E Se o Brasil Não Tivesse Adotado Câmbio Flutuante em 1999

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E Se o Brasil Não Tivesse Adotado Câmbio

Flutuante em 1999

Carlos Viana de Carvalho

André D. Vilela

E Se o Brasil Não Tivesse Adotado Câmbio Flutuante em 1999

Carlos Viana de Carvalho

André D. Vilela

Carlos Viana de Carvalho

PUC-Rio

André D. Vilela

❊ ❙❡ ♦ ❇r❛s✐❧ ◆ã♦ ❚✐✈❡ss❡ ❆❞♦t❛❞♦ ❈â♠❜✐♦ ❋❧✉t✉❛♥t❡ ❡♠ ✶✾✾✾❄

❈❛r❧♦s ❱✐❛♥❛ ❞❡ ❈❛r✈❛❧❤♦ P❯❈✲❘✐♦

❆♥❞ré ❉✳ ❱✐❧❡❧❛ ❇❛♥❝♦ ❈❡♥tr❛❧ ❞♦ ❇r❛s✐❧

◆♦✈❡♠❜r♦✱ ✷✵✶✺

❘❡s✉♠♦

❊st✐♠❛♠♦s ✉♠ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❞✐♥â♠✐❝♦✱ ❡st♦❝ást✐❝♦✱ ❞❡ ❡q✉✐❧í❜r✐♦ ❣❡r❛❧ ♣❛r❛ ❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ ❜r❛s✐❧❡✐r❛✱ ❧❡✲ ✈❛♥❞♦ ❡♠ ❝♦♥t❛ ❡①♣❧✐❝✐t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❛ tr❛♥s✐çã♦ ❞♦ s✐st❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❜❛♥❞❛s ❝❛♠❜✐❛✐s ♣❛r❛ ♦ r❡❣✐♠❡ ❞❡ ♠❡t❛s ♣❛r❛ ❛ ✐♥✢❛çã♦ ❝♦♠ ❝â♠❜✐♦ ✢✉t✉❛♥t❡✱ ♦❝♦rr✐❞❛ ❡♠ ✶✾✾✾✳ ❖ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦ ♣r♦❞✉③ ❞✐♥â♠✐❝❛s ❜❛s✲ t❛♥t❡ ❞✐st✐♥t❛s s♦❜ ♦s ❞♦✐s r❡❣✐♠❡s ♠♦♥❡tár✐♦s✳ ❈♦♥str✉í♠♦s✱ ❡♥tã♦✱ ❛❧❣✉♠❛s ❤✐stór✐❛s ❝♦♥tr❛❢❛❝t✉❛✐s ❞❛ tr❛♥s✐çã♦ ❡♥tr❡s ♦s ❞♦✐s r❡❣✐♠❡s✱ ✉t✐❧✐③❛♥❞♦ ❛s sér✐❡s ❞❡ ❝❤♦q✉❡s ❡str✉t✉r❛✐s ❡st✐♠❛❞♦s✳ ◆♦ss♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s s✉❣❡r❡♠ q✉❡ ❛ ♠❛♥✉t❡♥çã♦ ❞❛s ❜❛♥❞❛s ❝❛♠❜✐❛✐s t❡r✐❛ s✐❞♦ ♣r❛t✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ ✐♥✈✐á✈❡❧✱ ♥❛ ♠❡✲ ❞✐❞❛ ❡♠ q✉❡ ❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❥✉r♦s t❡r✐❛ q✉❡ t❡r ♣❡r♠❛♥❡❝✐❞♦ ❡♠ ♥í✈❡✐s ❡①tr❡♠❛♠❡♥t❡ ❡❧❡✈❛❞♦s ♣♦r ✈ár✐♦s tr✐♠❡str❡s ❡ ❛ ❛t✐✈✐❞❛❞❡ ❡❝♦♥ô♠✐❝❛ t❡r✐❛ ❝♦♥tr❛í❞♦ ❢♦rt❡♠❡♥t❡✳ ❆❝❡❧❡r❛r ♦ r✐t♠♦ ❞❡ ❞❡s✈❛❧♦r✐③❛çã♦ ❞❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❝â♠❜✐♦ ❛♣ós ❛ ❈r✐s❡ ❞❛ ➪s✐❛ t❡r✐❛ ♣r♦❞✉③✐❞♦ t❛①❛s ❞❡ ✐♥✢❛çã♦ ❡ ❞❡ ❥✉r♦s ♠❛✐♦r❡s ❡ ❛t✐✈✐❞❛❞❡ ❡❝♦♥ô♠✐❝❛ ✉♠ ♣♦✉❝♦ ♠❛✐s ❢r❛❝❛✳ P♦r ú❧t✐♠♦✱ ♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ s✉❣❡r❡ q✉❡ ♦ ♣r✐♠❡✐r♦ s❡♠❡str❡ ❞❡ ✶✾✾✽ ♣♦❞❡ t❡r ♦❢❡r❡❝✐❞♦ ✉♠❛ ❥❛♥❡❧❛ ❞❡ ♦♣♦rt✉♥✐❞❛❞❡ ♣❛r❛ ✉♠❛ tr❛♥s✐çã♦ s✉❛✈❡ ❡♥tr❡ ♦s ❞♦✐s r❡❣✐♠❡s ♠♦♥❡tár✐♦s✳

❈ó❞✐❣♦s ❞❡ ❝❧❛ss✐✜❝❛çã♦ ❏❊▲✿ ❊✺✷✱ ❋✹✶

P❛❧❛✈r❛s✲❝❤❛✈❡✿ P♦❧ít✐❝❛ ♠♦♥❡tár✐❛✱ ♠✉❞❛♥ç❛ ❞❡ r❡❣✐♠❡✱ ❝â♠❜✐♦ ✜①♦✱ ♠❡t❛s ♣❛r❛ ❛ ✐♥✢❛çã♦✱ ❇r❛s✐❧

∗❊st❡ ❛rt✐❣♦ é ❜❛s❡❛❞♦ ❡♠ ❱✐❧❡❧❛ ✭✷✵✶✹✮✳ ❆❣r❛❞❡❝❡♠♦s ❛ ❚✐❛❣♦ ❇❡rr✐❡❧✱ ❉✐♦❣♦ ●✉✐❧❧é♥ ❡ ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥t❡s ❞❡ s❡♠✐♥ár✐♦s ♥♦

❇❛♥❝♦ ❈❡♥tr❛❧ ❞♦ ❇r❛③✐❧✱ ■P❊❆ ❡ ♥❛ ❈♦♥❢❡rê♥❝✐❛ ✏❉❙●❊ ♠♦❞❡❧s ❢♦r ❇r❛③✐❧✿ ❙❆▼❇❆ ❛♥❞ ❜❡②♦♥❞✑ ✭❊❊❙P✱ ❛❣♦st♦ ❞❡ ✷✵✶✹✮✳ ❆s ♦♣✐♥✐õ❡s ❡①♣r❡ss❛s ♥❡st❡ ❛rt✐❣♦ sã♦ ❞♦s ❛✉t♦r❡s ❡ ♥ã♦ ♥❡❝❡ss❛r✐❛♠❡♥t❡ r❡✢❡t❡♠ ❛s ♣♦s✐çõ❡s ❞♦ ❇❛♥❝♦ ❈❡♥tr❛❧ ❞♦ ❇r❛s✐❧✳ ❊✲♠❛✐❧s✿ ❝✈✐❛♥❛❝❅❡❝♦♥✳♣✉❝✲r✐♦✳❜r✱ ❛♥❞r❡✳✈✐❧❡❧❛❅❜❝❜✳❣♦✈✳❜r✳

✶ ■♥tr♦❞✉çã♦

✏❘❛♣✐❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ❛s r❡s❡r✈❛s ❝r❡s❝❡r❛♠ ❡ ❛ ❝♦♥✜❛♥ç❛ ✈♦❧t♦✉✳ ❚❛❧✈❡③ t❡♥❤❛ s✐❞♦ ✐ss♦ q✉❡ ♥♦s ❧❡✈♦✉ ❛ ♣❡r❞❡r ♦♣♦rt✉♥✐❞❛❞❡s ♣❛r❛ r❡✈❡r ❛ q✉❡stã♦ ❝❛♠❜✐❛❧ ♥♦ ♣r✐♠❡✐r♦ q✉❛❞r✐♠❡str❡ ❞❡ ✶✾✾✽✱ q✉❛♥❞♦ ❡✈❡♥t✉❛❧♠❡♥t❡ t❡r✐❛ s✐❞♦ ♣♦ssí✈❡❧ ❢❛③ê✲❧♦✳✑ ✭❈❛r❞♦s♦✱ ✷✵✵✻✮

❆ tr❛♥s✐çã♦ ❞♦ r❡❣✐♠❡ ❞❡ ❜❛♥❞❛s ❝❛♠❜✐❛✐s ♣❛r❛ ♦ r❡❣✐♠❡ ❞❡ ♠❡t❛s ♣❛r❛ ❛ ✐♥✢❛çã♦ ❝♦♠ ❝â♠❜✐♦ ✢✉t✉❛♥t❡ ❢♦✐ ❛ ♠✉❞❛♥ç❛ ❞❡ ♣♦❧ít✐❝❛ ♠♦♥❡tár✐❛ ♠❛✐s s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛t✐✈❛ ♦❝♦rr✐❞❛ ♥♦ ❇r❛s✐❧ ❞❡s❞❡ ♦ P❧❛♥♦ ❘❡❛❧ ❡♠ ✶✾✾✹✳ ❆ ✢✉t✉❛çã♦ ♦❝♦rr❡✉ ❡♠ ♠❡✐♦ ❛ ✉♠ ❝❡♥ár✐♦ ❝♦♥t✉r❜❛❞♦✱ ❛♣ós ✉♠❛ s❡q✉ê♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ❝r✐s❡s ❡①t❡r♥❛s✱✶ ✉♠ ❛❝♦r❞♦ ✜r♠❛❞♦ ❝♦♠ ♦ ❋▼■ ❡ ❛ r❡❛❧✐③❛çã♦ ❞❡ ❡❧❡✐çõ❡s ♣r❡s✐❞❡♥❝✐❛✐s ❡♠ ♦✉t✉❜r♦ ❞❡ ✶✾✾✽✳ ❆♣ós ❢♦rt❡ ❞❡s✈❛❧♦r✐③❛çã♦ ❞♦ ❘❡❛❧ ❡♠ ♠❡❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❥❛♥❡✐r♦ ❞❡ ✶✾✾✾✱ ❝♦♠ ❝♦♥s❡q✉❡♥t❡ ❛✉♠❡♥t♦ ❞❛ ✐♥✢❛çã♦ ♥♦ ❝✉rt♦ ♣r❛③♦✱ ♦ ❇❛♥❝♦ ❈❡♥tr❛❧ ❞♦ ❇r❛s✐❧ ✭❇❈❇✮ ❡❧❡✈♦✉ ❛ t❛①❛ ❜ás✐❝❛ ❞❡ ❥✉r♦s ♣❛r❛ ✹✺✪ ❛♦ ❛♥♦✱ ✈✐s❛♥❞♦ ❡s✈❛③✐❛r ✉♠ ♣r♦❝❡ss♦ ✐♥❝✐♣✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❞❡s❛♥❝♦r❛❣❡♠ ❞❛s ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐✈❛s ❞❡ ✐♥✢❛çã♦✳ P♦st❡r✐♦r♠❡♥t❡✱ ♦ ❇❈❇ ♣❛ss♦✉ ❛ ♦♣❡r❛r s♦❜ ♦ r❡❣✐♠❡ ❞❡ ♠❡t❛s ♣❛r❛ ❛ ✐♥✢❛çã♦✱ ♦✜❝✐❛❧✐③❛❞♦ ❡♠ ❥✉♥❤♦ ❞❡ ✶✾✾✾✳

▼✉❞❛♥ç❛s ♥♦ r❡❣✐♠❡ ❞❡ ❜❛♥❞❛s ❝❛♠❜✐❛✐s✱ ✐♥❝❧✉✐♥❞♦ ❛ ♣♦ss✐❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡ ❞♦ s❡✉ ❛❜❛♥❞♦♥♦✱ ❢♦r❛♠ ♦❜❥❡t♦ ❞❡ ❞❡❜❛t❡s ✐♥t❡r♠✐♥á✈❡✐s ❞✉r❛♥t❡ s✉❛ ✈✐❣ê♥❝✐❛ ❡ ♠❡s♠♦ ❛ ✢✉t✉❛çã♦ ❞♦ ❝â♠❜✐♦ ❝♦♠ ❛❞♦çã♦ ❞♦ r❡❣✐♠❡ ❞❡ ♠❡t❛s ♣❛r❛ ❛ ✐♥✢❛çã♦ ♥ã♦ ❢♦r❛♠ ❝❛♣❛③❡s ❞❡ ♣♦r ✜♠ às ❞✐s❝✉ssõ❡s s♦❜r❡ ♦ t❡♠❛✳ ❚❡r✐❛ s✐❞♦ ✈✐á✈❡❧ ❡ ❞❡s❡❥á✈❡❧ ♠❛♥t❡r ♦ ❝â♠❜✐♦ ❝♦♥tr♦❧❛❞♦❄ ❖ q✉❡ t❡r✐❛ ❛❝♦♥t❡❝✐❞♦ ❝❛s♦ ❛ ♠✉❞❛♥ç❛ ❞❡ r❡❣✐♠❡ t✐✈❡ss❡ ♦❝♦rr✐❞♦ ♠❛✐s ❝❡❞♦❄ ◗✉❛❧ t❡r✐❛ s✐❞♦ ♦ ♠♦♠❡♥t♦ ♠❛✐s ❢❛✈♦rá✈❡❧ ♣❛r❛ ❡st❛ ♠✉❞❛♥ç❛❄

❊st❡ ❛rt✐❣♦ ❛❜♦r❞❛ ❛❧❣✉♠❛s ❞❡st❛s q✉❡stõ❡s ❝♦♠ ❜❛s❡ ❡♠ ✉♠ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❞✐♥â♠✐❝♦✱ ❡st♦❝ást✐❝♦✱ ❞❡ ❡q✉✐✲ ❧í❜r✐♦ ❣❡r❛❧ ✭✏❉❙●❊✑✮✱ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦ ♣❛r❛ ❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ ❜r❛s✐❧❡✐r❛✳ ❖ ♠♦❞❡❧♦✱ ❜❛s❡❛❞♦ ❡♠ ●❛❧í ❡ ▼♦♥❛❝❡❧❧✐ ✭✷✵✵✺✮ ❡ ❏✉st✐♥✐❛♥♦ ❡ Pr❡st♦♥ ✭✷✵✶✵✮✱ é ❡st✐♠❛❞♦ ❝♦♠ ❞❛❞♦s ❞❡ ✈❛r✐á✈❡✐s ♠❛❝r♦❡❝♦♥ô♠✐❝❛s ❞♦ t❡r❝❡✐r♦ tr✐♠❡str❡ ❞❡ ✶✾✾✺ ❛♦ s❡❣✉♥❞♦ tr✐♠❡str❡ ❞❡ ✷✵✶✸✳ ❙❡❣✉✐♥❞♦ ❈úr❞✐❛ ❡ ❋✐♥♦❝❝❤✐❛r♦ ✭✷✵✶✸✮✱ ♠♦❞❡❧❛♠♦s ❡①♣❧✐❝✐t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❛ ♠✉❞❛♥ç❛ ❞❡ r❡❣✐♠❡ ♠♦♥❡tár✐♦ ♦❝♦rr✐❞❛ ♥♦ ♣r✐♠❡✐r♦ tr✐♠❡str❡ ❞❡ ✶✾✾✾✳ P❛r❛ t❛❧✱ ♣❡r✲ ♠✐t✐♠♦s q✉❡ ♦s ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡s ❞❛ r❡❣r❛ ❞❡ ❥✉r♦s ♠✉❞❡♠ ♥❛ ♣❛ss❛❣❡♠ ❞❡ ✉♠ r❡❣✐♠❡ ♣❛r❛ ♦ ♦✉tr♦✳ ❊♠ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r✱ ❝♦♠ ❛ ❛❞♦çã♦ ❞♦ r❡❣✐♠❡ ❞❡ ♠❡t❛s ♣❛r❛ ❛ ✐♥✢❛çã♦ ❛ ♣♦❧ít✐❝❛ ❞❡ ❥✉r♦s ❞❡✐①❛ ❞❡ r❡❛❣✐r ❛ ❞❡s✈✐♦s ❞❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❝â♠❜✐♦ ♥♦♠✐♥❛❧ ❡♠ r❡❧❛çã♦ ❛ ✉♠❛ ♣❛r✐❞❛❞❡ ♣ré✲❡st❛❜❡❧❡❝✐❞❛ ❡ ♣❛ss❛ ❛ r❡s♣♦♥❞❡r ❛ ❞❡s✈✐♦s ❞❛ ✐♥✢❛çã♦ ❡♠ r❡❧❛çã♦ à ♠❡t❛✳ P♦r s✐♠♣❧✐❝✐❞❛❞❡✱ ❛ ♠✉❞❛♥ç❛ ❞❡ r❡❣✐♠❡ ♦❝♦rr❡ ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ♥ã♦ ❛♥t❡❝✐♣❛❞❛✳ ❖s ❞❡♠❛✐s ♣❛râ♠❡tr♦s ❞♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦✱ r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞♦s ❛ ♣r❡❢❡rê♥❝✐❛s✱ t❡❝♥♦❧♦❣✐❛s ❡t❝✳✱ sã♦ s✉♣♦st♦s ✐♥✈❛r✐❛♥t❡s✳ ❆♣ós ❛ ❡st✐♠❛çã♦ ❞♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦✱ r❡❝✉♣❡r❛♠♦s ♦s ❝❤♦q✉❡s ❡str✉t✉r❛✐s q✉❡ ♠♦✈❡r❛♠ ❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ ❜r❛s✐❧❡✐r❛ ❞✉r❛♥t❡ ♦ ♣❡rí♦❞♦ ❛♠♦str❛❧✱ ♦ q✉❡ ♥♦s ♣❡r♠✐t❡ s✐♠✉❧❛r ❤✐stór✐❛s ❝♦♥tr❛❢❛❝t✉❛✐s✳ ❊♠ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r✱ ❛♥❛❧✐s❛✲ ♠♦s ♦s ❡❢❡✐t♦s ❞❡ t✐♠✐♥❣s ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈♦s ♣❛r❛ ❛ ✢✉t✉❛çã♦ ❞♦ ❝â♠❜✐♦ ❡ ❛❞♦çã♦ ❞♦ r❡❣✐♠❡ ❞❡ ♠❡t❛s ♣❛r❛ ❛ ✐♥✢❛çã♦✳

❆♥t❡s ❞❡ r❡s✉♠✐r♠♦s ♦s ♣r✐♥❝✐♣❛✐s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ♦❜t✐❞♦s✱ ❝❛❜❡♠ ❛❧❣✉♠❛s r❡ss❛❧✈❛s✳ ❊♠ q✉❛❧q✉❡r ❡①❡r✲ ❝í❝✐♦ ❞❡st❛ ♥❛t✉r❡③❛✱ ♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ❡ ❝♦♥❝❧✉sõ❡s tê♠ q✉❡ s❡r ✈✐st♦s ❝♦♠♦ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛✐s ❛♦s ❞❡t❛❧❤❡s ❞♦

✶_{❈r✐s❡ ❞❛ ➪s✐❛✱ ❡♠ ✶✾✾✼ ❡ ❞❛ ❘úss✐❛✱ ❡♠ ✶✾✾✽✳}

♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❡ ❛♦s ❞❛❞♦s ❡ ♠ét♦❞♦s ❞❡ ❡st✐♠❛çã♦ ❡♠♣r❡❣❛❞♦s✳ P❛r❛ ♦ ♥♦ss♦ ♣r♦♣ós✐t♦✱ ❛s r❡ss❛❧✈❛s ❡♠ r❡❧❛çã♦ ❛♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ sã♦ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r♠❡♥t❡ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡s✳

❖ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❡♠♣r❡❣❛❞♦ ♣♦❞❡ s❡r ❛❞❡q✉❛❞♦ ♣❛r❛ ❛♥❛❧✐s❛r q✉❡stõ❡s r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞❛s ❛ ✢✉t✉❛çõ❡s ❡❝♦♥ô♠✐❝❛s ❡ ♣♦❧ít✐❝❛s ❞❡ ❡st❛❜✐❧✐③❛çã♦ ♠❛❝r♦❡❝♦♥ô♠✐❝❛s✱ ♠❛s ♥ã♦ t❡♠ ♥❛❞❛ ❛ ❞✐③❡r s♦❜r❡ ♦ ❧♦♥❣♦ ♣r❛③♦✳ ■st♦ ♣♦rq✉❡ ♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ♥ã♦ ❝♦♥t❡♠♣❧❛ ♥❡♥❤✉♠ ❝❛♥❛❧ ♣❡❧♦ q✉❛❧ ♠✉❞❛♥ç❛s ❞❡ ♣♦❧ít✐❝❛ ♣♦ss❛♠ ❛❢❡t❛r ❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❝r❡s❝✐♠❡♥t♦ ❞❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛✳ P♦rt❛♥t♦✱ ♦ ♠❡s♠♦ só ❞❡✈❡ s❡r ✉t✐❧✐③❛❞♦ ♣❛r❛ ❛❜♦r❞❛r q✉❡stõ❡s ❝✐r❝✉♥s❝r✐t❛s às ❢r❡q✉ê♥❝✐❛s ❛ss♦❝✐❛❞❛s ❛♦s ❝✐❝❧♦s ❡❝♦♥ô♠✐❝♦s✳

❈♦♠♦ é ♣r❛①❡ ♥❛ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❛✱ tr❛❜❛❧❤❛♠♦s ❝♦♠ ✉♠❛ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛çã♦ ❞♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❡♠ t♦r♥♦ ❞❡ ✉♠ ❡st❛❞♦ ❡st❛❝✐♦♥ár✐♦ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥íst✐❝♦ ❝♦♠ ✐♥✢❛çã♦ ③❡r♦✳ ❊♥tr❡t❛♥t♦✱ ♥♦ ♣❡rí♦❞♦ ❛♠♦str❛❧ ❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ ❜r❛s✐❧❡✐r❛ s♦❢r❡✉ ❝❤♦q✉❡s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡s✱ ✐♥❝❧✉✐♥❞♦ ❛ ♣ró♣r✐❛ ♠✉❞❛♥ç❛ ❞❡ r❡❣✐♠❡ ♠♦♥❡tár✐♦✳ P♦rt❛♥t♦✱ ❡♠ ♣❡sq✉✐s❛s ❢✉t✉r❛s s❡r✐❛ ✐♥t❡r❡ss❛♥t❡ r❡✈✐s✐t❛r ❛s q✉❡stõ❡s ❛❜♦r❞❛❞❛s ♥❡st❡ ❛rt✐❣♦ ❡♠♣r❡❣❛♥❞♦ ♠ét♦❞♦s ❞❡ s♦❧✉✲ çã♦ q✉❡ ♣r❡s❡r✈❡♠ ♥ã♦✲❧✐♥❡❛r✐❞❛❞❡s ❞♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦✳ ❆❧é♠ ❞✐ss♦✱ s❡r✐❛ ❛❝♦♥s❡❧❤á✈❡❧ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r ✉♠ ❡st❛❞♦ ❡st❛❝✐♦♥ár✐♦ ❝♦♠ ✐♥✢❛çã♦ ♣ró①✐♠❛ ❞❛ ♠é❞✐❛ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞❛ ♥♦ ♣❡rí♦❞♦ ❛♠♦str❛❧✳

❆ ❤✐♣ót❡s❡ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❛♣❡♥❛s ♦s ♣❛râ♠❡tr♦s ❞❡ ♣♦❧ít✐❝❛ ♠♦♥❡tár✐❛ sã♦ ♣❛ssí✈❡✐s ❞❡ ♠✉❞❛♥ç❛ ❡ q✉❡ ♦s ❞❡✲ ♠❛✐s ♣❛râ♠❡tr♦s ❞❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ sã♦ ✐♥✈❛r✐❛♥t❡s ✭✏❡str✉t✉r❛✐s✑✮ é ✐♥❡r❡♥t❡ à ✐❞❡✐❛ ❞❡ q✉❡ ♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❡stá ❜❡♠ ❡s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛❞♦ ❡ ✐♠✉♥❡ à ❝❤❛♠❛❞❛ ❈rít✐❝❛ ❞❡ ▲✉❝❛s✳ ❊st❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s❡ ♣♦❞❡ s❡r t❡st❛❞❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠❡tr✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ ❡✱ ❡♠ ❝❛s♦ ❞❡ r❡❥❡✐çã♦✱ ♣♦❞❡✲s❡ ♠✉❞❛r ❛ ❡s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛çã♦ ❞♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦✳✷ _{❉❛ ♠❡s♠❛ ❢♦r♠❛✱ ♣♦❞❡rí❛♠♦s ❝♦♥✲} s✐❞❡r❛r ✉♠ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❝♦♠ ❛❧t❡r♥â♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ r❡❣✐♠❡s ♠♦♥❡tár✐♦s✱ ❝♦♠ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s ❞❡ tr❛♥s✐çã♦ ❡♥t❡♥❞✐❞❛s ♣❡❧♦s ❛❣❡♥t❡s ❡❝♦♥ô♠✐❝♦s✳ ■st♦ ♣❡r♠✐t✐r✐❛ ✐♥❝♦r♣♦r❛r ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐✈❛s ❞❡ ♠✉❞❛♥ç❛s ♥❛ ♣♦❧ít✐❝❛ ❝❛♠❜✐❛❧✱ q✉❡ ❝❡rt❛♠❡♥t❡ ❡①✐st✐r❛♠ ❡♠ ♠❛✐♦r ♦✉ ♠❡♥♦r ❣r❛✉ ❛♥t❡s ❞❛ ✢✉t✉❛çã♦ ❞♦ ❝â♠❜✐♦ ❡♠ ❥❛♥❡✐r♦ ❞❡ ✶✾✾✾✳✸

❆s q✉❡stõ❡s q✉❡ ♥♦s ♣❛r❡❝❡♠ ♠❛✐s r❡❧❡✈❛♥t❡s ❞✐③❡♠ r❡s♣❡✐t♦ à ✈✐❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡ ❞❛s ♣♦❧ít✐❝❛s ♠♦♥❡tár✐❛s ✉t✐❧✐③❛❞❛s ❡♠ ❛❧❣✉♠❛s ❞❛s ❤✐stór✐❛s ❝♦♥tr❛❢❛❝t✉❛✐s ✕ ♥♦t❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ♥❛ q✉❡ s✐♠✉❧❛ ❛ ♠❛♥✉t❡♥çã♦ ❞♦ r❡❣✐♠❡ ❞❡ ❜❛♥❞❛s ❝❛♠❜✐❛✐s✳ ◆♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❡♠♣r❡❣❛❞♦✱ ❛ ♠❛♥✉t❡♥çã♦ ❞❡st❡ r❡❣✐♠❡ s❡♠♣r❡ é ✈✐á✈❡❧✳ ◆ã♦ ❤á ♣r❡ssõ❡s ♣♦❧ít✐❝❛s✱ ❝r✐s❡s ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥ç❛✱ ❛t❛q✉❡s ❡s♣❡❝✉❧❛t✐✈♦s✱ ♥❡♠ ♣❡r❞❛ ❞❡ r❡s❡r✈❛s ✐♥t❡r♥❛❝✐♦♥❛✐s✳✹ ◆❛ r❡❛❧✐❞❛❞❡✱ ♣♦❞❡✲s❡ ❛r❣✉♠❡♥t❛r q✉❡ ❛ ❞❡❢❡s❛ ❞❡ ✉♠❛ ♣❛r✐❞❛❞❡ ❝❛♠❜✐❛❧ é s✐♠♣❧❡s♠❡♥t❡ ✐♥✈✐á✈❡❧ ❡♠ ❝❡rt❛s ❝✐r❝✉♥stâ♥❝✐❛s✳ ■♥❝♦r♣♦r❛r ♦ ♣❛♣❡❧ ❞❡ r❡s❡r✈❛s ❝❛♠❜✐❛✐s ❧✐♠✐t❛❞❛s ❡ ❛t❛q✉❡s ❡s♣❡❝✉❧❛t✐✈♦s ❡①✐❣✐r✐❛ ❡①t❡♥sõ❡s ♣♦t❡♥❝✐❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ✐♥t❡r❡ss❛♥t❡s q✉❡✱ ❛té ♦♥❞❡ s❛❜❡♠♦s✱ ♥ã♦ ❢♦r❛♠ ❡①♣❧♦r❛❞❛s ♥❛ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❛ ❞❡ ♠♦❞❡❧♦s ❉❙●❊✳

✷_{❖✉tr❛ ♦♣çã♦ s❡r✐❛ ♣❡r♠✐t✐r ♠✉❞❛♥ç❛s ❡♠ ❛❧❣✉♥s ✏♣❛râ♠❡tr♦s ❡str✉t✉r❛✐s✑✳ ❊♠❜♦r❛ ❡st❛ s♦❧✉çã♦ ❛♣❛r❡♥t❡ ❢✉❣✐r ❛♦}

❡s♣ír✐t♦ ❞❛ ❈rít✐❝❛ ❞❡ ▲✉❝❛s✱ ❤á ❡✈✐❞ê♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❛❧❣✉♥s ♣❛râ♠❡tr♦s ❤❛❜✐t✉❛❧♠❡♥t❡ t✐❞♦s ❝♦♠♦ ❡str✉t✉r❛✐s ♣♦❞❡♠ ✈❛r✐❛r ♥♦ t❡♠♣♦ ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡ ✭❡✳❣✳✱ ●✉✐s♦ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✷✵✶✸✮✳ ❈❛❜❡ r❡ss❛❧t❛r q✉❡ ❡st❡ t✐♣♦ ❞❡ ❡✈✐❞ê♥❝✐❛ ♥ã♦ ❝♦♥✢✐t❛ ❝♦♠ ❛ ❡ssê♥❝✐❛ ❞❛ ❈rít✐❝❛ ❞❡ ▲✉❝❛s✳

✸_{❊st❛s ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐✈❛s ♣♦❞❡♠ s❡r ❡①♣❧✐❝✐t❛♠❡♥t❡ ♠♦❞❡❧❛❞❛s ❝♦♠♦ ❡♠ ❉❛✈✐❣ ❡ ▲❡❡♣❡r ✭✷✵✶✵✮✱ q✉❡ ❛tr✐❜✉❡♠ ✉♠ ♣r♦❝❡ss♦}

❞❡ ▼❛r❦♦✈ s✇✐t❝❤✐♥❣ à r❡❣r❛ ❞❡ ♣♦❧ít✐❝❛ ♠♦♥❡tár✐❛ ♥♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ♥♦✈♦ ❑❡②♥❡s✐❛♥♦ ❜ás✐❝♦✳ ❊♥tr❡t❛♥t♦✱ ♣❛r❛ ✉♠ ♣r✐♠❡✐r♦ ❡①❡r❝í❝✐♦ ✈✐s❛♥❞♦ ❛❜♦r❞❛r ❛s q✉❡stõ❡s ❞❡st❡ ❛rt✐❣♦ ✕ ❡ t❡♥❞♦ ❡♠ ✈✐st❛ ❛ ❛♥á❧✐s❡ ❝♦♠ ❜❛s❡ ❡♠ ❞❛❞♦s tr✐♠❡str❛✐s ✕ t❛❧✈❡③ ❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s❡ ❞❡ ♠✉❞❛♥ç❛ ❞❡ r❡❣✐♠❡ ♥ã♦ ❛♥t❡❝✐♣❛❞❛ s❡❥❛ ♠❡♥♦s ♣r♦❜❧❡♠át✐❝❛ ❞♦ q✉❡ ♣♦ss❛ ♣❛r❡❝❡r à ♣r✐♠❡✐r❛ ✈✐st❛✳

✹_{❖ ❧❡✐t♦r ♣♦✉❝♦ ❢❛♠✐❧✐❛r✐③❛❞♦ ❝♦♠ ❛ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❛ ♠❛✐s r❡❝❡♥t❡ s♦❜r❡ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ ▼♦♥❡tár✐❛ ♣♦❞❡rá ❡str❛♥❤❛r ♦ ❢❛t♦ ❞❡}

♥ã♦ ❤❛✈❡r ♥❡♠ ♠❡s♠♦ ♠♦❡❞❛ ♥♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦✳ ◆❡st❡ ♣♦♥t♦✱ s❡❣✉✐♠♦s ❛ ❛❜♦r❞❛❣❡♠ ♣r♦♣♦st❛ ♣♦r ❲♦♦❞❢♦r❞ ✭✷✵✵✸✮✱ ❛♦ q✉❛❧ r❡♠❡t❡♠♦s ♦s ✐♥t❡r❡ss❛❞♦s ❡♠ s❡ ❛♣r♦❢✉♥❞❛r ♥♦ ❛ss✉♥t♦✳

❆ ❞✐s❝✉ssã♦ ❞♦ ♣❛rá❣r❛❢♦ ❛♥t❡r✐♦r r❡♠❡t❡ à r❡ss❛❧✈❛ ♠❛✐s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡✱ q✉❡ ❞✐③ r❡s♣❡✐t♦ à ♣♦❧ít✐❝❛ ✜s❝❛❧✱ ❞❛ q✉❛❧ ♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❡ss❡♥❝✐❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ❛❜str❛✐✳ P♦❞❡✲s❡ ❛r❣✉♠❡♥t❛r q✉❡ ❛s ♣r❡ssõ❡s ♣❛r❛ ❞❡s✈❛❧♦r✐③❛çã♦ ❞♦ ❝â♠❜✐♦ ❛ q✉❡ ❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ ❜r❛s✐❧❡✐r❛ ❡st❡✈❡ s✉❥❡✐t❛ ❛♥t❡s ❞❡ ✶✾✾✾ ❞❡❝♦rr✐❛♠✱ ❡♠ ❣r❛♥❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❞❛✱ ❞❡ ✉♠❛ ♣❡r❝❡♣çã♦ ❞❡ ✐♥❝♦♥s✐stê♥❝✐❛ ❞❛ ♣♦❧ít✐❝❛ ✜s❝❛❧✳ ■st♦ t❡r✐❛ ✐♠♣♦st♦ ❧✐♠✐t❡s ♣❛r❛ ❛ ♣♦❧ít✐❝❛ ♠♦♥❡tár✐❛ ❡ ✐♥✈✐❛❜✐❧✐③❛❞♦ ❛ ♠❛♥✉t❡♥çã♦ ❞♦ r❡❣✐♠❡ ❞❡ ❜❛♥❞❛s ❝❛♠❜✐❛✐s✳ ❊st❛ ❞✐♠❡♥sã♦ ♣♦❞❡ s❡r ❛❜♦r❞❛❞❛ ❡♠ ✉♠ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❝♦♠ ✐♥t❡r❛çõ❡s r❡❧❡✈❛♥t❡s ❡♥tr❡ ❛s ♣♦❧ít✐❝❛s ♠♦♥❡tár✐❛ ❡ ✜s❝❛❧ ✕ ♣♦ss✐✈❡❧♠❡♥t❡ ❝♦♠ ♠✉❞❛♥ç❛s ❞❡ r❡❣✐♠❡ ❛♣❧✐❝á✈❡✐s ❛ ❛♠❜❛s✳ ◆❡st❡ ❝♦♥t❡①t♦✱ é ♥❛t✉r❛❧ q✉❡ ♦ ♣rê♠✐♦ ❞❡ r✐s❝♦ ❛ss♦❝✐❛❞♦ ❛♦ ❡♥❞✐✈✐❞❛♠❡♥t♦ ❡①t❡r♥♦ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❛ ❞❛ s✐t✉❛çã♦ ✜s❝❛❧ ✕ ❛❧❣♦ q✉❡ ♥ã♦ ♦❝♦rr❡ ♥♦ ♥♦ss♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦✳ ❈♦♠♦ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦✱ ♦s ✏❝❤♦q✉❡s ❡str✉t✉r❛✐s✑ r❡❝✉♣❡r❛❞♦s ❛tr❛✈és ❞♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦ ♣♦❞❡♠ ♠✉❞❛r ❞❡ ♠❛♥❡✐r❛ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛t✐✈❛✱ ❝♦♠ ❡❢❡✐t♦s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡s s♦❜r❡ ❛s ❤✐stór✐❛s ❝♦♥tr❛❢❛❝t✉❛✐s q✉❡ s✐♠✉❧❛♠♦s ✭♠❛✐s s♦❜r❡ ✐ss♦ ❛❜❛✐①♦✮✳

❈♦♠ ❛s r❡ss❛❧✈❛s ❛♥t❡r✐♦r❡s ❡♠ ♠❡♥t❡✱ ♣❛ss❡♠♦s ❛♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s✳ ❈♦♠♦ ❡s♣❡r❛❞♦✱ ♥♦ r❡❣✐♠❡ ❞❡ ❜❛♥❞❛s ❝❛♠❜✐❛✐s ♦s ♣❛râ♠❡tr♦s ❡st✐♠❛❞♦s ✐♥❞✐❝❛♠ ✉♠❛ ♣♦❧ít✐❝❛ ♠♦♥❡tár✐❛ ✈♦❧t❛❞❛ ♣❛r❛ ❛ ♠❛♥✉t❡♥çã♦ ❞❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❝â♠❜✐♦ ♥♦♠✐♥❛❧ ♥♦s ♥í✈❡✐s ❞❡✜♥✐❞♦s ♣❡❧♦ ❇❈❇✳ ❏á ♥♦ r❡❣✐♠❡ ❞❡ ♠❡t❛s ♣❛r❛ ❛ ✐♥✢❛çã♦✱ ♦s ♣❛râ♠❡tr♦s ❡st✐♠❛❞♦s s✉❣❡r❡♠ ✉♠❛ ♣♦❧ít✐❝❛ ♠♦♥❡tár✐❛ ♠❛✐s ❞✐r❡❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ ♣❛r❛ ❛ ❡st❛❜✐❧✐③❛çã♦ ❞❛ ✐♥✢❛çã♦✳✺ _{❙✉❣❡r❡♠✱} ❛❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ ✉♠ ❝♦♠♣♦rt❛♠❡♥t♦ ♠❛✐s ♣r❡✈✐sí✈❡❧ ❡ s✐st❡♠át✐❝♦ ❞♦ ❇❈❇✱ r❡✢❡t✐❞♦ ♥❛ ♠❡♥♦r ✈❛r✐â♥❝✐❛ ❞♦ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t❡ ♥ã♦ s✐st❡♠át✐❝♦ ❞❛ ♣♦❧ít✐❝❛ ♠♦♥❡tár✐❛ ❡ ♥❛ ♠❛❣♥✐t✉❞❡ ❞♦s t❡r♠♦s ❞❡ s✉❛✈✐③❛çã♦ ❞❛ tr❛❥❡tór✐❛ ❞❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❥✉r♦s✳

❆s r❡❣r❛s ❞❡ ♣♦❧ít✐❝❛ ♠♦♥❡tár✐❛ ❡st✐♠❛❞❛s ♣r♦❞✉③❡♠ ❞✐♥â♠✐❝❛s ♠❛❝r♦❡❝♦♥ô♠✐❝❛s ❜❛st❛♥t❡ ❞✐st✐♥t❛s ❡♠ r❡s♣♦st❛ ❛ ❝❤♦q✉❡s ❡str✉t✉r❛✐s✱ ❡s♣❡❝✐❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ♥♦ q✉❡ ❞✐③ r❡s♣❡✐t♦ ❛♦s ❝❤♦q✉❡s ❡①t❡r♥♦s✳ ❖s r❡s✉❧✲ t❛❞♦s s✉❣❡r❡♠ q✉❡ ♦ ♣❛♣❡❧ ❝❧áss✐❝♦ ❞❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❝â♠❜✐♦ ✢✉t✉❛♥t❡✱ ❞❡ ❛♠♦rt❡❝❡r ♦s ❡❢❡✐t♦s ❞❡st❡ t✐♣♦ ❞❡ ♣❡rt✉r❜❛çã♦✱ é ✉♠ ❢❛t♦r ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛♥t❡ ♣❛r❛ ❛s ❞✐❢❡r❡♥ç❛s ✈❡r✐✜❝❛❞❛s✳

❊st❛s ❞✐❢❡r❡♥ç❛s ♥❛ ❞✐♥â♠✐❝❛ ❞❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ ♣r♦❞✉③✐❞❛s ♣❡❧♦s ❞♦✐s r❡❣✐♠❡s ♠♦♥❡tár✐♦s ♥♦s ❧❡✈❛♠ ❛ ♣♦♥✲ ❞❡r❛r ♦ q✉❡ t❡r✐❛ ♦❝♦rr✐❞♦ ❝❛s♦ ❛ tr❛♥s✐çã♦ ❞♦ r❡❣✐♠❡ ❞❡ ❜❛♥❞❛s ❝❛♠❜✐❛✐s ♣❛r❛ ♦ s✐st❡♠❛ ❞❡ ♠❡t❛s ♣❛r❛ ❛ ✐♥✢❛çã♦ t✐✈❡ss❡ ♦❝♦rr✐❞♦ ❡♠ ♦✉tr♦ ♠♦♠❡♥t♦✱ s♦❜ ♦✉tr❛s ❝♦♥❞✐çõ❡s✳ P❛r❛ ❛♥❛❧✐s❛r ❡st❛ q✉❡stã♦✱ ❝♦♥str✉í✲ ♠♦s ❤✐stór✐❛s ❝♦♥tr❛❢❛❝t✉❛✐s ❡♠ q✉❡ s✐♠✉❧❛♠♦s ❝♦♠♦ ❝♦♥✜❣✉r❛çõ❡s ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛s ❞❡ ♣♦❧ít✐❝❛ ♠♦♥❡tár✐❛ t❡r✐❛♠ ✐♠♣❛❝t❛❞♦ ❛ tr❛❥❡tór✐❛ ❞❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ ❜r❛s✐❧❡✐r❛ ❡♠ r❡s♣♦st❛ ❛♦s ❝❤♦q✉❡s ❡str✉t✉r❛✐s ❡st✐♠❛❞♦s✳

◆♦ss♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s s✉❣❡r❡♠ q✉❡ ❛ ♠❛♥✉t❡♥çã♦ ❞♦ r❡❣✐♠❡ ❞❡ ❜❛♥❞❛s ❝❛♠❜✐❛✐s ❛❧é♠ ❞♦ ♣r✐♠❡✐r♦ tr✐♠❡s✲ tr❡ ❞❡ ✶✾✾✾ t❡r✐❛ s✐❞♦ ♠✉✐t♦ ❝✉st♦s❛✳✻ _{❊♠❜♦r❛ s❡❥❛ s❡♠♣r❡ ♣♦ssí✈❡❧ ❡✈✐t❛r ✉♠❛ ❞❡s✈❛❧♦r✐③❛çã♦ ❝❛♠❜✐❛❧} ❛❜r✉♣t❛ ♥♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦✱ ♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ❝♦♥tr❛❢❛❝t✉❛✐s s✉❣❡r❡♠ q✉❡ ✐st♦ t❡r✐❛ ❡①✐❣✐❞♦ t❛①❛s ❞❡ ❥✉r♦s ❡①tr❡✲ ♠❛♠❡♥t❡ ❡❧❡✈❛❞❛s ♣♦r ✈ár✐♦s tr✐♠❡str❡s✳ ❈♦♠♦ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦✱ ❛ ❛t✐✈✐❞❛❞❡ ❡❝♦♥ô♠✐❝❛ t❡r✐❛ s♦❢r✐❞♦ ❢♦rt❡ ❝♦♥tr❛çã♦✳ ❆♣❡s❛r ❞❡ ♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ♥ã♦ ❧❡✈❛r ❡♠ ❝♦♥t❛ ❛❧❣✉♠❛s ❞✐♠❡♥õ❡s r❡❧❡✈❛♥t❡s✱ ♥♦s ♣❛r❡❝❡ ♣❧❛✉sí✲

✺_{P❛r❛ ❛♥á❧✐s❡s r❡❝❡♥t❡s s♦❜r❡ ♣♦ssí✈❡✐s ♠✉❞❛♥ç❛s ♥❛ ❢♦r♠❛ ❞❡ ❝♦♥❞✉çã♦ ❞❛ ♣♦❧ít✐❝❛ ♠♦♥❡tár✐❛ ❞❡s❞❡ ❛ ✐♠♣❧❛♥t❛çã♦ ❞♦}

r❡❣✐♠❡ ❞❡ ♠❡t❛s ♥♦ ❇r❛s✐❧✱ ✈❡r ❇❡rr✐❡❧ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✶✸✮✱ ❈❛r✈❛❧❤♦ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✶✸✮ ❡ ●♦♥ç❛❧✈❡s ✭✷✵✶✺✮✳

✻_{◆♦ss❛ ❛✈❛❧✐❛çã♦ ❞♦s ❝✉st♦s ❡ ❜❡♥❡❢í❝✐♦s ❞❡ ❤✐stór✐❛s ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛s é ❞❡❧✐❜❡r❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛❧ ❡ ♥ã♦ ♥❡❝❡ss❛r✐❛♠❡♥t❡}

❝♦✐♥❝✐❞❡ ❝♦♠ ♦ q✉❡ r❡s✉❧t❛r✐❛ ❞❡ ✉♠❛ ❛♥á❧✐s❡ ❢♦r♠❛❧ ❞❡ ❜❡♠✲❡st❛r ❜❛s❡❛❞❛ ♥❛ ❡str✉t✉r❛ ❞♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦✳ Pr♦❝❡❞❡♠♦s ❞❡st❛ ❢♦r♠❛ ♣❛r❛ r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛r ❛s ❛✈❛❧✐❛çõ❡s ❞❛s ❞✐❢❡r❡♥t❡s ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛s ❝♦♠ ♦ q✉❡ ❛❝r❡❞✐t❛♠♦s s❡r ♦ ✏s❡♥s♦ ❝♦♠✉♠✑ ❞♦s ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥t❡s ❞❡st❡ ❞❡❜❛t❡ ♥♦ ❇r❛s✐❧✳

✈❡❧ ❝♦♥❝❧✉✐r q✉❡ ❛ ♠❛♥✉t❡♥çã♦ ❞♦ r❡❣✐♠❡ ❞❡ ❜❛♥❞❛s ❝❛♠❜✐❛✐s ❛❧é♠ ❞♦ ♣r✐♠❡✐r♦ tr✐♠❡str❡ ❞❡ ✶✾✾✾ ❡r❛ ♣r❛t✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ ✐♥✈✐á✈❡❧✳

◆✉♠❛ s❡❣✉♥❞❛ ❛♥á❧✐s❡ ❝♦♥tr❛❢❛❝t✉❛❧✱ s✐♠✉❧❛♠♦s ✉♠❛ ❛❝❡❧❡r❛çã♦ ❞♦ r✐t♠♦ ❞❡ ❞❡s✈❛❧♦r✐③❛çã♦ ❞❛s ❜❛♥❞❛s ❝❛♠❜✐❛✐s ❛♣ós ❛ ❈r✐s❡ ❞❛ ➪s✐❛✱ ♣❛ss❛♥❞♦ ❞❡ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡7%♣❛r❛14%❛♦ ❛♥♦✳ ◆❡st❡ ❝❛s♦✱ t❡rí❛♠♦s ✈✐✈❡♥❝✐❛❞♦ ♠❛✐s ✐♥✢❛çã♦✱ ❥✉r♦s ♥♦♠✐♥❛✐s ❡ r❡❛✐s ♠❛✐s ❛❧t♦s ❡ ❛t✐✈✐❞❛❞❡ ❡❝♦♥ô♠✐❝❛ ♠❛✐s ❢r❛❝❛✳

P♦r ✜♠✱ ♥♦ss♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s s✉❣❡r❡♠ q✉❡ ♦ ♣r✐♠❡✐r♦ s❡♠❡str❡ ❞❡ ✶✾✾✽ ♣♦❞❡ t❡r ♦❢❡r❡❝✐❞♦ ❛ ❥❛♥❡❧❛ ✐❞❡❛❧ ♣❛r❛ ✉♠❛ tr❛♥s✐çã♦ r❡❧❛t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡ s✉❛✈❡ ❞♦ s✐st❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❜❛♥❞❛s ❝❛♠❜✐❛✐s ♣❛r❛ ♦ r❡❣✐♠❡ ❞❡ ♠❡t❛s ♣❛r❛ ❛ ✐♥✢❛çã♦ ❝♦♠ ❝â♠❜✐♦ ✢✉t✉❛♥t❡✳

◆❛ s❡q✉ê♥❝✐❛ ❞❡st❛ ■♥tr♦❞✉çã♦✱ ❛♣r❡s❡♥t❛♠♦s ❛ ❡s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛çã♦ ❡ s♦❧✉çã♦ ❞♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦✱ ❛ ♠❡t♦❞♦❧♦❣✐❛ ❞❡ ❡st✐♠❛çã♦✱ ♦s ❞❛❞♦s ✉t✐❧✐③❛❞♦s ❡ ♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ❞♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦✳ ❊♠ s❡❣✉✐❞❛✱ ❛♣r❡s❡♥t❛♠♦s ❛ ♠❡t♦❞♦❧♦❣✐❛ ❡ ♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ❞♦s ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦s ❝♦♥tr❛❢❛❝t✉❛✐s✱ s❡❣✉✐❞♦s ❞❛ ❝♦♥❝❧✉sã♦✳ ❱✐s❛♥❞♦ t♦r♥❛r ❛ ❧❡✐t✉r❛ ♠❡♥♦s ár✐❞❛✱ ♥❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❞♦ ♣♦ssí✈❡❧ ❝♦♥❝❡♥tr❛♠♦s ♦s ❞❡t❛❧❤❡s té❝♥✐❝♦s ❡ ♠❡t♦❞♦❧ó❣✐❝♦s ♥♦ ❆♣ê♥❞✐❝❡✳

✷ ▼♦❞❡❧♦

◆♦ss❛ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ r❡❢❡rê♥❝✐❛ é ♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ♥♦✈♦ ❑❡②♥❡s✐❛♥♦ ❞❡ ✭s❡♠✐✲✮♣❡q✉❡♥❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ ❛❜❡rt❛ ❞❡ ❏✉st✐♥✐❛♥♦ ❡ Pr❡st♦♥ ✭✷✵✶✵✮✳ ❯♠ ❝♦♥s✉♠✐❞♦r r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛t✐✈♦ ❞❡r✐✈❛ ✉t✐❧✐❞❛❞❡ ❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ❤á❜✐t♦s ❛tr❛✈és ❞♦ ❝♦♥s✉♠♦ ❞❡ ❜❡♥s ❡ s❡r✈✐ç♦s ✭✏♣r♦❞✉t♦s✑✮ ♣r♦❞✉③✐❞♦s ❞♦♠❡st✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ ❡ ✐♠♣♦rt❛❞♦s✳ ❊❧❡ t❛♠❜é♠ ✐♥❝♦rr❡ ❡♠ ❞❡s✉t✐❧✐❞❛❞❡ ❛♦ ♦❢❡rt❛r tr❛❜❛❧❤♦ ♣❛r❛ ♣r♦❞✉t♦r❡s ❞♦♠ést✐❝♦s✳ P❛r❛ s✉❛✈✐③❛r s❡✉ ❝♦♥s✉♠♦✱ ♦ ❝♦♥s✉♠✐❞♦r ♣♦❞❡ r❡❝♦rr❡r ❛ tít✉❧♦s ❞♦♠ést✐❝♦s q✉❡ r❡♥❞❡♠ ❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❥✉r♦s ❞❡✜♥✐❞❛ ♣❡❧♦ ❇❛♥❝♦ ❈❡♥tr❛❧ ❞♦ ❇r❛s✐❧✱ ♦✉ ❛ tít✉❧♦s ❡①t❡r♥♦s✱ q✉❡ r❡♥❞❡♠ ✉♠❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❥✉r♦s ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞❛ ♥♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ✐♥t❡r♥❛❝✐♦♥❛❧✱ ❛❝r❡s❝✐❞❛ ❞❡ ✉♠ ♣rê♠✐♦ q✉❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡ ❞♦ ❣r❛✉ ❞❡ ❡♥❞✐✈✐❞❛♠❡♥t♦ ❡①t❡r♥♦ ❞❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛✳

❆s ✜r♠❛s ♦♣❡r❛♠ ❡♠ ❝♦♥❝♦rrê♥❝✐❛ ♠♦♥♦♣♦❧íst✐❝❛ ❡ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♠✲s❡ ❡♠ ❞♦✐s ❣r✉♣♦s✳ ❆s ♣r♦❞✉t♦r❛s ❞♦✲ ♠ést✐❝❛s ❡♠♣r❡❣❛♠ tr❛❜❛❧❤♦ ♣❛r❛ ♣r♦❞✉③✐r s✉❛s ✈❛r✐❡❞❛❞❡s ❞❡ ❜❡♥s ❡ s❡r✈✐ç♦s ❛tr❛✈és ❞❡ ✉♠❛ t❡❝♥♦❧♦❣✐❛ s✉❥❡✐t❛ ❛ ❝❤♦q✉❡s ❞❡ ♣r♦❞✉t✐✈✐❞❛❞❡✳ ❆s ❞❡♠❛✐s ✜r♠❛s sã♦ ✈❛r❡❥✐st❛s q✉❡ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♠ ♣r♦❞✉t♦s✱ ♦s ❞✐❢❡r❡♥✲ ❝✐❛♠✱ ❡ ✈❡♥❞❡♠ ♥♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❞♦♠ést✐❝♦✳ ❚♦❞❛s ❛s ✜r♠❛s r❡❛✈❛❧✐❛♠ s❡✉s ♣r❡ç♦s ❞❡ ♠❛♥❡✐r❛ ✐♥❢r❡q✉❡♥t❡ ❡ ✐♥❞❡①❛♠ ♣r❡ç♦s ❛ ✉♠❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❞❡ ✐♥✢❛çã♦ ♣❛ss❛❞❛ q✉❛♥❞♦ ✐ss♦ ♥❛♦ ♦❝♦rr❡✳

❆ ♠♦❞✐✜❝❛çã♦ ❡ss❡♥❝✐❛❧ q✉❡ ❢❛③❡♠♦s ♥♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ é ✐♥tr♦❞✉③✐r ❞♦✐s r❡❣✐♠❡s ♠♦♥❡tár✐♦s ❞✐st✐♥t♦s✱ ♥♦ ❡s♣ír✐t♦ ❞❡ ❈úr❞✐❛ ❡ ❋✐♥♦❝❝❤✐❛r♦ ✭✷✵✶✸✮✳ ◆♦ ♣r✐♠❡✐r♦ r❡❣✐♠❡✱ ❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❥✉r♦s ❞❡✜♥✐❞❛ ♣❡❧♦ ❇❈❇ r❡s♣♦♥❞❡ ❛ ❞❡s✈✐♦s ❞❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❝â♠❜✐♦ ♥♦♠✐♥❛❧ ❡♠ r❡❧❛çã♦ ❛ ✉♠❛ ♠❡t❛ q✉❡ ❡✈♦❧✉✐ ♥♦ t❡♠♣♦✱ ✐♥t❡♣r❡t❛❞❛ ❝♦♠♦ ♦ ❝❡♥tr♦ ❞❡ ✉♠❛ ❜❛♥❞❛ ❝❛♠❜✐❛❧✳ ◆♦ s❡❣✉♥❞♦ r❡❣✐♠❡✱ ♦ ❇❈❇ r❡s♣♦♥❞❡ ❛ ❞❡s✈✐♦s ❞❛ ✐♥✢❛çã♦ ❡♠ r❡❧❛çã♦ à s✉❛ ♠❡t❛✳ ❙❡❣✉✐♥❞♦ ❛ ❛❜♦r❞❛❣❡♠ ♣r♦♣♦st❛ ♣♦r ❲♦♦❞❢♦r❞ ✭✷✵✵✸✮✱ tr❛❜❛❧❤❛♠♦s ❝♦♠ ♦ ❧✐♠✐t❡ s❡♠ ♠♦❡❞❛ ❞❡st❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛✳

✷✳✶ ❈♦♥s✉♠✐❞♦r r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛t✐✈♦

❖ ❝♦♥s✉♠✐❞♦r r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛t✐✈♦ ❜r❛s✐❧❡✐r♦ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❛ ✉t✐❧✐❞❛❞❡ ❡s♣❡r❛❞❛

E0 ∞

X

t=0

βtΓt

"

(Ct−Ht)1−σ

1−σ −

N_t1+ϕ

1 +ϕ

#

,

s✉❥❡✐t♦ à r❡str✐çã♦ ♦rç❛♠❡♥tár✐❛ ❛♣r❡s❡♥t❛❞❛ ❛❜❛✐①♦✳ ❖ t❡r♠♦ Γt é ✉♠ ❝❤♦q✉❡ ❞❡ ♣r❡❢❡rê♥❝✐❛s✱ Ht ≡

hCt−1 é ♦ ✏❡st♦q✉❡✑ ❞❡ ❤á❜✐t♦ ✭t✐❞♦ ❝♦♠♦ ❡①ó❣❡♥♦ ♣❡❧♦ ❛❣❡♥t❡✮ ❡Nté ❛ s✉❛ ♦❢❡rt❛ ❞❡ tr❛❜❛❧❤♦✳ ❖ ♣❛râ✲

♠❡tr♦β <1é ♦ ❢❛t♦r s✉❜❥❡t✐✈♦ ❞❡ ❞❡s❝♦♥t♦ ✐♥t❡rt❡♠♣♦r❛❧✱ ❡ ♦s ♣❛râ♠❡tr♦s σ ❡ ϕsã♦✱ r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡✱

♦ ✐♥✈❡rs♦ ❞❛ ❡❧❛st✐❝✐❞❛❞❡ ❞❡ s✉❜st✐t✉✐çã♦ ✐♥t❡rt❡♠♣♦r❛❧ ❡ ♦ ✐♥✈❡rs♦ ❞❛ ❡❧❛st✐❝✐❞❛❞❡ ✭❋r✐s❝❤✮ ❞❛ ♦❢❡rt❛ ❞❡ tr❛❜❛❧❤♦✳ ❖ ♦♣❡r❛❞♦r Et❞❡♥♦t❛ ❡①♣❡❝t❛t✐✈❛s ❜❛s❡❛❞❛s ♥❛ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛çã♦ ❞✐s♣♦♥í✈❡❧ ❡♠t✳

❖ ❝♦♥s✉♠♦ ❛❣r❡❣❛❞♦ é ❞❛❞♦ ♣♦r✿

Ct=

(1−α)1η_C η−1

η

D,t +α

1 η_C

η−1 η

I,t

₁η

−η

, ✭✶✮

♦♥❞❡η é ❛ ❡❧❛st✐❝✐❞❛❞❡ ❞❡ s✉❜st✐t✉✐çã♦ ❡♥tr❡ ♣r♦❞✉t♦s ❞♦♠ést✐❝♦s ❡ ✐♠♣♦rt❛❞♦s ❡ αé ❛ ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛çã♦ ❞♦s

♣r♦❞✉t♦s ✐♠♣♦rt❛❞♦s ♥♦ ❝♦♥s✉♠♦ t♦t❛❧ ✕ ✉♠❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❞♦ ❣r❛✉ ❞❡ ❛❜❡rt✉r❛ ❝♦♠❡r❝✐❛❧ ❞❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛✳ CD,t

❡ CI,t sã♦ ❝❡st❛s ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❡❞❛❞❡s ❞❡ ♣r♦❞✉t♦s ♣r♦❞✉③✐❞♦s ❞♦♠❡st✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ ❡ ✐♠♣♦rt❛❞♦s✱ r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡✱

❝♦♠♣♦st❛s ❛tr❛✈és ❞❛ ❛❣r❡❣❛çã♦ ❞❛s ❞✐❢❡r❡♥t❡s ✈❛r✐❡❞❛❞❡sCD,t(i) ❡ CI,t(i)✿

CD,t=

Z 1

0

CD,t(i)

ε−1 ε di

ε−ε1

, CI,t=

Z 1

0

CI,t(i)

ε−1 ε di

ε−ε1

.

❆ ❡❧❛st✐❝✐❞❛❞❡ ❞❡ s✉❜st✐t✉✐çã♦ ❡♥tr❡ ✈❛r✐❡❞❛❞❡s ❝♦♠ ❛ ♠❡s♠❛ ♦r✐❣❡♠ é ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦rε✳

▼✉✐t♦ ❛ ❝♦♥tr❛❣♦st♦✱ ♦ ❛❣❡♥t❡ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛t✐✈♦ ❜r❛s✐❧❡✐r♦ ❡♥❢r❡♥t❛ ❛ r❡str✐çã♦ ♦rç❛♠❡♥tár✐❛ ❛❜❛✐①♦✿

PtCt+Dt+StBt=Dt−1Rt−1+StBt−1R∗t−1Φt−1(

St−1Bt−1

Pt−1Y

) +WtNt+ ΠD,t+ ΠI,t,

♦♥❞❡ St é ❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❝â♠❜✐♦ ♥♦♠✐♥❛❧✱ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛❞❛ ❡♠ ✉♥✐❞❛❞❡s ❞❛ ♠♦❡❞❛ ❞♦♠ést✐❝❛ ✭✏❘❡❛✐s✑✮ ♣♦r

✉♥✐❞❛❞❡ ❞❡ ♠♦❡❞❛ ❡str❛♥❣❡✐r❛ ✭✏❉ó❧❛r❡s✑✮✱Dtsã♦ tít✉❧♦s ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛❞♦s ❡♠ ❘❡❛✐s ❡Btsã♦ tít✉❧♦s ❡①t❡r♥♦s

❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛❞♦s ❡♠ ❉ó❧❛r❡s ❝♦♠ r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈❛s t❛①❛s ❞❡ ❥✉r♦s ✭❜r✉t❛s✮Rt❡R∗tΦt(S_Pt_tB_Yt)✱Wté ♦ s❛❧ár✐♦ ♥♦♠✐♥❛❧✱

ΠD,t❡ΠI,tsã♦ ❧✉❝r♦s ❞❛s ✜r♠❛s ♣r♦❞✉t♦r❛s ❞♦♠ést✐❝❛s ❡ ❞❛s ✜r♠❛s ✐♠♣♦rt❛❞♦r❛s✱ r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡✱Y é

♦ ♣r♦❞✉t♦ ❞♦♠ést✐❝♦ ❡♠ ❡st❛❞♦ ❡st❛❝✐♦♥ár✐♦ ❡Pté ♦ í♥❞✐❝❡ ❞❡ ♣r❡ç♦s ❛ss♦❝✐❛❞♦ ❛♦ ❛❣r❡❣❛❞♦r ❞❡ ❝♦♥s✉♠♦✱

❛ s❡r ❞❡✜♥✐❞♦ ❛❜❛✐①♦✳ ❖ ❝♦♥s✉♠✐❞♦r ❡♥❢r❡♥t❛✱ ❛✐♥❞❛✱ ✉♠❛ r❡str✐çã♦ ✏♥♦✲P♦♥③✐✑ ♣❛❞rã♦✳

❆ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❥✉r♦s ❞♦s tít✉❧♦s ❡①t❡r♥♦sBt r❡s✉❧t❛ ❞❛ ❝♦♠♣♦s✐çã♦ ❡♥tr❡ ❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❥✉r♦s ✐♥t❡r♥❛❝✐♦♥❛❧R∗t

❡ ✉♠❛ ❝✉♥❤❛ q✉❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡ ❞❛ ♣♦s✐çã♦ ❞❡ ❛t✐✈♦s ❡①t❡r♥♦s ❧íq✉✐❞♦s ❞♦ ♣❛ís✱ q✉❡ ♣♦❞❡ s❡r ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❞❛ ❝♦♠♦

✉♠ ♣rê♠✐♦ ❞❡ r✐s❝♦ ❛ss♦❝✐❛❞♦ ❛♦ ❡♥❞✐✈✐❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ❡①t❡r♥♦✳ ❊st❡ ♣rê♠✐♦ é ❞❡✜♥✐❞♦ ♣❡❧❛ ❢✉♥çã♦Φt()✿✼

Φt(Zt) = exp[−χZt+φt],

♦♥❞❡ φt é ✉♠ ❝❤♦q✉❡ ♥♦ ♣rê♠✐♦ ❞❡ r✐s❝♦✳

❆ ❤✐♣ót❡s❡ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❥✉r♦s ❞♦s tít✉❧♦s ❡①t❡r♥♦s r❡s♣♦♥❞❡ ❛♦ ❣r❛✉ ❞❡ ❡♥❞✐✈✐❞❛♠❡♥t♦ ❡①t❡r♥♦ ❣❛r❛♥t❡ ❡st❛❝✐♦♥❛r✐❡❞❛❞❡ ❞♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦✳✽ _{❆❧é♠ ❞✐ss♦✱ ❛ ❡s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛çã♦ ❡s❝♦❧❤✐❞❛ ♣❡r♠✐t❡ ✐♥tr♦❞✉③✐r ✉♠ ❝❤♦q✉❡} ♥❡❝❡ssár✐♦ ♣❛r❛ ❛ ❡st✐♠❛çã♦ ❞♦ ♠❡s♠♦✳ ❊st❡ ❝❤♦q✉❡ t❡♠ ♦ ❜❡♥❡❢í❝✐♦ ❞❡ s❡r ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡tá✈❡❧ ❝♦♠♦ ✉♠ ❞❡s✈✐♦ ❞❛ ❝♦♥❞✐çã♦ ♣❛❞rã♦ ❞❡ ♣❛r✐❞❛❞❡ ❞❡s❝♦❜❡rt❛ ❞❛s t❛①❛s ❞❡ ❥✉r♦s ✭✈❡r ❛❜❛✐①♦✮✳

❆ ❛❧♦❝❛çã♦ ót✐♠❛ ❞❡ ❝♦♥s✉♠♦ ❞❡♥tr♦ ❞❡ ❝❛❞❛ ❝❛t❡❣♦r✐❛ ❞❡ ♣r♦❞✉t♦s ✭❞♦♠ést✐❝♦s ❡ ✐♠♣♦rt❛❞♦s✮ ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛ ❛s s❡❣✉✐♥t❡s ❢✉♥çõ❡s ❞❡ ❞❡♠❛♥❞❛ ♣❡❧♦s ❛❣r❡❣❛❞♦s ❞❡ ♣r♦❞✉t♦s ❞♦♠ést✐❝♦s ❡ ✐♠♣♦rt❛❞♦s✿

CD,t= (1−α)

PD,t

Pt

−η

Ct e CI,t=α

PI,t

Pt

−η

Ct, ✭✷✮

❡ ❛s s❡❣✉✐♥t❡s ❢✉♥çõ❡s ❞❡ ❞❡♠❛♥❞❛ ♣♦r ❝❛❞❛ ✈❛r✐❡❞❛❞❡✿

CD,t(i) =

PD,t(i)

PD,t

−ε

CD,t e CI,t(i) =

PI,t(i)

PI,t

−ε

CI,t. ✭✸✮

❆s ✈❛r✐❡❞❛❞❡s ❞❡ ❜❡♥s ❡ s❡r✈✐ç♦s sã♦ s✉❜st✐t✉t❛s ✐♠♣❡r❢❡✐t❛s✱ ♦ q✉❡ ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛ q✉❡ ❝❛❞❛ ✜r♠❛ ♣♦ss✉✐ ❛❧❣✉♠ ♣♦❞❡r ❞❡ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦✳ ■st♦ s❡ r❡✢❡t❡ ❡♠ ✉♠❛ ❝✉r✈❛ ❞❡ ❞❡♠❛♥❞❛ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡ ✐♥❝❧✐♥❛❞❛ ✭❡q✉❛çã♦ ✭✸✮✮✳

❖s í♥❞✐❝❡s ❞❡ ♣r❡ç♦s ❛ss♦❝✐❛❞♦s✱ ♣♦r ♦r✐❣❡♠ ❞♦s ♣r♦❞✉t♦s✱ sã♦✿

PD,t=

Z 1

0

PD,t(i)1−εdi

1−1ε

e PI,t=

Z 1

0

PI,t(i)1−εdi

1−1ε

,

❡ ♦ í♥❞✐❝❡ ❛❣r❡❣❛❞♦ ❞❡ ♣r❡ç♦s ❞❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ é ❞❛❞♦ ♣♦r✿

Pt=

h

(1−α)P_D,t1−η+αP_I,t1−ηi

1 1−η

.

❆s ❞❡♠❛✐s ❝♦♥❞✐çõ❡s ❞❡ ♣r✐♠❡✐r❛ ♦r❞❡♠ ♣❛r❛ ♦ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛ ❞❡ ♦t✐♠✐③❛çã♦ ❞♦ ❝♦♥s✉♠✐❞♦r r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛t✐✈♦ sã♦✿✾

Wt/Pt=Ntϕ(Ct−hCt−1)σ, ✭✹✮

Γt(Ct−hCt−1)−σ =βEt

Γt+1(Ct+1−hCt)−σRt

Pt

Pt+1

, ✭✺✮

Γt(Ct−hCt−1)−σ =βEt

Γt+1(Ct+1−hCt)−σR∗tΦt(

StBt

PtY

)St+1

St

Pt

Pt+1

. ✭✻✮

✼_{❙✉♣♦♠♦s q✉❡ ♦ ❛❣❡♥t❡ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛t✐✈♦ t♦♠❛ ❡st❡ ♣rê♠✐♦ ❞❡ r✐s❝♦ ❝♦♠♦ ❞❛❞♦ q✉❛♥❞♦ ❢❛③ s✉❛s ❡s❝♦❧❤❛s ❞❡ ❝♦♥s✉♠♦ ❡}

♣♦rt❢ó❧✐♦✳

✽_{P❛r❛ ✉♠❛ ❛♥á❧✐s❡ ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛s ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛s ❞❡ s❡ ✐♥❞✉③✐r ❡st❛❝✐♦♥❛r✐❡❞❛❞❡ ❡♠ ♠♦❞❡❧♦s ❞❡ ♣❡q✉❡♥❛s ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛s ❛❜❡rt❛s✱}

✈❡r ❙❝❤♠✐tt✲●r♦❤❡ ❡ ❯r✐❜❡ ✭✷✵✵✸✮✳

✾_{❆ ❡s❝♦❧❤❛ ót✐♠❛ ❞❡✈❡ s❛t✐s❢❛③❡r✱ ❛✐♥❞❛✱ ✉♠❛ ❝♦♥❞✐çã♦ ❞❡ tr❛♥s✈❡rs❛❧✐❞❛❞❡ ♣❛❞rã♦✳}

❆ ❡q✉❛çã♦ ✭✹✮ ❞❡✜♥❡ ❛ ♦❢❡rt❛ ót✐♠❛ ❞❡ tr❛❜❛❧❤♦✱ ❡ ✭✺✮ ❡ ✭✻✮ sã♦ ❡q✉❛çõ❡s ❞❡ ❊✉❧❡r ♣❛❞rã♦✳ ❆s ❞✉❛s ú❧t✐♠❛s ❡q✉❛çõ❡s ♣♦❞❡♠ s❡r ❝♦♠❜✐♥❛❞❛s ♣❛r❛ s❡ ♦❜t❡r ✉♠❛ ✈❡rsã♦ ❞❛ ❝♦♥❞✐çã♦ ❞❡ ♣❛r✐❞❛❞❡ ❞❡s❝♦❜❡rt❛ ❞❡ ❥✉r♦s✿

Et

Γt+1(Ct+1−hCt)−σ

Pt

Pt+1

R∗_tΦt(

StBt

PtY

)St+1

St

−Rt

= 0. ✭✼✮

✷✳✷ Pr♦❞✉t♦r❡s ❞♦♠ést✐❝♦s

❍á ✉♠ ❝♦♥tí♥✉♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❞✉t♦r❡s ❞♦♠ést✐❝♦s ♦♣❡r❛♥❞♦ ❡♠ ❝♦♥❝♦rrê♥❝✐❛ ♠♦♥♦♣♦❧íst✐❝❛✱ ✐♥❞❡①❛❞♦s ♣♦r

i∈[0,1]✳ ❈❛❞❛ ✜r♠❛ ♣r♦❞✉③ ✉♠ ❜❡♠ ♦✉ s❡r✈✐ç♦ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛❞♦yD,t(i) ✉t✐❧✐③❛♥❞♦ tr❛❜❛❧❤♦ ❝♦♠♦ ✐♥s✉♠♦✳

❆s t❡❝♥♦❧♦❣✐❛s ❞❡ ♣r♦❞✉çã♦ ❡stã♦ s✉❥❡✐t❛s ❛ ✉♠ ♠❡s♠♦ ❝❤♦q✉❡ ❞❡ ♣r♦❞✉t✐✈✐❞❛❞❡✱ ❞❛❞♦ ♣♦rAt✿

yD,t(i) =AtNt(i).

❱✐s❛♥❞♦ ❢❛❝✐❧✐t❛r ❛ ❡①♣♦s✐çã♦✱ ❞❡♥♦t❛♠♦s ♦ ❝✉st♦ ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧ r❡❛❧✱ ❝♦♠✉♠ ❛ t♦❞♦s ♦s ♣r♦❞✉t♦r❡s ❞♦✲ ♠ést✐❝♦s✱ ♣♦r✿

M CD,t=

Wt

AtPD,t

.

❆ss✐♠✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❡s❝r❡✈❡r ♦ ❧✉❝r♦ ❞❡ ✉♠❛ ✜r♠❛i❝♦♠♦✿

ΠD,t(i) =yD,t(i)(PD,t(i)−PD,tM CD,t).

❆s ✜r♠❛s r❡❛✈❛❧✐❛♠ s❡✉s ♣r❡ç♦s ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ✐♥❢r❡q✉❡♥t❡✱ ❝♦♠♦ ♥♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❞❡ ❈❛❧✈♦ ✭✶✾✽✸✮✳ P❛r❛ ❝❛❞❛ ✜r♠❛✱ ✐st♦ ♦❝♦rr❡ ❝♦♠ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡1−θD ❛ ❝❛❞❛ ♣❡rí♦❞♦ ❡ ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥t❡ ❞♦s r❡❛❥✉st❡s ❞❛s

❞❡♠❛✐s ✜r♠❛s✳ P♦rt❛♥t♦✱ ❡♠ ❝❛❞❛ ♣❡rí♦❞♦ ✉♠❛ ❢r❛çã♦(1−θD)❞❡ ✜r♠❛s r❡❛❥✉st❛ s❡✉s ♣r❡ç♦s ❞❡ ♠❛♥❡✐r❛

ót✐♠❛✱ ❡♥q✉❛♥t♦ ❛ ❢r❛çã♦ r❡st❛♥t❡(θD) s❡❣✉❡ ✉♠❛ r❡❣r❛ ❞❡ ✐♥❞❡①❛çã♦✳ ❊s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ✜r♠❛s q✉❡ ♥ã♦

r❡❛❥✉st❛♠ ❞❡ ♠❛♥❡✐r❛ ót✐♠❛ ♥♦ ♣❡rí♦❞♦t❝♦rr✐❣❡♠ ♦ ♣r❡ç♦ ♣r❛t✐❝❛❞♦ ♥♦ ♣❡rí♦❞♦ ❛♥t❡r✐♦r ❞❡ ❛❝♦r❞♦ ❝♦♠✿

PD,t(i) =PD,t−1(i)

PD,t−1

PD,t−2 δD

,

♦♥❞❡ ♦ ♣❛râ♠❡tr♦δD ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛ ♦ ❣r❛✉ ❞❡ ✐♥❞❡①❛çã♦ à ✐♥✢❛çã♦ ♣❛ss❛❞❛✳

❚♦❞❛s ❛s ✜r♠❛s q✉❡ r❡♦t✐♠✐③❛♠ ♥♦ ♣❡rí♦❞♦ t s❡ ❞❡♣❛r❛♠ ❝♦♠ ♦ ♠❡s♠♦ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛ ✐♥t❡rt❡♠♣♦r❛❧

❡ ❡s❝♦❧❤❡♠ ♦ ♠❡s♠♦ ♣r❡ç♦ XD,t(i) = XD,t✳ P♦rt❛♥t♦✱ ♦ í♥❞✐❝❡ ❛❣r❡❣❛❞♦ ❞❡ ♣r❡ç♦s ♣❛r❛ ♦s ♣r♦❞✉t♦s

❞♦♠ést✐❝♦s ❡✈♦❧✉✐ ❞❡ ❛❝♦r❞♦ ❝♦♠✿

PD,t =



(1−θ_D)X (1−ε)

D,t +θD PD,t−1

PD,t−1

PD,t−2

δD!1−ε



 1/(1−ε)

. ✭✽✮

❆s ✜r♠❛s ✈❡♥❞❡♠ s❡✉s ♣r♦❞✉t♦s t❛♥t♦ ♥♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❞♦♠ést✐❝♦ q✉❛♥t♦ ♥♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❡①t❡r♥♦✳ ❙✉♣♦♠♦s

q✉❡ ❛ ❞❡♠❛♥❞❛ ❡①t❡r♥❛ ♣♦ss✉✐ ❛ ♠❡s♠❛ ❢♦r♠❛ ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❛❧ ❞❛ ❞❡♠❛♥❞❛ ❞♦♠ést✐❝❛ ✭✸✮✱ ❞❡ ♠♦❞♦ q✉❡ ✉♠❛ ✜r♠❛ q✉❡ r❡❛❥✉st♦✉ s❡✉ ♣r❡ç♦ ♥♦ ♣❡rí♦❞♦t ❡♥❢r❡♥t❛ ❛ s❡❣✉✐♥t❡ s❡q✉ê♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ❞❡♠❛♥❞❛s✿

y_D,t+τ|t= XD,t

PD,t+τ

PD,t+τ−1

PD,t−1

δD!−ε

(CD,t+τ +CD,t∗ +τ), ✭✾✮

♦♥❞❡ C_D,t∗ _+τ é ❛ ❞❡♠❛♥❞❛ ❡①t❡r♥❛ ♣♦r ♣r♦❞✉t♦s ♣r♦❞✉③✐❞♦s ❞♦♠❡st✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ ✭❛ s❡r ❞❡t❛❧❤❛❞❛ ❛❜❛✐①♦✮✳

▲❡✈❛♥❞♦ ❡♠ ❝♦♥t❛ ❛ r✐❣✐❞❡③ ❞❡ ♣r❡ç♦s✱ ✉♠❛ ✜r♠❛ ❡s❝♦❧❤❡♥❞♦ ♦ ♣r❡ç♦ ót✐♠♦ ♥♦ ♣❡rí♦❞♦ t♠❛①✐♠✐③❛ ♦

✈❛❧♦r ♣r❡s❡♥t❡ ❞♦ s❡✉ ❧✉❝r♦ ❡s♣❡r❛❞♦✿

Et

∞

X

τ=0

θ_DτΘt,t+τyD,t+τ|t

"

XD,t

PD,t+τ−1

PD,t−1 δD

−PD,t+τM CD,t+τ

#

,

s✉❥❡✐t❛ à s❡q✉ê♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ❞❡♠❛♥❞❛s ❞❛❞❛s ♣❡❧❛ ❡q✉❛çã♦ ✭✾✮✱ ♦♥❞❡ Θt,t+τ = βτΓ_Γt+τ_{t P}P_t+τt U_Uc,t+τ_c,t é ♦ ❢❛t♦r

❡st♦❝ást✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❞❡s❝♦♥t♦ ♥♦♠✐♥❛❧ ❞♦ ❝♦♥s✉♠✐❞♦r r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛t✐✈♦✳✶✵

✷✳✸ ❋✐r♠❛s ✈❛r❡❥✐st❛s ✐♠♣♦rt❛❞♦r❛s

❋✐r♠❛s ✈❛r❡❥✐st❛s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♠ ♣r♦❞✉t♦s ❛❞q✉✐r✐❞♦s ❛ ♣r❡ç♦s ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦s ♥♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ✐♥t❡r♥❛❝✐♦♥❛❧✱ tr❛♥s✲ ❢♦r♠❛♠ ♦s ♠❡s♠♦s ❡♠ ♣r♦❞✉t♦s ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛❞♦s ❡ ♦s ✈❡♥❞❡♠ ♥♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❞♦♠ést✐❝♦✳ P♦r s✐♠♣❧✐❝✐❞❛❞❡✱ s✉♣♦♠♦s q✉❡ ❡st❛ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛çã♦ é ❢❡✐t❛ ❛ ❝✉st♦ ③❡r♦✳ ❖ s❡t♦r ✈❛r❡❥✐st❛ t❛♠❜é♠ é ❝❛r❛❝t❡r✐③❛❞♦ ♣♦r ❝♦♥✲ ❝♦rrê♥❝✐❛ ♠♦♥♦♣♦❧íst✐❝❛✱ ❞❡ ♠♦❞♦ q✉❡ ❝❛❞❛ ✜r♠❛ ♣♦ss✉✐ ❛❧❣✉♠ ♣♦❞❡r ❞❡ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ♣❛r❛ ✜①❛r s❡✉ ♣r❡ç♦✳ ❖s ♣r❡ç♦s sã♦ ✜①❛❞♦s ❡♠ ♠♦❡❞❛ ❧♦❝❛❧ ❡ t❛♠❜é♠ ❡stã♦ s✉❥❡✐t♦s ❛ ❛❥✉st❡s ✐♥❢r❡q✉❡♥t❡s ❡ ❝♦rr❡çã♦ ♣♦r ✐♥✢❛çã♦ ♣❛ss❛❞❛✳ ■st♦ ❢❛③ ❝♦♠ q✉❡ ♦ r❡♣❛ss❡ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛çõ❡s ♥♦s ♣r❡ç♦s ✐♥t❡r♥❛❝✐♦♥❛✐s ❡ ♥❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❝â♠❜✐♦ ♥♦♠✐♥❛❧ ♣❛r❛ ♦s ♣r❡ç♦s ❛♦ ❝♦♥s✉♠✐❞♦r ♥♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❞♦♠ést✐❝♦ s❡❥❛ ✐♠♣❡r❢❡✐t♦✳

❈♦♠♦ ♥♦ ❝❛s♦ ❞♦s ♣r♦❞✉t♦r❡s ❞♦♠ést✐❝♦s✱ t♦❞❛s ❛s ✜r♠❛s ✐♠♣♦rt❛❞♦r❛s q✉❡ r❡♦t✐♠✐③❛♠ ♥♦ ♣❡rí♦❞♦t

s❡ ❞❡♣❛r❛♠ ❝♦♠ ♦ ♠❡s♠♦ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛ ✐♥t❡rt❡♠♣♦r❛❧ ❡ ❡s❝♦❧❤❡♠ ♦ ♠❡s♠♦ ♣r❡ç♦XI,t(i) =XI,t✳ P♦rt❛♥t♦✱ ♦

í♥❞✐❝❡ ❛❣r❡❣❛❞♦ ❞❡ ♣r❡ç♦s ♣❛r❛ ♦s ♣r♦❞✉t♦s ✐♠♣♦rt❛❞♦s ✈❡♥❞✐❞♦s ♥♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❞♦♠ést✐❝♦ ❡✈♦❧✉✐ ❞❡ ❛❝♦r❞♦ ❝♦♠✿

PI,t=



(1−θI)X (1−ε)

I,t +θI PI,t−1

PI,t−1

PI,t−2

δI!1−ε



 1/(1−ε)

,

♦♥❞❡ θI é ♦ ♣❛râ♠❡tr♦ ❞❡ r✐❣✐❞❡③ ❞❡ ♣r❡ç♦s ❡δI é ♦ ♣❛râ♠❡tr♦ ❞❡ ✐♥❞❡①❛çã♦✳

❖ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛ ❞❡ ♦t✐♠✐③❛çã♦ ❞❛s ✜r♠❛s ✈❛r❡❥✐st❛s t❛♠❜é♠ é ❛♥á❧♦❣♦ ❛♦ ❞♦s ♣r♦❞✉t♦r❡s ❞♦♠ést✐❝♦s✳

✶✵_{❖ ❧❡✐t♦r ❢❛♠✐❧✐❛r✐③❛❞♦ ❝♦♠ ❡st❡ t✐♣♦ ❞❡ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ♣♦❞❡ ❡str❛♥❤❛r ♦ ✉s♦ ❞♦ ❢❛t♦r ❡st♦❝ást✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❞❡s❝♦♥t♦ ♣❛r❛ ✈❛❧♦r❛çã♦}

❞♦s ❧✉❝r♦s ❢✉t✉r♦s ❞❛s ✜r♠❛s ❡♠ ✉♠ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❝♦♠ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦s ✐♥❝♦♠♣❧❡t♦s✳ ❊♠❜♦r❛ ❛r❜✐trár✐❛✱ ❡st❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s❡ é ✐♥ó❝✉❛✱ ♣♦✐s ♥ã♦ ❛❢❡t❛ ❛ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛çã♦ ❞❡ ♣r✐♠❡✐r❛ ♦r❞❡♠ ❞♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❝♦♠ ❛ q✉❛❧ tr❛❜❛❧❤❛r❡♠♦s✳ ❖❜t❡rí❛♠♦s ❡①❛t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❛ ♠❡s♠❛ ❡s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛çã♦ s♦❜ ❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s❡ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❧✉❝r♦s ❢✉t✉r♦s sã♦ ❞❡s❝♦♥t❛❞♦s à t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❥✉r♦s ♥♦♠✐♥❛❧✳

❙✉❥❡✐t❛s à s❡q✉ê♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ❞❡♠❛♥❞❛s

CI,t+τ|t=

XI,t

PI,t+τ

PI,t+τ−1

PI,t−1

δI!−ε

CI,t+τ,

❛s ✜r♠❛s ♠❛①✐♠✐③❛♠ ♦ ✈❛❧♦r ♣r❡s❡♥t❡ ❞♦s ❧✉❝r♦s ❡s♣❡r❛❞♦s

Et

∞

X

τ=0

θ_IτΘt,t+τCI,t+τ|t

"

XI,t

PI,t+τ−1

PI,t−1 δI

−St+τPt∗+τ

#

,

♦♥❞❡ P_t∗ é ♦ ♣r❡ç♦ ❞♦s ♣r♦❞✉t♦s ✐♠♣♦rt❛❞♦s ♥♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ✐♥t❡r♥❛❝✐♦♥❛❧✳

✷✳✹ ▲❡✐ ❞♦ ♣r❡ç♦ ú♥✐❝♦✱ t❛①❛s ❞❡ ❝â♠❜✐♦ ❡ t❡r♠♦s ❞❡ tr♦❝❛

P♦r ❝♦♥✈❡♥✐ê♥❝✐❛✱ ❞❡✜♥✐♠♦s ❛q✉✐ ❛❧❣✉♥s ♦❜❥❡t♦s ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r❡ss❡✳ ❆ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❝â♠❜✐♦ r❡❛❧ Qt é ❞❛❞❛ ♣❡❧❛

r❛③ã♦ ❡♥tr❡ ♣r❡ç♦s ✐♥t❡r♥❛❝✐♦♥❛✐s ❡ ♣r❡ç♦s ❞♦♠ést✐❝♦s ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛❞♦s ♥❛ ♠❡s♠❛ ♠♦❡❞❛✿

Qt≡StPt∗/Pt.

❖s t❡r♠♦s ❞❡ tr♦❝❛T oTtsã♦ ❞❡✜♥✐❞♦s ❝♦♠♦ ♦ ♣r❡ç♦ r❡❧❛t✐✈♦ ❡♥tr❡ ✐♠♣♦rt❛çõ❡s ❡ ❡①♣♦rt❛çõ❡s ❞❛ ❡❝♦♥♦✲

♠✐❛✿✶✶

T oTt=PI,t/PD,t.

P♦r ú❧t✐♠♦✱ ❞❡✜♥✐♠♦s ❛ r❛③ã♦ ❡♥tr❡ ♣r❡ç♦s ✐♥t❡r♥❛❝✐♦♥❛✐s ❝♦♥✈❡rt✐❞♦s ❡♠ ❘❡❛✐s ❡ ♣r❡ç♦s ❞❡ ♣r♦❞✉t♦s ✐♠♣♦rt❛❞♦s ♥♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❞♦♠ést✐❝♦✿

ΨI,t=StPt∗/PI,t.

❆ ✈❛r✐á✈❡❧ΨI,t ♠❡❞❡ ❞❡s✈✐♦s ❞❛ ▲❡✐ ❞♦ Pr❡ç♦ Ú♥✐❝♦ ✭▲P❯✮ ♣❛r❛ ♦s ♣r♦❞✉t♦s ✐♠♣♦rt❛❞♦s✳

✷✳✺ P♦❧ít✐❝❛ ♠♦♥❡tár✐❛

❆ ♣♦❧ít✐❝❛ ♠♦♥❡tár✐❛ é ❝❛r❛❝t❡r✐③❛❞❛ ♣♦r ✉♠❛ r❡❣r❛ ❞❡ ❥✉r♦s ❞✐st✐♥t❛ ♣❛r❛ ❝❛❞❛ r❡❣✐♠❡✳ ◆❛ ♣r✐♠❡✐r❛ ♣❛rt❡ ❞❛ ❛♠♦str❛✱ ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞❡♥t❡ ❛♦ s✐st❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❜❛♥❞❛s ❝❛♠❜✐❛✐s✱ ♠♦❞❡❧❛♠♦s ❡①♣❧✐❝✐t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❛ r❡❛çã♦ ❞♦ ❇❈❇ ❛♦s ❞❡s✈✐♦s ❞❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❝â♠❜✐♦ ♥♦♠✐♥❛❧ ❡♠ r❡❧❛çã♦ ❛♦ s❡✉ ♥í✈❡❧ ❞❡s❡❥❛❞♦✳ ◆❛ s❡❣✉♥❞❛ ♣❛rt❡ ❞❛ ❛♠♦str❛✱ ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞❡♥t❡ ❛♦ s✐st❡♠❛ ❞❡ ♠❡t❛s ♣❛r❛ ❛ ✐♥✢❛çã♦✱ ❛ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛ ❞❛ r❡❣r❛ ❞❡ ❥✉r♦s é ❛ r❡s♣♦st❛ ❛♦s ❞❡s✈✐♦s ❞❛ ✐♥✢❛çã♦ ❡♠ r❡❧❛çã♦ à ♠❡t❛✳ P♦r ❝♦♥✈❡♥✐ê♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ❡①♣♦s✐çã♦✱ ❞❡s❝r❡✈❡♠♦s ❛q✉✐ ❛s r❡❣r❛s ❞❡ ❥✉r♦s ❞❡ ♠❛♥❡✐r❛ ❤❡✉ríst✐❝❛ ❡ ♣♦st❡r❣❛♠♦s ❛ ❛♣r❡s❡♥t❛çã♦ ❞❛s ❡q✉❛çõ❡s ♣❛r❛ ❛ ❙❡çã♦ ✷✳✽✱ ♦♥❞❡ ❞❡t❛❧❤❛♠♦s ❛ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛çã♦ ❞❡ ♣r✐♠❡✐r❛ ♦r❞❡♠ ❞♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦✳

✶✶_{◆♦t❡ q✉❡ ❡st❡ é ♦ ✐♥✈❡rs♦ ❞❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❞❡ t❡r♠♦s ❞❡ tr♦❝❛ ♠❛✐s ✉s✉❛❧✳ ❆❞♦t❛♠♦s ❡st❛ ❝♦♥✈❡♥çã♦ ♣❛r❛ ❢❛❝✐❧✐t❛r ❛}

❝♦♠♣❛r❛çã♦ ❞♦s ♥♦ss♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ❝♦♠ ♦s ❞❡ ❏✉st✐♥✐❛♥♦ ❡ Pr❡st♦♥ ✭✷✵✶✵✮✳

1.25

1 15 1.20

1.10 1.15

1.05

0.95 1.00

0.90

n-95

g-95 ct-9

5

ec-95 b-96 pr-96 n-96 g-96 ct-9

6

ec-96 b-97 pr-97 n-97 g-97 ct-9

7

ec-97 b-98 pr-98 n-98 g-98 ct-9

8

ec-98

Ju Au Oc De Fe Ap Ju Au Oc De Fe Ap Ju Au Oc De Fe Ap Ju Au Oc De

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✶✿ ❙✐st❡♠❛ ❞❡ ♠✐♥✐✲ ❡ ♠❛❝r♦✲❜❛♥❞❛s ❝❛♠❜✐❛✐s ✭❧✐♥❤❛s só❧✐❞❛s ❡ tr❛❝❡❥❛❞❛s✱ r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡✮ ❡ ❛ ❡✈♦❧✉çã♦ ❞❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❝â♠❜✐♦ ❡♠ ❘✩✴❯❙✩ ✭♣♦♥t♦s ❛③✉✐s✮✳

✷✳✺✳✶ ❘❡❣✐♠❡ ❞❡ ❜❛♥❞❛s ❝❛♠❜✐❛✐s

❆♣ós ✉♠ ♣❡rí♦❞♦ ❞❡ ✢✉t✉❛çã♦ ❝❛♠❜✐❛❧ ❝♦♠ ❜❛♥❞❛s r❡❧❛t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡ ❧❛r❣❛s✱ ✈✐❣❡♥t❡s ♥♦s ♣r✐♠❡✐r♦s ✶✷ ♠❡✲ s❡s ❛♣ós ♦ ❧❛♥ç❛♠❡♥t♦ ❞♦ P❧❛♥♦ ❘❡❛❧✱ ❡♠ ❥✉♥❤♦ ❞❡ ✶✾✾✺ ♦ ❇❈❇ ❛❞♦t♦✉ ✉♠ s✐st❡♠❛ ❞❡ ✏♠✐♥✐✲❜❛♥❞❛s ❝❛♠❜✐❛✐s✑✱ q✉❡ ♣❛ss❛r❛♠ ❛ s❡r r❡❛❥✉st❛❞❛s ♣❡r✐♦❞✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❛❝♦r❞♦ ❝♦♠ ✉♠ r✐t♠♦ ❞❡ ❞❡s✈❛❧♦r✐③❛çã♦ ❡ss❡♥❝✐❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥íst✐❝♦✳✶✷ _{❆ ♠❛♥✉t❡♥çã♦ ❞❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❝â♠❜✐♦ ♥♦♠✐♥❛❧ ❞❡♥tr♦ ❞♦s ❧✐♠✐t❡s ❡st❛❜❡✲} ❧❡❝✐❞♦s ❡r❛ ✐♠♣❧❡♠❡♥t❛❞❛ ❝♦♠ ♦ ❛✉①í❧✐♦ ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r✈❡♥çõ❡s ❞♦ ❇❈❇ ♥♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❝â♠❜✐♦ ❡ ♠✉❞❛♥ç❛s ♥❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❥✉r♦s ✭❡♠ ✉♠ ❝♦♥t❡①t♦ ❞❡ ♠♦❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡ ✐♠♣❡r❢❡✐t❛ ❞❡ ❝❛♣✐t❛✐s✮✳ ❆ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✶ ♠♦str❛ ❛ ❡✈♦❧✉çã♦ ❞❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❝â♠❜✐♦ ♥♦♠✐♥❛❧ ❡♠ ❘✩✴❯❙✩✱ ❞♦s ❧✐♠✐t❡s ✐♥❢❡r✐♦r ❡ s✉♣❡r✐♦r ❞❛s ♠✐♥✐✲❜❛♥❞❛s ❡ ❞❛s ♠❛❝r♦✲❜❛♥❞❛s✱ ❞❡ ❥✉♥❤♦ ❞❡ ✶✾✾✺ ❛té ❞❡③❡♠❜r♦ ❞❡ ✶✾✾✽✳

P❛r❛ ✜♥s ❞❡ ♠♦❞❡❧❛❣❡♠ ❞❛ r❡❣r❛ ❞❡ ❥✉r♦s ✉t✐❧✐③❛❞❛ ❞✉r❛♥t❡ ♦ r❡❣✐♠❡ ❞❡ ❜❛♥❞❛s ❝❛♠❜✐❛✐s✱ s✉♣♦♠♦s q✉❡ ♦ ❇❈❇ t✐♥❤❛ ❝♦♠♦ ♦❜❥❡t✐✈♦ ❛ ♠❛♥✉t❡♥çã♦ ❞❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❝â♠❜✐♦ ♥♦♠✐♥❛❧ ❡♠ t♦r♥♦ ❞♦ ❝❡♥tr♦ ❞❛s ❜❛♥❞❛s ❝❛♠❜✐❛✐s✳ ❊st❛ ♣r❡♠✐ss❛ é ❝♦♠♣❛tí✈❡❧ ❝♦♠ ♦ ❝♦♠♣♦rt❛♠❡♥t♦ ❞❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❝â♠❜✐♦ ♥♦♠✐♥❛❧ ♥❡st❡ ♣❡rí♦❞♦✳ ▼❛✐s ❡s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛♠❡♥t❡✱ s❡❣✉✐♠♦s ❈úr❞✐❛ ❡ ❋✐♥♦❝❝❤✐❛r♦ ✭✷✵✶✸✮ ❛♦ s✉♣♦r q✉❡ ♦ ❇❈❇ s❡❣✉✐❛ ✉♠❛ r❡❣r❛ ❞❡ ❥✉r♦s ♣❛❞rã♦✱ ❝♦♠ r❡s♣♦st❛s à ✐♥✢❛çã♦ ❡ ❛t✐✈✐❞❛❞❡ ❡❝♦♥ô♠✐❝❛✱ ♠❛s ♠♦❞✐✜❝❛❞❛ ♣❛r❛ ✐♥❝❧✉✐r ♦ ❞❡s✈✐♦ ❞❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❝â♠❜✐♦ ♥♦♠✐♥❛❧ ❡♠ r❡❧❛çã♦ ❛♦ ❝❡♥tr♦ ❞❛s ❜❛♥❞❛s ❝❛♠❜✐❛✐s✳

✷✳✺✳✷ ❘❡❣✐♠❡ ❞❡ ♠❡t❛s ♣❛r❛ ❛ ✐♥✢❛çã♦

❆ ♣♦❧ít✐❝❛ ♠♦♥❡tár✐❛ ♥♦ r❡❣✐♠❡ ❞❡ ♠❡t❛s ♣❛r❛ ❛ ✐♥✢❛çã♦ s❡❣✉❡ ✉♠❛ r❡❣r❛ ❞❡ ❥✉r♦s ♣❛❞rã♦ ♥❛ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❛✱ ❝♦♠ ✉♠❛ ♣❡q✉❡♥❛ ♠♦❞✐✜❝❛çã♦✳ ❊♠❜♦r❛ ❛ ♣♦❧ít✐❝❛ ❝❛♠❜✐❛❧ ♥❡st❡ r❡❣✐♠❡ s❡❥❛ ❛ ❞❡ ❧✐✈r❡ ✢✉t✉❛çã♦ ❞❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❝â♠❜✐♦ ♥♦♠✐♥❛❧✱ ♣❡r♠✐t✐♠♦s ✉♠❛ r❡s♣♦st❛ ❞♦ ❇❈❇ à ✈❛r✐❛çã♦ ❝❛♠❜✐❛❧✳ ◆♦ ♠❛✐s✱ ❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❥✉r♦s

✶✷_{❆s ❝❤❛♠❛❞❛s ✏♠❛❝r♦✲❜❛♥❞❛s✑ ❝❛♠❜✐❛✐s ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛r❛♠ ❡①✐st✐♥❞♦✱ ❡♠❜♦r❛ ♥ã♦ t✐✈❡ss❡♠ ♠❛✐s ♥❡♥❤✉♠❛ ✐♠♣♦rtâ♥❝✐❛ ♣rá✲}

t✐❝❛✳

r❡s♣♦♥❞❡ à ❛t✐✈✐❞❛❞❡ ❡❝♦♥ô♠✐❝❛ ❡ ❛ ❞❡s✈✐♦s ❞❛ ✐♥✢❛çã♦ ❡♠ r❡❧❛çã♦ à ♠❡t❛✳

✷✳✻ ❙❡t♦r ❡①t❡r♥♦

❆ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ ❞♦♠ést✐❝❛ é s✉♣♦st❛ ♣❡q✉❡♥❛ ♦ s✉✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ♣❛r❛ ♥ã♦ ❛❢❡t❛r ❛ ❞✐♥â♠✐❝❛ ❞❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ ♠✉♥❞✐❛❧✱ ❞❡ ♠♦❞♦ q✉❡ ♦ s❡t♦r ❡①t❡r♥♦ é tr❛t❛❞♦ ❝♦♠♦ ❡①ó❣❡♥♦✳ P♦r s✐♠♣❧✐❝✐❞❛❞❡✱ s✉♣♦♠♦s q✉❡ s✉❛ ❞✐♥â♠✐❝❛ ❡✈♦❧✉✐ ❞❡ ❛❝♦r❞♦ ❝♦♠ ✉♠ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❞❡ ✈❡t♦r❡s ❛✉t♦r❡❣r❡ss✐✈♦s ✭❱❆❘✮ ❞❡ ♣r✐♠❡✐r❛ ♦r❞❡♠✳✶✸ _{❆s ✈❛r✐á✈❡✐s} ✐♥❝❧✉í❞❛s ♥♦ ❱❆❘ sã♦ ♣r♦❞✉t♦ Y∗

t ✱ ✐♥✢❛çã♦ πt∗ ≡ log(Pt∗/Pt∗−1) ❡ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❥✉r♦s ❡①t❡r♥♦s i∗t ≈ log(R∗t)✳

❖s ❝❤♦q✉❡s sã♦ ❞❡♥♦t❛❞♦s ♣♦rε∗_y✱ε∗_π ❡ ε∗_i✳

P❛r❛ ♣❡r♠✐t✐r ❛ ✐❞❡♥t✐✜❝❛çã♦ ❞❡ ✉♠ ❝❤♦q✉❡ ♠♦♥❡tár✐♦ ❡①t❡r♥♦✱ ✐♠♣♦♠♦s ❛ ♦r❞❡♥❛çã♦ ❞❡ ❈❤♦❧❡s❦② ✉s✉❛❧✱ ❝♦♠ ❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❥✉r♦s ❡①t❡r♥❛ ♦r❞❡♥❛❞❛ ♣♦r ú❧t✐♠♦✳ ❆ss✐♠✱ ♦ ❱❆❘✭✶✮ ♣♦❞❡ s❡r ❡s❝r✐t♦ ❝♦♠♦

A0 

 

Y_t∗ π∗

t

i∗_t



 =A1



 

Y_t∗₋₁ π∗

t−1

i∗_t−1

  +   

ε∗_y ε∗

π

ε∗_i



 ,

♦♥❞❡ ❛s ♠❛tr✐③❡s ❞❡ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡s sã♦

A0= 

 

1 0 0

a0,πy 1 0

a0,iy a0,iπ 1





 A1=



 

a1,yy a1,yπ a1,yi

a1,πy a1,ππ a1,πi

a1,iy a1,iπ a1,ii



 .

✷✳✼ ❊q✉✐❧í❜r✐♦ ❣❡r❛❧

❖ ❡q✉✐❧í❜r✐♦ ♥♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❜❡♥s ❡ s❡r✈✐ç♦s ❞♦♠ést✐❝♦ r❡q✉❡r ✐❣✉❛❧❞❛❞❡ ❡♥tr❡ ❛ ♣r♦❞✉çã♦ ❞♦♠ést✐❝❛ ❡ ❛ s♦♠❛ ❞❡ ❝♦♥s✉♠♦ ❞♦♠ést✐❝♦ ❡ ❡①♣♦rt❛çõ❡s✿

Yt=CD,t+CD,t∗ ,

♦♥❞❡ s✉♣♦♠♦s q✉❡ ❛ ❞❡♠❛♥❞❛ ❡①t❡r♥❛ ♣❡❧♦s ♣r♦❞✉t♦s ♣r♦❞✉③✐❞♦s ❞♦♠❡st✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ s❡❥❛ ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦r

C_D,t∗ =

PD,t/St

P∗

t

−η

Y_t∗. ✭✶✵✮

❆ ❡①♣r❡ssã♦ ❛❝✐♠❛ r❡✢❡t❡ ❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s❡✱ ❥á ✐♠♣❧í❝✐t❛ ♥❛ ❡q✉❛çã♦ ✭✾✮✱ ❞❡ q✉❡ ♦s ♣r❡ç♦s ❞❡ ❡①♣♦rt❛çã♦ ❞♦s ♣r♦❞✉t♦s ❞♦♠ést✐❝♦s sã♦ ✐❣✉❛✐s ❛♦s ♣r❡ç♦s ♣r❛t✐❝❛❞♦s ♥♦ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❞♦♠ést✐❝♦✱ ❝♦♥✈❡rt✐❞♦s ❡♠ ♠♦❡❞❛ ❡str❛♥❣❡✐r❛ ♣❡❧❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❝â♠❜✐♦ ♥♦♠✐♥❛❧ ❞❡ ❝❛❞❛ ♣❡rí♦❞♦✳

❆❧é♠ ❞✐ss♦✱ s✉♣♦♠♦s q✉❡✱ ❡♠ t❡r♠♦s ❧íq✉✐❞♦s✱ ♥ã♦ ❤❛❥❛ ❡♥❞✐✈✐❞❛♠❡♥t♦ ❞♦♠ést✐❝♦ ❡♠ ❡q✉✐❧í❜r✐♦✱ ❞❡ ♠♦❞♦ q✉❡Dt= 0 ❡♠ t♦❞♦ ♣❡rí♦❞♦✳ ❆s ❞❡♠❛✐s ❝♦♥❞✐çõ❡s ❞❡ ❡q✉✐í❜r✐♦ sã♦ ♣❛❞rã♦✳

✶✸_{❖s ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡s ❞♦ ❱❆❘✭✶✮ sã♦ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦s ♣r❡✈✐❛♠❡♥t❡ ❡ ♠❛♥t✐❞♦s ✜①♦s ❞✉r❛♥t❡ ❛ ❡st✐♠❛çã♦ ❞♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦✳}

✷✳✽ ❆♣r♦①✐♠❛çã♦ ❞❡ ♣r✐♠❡✐r❛ ♦r❞❡♠ ❞♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦

❈♦♠♦ ♥❛ ♠❛✐♦r ♣❛rt❡ ❞❛ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❛ s♦❜r❡ ♠♦❞❡❧♦s ❉❙●❊✱ tr❛❜❛❧❤❛♠♦s ❝♦♠ ✉♠❛ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛çã♦ ❞❡ ♣r✐♠❡✐r❛ ♦r❞❡♠ ❞❛s ❡q✉❛çõ❡s ❞❡ ❡q✉✐❧í❜r✐♦ ❡♠ t♦r♥♦ ❞❡ ✉♠ ❡st❛❞♦ ❡st❛❝✐♦♥ár✐♦ ♥ã♦ ❡st♦❝ást✐❝♦ ❝❛r❛❝t❡r✐③❛❞♦ ♣♦r ✐♥✢❛çã♦ ③❡r♦ ❡ ❝♦♠ér❝✐♦ ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡❛❞♦✳ ❖ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t♦ ❞❡ ❡q✉❛çõ❡s ❧♦❣✲❧✐♥❡❛r✐③❛❞❛s ❡stá ❞✐s♣♦♥í✈❡❧ ♥♦ ❆♣ê♥❞✐❝❡✳ ❈♦♠♦ r❡❣r❛ ❣❡r❛❧✱ ❧❡tr❛s ♠✐♥ús❝✉❧❛s ✐♥❞✐❝❛♠ ❞❡s✈✐♦s ❞❛s r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈❛s ✈❛r✐á✈❡✐s ❡♠ r❡❧❛çã♦ ❛♦ ❡st❛❞♦ ❡st❛❝✐♦♥ár✐♦✳ ◆❛ ♠❛✐♦r✐❛ ❞♦s ❝❛s♦s ♦ ❞❡s✈✐♦ é ❧♦❣❛rít✐♠✐❝♦✱ ♠❛s ❡♠ ❛❧❣✉♥s ❝❛s♦s é ❡♠ ♥í✈❡❧✳

◆♦ q✉❡ t❛♥❣❡ à ♣♦❧ít✐❝❛ ♠♦♥❡tár✐❛✱ ♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❡♥✈♦❧✈❡ ✉♠❛ ❡s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛çã♦ ♣❛r❛ ❝❛❞❛ r❡❣✐♠❡✱ ❝♦♥❢♦r♠❡ ❡①♣♦st♦ ♥❛ ❙❡çã♦ ✷✳✺✳ ❊st❛s sã♦ ❛s ú♥✐❝❛s ❡q✉❛çõ❡s q✉❡ ♣♦❞❡♠ ❞✐❢❡r✐r ❡♥tr❡ ♦s ❞♦✐s r❡❣✐♠❡s✳ ❆ r❡❣r❛ ❞❡ ❥✉r♦s ♣❛r❛ ♦ r❡❣✐♠❡ ❞❡ ❜❛♥❞❛s ❝❛♠❜✐❛✐s é ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦r

it=ρF Xi,1 it−1+ρi,F X2 it−2+ (1−ρF Xi,1 −ρi,F X2 )(λF Xπ πt+λF Xy yt+λF Xs (st−sc,t)) +εF Xi,t ,

♦♥❞❡ πt ≡ log(Pt/Pt−1) ❡ sc,t ❞❡♥♦t❛ ♦ ❝❡♥tr♦ ❞❛s ❜❛♥❞❛s ❝❛♠❜✐❛✐s✳ ■♥❝❧✉í♠♦s ❞❡❢❛s❛❣❡♥s ❞❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡

❥✉r♦s ♣❛r❛ ♣❡r♠✐t✐r q✉❡ s✉❛ tr❛❥❡tór✐❛ s❡❥❛ ✐♥❡r❝✐❛❧✳ P♦r ✜♠✱ εF X_i,t é ✉♠ ❝❤♦q✉❡ ♥❛ r❡❣r❛ ❞❡ ❥✉r♦s✱ q✉❡

♣♦❞❡ s❡r ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❞♦ ❝♦♠♦ ♦ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t❡ ♥ã♦ s✐st❡♠át✐❝♦ ❞❛ ♣♦❧ít✐❝❛ ♠♦♥❡tár✐❛✳ P❛r❛ ♦ r❡❣✐♠❡ ❞❡ ♠❡t❛s ♣❛r❛ ❛ ✐♥✢❛çã♦✱ ❞❡✜♥✐♠♦s ❛ r❡❣r❛✿✶✹

it=ρITi,1it−1+ρi,IT2it−2+ (1−ρITi,1 −ρi,IT2)[λITπ (πt−πm,t) +λyITyt+λITs ∆st] +εITi,t,

♦♥❞❡ ∆é ♦ ♦♣❡r❛❞♦r ❞❡ ♣r✐♠❡✐r❛ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥ç❛ ❡πm,t é ❛ ♠❡t❛ ♣❛r❛ ❛ ✐♥✢❛çã♦ ❞♦ ♣❡rí♦❞♦✳

✷✳✾ ❊str✉t✉r❛ ❞♦s ❝❤♦q✉❡s

❍á ♦✐t♦ ❝❤♦q✉❡s ❡str✉t✉r❛✐s ♥♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦✱✶✺ _{s❡♥❞♦ ❝✐♥❝♦ ♥❛ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ ❞♦♠ést✐❝❛ ❡ três r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞♦s ❛♦ s❡t♦r} ❡①t❡r♥♦✳ ❖s ❝❤♦q✉❡s ❡str✉t✉r❛✐s r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞♦s à ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛ ❞♦♠ést✐❝❛ sã♦ ❝❤♦q✉❡s ❞❡ ♣♦❧ít✐❝❛ ♠♦♥❡tár✐❛ ✭i✮✱ ♣r❡❢❡rê♥❝✐❛s ✭γ✮✱ t❡❝♥♦❧♦❣✐❛ ✭a✮✱ ♣rê♠✐♦ ❞❡ r✐s❝♦ ✭φ✮ ❡ ❝✉st♦s ❞❡ ♣r♦❞✉t♦s ✐♠♣♦rt❛❞♦s ✭cp✮✳✶✻ P❛r❛

♦s q✉❛tr♦ ú❧t✐♠♦s ❝❤♦q✉❡s✱ s✉♣♦♠♦s ✉♠ ♣r♦❝❡ss♦ ❛✉t♦r❡❣r❡ss✐✈♦ ❞❡ ♣r✐♠❡✐r❛ ♦r❞❡♠ ✭❆❘✭✶✮✮✳ ❖ ❝❤♦q✉❡ ❞❡ ♣♦❧ít✐❝❛ ♠♦♥❡tár✐❛ ❞♦♠ést✐❝❛ ❡ ♦s ❝❤♦q✉❡s ❡①t❡r♥♦s sã♦ s✉♣♦st♦s ✐✳✐✳❞✳✿

at=ρaat−1+σaǫa,t,

γt=ργγt−1+σγǫγ,t,

εcp,t=ρcpεcp,t−1+σcpǫcp,t,

✶✹_{❊st❛ r❡❣r❛ é s✐♠✐❧❛r às ❡♥❝♦♥tr❛❞❛s ♥♦s tr❛❜❛❧❤♦s ❞❡ ❈úr❞✐❛ ❡ ❋✐♥♦❝❝❤✐❛r♦ ✭✷✵✶✸✮ ♣❛r❛ ♦ ❝❛s♦ ❞❛ ❙✉é❝✐❛✱ ❞❡ ❉❡❧ ◆❡❣r♦}

❡ ❙❝❤♦r❢❤❡✐❞❡ ✭✷✵✵✾✮ ♣❛r❛ ♦ ❈❤✐❧❡✱ ❡ ❞❡ ❏✉st✐♥✐❛♥♦ ❡ Pr❡st♦♥ ✭✷✵✶✵✮ ♣❛r❛ ❆✉strá❧✐❛✱ ❈❛♥❛❞á ❡ ◆♦✈❛ ❩❡❧â♥❞✐❛✳

✶✺_{■st♦ ♥ã♦ ✐♥❧❝✉✐ ♦s ❝❤♦q✉❡s r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞♦s ❛♦s ♣r♦❝❡ss♦s ❡st♦❝ást✐❝♦s ❞❛ ♠❡t❛ ♣❛r❛ ❛ ✐♥✢❛çã♦ ❡ ❞❛ ✈❛r✐❛çã♦ ❞♦ ❝❡♥tr♦ ❞❛}

❜❛♥❞❛ ❝❛♠❜✐❛❧✱ q✉❡ s♦♠❡♥t❡ s❡rã♦ ✉t✐❧✐③❛❞♦s ♥♦s ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦s ❝♦♥tr❛❢❛❝t✉❛✐s✳ P❛r❛ ❞❡t❛❧❤❡s✱ ✈❡r s❡çõ❡s ✸✳✶ ❡ ✺✳

✶✻_{❙❡❣✉✐♥❞♦ ❏✉st✐♥✐❛♥♦ ❡ Pr❡st♦♥ ✭✷✵✶✵✮✱ ❛❞✐❝✐♦♥❛♠♦s ✉♠ ❝❤♦q✉❡ ❞❡ ❝✉st♦s à ❝✉r✈❛ ❞❡ P❤✐❧❧✐♣s ♣❛r❛ ❛ ✐♥✢❛çã♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❞✉t♦s}

✐♠♣♦rt❛❞♦s✳