Risk assessment

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Algorithmic long-term unemployment risk assessment in use

Algorithmic long-term unemployment risk assessment in use

In an unemployment center, clients are physically pre- sent, either to register or to discuss their situation with the counselors as their unemployment prolongs over time. The clients are served on a first-come-first-served basis, and there are no dedicated counselors in the centers. The counselors have an information system’s interface on their screens, with information that supports their interaction with the client. The required data-collection fields are man- ually populated by the counselors, who register the data reported by the client, their interaction, and the relevant takeaways from it. Upon collecting the client data, the risk- assessment model produces a numeric risk score and cat- egorizes the risk in one of three categories (low, medium, and high). The model that calculates the risk and the factors underlying the risk-assessment results are opaque to the counselors. The final decision on the prescription of inter- ventions to help the unemployed person through is left at the discretion of the counselor. In practice, counselors de- fine a personal employment plan (PEP) together with the candidate, specifying activities the candidate should under- go, such as specialized or general training sessions, job in- terviews, or other forms of active job search. At IEFP, these activities are referred to as interventions. The counselor is advised to include specific types and numbers of activities in the PEP in proportion to the estimated risk (a higher risk requires a more intensive PEP). However, the risk profile only sets the minimum activities the PEP must include by type. In practice, counselors may propose additional inter- ventions if the plan complies with the minimum require- ments.
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An integrated approach for risk assessment in port projects

An integrated approach for risk assessment in port projects

Port risk management is utilized to describe a sequence of the analysis and management activities focused on creating specific responses to inherent risks in port projects. Risk assessment is taken into account in the projects; however, it is still comparatively neglected for the assessment process with non-parametric resampling techniques and interval analysis . The required data and experts’ judgments in developing countries are often small. Hence, traditional approaches cannot assist such problems remarkably. An integrated approach is proposed in this paper for risk assessment in port projects for the use of the bootstrap and interval computations. In an application example, the proposed approach is investigated in detail . Finally, the traditional and proposed approaches are compared.
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A Mathematical Derivation of a Risk Assessment Procedure

A Mathematical Derivation of a Risk Assessment Procedure

The common approach to risk assessment on technological sys- tems is to find the possible vulnerabilities and to evaluate them according to the damage they may cause and to the probability they will be abused. There are huge databases of vulnerabili- ties for almost every piece of hardware and software and those repositories are used to test by means of the so-called security scanners, what known vulnerabilities affect a given system. This knowledge is essential for a correct risk assessment, but it is not sufficient. In fact, the correct evaluation of the impact of the found vulnerabilities depends on the structure of the system and on the goals the system should meet. These evaluations are im- possible without a direct knowledge of the system and of the en- vironment where the system operates. So, security analysts play an essential role in applying risk assessment methods since their experience is used to evaluate the “local” impact of the possible vulnerabilities.
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Integrated tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment: application to the coastal area of El Salvador

Integrated tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment: application to the coastal area of El Salvador

The success or failure of many policies and management practices is based on their ability to take into account com- plexities of CHANS (Liu et al., 2007). Understanding the in- terrelationships between human societies and their behaviour patterns, coastal resources and their uses, as well as poli- cies and institutions that govern human activities is essential for adequate coastal management. This requires an integrated and multidisciplinary approach to analyse the entire system in order to understand the feedback loops that manage its be- haviour and equilibrium instead of simply considering spe- cific aspects of a single sector or scientific discipline. This approach is applied here throughout the exposure and vul- nerability assessments, as they are fragmented to incorporate different coastal dimensions (human, environmental, socioe- conomic and infrastructural dimensions) within the tsunami risk assessment, based on EC (2010), the Hyogo Framework for Action (UN, 2005) and the impacts generated in recent tsunami events. Contrary to other previous works found in the literature, the human and socioeconomic dimensions are separated here on purpose, as the information regarding the human dimension will directly feed the evacuation planning of the area (González-Riancho et al., 2013), while the so- cioeconomic dimension focuses on livelihoods and economic losses. The elements at risk vary with time and space, as both factors will change the amount and type of exposed and vulnerable elements. For this reason, and according to EC (2010), impact assessments are defined based on a reference space-time window.
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Yellow fe risk assessment in the Central African Republic

Yellow fe risk assessment in the Central African Republic

Prevention and control of yellow fever requires detailed eco-epidemiological studies on the different transmission cycles. A group of experts developed a multidisciplinary risk assessment tool, including serological surveys in human and non-human pri- mates, and assessment of vector density and infectivity. 7 In this context, Staples et al. (2014) conducted in the CAR the first nationwide epidemiological evaluation of yellow fever since the 1970s. 8 After registration of an unprecedented number of laboratory-confirmed cases of yellow fever in CAR in 2008/2009 in multiple outbreaks, WHO experts developed a comprehensive study of YFV activity (using this risk assessment tool) to estimate the potential disease risk and vaccine needs in the country. 8
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Neutrophil-Lymphocyte Ratio in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment

Neutrophil-Lymphocyte Ratio in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment

The development of cardiovascular diseases with atherosclerotic origin is associated with a severe inflammatory process. Neutrophils and lymphocytes are cells sensitive to this type of disorder and their ratio, known as the NLR (neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio), has shown to be useful in clinical practice. The aim of this study was to assess the role of NLR in cardiovascular disease risk assessment. We carried out a literature review in the PubMed databases searching for articles published between 2001 to 2017 and found that NLR is in fact a useful marker for cardiovascular disease. Using NLR in patients at cardiovascular risk would be useful to delineate the prognosis of patients with this disease pattern.
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RISK ASSESSMENT IN PROJECT PLANNING USING FMEA AND CRITICAL PATH METHOD

RISK ASSESSMENT IN PROJECT PLANNING USING FMEA AND CRITICAL PATH METHOD

Other methods were also applied, like the Ishikawa (Cause and Effect or Tree diagram). The results corroborated the validity of conclusions derived from risk assessment and FMEA. Therefore, the author considered that the incorporation of FMEA analysis within the ISO22000 system of a pistachio processing plant is considered essential. In [2] as in the previous one a combination of the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) and ISO 22000 was applied for risk assessment, this time in salmon manufacturing processes.
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Neutrophil-Lymphocyte Ratio in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment

Neutrophil-Lymphocyte Ratio in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment

The development of cardiovascular diseases with atherosclerotic origin is associated with a severe inflammatory process. Neutrophils and lymphocytes are cells sensitive to this type of disorder and their ratio, known as the NLR (neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio), has shown to be useful in clinical practice. The aim of this study was to assess the role of NLR in cardiovascular disease risk assessment. We carried out a literature review in the PubMed databases searching for articles published between 2001 to 2017 and found that NLR is in fact a useful marker for cardiovascular disease. Using NLR in patients at cardiovascular risk would be useful to delineate the prognosis of patients with this disease pattern.
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Reconsidering the risk assessment concept: <br>Standardizing the impact description as a building block for vulnerability assessment

Reconsidering the risk assessment concept: <br>Standardizing the impact description as a building block for vulnerability assessment

Regional-scale hazard mapping is one of the first steps in a comprehensive risk assessment procedures as required by the Swiss forest law Swiss Conf. (1991a) and the law on hy- draulic engineering Swiss Conf. (1991b). In the course of the mapping, various hazards are usually investigated, ranging from snow avalanches over torrent-related hazards to land- slides. The models used for the hazards differ not only in complexity and accuracy, but also in their output parameters. The current approach for comparing the impacts of the var- ious hazards is the delineation of zones according to a com- mon scheme. Usually, the following zones are distinguished with regard to the intensity of impacts (the frequency is an- other criterion, but not considered here):
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Risk assessment in airlines stocks market

Risk assessment in airlines stocks market

This paper presents an analysis of potential loss between two portfolios of stocks from aviation companies from the United States and Europe using Value-at-Risk (VaR) framework. The VaR method measures risk of loss with a given degree of confidence on a specific portfolio in a period of time. After the mid-1990s, VaR practically became the standard on risk assessment in many financial institutes. More recently the estimating tail risk using extreme value theory (EVT) became an important approach due to the possibility of capturing with precision the outer limits of the returns. Hence, it is far superior to the normal distribution curve which has too thin of tails to capture the market overreactions commonly found in financial markets. We made use of the EVT-VaR approach to analyze the selected portfolios risks.
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Survey of validated osteoporosis risk assessment tools in Brazil

Survey of validated osteoporosis risk assessment tools in Brazil

A survey of scientific publications was carried out in the Medline and Lilacs databases of the Virtual Health Library (VHL) and in the Capes journal portal, aiming to identify the validated risk assessment tools for osteoporosis in Brazil. The criteria for inclusion of articles were: publications available online, in Portuguese or English and published between 2005 and 2016. We excluded studies describing tools not evaluated for the Brazilian population. The descriptors used were: osteoporosis, risk factors, risk assessment and hip fractures. After the evaluation of the articles, three tools (Osteorisk, Sapori and Frax) were identified that served as basis for the creation of the app.
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Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

The third methodological approach to environmental risk asses- sment is developed by the U.S. Agency for Environmental Protection, "U.S. EPA". This model primarily involves the implementation of environ- mental risk assessment under the conditions of anthropogenic impact on environment, without aiming at solving problems of natural environmen- tal risks, although this methodology can be applied in this environment segment as well. The methodology gives a clear distinction between a scientific (phase of estimation) and a non-scientific (planning) part of as- sessment. The phases of estimation given by this model are: problem formulation, risk analysis and risk characterization.
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Methodology for environmental risk assessment associated with the use of veterinary medicinal products

Methodology for environmental risk assessment associated with the use of veterinary medicinal products

At this point, it is important to make use of all available documentation relevant to the environmental risk assessment of the product. This includes physico-chemical data, relevant pharmacological toxicological and toxicokinetic studies and information on degradability or persistence of the active ingredient under relevant conditions.

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Applicability of Fisk Risk Assessment (FISK) to ornamental species

Applicability of Fisk Risk Assessment (FISK) to ornamental species

Fishes are among the most introduced vertebrates in the world (10) and the aquarium industry is currently one of the main vectors for introductions of non-native fishes (11). Despite research on fish invasions is increasing and the urgency to identify new potential invaders brought by main vectors is clear, risk assessment of non-native fishes remains limited (12). The identification of which species pose the highest invasiveness risk is often difficult (13) and the available screening tools must be adapted to provide reliable information for particular species groups (14). Screening of invasion risk for ornamental fishes is challenging, given ecological knowledge is often limited and highly efficient screening tools are thus required to evaluate these species. Nevertheless, this would greatly aid managers in determining the potential risks presented by ornamental species (15) and developing pro-active measures to avoid and control their introduction in the wild (16).
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Risk assessment for perioperative pressure injuries

Risk assessment for perioperative pressure injuries

Objectives: to evaluate and classify patients according to the Risk Assessment Scale for Perioperative Pressure Injuries; verify the association between sociodemographic and clinical variables and the risk score; and identify the occurrence of pressure injuries due to surgical positioning. Method: observational, longitudinal, prospective and quantitative study carried out in a teaching hospital with 278 patients submitted to elective surgeries. A sociodemographic and clinical characterization questionnaire and the Risk Assessment Scale for Perioperative Pressure Injuries were used. Descriptive, bivariate and logistic regression analyses were applied. Results: the majority of patients (56.5%) presented a high risk for perioperative pressure injury. Female sex, elderly group, and altered body mass index values were statistically significant (p < 0.05) for a higher risk of pressure injuries. In 77% of the patients, there were perioperative pressure injuries. Conclusion: most of the participants presented a high risk for development of perioperative decubitus ulcers. The female sex, elderly group, and altered body mass index were significant factors for increased risk. The Risk Assessment Scale for Perioperative Pressure Injuries allows the early identification of risk of injury, subsidizing the adoption of preventive strategies to ensure the quality of perioperative care.
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Risk assessment of atmospheric emissions using machine learning

Risk assessment of atmospheric emissions using machine learning

AQ-type learning presents many important characteristics for this type of problems. First of all, it generates attribu- tional rules that involve conditions that may include inter- nal disjunctions of attribute values, ranges of values, inter- nal conjunctions of attributes, and other constructs. Such conditions make the representational language very expres- sive, potentially learning rules that better describe the com- plex interactions between the meteorological attributes and the clusters of simulations. Another characteristics of AQ- type learning is that given a set of examples, it can gener- ate multiple rulesests depending on the program parameters. The rulesets may be highly general (which may be desirable to identify general areas of potential risks), or highly specific (which may be more desirable to identify high risk facilities), or have an intermediate degree of generality.
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ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT OF FRESHWATER SEDIMENTS IN BRAZIL

ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT OF FRESHWATER SEDIMENTS IN BRAZIL

ed sediment is transported in the urban environment, particularly from the perspective of Brazilian cities. In the São Paulo state, sediment quality has been mon- itored by CETESB since 2002. A comprehensive and sys- tematic study of sediment was needed, because some studies have indicated that several rivers and reservoirs in the state have relatively high concentrations of con- taminants at levels likely to affect the benthic communi- ty. However, one of the biggest issues regarding sediment quality assessment in Brazil is that most of the laborato- ry tests has been standardized for regions of temperate climate, which imposes some constraints for apply this frameworks in tropical areas, especially for in situ testing. Brazilian sediment quality criteria to orientate dredged material management are given by the Resolution no. 454/2012 from CONAMA, but such values were estab- lished based on the American and Canadian SQGs and do not consider the toxicity tests and the contaminant bioaccumulation (CONAMA, 2012). Some examples of the quality reference values for metals in dredged ma- terials are given in Table 2.
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Gender differences in risk assessment

Gender differences in risk assessment

Interestingly, some of the strongest support for the af- fect as feeling viewpoint has come from findings of a negative correlation between people’s assessments of the benefits associated with an activity or investment and the risks of that activity (Alhakami & Slovic, 1994; Fin- ucane, Alhakami, Slovic & Johnson, 2000; Ganzach, 2001). For investments, at least, this reflects an erro- neous belief, since one of the most elementary facts un- covered in the field of finance is a positive relationship between the riskiness of an investment and its expected return — not a negative one. It should be noted, however, that the correlations examined in the present study were computed over individuals, whereas the papers just cited reported correlations across situations. It is conceivable that if one sampled broadly from the universe of poten- tial activities that people commonly engage in, our sub- jects too might have rated as more enjoyable whichever activities they viewed as having potential bad outcomes low in severity and probability. If so, this too might be erroneous, since it stands to reason that just as invest- ments must offer a high expected return as compensation for risk, risky activities must, to attract participants, of- fer some form of pleasure and/or aesthetic experience as compensation (thus, few people seem inclined to engage in night-time bungee jumping or playing catch with live munitions).
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The Patient- And Nutrition-Derived Outcome Risk Assessment Score (PANDORA): Development of a Simple Predictive Risk Score for 30-Day In-Hospital Mortality Based on Demographics, Clinical Observation, and Nutrition.

The Patient- And Nutrition-Derived Outcome Risk Assessment Score (PANDORA): Development of a Simple Predictive Risk Score for 30-Day In-Hospital Mortality Based on Demographics, Clinical Observation, and Nutrition.

Not surprisingly the fit tends to be poorer for very large predicted mortalities, which is only covered by a limited number of patients. Consequently, the score is somehow dominated by patients with moderate to low risk. It is worth noting that for high predicted mortalities an in- crease of one point in the PANDORA score is associated with a much larger increase in pre- dicted mortality than a one point increase for low predicted mortality. This also aggravates the problems of achieving a perfect fit in high risk patients. One of the problems of such scores is stability over time. By our way of constructing the PANDORA score we only included variables that significantly contributed to the models developed separately in each of the four calendar years 2006 to 2009. A further indication for stability over time is the good fit in the delayed ex- ternal validation sample from the year 2012.
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Credit risk assessment: Evidence from banking industry

Credit risk assessment: Evidence from banking industry

Ruintan (2005) measured the credit risk among corporate clients of Keshavarzi Bank using the logic regression method. She found that among the financial rates, cash and current rates had the most important part in dividing the clients based on the credit risk, and the logit regression was very efficient in evaluating the credit risk of clients. Sabzevari and Noorbakhsh (2006) evaluated the corporate clients of Karafarin Bank, using the logistic scoring model and non-parametric method of CART. The resulted indicated that both models had almost the same predicting accuracy for all cases, but for small cases, CART was more accurate. Tehrani and Fallah Shams (2006) designed and examined the efficiency of credit risk model using the linear probability, logistic and artificial neural networks models. The findings indicated that the relation between the variables in credit risk predicting model had not been linear and the most efficiency was associated with the artificial neural networks and logistic models, respectively. Isazade and Mansoori (2008) used the neural network model to estimate credit risk and capacity of Tejarat Bank. They suggested that the neural network model was more efficient than the traditional models in predicting the credit risk of clients.
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