7KHLQÀXHQFHRIZDWHUPDQDJHPHQWDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOFRQ
GLWLRQVRQWKHFKHPLFDOFRPSRVLWLRQDQGEHYHUDJHTXDOLW\RI
FRIIHHEHDQV
(PHUVRQ$GD6LOYD3DXOR0D]]DIHUD2ULYDOGR%UXQLQL(PtOLR6DNDL)OiYLR%$UUXGD/XL]+HQ ULTXH&0DWWRVR&iVVLD5/&DUYDOKRDQG5HJLQD&pOLD03LUHV
&HQWURGH3HVTXLVDH'HVHQYROYLPHQWRGH(FR¿VLRORJLDH%LRItVLFD,QVWLWXWR$JURQ{PLFRGH&DPSLQDV&3&(3&DPSLQDV
63%UDVLO'HSDUWDPHQWRGH)LVLRORJLD9HJHWDO,QVWLWXWRGH%LRORJLD8QLYHUVLGDGH(VWDGXDOGH&DPSLQDV&(3&DPSLQDV
63%UDVLO&HQWUR1DFLRQDOGH3HVTXLVDH'HVHQYROYLPHQWRGH,QVWUXPHQWDomR$JURSHFXiULD(0%5$3$&(36mR&DUORV
63%UD]LO&HQWURGH3HVTXLVDH'HVHQYROYLPHQWRGH5HFXUVRV*HQpWLFRV9HJHWDLV,QVWLWXWR$JURQ{PLFRGH&DPSLQDV&(3
&DPSLQDV63%UDVLO&RUUHVSRQGLQJDXWKRUHDVLOYD#LERWVSJRYEU 5HFHLYHG$FFHSWHG
7KHLQÀXHQFHRIHQYLURQPHQWDOFRQGLWLRQVDQGLUULJDWLRQRQWKHFKHPLFDOFRPSRVLWLRQRIJUHHQFRIIHHEHDQVDQGWKHUHODWLRQVKLS RIWKHVHSDUDPHWHUVWRWKHTXDOLW\RIWKHEHYHUDJHZHUHLQYHVWLJDWHGLQFRIIHHSODQWDWLRQVLQWKHUHJLRQVRI$GDPDQWLQD0RFRFD DQG&DPSLQDVLQWKHVWDWHRI6m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ÀXHQFLQJIDFWRURQELRFKHPLFDOFRPSRVLWLRQ$SURQRXQFHGGLIIHUHQFHZDVREVHUYHGLQ$GDPDQWLQDZKHUHDQQXDO DYHUDJHDLUWHPSHUDWXUHZDV&ZDUPHUWKDQLQWKHRWKHUWZRDUHDVDQGDERXW&DERYHWRWKHRSWLPDOOLPLWIRUFRIIHH FXOWLYDWLRQ
.H\ZRUGVDLUWHPSHUDWXUHEHYHUDJHFRIIHHTXDOLW\QLWURJHQFRPSRXQGV
,QÀXrQFLDGHFRQGLo}HVDPELHQWDLVHGDLUULJDomRQDFRPSRVLomRTXtPLFDHQDTXDOLGDGHGHEHELGDGRFDIp$LQÀXrQFLD GDVFRQGLo}HVDPELHQWDLVHGRPDQHMRGDLUULJDomRQDFRPSRVLomRTXtPLFDGRJUmRGHFDIpYHUGHHVXDUHODomRFRPDTXDOLGDGH GH EHELGD IRUDP LQYHVWLJDGDV HP FDIHHLURV FXOWLYDGRV QDV UHJL}HV SDXOLVWDV GH $GDPDQWLQD 0RFRFD H &DPSLQDV$ FRPSRVLomRTXtPLFDHDOJXQVDVSHFWRVItVLFRVGRVJUmRVGHFDIpYHUGHSURGX]LGRVQRVGLIHUHQWHVWUDWDPHQWRVHORFDLVGHFXOWLYR IRUDPUHODFLRQDGRVjTXDOLGDGHGHEHELGDGHWHUPLQDGDSRUDQiOLVHVVHQVRULDLVHHOHWU{QLFDV2VGDGRVWUDWDGRVSRUDQiOLVHVGH FRPSRQHQWHVSULQFLSDLVGHPRQVWUDUDPTXHDFRPSRVLomRTXtPLFDGRVJUmRVSHUPLWLXDGLIHUHQFLDomRGRFDIpSURGX]LGRHP GLIHUHQWHVUHJL}HVVHQGRDVYDULDo}HVQDFRPSRVLomRGDVVHPHQWHVSHUFHSWtYHLVQDDQiOLVHGDEHELGDSHORPpWRGRHOHWU{QLFR PDVQmRSHODVDQiOLVHVVHQVRULDLV$LUULJDomRQmRIRLIDWRUFRQGLFLRQDQWHQDFRPSRVLomRTXtPLFDGRVFDIpVFRPSRXFDRX QHQKXPDGLIHUHQoDVLJQL¿FDWLYDHPUHODomRDFDIHHLURVQmRLUULJDGRVVHQGRWDLVGLIHUHQoDVFRQGLFLRQDGDVSHORORFDOGHFXOWLYR DVTXDLVDFUHGLWDVHVHULDPLQÀXHQFLDGDVSHODWHPSHUDWXUDGRDUTXHIRLHPPpGLDD&PDLVDOWDHP$GDPDQWLQDHP UHODomRUHVSHFWLYDPHQWHD0RFRFDH&DPSLQDVHFHUFDGH&DFLPDGROLPLWHGHWHPSHUDWXUDFRQVLGHUDGRyWLPRSDUDR FXOWLYRGRFDIHHLUR
,1752'8&7,21
6HYHUDOVWXGLHVKDYHDWWHPSWHGWRHVWDEOLVKDUHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQWKHFKHPLFDOFRPSRVLWLRQRIJUHHQFRIIHHEHDQVZLWK EHYHUDJH TXDOLW\ VHHNLQJ VXEVWDQFHV RU SUHFXUVRUV ZKLFK PD\ XQGHUOLH WKH DFFHSWDQFH RU UHMHFWLRQ RI WKH EHYHUDJH &OLIIRUG $OWKRXJK D GLI¿FXOW WDVN SURWHLQV DPLQR DFLGV FDUERK\GUDWHV DQG SKHQROLF FRPSRXQGV KDYH EHHQ LQGLFDWHG DV LPSRUWDQW FRPSRXQGV IRU WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI DJRRGFRIIHHEHYHUDJH&OLIIRUG5RJHUVHWDO DE6KLPL]XDQG0D]]DIHUD6HOPDUHWDO 0RQWDYRQHWDODE7KHDFWLRQRISRO\SKHQROR[LGDVH $PRULP DQG $PRULP DQG SURWHDVHV /XGZLJ HW DO XSRQ VRPH RI WKHVH FRQVWLWXHQWV KDV DOVR EHHQ VXJJHVWHGWRSOD\DUROHLQGHWHUPLQLQJWKHTXDOLW\RIFRIIHH DOWKRXJKWKHLPSRUWDQFHRISRO\SKHQROR[LGDVHLQWKLVUHVSHFW KDVEHHQTXHVWLRQHG0D]]DIHUDHWDO
7KH FRQFHQWUDWLRQV DQG WKH PHFKDQLVPV RI DFWLRQ IRU WKH FRPSRXQGV PHQWLRQHG DERYH DQG KRZ WKH\ DIIHFW WKH EHYHUDJHTXDOLW\UHPDLQXQNQRZQ0RQWDYRQHWDOD +RZHYHULQDGGLWLRQWRWKHJHQHWLFEDFNJURXQG&DUYDOKR 6FKRO] HW DO DQG WKH KDUYHVWLQJ DQG SRVW KDUYHVWLQJ SURFHGXUHV &ODUNH 9LQFHQW WKH SURGXFWLRQ RI JRRG TXDOLW\ FRIIHH EHDQV LQ VSHFL¿F DUHDV FKDUDFWHUL]HGE\WKHLUFOLPDWLFFRQGLWLRQVFOHDUO\VKRZVWKDW WKHFOLPDWHLVDQLPSRUWDQWIDFWRULQGHWHUPLQLQJWKHTXDOLW\ RI WKH FRIIHH EHYHUDJH 'HVSLWH WKHLU HYLGHQW DJURQRPLF LPSRUWDQFH WKH LQÀXHQFH RI HQYLURQPHQWDO IDFWRUV VXFK DV FOLPDWH VRLO FXOWLYDWLRQ SUDFWLFHV DQG LUULJDWLRQ KDV QRW EHHQH[WHQVLYHO\LQYHVWLJDWHG1MRURJH,Q%UD]LOLWLV ZHOOHVWDEOLVKHGWKDWFRIIHHEHDQVIURPFHUWDLQUHJLRQVVXFK DV0LQDV*HUDLV6WDWHJLYHEHWWHUFXSTXDOLW\,WLVEHOLHYHG WKDWWKHORZHUPHDQWHPSHUDWXUHRIFHUWDLQORFDOLWLHVLQWKLV VWDWHSOD\VDQLPSRUWDQWUROHLQWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIDWWULEXWHV FRQIHUULQJJRRGTXDOLW\$OWKRXJKODFNLQJVFLHQWL¿FVXSSRUWLW LVFRPPRQO\FRQVLGHUHGE\IDUPHUVWKDWDWORZHUWHPSHUDWXUH FRIIHHIUXLWVXQGHUJRDVORZHUPDWXUDWLRQSURFHVVFRPSDUHG ZLWK FRIIHH IUXLWV IURP ZDUPHU UHJLRQV DOORZLQJ WKH IXOO PDQLIHVWDWLRQ RI DOO ELRFKHPLFDO VWHSV QHFHVVDU\ IRU WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI EHYHUDJH TXDOLW\7ZR UHSRUWV KDYH VKRZQ WKDWWKLVSKHQRPHQRQPD\LQGHHGRFFXUVLQ$UDELFDFRIIHHV *X\RWHWDO'HFD]\HWDOEXWXQIRUWXQDWHO\LQ ERWKVWXGLHVDFWXDOWHPSHUDWXUHVZHUHQRWUHFRUGHG
'HFD]]\ HW DO HYDOXDWHG WKH TXDOLW\ RI WKH +RQGXUDQFRIIHHVVWXG\LQJSORWVRI$UDELFDFRIIHHVSUHDG WKURXJKRXW VL[ SURGXFLQJ UHJLRQV 3ULQFLSDO FRPSRQHQWV DQDO\VLVEDVHGRQWKHFKHPLFDOFRPSRVLWLRQOLSLGVFDIIHLQH WULJRQHOOLQH DQG FKORURJHQLF DFLG FRQWHQWV DJURQRPLFDO
FKDUDFWHULVWLFV VKDGH YLJRU \LHOG HQYLURQPHQWDO IDFWRUV UDLQIDOO DOWLWXGH ODWLWXGH DQG ORQJLWXGH DQG GHJUHH RI URDVWLQJ DOOLHG WR VHQVRULDO FODVVL¿FDWLRQ RI WKH EHYHUDJH LQGLFDWHG WKDW WKH EHVW FRIIHHV ZHUH REWDLQHG DW DOWLWXGHV DERYH P ZKHUH WKH DQQXDO UDLQIDOO UHPDLQHG EHORZ PP,QDGGLWLRQWKHPRUHDFLGLFFRIIHHVKDGDKLJKHU FRQWHQWRIOLSLGVVXFURVHDQGFKORURJHQLFDFLG$QLQYHUVH UHODWLRQVKLS ZDV REVHUYHG EHWZHHQ WKH OLSLG FRQWHQW DQG UDLQIDOO 7R RXU NQRZOHGJH WKLV LV WKH RQO\ VWXG\ WKDW KDV DWWHPSWHGWRHVWDEOLVKDUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQHQYLURQPHQWDO IDFWRUVFKHPLFDOFRPSRVLWLRQDQGFRIIHHTXDOLW\
,Q %UD]LO FRIIHH LV FXOWLYDWHG XQGHU D ODUJH UDQJH RI HGDSKRFOLPDWLF FRQGLWLRQV DQG FXOWLYDWLRQ KDV VSUHDG WR QHZDUHDVSUHYLRXVO\FODVVL¿HGDVLQDSSURSULDWHEHFDXVHRI WKHORZUDLQIDOORUSRRUUDLQIDOOGLVWULEXWLRQWKURXJKRXWWKH \HDU$FFRUGLQJ WR &DPDUJR HW DO ODUJH YDULDWLRQV LQUDLQIDOODQGWHPSHUDWXUHDUHUHVSRQVLEOHIRUWKHUDQJHRI FRIIHH W\SHV IURP 5LR W\SH WR JRXUPHW IRXQG LQ %UD]LO +RZHYHUQRVWXG\KDVVSHFL¿FDOO\DVVHVVHGWKHLQÀXHQFHRI GLIIHUHQWFXOWLYDWLRQSUDFWLFHVLQFOXGLQJLUULJDWLRQRQFRIIHH TXDOLW\0RVWLQYHVWLJDWLRQVVRIDUKDYHIRFXVHGPDLQO\RQ WKH HIIHFWV RI LUULJDWLRQ RQ FRIIHH SURGXFWLYLW\ DQG RQ WKH V\QFKURQL]DWLRQRIÀRZHULQJ&DUU
$QRWKHU DVSHFW WKDW KDV KLQGHUHG WKH HVWDEOLVKPHQW RI DUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQFKHPLFDOFRPSRVLWLRQRIFRIIHHDQG WKHTXDOLW\LVWKHVXEMHFWLYHQDWXUHRIEHYHUDJHFODVVL¿FDWLRQ 6WDWLVWLFDOVWXGLHVVXJJHVWHGWKDWWKHVHQVRULDOFODVVL¿FDWLRQ GRQH E\ WUDLQHG WDVWHUV LV VXVFHSWLEOH WR HUURUV &DUYDOKR HWDO)RUWKLVUHDVRQWKHXVHRIDQDUWL¿FLDOVHQVRU NQRZQDVWKH³HOHFWURQLFWRQJXH´)HUUHLUDHWDO5LXO -UHWDOFDSDEOHRIGLVWLQJXLVKLQJGLIIHUHQWVROXWLRQV DQGFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQSDUWVSHUELOOLRQSSEKDVSURYHGWREH DPRUHUHOLDEOHDSSURDFKLQGLIIHUHQWLDWLQJFRIIHHTXDOLW\
,Q WKLV VWXG\ ZH KDYH HYDOXDWHG WKH LQÀXHQFH RI WKUHH GLVWLQFWHGDSKRFOLPDWLFFRQGLWLRQVDQGWKHXVHRILUULJDWLRQ RQ WKH FKHPLFDO FRPSRVLWLRQ RI JUHHQ FRIIHH EHDQ DQG DWWHPSWHGWRHVWDEOLVKDUHODWLRQVKLSZLWKFXSTXDOLW\
0$7(5,$/$1'0(7+2'6
3ODQWPDWHULDOHGDSKRFOLPDWLFFRQGLWLRQVKDUYHVWLQJDQG
VDPSOH SUHSDUDWLRQ&RIIHH VHHGV ZHUH KDUYHVWHG IURP
$UDELFDFRIIHHWUHHV&RIIHDDUDELFD/FY2EDWm,$&
PDQG&DPSLQDV&3¶6¶:DOWLWXGH P 7KH VRLOV RI WKH WKUHH ORFDOLWLHV ZHUH FODVVL¿HG 6RLO 6XUYH\ 6WDII DV 5KRGLF HXWUXVWR[ $GDPDQWLQD 7\SLFKDSOXGXOW0RFRFDDQG5KRGLFHXWUXGR[&DPSLQDV 3UDGR 7KH QRUPDO DQQXDO PHDQ DLU WHPSHUDWXUH DQG WRWDO UDLQIDOO IRU $GDPDQWLQD 0RFRFD DQG &DPSLQDV ZHUHDQG&DQGDQGPP UHVSHFWLYHO\GDWDIURPWKH&HQWUR,QWHJUDGRGH,QIRUPDo}HV $JURPHWHRUROyJLFDV ,QVWLWXWR $JURQ{PLFR GH &DPSLQDV
KWWSZZZLDFVSJRYEUFLLDJUR ZKLFK FODVVL¿HV WKHVH
ORFDOLWLHV DV PDFURFOLPDWH &ZD DV GH¿QHG LQ WKH .|SSHQ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO &ODVVL¿FDWLRQ 5XVVR -U 'XULQJ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO SHULRG WKH PHDQ DLU WHPSHUDWXUH 7D DQG WKH WRWDO UDLQIDOO ZHUH REWDLQHG DW IRUWQLJKWO\ LQWHUYDOV IURP DXWRPDWHG ZHDWKHU VWDWLRQV ORFDWHG DSSUR[LPDWHO\ P IURPWKHWHVWDUHDV
$W DOO WKUHH ORFDOLWLHV WKH SODQWV ZHUH GLVWULEXWHG XVLQJ DUDQGRPH[SHULPHQWDOGHVLJQDQGWKHLUULJDWLRQWUHDWPHQWV DSSOLHGZHUHQRQLUULJDWHG1,FRQWLQXRXVLUULJDWLRQ&, DQG LUULJDWLRQ VXVSHQGHG IRU GD\V LQ -XO\ , DQG GD\V LQ -XO\ DQG $XJXVW , (DFK WUHDWPHQW LQYROYHG WHQSODQWV$VXUIDFHGULSSLQJLUULJDWLRQV\VWHPZDVXVHGWR SURYLGHPPRIZDWHUSHUGD\LQWKHWUHDWPHQWVUHFHLYLQJ LUULJDWLRQ 7KLV YDOXH ZDV GHWHUPLQHG EDVHG RQ WKH PHDQ GDLO\ HYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQ DW$GDPDQWLQD PP 0RFRFD PPDQG&DPSLQDVPP
)UXLWVZHUHKDUYHVWHGE\VWULSSLQJWKHEUDQFKHVRYHUD VLHYHDQGWKHIUXLWZHLJKWIRUHDFKSODQWZDVUHFRUGHG6LQFH 6LOYDREVHUYHGWKDWFRQWLQXRXVLUULJDWLRQUHWDUGVFRIIHH ULSHQLQJ DQG NQRZLQJ WKDW LPPDWXUH FRIIHHV DIIHFW FRIIHH TXDOLW\0D]]DIHUDRQO\IXOO\ULSHIUXLWVZHUHVHOHFWHG FKHUULHVDQGGULHGRQVLHYHVPDLQWDLQHGLQIXOOVXQOLJKW7KH GULHGIUXLWVZHUHVWRUHGLQSDSHUEDJVDWKXPLGLW\DQG XVHGIRUFKHPLFDODQGVHQVRULDOHYDOXDWLRQV)RUHDFKSODQW WKHGULHGIUXLWVZHUHGHKXVNHGDQGWKHIUHVKZHLJKWRI JUDLQVZDVREWDLQHGDVZHOODVWKHPHDQJUDLQVL]H066 FDOFXODWHG E\ WKH PHDQ VLHYH PHWKRG .UXJ 6RLO DQDO\VHV ZHUH FDUULHG RXW IRU WKH WKUHH H[SHULPHQWDO SORWV DQGGXULQJWKHH[SHULPHQWWKHFRIIHHSODQWVZHUHIHUWLOL]HGDV UHFRPPHQGHG)D]XROLHWDO
&KHPLFDO DQDO\VLV $OWKRXJK FRIIHH SURGXFWLRQ ZDV
GHWHUPLQHGXVLQJWHQSODQWVWKHFKHPLFDODQDO\VHVZHUHFDUULHG RXW ZLWK ¿YH FRPSRVW UHSOLFDWHV SUHSDUHG IURP WHQ SODQWV 7RWDO VROXEOH VXJDUV UHGXFLQJ VXJDUV VXFURVH WRWDO VROXEOH SKHQROLFFRPSRXQGVFKORURJHQLFDFLGFDIIHR\OTXLQLFDFLG &4$ FDIIHLQH VROXEOH SURWHLQ DQG VROXEOH DPLQR DFLGV
ZHUHGHWHUPLQHGLQWKHVDPHHWKDQROLFH[WUDFW7KHVHHGVZHUH IUHH]HGULHGDQG¿QHO\JURXQGLQDEDOOPLOO([WUDFWLRQPJ LQP/HWKDQROZDWHUZDVFDUULHGRXWLQVFUHZFDSSHG WXEHVDW&IRUKZLWKRFFDVLRQDODJLWDWLRQ7KHVDPSOHV ZHUHWKHQFHQWULIXJHGLQDEHQFKWRSFHQWULIXJHUSP
IRU PLQ DQG WKH VXSHUQDWDQWV ZHUH VWRUHG DW R& XQWLO
DQDO\VLV 7KH SHOOHWV IURP WKH FHQWULIXJDWLRQ ZHUH H[WUDFWHG ZLWK PO RI GLPHWK\OVXOIR[LGH '062 IRU K DW URRPWHPSHUDWXUHZLWKFRQVWDQWDJLWDWLRQ$IWHUWKLVSHULRG WKH VDPSOHV ZHUH FHQWULIXJHG USP DQG WKH '062 IUDFWLRQXVHGIRUWKHGHWHUPLQDWLRQRIVWDUFKXVLQJJOXFRVHDV VWDQGDUG0F5HDG\
7KHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIVROXEOHVXJDUV0F5HDG\ UHGXFLQJ VXJDUV 1HOVRQ VXFURVH YDQ +DQGHO SKHQROLFV6ZDLQDQG+LOOLVDQGDPLQRDFLGV &RFNLQJDQG<HPPZHUHGHWHUPLQHGE\FRORULPHWU\ &DIIHLQHDQG&4$ZHUHGHWHUPLQHGE\UHYHUVHGSKDVHKLJK SHUIRUPDQFHOLTXLGFKURPDWRJUDSK\53+3/&0D]]DIHUD 6XFURVHZDVXVHGDVDVWDQGDUGIRUWKHVXFURVHDQG VROXEOH VXJDU GHWHUPLQDWLRQV JOXFRVH IRU UHGXFLQJ VXJDUV SKHQROIRUSKHQROLFFRPSRXQGVDQGOHXFLQHIRUDPLQRDFLGV 3XUHFDIIHLQHDQG&4$ZHUHXVHGDVVWDQGDUGVLQWKH+3/& GHWHUPLQDWLRQV
/LSLG WRWDO SURWHLQ DQG WRWDO QLWURJHQ FRQWHQWV ZHUH DOVR PHDVXUHG LQ WKH VDPSOHV /LSLGV ZHUH H[WUDFWHG IURP PJRIVHHGPHDOLQP/RIKH[DQHLQDVFUHZFDSSHG
WXEHDQGNHSWLQDZDWHUEDWKDWR&IRUWKUHHGD\V+H[DQH
ZDVUHFRYHUHGE\FHQWULIXJDWLRQDQGWKHOLSLGFRQFHQWUDWLRQ REWDLQHG E\ FRORULPHWU\ &KDEURO DQG &KDURQQDW 3URWHLQVZHUHH[WUDFWHGIURPPJRIVHHGPHDOLQPORI 11D2+IRUKDQGWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQZDVGHWHUPLQHG DFFRUGLQJWR%UDGIRUG7KHVWDQGDUGVIRUWKHOLSLGDQG SURWHLQGHWHUPLQDWLRQVZHUHUHVSHFWLYHO\OLQROHLFDFLGDQG ERYLQHVHUXPDOEXPLQ7RWDOQLWURJHQZDVGHWHUPLQHGRQ PJVDPSOHVE\WKH.MHOGDKOPHWKRG3HDUVRQ
7KH SRO\SKHQROR[LGDVH 332 DFWLYLW\ ZDV GHWHUPLQHG E\PHDVXULQJR[\JHQFRQVXPSWLRQZLWK&4$DVVXEVWUDWH 0D]]DIHUD DQG 5RELQVRQ 0D]]DIHUD HW DO 3URWHDVH DFWLYLW\ ZDV DVVD\HG ZLWK D]RFDVHLQ DV VXEVWUDWH 2OLYHLUDHWDOXVLQJWKHVDPHH[WUDFWDVIRU332
6HQVRULDO HYDOXDWLRQ 7KUHH SURIHVVLRQDO WDVWHUV FDUULHG
6HQVRULDOHYDOXDWLRQZDVDOVRGRQHXVLQJDQ³HOHFWURQLF WRQJXH´ 7KLV PHWKRG LV EDVHG RQ WKH FRQGXFWLYLW\ RI VL[ HOHFWURGHVPDGHRISRO\PHUVDQGOLSLGOLNHPDWHULDOVWKDWDUH FDSDEOHRISURPSWO\GHWHFWLQJYHU\ORZFRQFHQWUDWLRQVSSERI VDOLQHVZHHWELWWHUDQGDFLGLFVROXWLRQV5LXO-UHWDO 7KLV HOHFWURQLF WRQJXH KDV EHHQ XVHG WR FKDUDFWHUL]H FRIIHH EHYHUDJHVE\FRPSDULVRQVZLWKWKHFODVVL¿FDWLRQVSURYLGHGE\ FRIIHHWDVWHUV)HUUHLUDHWDO)RUWKLVDQDO\VLVJRI HDFKGU\SURFHVVHGFRIIHHZDVURDVWHG&IRUPLQ LQDVDPSOHURDVWHU7&3LQKDOHQVHDQGJURXQGLQDNQLIH PLOO PRGHO 70& 3LQKDOHQVH (VStULWR 6DQWR GR 3LQKDO 63 %UD]LO WR D JUDQXORPHWU\ RI PHVK7KH EHYHUDJH ZDVSUHSDUHGE\EUHZLQJJRIWKHJURXQGFRIIHHLQP/ RIERLOLQJGHLRQL]HGZDWHU
6WDWLVWLFDO $QDO\VLV7KH GDWD IURP WKH FKHPLFDO DQDO\VHV
ZHUHVXEMHFWHGWR$129$DQGZKHQWHVW)ZDVVLJQL¿FDQW
WKH PHDQV ZHUH FRPSDUHG XVLQJ 'XQFDQ¶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
5(68/76$1'',6&866,21
6HDVRQDO YDULDWLRQ RI PHDQ DLU WHPSHUDWXUH DQG UDLQIDOO
)LJXUHVKRZVWKHYDULDWLRQVLQPHDQDLUWHPSHUDWXUH7D DQGUDLQIDOORYHUWKHSHULRGIURP-XQHWR0D\LQ $GDPDQWLQD0RFRFDDQG&DPSLQDV'XULQJWKLVSHULRGWKH UHVSHFWLYH7D¶VDWWKHVHORFDOLWLHVZHUHDQG& ¿JXUH$,WLVQRWHZRUWK\WKDWWKH7DRI$GDPDQWLQDZDV RQ DYHUDJH DQG & KLJKHU WKDQ7D¶V RI 0RFRFD DQG &DPSLQDV UHVSHFWLYHO\ ,Q FRQWUDVW WKH UDLQIDOO ZDV ORZHU
DW$GDPDQWLQDPPFRPSDUHGWR0RFRFDPP DQG&DPSLQDVPP¿JXUH%
$FFRUGLQJWRWKHFOLPDWLFSKHQRORJLFDOPRGHOSURSRVHG
E\&DPDUJRDQG&DPDUJRIRU&DUDELFDLQ%UD]LO
WKH IUXLW VHWWLQJ SHULRG ZKHQ WKH VHHGV GHYHORS LQVLGH WKH IUXLWRFFXUVIURP-DQXDU\WR0DUFKDQGDGURXJKWGXULQJWKLV SHULRGFDQUHVXOWLQIUXLWGURS$VVKRZQLQ¿JXUH%IURP -DQXDU\WR0DUFKWKHUDLQIDOODW$GDPDQWLQDZDVORZHUWKDQ DWWKHRWKHUORFDOLWLHVEHLQJPRUHGLVFUHSDQWZKHQFRPSDUHG ZLWK0RFRFD)RUWKHWKUHHORFDOLWLHV0DUFKZDVDQDW\SLFDO PRQWKVLQFHLQWKH¿UVWGD\VRIWKHPRQWKWKHUDLQIDOOZDV VLJQL¿FDQWO\ORZHUWKDQLQWKHRWKHUSHULRGV7KHUDLQIDOOGDWD VKRXOG EH FRQVLGHUHG WRJHWKHU ZLWK WKH7D GDWD7KHUHIRUH LW LV HYLGHQW WKDW GXULQJ IUXLW VHW QRW RQO\ ZDV WKH ZDWHU DYDLODELOLW\ORZHULQ$GDPDQWLQDEXWWKH7DZDVKLJKHUWKDQ 0RFRFDDQG&DPSLQDV6HYHUDOUHSRUWVKDYHVXJJHVWHGWKDW
FRIIHHJURZWKLVDIIHFWHGE\WHPSHUDWXUHVKLJKHUWKDQR&
&DQQHOO%DVHGRQWKHGDWDDYDLODEOHIRUFRIIHHTXDOLW\ DQG %UD]LOLDQ FOLPDWLF FRQGLWLRQV &DPDUJR HW DO VXJJHVWHG WKDW UHJLRQV ZLWK D UHODWLYHO\ KLJK WHPSHUDWXUH WHQGWRSURGXFHORZTXDOLW\FRIIHH
)LJXUH9DULDWLRQVLQWKHDLUWHPSHUDWXUH$DQGUDLQIDOO % RYHU WKH SHULRG IURP -XQH WR 0D\ LQ $GDPDQWLQD0RFRFDDQG&DPSLQDV
$LUWHPSHUDWXUH&
&KHPLFDOFRPSRVLWLRQDQGEHYHUDJHTXDOLW\,UULJDWLRQKDG QRHIIHFWRQWKHFKHPLFDOFRPSRVLWLRQRIFRIIHHEHDQVIURP $GDPDQWLQD 0RFRFD DQG &DPSLQDV WDEOH :LWK WKH H[FHSWLRQ RI SURWHDVH DFWLYLW\ IRU ZKLFK WKH QRQLUULJDWHG 1, FRQWUROV KDG ORZHU YDOXHV QRQH RI WKH RWKHU DQDO\VHV VKRZHGDVLPLODUWHQGHQF\ZLWKUHVSHFWWRLUULJDWLRQ
,Q DJUHHPHQW ZLWK SUHYLRXV DQDO\VHV &OLIIRUG 0D]]DIHUD5RJHUVHWDOEVXFURVHUHSUHVHQWHG RQ DYHUDJH RI WKH WRWDO VROXEOH VXJDUV ([FHSW IRU &DPSLQDV U WKHUH ZDV DQ LQYHUVH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ WKH VXFURVH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ DQG WKDW RI UHGXFLQJ VXJDUVLQ$GDPDQWLQDU DQG0RFRFDU VXFK WKDW ORZHU FRQFHQWUDWLRQV RI VXFURVH ZHUH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWKKLJKHUFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIUHGXFLQJVXJDUV7KLV¿QGLQJ LV FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKH LQFUHDVH LQ VXFURVH DQG GHFUHDVH LQ UHGXFLQJ VXJDUV GXULQJ WKH ¿QDO VWDJHV RI VHHG JURZWK LQ
FRIIHHIUXLWV5RJHUVHWDOE
3KHQROLF FRPSRXQGV DFFRXQWHG IRU WR RI WKH VHHGFRPSRVLWLRQ&4$WKHPDLQFKORURJHQLFDFLGLVRPHU IRXQGLQFRIIHHVHHGVGLGQRWYDU\VLJQL¿FDQWO\DPRQJWKH WUHDWPHQWV &KORURJHQLF DFLG PD\ FRQWULEXWH WR WKH ¿QDO DFLGLW\RIWKHEHYHUDJHZLWKVRPHHIIHFWRQÀDYRUDQGDURPD 7UXJRHWDO&OLIIRUG0RUHLUDHWDO
&DIIHLQHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVUDQJHGIURPPJJDQG
PJJ DQG WKHUH ZHUH IHZ GLIIHUHQFHV DPRQJ WUHDWPHQWV RU ORFDOLWLHV DOWKRXJK FRIIHH VHHGV IURP &DPSLQDV WHQGHG WR KDYHPRUHFDIIHLQH6LPLODUO\WKHOLSLGFRQWHQWGLGQRWYDU\ VLJQL¿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
$OWKRXJK WKH SDWWHUQ RI LUULJDWLRQ KDG QR HIIHFW RQ WKH FKHPLFDO FRPSRVLWLRQ RI FRIIHHV IURP WKH VDPH ORFDOLW\ PDUNHGGLIIHUHQFHVZHUHREVHUYHGDPRQJWKHWKUHHORFDOLWLHV VXJJHVWLQJ DQ HIIHFW RI WKH DUHD LQ ZKLFK WKH SODQWV ZHUH JURZQ7KHVHGLIIHUHQFHVZHUHPRVWHYLGHQWIRUQLWURJHQRXV FRPSRXQGV 3&$ VKRZHG WKDW FRIIHH IURP $GDPDQWLQD GLIIHUHG VLJQL¿FDQWO\ IURP WKDW SURGXFHG LQ 0RFRFD DQG
&DPSLQDV¿JXUHV$DQG% 7DEOH
7DEOH:HLJKWRIVHHGVPHDQVHHGVL]HFXSTXDOLW\DQGJOREDOTXDOLW\RIWKHEHYHUDJHSUHSDUHGIURPFRIIHHFXOWLYDWHG ZLWKRXWLUULJDWLRQ1,FRQWLQXRXVLUULJDWLRQ&,LUULJDWLRQVXVSHQGHGIRUGD\V,DQGGD\V,LQ$GDPDQWLQD $'0RFRFD0&DQG&DPSLQDV&3
&XSTXDOLW\ 7UHDWPHQWV
& & &
1,$' +DUG +DUG*UHHQ +DUG
,&$' +DUGSOXV +DUG*UHHQ -XVWVRIW
,$' +DUG +DUG*UHHQ +DUG
,$' -XVWVRIW +DUG*UHHQ -XVWVRIW
1,0& -XVWVRIW +DUG -XVWVRIW
,&0& +DUG)HUPHQWHG +DUG +DUG
,0& +DUG +DUG +DUG
,0& +DUG +DUG +DUG
1,&3 +DUG +DUG*UHHQ +DUG
,&&3 +DUG*UHHQ +DUG*UHHQ +DUG
,&3 +DUG +DUG*UHHQ +DUG
,&3 +DUGSOXV +DUG +DUG
&&DQG& FXSWDVWHUV
7KH ORDGLQJ GLDJUDPV SURYLGHG E\ 3&$ ¿JXUHV & DQG ' VKRZHG WKDW SURWHLQV DPLQR DFLGV WRWDO QLWURJHQ DQGSURWHDVHDQG332DFWLYLWLHVGLIIHUHGIRUORFDOLWLHVDQGZHUH DOZD\VKLJKHULQ$GDPDQWLQDZHUHWKH\DFFRXQWHGIRU RI WKH YDULDWLRQ $PLQR DFLGV DQG SHSWLGHV DUH LPSRUWDQW FRPSRQHQWVRIFRIIHHDURPDPDLQO\EHFDXVHRIWKH0DLOODUG UHDFWLRQWKDWRFFXUVEHWZHHQDPLQRDFLGVDQGFDUERK\GUDWHV SDUWLFXODUO\ VXFURVH +RZHYHU WKH PHFKDQLVPV WKDW GH¿QH WKH SURSRUWLRQ RI IUHH DPLQR DFLGV DQG SHSWLGHV UHPDLQ XQNQRZQ0RQWDYRQHWDOD
3URWHRO\WLF DFWLYLW\ ZDV GHWHFWHG LQ FRIIHH EHDQV DV
SUHYLRXVO\ UHSRUWHG E\ /XGZLJ HW DO ZLWK JUHDWHU
DFWLYLW\ LQ EHDQV IURP $GDPDQWLQD 3ODQW SURWHDVHV DUH FODVVL¿HG DV HQGRSHSWLGDVHV DPLQRSHSWLGDVHV DQG FDUER[\SHSWLGDVHV %DUUHW DOO RI ZKLFK GHJUDGH SURWHLQVLQWRVPDOOHUSHSWLGHVDQGUHOHDVHDPLQRDFLGV6LQFH WKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIWRWDOVROXEOHVXJDUVDPLQRDFLGVDQG SURWHDVHV ZHUH JUHDWHU LQ $GDPDQWLQD GLIIHUHQFHV ZHUH H[SHFWHGLQWKHTXDOLW\RIWKHEHYHUDJHDPRQJFRIIHHVIURP WKHWKUHHORFDOLWLHV
$QRWKHU HQ]\PH WKDW KDV EHHQ UHODWHG WR WKH TXDOLW\ RI FRIIHH LV 332$ KLJK FRQWHQW RI WKLV HQ]\PH KDV EHHQ DVVRFLDWHGZLWKJRRGTXDOLW\FRIIHH$PRULPDQG$PRULP $PRULPDQG0HOR332ZDVKLJKHVWLQFRIIHH IURP $GDPDQWLQD DOWKRXJK WKH DFWLYLWLHV IRU WKH WKUHH ORFDOLWLHV ZHUH ORZHU WKDQ YDOXHV UHSRUWHG LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH
IRU FRIIHH XVLQJ 2 FRQVXPSWLRQ DV WKH DFWLYLW\ SDUDPHWHU
0D]]DIHUD0D]]DIHUDDQG5RELQVRQ+RZHYHU WKHVHDXWKRUVDQDO\]HGFRIIHHEHDQVGXULQJWKHGHYHORSPHQW RIWKHIUXLWDQGQRWDIWHUSURFHVVLQJDQGVWRUDJH
7KH FRUUHODWLRQ FRHI¿FLHQW IRU WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ SKHQROFRQWHQWDQG332DFWLYLW\ZDVQHJDWLYHIRUFRIIHHIURP $GDPDQWLQD U DQG 0RFRFD U EXW QRW IURP &DPSLQDV U :KHQ FDOFXODWHG IRU &4$ WKH FRHI¿FLHQWV ZHUH DQG IRU$GDPDQWLQD 0RFRFD DQG &DPSLQDV UHVSHFWLYHO\$FFRUGLQJ WR$PRULP DQG$PRULPWKHORZ332DFWLYLW\LQSRRUTXDOLW\EHDQV UHVXOWVIURPH[KDXVWLRQRIWKHVXEVWUDWHVXSSO\E\WKHHQ]\PH DQG DOVR UHÀHFWV LQDFWLYDWLRQ RI WKH HQ]\PH E\ TXLQRQHV IRUPHG GXULQJ WKH R[LGDWLRQ RI SKHQROV:LWK WKH H[FHSWLRQ RIWKHQRQLUULJDWHGSODQWVWKHRWKHUWUHDWPHQWVLQ$GDPDQWLQD KDGORZHUSKHQROFRQWHQWWKDQDWWKHRWKHUWZRORFDOLWLHV
7KHPHDQZHLJKWRIEHDQVDQGWKHPHDQVHHGVL]HIRU FRIIHHVIURP0RFRFD&DPSLQDVDQG$GDPDQWLQDDUHVKRZQ LQ WDEOH &RIIHHV IURP $GDPDQWLQD ZHUH OLJKWHU EXW QRW PXFKVPDOOHUWKDQWKRVHIURP0RFRFDDQG&DPSLQDVZKLFK VXJJHVWWKDWWKH\KDGDORZHUVSHFL¿FPDVVWKDQWKRVHIURP WKHRWKHUVLWHV1RQHRIWKHFRPSRXQGVDQDO\]HGLQWKHVHHGV ZHUH SUHVHQW LQ VLJQL¿FDQWO\ JUHDWHU DPRXQWV LQ WKH FRIIHH EHDQV IURP $GDPDQWLQD WDEOH 7KLV ODFN RI GLIIHUHQFH PD\ EH UHODWHG WR WKH FHOO VL]H DQGRU WR WKH SUHVHQFH RI D WKLQQHUFHOOZDOO
*OREDO TXDOLW\ :HLJKWRI
VHHGVJ
7KUHHWDVWHUVIURPWKHUHJLRQVRI$GDPDQWLQD&0RFR FD&DQG6mR3DXOR&WDEOHDQDO\]HGWKHFRIIHHVIRU FXSTXDOLW\7KH¿UVWWZRWDVWHUVZHUHIURPFRIIHHFRRSHUDWLYHV DQGWKHWKLUGZDVIURPDWUDGLQJRI¿FHVSHFLDOL]LQJLQWKHFODV VL¿FDWLRQDQGH[SRUWDWLRQRIFRIIHH7KHVHQVRULDODQDO\VLVZDV XQDEOH WR GLIIHUHQWLDWH WKH FRIIHHV +RZHYHU JOREDO TXDOLW\ ZKLFKLQFOXGHVRWKHUDWWULEXWHVWHQGHGWRFODVVLI\WKHFRIIHH IURP0RFRFDDVEHWWHUWKDQWKDWIURPWZRRWKHUORFDOLWLHVEXW GLGQRWKDYHDVWURQJLQÀXHQFHLQGLVWLQJXLVKLQJWKHFRIIHHV ZKHQLQFOXGHGLQWKH3&$DQDO\VLV¿JXUH6RPHVWDWLVWLFDO VWXGLHVKDYHDUJXHGDJDLQVWWKHDELOLW\RIWDVWHUVWRFODVVLI\FRI IHHFXSTXDOLW\&DUYDOKRHWDO,QGHHGWDVWHUVWUDLQHG ZLWKDQDUURZYDULHW\RIFRIIHHTXDOLW\PD\QRWGHYHORSWKH DELOLW\WRHYDOXDWHFRIIHHIURPRWKHUSODFHV,QDGGLWLRQWDVWHUV PD\ORVHWKHLUFDSDFLW\WRGLVWLQJXLVKFRIIHHVLIWKH\IUHTXHQWO\ HYDOXDWHFRIIHHVIURPWKHVDPHSODFH7KLVFRXOGKDYHEHHQWKH FDVHRIWDVWHUV&DQG&
,Q YLHZ RI WKHVH GLI¿FXOWLHV ZH XVHG DQ ³HOHFWURQLF WRQJXH´DVDPRUHDFFXUDWHPHWKRGIRUFRPSDULQJWKHTXDOLW\ RI WKHVH FRIIHHV 7KH LQWURGXFWLRQ RI WKLV WHFKQLTXH IRU WHVWLQJFRIIHHLVYHU\UHFHQWDQG)HUUHLUDHWDOKDYH VKRZQWKDWLWLVYHU\VHQVLWLYHLQLGHQWLI\LQJGLIIHUHQWEOHQGV DWYHU\ORZFRQFHQWUDWLRQVSDUWVSHUELOOLRQ$OWKRXJKWKH XVHIXOQHVVRIWKLVPHWKRGIRUDVVHVVLQJFRIIHHTXDOLW\LVVWLOO EHLQJ HYDOXDWHG DQG UHTXLUHV DSSURSULDWH VWDQGDUGL]DWLRQ ZLWK FRIIHHV FODVVL¿HG E\ GLIIHUHQW WDVWHUV LW QHYHUWKHOHVV DOORZHGXVWRGLVWLQJXLVKWKHFRIIHHVIURPWKHWKUHHUHJLRQV DQG JURXSHG WKH FRIIHH VDPSOHV IURP$GDPDQWLQDWRJHWKHU ¿JXUH7KHGDWDIURPWKHHOHFWURQLFWRQJXHDOVRUHYHDOHG WKDWWKHUHZHUHGLIIHUHQFHVRQO\DPRQJFRIIHHVRIFXOWLYDWLRQ ZKLFKVXJJHVWHGDQHQYLURQPHQWDOHIIHFW
6LQFH WKH HOHFWURQLF WRQJXH LQGLFDWHG WKDW LUULJDWLRQ GLGQRWVLJQL¿FDQWO\DIIHFWWKHFKHPLFDOFRPSRVLWLRQRIWKH FRIIHHEHDQVDQGFXSTXDOLW\¿JXUHZHVXJJHVWWKDWWKH
)LJXUH3ULQFLSDOFRPSRQHQWDQDO\VHVXVLQJGDWDIRUFKHPLFDOFRPSRVLWLRQVHHGZHLJKWPHDQVHHGVL]HDQGJOREDOTXDOLW\ RIFRIIHHVHHGV7KHVFRUHGLDJUDPV$DQG%VKRZ¿YHUHSOLFDWHVIRUWKHWUHDWPHQWVZLWKRXWLUULJDWLRQ1,RSHQV\PEROV FRQWLQXRXVLUULJDWLRQ&,GRWWHGV\PEROVDQGLUULJDWLRQVXVSHQGHGIRUGD\V,JUH\V\PEROVDQGGD\V,EODFN
V\PEROVLQ$GDPDQWLQD &DPSLQDVUDQG0RFRFD 7KHORDGLQJGLDJUDPV&DQG'VKRZWKHGDWDIRUFKHPLFDO
GLIIHUHQFHVDPRQJWKHORFDOLWLHVZHUHDFRQVHTXHQFHRIWKH DLUWHPSHUDWXUHLQHDFKUHJLRQRIFXOWLYDWLRQ$OWKRXJKVRLO FRPSRVLWLRQ DQG DWWDFNV E\ LQVHFW SHVWV FRXOG KDYH EHHQ LPSRUWDQW IDFWRUV DSSURSULDWH IHUWLOL]DWLRQ DQG SHVW FRQWURO ZHUHSUDFWLFHGLQWKHWKUHHDUHDVGXULQJWKHVWXG\
&RIIHHGRHVQRWWROHUDWHDZLGHUDQJHRIWHPSHUDWXUHV 0HDQWHPSHUDWXUHVEHORZ&DQGDERYH&DUHQRWVXLW DEOHDQGWKHRSWLPXPWHPSHUDWXUHIRUFRIIHHJURZWKUDQJHV IURP & WR & $OqJUH &DPDUJR HW DO 'XULQJWKHSUHVHQWZRUNWKHPHDQDQQXDOWHPSHU DWXUHLQ$GDPDQWLQDZDV&DERXW&ZDUPHUWKDQ WKHXSSHUOLPLWRI&IRUFRIIHH,Q0RFRFDDQG&DPSLQDV WKHWHPSHUDWXUHVZHUH&DQG&UHVSHFWLYHO\
,Q WKHLU DVVHVVPHQW RI WKH DSSURSULDWH FOLPDWH IRU SURGXFLQJ D JRRG TXDOLW\ EHYHUDJH LQ WKH PRVW LPSRUWDQW FRIIHHJURZLQJ UHJLRQV RI %UD]LO &DPDUJR HW DO GH¿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
)LJXUH3ULQFLSDOFRPSRQHQWDQDO\VLVRIWKHGDWDREWDLQHG ZLWK WKH HOHFWURQLF WRQJXH XVHG WR HYDOXDWH FRIIHH IURP WKH WUHDWPHQWV ZLWKRXW LUULJDWLRQ 1, RSHQ V\PEROV FRQWLQXRXVLUULJDWLRQ&,GRWWHGV\PEROVDQGLUULJDWLRQ VXVSHQGHGIRUGD\V,JUH\V\PEROVDQGGD\V
,EODFNV\PEROVLQ$GDPDQWLQD&DPSLQDV
DQG0RFRFD{7KHWUDFHVVKRZJURXSVIRUPHG
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¿UPWKHGDWD REWDLQHGKHUHIURPWKH¿HOG
$FNQRZOHGJPHQW7KLVZRUNZDVVXSSRUWHGE\&RQVyUFLR %UDVLOHLURGH3HVTXLVDH'HVHQYROYLPHQWRGR&DIp±(PEUDSD &%3 '&DIp(PEUDSD($6LOYD30D]]DIHUDDQG2 %UXQLQLDUHVXSSRUWHGE\UHVHDUFKIHOORZVKLSVIURP&RQVHOKR 1DFLRQDO GH 'HVHQYROYLPHQWR &LHQWt¿FR H 7HFQROyJLFR &13T
5()(5(1&(6
$OqJUH&&OLPDWVHWFDIpLHUVG¶$UDELH$JURQ7URS
$PRULP+9$PRULP9/&RIIHHHQ]\PHVDQGFRIIHH TXDOLW\,Q2U\5/6W$QJHOR$-HGV(Q]\PHVLQ)RRG DQG%HYHUDJHSURFHVVLQJV$&66\PSRVLXPVHULHVYRO SS$PHULFDQ&KHPLFDO6RFLHW\/RQGRQ
$PRULP+90HOR06LJQL¿FDQFHRIHQ]\PHVLQQRQ DOFRKROLFFRIIHHEHYHUDJH,Q)R[3)HG)RRG(Q]\PRO RJ\SS(OVHYLHU$SSOLHG6FLHQFH/RQGRQ %DUUHWW$-7KHFODVVHVRISURWHRO\WLFHQ]\PHV,Q'DO
OLQJ0-HG3ODQW3URWHRO\WLF(Q]\PHVYROSS &5&3UHVV,QF%RFD5DWRQ
%UDGIRUG 01 $ UDSLG DQG VHQVLWLYH PHWKRG IRU WKH TXDQWL¿FDWLRQRIPLFURJUDPTXDQWLWLHVRISURWHLQXWLOL]LQJ WKHSULQFLSOHRISURWHLQG\HELQGLQJ$QDO%LRFKHP
&DPDUJR$36DQWLQDWR5&RUWH]-*$SWLGmRFOLPiWL FDSDUDTXDOLGDGHGDEHELGDQDVSULQFLSDLVUHJL}HVFDIHHL UDVGH$UiELFDQR%UDVLO,Q$QDLVGR&RQJUHVVR%UD VLOHLURGH3HVTXLVDV&DIHHLUDV$UD[i0LQDV*HUDLV%UDV LOS
&DPDUJR$3&DPDUJR0%3'H¿QLomRHHVTXHPDWL ]DomRGDVIDVHVIHQROyJLFDVGRFDIHHLUR$UiELFDQDVFRQ GLo}HVGR%UDVLO%UDJDQWLD
&DUU0.97KHZDWHUUHODWLRQVDQGLUULJDWLRQUHTXLUH PHQWVRIFRIIHH([SO$JULF
&DUYDOKR$ 3ULQFLSOHV DQG SUDFWLFH RI FRIIHH SODQW
EUHHGLQJIRUSURGXFWLYLW\DQGTXDOLW\IDFWRUV&RIIHDDU
DELFD ,Q &ODUNH 5- 0DFUDH 5 HGV &RIIHH YRO ,9
&DUYDOKR9'&KDJDV6-5&KDOIRQ60%RWUHO1-XVWH-U (6*5HODomRHQWUHDFRPSRVLomRItVLFRTXtPLFDH TXtPLFDGRJUmREHQH¿FLDGRHTXDOLGDGHGHEHELGDGRFDIp 3HVT$JURS%UDV
&KDEURO(&KDURQQDW58QHQRXYHOOHUHDFWLRQSRXU O¶pWXGH GHV OLSLGV /¶HOHLGHPLH 3UHVV 0HG
&DQQHOO0*53K\VLRORJ\RIWKHFRIIHHFURS,Q&OLI
IRUG01:LOVRQ.&HGV&RIIHH%RWDQ\%LRFKHPLVWU\
DQG3URGXFWLRQRI%HDQVDQG%HYHUDJHSS$9,
3XEOLVKLQJ&RPSDQ\,QF:HVWSRUW&1
&ODUNH5-*UHHQFRIIHHSURFHVVLQJ,Q&OLIIRUG01
:LOVRQ.&HGV&RIIHH%RWDQ\%LRFKHPLVWU\DQG3UR
GXFWLRQRI%HDQVDQG%HYHUDJHSS$9,3XEOLVK
LQJ&RPSDQ\,QF:HVWSRUW&1
&OLIIRUG01&KHPLFDODQGSK\VLFDODVSHFWVRIJUHHQ FRIIHHDQGFRIIHHSURGXFWV,Q&OLIIRUG01:LOVRQ.&
HGV&RIIHH %RWDQ\ %LRFKHPLVWU\ DQG 3URGXFWLRQ RI
%HDQV DQG %HYHUDJHSS$9, 3XEOLVKLQJ &RP
SDQ\,QF:HVWSRUW&1
&OLIIRUG017KHQDWXUHRIFKORURJHQLFDFLGV$UHWKH\ DGYDQWDJHRXVFRPSRXQGVLQFRIIHH",Q3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH
WK,QWHUQDWLRQDO6FLHQWL¿F&ROORTXLXPRQ&RIIHH.HQ\D
$6,&3DULVSS
&RFNLQJ(&<HPP(:(VWLPDWLRQRIDPLQRDFLGVE\ QLQK\GULQ%LRFKHP-[LL[LLL
'HFD]\)$YHOLQR-*X\RW%3HUULRW-,3LQHGD&&LODV& 4XDOLW\RIGLIIHUHQW+RQGXUDQFRIIHHVLQUHODWLRQWR VHYHUDOHQYLURQPHQWV-)RRG6FL )D]XROL/&*DOOR3%&HUYHOOLQL*-%DUURV,9DQ5DLM%
&DIp ,Q )DO -, &DPDUJR 0%3 3L]]LQDWR 0$ %HWWL-$0HOR$0'H0DULD,&)XUODQL$0&HGV,Q VWUXo}HV$JUtFRODVSDUDDV3ULQFLSDLV&XOWXUDV±%ROHWLP ,QVWLWXWR$JURQ{PLFRGH&DPSLQDV&DPSLQDV6mR 3DXOR%UDVLO
)HUUHLUD05LXO-U$:RKQUDWK.)RQVHFD)-2OLYHLUD-U 210DWWRVR/+&+LJKSHUIRUPDQFHWDVWHVHQVRU PDGHIURP/DQJPXLU%ORGJHWW¿OPVRIFRQGXFWLQJ3RO\
PHUVDQG5XWKHQLXPFRPSOH[$QDO&KHP
)ROVWDU3/LSLGV,Q&ODUNH5-0DFUDH5HGV&RI IHH&KHPLVWU\YRO,,SS(OVHYLHU$SSOLHG6FL HQFH/RQGRQ
*X\RW%*XHXOH'0DQH]-&3HUULRW--*LURQ-9LODLQ-,QÀXHQFHGHO¶DOWLWXGHHWGHO¶RPEUDJHGHVFDIpV $UDELFD3ODQWDW5HFK'pY
.UXJ&$2FiOFXORGDSHQHLUDPpGLDQDVHOHomRGRFD IHHLUR5HY,QVW&DIp
/XGZLJ(/LSNH85DF]HN8-DJHU$,QYHVWLJDWLRQV RISHSWLGHVDQGSURWHDVHVLQJUHHQFRIIHHEHDQV(XU)RRG 5HV7HFKQRO
0D]]DIHUD30DWpGULQNLQJFDIIHLQHDQGSKHQROLFDFLG LQWDNH)RRG&KHP
0D]]DIHUD3&KHPLFDOFRPSRVLWLRQRIGHIHFWLYHFRI IHHEHDQV)RRG&KHP
0D]]DIHUD35RELQVRQ63&KDUDFWHUL]DWLRQRISRO\SKH QROR[LGDVHLQFRIIHH3K\WRFKHP\VWU\ 0D]]DIHUD3*RQoDOYHV.96KLPL]X00([WUDomRH
GRVDJHPGDDWLYLGDGHGDSROLIHQROR[LGDVHGRFDIp6FLHQ $JULF
0F5HDG\50*XJJOR]-6LOYHLUD92ZHQV+6'H WHUPLQDWLRQRIVWDUFKDQGDP\ORVHLQYHJHWDEOHVDSSOLFD WLRQVWRSHDV$QDO&KHP
0RUHLUD5)$7UXJR/&'H0DULD&$%0DWRV$*%6DQ WRV60/HLWH-0&'LVFULPLQDWLRQRI%UD]LOLDQDU DELFDJUHHQFRIIHHVDPSOHVE\FKORURJHQLFDFLGFRPSRVL
WLRQ$UFK/DWLQ1XWU
0RQWDYRQ3'XUX](5XPR*3UDW]*D(YROXWLRQ RIJUHHQFRIIHHSURWHLQSUR¿OHZLWKPDWXUDWLRQDQGUHOD
WLRQVKLSWRFRIIHHFXSTXDOLW\-$JULF)RRG&KHP
0RQWDYRQ30DXURQ$)'XUX](E&KDQJHVLQJUHHQ FRIIHHSURWHLQSUR¿OHVGXULQJURDVWLQJ-$JULF)RRG&KHP
0RUJDQR0$4XHLUR]6&1)HUUHLUD00&$SSOLFD WLRQRIH[SORUDWRU\DQDO\VLVWRWKHGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQRIYHJH
WDEOHV%UD]-)RRG7HFKQRO
1HOVRQ1$SKRWRPHWULFDGDSWDWLRQRIWKH6RPRJ\
PHWKRGIRUWKHGHWHUPLQDWLRQRIJOXFRVH-%LRO&KHP
1MRURJH-0$JURQRPLFDQGSURFHVVLQJIDFWRUVDIIHFW LQJFRIIHHTXDOLW\2XW$JULF
2OLYHLUD$63HUHLUD5$/LPD/00RUDLV$+$0HOR)5 )UDQFR2/%ORFK-U&*URVVLGH6i0)6DOHV03 $FWLYLW\WRZDUGEUXFKLGSHVWRIDNXQLW]W\SHLQKLELWRUIURP
VHHGVRIWKHDOJDUREDWUHH3URVSLVMXOLÀRUD'&3HVWLF
%LRFKHP3K\VLRO
3HDUVRQ ' 7KH FKHPLFDODQDO\VLV RI IRRGV WK HGQ
&KXFKLOO/LYLQJVWRQH/RQGRQ
3LURXHWWH0XOWLYDULDWH'DWD$QDO\VLVIRU,%03&6\V
WHPVYHUVLRQ,QIRPHWUL[6HDWOH:$86$
3UDGR+6RORVGR%UDVLOJrQHVHPRUIRORJLDFODVVL
¿FDomROHYDQWDPHQWRHPDQHMRWKHGQ3LUDFLFDED63
%UDVLO,6%1;
5LXO-U$6ROR$0*0HOOR69%RQH67D\ORU'00DW WRVR/+&$QHOHFWURQLFWRQJXHXVLQJSRO\S\UUROH DQGSRO\DQLOLQH6\QWK0HWDOV
5RJHUV:-%p]DUG*'HVKD\HV$0H\HU,3HWLDUG90DUUDF FLQL3D%LRFKHPLFDODQGPROHFXODUFKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ
DQGH[SUHVVLRQRIWKH6W\SHVWRUDJHSURWHLQIURP&RIIHD
DUDELFDHQGRVSHUP3ODQW3K\VLRO%LRFKHP
5RJHUV:-0LFKDX[-%DVWLQ0%XFKHOL3E&KDQJHV WRWKHFRQWHQWRIVXJDUVXJDUDOFRKROVP\RLQRVLWROFDU ER[\OLFDFLGDQGLQRUJDQLFDQLRQVLQGHYHORSLQJJUDLQVIURP
GLIIHUHQWYDULHWLHVRI5REXVWD&RIIHDFDQHSKRUDDQG$UD
ELFD&DUDELFDFRIIHHV3ODQW6FL
6LOYD($,QÀXrQFLDGHGLVWLQWDVFRQGLo}HVHGDIRFOLPiWL FDVHGRPDQHMRGHLUULJDomRQRÀRUHVFLPHQWRSURGXomRH
TXDOLGDGHGHEHELGDGRFDIp&RIIHDDUDELFD/&DPSLQDV
8QLYHUVLGDGH(VWDGXDOGH&DPSLQDV3K'WKHVLV
6FKRO] 0%- 3UHWH &(& &UXGM ( 0DJUL7% &RP
SRVLomRTXtPLFDGHYDULHGDGHVGHFDIp&RIIHDDUDELFD
,Q,6LPSyVLRGH3HVTXLVDGRV&DIpVGR%UDVLO3RoRVGH &DOGDV0*%UDVLOSS
6HOPDU'%\WRI*.QRSS6(1HZDVSHFWVRIFRI IHH SURFHVVLQJ 7KH UHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ VHHG JHUPLQDWLRQ
DQGFRIIHHTXDOLW\,Q3URFHHGLQJVRIWKHWK,QWHUQDWLRQ
DO6FLHQWL¿F&ROORTXLXPRQFRIIHH+HOVLQNL$6,&3DU LV&'5RP
6KLPL]X000D]]DIHUD3&RPSRVLWLRQDOFKDQJHVRI SURWHLQVDQGDPLQRDFLGVLQJHUPLQDWLQJFRIIHHVHHGV%UD]
$UFK%LRO7HFKQRO
6RLO6XUYH\6WDII6RLOWD[RQRP\DEDVLFV\VWHPRI VRLOFODVVL¿FDWLRQIRUPDNLQJDQGLQWHUSUHWLQJVRLOVXUYH\V
QGHGQ86'$1DWXUDO5HVRXUFHV&RQVHUYDWLRQ6HUYLFH
$JULFXOWXUDO+DQGERRN86*RYHUQPHQW3ULQWLQJ2I ¿FH:DVKLQJWRQ'&
6ZDLQ7+LOOLV:(7KHSKHQROLFFRQVWLWXHQWVRI3UX
QXVGRPHVWLFD,7KHTXDQWLWDWLYHDQDO\VLVRISKHQROLFFRQ
VWLWXHQWV-6FL)RRG$JULF
7UXJR/&0DFUDH5$6WXG\RIWKHHIIHFWRIURDVWLQJ RQWKHFKORURJHQLFDFLGFRPSRVLWLRQRIFRIIHHXVLQJ+3/& )RRG&KHP
YDQ+DQGHO('LUHFWPLFURGHWHUPLQDWLRQRIVXFURVH $QDO%LRFKHP