Prospect Theory

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Stochastic Models for Assets Allocation under the Framework of Prospect and Cumulative Prospect Theory

Stochastic Models for Assets Allocation under the Framework of Prospect and Cumulative Prospect Theory

The paper [3] shows that the prospect theory can resolve a number of decision making paradoxes, but the author notes that it is not a ready-made model for economic applications. Nevertheless, recent years show increasing interest in the problems lying in the intersection of prospect theory and portfolio optimization theory. It should be noted, that due to the computational difficulties connected to the complexity of the numerical evaluation of the CPT-utility, there are not so many works devoted to the portfolio optimization problem under the framework of both prospect theory [4], [5] and cumulative prospect theory [6], [7], [8], [9], [10]. While the papers contain some numerical results, only simple cases (2- 3 artificially created assets) of the portfolio selection problem are considered. Besides, most of the papers are based on the assumption that testing data are normally distributed. How- ever, it is well known that many asset allocation problems involve non-normally distributed returns since commodities typically have fat tails and are skewed.
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Risky choices: prospect theory and fairness judgments

Risky choices: prospect theory and fairness judgments

In the second experiment, they used an organizational situation. The scenarios were also given with the option already chosen. Subsequently, the participants had to answer several questions: one on overall justice; another about the acceptance of the company’s decision; and a third about the engagement with the company. Then, they had to list thoughts they experienced when they were reading the scenarios – counterfactual thinking. The participants in conditions congruent to Prospect theory mentioned higher fairness ratings than those in conditions incongruent to Prospect theory. Besides, the participants were more disposed to accept the chosen decision and were more engaged in decisions congruent to Prospect theory. Finally, the authors found that counterfactual thinking mediated the effect between decision frame and option riskiness on perceived justice (Ganegoda & Folger, 2015).
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Comportamento do investidor diante de oscilações positivas/negativas nas pesquisas de intenção de voto na campanha presidencial de 2014: evidências da prospect theory

Comportamento do investidor diante de oscilações positivas/negativas nas pesquisas de intenção de voto na campanha presidencial de 2014: evidências da prospect theory

postulada foi observada na campanha presidencial de 2014, na qual houve momentos em que havia a possibilidade de vitória tanto do(a) candidato(a) de oposição, implica[r]

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Rev. adm. empres.  vol.55 número1

Rev. adm. empres. vol.55 número1

The disposition efect predicts that investors tend to sell winning stocks too soon and ride losing stocks too long. Despite the wide range of research evidence about this issue, the reasons that lead investors to act this way are still subject to much controversy between rational and behavioral expla- nations. In this article, the main goal was to test two competing behavioral motivations to justify the disposition efect: prospect theory and mean reversion bias. To achieve it, an analysis of monthly transactions for a sample of 51 Brazilian equity funds from 2002 to 2008 was conducted and regres- sion models with qualitative dependent variables were estimated in order to set the probability of a manager to realize a capital gain or loss as a function of the stock return. The results brought evidence that prospect theory seems to guide the decision-making process of the managers, but the hypothesis that the disposition efect is due to mean reversion bias could not be conirmed.
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Behind behavioral economic man: the methods and conflicts between two perspectives

Behind behavioral economic man: the methods and conflicts between two perspectives

they reported many experimental results in situations with risk. Each of the experiments are used to describe biased choices that deviate from RCT (in the expect utility theory version) and that they want to incorporate to the model. Differently from the Heuristic and Biases program, they do not search for new heuristics to explain behavior, and they do not even use the previously described heuristics. To understand the process behind Prospect Theory, they distinguish two phases of the choice process: the first is an Editing Phase (or Framing Phase), which consists of a preliminary analysis of prospects and it is when a person mentally changes the problem to make it simpler and easier to evaluate (i.e. individuals use heuristics). The second is the Valuation Phase when the edited prospects are evaluated and the prospect of highest value is chosen (a static and maximizing process, similar to those in RCT). K&T described many possible processes of what could happen during the Editing Phase. For instance, they describe the combination and cancellation of similar prospects. However, no formal theory is proposed: “Framing (Phase) is controlled by the manner in which the choice problem is presented as well as by norms, habits, and expectancies of the decision maker.”
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Metabolic state alters economic decision making under risk in humans.

Metabolic state alters economic decision making under risk in humans.

Stephens suggested that when an animal chooses between two foraging options giving normally-distributed energetic returns with equal means but different variance, an organism aiming to maximise ‘fitness’ (i.e. survival probability) prefers safer (lower variance) options when above a metabolic reference point (e.g. energetic requirement over the day) but riskier (higher variance) options when below a metabolic reference point [17]. Alternative models predict that risk-preference will dynamically adjust depending upon metabolic state, energy reserves, and intake rate [18,19]. If energy intake rate is below a reference point, this induces greater risk-seeking. Above a reference point, there is a change toward greater risk-aversion. The metabolic reference point is often taken in ecology as the intake rate required to reach a survival threshold, with the increasing probability of starvation as current intake rate drops below threshold promoting risk-seeking behaviour. This reference point can also be a reproductive threshold [20], or an alternative homeostatic marker set at the expected intake level according to previous feeding history [21,22]. These models also predict that baseline risk-attitude will depend upon baseline energy reserves, with increased baseline risk- aversion as energy reserves exceed a threshold. Finally, at repletion, marginal changes in energy are not predicted to have significant impact on ecological fitness, and organisms will become insensitive to risk (risk-neutral). This relationship between energy intake, energy reserves, and attitude toward risk closely mirrors Prospect Theory’s account of the relationship between risk- attitude for money, economic reference points, and the effect of changes in wealth (see Figure S1 for illustration). Indeed, a direct link between these conceptual frameworks from psychology and ecology is suggested by observations that human monetary decisions under risk are systematically influenced by an ‘earnings budget’, and that risk-preference in starlings changes according to relative amounts of gain or loss in food reward, even when overall nutritional intake is controlled (i.e. experimental manipulations of the reference point) [22,23].
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INSTITUTO SUPERIOR DE ECONOMIA E GEST ˜

INSTITUTO SUPERIOR DE ECONOMIA E GEST ˜

Up to now, we have shown how the cumulative prospect theory describes the risk preferences of a Portuguese sample and some demographic differences between those preferences, which by itself is an important step to improve our knowledge about the risk decision made by the Por- tuguese. However, if we want this theory to have a bigger role in measuring the risk preferences of an individual it is extremely important to simplify the calculations presented in section 3.2. As so, in a partnership with Silva (2012) we try to find a relation between the loss aversion coefficient and the DOSPERT-Scale. This linkage between CPT and the DOSPERT-scale is not enough to apply this theory to the financial markets. The theory that is commonly used to choose the efficient portfolio, better known as ”Portfolio Selection” by Markowitz (1952) is based on the expected utility theory so it is necessary to adapt it to the cumulative prospect theory.
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Rev. adm. empres.  vol.57 número5

Rev. adm. empres. vol.57 número5

Prospect theory has been used, amongst other things, to explain the low participation of individual investors in the stock market, high trading intensity in capital markets (Gomes, 2005), investor preference for returns with positive asymmetric distributions (Barberis & Huang, 2008) and the stock market’s risk premium and volatility (Barberis, Huang, & Santos, 2001). To date, most studies have used samples composed of students to test decision making from a prospect theory standpoint (Stott, 2006, Abdellaoui, Bleichrodt, & L’Haridon, 2008, Harrison & Rutström, 2009; Zeisberger, Vrecko, & Langer, 2012).
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Cubic Galileon theory in the Effective Field theory formalism: a cosmological study

Cubic Galileon theory in the Effective Field theory formalism: a cosmological study

O desafio surge, no entanto, do facto de cada modelo ser, geralmente, descrito por um conjunto de equa¸ c˜ oes e parˆ ametros espec´ıficos. Sendo ` a partida necess´ ario um tratamento indi- vidual para cada proposta. De modo a agilizar e simplificar o processo de teste das propostas existentes, procurou-se encontrar um formalismo mais abrangente, sendo capaz de descrever diferentes modelos de EE/GM e que em simultˆ aneo oferecesse uma forma mais pr´ atica de os investigar. V´ arias abordagens foram ent˜ ao desenvolvidas, de entre as quais se destaca a Teoria de Campo Efetivo (Effective Field Theory - EFT) por manter uma maior conex˜ ao com a teoria de gravita¸ c˜ ao subjacente. A EFT oferece um formalismo geral, ou seja, sem dependˆ encia de um modelo espec´ıfico, que descreve a evolu¸ c˜ ao de perturba¸ c˜ oes lineares em modelos que apresentem um ´ unico grau de liberdade escalar extra. Esta revela ser uma abordagem englobante uma vez que a maioria dos modelos de EE/GM propostos podem ser descritos como modifica¸ c˜ oes da RG atrav´ es da adi¸ c˜ ao de um campo escalar extra. Dentro do formalismo da EFT, o comportamento tanto ao n´ıvel da hist´ oria de expans˜ ao como ao n´ıvel das perturba¸ c˜ oes passa a ser descrito por um conjunto de coeficientes com dependˆ encia temporal, designados por fun¸ c˜ oes EFT, que s˜ ao introduzidos na formula¸ c˜ ao da a¸ c˜ ao que descreve a teoria. Esta constru¸ c˜ ao permite que a EFT tenha uma aplica¸ c˜ ao dual. Por um lado, ´ e poss´ıvel investigar o efeito de ligar ou desligar um certo conjunto de coeficientes, sem selecionar nenhum modelo em particular. Por outro lado, ´
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Manuscrito  vol.34 número1

Manuscrito vol.34 número1

depending on the resources of the language and the logic we use, the properties of the concepts that can be defined, including those of in- discernibility and individuality, will change. It is then unclear whether it is possible to formulate explicitly the metaphysical conception of an individual. According to a universal theory of structures, since defin- ability is a property that depends on the language and the logic we use, the definability of concepts such as indiscernibility and individu- ality will also be language- and logic-dependent. Rather than absolute concepts (as the metaphysical conception would have it), indiscerni- bility and individuality are then relative to the logic and language in question. A significant philosophical re-conceptualization of the issues emerges.
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THE THEORY OF THE FIRM AND THE EVOLUTIONARY GAMES

THE THEORY OF THE FIRM AND THE EVOLUTIONARY GAMES

2. The institutional and neo-institutional perspective on the theories of the firm The Walrasian model (1873) was imposed, economics focused exclusively on production and consumption. Postulating institutions and rational behavior made it possible to develop mathematical models by which the interaction on the free market could be conceptualized. Thorstein Veblen (1899) argued the need for a reorientation of the economic theory from the exclusive concern regarding individual choices towards the study of institution’s impact and evolution. John R. Commons (1931) advanced the idea that the economy is defined by institutions and conflicts of interest. The institutional paradigm developed as a reaction to the tendency of economics’ specialization on supply and demand issues, ignoring the problem of institutions that enable the functioning of markets (Veblen 2005).
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Convexity in semi-metric spaces, decision theory and consumer theory

Convexity in semi-metric spaces, decision theory and consumer theory

Convexity is a concept usually developed in vector spaces. However since the seventies of the 20th century, convexity is also study in metric spaces in general. In this paper we develop a theory of convexity - including convex real functions - in semi-metric spaces and we suggest some possible applications in Economics and Decision Theory.

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Associação entre os índices operacionais e a taxa de ocupação de um centro cirúrgico geral.

Associação entre os índices operacionais e a taxa de ocupação de um centro cirúrgico geral.

This is a prospect ive st udy t hat focused on t he dynam ics of operat ing room s using operat ional indexes t hat m easure opt im izat ion, resist ance, overload and ut ilizat ion of t he surgical unit , and also ident ified t he fact ors m ost associat ed wit h t hese indexes. A t ot al of 1,908 surgeries were analyzed over a period of t wo m ont hs in 2007. The average rat es of ut ilizat ion, opt im izat ion and resist ance indexes were 80.41% , 65.35% and 34.65% r espect ively. The differ ence bet w een t he posit ive and negat ive over load index w as low ( 5.42% ) . Oper at ing room rescheduling and delays were the variables that contributed the m ost to the increase in these indexes. I n the linear regression statistical m odel, the utilization rate was found to be the first com m on variable selected in t he overload, resist ance and opt im izat ion indexes. I t is essent ial t o work on t hese operat ional indexes wit h a view t o obt ain sat isfact ory result s in t he m anagem ent of t he surgical cent er, wit h well- defined work processes and t eam w or k.
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Rev. LatinoAm. Enfermagem  vol.17 número4

Rev. LatinoAm. Enfermagem vol.17 número4

Est udo prospect ivo que analisou a dinâm ica das salas cirúrgicas at ravés de índices operacionais que m edem a ot im ização, resist ência, sobrecarga e ocupação do cent ro cirúrgico, e t am bém ident ificou os fat ores que m ais se associar am a esses índices. For am analisadas 1908 cir ur gias, dur ant e dois m eses de 2007. A t ax a de ocu p ação e os ín d ices d e ot im ização e r esist ên cia m éd ios en con t r ad os f or am 8 0 , 4 1 , 6 5 , 3 5 e 3 4 , 6 5 % , r esp ect iv am en t e. A d if er en ça en t r e o ín d ice d e sob r ecar g a p osit iv o e n eg at iv o f oi b aix o ( 5 , 4 2 % ) . O rem anej am ento de sala e o atraso, respectivam ente, foram as variáveis que m ais contribuíram para a elevação desses índices. No t est e est at íst ico de regressão linear observou- se que a t axa de ocupação foi a prim eira variável com um selecionada t ant o nos índices de sobrecarga, resist ência com o ot im ização. É fundam ent al a at uação sobre esses índices operacionais para se obt er result ados sat isfat órios no gerenciam ent o do cent ro cirúrgico, com processos bem definidos e t rabalho em equipe.
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Rev. Assoc. Med. Bras.  vol.57 número3 en v57n3a21

Rev. Assoc. Med. Bras. vol.57 número3 en v57n3a21

In the attempt to improve response predictive model ac- curacy to neoadjuvant chemotherapy, analyses using cDNA microarray technology were conducted. he prospect is this methodology, which allows a concomitant analysis of the tumor overall gene expression, in contrast with stan- dard immunohistochemical tests, in which the expression of only a number of proteins could be analyzed, gives rise to advances in the identiication of patients responsive to chemotherapy. he evaluation of gene signatures associated with prediction of response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy is this review target.
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Fatores determinantes do uso ou desuso da informação na Wikipédia

Fatores determinantes do uso ou desuso da informação na Wikipédia

The theory was developed through a review and consolidation of the constructs of 8 models from earlier researches to explain IS usage behavior. These 8 models are theory of reasoned action (TRA), technology acceptance model (TAM/ TAM2), motivational model (MM), theory of planned behavior (TPB), a combined theory of planned behavior/technology acceptance model (C-TPB- AM), model of PC utilization (MPCU), innovation diffusion theory (IDT), and social cognitive theory (SCT). The UTAUT supported that the effect of performance expectancy on behavioral intention was stronger for men and younger users. And the effect of effort expectancy on behavioral intention was stronger for women, older users, and users with less experience. The effect of social influence on behavioral intention was stronger for women, older users, under conditions of mandatory use, and users with less experience. Finally, facilitating conditions were not significant to behavioral intention, but the effect of facilitating conditions on usage was stronger for older users and users with more experience.
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Structural control on gold mineralization in the Satulinmäki and Riukka prospects, Häme Schist Belt, southern Finland

Structural control on gold mineralization in the Satulinmäki and Riukka prospects, Häme Schist Belt, southern Finland

A number of gold prospects have been investigated in southern Finland, which represent various genetic types like metamorphosed epithermal, orogenic me- sothermal, massive sulphide, and submarine hydro- thermal, whereas for some prospects, the origin is not resolved (FINGOLD public database). At regional scale, many prospects in southern Finland seem to be controlled by shear zones or faults, mostly striking SW-NE to W-E. This is also reflected in the SW-NE alignment of gold prospects in the southern regions (Häme and Uusimaa belts) (Fig. 15c). Within single prospect areas, a NW-SE alignment of neighbouring prospects is recognizable, like for example of Kulta- nummi and Korvenala and Riukka and Satulinmäki. Further north the gold occurrences define a NW-SE trend. However, it is not yet studied if individual gold deposits, which have different origins and structural settings in the Häme belt and possibly also in other
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Saude soc.  vol.23 número2

Saude soc. vol.23 número2

At the beginning of the century, the acronym BRIC first appeared in a study produced by an economist at Goldman Sachs. Economic and financial inte- rest in BRICS resulted from the fact of them being seen as drivers of development. The purpose of this review is to analyze the extent to which what is being proposed at the Declarations of Heads of State and in the Declaration and Communiqué of Ministers of Health of BRICS can provide guidance to the potential of achieving a healthier world. With that in mind, the methodology of analysis of State- ments and Communiqué rose from the discussions at the Summit of Heads of State and Ministers of Health was adopted. In the first instance, the study focused on the potential for economic, social and environmental development, and in the second, on the future of health within the group addressed. The conclusion reached was that despite the prospect of continued economic growth of BRICS countries, coupled with plausible proposals for the health sector, strong investment by the countries in S&T and technology transfer within the group, research on the social and economic determinants that drive the occurrence of NCDs – there is the need and the opportunity for joint action of the BRICS in terms of the “diplomacy of health” reinforcing the whole process of sustainable development.
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Os curadores em exposição: um grupo profissional no mundo da arte contemporânea

Os curadores em exposição: um grupo profissional no mundo da arte contemporânea

Reclama contributos heurísticos e perspectivas de análise derivados do confronto entre a grounded theory e a grand theory, em prol de uma leitura multidimensional (Conde,[r]

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