[PDF] Top 20 A monthly indicator of Brazilian GDP. The Brazilian business cycle and growth cycle

... These results suggest that the estimated monthly indicator can be used to forecast GDP and to monitor the state of the Brazilian economy in real time.. KEY WORDS: Busines[r] ... See full document

... Because of these results, we believe that the strategy we chose in this paper to construct a long span time-series for the Brazilian coincident indicator was the best ...Despite ... See full document

... Thus, the Committee identified three recessions in the euro area for the period examined, from the third quarter of the year 1974 to the first quarter of 1975, from ... See full document

... to the totality of credit operations and commercial ...leasing. The loan loss provision was determined based on the information provided by Banco Central do Brasil (Central Bank ... See full document

... date and analyze the Brazilian busi- ness and growth ...define the different phases of cyclical economic fluctuations underlying real Brazilian ...production. ... See full document

... with the exception to the work of Contador (1977) and Contador and Ferraz (1999), research on coincident and leading indices of economic activity is fairly young ... See full document

... tackled the problem by the use of Bridge Equations, as defined by Clements and Galvão (2008) and Kuzin, Marcellino and Schumacher ...by the European Central Bank can be ... See full document

... model of new Keynesian nature for monetary policy feedback in Brazil. The nonlinear Taylor rule for interest rate changes con- siders gaps and dynamics of GDP growth and ... See full document

... business cycle (Knoop, 2010). These are presented as follows. Business cycles are not ...cyclical. The term business cycle is a misnomer, because it implies that recessions ... See full document

... McConnell and Perez-Quiros (2000) have found evidence of a struc- tural break in the volatility of ...U.S. GDP growth towards stabilization in the first quarter of ... See full document

... that the indicator correctly signaled important changes in the direction of economic activity in Brazil in recent years, such as the pick- up in growth after the 2008 ... See full document

... range of developing economies does not confirm the business cycle synchronization hypothesis for GDP in the context of increasing international trade and financial ... See full document

... in the past decade, emphasizing how the country has risen to become one of the richest economies in the world and a global ...about the country's apparent economic success ... See full document

... in the euro area (Hofmann and Remsperger 2005). Firstly, GDP growth in one country has positive output spillover effects on other countries, which contributes to the reduction of ... See full document

... For the U.S., the most educated estimate of economic-activity turning points is embodied in the binary variable announced by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee: ... See full document

... contributions. The …rst is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see ... See full document

... satisfy the …rst condition, later checking which of them satisfy the second ...considered the …rst two series that represent monthly economic activity – Industrial Production, labelled ... See full document

... reports of diffi culties faced by doctors and the pharmaceutical industry to establish criteria to defi ne female sexual ...criteria of evaluation are regulated by the functioning ... See full document

... In the context of the European and Monetary Union (EMU) and of the broader setting of the European Union (EU) itself, the existence of a higher ... See full document

... to the Logistics Performance Index – LPI 2014 (World Bank), Brasil ranks at the 65th position among 160 countries (in 2012, it ranked 45th among 155 ...Considering the general quality of ... See full document