Monitoring and Modelling Deforestation in Amazonia

Monitoring and Modelling

Deforestation in Amazonia

Gilberto Câmara, INPE, Brazil Schermerhorn Lecture

Opening Academic Year, ITC, 2008

Source: Carlos Nobre (INPE)

Can we avoid that this….

Fire...

Source: Carlos Nobre (INPE)

….becomes this?

Global Change

How much land change is happening?

Where are land changes taking place?

Who is causing the change?

What are the impacts of public policies?

What will happen in the future?

Agricultural Trade in Brazil

photo source: Edson Sano (EMBRAPA)

Cattle in Amazonia and Brazil

1992 2007

Amazoni a 30 million 75 million

Brasil 154 million 207 million

photo source: Edson Sano (EMBRAPA)

Processes of deforestation

Slash and burn Progressive degradation

Slash and burn

Burn: end of dry season Slash: start of dry season

Progressive degradation

Wood extraction and burning Selective logging

Further burning and pasture

Barlow and Peters (2008)

Clear cut

T2 – Loss of smaller trees

Progressive degradation

T1 – Selective logging

T3 – Loss >50% of forest T4 – Loss >90% of forest

Severely degraded

forest Pasture

Satellites for Forestry

1 10 100

1 10 Resolution (m) 100 1000

Revisit (days)

WFI CB2 CCD CBERS-2

AWFI CB3 PAN CBERS-3

Technology 2008 Technology 2015 Technology 2000 50

50 5

CBERS-6 CBERS-5

Mapping Deforestation

Detection Deforestation Identification

Forest types

5

Amaz-1

A1-CB3 LANDSAT TM

MODIS

Deforestation as an event

Forest Clear cut

Clear cut – end of deforestation (objective and definitive)

~230 scenes Landsat/year

PRODES: Yearly detailed estimates of clear-cut areas (220 LANDSAT, 500 CBERS, 50 DMC images)

Clear-cut deforestation monitoring

~230 scenes Landsat/year

Taxa anual de desmatamento

PRODES: Yearly detailed estimates of clear-cut areas

Clear-cut deforestation monitoring

Is deforestation an event or a process?

What happens between the pristine forest and the clear cut?

?

Forest Clear cut

DETER: 15-day alerts of newly deforested large areas

Monitoring Deforestation in

Amazonia

Exploração intensiva

Floresta Perda >90% do dossel

Corte raso

Perda >50% do dossel

time

DETER – alert 1

How far is detection time from real-world time?

DETER – alert 2

DETER – final alert Intensive

exploitation

Floresta

Loss >90%

Clear cut Loss >50%

Altamira (Pará) – LANDSAT Image – 22 August 2003

Altamira (Pará) – MODIS Image – 07 May 2004

Imagem Modis de 2004-05-21, com excesso de nuvens

Altamira (Pará) – MODIS Image – 21 May 2004

Altamira (Pará) – MODIS Image – 07 June 2004

6.000 hectares deforested in one month!

Altamira (Pará) – MODIS Image – 22 June 2004

Altamira (Pará) – LANDSAT Image – 07 July 2004

Alerta DETER nov-2007

Landsat/TM August 2007

MODIS November

2007

How hard is to use MODIS images

to detect deforestation?

Clear-cut for pasture

Checking DETER´s data (February

2008)

Monthly reports: May 2008

Clear-cut Intensive impact Moderate impact

Low impact Error

166-112 116-113

116-112

TerraAmazon – open source software for large-scale land change monitoring

Spatial database (PostgreSQL with vectors and images)

2004-2008: 5 million polygons, 500 GB images

What’s coming next?

Scenario A

Scenario B

Scenario C

Scenario D Estradas não pavimentadas Rios principais

Estradas pavimentadas em 2010 Áreas protegidas em 1997

Novas áreas protegidas (2004) Ações de comando e controle (locais de cumprimento da lei)

Limites estaduais

Demanda: 25.000 km² Estradas não pavimentadas Rios principais

Estradas pavimentadas em 2010 Áreas protegidas em 1997

Novas áreas protegidas (2004) Ações de comando e controle (locais de cumprimento da lei)

Limites estaduais

Demanda: 15.000 km²

Decreasing demand(15.000 km²) New protected areas, new roads

Command and control actions

Estradas não pavimentadas Rios principais

Estradas pavimentadas (2010)

Limites estaduais

0.0 – 0.1 0.1 – 0.2 0.2 – 0.3 0.3 – 0.4 0.4 – 0.5 0.5 – 0.6 0.6 – 0.7 0.7 – 0.8 0.8 – 0.9 0.9 – 1.0

% change 1997 a 2020:

Scenario A

Scenario B

Scenario C

Scenario D

Projected scenario for Amazonia 2020

INPE´s results have worldwide

impact

Society is watching!

International credibility helps…

TerraAmazon

“Today, Brazil’s monitoring

system is the envy of the world.

INPE has its own remote

sensing satellite, a joint effort with China, that allows it to publish yearly totals of

deforested land that scientists regard as reliable.”

Until 2015, Norway will give up to US$ 1 billion to reduce deforestation in the Amazon. Norway’s contribution will depend on how successful Brazil will be in reducing deforestation. Brazil has the largest rain forest and one of the world’s most advanced systems for surveillance of

deforestation.

...especially when real money is

involved!