ABSTRACT. – Climatechange – betweencostsandbenefits. At global and regional levels the effects of climatechange start to show up. While some of the countries make efforts to alleviate these effects and to find solutions, others are facing economic or political restrains that prevent them in applying the principle of common responsibility. The complex social, economic, and environmental implications of climate change’s effects focused a growing part of research on the analysis of costsandbenefits. Although controversial, one of the methods used – the cost-benefit analysis – revealed that in most of the cases the prevention costs are lower than the costs of inaction. Prevention measures bring benefits by anticipating the impact and minimizing the risks for ecosystems and economy. The paper presents in its first part the controversies regarding the cost-benefit analysis, and continues, in the second part, with estimations on costsandbenefits of certain policy instruments that target emission reduction.
Figure 4 also shows that the capture and destruction of the CFC bank leads to a greater ozone change than the other chlorine- and bromine-containing ODS cases after about 2045, with an integrated ozone impact slightly larger than that of the Halon bank case from 2011–2100 (see Table 1). Even though the importance of these two banks to ozone is calculated to be similar, the Environmental Protection Agency estimates that in the United States of America the fraction of Halon banks that are technically accessible for capture and destruction (>95%) is much greater than the fraction of the CFC banks (<10%) (Montzka et al., 2008). Accessibility is an important factor in determining the cost of bank capture. We make this point to emphasize that our calculations only indicate the importance of various emission sources to ozone andclimate forcing; we make no estimate of the costs or even the relative costs of reducing future emis- sions.
We observed that biofuels projects applied for registration mainly when CER prices were high, possibly due to the correlation between global energy and carbon prices. Forestation projects were also pursued mainly when CER prices were high, possibly reflecting greater cost or uncertainty surrounding this project type or the regions in which it occurs, especially Sub-Saharan Africa. Industrial gas emission reduction projects appeared to be less sensitive to CER price levels, whereas wind power projects were generally registered when CER credit prices were low. This might indicate that neither of these project types are very sensitive to the CER prices, and can remain profitable even at low CER price levels – possibly due to profitable co-products, subsidies or low deployment costs. The relationship between CER prices and host regions appears to be greatly affected by the types of projects that are pursued in each of the regions: the high CER credit price level of Latin American projects reflects the dominance of biofuels and methane-related projects in the region, the price insensitivity of Middle East/Northern Africa reflects the large share of industrial gas emission reduction projects, and the large variety of projects in Asia means that there is a mix of projects that applied for registration at all price levels. The analysis of project scale shows that a low CER price level is clearly associated with larger scale projects and vice versa.
Application of STRATUM in European cities is not straight- forward because data requirements are intensive and developed for U.S. cities. STRATUM’s beneﬁt calculations are based on tree growth, geographic, and economic data for 16 different U.S. refer- ence cities. Each reference city represents a region wherein climateand the types of tree species are relatively similar. The 16 U.S. regions were aggregated from 45 Sunset climate zones (Brenzel, 2001). The reference city in each region had an updated computer inventory of street trees for sampling and reliable information on program expenditures. A sample of approximately 30–70 randomly selected trees from each of the most abundant species was sur- veyed in each reference city to (1) establish relations between tree age, size, leaf area and biomass, (2) estimate growth rates, and (3) collect other data on tree health, site conditions, and sidewalk dam- age. At the same time, geographic and economic information were collected as input to numerical models of tree beneﬁts.
In order to examine systems approaches to health/environment co-benefits in cities, this paper provides a systematic discussion of the linkages betweenclimatechange, health and wellbeing, and governance in the urban context, collecting and summarizing relevant literature in these areas. However, owing to the combined breadth of these topics, the authors acknowledge that this is neither a comprehensive literature review nor a meta-analysis with specific search criteria and keywords commonly found in the public health literature. The topics under consid- eration are very broad and may be discussed in publications that do not necessarily feature the relevant keywords (for example, many discus- sions on urban energy are in publications analyz- ing energy generation more generally). Indeed, such a review would be prohibitively long for this publication. We therefore suggest this paper be taken as a conceptual analysis rather than a sys- tematic review.
The notothenioid fish are an excellent model for assessing the role of lifestyle in influencing demographic history. The origins of modern notothenioid fish date from Southern Ocean cool- ing during the Oligocene [31,32] when the Eocene fish fauna went extinct. This allowed the subsequent occupation of “vacant” niches by ancestral notothenioid fish that avoided freezing because of antifreeze glycoproteins (AFGP) (reviewed in Eastman & McCune ) . These notothenioid fish radiated during the Miocene from a putative benthic ancestor without a swim bladder into an array of species strikingly diverse in morphology and lifestyle. A pelagic lifestyle seems to have arisen independently several times in the suborder [26,34] indicative of significant plasticity in body size and conformation. Notothenioid fish comprise closely related, monophyletic, and ecologically diverse species with a polyphyletic distribution of traits (includ- ing cryopelagic, pelagic and benthic lifestyles). These characteristics make them suited for com- parative studies and minimize the effect of “phylogenetic constraints” sensu Gould and Lewontin  i.e. the risk that the differences among species result from intrinsic characteris- tics of particular phylogenetic lineages rather than the presence of some potentially adaptive trait.
under the EU’s influence, the country developed its climatechange policy further and also strongly invested in renewable energy production. Several national programs, plans, and strategies have been set up; however, decisions have lacked consistency, and until 2011 greenhouse gas emissions continued above the national Kyoto Protocol target. The financial and economic crises that led the country to apply for assistance from the International Monetary Fund and the European Union in 2011 compelled it to adopt severe austerity measures, which have also affected the implementation of climatechange policies. Nonetheless, the economic slowdown has contributed to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions and in 2012 the country reached its Kyoto targets (Carvalho, Schmidt, Santos, & Delicado, 2014 ).
In this situation the past one-thing-at-a-time approach is of limited value. What is needed now is a new set of ethical principles that focuses on interactions and processes related to unavoidable changes rather than protection of a status quo. Careful attention has to be paid to the interaction between water and groups of organisms to ensure that their role in ecosystem dynamics and their functional role for human wellbeing is guarded properly. This introduces an ethical dimension to the ecohydrological landscape management process, or an ethics of process management for sustainability. It requires an improved understanding, often site-specific, of the inter-dependencies between hydrological flows and ecosystem processes and dynamics. No successful management can be implemented without flexible institutions (norms and rules) and organisations that can monitor, interpret and shape ecohydrological change (Berkes and Folke, 1998). Principles for sustainable management of the life support system in line with the directions indicated above may be based on Ostrom’s (1990) seven principles for self-regulation of human systems. Basically, these comprise the development of a proper coping capability that covers three main conditions:
The first factor is the change in sea surface temperature (SST) over the North Atlantic. Since the North Atlantic is a major source of precipitable water in the atmosphere over Europe, differences in SST changes may affect the precipita- tion over Europe. In Fig. 18 we show the SST changes over the North East Atlantic plotted against the simulated global mean temperature changes. We see marked differences be- tween the models. GFDL2.1 simulates very weak increases in SST, which are 2 ◦ C less than the global mean tempera- ture changes simulated by this model. The SST change for MIROChi is similar to its global mean change. This indicates that for MIROChi moisture supply by the North Atlantic can keep up with the pace of global warming, while for GFDL2.1 this is not the case. The other models take a middle position between the two extremes. Changes in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulations may play a role here (Hazeleger, 2006; Schmittner et al., 2005), but relations between such changes and SST changes have not been firmly established. A detailed analysis of the origins of the differences between SST simulations would certainly be worthwhile, but falls out- side the scope of this paper.
In the accessible literature, we did not find any comprehensive calculations of the direct and indirect costs of imported malaria in high-income countries. The cases of fifteen soldiers in the British army who required intensive hospital therapy because of malaria infection was described. Out of 24,600 British troops stationed in Germany, approximately 800 were occupationally exposed to malaria during 2001, and 800 during 2002. There were three imported malaria cases in British soldiers during 2001 and 12 during 2002. Two soldiers (one with Plasmodium vivax, the other with Plasmodium falciparum infection) required intensive hospital therapy. The median length of hospital inpatient stay was seven days (for Plasmodium vivax infection) and 8.5 days (for Plasmodium falciparum). The direct treatment costs of the hospitalizations totaled 27,760 euros. All the soldiers in that study were prescribed mefloquine for malaria chemoprophylaxis 4 .
This work provides a high-resolution appraisal of future developments in streamflow drought in Europe accounting for the major drivers of possible changes in the temporal and spatial availability of water. The present paper builds on the work of Feyen and Dankers (2009) but shows several inno- vative aspects, which overcome some limitations identified in previous works. First, we present an in-depth analysis of the robustness and significance of the projected changes in streamflow drought, simulated by the LISFLOOD hydrolog- ical model (van der Knijff et al., 2010), in view of uncer- tainty in future climate developments. To this end we as- sess changes in low-flow conditions in Europe throughout the 21st century using a large ensemble (12 members) of bias- corrected climate projections (IPCC SRES A1B) from the EU FP6 ENSEMBLES project (van der Linden and Mitchell, 2009). In addition, we assess the impact of intensive wa- ter use on streamflow drought conditions by incorporating projections of water consumption under an A1B-consistent scenario (Economy First – EcF) from the EU FP6 SCENES project (Flörke et al., 2011). Finally, we also validate the es- timation of streamflow indices against a very large validation set (446 stations across Europe) and evaluate the extreme value fitting uncertainty at these stations. In the following sections, the different steps of the methodology are detailed, followed by a discussion of the results and conclusions.
Aquaponics represents nowadays an innovation in agricultural systems of production and supply food which combines aquaculture fish production with hydroponic production of vegetables, that can contribute to feed an increasing population at the world level, with less inputs in a sustainable way of production and supply. Besides the high development in this scientific area, there are not still enough commercial firms at European level, that allow us to know how this activity is evolving in society in general, as well as, to know the role played by Aquaponics Hub from COST FA 1305 - The EU Aquaponics Hub - Realising Sustainable Integrated Fish and Vegetable Production for the EU is supported for Horizon 2020 (The EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation, 2017), in promoting the development of this activity in Europe. That occurs because aquaponics is a new and innovative production system in development. Thus, we used Google Trends data and a quantitative methodology, namely, multivariate analysis and econometric models in order to nowcast and forecast new insights about the importance, the role and the new trends about aquaponics in European countries. The results show an interesting development and an increasing trend in aquaponics search terms as a proxi of aquaponics development in Europe, mainly in all the European countries belonging to this Hub. However, we conclude that there is still a long way to go for aquaponics to become a commercial activity at economic level. Hence, public European and national decision-makers are urged to be more concerned about legislation and the allocation of funds for research and for the commercial investment of companies and for their promotion and development. The paper reviews these discussions, maps scientific and technological progress over the aquaponics in Europe and presents new ideas on how to foster and accelerate scientific and technological advancement in aquaponics in Europe and across the world.
The greatest challenge is to acknowledge that it is simply impossible for the most vulnerable populations to “adapt” to the future impacts of climatechange. Moreover, some small insular countries will have to be relocated onto higher ground. Sea barriers and flood defenses are practically useless when their islands are already almost underwater. Irma gained intensity when over the sea, where water temperatures were 0.5 to 1.25°C above average. Atlantic hurricanes have been gaining strength, according to research showing this trend throughout the last 30 years. A study about the issue led by James Elsner, from University of Florida, was published by the journal Nature in 2008, showing how Atlantic hurricanes have been getting stronger as time went by, and how their strength is increasing faster than what it did 25 years ago. Other studies, such as that published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters in 2012 by C.M. Kishtawal, from Ahmedabad Space Research Center in India, confirms this trend.
Climatechange also affects trophic interaction at various levels in an intricate complex manner. In many cases higher temperatures have been shown to speed up plant development and lead to earlier switching to the next ontogenetic stage (Menzel and Fabian, 1999; Badeck et al., 2004). Menzel and Dose (2005) show that timing of cherry blossom in Japan was highly variable among years, but no clear trends were discerned from1400 to 1900. A statistically significant change point is first seen in the early 1900s,withsteady advancements since 1952.Based on its well-known variation with the annual course of weather elements, plant phenology might be expected to be one of the most responsive and easily observable traits in nature that change in response to climate (Badeck et al., 2004).suggest that this ontogeny–phenology landscape provides a flexible method to document changes in the relative phenologies of interacting species, examine the causes of these phenological shifts, and estimate their consequences for interacting species (Yang and Rudolf, 2010). But the plethora of records also stems from the strong sociological significance of the change of the seasons, particularly in high-latitude countries affected (Parmesan, 2006).
The standard approach adopted by the Intergovernmen- tal Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC) to reduce uncertain- ties in GCM projections of regional climatechange is to use multiple realizations from an ensemble of GCMs, assum- ing that model diversity provides some measure of model error (Christensen et al., 2007). Such an ensemble analy- sis is not practical for GCM-CTM studies of air quality be- cause of the computational expense associated with chem- istry and aerosol microphysics. An alternative is to focus on GCM projections of the meteorological modes determining air quality. A resource for this purpose is the World Cli- mate Research Programme’s (WCRP’s) Coupled Model In- tercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset of 2000–2100 climatechange simulations produced by the ensemble of GCMs contributing to the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4).
The benefits of the circular economy accrue to both developed and developing countries. Yet, the size of the “prize” which countries could obtain by adopting circular economy strategies is still a hot subject of research (Tearfund, 2016). Potential economic gains are estimated at over a trillion dollars a year in material cost savings (Hansen and Mulhall, 2012, EMF, 2014).Recent assessments for India, Laos and the EU estimated savings of USD 624 billion and EUR 320 billion respectively (UNCTAD, 2016; EMF, 2017). Greater circularity could also reduce depreciation of physical capital in the economy - creating income and jobs in the process.Less directly, countries may also tap into diversification and upgrading opportunities linked to the transition, giving birth to new forms of comparative advantage.
Abstract. A growing recent literature argues that the adaptation to the climatechange depends on the perceptions that the stakeholders have on potential effects of the climatechangeand the possibilities to counteract these effects. This study focuses on forestry engineers’ perceptions on climate changes and adapting measures. A number of 76 semi-structured interviews were conducted with forest engineers from three counties in North-Eastern Ro- mania (Suceava, Neam ţ and Botoşani). The results show that the forest engi- neers perceived as climatechange-related vulnerabilities: the occurrence of drought, the risk of increased windfall, and the insects attacks. However, the climatechange-related risk is ranked only as a fifth threat on forest ecosys- tems stability, far behind the political control over forest administration and law implementation, incoherence of the legislative frame, un-appropriate legislation for private forests and illegal logging. We conclude that climatechange adaptation is not a priority of forest management, which is correlat- ed with the fact that more than half of the respondents estimates the impact of climatechange on forests as being small or moderate, while one third of the respondents clearly manifest the preference for non-adapting behavior. Keywords forest ecosystem, climatechange-related risks, forest management adaptation to climatechange, forest engineers’ perceptions, North-Eastern Romania.
and an accretion rate of 1.0 metre per year. The study revealed that high rate and magnitude of erosion occur at the eastern portion of the coast and this is due to the increased urbanization of the area which disrupts sediment transport to the coast. Findings revealed that in the next 10 and 20 years, the Winneba shoreline will be displaced by a maximum distance of 115 metres with an average uncertainty of ±7.3. Findings from the analyses of the physical effects of shoreline changeand its implication on the community revealed that majority of the infrastructures along the coast have been affected by erosion. Findings therefore, suggest a possible total collapse of these infrastructures and the resultant displacement of people due to the observed rate of erosion and the projected land displacement along the coast. Findings again indicate that erosion has affected the vegetation especially the coconut plantation along the coast and this has reduced their aesthetic value. Findings finally revealed water supply, availability and usage problems in the coastal zone of Winneba due to the extension of sea water into coastal freshwaters and underground aquifers, which has made these inland waters unsafe for domestic and agricultural use. The study concludes that there is climatechange incidence in Winneba and the resultant impacts are enormous. There is the need for the strengthening of mitigation and adaptation strategies in order to address this problem. This study therefore, recommends mitigation and adaptation measures such as climatechange impact awareness creation and environmental education, buffering of the shoreline zones, implementing ecosystem recovery approaches, decentralization of management policies and enforcement coastal management policies, incorporation of community perception with institutional knowledge and the intensification of coastal zone research.