Ending the conflict will ultimately require changes in the legal framework for decentralization to grant greater autonomy to communes and regions. The government can also reform institutions and management in order to take into account the specific characteristics of the education and legal systems in the English-speaking regions.
Introduction
The State of Play in the Anglophone Regions
The Security Situation
This relative financial independence allows them to break free from political organizations in the diaspora. Attacks by separatist militias in December 2018 on Bangourain, a village in the Francophone West region, near the border with the North West region, were followed by reprisals against Anglophone communities. 14.
The Humanitarian, Social and Economic Impact
Positions of the Parties I: The Government on the Defensive
Intransigence as a Rule
However, over-centralization is one of the main structural weaknesses of the country, which has led to the Anglophone crisis. By opposing these measures, the government is hindering the solution of the Anglophone crisis and is emphasizing the country's structural weaknesses. 34.
Disagreements within the Governing Class
Finally, the country's main cities, such as Douala, Yaoundé, Edéa and Garoua, are governed by super mayors (“government deputies”) appointed by the President of the Republic.33. But this is a mistake: the weakening of the separatists is due more to internal divisions and mismanagement of resources than to the losses they have suffered.
Sham Concessions
Positions of the Parties II: The Anglophone Actors
In connection with the government's intransigence, the concept of separatism first gained traction. Today, although Anglophones of all stripes (separatists, federalists and supporters of devolution) remain dissatisfied with the government's response, support for the armed militias has weakened due to the abuses they have committed and the high price the population is paying conflict.
The Separatists in a Strong Position in the Anglophone Movement
It aims to make the English-speaking regions ungovernable until the government realizes that the costs of fighting the armed militias are greater than the benefits arising from the exploitation of the regions' natural resources.55. Despite the public discourse, some separatist movements and influential members of the IG are believed to be in favor of a confederation/autonomy (for example similar to Northern Ireland's status in the UK) or federation (as in Germany, Canada, the US and Nigeria). But pressure from hardliners and young activists, some of whom have lost family members in the violence, and the dynamics of the conflict mean they are said to be reluctant to publicly consider a confederation a compromise solution.
We would also expect the release of all Anglophone detainees, including IG members; better political representation of Anglophones, including the appointment of an Anglophone as Vice President of the country; increasing public investment in Anglophone regions; and special measures for the reconstruction of conflict-affected areas.64. For example, in late December 2018, the IG called for an end to civil strikes in the last two weeks of the year, but the AGC opposed the call.
Federalists at the Crossroads
In order to finally negotiate with the government and reach an agreement with the separatists, the federalists must first come together and agree on a common position.
Other Anglophone Actors
The Other Main Actors: Francophone Cameroonians and International Partners
Francophone Cameroonians and international actors are now paying attention to the conflict in the English-speaking regions. Meanwhile, international partners are increasingly concerned about the way the conflict is spreading, but remain divided on their analysis of the crisis and how to resolve it.
Civil Society and the Francophone Opposition
Cameroonian NGOs such as the Central African Human Rights Network (Réseau des droits de l'homme en Afrique centrale) and Un Monde Avenir (A World to Come) have condemned the violence in Anglophone regions and called for dialogue. As for solutions, they tend to favor regionalism, in the form of comprehensive decentralization.90 These initiatives may eventually play a role in resolving the crisis, but, for now, they risk creating confusion and diluting the impact of initiatives that have more likely to find support with parties such as the Anglophone General Conference. The Cameroon Renaissance Movement (Mouvement pour la renaissance du Cameroun), the Eleven Million Citizens Movement, the Now Movement and the Cameroon People's Party are critical of the government's poor handling of the crisis.
For the most part, they favor regionalism, with the exception of the Now Movement, which supports a ten-state federalism. They provide material support to IDPs and refugees and organize strikes and civic marches in Francophone regions in support of the Anglophone population, but few Francophones participate.91.
The International Partners
The Western powers and multilateral initiatives
Crisis Group interviews, US congressional staff and US diplomats, Yaoundé, Washington DC and New York, October 2018, February and March 2019. Faced with the escalating crisis, he called for a political solution and, like other Western powers , encouraged the organizers of the Anglophone General Conference. However, in November 2017, the Security Council did have a detailed discussion on the Anglophone crisis at the biennial hearing of the Secretary-General's Special Representative for Central Africa.
Representatives of the United States, Great Britain and other Western countries made strong statements and demanded access to English-speaking regions for the United Nations and human rights organizations, investigations into violations and immediate dialogue between the government of Cameroon and the separatists.105. Others, such as the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (EMCCA) and the International Organization of Francophonie have condemned violence but tend to support the government.113.
Nigeria’s role
The AU has taken a more discreet stance on the Anglophone crisis, although many African and Western diplomats would like to see it play a bigger role.111 So far, only the African Commission on Human and People's Rights has firmly condemned the government's actions.112 Former African heads of state, including Nigeria's Olusegun Obasanjo and Ghana's Jerry Rawlings, have emphasized that a solution requires inclusive dialogue, but the AU does not seem inclined to put any pressure on Yaoundé. It is likely to retain this position in 2019 under the Egyptian presidency – the Egyptian government believes that it is not the role of the AU to interfere in the political affairs of states. Intergovernmental organisations, such as the Commonwealth, have little influence or willingness to take the initiative on the Anglophone issue, although the Commonwealth has made some statements and the Secretary-General visited Cameroon in December 2017.
Nigerian security forces also launched Operation Delta Safe 3 in Cross River state to curb the arms trade and the flow of fighters from Nigeria to Cameroon. The presence of 35,000 Anglophone refugees in Nigeria and the manner in which the Anglophone crisis and border closures are hampering trade could eventually lead the Nigerian government to push for a political solution.
How to Establish a Dialogue?
Build Trust and Break the Cycle of Destruction
The government must not set conditions for a dialogue with the separatists about the form of government (decentralization, regionalism or federalism), even though it believes that the unity of the country is not negotiable. The separatists will probably continue to insist that talks should cover secession.118 However, since international actors do not support secession, they should be ready from the start to discuss other options that meet English demands for greater autonomy and respect for the specific characteristics of their regions. They should hold talks with the less intransigent separatists to try to convince them to attend the Anglophone General Conference.
They must conduct an international campaign to promote a peaceful resolution of the conflict, to avoid leaving the international field to the separatists alone. Finally, if Cameroon's government continues to oppose an English-language General Conference, they should propose holding it outside Cameroon.
Getting to Talks and the International Support
Several members of the US Congress and some senior administration officials are currently making plans for such a possibility.121. At the multilateral level, Europeans, Americans and Africans should lobby the UN Security Council to include the Anglophone crisis on its agenda despite its divisions, all the more so as the French are less reticent and the Americans are more active since the arrest of Maurice Kamto.122 It is also important to put the Anglophone crisis on the agenda of the African Union Peace and Security Council, an initiative that could be taken by the Chairperson of the African Union Commission, Chad's Moussa Faki Mahamat. This seems unlikely given his and Chadian President Idriss Deby's close ties with the Cameroonian authorities and Faki's preference for using his own good offices over the PSC's more public forum.
The Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) must declare her intention to initiate preliminary examinations of abuses committed by both parties. Core issues: Institutional reform and the form of the state In his 2018 year-end speech, Paul Biya promised to "accelerate decentralization".
The Substantive Issues: Institutional Reform and the Form of the State
Conclusion
Cameroon faces an increasing number of security challenges: Boko Haram in the far north, conflict in the Anglophone regions and violence in Adamawa. In addition to these insecure areas, economic weakness, heightened political tensions and ethnic divisions have become more acute since the presidential election in October 2018 and the arrest of the opposition leader in January 2019.129 Of all these crises, the conflict in the Anglophone regions is the most costly in terms of casualties and the treasury. As he enters what will no doubt be his last seven-year term in office, the "peace" and "coexistence" he always claimed to promote are a thing of the past.
The peaceful resolution of the English crisis may be his last chance to reinvigorate the country, otherwise he will go down in the history books as a president who went missing when his country needed him the most, abandoning Cameroon has. of endless cycles of violence.
Acronyms
Armed Separatists Presence in the Anglophone Regions
Note: It is difficult to estimate the number of these armed groups in the Anglophone part of Cameroon because they tend to claim higher numbers than they actually have. For example, the leader of SOCADEF said that his group had more than 3,500 active fighters, but he appears to have no more than 500. Finally, attacks in the Francophone Western Region (Noun, Bamboutos and Menoua Divisions) appear to be and a few small groups based in the Ngoketunjia division (Babessi, Bambaland, Bamessing and Bamali) in the North West region.
About the International Crisis Group
Fighting Boko Haram in Chad: Beyond Military Measures, Africa Report N°246, 8 March 2017 (also available in French). Time to reset African Union-European Union relations, Africa Report N°255, 17 October 2017 (also available in French). Time for joint action in DR Congo, Africa Report N°257, 4 December 2017 (also available in French).
Cameroon’s Far North: A New Chapter in the Fight Against Boko Haram, Africa Report No. 263, 14 August 2018 (also available in French). Nigeria: Women and the Boko Haram Insurgency, Africa Report N°242, 5 December 2016 (also available in French).
Crisis Group Reports and Briefings on Africa since 2016
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