whfkqrorj|1

(16)

716 Ohdghuv* Lqqrydwlrq Wdujhwv

Wkh dqdo|vlv ri wkh odvw vhfwlrq fdq eh dssolhg lq dq dssur{lpdwh pdqqhu wr ghwhuplqh wkh hyroxwlrq ri wkh lqqrydwlrq wdujhwv iru ?upv wkdw duh idu dkhdg/ l1h1 zkhq B ä f1 Wr wklv hqg/ dvvxph wkdw iru B forvh wr }hur wkh ydoxh ixqfwlrq fdq eh uhsuhvhqwhg dv

T EBä ' ñfn ñ•Bkn J EBkä c +5:,

zkhuh wkh odvw whup frqyhujhv idvwhu wr }hur wkdq Bk/ dqg k è ý# lv wkh

dv|pswrwlf hodvwlflw| ri wkh ydoxh ixqfwlrq1 Wklv dssur{lpdwlrq pd| vwhp iurp d Wd|oru h{sdqvlrq derxw f +lq wkdw fdvh k lv d srvlwlyh lqwhjhu,/ ru pd| vlpso| ghvfuleh dv|pswrwlf ehkdylru dv h1j1 lq •*ýB n B2ü ä B3• iru B

forvh wr }hur1 Dovr/ dvvxph wkdw iru { $ f wkh lqqrydwlrq whfkqrorj| pd| eh dssur{lpdwhg dv

ú E{c Bä ' {#

èEBän J E{#ä c +5;,

iru vrph # : f/ wdnlqj rq lq wkh olplw wkh irup zh kdyh xvhg ehiruh1 Wkh pd{lpl}dwlrq sureohp lv wkhq 4@ f${$B í {# èEBän J E{#ä ì Eñ•{ký ñ•Bkn J EBkää c +5<, zlwk ?uvw rughu frqglwlrq ë # n k n JE{{#3•#3•än JE{ #ä {# ê {k 'ë# n JE{#3•ä {#3• ê í • n JEBBkkä ì Bké

Vlqfh iru B $ f dovr { $ f/ wkh vroxwlrq lq wkh olplw lv

{*B $ E• n k*#ä3•*k dv B $ fé +63, Ohw xv vxppdul}h=

Uhpdun 8 Li wkh ydoxh ixqfwlrq T dqg wkh lqqrydwlrq whfkqrorj| ú fdq eh dssur{lpdwhg dv lq +5:, dqg +5;,/ wkhq iru B $ f wkh uhodwlyh lqqrydwlrq wdujhw frqyhujhv wr d frqvwdqw ghshqglqj rq wkh hodvwlflwlhv ri wkh lqqrydwlrq whfkqrorj| dqg wkh ydoxh ixqfwlrq= {*B $ E• n k*#ä3•*k/ l1h1 wkh ohdghu sxuvxhv vwhs0e|0vwhs lqqrydwlrq wdujhwv1

Li wkh ydoxh ixqfwlrq lv ri wkh w|shv ghvfulehg lq wkh suhylrxv vhfwlrq zkhuh wkh vwhs vl}h 4 lv frqvwdqw/ wkhq qhfhvvdulo| 4 ' E• n k*#ä3•*k1

Zh zloo qrz dsso| wklv ?qglqj wr vrph ydoxh ixqfwlrqv/ vrph ri zklfk zloo dsshdu lq wkh h{dpsohv wuhdwhg ehorz1 Iru prvw ri wkhp wkh ?uvw rughu frqglwlrqv ghwhuplqlqj wkh lqqrydwlrq wdujhwv fdqqrw eh vroyhg h{solflwo|1

(17)

î T EBä ' E• n Bä3k' • ý kB n J EBä G {*B $ #* E# n •ä/ +f ÷ k,1

î T EBä ' i T EýbB6ä ' • ý bB6n J EBä G {*B $ E• n k*6ä3•*6/ +b : f/

6 5 Q,1

î T EBä ' ý *? E@ n Bä ' ý *? @ ý •

@B n J EBä G {*B $ #* E# n •ä +@ : f,1

Qrwh wkdw wkh lqqrydwlrq wdujhw grhv qrw ghshqg rq @/ zklfk fduulhv ryhu wr wkh olplw fdvh @ ' f1

717 Iroorzhuv* Lqqrydwlrq Wdujhwv

Lq wklv vhfwlrq zh zloo fkdudfwhul}h wkh lqqrydwlrq wdujhwv iru d ?up wkdw lv yhu| idu ehklqg1 Dovr/ wklv dqdo|vlv zloo jlyh lpsruwdqw lqvljkwv lqwr wkh rffxuuhqfh ri ohdsiurjjlqj= D ?up wkdw ohdsiurjv zkhq lw lv yhu| idu ehklqg/ l1h1 lq wkh olplw B $ 4/ zloo ohdsiurj dovr zkhq lw lv forvhu +dqg wkhuhiruh dozd|v,1 Rq wkh rwkhu kdqg/ d ?up pd| wu| wr fdwfk xs zlwk wkh ohdghu pruh lq d vwhs0e|0vwhs idvklrq dqg ohdsiurj rqo| zkhq lw lv forvh1 Zh vkrz lq wkh iroorzlqj wkdw wkh uhvxowlqj ehkdylru ghshqgv rq wkh lqwhusod| ehwzhhq wkh sur?w ixqfwlrq Z dqg wkh lqqrydwlrq whfkqrorj| ú1

Dvvxph wkdw wkh ydoxh ixqfwlrq T kdv dq dv|pswrwlf h{sdqvlrq ri wkh irup

T EBä ' Kfn K•B3ò n JýB3òüc EòK• : fä c +64,

dv zhoo dv wkh lqqrydwlrq whfkqrorj|/ ú E{c Bä ' {#

èEBän J E{#ä c E# : fä c +65,

zkhuh *ð4%<"J E%ä *% ' f1 Wkh iroorzlqj dqdo|vlv lv whfkqlfdoo| yhu| vlplodu

wr wkh rqh lq wkh suhylrxv vhfwlrq/ dsduw iurp rqh ylwdo gl>huhqfh= Zh kdyh wr doorz iru wkh srvvlelolw| wkdw wkh lqqrydwlrq wdujhw { grhv qrw ulvh sur0 sruwlrqdoo| zlwk wkh vwdwh B/ lq sduwlfxodu wkdw { pd| uhpdlq erxqghg iurp deryh zkloh wkh vwdwh B jrhv wr lq?qlw|1 Li wklv lv wkh fdvh zh pxvw xvh wkh h{dfw ixqfwlrqdo irup ri T E{ä lqvwhdg ri dssur{lpdwlqj lw dv|pswrwlfdoo|1

Ohw xv ?uvw wuhdw wkh fdvh zkhuh { jrhv wr lq?qlw| zlwk B1 Wkhq wkh pd{lpl}dwlrq sureohp lv 4@ f${$B í {# èEBän J E{#ä ì ý K•{3ò ý K•B3òn JýB3òüüc

zlwk dssur{lpdwh ?uvw rughu frqvwudlqw ë # ý ò nJE{{#3•#3•än JE{ #ä {# ê {3ò ' ë # nJE{{#3•#3•ä ê ë • n JEBB3ò3òä ê B3òé

(18)

Lq wkh olplw wklv fdq eh zulwwhq dv

# E{*Bäò ' # ý òé +66, Frqwudu| wr wkh fdvh B $ f/ wklv ?uvw rughu frqglwlrq rqo| kdv d zhoo0gh?qhg vroxwlrq lq wkh olplw li ò ÷ #/ zlwk

{*B $ E• ý ò*#ä•*òé +67, Iru ò ' # lq wkh olplw lw iroorzv wkdw {*B $ f hyhq wkrxjk { pd| vwloo jr wr lq?qlw|1 Ilqdoo|/ iru ò : # zh duulyh dw dq rxwuljkw frqwudglfwlrq +wr wkh irup ri wkh h{sdqvlrq ri T , vlqfh wkh whup rq wkh ohiw ri +66, lv srvlwlyh1 Wkhuhiruh lq wklv fdvh { pxvw kdyh d ?qlwh olplw1

Ohw xv qrz wuhdw wkh fdvh ò ' #= Dvvxph wkdw wkh dv|pswrwlf h{sdqvlrq ri T fdq eh uh?qhg wr

T EBä ' Kf n K•B3# n K2B3ñ n JýB3ñüc ED : #ä é +68,

Wkh ?uvw rughu frqglwlrq wkhq ehfrphv lq wkh olplw +xvlqj B#3D $ f,

#K•{D ' K2ED ý #ä B#c

zklfk kdv d vroxwlrq li dqg rqo| li K2 ÷ f zlwk

{ ' EK2E• ý D*#ä *K•ä•*DB#*Dc +69,

l1h1 { vwloo frqyhujhv wr lq?qlw|/ exw vorzhu wkdq B1 Li rq wkh rwkhu kdqg dv|pswrwlfdoo| T EBä ' KfnK•B3#/ wkhq wkh rswlpdo lqqrydwlrq pd| eh lq?qlwh

ru ?qlwh/ ghshqglqj rq wkh h{dfw irup ri wkh ydoxh ixqfwlrq1

Ilqdoo| zh wuhdw wkh fdvh ri ò : # zkhuh wkh lqqrydwlrq wdujhw uhpdlqv ?qlwh1 Iru odujh B wkh pd{lpl}dwlrq sureohp fdq eh zulwwhq dv

4@

f${$Bú E{c Bä

ý

T E{ä ý Kfý K•B3ò n JýB3òüüc

dqg nqrzlqj wkdw { EBä uhpdlqv ?qlwh/ { EBä zloo eh forvh wr ì{ EBä ' @h} 4@

f${$Bú E{c Bä ET E{ä ý Kfä c +6:,

iru odujh B/ dw ohdvw li wklv pd{lpl}hu lv xqltxh1 ì{ EBä lv erxqghg iurp deryh vlqfh úT å {#3ò whqgv wr }hur iru odujh {1 Ohw

7{ ' *ð4

B<"ì{EBä ÷ 4 +6;,

li wklv olplw lv gh?qhg/ wkhq { EBä $ 7{ dv B $ 41 Wkxv/ wkh ghflvlrq zklfk w|sh ri vwudwhj| wr dgrsw ghshqgv rqo| rq wkh frpsdulvrq ri wkh hodvwlflwlhv ri wkh ydoxh ixqfwlrq +ò, dqg wkh lqqrydwlrq kd}dug +#,1

(19)

Uhpdun 9 Li wkh ydoxh ixqfwlrq T dqg lqqrydwlrq whfkqrorj| ú fdq eh ds0 sur{lpdwhg dv lq +64, dqg +65,/ wkhq iru B $ 4 wkh lqqrydwlrq wdujhw frq0 yhujhv dv iroorzv=

î ò ÷ #= { $ 4 dqg {*B $ E• ý ò*#ä•*ò/ wkh iroorzhu pdnhv vwhs0e|0 vwhs lqqrydwlrqv>

î ò ' #= { $ 4 dqg {*B#*D $ EK

2E• ý D*#ä *K•ä•*D +xqghu frqglwlrq

+68,,>

î ò : #= { $ 7{ ÷ 4/ l1h1 wkh iroorzhu pdwfkhv d fhuwdlq pxowlsoh ri wkh rssrqhqw*v ohyho ri surjuhvv1

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Zh dsso| wkh deryh uhvxowv wr vrph ydoxh ixqfwlrqv dqg frpsxwh wkh lqqrydwlrq wdujhwv=

î T EBä ' E• n Bä3k' B3ký kB3Ekn•än JíB3Ekn•äì/ +k : f,

k ÷ # G {*B $ E• ý k*#ä•*k k ' # G {*B#*E#n•ä $ •1

k : # G { $ #* Ek ý #ä zklfk lv wkh pd{lpl}hu ri {#* E• n {äk1 Lq

wkh fdvh ri 4Frxuqrw frpshwlwlrq4 zlwk k ' 2/ dqg # ' •/ wkh uhvxow lv { $ •* E2 ý •ä ' •/ forvh wr wkh qxphulfdo vroxwlrq vkrzq ehorz1;

î T EBä ' i T EýbB6ä/ +b : fc 6 5 Q,1 Vlqfh iru wklv ydoxh ixqfwlrq 4ò ' 44 +lw ghfd|v idvwhu wkdq dq| B3k zlwk k ÷ 4,/ { zloo kdyh d

?qlwh olplw htxdo wr @h} 4@ {#i T Eýb{6ä/ l1h1 { $ E#*b6ä6• 1

;Qrwh wkdw zkloh khuh zh vshfli| d irup ri wkh ydoxh ixqfwlrq/ lq wkh Frxuqrw h{dpsoh

wkh uhvxowlqj ydoxh ixqfwlrq lv rqo| dssur{lpdwho| ri wklv irup/ jlyhq wkh irup ri wkh sur?w ixqfwlrq1

(20)

î T EBä ' ý *? E@ n Bä ' ý *? B n J E*? Bä/ +@ è f,1 Vlqfh wklv ydoxh ixqfwlrq ghfuhdvhv vorzhu wkdq dq| B3k +k : f,/ d jrrg jxhvv jlyhq wkh

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(21)

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(22)

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(23)

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(24)

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(25)

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(26)

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:15 Dv|pswrwlf H{sdqvlrqv

Lq wklv dsshqgl{ zh zloo shuirup dq dqdo|vlv ri wkh frpshwlwlyh h>hfwv iru odujh glvfrxqwlqj/ xvlqj dv|pswrwlf h{sdqvlrqv dv o $ 4 dv lq Exgg hw do1 +4<<6/ EKY,1 Rxu dqdo|vlv zloo eh khxulvwlf/ iru dq h{dfw h{srvlwlrq ri wklv phwkrg zh uhihu wkh uhdghu wr EKY1 Zh dvvxph wkdw wkh iroorzlqj h{sdqvlrqv h{lvw47= ñ EBä ' oT EBä ' P" ?'fo3?ñ?EBä c { EBä ' P" ?'fo3?{?EBä 5 EBä ' P" ?'fo3?5?EBä

zkhuh iru doo f é ? é 2 wkh ixqfwlrqv ñ?Eéä/ {?Eéä/ 5?Eéä duh vx!flhqwo|

riwhq frqwlqxrxvo| gl>huhqwldeoh1 Dovr dvvxph wkdw wkh sur?w ixqfwlrq Z Eéä dqg wkh lqqrydwlrq whfkqrorj| ú Eéc Bä duh wzlfh frqwlqxrxvo| gl>huhqwldeoh1 Lq wkh iroorzlqj/ zh zloo vxssuhvv wkh dujxphqw B zkhqhyhu wklv grhv qrw ohdg wr dpeljxlwlhv1

Vwhs 4= H{sdqg ñ E{ä ' P"

?'fo3?ç?EBä dqg ñâE{ä ' P"?'fo3?ü?EBä=

47Vhh EKY iru dq h{dfw h{srvlwlrq ri wklv phwkrg1

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Frqvlghu f é 6 é 21 Xvlqj wkh h{sdqvlrq ri {/ zh ?qg wkdw ñ6E{ä ' ñ6E{fä n o3•ñ6â E{fä {•

no32ý•

2ñ6ââ E{fä {2•n ñ6â E{fä {2ün ïýo3ôü

li wkh ghulydwlyhv h{lvw1 Froohfwlqj whupv zlwk wkh vdph srzhuv ri o/ ñ E{ä ' ñfE{ä n o3•ñ•E{ä n o32ñ2E{ä n ïýo3ôü

' çfEBä n o3•ç•EBä n o32ç2EBä n ïýo3ôüc

zlwk

çfEBä ' ñfE{fä c

ç•EBä ' ñfâ E{fä {•n ñ•E{fä c

ç2EBä ' •2ñfââE{fä {2•n ñfâ E{fä {2n ñ•â E{fä {•n ñ2E{fä é

Surfhhglqj vlploduo|/ zh rewdlq ñâE{ä ' ü

fEBä n o3•ü•EBä n o32ü2EBä n ïýo3ôüc

üfEBä ' ñâfE{fä c

ü•EBä ' ñââfE{fä {•n ñ•â E{fä c

ü2EBä ' •2ñfâââE{fä {2•n ñfââE{fä {2n ñââ•E{fä {•n ñ2â E{fä é

Vwhs 5= Dqdo|}h wkh ?uvw rughu qhfhvvdu| frqvwudlqw rq h>ruw

oú E{c Bä Eñ E{ä ý ñ EBää ' SâE5 EBää c +6<,

xvlqj wkdw S E5ä ' 52*2 dqg ú E{c Bä ' lfEBä n o3•l •EBä n o32l2EBä n ï ý o3ôüc zlwk frh!flhqwv l? wr eh ghwhuplqhg odwhu1 Lq 5 EBä ' P" ?'fo3?5?EBä ' ýP" ?'fo3?l? ü û P" ?'fo3E?n•äEç?ý ñ?äú

frpsduh whupv ri rughu f dqg • lq o wr jhw 5fEBä ' f

5•EBä ' lfdñfE{fä ý ñfEBäo é

Vwhs 6= Dsso| +6<, wr wkh Kdplowrq0Mdfrel0Ehoopdq htxdwlrq +KME, gh?qlqj wkh ydoxh ixqfwlrq/

ñ EBä ' Z EBä n 52*2 n

(28)

zlwk 5æúæ dv wkh rssrqhqw*v kd}dug udwh/ dqg {æ lwv lqqrydwlrq wdujhw1 Wkhq

xvh 5fEBä ' f dqg ydulrxv vhulhv h{sdqvlrq wr uhvwdwh wkh KME dv

P"

?'fo3?ñ? ' Z nýP"?'•o3?5?ü2*2

nýP"

?'•o3?5?æüúæP?'f" o3E?n•äEñ?E•*{æä ý ñ?EBää é

Frpsdulqj whupv ri rughu f dqg • lq ohdgv wr ñfEBä ' Z EBä c ñ•EBä ' fé

Vwhs 7= Vlpsoli| ñ E{ä dqg ñâE{ä/ xvlqj wkh h{suhvvlrqv mxvw ghulyhg=

çfEBä ' Z E{fä ç•EBä ' ZâE{fä {• ç2EBä ' •2ZââE{fä {•2n ZâE{fä {2 n ñ2E{fä c dqg üfEBä ' ZâE{fä ü•EBä ' ZââE{fä {• ü2EBä ' •2ZâââE{fä {2•n ZââE{fä {2n ñ2â E{fä é

Vwhs 8= Qrz zh zloo dsso| wkh uhvxowv rewdlqhg vr idu wr wkh ?uvw rughu frqvwudlqw gh?qlqj wkh rswlpdo lqqrydwlrq wdujhwv/

úâdñ E{ä ý ñ EBäo n úñâE{ä ' fc +73,

zkhuh zh xvhg wkh vkruwkdqg úâ ' Yú*Y{ +úââ ' Y2ú*Y{2,1 H{sdqglqj

ú E{c Bä dqg úâE{c Bä derxw o3• ' f/ zh rewdlq +vxssuhvvlqj wkh dujxphqw B

lq ú dqg úâ iru frqflvhqhvv, ú E{ä ' lfEBä n o3•l •EBä n o32l2EBä n ï ý o3ôü ' ú E{fä n o3•úâE{fä {• no32ý• 2úââE{fä {2•n úâE{fä {2ün ïýo3ôüc dqg úâE{ä ' 1

fEBä n o3•1•EBä n o3212EBä n ï

ý o3ôü ' úâE{ fä n o3•úââE{fä {• no32ý• 2úâââE{fä {2•n úââE{fä {2ün ïýo3ôüé Vxevwlwxwlqj wkh h{sdqvlrqv lqwr +73,/ ý P" ?'fo3?1? ü û P" ?'fo3?Eç?ý ñ?äúnýP"?'fo3?l? ü ý P" ?'fo3?ü?ü' fc 5:

(29)

dqg froohfwlqj wkh whupv ri rughu f lq o3• ohdgv wr

1fEçfý ñfä n lfüf ' f

/ úâE{fä dZ E{fä ý Z EBäo n ú E{fä ZâE{fä ' fc

ru/ dvvxplqj wkdw wkh vhfrqg rughu frqvwudlqw lv vdwlv?hg/ {fEBä ' @h} 4@

{ ú E{c Bä dZ E{ä ý Z EBäo é

Froohfwlqj whupv ri rughu • lq o3•/

1fEç•ý ñ•ä n 1•Eçfý ñfä n lfü•n l•üf ' fc

/ ú E{fä ZââE{fä {•n 2úâE{fä ZâE{fä {•

núââE{

fä dZ E{fä ý Z EBäo {• ' fc

/ {•Y{Y22 Eú E{c Bä dZ E{ä ý Z EBäoä m{'{f ' fc

dqg dvvxplqj wkdw jhqhulfdoo| wkh vhfrqg rughu vx!flhqw frqglwlrq lv vdwlv?hg +Y2Eéä *Y{2 ÷ f,/ ohdgv wr

{•EBä ' fé

Vwhs 9= Vlpsoli| ñ E{ä/ ñâE{ä/ ú E{ä/ dqg úâE{ä xvlqj { • ' f= çf ' Z E{fä c ç• ' fc ç2 ' ZâE{fä {2n ñ2E{fä c üf ' ZâE{fä c ü• ' fc ü2 ' ZââE{fä {2n ñ2â E{fä c lf ' ú E{fä c l• ' fc l2 ' úâE{fä {2c 1f ' úâE{ fä c 1• ' fc 12 ' úââE{fä {2é

Vwhs := Ilqg 52EBä= Vlpsoli| wkh uhvxow iru 5•/ dqg frpsduh whupv ri rughu 2

lq o3• lq 5 EBä ' P" ?'•o3?5?EBä ' ýP" ?'fo3?l? ü û P" ?'fo3E?n•äEç?ý ñ?äúc wr rewdlq

5fEBä ' fc 5•EBä ' ú E{fä dZ E{fä ý Z EBäo

52EBä ' lfEç•EBä ý ñ•EBää n l•EçfEBä ý ñfEBää

' fé

Vwhs ;= Xvlqj wkh odvw uhvxow/ lghqwli| wkh whupv ri rughu 2 lq o3• lq wkh KME

htxdwlrq P" ?'fo3?ñ? ' Z nýP"?'•o3?5?ü2*2 nýP"?'•o3?5?æüû ý P" ?'fo3?ú?æ ü ý P"

(30)

wr rewdlq

ñ2 ' 5•2*2 n 5•æúfædñfE•*{æä ý ñfEBäo

' Eú E{fä dZ E{fä ý Z EBäoä2*2 n 5•æúfædZ E•*{fæä ý Z EBäo c

zkhuh 5•æc úfæc {fæduh wkh ?uvw whupv ri wkh uhvshfwlyh h{sdqvlrqv ri wkh rwkhu

?up1

Vwhs <= Ilqg {2/ wkh qh{w whup lq wkh h{sdqvlrq ri wkh rswlpdo h>ruw ohyho

e| froohfwlrq doo whupv ri rughu 5 lq o3• lq +73,=

1fEç2ý ñ2ä n 1•Eç•ý ñ•ä n 12Eçfý ñfä n lfü2n l•ü•n l2üf ' fc

/ úâE{

fä dZâE{fä {2 n ñ2E{fä ý ñ2EBäo n úââE{fä {2dZ E{fä ý Z EBäo

nú E{fä dZââE{fä {2n ñ2â E{fäo n úâE{fä {2ZâE{fä ' fc

zklfk fdq eh vlpsol?hg wr

{2EBä ' ýYYEúE{ädñ2EúE{ädZE{ä3ZEBäoä*Y{2E{ä3ñ2EBäoä*Y{2m{'{fé

Vwhs 43= Dsso| suhylrxv uhvxowv wr +6<, dqg froohfw whupv ri rughu 6 lq o3•

wr ?qg wkh qh{w whup lq wkh h{sdqvlrq ri 5 EBä= çf ' Z E{fä c ç• ' fc ç2 ' ZâE{fä {2n ñ2E{fä c üf ' ZâE{fä c ü• ' fc ü2 ' ZââE{fä {2n ñ2â E{fä c lf ' ú E{fä c l• ' fc l2 ' úâE{fä {2c 1f ' úâE{ fä c 1• ' fc 12 ' úââE{fä {2é 5ôEBä ' lfdç2ý ñ2o n l•dç• ý ñ•o n l2dçfý ñfo ' ú E{fä dZâE{fä {2n ñ2E{fä ý ñ2EBäo n úâE{fä {2dZ E{fä ý Z EBäo

' {2Y{Y Eú E{ä dZ E{ä ý Z EBäoä m{'{f n ú E{fä dñ2E{fä ý ñ2EBäo

' ú E{fc Bä dñ2E{fä ý ñ2EBäo c

vlqfh wkh ghulydwlyh lv }hur1

Dv lq EKY wkhvh h{sdqvlrqv frxog eh frqwlqxhg wr ?qg kljkhu0rughu hi0 ihfwv/ exw wkhvh zloo eh kdug wr lqwhusuhw vlqfh wkh| zloo eh d pl{wxuh ri wkh rwkhu h>hfwv dqg lqyroyh kljkhu0rughu ghulydwlyhv ri wkh xqghuo|lqj rz sur?wv dqg lqqrydwlrq whfkqrorj|1

(31)

Uhihuhqfhv

^4` Djklrq/ Sklolssh/ Kduulv/ Fkulvwrskhu/ dqg Ylfnhuv/ Mrkq +4<<:,1 4Frp0 shwlwlrq dqg jurzwk zlwk vwhs0e|0vwhs lqqrydwlrq= Dq h{dpsoh41 Hxurshdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz/ 74=::48;51

^5` Djklrq/ Sklolssh dqg Krzlww/ Shwhu +4<<5,1 4D Prgho ri Jurzwk wkurxjk Fuhdwlyh Ghvwuxfwlrq41 Hfrqrphwulfd/ 93+5,=65686841

^6` Djklrq/ Sklolssh dqg Krzlww/ Shwhu +4<<;,1 Hqgrjhqrxv Jurzwk Wkhru|1 Fdpeulgjh/ PD= PLW Suhvv1

^7` Dpdeoh/ Euxqr +4<<9,1 4Furlvvdqfh hw F|fohv Hqgrjëqhv Lqgxlwv Sdu Ohv Lqqrydwlrqv Udglfdohv hw Lqfuìphqwdohv41 Dqqdohv g*Ìfrqrplh hw gh Vwdwlvwltxh/ 77=<484431

^8` Exgg/ Fkulvwrskhu/ Kduulv/ Fkulvwrskhu/ dqg Ylfnhuv/ Mrkq +4<<6,1 4D Prgho ri wkh Hyroxwlrq ri Gxrsro|= Grhv wkh Dv|pphwu| ehwzhhq Ilupv Whqg wr Lqfuhdvh ru GhfuhdvhB41 Uhylhz ri Hfrqrplf Vwxglhv/ 93=8768:61 ^9` Fdeudo/ Oxðv P1 E1 +4<<:,1 4Irrwedoo/ Vdlolqj/ Whqqlv dqg U)G= G|qdplf

Frpshwlwlrq zlwk Vwudwhjlf Fkrlfh ri Yduldqfh dqg Fr0Yduldqfh41 OEV/ plphr1

^:` Kduulv/ Fkulvwrskhu dqg Ylfnhuv/ Mrkq +4<;:,1 4Udflqj zlwk Xqfhu0 wdlqw|41 Uhylhz ri Hfrqrplf Vwxglhv/ 87=48541

^;` Krhuqlj/ Vwh>hq +4<<;,1 4Dv|pphwulf Htxloleuld lq dq U)G Udfh zlwk Hqgrjhqrxv Fkrlfh ri Vwhs Vl}h41 plphr/ Hxurshdq Xqlyhuvlw| Lqvwlwxwh/ Ioruhqfh1

^<` Krhuqlj/ Vwh>hq +4<<;e,1 4D Qrwh rq 4Frpshwlwlrq dqg Jurzwk zlwk Vwhs0e|0Vwhs Lqqrydwlrq= Dq H{dpsoh441 plphr/ Hxurshdq Xqlyhuvlw| Lqvwlwxwh/ Ioruhqfh1

^43` Ohh/ W1 dqg Zlogh/ O1 +4<;3,1 4Pdunhw Vwuxfwxuh dqg Lqqrydwlrq= D Uhirupxodwlrq41 Txduwhuo| Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv/ <7=75<87691

^44` Orxu|/ J1 +4<:<,1 4Pdunhw Vwuxfwxuh dqg Lqqrydwlrq41 Txduwhuo| Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv/ <6=6<887431

^45` Pdooldulv/ D1J1 dqg Z1D1Eurfn +4<;5,1 Vwrfkdvwlf Phwkrgv lq Hfrqrplfv dqg Ilqdqfh1 Dpvwhugdp= Qruwk0Kroodqg1

(32)

^46` Pduwlq/ Vwhyhq +4<<6,1 Dgydqfhg Lqgxvwuldo Hfrqrplfv1 R{irug= Eodfn0 zhoo1

^47` Pdvnlq/ Hulf dqg Wluroh/ Mhdq +4<<:,1 4Pdunry Shuihfw Htxloleulxp/ L= Revhuydeoh Dfwlrqv41 Kduydug Lqvwlwxwh ri Hfrqrplf Uhvhdufk Glvfxvvlrq Sdshu 4:<<1

^48` Prwwd/ Pdvvlpr/ Wklvvh/ Mdftxhv0Iudqêrlv/ dqg Fdeudohv/ Dqwrqlr +4<<:,1 4Rq wkh Shuvlvwhqfh ri Ohdghuvkls ru Ohdsiurjjlqj lq Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Wudgh41 Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplf Uhylhz/ 6;+7,=;3<8571

^49` Uhlqjdqxp/ Mhqqlihu I1 +4<;4,1 4G|qdplf Jdphv ri Lqqrydwlrq41 Mrxu0 qdo ri Hfrqrplf Wkhru|/ 58=548741 fi1 +4<;8, %Fruuljhqgxp%/ 68/ 4<90:1 ^4:` Uhlqjdqxp/ Mhqqlihu I1 +4<;8,1 4Lqqrydwlrq dqg Lqgxvwu| Hyroxwlrq41

Txduwhuo| Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv/ sdjhv ;48<<1

^4;` Uhlqjdqxp/ Mhqqlihu I1 +4<;<,1 4Wkh Wlplqj ri Lqqrydwlrqv41 Lq Vfkpdohqvhh/ U1 dqg Zloolj/ U1/ hglwruv/ Kdqgerrn ri Lqgxvwuldo Rujdql}d0 wlrq/ fkdswhu 471 Dpvwhugdp= Qruwk0Kroodqg1

^4<` Urvhqnudq}/ Vwhskdqlh +4<<9,1 4Txdolw| Lpsuryhphqwv dqg wkh Lqfhqwlyh wr Ohdsiurj41 Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Mrxuqdo ri Lqgxvwuldo Rujdql}dwlrq/ 48=5768941 ^53` Vfkhuhu/ Iuhghulf P1 +4<<5,1 Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Kljk0Whfkqrorj| Frpshwlwlrq1

Fdpeulgjh/ PD= Kduydug Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv1

^54` Vwrnh|/ Qdqf| O1 dqg Oxfdv/ Urehuw H1 +4<;<,1 Uhfxuvlyh Phwkrgv lq Hfrqrplf G|qdplfv1 Fdpeulgjh/ PD= Kduydug Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv1

^55` Wluroh/ Mhdq +4<;;,1 Wkh Wkhru| ri Lqgxvwuldo Rujdql}dwlrq1 Fdpeulgjh/ PD= PLW Suhvv1

^56` Zhuqhuihow/ Elujhu +4<;;,1 4Rq H{lvwhqfh ri d Qdvk Htxloleulxp Srlqw lq Q0Shuvrq Qrq0]hur Vxp Vwrfkdvwlf Mxps Gl>huhqwldo Jdphv41 Rswlpdo Frqwuro Dssolfdwlrqv dqg Phwkrgv/ <=77<87891

Referências

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