APIMEC Vale
Um Novo Ciclo para a Vale:
Colhendo Frutos de uma Gestão Austera
Fevereiro 2017
Marcos Assumpção, CFA +55-11-3073-3021
marcos.assumpcao@itaubba.com
Daniel Sasson, CFA +52-55-4163-6881
daniel.sasson@itaubba.com
Carlos Eduardo Schmidt, CNPI +55-11-3073-3052
carlos.eduardo@itaubba.com
Bull Market – Efeitos e Consequências
Minerais Ferrosos – Custos e Despesas por Tonelada (em USD/ton) Disciplina na alocação de capital a partir de 2011
SG&A Expenses (em USD Milhões)
523 733
1,085 981
878 1,674
1,478
815 734
477 297
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 941
1,245 1,748
1,130 1,701
2,334
2,240 2,167 1,933
673 636
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 73
46
65 63 66 65
61
38
28
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 4Q16E
-55%
Bull Market – Efeitos e Consequências
Um novo conceito de M&A – Antes
Bull Market – Efeitos e Consequências
Um novo conceito de M&A – Depois
Bull Market – Efeitos e Consequências
Investindo apenas em projetos de classe mundial
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Samitri
Samarco
GIIC
2012
Ferteco
Caemi
Salobo
CST
FCA
2013
Canico
Caemi
Inco
AMCI HA
EBM/MBR
Belvedere
Apolo
Rio Colorado
Regina
Teal
Argos
Corumba
Belvedere
Simandou
Fósfertil
Norte Sul
Biopalma
Norte Energia
Carborough Downs
EBM
Belvedere
Capim Branco I e II
2014 2015 2016
CSN
Bahia Sul
Cenibra
Docenave Ships
Florestas Rio Doce
Fósfertil
CST
Quebec Cartier Mining Co.
GIIC
Gerdau
Usiminas
Siderar
Log-In Logística
Lion Ore
Jubilee
Usiminas
PTI
Oman
Bayovar
PPSA
VLI
Alunorte, Albras, CAP e Paragominas
Carvão Colômbia
Manganese Ferroaloys
Araucária
Salobo e Sudbury
VLI
Norsk Hydro
Log-in Logística
Fosbrasil
Vale Florestar
Goldstream
Belo Monte
8 VLOCs
MBR
3 VLOCs
Goldstream
Capesize
Aquisições, Desinvestimentos e Capex (em USD Bilhões)
Bull Market – Efeitos e Consequências
Investindo apenas em projetos de classe mundial
-1.4 -1.4
-4.6
-23.7
-7.5
-9.1 -9.6
-17.1 -18.6
-15.1
-9.3
-11.8
-5.4
-4.6 -30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Aquisições Desinvestimentos Capex (ex-aquisições)
Distribuição Histórica de Dividendos (em BRL Milhões)
Bull Market – Efeitos e Consequências
Nova visão sobre retorno ao acionista
0.2
1.1
0.6 0.7 0.8
1.3 1.3
1.9
2.9 2.8 3.0
12.0
6.0
4.5
4.2
1.5
0.3
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Lançamentos na China (% YoY, 12-month MA)
Novo Ambiente Competitivo
Melhora marginal da demanda em 2016
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Australia Brazil Others -5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16
Public FAI - Infrastructure FAI - Real Estate -20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16
Novo Ambiente Competitivo
Novo Ambiente Competitivo
Surpresa positiva no preço de commodities
Minério de Ferro (em USD/ton, FOB China) Carvão (em USD/ton, FOB Austrália)
Cobre (em USD/ton) Níquel (em USD/ton)
30 40 50 60 70 80 90
jan/2016 abr/2016 jul/2016 out/2016 jan/2017
30 80 130 180 230 280 330
jan/2016 abr/2016 jul/2016 out/2016 jan/2017
6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000
jan/2016 abr/2016 jul/2016 out/2016 jan/2017
3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500
jan/2016 abr/2016 jul/2016 out/2016 jan/2017
Colhendo os Frutos de Uma Gestão Austera
Busca por eficiência em todos os negócios
EBITDA dos Business Ex-Minério de Ferro (em USD Bilhões)
Custo Caixa Unitário em VNC (em USD/ton)
7.5
5.1
0.8
2.1 2.1
0.5
1.1
2.0
1.2 1.2
1.8
2.5 2.8 3.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
276 300 320
216 208
302 285
353 353
397 422
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
20,530 20,471
23,426
17,380
12,711 12,208 12,425
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
-46%
EBITDA de Minerais Ferrosos por Tonelada e Preço do Minério (em USD/ton)
Colhendo os Frutos de Uma Gestão Austera
Resultados melhores e mais resilientes
47
34
81
106
64 70
36
18
42 120
80
147
169
130 135
97
56
70
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 4Q16E
EBITDA Minerais Ferrosos/ton (em USD/ton) Preço Minério de Ferro (em USD/ton)
26.0
3Q16 FCF 4Q16 Venda Fertilizantes Venda Moatize FCF 2017 YE17
Evolução da Dívida Líquida (em USD Bilhões)
Colhendo os Frutos de Uma Gestão Austera
Redução do riscos de alavancagem e liquidez
YE17 15-17
FCF 2017 -4.0
Venda Moatize -3.0
Venda Fertlizantes -1.25
FCF 4Q16
-2.5
Yield to Maturity (em %)
Colhendo os Frutos de Uma Gestão Austera
Redução do custo de dívida
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
nov/2015 fev/2016 mai/2016 ago/2016 nov/2016 fev/2017
4.375 / 2022 6.875 / 2042
Colhendo os Frutos de Uma Gestão Austera
Potencial aumento nos dividendos / nova política atrelada à geração de caixa
Bear Base
(Itaú Model) Bull Super Bull
Iron Ore Price USD/ton 45 55 65 75
Coking Coal Price USD/ton 100 150 200 250
Nickel Price USD/ton 9,600 10,000 10,400 10,800
Copper Price USD/ton 4,450 4,700 4,950 5,200
2017 EBITDA USD million 6,480 11,100 15,720 20,350
(-) Capex USD million -4,597 -4,597 -4,597 -4,597
(-) Financial Expenses USD million -1,663 -1,663 -1,663 -1,663
(-) Taxes USD million -225 -1,150 -2,073 -2,999
(=) FCF USD million -5 3,690 7,387 11,091
Current Market Cap USD million 54,048 54,048 54,048 54,048
FCF Yield % 0% 7% 14% 21%
2017 Net Debt (including REFIS) USD million 27,037 23,342 19,645 15,941
Net debt/EBITDA x 4.2 2.1 1.2 0.8
EV/EBITDA x 12.5 7.0 4.7 3.4
Potenciais Catalisadores
Continuamos vendo espaço para notícias positivas
Manutenção do Preço de Minério Elevado Conclusão do Deal de Carvão/Logística
Renovação do Acordo de Acionistas Retomada das Operações da Samarco
30 40 50 60 70 80 90
jan/2016 abr/2016 jul/2016 out/2016 jan/2017
Valepar V: 21.2%
T: 17.4%
V: 49.0%
T: 58.1%
V: 11.5%
T: 9.5%
V: 18.3%
T: 15.0%
V: 53.9%
T: 33.7%
Relevant Information – Analysts
Analysts Disclosure Items
1 2 3 4 5
Marcos Assumpção
Daniel Sasson
Carlos Eduardo Schmidt
Disclaimer
Relevant Information
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