MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK

(1)

MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK

DETERMINED BY CHANGES IN THE GLOBAL OUTLOOK AND ITS IMPACTS

ON EXCHANGE-RATE

AND BY THE SLOWER DOMESTIC GROWTH

Economic Research Department - DEPEC

(2)

BRAZILIAN GDP – ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE 1984 - 2014

CRESCIMENTO DO PIB 1984 - 2012

SOURCE: IBGE

FORECAST: BRADESCO 2

5.4

7.8 7.5

3.5

-0.1 3.2

-4.3 1.0

-0.5 4.7

5.3 4.4

2.1 3.4

0.0 0.3 4.3

1.3 2.7

1.1 5.7

3.2 4.0

6.1 5.2

-0.3 7.5

2.7

1.0

2.3 2.1

-5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

Média dos 20 anos anteriores: 2,7%

Média dos 11 anos:

3,6%

CRESCIMENTO ANUAL DO PIB BRASILEIRO - % - 1984 - 2014 Fonte: IBGE e IPEA

Elaboração e Projeção: Bradesco

20 YEARS AVERAGE: 2.7%

10 YEARS AVERAGE:

3.6%

(3)

3

3 THE KEY CHALLENGES OF BRAZILIAN ECONOMY:

DEMOGRAPHY, LABOR MARKET AND EXTERNAL

ENVIRONMENT

PARA

COMBATER A INFLAÇÃO

BASAL, O BRASIL

PRECISARIA DE UMA ESPÉCIE

DE PLANO REAL

II

(4)

LOW UNEMPLOYMENT IN

BRAZIL IS FUNDAMENTALLY EXPLAINED BY

DEMOGRAPHIC ISSUES

LABOR SUPPLY GROWTHS TOO SLOWLY

4

(5)

BRAZILIAN POPULATION: TOTAL, WORKING AGE, LABOR FORCE (SUPPLY), EMPLOYED POPULATION (DEMAND) AND

UNEMPLOYED IN MILLION PEOPLE

5 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO

196,5

134,7

99,9 93,8

6,1

2

52 102 152 202 252

Milhões

2012

População

total PIA PEA Ocupados

Desocupados

(6)

BRAZILIAN LABOR MARKET: SUPPLY AND DEMAND (12-MONTHS CHANGE)

0,68%

2,60%

1,61%

1,34%

1,89%

1,26%

1,77%

1,43%

0,12%

2,24%

1,67%

1,88%

2,75%

3,33%

2,26%

0,73%

2,77%

3,49%

2,34%

1,87%

2,15%

1,75%

0,32%

0,0%

1,0%

2,0%

3,0%

4,0%

fev/06 mai/06 ago/06 nov/06 fev/07 mai/07 ago/07 nov/07 fev/08 mai/08 ago/08 nov/08 fev/09 mai/09 ago/09 nov/09 fev/10 mai/10 ago/10 nov/10 fev/11 mai/11 ago/11 nov/11 fev/12 mai/12 ago/12 nov/12 fev/13 mai/13 ago/13 nov/13 fev/14

Supply Demand

(7)

BRAZILIAN POPULATION AGED BETWEEN 18 AND 24 (IN MILLION)

SOURCE: PNAD/IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO 7

23.5

24.0

24.5

24.8 25.0 25.0

25.0

24.8

24.6

24.4

24.2 24.1 24.0 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.9

22.5 23.0 23.5 24.0 24.5 25.0 25.5

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

M il h õ e s

18 a 24

(8)

POPULATION RATE OF GROWTH – WORLD AND BRAZIL

8 SOURCE: WORLD BANK, BRADESCO

1.41%

0.98%

0.87%

0.75%

0.63%

1.26%

1.17%

1.12%

1.02%

0.96%

0.04%

0.24%

0.44%

0.64%

0.84%

1.04%

1.24%

1.44%

1.64%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Brasil

Mundo

WORLD BRAZIL

(9)

BRAZILIAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE – SIX MAJOR

METROPOLITAN AREAS ANNUAL AVERAGE (2005 – 2015)

9

9.9 10.0

9.3

7.9 8.1

6.7

6.0

5.5 5.4

5.7

6.0

5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

TAXA DE DESEMPREGO

Fonte: IBGE

SOURCE: IBGE

FORECAST: BRADESCO

(10)

BRAZILIAN NET CREATION OF FORMAL JOB – ‘000 INDIVIDUAL JOBS

10

-271 -36

-582 -196

658 591 762

645

1,523

1,254 1,229 1,617

1,452

995

2,137

1,566

868

731 835

-1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

GERAÇÃO LÍQUIDA DE EMPREGO FORMAL

**1996 - 2013. Fonte: Caged. Elaboração e projeções (*): Bradesco**

Em postos de trabalho

SOURCE: CAGED FORECAST: BRADESCO

(11)

-1.3%

1.5%

4.0%

3.2% 3.4%

3.2%

3.8%

2.7%

4.1%

1.8% 2.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

RENDIMENTO MÉDIO REAL - CRESCIMENTO ANUAL

Fonte: IBGE

Elaboração: Bradesco

BRAZILIAN REAL WAGES – ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE

11 SOURCE: IBGE

(12)

12

BRAZILIAN NOMINAL WAGES ADJUSTMENTS – BRADESCO SURVEY – ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE

SOURCE: MBA / BRADESCO

7,4 7,6

7,2

6,2 8,0

7,1

6,1 6,6

7,1 8,9

7,4 9,1

8,5

7,2 8,1

8,4

6,8 8,3

7,8 9,3

8,1 9,3

9,7 9,7 9,2

8,7 8,5

8,2 8,1 8,1 8,6

8,3 8,1 8,1 8,1 8,2

7,7 7,6

4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0

jan/10 fev/10 mar/10 abr/10 mai/10 jun/10 jul/10 ago/10 set/10 out/10 nov/10 dez/10 jan/11 fev/11 mar/11 abr/11 mai/11 jun/11 jul/11 ago/11 set/11 out/11 nov/11 dez/11 jan/12 fev/12 mar/12 abr/12 mai/12 jun/12 jul/12 ago/12 set/12 out/12 nov/12 dez/12 jan/13 fev/13 mar/13 abr/13 mai/13 jun/13 jul/13 ago/13 set/13 out/13 nov/13 dez/13 jan/14 fev/14 mar/14

REAJUSTES SALARIAIS NOMINAIS – PESQUISA PROPRIETÁRIA – TODOS OS SETORES AGREGADOS

Pesquisa Proprietária

(13)

13

INDUSTRY THAT WAS NOT

ALREADY COMPETITIVE WAS NOT PREPARED FOR

INCREASED COSTS OF WAGES.

BESIDES THIS, GLOBAL

DEMAND ACCOMODATED IN A

SLOWER PACE OF GROWTH

(14)

PERCENT CHANGES IN HOURLY COMPENSATION COSTS IN MANUFACTURING, US$, 2006-2012

SOURCE: BLS, BRADESCO 14

0.0%

8.3%

16.3% 17.4% 19.3% 21.1% 22.8% 25.5% 28.1%

33.5%36.3%

42.1%

47.1%

57.3%

63.4%

87.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

United Kingdom Mexico Netherlands Germany Greece United States Taiwan France Korea, Republic of Italy Finland Portugal Belgium Spain Austria Ireland Denmark Canada Hungary Poland Sweden Switzerland Norway Israel Czech Republic Japan Philippines New Zealand Estonia Australia Slovakia Singapore Brazil

crescimento acumulado

(15)

2006 = 100

BRAZILIAN MANUFACTURING EXPORTS – QUANTUM, INDEX NUMBER – 12 MONTHS MOVING AVERAGE

SOURCE: FUNCEX, BRADESCO

99,8

102,1 103,6

100,8 98,1

84,7

75,7

80,6

83,2 84,7 84,2

82,8 82,2

84,2 87,3 87,3

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110

jun/06 ago/06 out/06 dez/06 fev/07 abr/07 jun/07 ago/07 out/07 dez/07 fev/08 abr/08 jun/08 ago/08 out/08 dez/08 fev/09 abr/09 jun/09 ago/09 out/09 dez/09 fev/10 abr/10 jun/10 ago/10 out/10 dez/10 fev/11 abr/11 jun/11 ago/11 out/11 dez/11 fev/12 abr/12 jun/12 ago/12 out/12 dez/12 fev/13 abr/13 jun/13 ago/13 out/13 dez/13 fev/14

15

(16)

BRAZILIAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE)

2.7%

0.1%

8.3%

3.1% 2.8%

6.0%

3.1%

-7.4%

10.5%

0.4%

-2.6%

1.2%

2.5%

-9.0%

-5.0%

-1.0%

3.0%

7.0%

11.0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

PRODUÇÃO INDUSTRIAL - CRESCIMENTO ANUAL

Fonte: IBGE

SOURCE: IBGE

(17)

17

AS A RESULT, HIGH WAGES WILL KEEP CONSUMPTION

INCREASING.

BESIDES THIS, IMPROVEMENT IN SOCIAL MOBILILITY

ACCUMULATED OVER THE LAST YEARS SUSTAIN FAMILY

DEMAND FOR GOODS AND

SERVICE.

(18)

BRAZILIAN RETAIL SALES – INCLUIDING AUTO AND BUILDING MATERIALS (ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE)

SOURCE: IBGE

10.8%

3.5%

6.5%

13.4%

9.8%

7.0%

12.0%

6.9%

7.8%

3.9%

3.2%

0.0%

3.0%

6.0%

9.0%

12.0%

15.0%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

PROJEÇÕES PMC AMPLIADA

(19)

BRAZILIAN SOCIAL MOBILITY: NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN CLASSES A,B AND C - 12-MONTHS MOVING AVERAGE

SOURCE: PME, PNAD/IBGE, BRADESCO

80.617

88.178

97.109

99.760

106.200

111.907

117.873 118.031

120.374 124.475

73.0 83.0 93.0 103.0 113.0 123.0 133.0

nov/04 jan/05 mar/05 mai/05 jul/05 set/05 nov/05 jan/06 mar/06 mai/06 jul/06 set/06 nov/06 jan/07 mar/07 mai/07 jul/07 set/07 nov/07 jan/08 mar/08 mai/08 jul/08 set/08 nov/08 jan/09 mar/09 mai/09 jul/09 set/09 nov/09 jan/10 mar/10 mai/10 jul/10 set/10 nov/10 jan/11 mar/11 mai/11 jul/11 set/11 nov/11 jan/12 mar/12 mai/12 jul/12 set/12 nov/12 jan/13 mar/13 mai/13 jul/13 set/13 nov/13

Milhões

Classes ABC

Fonte: IBGE

Elaboração: Bradesco

Em milhões

19

(20)

37.9%

20.0%

33.3%

3.8% 5.0%

18.4% 17.9%

53.2%

5.7% _4.8%

11.9%

16.3%

58.9%

7.9%

5.1%

00%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Classe E Classe D Classe C Classe B Classe A

2000 2010 2020*

BRAZILIAN SOCIAL CLASSES, IN MILLION PEOPLE

SOURCE: IBGE; BRADESCO

CLASSE A: R$ 7.006 OU MAIS CLASSE B: DE R$ 4.635 A R$ 7.006 CLASSE C: DE R$ 1.159 A R$ 4.635 CLASSE D: DE R$ 701 A R$ 1.159 CLASSE E: ATÉ R$ 701

20

(21)

BRAZILIAN GRAIN PRODUCTION 1991 - 2014

G:\Area Economica\BBV\Regina\ palestra agribusiness - arroz preços internos.xls

EM MIL TON

* Projeção

SOURCE AND FORECAST: CONAB, USDA, BRADESCO 21

57.901 68.400

76.035 81.065

78.427

83.030 100.267

96.761 123.168

113.898

131.751

144.137 149.255 162.803

187.438 188.701

30.000 50.000 70.000 90.000 110.000 130.000 150.000 170.000 190.000 210.000

90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14*

em mil toneladas Fonte e projeção: Conab Elaboração: Bradesco

Produção Nacional de Grãos (Arroz, Feijão, Milho, Trigo, Soja, Algodão)

(22)

INFLATION

BEHAVIOUR WILL DEPEND ON:

FOOD, SERVICES

AND PASS THROUGH

22

(23)

BRAZILIAN NOMINAL INCOME AND SERVICE INFLATION

CONSUMER PRICES INDEX - HIKE ACCUMULATED SINCE JAN/2004 2004 - 2014

3,1%

14,8%

26,2%

49,7%

76,8%

96,3%

125,3%

1,4%

19,8%

36,3%

56,1%

69,5%

94,4%

0,0%

20,0%

40,0%

60,0%

80,0%

100,0%

120,0%

fev/04 mai/04 ago/04 nov/04 fev/05 mai/05 ago/05 nov/05 fev/06 mai/06 ago/06 nov/06 fev/07 mai/07 ago/07 nov/07 fev/08 mai/08 ago/08 nov/08 fev/09 mai/09 ago/09 nov/09 fev/10 mai/10 ago/10 nov/10 fev/11 mai/11 ago/11 nov/11 fev/12 mai/12 ago/12 nov/12 fev/13 mai/13 ago/13 nov/13 fev/14

Nominal income

Services inflation

(24)

BRAZILIAN NOMINAL INCOME AND DURABLE GOODS INFLATION CONSUMER PRICES INDEX - HIKE ACCUMULATED SINCE JAN/2004 2004 - 2014

3,1%

7,2%

23,3%

25,7%

34,8%

49,7% 60,9%

72,1%

74,9%

85,0%

96,3%

95,0%

128,9%

9,3% 11,1% 8,4% 8,4%

5,3% 7,1% 1,3% 6,4%

-5,0%

15,0%

35,0%

55,0%

75,0%

95,0%

115,0%

fev/04 mai/04 ago/04 nov/04 fev/05 mai/05 ago/05 nov/05 fev/06 mai/06 ago/06 nov/06 fev/07 mai/07 ago/07 nov/07 fev/08 mai/08 ago/08 nov/08 fev/09 mai/09 ago/09 nov/09 fev/10 mai/10 ago/10 nov/10 fev/11 mai/11 ago/11 nov/11 fev/12 mai/12 ago/12 nov/12 fev/13 mai/13 ago/13 nov/13 fev/14

nominal income

durable goods

(25)

BRAZILIAN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – FOOD COMPONENT (12-MONTHS PERCENT CHANGE)

9,84%

13,28%

18,45%

13,37%

0,88%

6,67%

2,29%

10,68%

6,22%

9,81%

4,48%

10,80%

15,71%

8,05%

4,51%

0,0%

4,0%

8,0%

12,0%

16,0%

20,0%

out/07 dez/07 fev/08 abr/08 jun/08 ago/08 out/08 dez/08 fev/09 abr/09 jun/09 ago/09 out/09 dez/09 fev/10 abr/10 jun/10 ago/10 out/10 dez/10 fev/11 abr/11 jun/11 ago/11 out/11 dez/11 fev/12 abr/12 jun/12 ago/12 out/12 dez/12 fev/13 abr/13 jun/13 ago/13 out/13 dez/13 fev/14

12M

(26)

BRAZILIAN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX 12-MONTHS PERCENT CHANGE

26 SOURCE: IBGE

6,06%

7,18%

8,07%

6,02%

6,36%

5,70%

4,03%

2,96%

4,18%

6,41%

5,90%

4,17%

5,22%

4,84%

5,99%

6,87%

7,23%

4,92%

5,53%

6,70%

5,91% 6,35%

6,60%

6,31%

2,5%

3,5%

4,5%

5,5%

6,5%

7,5%

8,5%

ju n /0 4 s e t/ 0 4 d e z /0 4 m a r/ 0 5 ju n /0 5 s e t/ 0 5 d e z /0 5 m a r/ 0 6 ju n /0 6 s e t/ 0 6 d e z /0 6 m a r/ 0 7 ju n /0 7 s e t/ 0 7 d e z /0 7 m a r/ 0 8 ju n /0 8 s e t/ 0 8 d e z /0 8 m a r/ 0 9 ju n /0 9 s e t/ 0 9 d e z /0 9 m a r/ 1 0 ju n /1 0 s e t/ 1 0 d e z /1 0 m a r/ 1 1 ju n /1 1 s e t/ 1 1 d e z /1 1 m a r/ 1 2 ju n /1 2 s e t/ 1 2 d e z /1 2 m a r/ 1 3 ju n /1 3 s e t/ 1 3 d e z /1 3 m a r/ 1 4 ju n /1 4 s e t/ 1 4 d e z /1 4

(27)

BRAZILIAN CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION (IPCA) - 2004-2014*

SOURCE: IBGE

7,60%

5,69%

3,14%

4,46%

5,90%

4,31%

5,91%

6,50%

5,84% 5,91%

6,31%

0,0%

1,0%

2,0%

3,0%

4,0%

5,0%

6,0%

7,0%

8,0%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

IPCA VARIAÇÃO ANUAL – 2002-2014. FONTE: IBGE. ELABORAÇÃO E PROJEÇÕES (*): BRADESCO

(28)

28

PRODUCTIVITY MUST INCREASE IN BRAZIL

GAP BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND WILL BE CLOSED

WITH SUPPLY EXPANSION,

LABOR FORCE QUALIFICATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE

GROWTH

(29)

29

1.5 8.7

-0.3

-8.2

5.0

0.4

-5.2 -4.6 9.1

3.6 9.8

13.9 13.6

-6.7

21.3

4.7

-4.0 6.3

4.0

-12.0 -9.0 -6.0 -3.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 12.0 15.0 18.0 21.0 24.0

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (p)

SOURCE: IBGE

INVESTMENTS – FROM BRAZILIAN GDP FIGURES (ANNUAL

RATE OF CHANGE)

(30)

BRAZILIAN AVERAGE SCHOOLING YEARS PEOPLE AGED 25 OR MORE

SOURCE: PNAD/IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

5,9

6,1

6,2

6,4

6,5

6,7

6,8

7,0

7,2 7,3

7,4

7,5

8,6

5,8 6,3 6,8 7,3 7,8 8,3 8,8

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011 2012* 2020*

Média por Ano - 25

30

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31

OUTLOOK FOR INTEREST RATE AND EXCHANGE

RATE

31

(32)

BRAZILIAN NOMINAL INTEREST RATE (SELIC) 2008-2014

SOURCE: BCB

11,75%

13,00%

13,75%

12,75%

11,25%

10,25%

8,75%8,75%

9,50%

10,25%

10,75%

11,25%

12,00%

12,50%

11,00%

10,50%

9,75%

9,00%

8,50%

8,00%

7,25%

8,00%

8,50%

9,00%

9,50%

10,00%

10,50%

10,75%11,00% 11,00%

6,0%

7,0%

8,0%

9,0%

10,0%

11,0%

12,0%

13,0%

14,0%

mar-08 jun-08 set-08 dez-08 mar-09 jun-09 set-09 dez-09 mar-10 jun-10 set-10 dez-10 mar-11 jun-11 set-11 dez-11 mar-12 jun-12 set-12 dez-12 mar-13 jun-13 set-13 dez-13 mar-14 jun-14 set-14 dez-14

Cenário básico para a taxa de juros - Selic

(33)

BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE - R$/US$ 2009 - 2014

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG FORECAST: BRADESCO 33

2,25

2,00

1,70

1,86

1,73 1,88

1,65 1,74

1,64

1,54 1,91

1,72 1,69 1,88 2,03

2,08

1,99

2,12 2,04

1,95 2,14

2,25 2,46

2,15 2,33

2,44 2,36

2,26

1,45 1,65 1,85 2,05 2,25 2,45

01/04/09 01/05/09 01/06/09 01/07/09 01/08/09 01/09/09 01/10/09 01/11/09 01/12/09 01/01/10 01/02/10 01/03/10 01/04/10 01/05/10 01/06/10 01/07/10 01/08/10 01/09/10 01/10/10 01/11/10 01/12/10 01/01/11 01/02/11 01/03/11 01/04/11 01/05/11 01/06/11 01/07/11 01/08/11 01/09/11 01/10/11 01/11/11 01/12/11 01/01/12 01/02/12 01/03/12 01/04/12 01/05/12 01/06/12 01/07/12 01/08/12 01/09/12 01/10/12 01/11/12 01/12/12 01/01/13 01/02/13 01/03/13 01/04/13 01/05/13 01/06/13 01/07/13 01/08/13 01/09/13 01/10/13 01/11/13 01/12/13 01/01/14 01/02/14 01/03/14 01/04/14

DECEMBER 2009 R$ 1.74 / US$

DECEMBER 2008 R$ 2.34 / US$

DECEMBER 2010 R$ 1.67 / US$

DECEMBER 2011 R$ 1.88 / US$

DECEMBER 2012 R$ 2.04 / US$

DECEMBER 2013 R$ 2.34 / US$

DECEMBER 2014 R$ 2.40 / US$

(34)

1.96

2.32

3.53

2.89

2.65

2.34

2.14

1.77

2.34 1.74 1.67

1.88

2.04 2.35 2.40

0.80 1.40 2.00 2.60 3.20 3.80

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4

Taxa de Câm bio (final de ano) - 2003 - 2012- R$/US$ - Fonte: BCB Projeções Bradesco

R$/US$

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG FORECAST: BRADESCO 34

BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE - R$/US$ 2000 - 2014

(35)

35

US TREASURIES – 10 YEARS 2010- 2014

Em %

D:\Area Economica\BBV\BLOOMBERG - T-BOND 10 ANOS E 30 ANOS.xls 3,364

2,792

2,383

3,549

3,170

2,864

2,048 2,219

2,269

1,508 1,668

1,615

1,938

1,663 2,165

2,739

2,484 2,994

2,502 3,028

2,576 2,788

2,797

1,20 1,70 2,20 2,70 3,20 3,70 4,20

24/04/10 24/05/10 23/06/10 23/07/10 22/08/10 21/09/10 21/10/10 20/11/10 20/12/10 19/01/11 18/02/11 20/03/11 19/04/11 19/05/11 18/06/11 18/07/11 17/08/11 16/09/11 16/10/11 15/11/11 15/12/11 14/01/12 13/02/12 14/03/12 13/04/12 13/05/12 12/06/12 12/07/12 11/08/12 10/09/12 10/10/12 09/11/12 09/12/12 08/01/13 07/02/13 09/03/13 08/04/13 08/05/13 07/06/13 07/07/13 06/08/13 05/09/13 05/10/13 04/11/13 04/12/13 03/01/14 02/02/14 04/03/14 03/04/14

TAXA DE JUROS DO TÍTULO DE 10 ANOS DO TESOURO AMERICANO 2006- 2013. Fonte:

Bloomberg

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, BRADESCO

(36)

36

CHINESE GDP – ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE 1997 - 2016

SOURCE: CEIC

FORECAST: BRADESCO 9.3

7.8 7.6

8.4 8.3

9.1

10.1 11.3

12.7 14.2

9.6 9.2

10.4 9.3

7.7 7.7

7.4 7.0

6.5

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

China: crescimento anual do PIB (variação interanual).

Fonte: Bloomberg

Elaboração e projeções: Bradesco

36

(37)

BRAZILIAN CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT (IN USD MILLION)

SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO FORECAST: BRADESCO

-1,811

-18,384 -23,502

-30,452 -33,416

-25,335-24,225-23,215 -7,637

4,177

11,67913,985 13,643 1,551

-28,192 -24,302

-47,273 -52,480

-54,246

-81,374

-74,256

-100,000 -80,000 -60,000 -40,000 -20,000 0 20,000

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

37

(38)

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT – US$ million

SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO 38

28,856 28,578

32,779

22,457

16,590

10,144

18,146

15,066

18,822

34,585

45,058

25,949

48,506

66,660 65,272 64,045

60,000

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014*

(39)

39 DOMESTIC SALES – VEHICLES – 2013

SOURCE: ANFAVEA

PRODUCED BY : BRADESCO -3,1%

-0,9%

4,3%

11,1%

14,3%

-5,0% 0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0%

Cars

Automotive Complex

Light Commercials

Trucks

Buses

(40)

40 SOURCE: ANFAVEA

PRODUCED BY : BRADESCO

DOMESTIC SALES – VEHICLES – 2014

0,0%

0,5%

0,7%

0,0% 0,2% 0,4% 0,6% 0,8% 1,0%

Trucks

Buses

Cars

Automotive Complex

Light Commercials

(41)

1.131 1.395

1.728 1.943 1.534

1.257

1.601 1.479 1.579

1.928 2.463

2.820 3.141

3.515 3.633 3.802 3.767 3.787

300 800 1.300 1.800 2.300 2.800 3.300 3.800 4.300

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2 0 1 4 *

(*) Projeção Fonte: Anfavea Elaboração e Projeção: BradescoVendas Internas do Complexo Automotivo (Automóveis, Comerciais Leves, Caminhões e Ônibus) - 1980 - 2009

em m il unidades

G:\Area Economica\Analises_Projecoes\Setorial\Complexo Automotivo- 02 vendas internas do complexo automotivo - anual.xls

* Projeção

SOURCE: ANFAVEA

PRODUCED BY : BRADESCO

DOMESTIC SALES – AUTOMOTIVE COMPLEX 1993 - 2014

IN THOUSAND UNITS

(42)

G:\Area Economica\Analises_Projecoes\Setorial\Complexo Automotivo- 02 vendas internas do complexo automotivo - anual.xls

* Projeção

9,8% 9,5%

13,1%

27,8%

14,1%

12,6%

10,6%

2,9%

6,1%

-1,5%

0,5%

-5,0%

0,0%

5,0%

10,0%

15,0%

20,0%

25,0%

30,0%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

Fonte: Anfavea Elaboração e Projeção: Bradesco

VARIAÇÃO % DAS VENDAS DE AUTOMÓVEIS E COMERCIAIS LEVES - 2004 - 2013

SOURCE: ANFAVEA

PRODUCED BY : BRADESCO

DOMESTIC SALES VARIATION – CARS AND LIGHT COMMERCIALS 2004 - 2014

(43)

G:\Area Economica\Analises_Projecoes\Setorial\Complexo Automotivo- 02 vendas internas do complexo automotivo - anual.xls

* Projeção

25,2%

-3,2%

-5,1%

29,2%

24,0%

-10,0%

43,5%

9,6%

-19,5%

11,1%

0,0%

-25,0%

-15,0%

-5,0%

5,0%

15,0%

25,0%

35,0%

45,0%

2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 *

Fonte: Anfavea Elaboração e Projeção: Bradesco Variação % das Vendas de Caminhões 2004 - 2011

SOURCE: ANFAVEA

PRODUCED BY : BRADESCO

DOMESTIC SALES VARIATION - TRUCKS 2004 - 2014

(44)

G:\Area Economica\Analises_Projecoes\Setorial\Complexo Automotivo- 02 vendas internas do complexo automotivo - anual.xls

* Projeção

10,7%

-12,9%

28,6%

17,4% 17,7%

-17,1%

25,6%

21,9%

-16,8%

14,3%

0,0%

-20,0%

-10,0%

0,0%

10,0%

20,0%

30,0%

40,0%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

Ônibus

SOURCE: ANFAVEA

PRODUCED BY : BRADESCO

DOMESTIC SALES VARIATION - BUSES 2004 - 2014

(45)

DEPEC-BRADESCO: MACROECONOMIC SCENARIO

Estimation based on information available until 10^th March, 2014

45

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-2020

(average)

GDP% -0.3 7.5 2.7 1.0 2.3 2.1 3,4

CPI (IPCA) % 4.31 5.91 6.50 5.84 5.91 6.30 5,2

WPI (IGP-M) % -1.7 11.3 5.1 7.8 5.5 6.0 5,0

Nominal rates (Selic) 8.75 10.75 11.00 7.25 10.00 11.00 9,42%

Industrial Production % -7.4 10.5 0.4 -2.6 1.2 2.5 3,1%

Unemployment rate % 8.1 6.7 6.0 5.5 5.4 5.7 5,6%

BRL (R/US$) average 2.00 1.76 1.67 1.95 2.16 2.35 2,55

BRL (R/US$) eop 1.74 1.67 1.88 2.04 2.34 2.40 2,65

Exports (US$ Bn) 153.0 201.9 256.0 242.6 242.2 248.9 303,7

Imports (US$ Bn) 127.6 181.8 226.2 223.1 239.6 242.0 276,8

Trade balance (US$ Bn) 25.4 20.1 29.8 19.4 2.6 6.9 26,8

Current account (US$ Bn) -24.3 -47.3 -52.5 -54.2 -81.4 -73.2 -83,6

Current account % of GDP -1.6 -2.2 -2.1 -2.4 -3.6 -3.2 -3,1%

International Reserves (US$ Bn) 239.1 288.6 352.0 378.6 373.5 382.8 434,1

FDI (US$ Bn) 25.9 48.5 66.7 65.3 64.0 60.0 72,7

CRB (Average) 246,0 246,0 246,0 246,0 246,0 246,0 n/a

Crude Oil (Brent US$/b) - Average 61,9 61,9 61,9 61,9 61,9 61,9 n/a

Fiscal balance % of GDP 2.0 2.7 3.1 2.4 1.9 1.5 2,0

Net Public debt % of GDP 42.1 39.1 36.4 35.1 33.8 35.5 37,5

Credit outstanding %YoY 15,1 20,6 18,8 16,4 14,7 13,2 10,5

Non-performing loans

Households 7,7% 5,7% 7,4% 7,9% 6,7% 6,8% 5,8%

Companies 3,8% 3,5% 3,9% 4,0% 3,1% 3,5% 2,9%

(46)

DEPEC - BRADESCO does not accept responsibility for any actions/decisions that may be taken based on the information provided in its publications and projections.

All the data and opinions contained in these information bulletins is carefully checked and drawn up by fully qualified professionals, but it should not be used, under any hypothesis, as the basis, support, guidance or norm for any document, valuations, judgments or decision taking, whether of a formal or informal nature.

Therefore, we emphasize that all the consequences and responsibility for using any data or analysis contained in this publication is assumed exclusively by the user, exempting BRADESCO from all responsibility for any actions resulting from the usage of this material. We all point out that access to this information implies acceptance in full of this term of responsibility and usage. The reproduction of the content in this report (partially or in full) is strictly forbidden except if authorized by BRADESCO or if the sources (the name of the authors, publication and BRADESCO) are strictly mentioned.

Updated 10^th March, 2014