Deforestation control in the Brazilian Amazon: A conservation struggle being lost as agreements and regulations are subverted and bypassed

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SupportedbyBotic´arioGroupFoundationforNatureProtection

www.perspectecolconserv.com

Policy

Forums

Deforestation

control

in

the

Brazilian

Amazon:

A

conservation

struggle

being

lost

as

agreements

and

regulations

are

subverted

and

bypassed

William

D.

Carvalho

a,b,c,∗

,

Karen

Mustin

c,d

,

Renato

R.

Hilário

a,b

,

Ivan

M.

Vasconcelos

e

,

Vivianne

Eilers

c,f

,

Philip

M.

Fearnside

g

aLaboratóriodeEcologia,DepartamentodeMeioAmbienteeDesenvolvimento,UniversidadeFederaldoAmapá(UNIFAP),Rod.JuscelinoKubitscheck,s/n,Macapá,AP,68903-419, Brazil

bProgramadePós-Graduac¸ãoemBiodiversidadeTropical,UniversidadeFederaldoAmapá(UNIFAP),Rod.JuscelinoKubitscheck,s/n,Macapá,AP,68903-419,Brazil cInstituteofBiologicalandEnvironmentalSciences,UniversityofAberdeen,ZoologyBuilding,TillydroneAvenue,Aberdeen,AB242TE,UK

dProgramadePós-Graduc¸ãoemBiologiaAnimalDepartamentodeEcologia,ZoologiaeGenética,InstitutodeBiologiaUniversidadeFederaldePelotas,96010-900,Pelotas,RS,Brazil eInstitutoChicoMendesdeConservac¸ãodaBiodiversidade(ICMBio),RuaLeopoldoMachado,1126,Macapá,AP,68900-067,Brazil

fInstitutodoMeioAmbienteedosRecursosNaturaisRenováveis(IBAMA),RuaHamiltonSilva,1570,Macapá,AP,68906-440,Brazil gNationalInstituteforResearchinAmazonia(INPA),Av.AndréAraújo,2936,Manaus,AM,69067-375,Brazil

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Articlehistory:

Received18September2018 Accepted14June2019 Availableonline29June2019 Keywords: Amazoniansavannahs Cerrado Timber SoyMoratorium Ecosystemservices Beefagreement

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DespiteeffortstoreducedeforestationintheBrazilianAmazon,therehasbeenanup-turninclearingrates since2012.Theseincreasesareinpartduetofailuresindeforestationcontrol.Soybeanplanters,cattle ranchers,andtimbermerchantsfindwaystocircumventagreementsandlegislation.Hereweexplain someofthekeyproblemswiththeimplementationoftheprincipalagreementsandBrazilianlawsthat shouldbekeepingclearingratesundercontrol.TocombatincreasedclearingintheAmazon,wesuggest anurgentneedtostrengthenBrazilianenvironmentalagencies,improvetechnologiesusedtomonitor theeffectivenessofclearing-reductionprogrammes,betterintegrateagrarianandenvironmentalpolicies andintegrateenvironmentalenforcementacrossfederal,stateandmunicipalgovernments,aswellas improvetransparencyalongglobalsupplychainsandraiseawarenessamongconsumerstoputmarket pressureonproducerstoavoidnewdeforestation.

©2019Associac¸˜aoBrasileiradeCiˆenciaEcol ´ogicaeConservac¸˜ao.PublishedbyElsevierEditoraLtda. ThisisanopenaccessarticleundertheCCBY-NC-NDlicense( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Brazilhasbeenconsideredtobeaglobalexampleintermsof policiestoreduceCO2emissions(Nepstadetal.,2014),being

recog-nizedforitsprogrammes,agreementsandpublicpoliciestosolidly andconsistentlyreducedeforestation,particularlyinthetropical forestsofthe Amazonregion (Gibbs et al.,2015, 2016;Rausch andGibbs,2016;Barretoet al.,2017).Indeed,inordertoavoid increaseddegradationoftheAmazon,non-governmental organi-zations(NGOs),civilsociety,privateinitiativesandtheBrazilian governmenthavecometogethertocreateagreementsthatseek toreduce‘clearing’,thatis,deforestationandtheremovalofother typesofnativevegetation.Theseagreementsincludethe“Terms

∗ Correspondingauthorat:LaboratóriodeEcologia,DepartamentodeMeio Ambi-enteeDesenvolvimento,UniversidadeFederaldoAmapá(UNIFAP),Rod.Juscelino Kubitscheck,s/n,Macapá,AP,68903-419,Brazil.

E-mailaddress:wilruoca@hotmail.com(W.D.Carvalho).

ofAdjustmentofConduct”formeatpackingcompanies(Termode AjustamentodeCondutadacarne,orTACdacarne,inPortuguese) (seeGibbsetal.,2016;Barretoetal.,2017),theSoyMoratorium (MoratóriodaSojainPortuguese)(Gibbsetal.,2015;Rauschand Gibbs,2016),andfederallegislationthathasalsobeenputinplace toprohibit thecommercializationoftimberfromnewlycleared areas(Brasil,2008).

However,whileBrazil’sAmazondeforestation ratesdeclined dramaticallyfrom2004to2012,theagreementsmentionedabove werenot theonly factorsactingto reducedeforestation atthe time(Fearnside,2017a).Indeed,70%ofthe“deforestation slow-down”occurredbetween2004and2007,duringwhichtimethe exchangerateoftheUSdollar againsttheBrazilian Realfellby morethan half,in turnmakingsoy andbeef exports less prof-itable(datain:Assunc¸ãoetal.,2015).Assuch,thedeforestation ratedeclinedindirectparallelwiththepriceofthese commodi-ties, andlaggedprices of soyand beef explain over75% ofthe

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pecon.2019.06.002

2530-0644/©2019Associac¸˜aoBrasileiradeCiˆenciaEcol ´ogicaeConservac¸˜ao.PublishedbyElsevierEditoraLtda.ThisisanopenaccessarticleundertheCCBY-NC-NDlicense (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

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Fig.1. MapofBrazilshowingtheAmazonandCerradobiomeswithremnant vegeta-tionhighlighted,themajorAmazoniansavannahs,andtheBrazilianstatesinwhich theyoccur.ThebiomelimitsarebasedontheBrazilianInstituteofGeographyand Statistics(IBGE)vegetationcovermap(IBGE,2004),remnantvegetationisbasedon LAPIG(2019).

deforestationinthisperiod(Arimaetal.,2014).From2008to2012, deforestationcontinuedtodeclineundervariousimproved gover-nancemeasures,includinga2008policychangethatdeniedaccess to the highly subsidized financing from government banks for agricultureandranchinginpropertieswithpending environmen-talfines,improvedsatellitemonitoringsystems,anda“blacklist” systemtopenalizemunicipalities(counties)withhighillegal defor-estation.Amongthemeasuresin effectduringthisperiodwere the2006SoyMoratoriumandthe2009beefagreement(TACda CarneinPortuguese)discussedinthispaper.Arguably,since2008 thesetwomeasureshavebeenimportantbarriersagainst defor-estationforsoyandlivestock(GollnowandLakes,2014;Fearnside, 2017a),whicharethemainlandusesinclearedAmazonforestareas (Fearnside, 2005;Baronaetal., 2010;Fearnsideand Figueiredo, 2016).

However,despitea 16%decreaseintherateofforestlossin theBrazilianAmazonbetween2016and2017,thegeneraltrend since2012hasbeenoneofincreasingclearingrates (Fearnside, 2017a;INPE,2018a).Indeed,between2015and2016therewas analarming 29%increase intheannual clearingratein Brazil’s Amazonforestandevenhigherincreasesintheneighbouring Cer-radobiome(Fig.1).IntheCerrado,theclearingratein2015was 11,795km2,arate47%higherthanthatrecordedinBrazil’s

Ama-zonforestinthesameyear(INPE,2018a,2018b).In2015,Brazil enteredaneconomiccrisisthatledtoGDPcontractionandatripling inunemploymentrates(Dobrovolskietal.,2018).

IncreasedclearingratesintheAmazonhavetriggeredaclause inNorway’sagreementwithBrazil,suchthatinJune2017the Nor-wegiangovernmenthalveditsannualcontributiontotheAmazon Fund,whichisusedtofundactionstoprevent,monitorand com-batdeforestationintheAmazon(Crouzeillesetal.,2017).Norway hasfurtherwarnedthatfundingmaybecompletelywithdrawnif theupwarddeforestationtrendcontinues(Crouzeillesetal.,2017). Theestimatedratesfor2018showadeepeningofthetrendfor increasingclearingrates(INPE,2018a),andtherearenowa num-berofreasonstoexpectthistrendtocontinueandfurtherdeepen inthecomingfouryears.On1stJanuary2019,Brazil’snew presi-dentialadministrationcameintopower,andsincethenanumber of key changes have been made that will have major implica-tionsforconservationintheAmazon(Artaxo,2019;Escobar,2019). Theseincludethetransferoftheadministrationofindigenouslands fromtheMinistryofJusticetotheMinistryofAgriculture,andthe eliminationoftheclimatesectionsofboththeMinistryofthe Envi-ronmentandtheMinistryofForeignAffairs(Artaxo,2019).Beyond

this,theBolsonaroadministrationhassuggestedthatBrazilmay leavetheUnitedNationsParisAgreement,inwhichthenational commitmentistoreducegreenhousegasemissionsby43%by2030, viabothanendtoillegaldeforestationandcommitmentsto refor-estationoflargeareas(Artaxo,2019).Thenewpresidentcurrently saysthat Brazilwillremainintheaccord“fornow”andonly if several(unlikely)changesaremadeintheagreement(Fearnside, 2019).

It isinthis contextofincreasingclearingratesthat weseek to understand the limitations of three key environmental ini-tiativesfor deforestationcontrol inBrazil:theSoy Moratorium, TACdaCarneandlogginglegislation.Specifically,wewill:1) dis-cussthewaysinwhichsoyplanters,cattleranchersandtimber merchantssubvertandbypassagreementsandlegislation, circum-ventingsurveillanceandenforcementefforts;2)discussthefailures ofthemechanismscurrentlyemployedtoreducetheimpactof soy,beefandtimberintheBrazilianAmazon;and,3)suggesthow local,nationalandinternationalforcescouldbeemployedto com-batthesefailuresandhelptooncemoreslowclearingratesinthe region.

TheSoyMoratorium

Createdin2006,theSoyMoratoriumwasthefirstvoluntary agreementbetweencivilsociety,industryandgovernmentwith theaimofstoppingthemainsoytradersfrompurchasingsoybeans producedinareasoftheAmazonclearedafterJuly2006.Thebase datewaschangedtoJuly2008inthe2014renewaltomeetthe criteriaofthenewBrazilianforestcodethatwasenactedin2012. Underthenewforestcode,itwasnolongerpossibletopenalize thosewhohad,beforeJuly2008,deforestedlegalreservesandthe “areasofpermanentprotection”thateachpropertyisrequiredto maintainalongwatercoursesandonsteephillsides(Gibbsetal., 2015; Rauschand Gibbs, 2016).TheSoy Moratorium had been renewed for limited periodssince itscreation, but in2016 the agreementwasrenewedindefinitely(Pati ˜no,2016).Followingthe original2006agreementanduntil2014,theareaplantedwith soy-beansdecreasedintheAmazonbiome(Macedoetal.,2012;Gibbs etal.,2015;RauschandGibbs,2016;Kastensetal.,2017;Gollnow etal.,2018).

WhiletheSoyMoratoriumhasaroleinpreventing deforesta-tion,itisalsosubjecttoboth“laundering”and“leakage”(Rausch andGibbs,2016;Macedoetal.,2012;Gollnowetal.,2018). Laun-deringoccursinthisagreementwhensoyproducedinembargoed areas iscommercialized asif itwereproduced in “regularized” areasorinthenamesof“laranjas”(peoplewhosenamesand iden-titydocumentsserveas‘fronts’forillegalactivities)(Gibbsetal., 2015;RauschandGibbs,2016).Whenthisoccurs,thefinal pur-chasermaynotknowthetruesourceofthesoypurchased.Indeed, sincemanyproducersownseveralfarms,soybeansproducedinan embargoedareacaneasilybetradedasbeingfromanotherfarm withregularizedstatus(RauschandGibbs,2016).Alternatively,the soyproductionfromanembargoedareamaybemarketedtogether withtheproductionfromaregularizedareawithinthesame prop-erty(RauschandGibbs,2016).

LeakagefromtheSoy Moratoriumoccursat differentscales. Producersmayplantsoyinregularizedportionsoftheir proper-ties(usuallypastureareasthatwereclearedbefore2008),butthen deforestotherareasinthesamepropertytocreatereplacement pasturesforthedisplacedgrazingactivity(RauschandGibbs,2016; Gollnowetal.,2018).However,thistypeofmigrationof deforesta-tiontootherareasalsooccursacrossbroaderspatialscales(Barona etal.,2010)andtheextentofthisimpactwouldbehardto exag-gerate.InMatoGrosso,astatetwicethesizeoftheUSstateof California, vastexpanses where deforestedareaswereformerly

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Fig.2. ThethreekeyagreementsfordeforestationcontrolintheBrazilianAmazondiscussedinthispaper(“Agreements”box),thewaysinwhichtheseagreements aresubvertedandthereforeundermined(“Subversions”box)andpossiblemeasuresthatcouldbeimplementedtoimprovethefunctioningoftheseagreementstocurb deforestationrates(“Solutions”box).Colouredarrowstracefromtheagreements(red=SoyMoratorium,blue=TACdaCarne,andbrown=prohibitionofcommercialization ofillegaltimber),tothesubversionstothepossiblesolutions.*CAR(CadastroAmbientalRural,orRuralEnvironmentalRegister)identifiesallruralpropertiesandowners, includinggeographiccoordinatesandtheidentificationofpreservationareaswithintheproperties(Brasil,2012).(Forinterpretationofthereferencestocolourinthisfigure legend,thereaderisreferredtothewebversionofthisarticle.)

usedforcattlepasturearenowfieldsofsoybeans(Arimaetal., 2011).Cattleranchersandsoyplantersaredistinctsocialgroups andhavedifferentspecializedskills.Whenlandinanareabecomes significantlymorevaluableforsoythanforpasture,thereisastrong incentiveforrancherstoselltheirlandtosoyplantersandusethe moneytobuylargerareasofcheaplandelsewhere,whichtheythen clearforcattlepasture(Fearnside,2017a).

Asubstantialimpactofconvertingpasturetosoyinboththe AmazonandCerradoportionsofthestateofMatoGrossohasbeen thedisplacementofranchingtootherareasofforestinthe Ama-zon,especiallyinthestateofPará,andthisrelationshiphasbeen demonstratedstatistically(Arimaetal.,2011;Richardsetal.,2014). Furthermore,deforestationdisplacementforsoyplantingmaybe contributingtorapidclearingintheCerradobiome(seeNoojipady etal.,2017;Gollnowetal.,2018),assoyplanterscanavoidthe deforestationrestrictionsoftheSoyMoratoriumbyestablishing theirplantations in theCerrado instead of theAmazon biome. WhileratesofclearingintheAmazonforestsweredeclining, with-outacorrespondingmoratoriumtheratesofclearingintheCerrado remainedhighintheyearssincetheSoyMoratoriumwassigned, especiallyintheregionknownas“MAPITOBA”,anacronym repre-sentingthestatesofMaranhão,Piauí,Tocantins,andBahia(Fig.3a). Approximately40%oftotalsoyexpansioninMAPITOBAbetween 2007and2013occurredinareasofnativevegetation(Gibbsetal., 2015),whichwerelegallyand/orillegallycleared(IBAMA,2018; Araújoetal.,2019).AcrossthewholeoftheAmazonandCerrado biomes,dataareavailableatthemunicipallevelondeforestation rates,numbersofcattleproducedandareaplantedwithsoybeans (INPE,2018a,b;IBGE,2019;Fig.3).Thesedatashowageneral pat-ternofincreasesin areaofsoybean plantationsinareas where thenumberofcattlehaveremainedconstantordecreased(e.g., inmunicipalitiesoftheMAPITOBAregion,particularlyFormosado RioPretoandSãoDesidérioinBahia,andBaixaGrandedoRibeiroin Piauí),andonlysmallincreasesintheareaplantedwithsoybeans inareaswherethenumberofcattlehaveincreasedgreatly(e.g., SãoFelixdoXinguinthestateofPará,andPortoVelhointhestate

ofRondônia)(Figs.3bandc),whichareusuallytheareaswiththe highestclearingrates(Fig.3a).However,dataarenotavailableata finerspatialscaleacrossthewholeregiontomakeadirectanalysis oflandconversion.

Clearingisalsonowacceleratinginnon-forestecosystemsinthe Amazonbiome,particularlyacrosstheAmazoniansavannahs,with dramaticincreasesintwolargesavannahcomplexesintheextreme northoftheAmazon–theCerradoofAmapáandtheLavradosof Roraima(Fig.1)(CarvalhoandMustin,2017;Hilárioetal.,2017; Mustinetal.,2017).

“TermsofAdjustmentofConduct”formeatpacking companies

TheTACdaCarne(hereafterreferredtoas“TAC”),wassignedin 2009bycattleproducers,meatpackersandthefederalgovernment, aimingtoblockthecommercializationofcattleproducedonland thatwasembargoedeitherduetoillegalclearingorbecauseother legalrequirementshadnotbeenmet(Fig.2)(Gibbsetal.,2016; Barretoetal.,2017).Undertheagreement,animalsfromproperties in theAmazonbiome clearedafterJuly2008 (thebase dateof thenewforestcode)cannotbesoldforslaughter,thusgenerating losses.However,ranchersfoundwaystocircumventtheagreement eitherbysellingcattletomeatpackersthatwerenotyetsignatories totheTAC,byregisteringonlythe‘deforestationfree’partsoftheir propertiesintheRuralEnvironmentalRegister(CadastroAmbiental Rural–CARinPortuguese,seefootnotetoFig.2),orby“laundering” cattleraisedand fattenedonnon-compliant propertiesthrough compliant properties that serve as middle-men before sale to slaughterhouses(Gibbsetal.,2016;Barretoetal.,2017;Klingler etal.,2018).Eightyearsafteritscreation,sixty-threemeatpackers (48%)activeintheAmazonbiomehadjoinedtheTAC,andthey togetherslaughterapproximately70%ofthecattleproducedinthe biome(Barretoetal.,2017).Meatpackersthatarenotsignatories to the agreement avoid costs of enforcement and monitoring,

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Fig.3. Mapsof(a)averageannualclearingratesbetween2006and2017forAmazon (INPE,2018a)andCerradobiome(INPE,2018b),(b)averageannualrateofchange inareaplantedwithsoybeansbetween2006(whenthesoymoratoriumcameinto force)and2017(IBGE,2019),and(c)averageannualchangeinnumberofheadof cattlebeinggrazedbetween2009(whentheTACcameintoforce)and2017(IBGE, 2019),permunicipalityintheAmazonandCerradobiomes.

makingnetprofitshigher(Barretoet al.,2017).Crucially, there is norealmarketpressure for non-signatorycompaniestojoin theTAC,asmanyinternationalmarketsforthemeatproducedin Brazil,includingtheincreasinglyimportantChinesemarket,donot requireanykindofmonitoringandenforcementofrulesregarding theoriginofcattle(Barretoetal.,2017).Atthebeginningof2018,

the Federal Public Prosecutor (MPF – Ministério Público Federal inPortuguese)releasedtheresultsofthefirstauditsoftheTAC, however,therewasnopunishmentfortheslaughterhousesthat receivedcattleproducedinillegalareas(Mengardo,2018).Inother words,theeffortsoftheslaughterhousesthatdidnotbuylivestock fromillegalareaswerenotrecognized,whichmakestheTACan evenmorefragileagreementforachievingzerodeforestation.

Prohibitionoftimbersalesfromnewlyclearedareas

SaleoftimberandotherforestproductsinBraziliscontrolled bya seriesof authorizationsand documentsunderthe respon-sibilityofeitherfederalorstateenvironmentalagencies(Brasil, 2011a).Thisprocesstakesplacethroughcomputerizedsystemsin whicha‘ForestOriginDocument’(DocumentodeOrigemFlorestal), orDOFinPortuguese(MMA,2006;Brasil,2011b)isissued electron-icallytothetimbermerchantandtocompaniesthatharvesttimber afterapprovalof a‘SustainableForestManagementPlan’(Plano deManejoFlorestalSustentável,orPMFSinPortuguese)orviaan ‘authorizeddeforestation’permit.TheDOFisacompulsorylicense tocontrolthetransportofnativeforestproductsandby-products, includingcharcoal(IBAMA,2017).However,thereareatleastthree waysbywhichillegaltimbermerchantscircumventthissystem. Firstly,dealersmaypurchaseinvoicesandDOFsfromplaceswhere thegovernment hasauthorized extraction, where permit hold-ersoftenoverestimatetheamountoftimberextractedfromthe authorizedmanagementprojectinordertogivetheappearanceof legalitytotimberextractedfromunauthorizedareas(Greenpeace Brasil,2015;Schmitt,2015).Secondly,smallfaketimbermerchants arecreatedinthenamesof“laranjas”(seedescriptioninsectionon theSoyMoratorium),simulatingthemovementoftimberproducts that,inreality,aretransferredtolargerealtimbermerchantsin areaswithahighpotentialforexploitation(PolíciaFederal,2017). Thirdly,volumesoftimberspecieswithhighcommercialvalueare overestimatedinlogginglicenses.Thisisshownbylargesystematic discrepanciesbetweenthevolumesofthesespeciesapprovedfor extractionandthevolumesthattheRadamBrasilsurveys(Projeto RadamBrasil,1973–1983)indicateaspresentintheoriginal for-estatthelocationsoftheforestmanagementprojects(Brancalion etal.,2018).

Neededimprovementsincontrolofdeforestationand logging

Deforestation

Tocombatthesubversionofdeforestation-controlagreements andlegislationthereisanurgentneedtosupport:(i)strengthening offederal,stateandmunicipalenvironmentalagenciesvia employ-mentofpublicservantsandinvestmentofresourcestoimprove implementationandenforcementoflegislationandagreements; (ii) use of technologies to monitor the efficiency of clearing-reductionprogrammessuchaselectroniccattleidentification(e.g., tagsandmicrochips),timbertrackingalongtheproductionchain andhigh-resolutionreal-timesatelliteimagerytomonitor defor-estation;(iii)effectiveandcorrectimplementationandcontrolof theCARtoassistintheprocessofenvironmentalregularization ofruralpropertiesand landclaimsin ordertopermit monitor-ingnewdeforestationandtoavoidirregularoccupationandland grabbing(grilagem);(iv)integrationofimplementation,controland enforcementsystemsacrossfederal,stateandmunicipal govern-mentssuchthat,forexample,aproducerwithlandembargoedby thestateormunicipal-levelagencyinonestate/municipalitywould notbeabletoselltimberinanotherstate/municipality,(v) imple-mentationofstricterlawstopreventillegalclearingofnewareas

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intheAmazonandCerrado,(vi)promotionoftheintegrationof publicpolicieswithprivateagreements,and(vii)increased trans-parencyinglobalsupplychains,coupledwithbetterlabellingand consumerinformation.

Inmanycases,suitabletechnologiesandsystemsalreadyexist tobettercontroladherencetothetermsofdeforestation agree-mentsandlegislation,andwhatislackingispoliticalwilltomake fulluse of thesetools. For example, theSoy Moratorium must nowbeproperlyimplementedandmonitoredinnon-forest ecosys-temsintheAmazon.Azero-netdeforestationagreementmustalso beputinplacefor theCerrado, withtheexpansionofsoy pro-ductionlimitedtoagronomicallysuitable areascurrentlyunder pasture(Strassburget al.,2017).In October2017,as a promis-ingfirststep,23majorinternationalcompaniessignedaletterof supportforthe“CerradoManifesto”–a documentthatcalls for companiesthatpurchasesoyandmeatfromtheCerradotoadopt effective policies and commitments to eliminate conversion of nativevegetation,dissociatetheirproductionchainsfromrecently clearedareas,and developincentives and financialinstruments tocompensateproducerswhopreserveareasofnativevegetation (SustainableBrands,2017).Marketpressuremustbekeptupto ensurethatthesepromisesarekept,and,crucially,effortisrequired topre-emptpotentialleakageandlaunderinginthedesignofany newagreement.Beyondthis,itiscrucialthatconsumersbe pro-videdwithclear,timelyinformation regardingtheoriginof soy andmeatacrosstheCerradoandAmazonbiomes.Initiativessuchas the“TransparentSupplyChainsforSustainableEconomies”project (hereafterreferredtoasTrase.Earth)mustbesupported,promoted andexpandedtoallowconsumerstounderstandthetradeflowsof commoditiessuchassoyandbeef,leadingtowholesupplychain transparencyand providingconsumerswiththepowertomake informeddecisionsabouttheirconsumptionandassociated envi-ronmentalimpacts(Trase.Earth,2019).Furthermore,thistypeof initiativewillalsoallowindividualcompaniestoassessthe sustain-abilityoftheirproductionandallowgovernmentsandcivilsociety asawholetomonitorandevaluateprogresstowardssustainability commitments(Trase.Earth,2019).

“Laundering”ofcattlecouldbereducedbybettermonitoring andenforcementoftheCARandbyintegratingit withthe Ani-malTransitPermit(GuiadeTrânsitoAnimal,orGTAinPortuguese), whichisalegallyrequiredhygienecheck.GTAscanonlybeemitted topropertiesregisteredinthestate-levelsanitarycontrolsystem (Barretoetal.,2017).TheGTAisobligatoryforanymeansof trans-port,allowingforthemonitoringoftheflowof animalstoand frommarkets(Brasil,2006).IfconnectedtotheCAR,theGTAcould alsobeused,muchliketheDOFfortimber,tomonitor compli-ancewithenvironmentallegislationandagreements.Specifically, thenumber ofheadofcattlethatleaveone placeandarriveat anotherthroughouttheentirecycle(breeding,raisingand fatten-ing)wouldberegisteredbytheGTA,makingitdifficulttolaunder cattlefromillegalranchesthroughthosewithauthorizationsin place.Ofcourse,measuresareneededtopreventtheGTAfrom beingfalsified,asoccurstodaywiththeDOF.Effective implemen-tationoftheCARisalsoneededforthismechanismtowork,and completingtheCARhasbeenpostponedfourtimessinceitwas createdbythenewforestrycodein2012.Thesepostponements havebeenduetopressure fromagribusinesspoliticians (“rural-istas”)whodemandedmoretimetocarryouttheenvironmental regularizationofruralproperties.Themostrecentdeadline,which wasnotmet,was31December2018(ValorEconômico,2018).

Finally,fromthepointofviewofnationalandglobalsocieties, theAmazonforestprovidesvaluableecosystemservicesinterms ofmaintainingbiodiversity,recyclingwater neededtomaintain rainfallintheAmazonandinsouth-easternandcentralBrazil(as wellasinneighbouringcountries),andinavoidingglobal warm-ingthroughitsstorageofcarbon(Fearnside,1997,2008b).Inthis

context,theAmazonhasavalueforsocietythatismuchgreater thantheprofitsthatalandholdercanreapbydestroyingthe for-est.However,andcrucially,progresshasbeenslowinconverting thisvalueintopaymentsforecosystemservices(hereafterreferred toasPES)thatwouldusethisvalueasanincentivetokeepthe forestsstanding.Thisisinpartbecauseofthetremendousimpact ofthewayinwhichecosystemservicesvaluesarecalculated,on theresultingvalues(e.g.,Fearnside,2012a,2018b).Thewaysthat PESpaymentsaremadealsoneedcarefulregulationtobothachieve theenvironmentalobjectivesandavoidnegativesocialsideeffects (e.g.,Fearnsideet al.,2018).PESin Amazoniais of a varietyof types,allofwhichinvolvecontroversies(Fearnside,2012b).PES projectsandplansrangefromvoluntarymarketprojectsin indige-nouslands(e.g.,Viteletal.,2013)andconservationunits(e.g.,Yanai etal.,2012)tostateandnational-levelprogrammes(e.g.,MMA, 2016;Nevesetal.,2013).Likecommand-and-control,PESrequires inspectionandenforcementmechanismstofunctioninpractice. Ecosystemserviceshavehighpotentialformaintainingtraditional Amazonianpopulationsandtheforeststheyinhabit,butcurrently theseserviceshavemuch lesspotentialtocompetewithhighly profitabledestructiveactivitiessuchasconversionofforestto soy-beans.However,this canandshouldchangeinthefutureifthe provisionofecosystemservicesbecomesmore highlyvaluedin Brazil.

Logging

Logging,whetherlegalorillegal,isamajorfactorinAmazon for-estdegradationandloss.Areasloggedeachyeararemuchlarger thanthosethatarecurrentlydeforested,and,incontrastto defor-estation,annualloggingrateshaveremainedrelativelystableover time. Biomasslossand carbon emissionsfromloggingare sub-stantial,withannualcarbonemissionsestimatedtototalbetween 61×106 (Fearnside,2001)and80×106tons(Asneretal.,2005).

For comparison, the estimatedgross carbon emission fromthe “alterationofvegetation”(i.e.,deforestation)inBrazilin2017was 117×106tons(seeSEEG,2019).Loggingalsocausesmassive

addi-tionalemissionsbyincreasingtheriskandseverityofforestfires, whichareanincreasinglypervasivethreattotheforest(Nepstad etal.,1999),andfavoursdeforestationbyexpanding“endogenous” roadsandprovidingmoneytopayforforestclearing(Fearnside, 2008a).

Legalloggingforforestmanagementiscurrentlyunsustainable forvarious reasons.One isthat theSustainableForest Manage-mentPlans areundermined bya seriesof regulatoryloopholes that allowharvesting timberin an entire management areain thefirstfew years insteadof following thesequenceof annual harvestsinoneplotforeachyear,suchthatthesystemwillbe sus-tainedfinanciallythroughoutthe30-yearcycle(Fearnside,2018a). Expectingthelandownertowaitwithoutincomeforupto29years untilthenextcycleisaformulafordeforestationofthe manage-mentarea,eitherbytheholderofthemanagementlicenseorby afuture propertyowner.Amore fundamentalunderlying prob-lemistheinherentcontradictionbetweenfinanciallogicandthe biologyoftreegrowth:destroyingtheforestandswitchingto alter-nativeinvestmentscan providebetter returnsthan waiting for loggedforeststandstorecoverinasustainablemanagement sys-tem(Fearnside,1989,2003).Thiscontradictionneedsbeaddressed basedontheecosystemservicesofmanagedforests.

Illegalloggingisstillrampantdespiteasubstantialdecreasein thelastdecade.InPará,forexample,asaresultofthemigrationof illegalloggingactivitytolegallyauthorizedlogging,theproportion ofloggingwhichwasillegalfellfrom97%between2011and2012, to44%between2015and2016(CardosoandSouza,2017). How-ever,SustainableForestManagementPlansforlegalloggingcan alsofacilitateillegalloggingbyprovidingameansof“laundering”

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illegaltimber.To bettercombatillegal timberextraction, there aretechniquescapableofidentifyingforeststhathaveundergone selectivelogging (Souzaand Barreto, 2000; Asneret al., 2005). Thesetechniques areless precisethan those that detect defor-estation(e.g.,Dinizetal.,2015),buttheycanbeusedtoidentify locations where such illegal activitieshave occurred, and thus allowon-the-groundenforcementeffortstobedirectedtothese places.Thiscouldbefurthersupportedbytheimplementationof integratedauthorizationsystems,suchastheNationalSystemfor theControloftheOriginofForestProducts(SistemaNacionalde ControledaOrigemdosProdutosFlorestais,orSinaflorinPortuguese), which is in theprocess of beingimplemented bythe Brazilian InstitutefortheEnvironmentandRenewableNaturalResources (IBAMA)(IBAMA, 2017).Thesesystems would allowoverlaying ofspatialdataontimberextractionwithdataontransport and propertylocations,facilitatingtheidentificationofillegalactivities.

Legalandpublicpolicychallenges

Brazil’senforcementandlegalsystemsprovidemultiple oppor-tunitiesfor infractions ofenvironmentallaws togo undetected orunpunished.Authorities onlycatchasmallfractionof illegal actions,andifcaught,theprobabilityoftheperpetratoractually payingtheresultingfineisalsoverylow.Forexample,basedon datafromassessmentsandfinesappliedbyIBAMAbetween2008 and2013,Schmitt(2015)foundthat45%ofdeforestationinthe Amazonisnotdetectedinatimelyfashionsuchthatactioncould betaken,andthatinonly24%ofthedetectedcasesafineisactually levied.Inaddition,duetodelaysinfines,lackoftechniciansto han-dlefinesandnumerousadministrativeproblems,onlybetween0.2 and5%offinesarepaid(Schmitt,2015;Odilla,2019).Thisleads thegovernmenttolosebillions of Brazilianreals (Odilla,2019) thatcouldbeappliedtoenvironmentalconservationand restora-tion.It alsomeansthat,fromthepointofviewofillegalactors, theexpectedmonetaryvalueofchoosingtheillegalcourseisvery high.Brazil’slegalsystemisbothnotoriouslyslowandallowsfor avirtuallyendlesssuccessionofappeals,withtheresultthatfor environmentalinfractionsaviolatorwithmoneyforlegaldefence canavoidpunishmentalmostindefinitely.Calculationsofthe eco-nomicsofillegalactivitiesintheAmazonshowthattheseactivities arehighlyprofitable,despiteBrazil’sEnvironmentalCrimesLaw (BritoandBarreto,2005;Cunhaetal.,2014;Schmitt,2015).

Therelativeeasewithwhichlandownerscanobtainpermission for“legal”deforestationalsoimpedeseffortstoreducenet defor-estationtozero.In2012,thenewForestCodecameintoeffectand both significantly reduced the proportion of private properties requiredtobepreservedas“permanentpreservationareas”(e.g.,

Rorizetal.,2017),andchangedtheproportionalarearequirements for“legalreserves”.IntheAmazoninparticular,requirementsfor legalreservesareimplementedinanunequalmanner.TheForest CoderequirespropertieswithintheLegalAmazonmustmaintain 80%oftheareaofthepropertyaslegalreserves(Overbecketal., 2015), unless the property falls within areas of Cerrado or of Amazoniansavannah,which areonly requiredtomaintain35% of the property within legal reserves (Overbeck et al., 2015). However,theagribusinesspoliticians(ruralistas)havebeenable tofurtherreducethearearequirementsintheAmazonianforests to50%whenthestatealreadyconservesmorethan65%ofitsarea throughProtectedAreas.ThisfactalonecouldleadBraziltolose 6.5–15.4millionhectaresofprivatelandtolegaldeforestationin thecomingdecades(Freitasetal.,2018).However,thesituation maybeworsestill asthesesamepoliticians,withthehelpand endorsementof thecurrent government,arenow tryingtoget approvalforalawthatwouldcompletelyrevoketheobligationof

privatelandownerstopreserveproportionsoftheirpropertiesin legalreserves(seeAlmeidaetal.,2019).

EventheCAR,whichhasthepotentialtobeanexcellenttool forenvironmentalconservation,isbeingusedtofacilitate defor-estation,astheCARisacceptedbylicensingauthoritiesasproof thattheownerofthepropertyhastherighttoclearmoreofthe propertyiftheregisteredareasofpermanentprotectionandlegal reservedonotpasstheproportionallimitsrequired.Assuch,the CARismakingiteasiertoobtainclearingpermitsasitisbasedon unverifiedself-declaredinformation,thusfacilitatingfalseclaims. Permitsarelikelytobecomeevenmoreeasilyobtainedunderthe newpresidentialadministration,sincethenewheadofthefederal environmentalagency(IBAMA)wantsagricultureandranchingto beauthorizedautomaticallybymerelyfillingoutanonlineform (Borges, 2018). Obtaining permissionfor legal logging inforest managementplanshasalsobecomeprogressivelyeasier. Environ-mentalimpactsofdeforestationandlogging,suchasbiodiversity lossandgreenhousegasemissions,donotdependonwhetheror nottheseactivitiesarelegal.

Theproblemsmentionedabovearethetipoftheicebergin com-parisonwiththosestilltocomeinrelationtotheconservationof oneofthemostbiodiverseregionsintheworld.Brazil’snew pres-identialadministration,whichtookofficeon1January2019,hasa markedlyanti-environmentalstancebothinrhetoricandpractice. WithJairBolsonarowellaheadinpollsfortheOctober2018 elec-tion,theAmazoniandeforestationrateincreasedby48.8%inthe lastthreemonthsofthecampaignascomparedtothesamemonths inthepreviousyear(Maisonnave,2018).Initsfirstmonthsafter takingoffice,thecurrentBrazilianpresidentialadministrationhas takenmeasuresthatgoagainsttheworldtrendtowardsincreased sustainabilityand conservationofecosystems.Amongthe mea-suresalreadytakenbythecurrentadministrationistransferringthe secretariatsresponsiblefordemarcationofindigenouslands(from theNationalIndianFoundation–FUNAI),quilombosandforrural settlements(fromtheNationalInstituteofColonizationand Agrar-ianReform–INCRA)topartsofthegovernmentledbyagribusiness politicians(MinistryofAgricultureLivestock andFoodSupply– MAPA and partof theMinistry of Women,Familyand Human Rights)(Abessaetal.,2019;Artaxo,2019;BegottiandPeres,2019; Giacomo,2019).Withthis,thecurrentgovernmentwillbemore easilyabletocontroldemarcationofthesetraditionallands,which haslongsincebeenhighonthewishlistoftheruralistas.Addedto this,thereismuchpressurefromtheagribusinesslobbytoallow large-scaleagriculture(mainlysoybeanplantations)andminingto becarriedoutwithinIndigenousLands(Gonzales,2019),with neg-ativeimplicationsfortraditionalwaysoflife,indigenousrightsand conservation.Beyondthis,theadministrationoftheMinistryofthe EnvironmenthasmadethreatstoICMBioandIBAMAofficials,as wellasreplacingtechniciansspecializedintheenvironmentalarea withpeoplewithnoappropriatetrainingorexperience(Bourscheit, 2019).ThishasledtoconflictswithintheBrazilianenvironmental agencies,aswellaskeydecisionsbeingmadewithouttechnical justification(Bourscheit,2019).Thecurrentgovernmenthaseven actedagainstthelawwhentryingtoimpedeinspectionactions ofIBAMAagentsworkingtomonitordeforestationwithin Conser-vationUnitsintheAmazon(Maisonnave,2019).Furthermore,the administrationhaspassedadecreethattransfersthe responsibil-ityforenvironmentallicensingfromIBAMA(thefederalagency)to statesandmunicipalities(Braganc¸a,2019),amovethat,in prac-tice,willweakenthelicensingprocess andactas agateway to alawcurrentlybeingprocessedbythecongressthatintendsto change Brazilian environmentallicensing requirements(Abessa etal.,2019).Thenewgovernmenthasalreadystatedmorethan oncethatitintendstoopentheAmazontomining(Fonsecaand Spring,2019;Sauer,2019;Woodward,2019),large-scale agricul-ture(Kilvert,2019;Sauer,2019)and infrastructure(Woodward,

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2019), measuresthatareunprecedentedinthehistoryofworld conservationandthatpresentarealthreattooneoftheworld’s mostmegadiverseregions.GlobalreactionstoBrazil’snew direc-tiononenvironmentalissueshavealreadybegun.Recentlyaletter wassignedby602Europeanresearchersandconservationistsand 2BrazilianIndigenousorganizationsthattogetherrepresent300 Brazilianindigenousgroups(Kehoeetal.,2019).Intheletter,the signatoriesrequesttheEuropeanUniontoensurethatBrazil pro-tects indigenous and local communities, humanrights and the environment,creatingenvironmentalcriteriafortraded commodi-ties(seeKehoeetal.,2019).

Deforestation-controlagreementsandlegislationareessential toolsforconservationofBrazil’ssociobiodiversity,althoughthey arenottheonlyfactorsinpreventingforestlossanddegradation. Inordertocombatthesubversionoftheseagreements,thelegal structures,publicpoliciesandverificationsystemsthatunderpin themmust beconstantlyupgradedtokeep pace withthenew waysthatsoyplanters,cattleranchersandtimbermerchantswill findtocircumventcommodityagreementsandgovernment reg-ulations.Withoutthis,clearingofallhabitattypeswillcontinue acrossBrazil’sbiomes,turningthecountryintoanevermore frag-mentedpatchworkofsoyplantations,cattlepasturesandillegal deforestation.

Acknowledgments

W.D.C.issupportedbya CAPES-PNPDpost-doctoral scholar-ship.K.M.issupportedbya MarieSkłodowska-CurieIndividual Fellowship.P.M.F.thanksCNPq(305880/2007-1;304020/2010-9; 573810/2008-7;575853/2008-5),Fundac¸ãodeAmparoàPesquisa do Estado do Amazonas (FAPEAM: 708565), Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas daAmazônia (INPA: PRJ15.125) and the Brazilian Research Network on Climate Change (Rede Clima). We thank AndersonR.Dinizforvaluablesuggestions.

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