Evidências do efeito Moran na sincronia populacional: uma demonstração em microcosmo experimental.

ECOLOGY, BEHAVIOR AND BIONOMICS

Evidências do Efeito Moran na Sincronia Populacional: Uma Demonstração

em Microcosmo Experimental

M

S. L

-R

, I

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O.

M

, M

P. P

, J

C. N

, T

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M

, S

S. C

T

F.L.V.B. R

1_{PPG em Ecologia & Evolução, ICB, Univ. Federal de Goiás, C. postal 131, 74.001-970, Goiânia, GO} 2_{Depto. Biologia, Univ. Federal de Goiás, Campus Jataí, BR 364, km 192, zona rural, 75.801-615, Jataí, GO}

paleo_ribeiro@yahoo.com.br

Neotropical Entomology 36(5):662-669 (2007)

Evidences of Moran Effect in the Population Synchrony: A Demonstration in Experimental Microcosm

ABSTRACT - Three main causes to population synchrony are proposed: exogenous factors, dispersal and

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population dynamic

RESUMO - São propostas três causas principais para sincronia de populações: fatores exógenos, dispersão e

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sincronia de populações de Sitophilus zeamais0RWV&ROHRSWHUD&XUFXOLRQLGDHLVRODGDVHVSDFLDOPHQWH

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em diferentes escalas espaciais – continental, regional e local (Benton et al./LHEKROGet al.)RQWDLQH

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em metapopulações aumenta com a sincronia (Heino et al.

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fragmentadas no espaço (Earn et al.3RUH[HPSORR risco de extinção pode aumentar se a sincronia ocorrer sem

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Atualmente, são propostas três causas principais para sincronia de populações: fatores exógenos, dispersão e

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regionalmente e que compartilham a mesma estrutura de

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o El-Niño (Post &)RUFKKDPPHUHLQFOXLUDOWRVQtYHLV

GHÀXWXDo}HVFRUUHODFLRQDGDVQRHVSDoR%HQWRQet al01, Koenig 2002, )RQWDLQH & *RQ]DOH]

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(Heino 1998, Lande et al. %M¡UQVWDG 1HVWH

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maior que a esperada caso promovam ciclos uniformes (Ranta

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dependentes da densidade (Grenfell et al.D

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Entretanto, esses fatores provavelmente agem de forma

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sendo difícil distinguir seus efeitos separadamente em

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Material e Métodos

Biologia do organismo estudado.$VHVSpFLHVGRJrQHUR Sitophilus são popularmente chamadas de caruncho ou gorgulho dos cereais e estão entre as mais difundidas e

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et al

Os adultos de SitophilusVSSPHGHPGHPPD mm de comprimento e, em geral, são de vida longa (quatro

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As larvas se desenvolvem dentro dos grãos e apresentam

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indivíduos apresentam aumento de mortalidade em grãos

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Delineamento experimental. Os carunchos foram coletados

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a dispersão dos carunchos entre populações, mas permitir a

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ressaltar que todas as etapas do experimento, tanto de seleção dos indivíduos e recipientes, quanto dos tratamentos aos quais

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A temperatura e umidade relativa foram registradas em cada tratamento durante todo o experimento, com as caixas

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Análise dos dados2VGDGRVRULJLQDLVGHDEXQGkQFLDGDV

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Posteriormente, foram ajustados modelos autoregressivos, separadamente, para os dados temporais de cada população (ver Ranta et al..RHQLJ%XRQDFFRUVLet al. Os resíduos dos modelos autoregressivos de primeira ordem

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desvios padrão em cada tratamento, considerando toda a

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os coeficientes de correlação de Pearson e Spearman (Buonaccorsiet alHQWUHWRGDVDVSRSXODo}HVGHQWUR e entre tratamentos, usando os resíduos dos modelos

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populacionais, maior o coeficiente de correlação (mais

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sincronia entre as populações dentro e entre tratamentos, foi construído um box-plot FRPDPpGLDHRHUURSDGUmR

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= ™;ij Yij, n

i, j = 1

onde, X_ije Y_ijVmRRVHOHPHQWRVGDVPDWUL]HV;H<DVHUHP

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Resultados

Os dois tratamentos foram mantidos durante o tempo planejado e nenhuma população se extinguiu no decorrer

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indivíduos, existe clara diferença nas taxas de crescimento

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um claro padrão de autocorrelação temporal para todas as

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de autocorrelação temporal nos resíduos após o ajuste de

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na densidade de cada população com a remoção da tendência

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mostraram-se maiores entre as populações de mesmo tratamento do que entre as populações de tratamentos

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nesse estudo correlacionaram-se de forma positiva entre os

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e negativa entre si no mesmo tratamento (temperatura

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WUDWDPHQWRVHPOkPSDGD“o&W 3 enquanto a umidade apresentou níveis mais elevados na

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Discussão

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apresentaram tendência de crescimento ao longo do tempo,

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S. zeamais$DXWRFRUUHODomRWHPSRUDOIRLVLJQL¿FDWLYDSDUDWRGDVDVSRSXODo}HV3&DGDOLQKDLQGLFDRFRPSRUWDPHQWR

GHXPDSRSXODomR

0 5 10 15 20 25

Tempo (semanas) 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Abundância (ln)

sem lâmpada com lâmpada

a

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Horizonte -1,0

-0,8 -0,6 -0,4 -0,2 0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0

Autocorrelação

sem lâmpada com lâmpada

quantificadas no experimento (temperatura e umidade

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tratamento não apresentaram autocorrelação temporal e

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ocorreram de forma aleatória e sincrônica entre tratamentos,

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contínuas normalmente levam as populações a ser menos

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e história evolutiva dos organismos (Trenham et al Byholmet al/LHEKROGet al.

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populacional em carunchos nesse sistema experimental, uma

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0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Horizonte -1,0

-0,8 -0,6 -0,4 -0,2 0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0

Autocorrelação

sem lâmpada

com lâmpada

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SC SS CC

0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9

Coeficiente de correlação

Pearson Spearman

média ± erro padrão

De acordo com o delineamento experimental, as populações

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naturais, enquanto as demais foram expostas a condições

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alterações fisiológicas nos organismos (estimulação ou

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et alSDUDSancassania berlesei0LFK$FDULQD

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via mecanismos amplamente similares nos organismos,

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de persistência de populações em um sistema experimental aumenta com a autocorrelação espaço-temporal entre as

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das seis populações expostas a regimes diferentes de oscilações

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mantendo-as com densidades mais elevadas e, portanto,

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medida que as populações crescerem, a competição por

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a pressão competitiva entre os indivíduos e, posteriormente,

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semelhantes (mesmo regime de variação na temperatura

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01 04 06 10 13 16 18 22 25 Tempo (semanas)

26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50

Temperatura (ºC)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Umidade relativa (%)

a

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Horizonte

-0,3 -0,2 -0,1 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3

Autocorrelação

b

Temp. sem lâmpada Temp. com lâmpada

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escalas espaciais, nossos resultados permitiram evidenciar a

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