Land Use Change in Brazil due to Ethanol Production – Indirect Impacts
5.3 Exercise on likely drivers on land use change
This section reports the analysis developed aiming at identifying direct drivers acting on deforestation in the states of Pará and Mato Grosso. The methodology is based on the analysis of correlation in an attempt to identify direct and indirect impacts of sugarcane expansion areas on natural land and food production.
Data basis was compiled from different sources (e.g., IBGE, CONAB, CEPEA, IEA, INPE, MAPA, FNP, etc.), for the harvests 1999-2000 to 2005-2006.
5.3.1 Deforestation in the state of Pará
Pará is the state with the largest deforestation rate in the Amazon region. Deforestation in Pará is represented by the deforestation figures in a sample of 30 municipalities that had the highest deforestation areas in 2006. These municipalities were chosen based on INPE (2007); they are listed in Table B.1, Annex B. Following, the set of municipalities were analysed according to different land uses, such as cattle ranching and production of cassava, corn, rice, soybeans and sugarcane. The analysis included timber trade at the end. The sample of 30 municipalities covers 47% of the state area and 58% of the deforested area in Pará, as shown in Table 5.1.
Table 5.1 Sample of 30 municipalities regarding the whole state of Pará – 2006
Sample Pará Sample/Pará (%)
Area (1,000 ha) 59,013 125,318 47
Deforested area (1,000ha) 13,793 23,599 58
Sources: IBGE (2008), INPE (2007)
Based on data of INPE (2007) and IBGE (2008) it was possible to identify new land uses in the set of 30 municipalities with large deforestation in 2006. Results are presented in Table 5.2. It can be seen that from 13.79 Mha deforested up to 2006 in these 30 municipalities, the destination of 8.36 Mha can be identified as due to new areas for expansion of different crops and also for cattle breeding. All crops considered had an insignificant area growth regarding the total accumulated area that was deforested. On the other hand, the enlargements of pasturelands explain the destination of 57% of the area made available through deforestation. The destination of almost 40% of the deforested area cannot be explained by the uses listed in Table 5.2.
It is clear that other agricultural activities could have enlarged, but it is unlikely that small activities could explain the occupation of such large area. The only likely land use able to explain this gap seems to be deforestation for timber activities on native forest, together with charcoal production using non log forest (residues). These areas could have been partially or totally abandoned after the clear cut, either because legal or economic constraints for pasturing or cropping.
Table 5.2 New land uses and their shares regarding deforested areas in 2006 – set of 30 municipalities in state of Pará
Crops/uses Area (1,000 ha) Share (%)
Corn 181.1 1.3
Cassava 106.7 0.8
Beans 22.9 0.2
Rice 127.8 0.9
Sugarcane 8.1 0.1
Soybeans 51.6 0.4
Pastures 7,865.3 57.0
Others crops (uses) + timber 5,429.5 39.4
Sources: IBGE (2008), INPE (2007)
Also considering the set of 30 municipalities as representative of recent tendencies in Pará, some correlations were analysed aiming at identifying the main drivers of deforestation. Results are presented in Table 5.3, always taking accumulated deforested area from 2000 to 2006 as the dependent variable. Among the results presented, only the enlargement of pasturelands could be understood as a direct driver of deforestation; in this case the correlation coefficient was estimated as 90.8%.
Cattle prices have a negative strong correlation (-98.9%) regarding deforested areas, suggesting retention of cattle at the field due to price reduction in that period. Deforestation is also strongly correlated with cattle herd (90.3%), reinforcing this hypothesis. Compared to Brazil, the rate of cattle female slaughter in Pará is traditionally lower, and it was even reduced in the period which can be explained by the necessity of retaining cattle at the field, as well as to foster calf production.
Factors such as reduction of world cattle herd, increase in domestic and external demand of cattle meat, and increase in cattle exports, play important role as heaters of the market. The results obtained for the correlation coefficients are in line with this hypothesis.
Based on the hypothesis that timber trade and charcoal production are important drivers of deforestation in Brazil, the following correlations were tested. A good and positive correlation (95.3%) is observed between deforestation in Pará and charcoal domestic demand; the correlation between deforestation in Pará and iron and steel production in Brazil is not good enough (67.1%) but could be considered anyhow73. Furthermore, the correlation between deforestation in Pará and sawn wood exports is good enough (82.6) and can be seen as another evidence.
73 According to Monteiro et al (2005), forest residues from 900,000 ha, plus 82,000 ha of whole forest, are annually used for charcoal production in the Amazon region mostly for ten cast iron industries close to Carajás railway corridor.
Table 5.3 Correlation results – accumulated deforestation in Pará (PA) versus likely drivers related to cattle ranch and pasturelands (explanatory variables) – 2000 to 2006
Likely drivers Observation R (%) Effect on LUC
Pastureland area (conversion) in Pará 90.8 Direct
Cattle herd in PA 92.3 Indirect
Cattle female slaughter in PA/BR -72.1 Indirect
Cattle slaughter in PA/BR 51.2 Indirect
Cattle prices in Brazil -98.9 Indirect
Cattle meat, domestic demand in Brazil 62.5 Indirect
Cattle meat, external demand 93.1 Indirect
World cattle herd -86.8 Indirect
Cattle meat exports in Brazil 99.5 Indirect
Sawn wood exports in Brazil 82.6 Indirect
Charcoal domestic demand (native forests) in Brazil 95.3 Indirect
Iron/steel domestic production in Brazil 67.1 Indirect
Notes: It is estimated that the enlargement of pasturelands could directly explain about 57% of the deforestation (see Table 5.2). It is estimated that timber and charcoal production could explain at least about 40% of the deforestation (see Table 5.2).
Sources: IBGE (2008); INPE (2007); CONAB (2008), Agrianual (2008); CEPEA (2008); IEA (2008); MAPA (2008); Anualpec (2007).
In summary, there are strong evidences that deforestation in Pará is highly correlated with enlargement of pasturelands and also with activities such timber trade, charcoal production and sawn wood trade.
5.3.2 Deforestation in Mato Grosso
The state of Mato Grosso has the highest cattle herd and the largest soybean area in Brazil. As presented in Chapter 4, the deforested area in Mato Grosso from 1996 to 2006 was very high, and so the enlargements of the pasturelands and soybean area.
The same procedure described in the previous section, regarding deforestation in Pará, was applied in case of Mato Grosso. A sample of 30 municipalities was defined based on INPE (2007); the list of municipalities and some information about them are presented in Table B.2, Annex B.
Following, based on IBGE (2008) those municipalities were analysed according to different land uses (cattle ranching, and production of cotton, corn, sorghum, rice, soybean and sugarcane). This sample of municipalities covers 41% of the total area in Mato Grosso and 57.5% of the deforested area (see Table 5.4). Deforestation appears as 21% of the overall area and 30% of the sample area. Thus, it is probably inside the limits set for Legal Reserve in this region.
Table 5.4 Sample of 30 municipalities regarding the whole state of Mato Grosso – 2006
Sample Mato Grosso Sample/MT (%)
Area (1,000 ha) 37,141 90,681 41
Deforested area (1,000ha) 10,983 19,095 57.5
Sources: IBGE (2008), INPE (2007)
Once more, following the same procedure described in the previous section, and based on data of INPE (2007) and IBGE (2008), the areas of the most important land used were identified. Results are presented in Table 5.5.
Table 5.5 New land uses and their share regarding deforested areas in 2006 – set of 30 municipalities in state of Mato Grosso
Crops/uses Area (1,000 ha) Share (%)
Corn¹ 263.4 2.4
Sorghum¹ 36.5 0.3
Cotton 48.5 0.4
Rice 306.1 2.8
Sugarcane 42.7 0.4
Soybean 1.748.0 15.9
Cattle 8.837.3 80.5
Data sources: IBGE (2008), INPE (2007)
Note: ¹ Considered as using the same area than soybean (“safrinha”)
Aiming at identifying the main drivers of deforestation in Mato Grosso, some correlations were adjusted always taking accumulated deforested area from 2000 to 2006 as the dependent variable.
Results are presented in Table 5.6. Only the enlargement of pasturelands could be understood as a direct driver of deforestation and, in this case, the correlation coefficient was estimated as 98.1%.
Thus, as expected, the correlation is strong and positive.
Accumulated deforestation and cattle price have strong and negative correlation (-98.6%), suggesting retention of cattle at the field due to price reduction in that period. This results is similar to the one obtained in the case of Pará. Comparing the results obtained for Pará (previous section) and these presented here for Mato Grosso, the same conclusions are gotten concerned direct drivers for enlargement of pasturelands (e.g., increase in domestic and external cattle meat demand, and increase in cattle exports).
Charcoal domestic demand, fostered by increase of iron and steel production, is strongly and positively correlated with accumulated deforestation in Mato Grosso. Considering that most municipalities sampled are in the borderline with Para and Amazon states, one possibility is that charcoal could be going the cast iron industries in Pará. A hypothesis is that charcoal production helps to pay deforestation costs. However, further study is required to check how production of charcoal has expanded in Mato Grosso in recent years, and its correlation with deforestation.
Table 5.6 Correlation results – accumulated deforestation in Mato Grosso (MT) versus likely drivers related pasturelands and cattle uses and markets (explanatory variables) – 2000 to 2006
Likely drivers Observation R (%) Effect on LUC
Pastureland area in MT (conversion) 98.1 Direct
Cattle herd in MT 99.0 Indirect
Cattle female slaughter in MT/BR -96.0 Indirect
Cattle slaughter in MT/BR -69.6 Indirect
Cattle prices in Brazil -98.6 Indirect
Cattle meat domestic demand in Brazil 62.5 Indirect
Cattle meat external demand 93.1 Indirect
World cattle herd -86.8 Indirect
Cattle meat exports in Brazil 99.5 Indirect
Charcoal domestic demand (native forests) in Brazil 95.2 Indirect
Iron/steel domestic production in Brazil 68.8 Indirect
Notes: It is estimated that the enlargement of pasturelands could directly explain about 80% of the deforestation (see Table 5.5).
Sources: IBGE (2008); INPE (2007); CONAB (2008); Agrianual (2008); CEPEA (2008); IEA (2008);
MAPA(2008); Anualpec(2007)
Table 5.7 Correlation results – accumulated deforestation in Mato Grosso (MT) versus likely drivers related to soybeans production and its market (explanatory variables) – 2000 to 2006
Likely drivers Observation R (%) Effects on LUC
Soybean area in MT (conversion) 98.3 Direct
Soybean domestic demand in Brazil 93.4 Indirect
Soybean external demand 96.5 Indirect
Chicken domestic demand in Brazil 99.0 Indirect
Chicken slaughter in Centre-West region 98.4 Indirect
Pork slaughter in Centre-West region 96.8 Indirect
Chicken external demand in Brazil 96.3 Indirect
Pork external demand in Brazil 88.3 Indirect
Accumulated soybean net revenue in MT 82.7 Indirect
Soybean domestic price in MT in Brazil -37.2 Indirect
Soybean external prices 44.7 Indirect
Charcoal domestic demand (native forests) in Brazil 95.2 Indirect
Iron/steel domestic production in Brazil 68.8 Indirect
Notes: It is estimated that the enlargement of soybean area could directly explain about 16% of the deforestation (see Table 5.5).
Sources: IBGE (2008); INPE (2007); CONAB (2008); Agrianual (2008); CEPEA (2008); IEA (2008); MAPA (2008); Anualpec (2007)
Soybeans production represents a direct land use conversion; the correlation between soybean area and accumulated deforested areas was calculated as 98.3%, as can be seen in Table 5.7.
Various potential indirect drivers for deforestation (i.e., direct drivers for the expansion of soybean area) were tested, and many of them have a good correlation regarding accumulated deforested areas (e.g., soybean demand, both domestic and international; chicken and pork slaughter in the Centre-West region, etc.). According to Marta (2008), soybean-crushing plants were decisive for the development of agro-clusters in Mato Grosso. In addition, the increase in pork and chicken slaughter in the Centre-West region fostered indirectly soybean meal demand and, consequently, soybean production area.
Conversely, soybean domestic prices are in the opposite direction of most analysed drivers (R = - 37.2%), which suggests that processed, transformed and exported soybean is responsible for the bulk of area enlargement.
In summary, there are strong evidences that deforestation in Mato Grosso is strongly correlated with expansion of cattle ranching and, in a small extent, with the enlargement of soybean areas.
5.3.3 Growth of sugarcane areas in state of São Paulo
In order to check if the recent expansion of sugarcane in the state of São Paulo has caused indirect impacts in other states the same procedure based on correlation analysis was applied;
main results are presented in Table 5.8
It can be seen that the growth of sugarcane area in São Paulo has a relatively strong correlation with the reduction of pasturelands in the state in the period 2000 to 2006 (88.5% and negative, as sugarcane area grows and pasturelands reduces). This issue has been analysed in Chapter 4 and one the main conclusions is that in fact sugarcane expansion is displacing pasturelands. Based on this result, a fast deductive conclusion would be that the expansion of sugarcane in São Paulo could be inducing the reduction of cattle herd in São Paulo74, consequently creating the opportunity for enlarging livestock in other states, such Mato Grosso and Pará. However, as can be seen in Table 5.8, the growth of sugarcane areas in São Paulo is even better correlated with the reduction of cattle herd in Rio Grande do Sul. Clearly there is no reason to suppose that there is a cause-effect ratio in this regard.
Table 5.8 Correlations between growth of sugarcane area in São Paulo and direct and indirect impacts – 2000 to 2006
Cases analysed R (%)
Sugarcane area in SP x Pastureland area in SP (conversion) -88.5
Sugarcane area in SP x Cattle herd in RS -98.7
Sugarcane area in SP x Bean area in SP (conversion) -83.8
Sugarcane area in SP x Bean area in RS -85.1
Deforestation in MT x Cattle herd in SP -64.3
Deforestation in PA x Cattle herd in SP -62.7
Sources: IBGE (2008); INPE (2007); CONAB (2008); Agrianual (2008); CEPEA (2008); IEA (2008); MAPA (2008); Anualpec (2007)
The relatively strong correlation between the growth of sugarcane area and the reduction of bean area in São Paulo (83.8%, and negative) could be seen as an evidence of disruptions on food supply in the state. However, the result is equivalent regarding bean area in Rio Grande do Sul and, again, there is no reason suppose a cause-effect ratio in this regard.
Finally, deforestation in Mato Grosso and in Pará are weakly and negatively correlated with cattle herd in São Paulo. The weak correlation should be seen as evidence that sugarcane is not causing indirect impacts such as deforestation in other states. However, the two results are influenced by
74 In section 4.3.1 this issue is analysed and the conclusion is that it is not the case.
the data basis of 2006 IBGE's Survey regarding cattle herds in São Paulo (see Table 4.7) that indicates reduction in the period