ENE 102 Energia, desenvolvimento e
sustentabilidade
Inovação tecnológica para a indústria
de energia
João M. L. Moreira
Referências
C. Freeman e C. Perez, Structural crises of adjustment, business cycles and
investiment behavior, in G. Dosi et al (eds.) Technical change and economic theory, London, p. 38-66, 1998.
K. Feng, Innovation and strategy for the industrial development in developing
countries, China, 2012.
Importância de se entender a inovação
e o progresso tecnológico
É importante para descrever o crescimento econômico das nações
Na década de 50 economistas identificaram que 80 % do crescimento econômico de longo prazo não era devido a investimentos
Resíduo de Solow (progresso tecnológico); Solow – Prêmio Nobel de Economia
(1987).
Tecnologia é um fator chave para explicar diferenças no crescimento econômico entre países
Investimento em pesquisa e desenvolvimento (P&D)
entre 1980 e 1995 de vários grupos de países
Evolução da inovação
Tendência já no final do século 19
P&D torna-se organizada nas empresas
Instituições para P&D a partir de 1870
Universidades, institutos de pesquisa, laboratórios nas grandes
empresas
Invenção do método de invenção
EUA: 1 a 2 % da população trabalham relacionados com
P&D
Tecnologia se torna mais científica
–
pesquisa básica
Definição de Schumpeter (1934)
Innovation is the introduction of
① new goods and new quality (product innovation)
② new methods of production (processing innovation)
③ the opening of new markets (market innovation)
④ the conquest of new sources of supply (factor innovation)
⑤ and the carrying out of a new organization of any industry,
(organization innovation, institutional innovation)
Inovação é muito mais que invenção nova ou nova
descoberta científica
Envolve produtos, processos, mercado, forma
organizacional e institucional, ambiente econômico, etc)
Produção em função do capital e
trabalho
Fatores de produção: - Trabalho
- Capital (máquinas, prédios, veículos, escritórios, lojas, etc)
Eficiência da produção com condições
de tecnologia fixas
O aumento da produção pode
levar a condições não eficientes de produção
Existe uma condição ótima de
produção de acordo com os recursos existentes
Inovação tecnológica altera as
condições
Pesquisa e inovação tecnológica no
crescimento econômico
Importância da inovação técnica e pesquisa científica para o
crescimento econômico. Progresso tecnológico permite um
crescimento contínuo do PIB dos países (Solow)
A competição por inovação é importante para o crescimento
econômico (Schumpeter)
Inclui a destruição criativa como força motora para o crescimento
Condições favoráveis como ambiente e infraestrutura
favorecem a inovação e compensam retornos decrescentes
do investimento de capital (Keynes)
Inovação incremental
Contínua
Ocorre devido pressão da demanda, concorrência, fatores
culturais, oportunidades tecnológicas
Não há atividade de P&D
–
aprende-se por difusão de
conhecimento e fazendo (learn by doing)
Invenções e melhoramentos provenientes de sugestões de
engenheiros, trabalhadores e usuários
Melhora a eficiência do uso de todos os fatores de produção
Associada ao ganho de escala de plantas e equipamentos e
melhoria da qualidade dos produtos e serviços
Inovações radicais
Descontínua
Resultado de atividade de P&D intencional
Distribuição não uniforme entre os setores econômicos e
tempo
Importante para o crescimento de novos mercados
(atividades econômicas) e investimentos
Inovação em produtos, processos e estrutura organizacional
Mudança estrutural mas inicialmente de impacto localizado
Exemplos: materiais poliméricos, computadores, energia
nuclear, energia eólica
Mudança de paradigma técnico e
econômico (revoluções tecnológicas!)
Surgimento de novos grupos econômicos
Mudança no sistema tecnológico com influência em toda a economia
Combinação de inovação radical e incremental com mudanças organizacionais
Vários grupos com inovações radicais e incrementais e novos
sistemas tecnológicos
Penetração ampla por toda a economia
Extraído de:
C. Freeman e C. Perez, Structural crises of
adjustment, business cycles and investiment
behavior, in G. Dosi et al (eds.) Technical
change and economic theory, London, p.
38-66.
The Waves of Technological Change
Long waves or cycles Key features of dominant infrastructure Approx.
timing
Kondratieff waves Science technology education and training
Transport communication
Energy systems
Universal and cheap key factors
1780s-1840s Industrial revolution:
factory production for textiles
Apprenticeship, learning by doing, scientific societies
Canals, carriage roads
Water power Cotton
1840s-1890s Age of steam power and railways Professional mechanical and civil engineers, institutes of technology, mass primary education
Railways (iron), telegraph
Steam power Coal, iron
1890s-1940s Age of electricity and steel Industrial R&D labs, chemicals and electrical, national
laboratories
Railways (steel), telephone
Electricity Steel
1940s-1990s Age of mass production (Fordism) of automobiles and synthetic materials
Large-scale industrial and government R&D, mass higher education
Motor highways, radio and TV, airlines
Oil
Oil, plastics
1990s- Age of microelectronics and computer networks
Data networks, R&D global networks, lifetime education and training
Information highways, digital networks
16
Early mechanization
1770s &1780s to 1830s &1840s
Upswing: Industrial revolution
Downswing: Hard times
Main carrier branches and sectors: textiles
Key factor industries offering abundant supply at descending price: cotton
Other sectors growing from small base: steam engines,
machinery
Organization of firms: individual entrepreneurs and small firms,
Early Mechanization
Limitations of previous paradigm: scale and process control in domestic system, hand-operated tools and processes
Solutions which new paradigm offers: mechanization and factory organization
Technological leaders: Britain, France, Belgium Newly industrializing countries: German states
National regime of regulation: breakdown of privileges on trade and competition, laissez-faire
International regime of regulation: emergence of British supremacy in trade and international finance
Features of national systems of innovation: learning by doing, local scientific and engineering societies
18
Steam power and railway
1830s &1840s to 1880s & 1890s
Upswing: Victorian prosperity
Downswing: Great depression
Main carrier branches and sectors: steam engines, railway
Key factor industries offering abundant supply at descending price: coal, transport
Other sectors growing from small base: steel, electricity, gas,
heavy engineering
Organization of firms: larger firms employing hundreds, limited
liability and joint stock company, small-firm competition
Steam Power and Railway
Limitations of previous paradigm: water power in terms of inflexibility of location, scale production
Solutions which new paradigm offers: steam engine and new transport system
Technological leaders: Britain, France, Belgium, Germany, USA Newly industrializing countries: Italy, Netherlands
National regime of regulation: Laissez faire
International regime of regulation: ‘Pax Britannica’, international free trade, gold standard
Features of national systems of innovation: growing specialization, development of professional education
20
Electrical and heavy engineering
1880s & 1890s to 1930s & 1940s
Upswing: Belle époque
Downswing: Great depression
Main carrier branches and sectors: electrical engineering
Key factor industries offering abundant supply at descending price: steel
Other sectors growing from small base: automobiles,
aluminum
Organization of firms: emergence of giant firms, monopoly and
oligopoly, concentration of banking and finance capital
Electrical and Heavy Engineering
Limitations of previous paradigm: iron in terms of strength and durability, inflexible belts
Solutions which new paradigm offers: group drive for electrical machinery, power tools, standardization in worldwide operations Technological leaders: Germany, USA, Britain, France
Newly industrializing countries: Italy, Canada, Japan
National regime of regulation: nationalist state, social legislation, growth of state bureaucracy
International regime of regulation: imperialism and colonization, destabilization of international financial and trade system
Features of national systems of innovation: ‘in-house’ R&D, university scientists
Other sector developments: domestic service industry,
22
Fordist mass production
1930s & 1940s to 1980s & 1990s
Upswing: Golden age of growth and Keynesian full employment
Downswing: Crisis of structural adjustment
Main carrier branches and sectors: automobiles
Key factor industries offering abundant supply at descending price: energy (oil)
Other sectors growing from small base: computers, software
Organization of firms: oligopolistic competition, multinational
corporations based on FDI, increasing concentration, ‘techno
-structure’ in large corporations
Fordist Mass Production
Limitations of previous paradigm: batch production
Solutions which new paradigm offers: assembly line production
techniques, new patterns of industrial location, cheapening of mass consumption products
Technological leaders: USA, Germany, Japan
Newly industrializing countries: Korea, Brazil, Mexico
National regime of regulation: welfare state, high levels of state
expenditure and investment, Keynesian techniques
International regime of regulation: ‘Pax Americana’, US military and
economic dominance, decolonization, Cold War, US dominating international trade and financial regime
Features of national systems of innovation: specialized R&D
departments, military R&D, technology transfer through licensing
Other sector developments: decline of domestic service, self-service,
24
Information and communication
technology (ICT)
1990s - …
Upswing:
Downswing:
Main carrier branches and sectors: computers, software
network
Key factor industries offering abundant supply at descending price: chips (microelectronics)
Other sectors growing from small base: third generation
biotechnology products, space activities
Organization of firms: networks of large firms based on
Information and Communication Technology
(ICT)
Limitations of previous paradigm: inflexibility of assembly line, energy and material intensity
Solutions which new paradigm offers: electronic control systems, networking and integration of design, production and marketing
Technological leaders: USA, Japan, Germany
Newly industrializing countries: Brazil, Mexico, China
National regime of regulation: regulation of ICT, regulation of financial institutions and capital markets
International regime of regulation: “multi-polarity”, institutions
Features of national systems of innovation: computer networking and collaborative research, factory as laboratory
Evolução
Fontes de energia
Hidráulica, vapor, eletricidade, petróleo, petróleo e gás natural e petróleo, gás e
renováveis?!
P&D e educação
(1780-1890) fazendo e aprendendo, profissionais de engenharia civil e mecânica
– educação em massa de nível primário
(1890-1940) P&D industrial, labs químico e elétrico
(1940-1990) P&D industrial e governamental de grande escala – educação em
massa de nível universitário
(1990- ) P&D em redes globais, redes de informação, educação continuada e
treinamentos
Regulação
(1840-1920) comercial de origem britânica
(1920- ) comercial, financeira e mercados de capital de origem americana e
europeia
(1990- ) regulação ambiental
Novo paradigma para energia
Substituição das fontes fósseis por meio de:
Regulação
