MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK

(1)

MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK

DETERMINED BY CHANGES IN THE

GLOBAL OUTLOOK AND ITS IMPACTS

ON EXCHANGE-RATE

AND BY THE SLOWER DOMESTIC

GROWTH

(2)

PIB de Longo Prazo - Fonte: IPEADATA

Período

PIB - R$ de 2006(milhões)

- IPEA - Gac_PIB Variação Anual

Variação Anual Oficial

(IBGE - Nova Metodologia) Médias

Fatores de Crescimento PIB Crescimento Mundial PIB Brasil - PIB Mundo 1900 15868.35393 1901 18147.78598 14.36 1.144 14.36 1902 18060.11552 -0.48 0.995 -0.48 -14.85 1903 18410.79737 1.94 1.019 1.94 2.42 1904 18673.80876 1.43 1.014 1.43 -0.51 1905 19287.50201 3.29 1.033 3.29 1.86 1906 21742.27499 12.73 1.127 12.73 9.44 1907 21917.61592 0.81 1.008 0.81 -11.92 1908 21216.25221 -3.20 0.968 -3.20 -4.01 1909 23408.0138 10.33 1.103 10.33 13.53 1910 24021.70705 2.62 1.026 2.62 -7.71 1911 25424.43447 5.84 1.058 5.84 3.22 1912 27177.84374 6.90 1.069 6.90 1.06 1913 27966.87791 2.90 1.029 2.90 -3.99 1914 27616.19606 -1.25 0.987 -1.25 -4.16 1915 27703.86652 0.32 1.003 0.32 1.57 1916 27966.87791 0.95 1.009 0.95 0.63 1917 30596.99183 9.40 1.094 9.40 8.46 1918 29983.29858 -2.01 0.980 -2.01 -11.41 1919 32350.4011 7.89 1.079 7.89 9.90 1920 36383.24243 12.47 1.125 12.47 4.57 1921 37074.52403 1.90 1.019 1.90 -10.57 1922 39966.33691 7.80 1.078 7.80 5.90 1923 43403.44188 8.60 1.086 8.60 0.80 1924 44011.09007 1.40 1.014 1.40 -7.20 1925 44011.09007 0.00 1.000 0.00 -1.40 1926 46299.66675 5.20 1.052 5.20 5.20 1927 51300.03076 10.80 1.108 10.80 5.60 1928 57199.5343 11.50 1.115 11.50 0.70 1929 57828.72918 1.10 1.011 1.10 -10.40 1930 56614.32587 -2.10 0.979 -2.10 -3.20 1931 54746.05311 -3.30 0.967 -3.30 -1.20 1932 57100.1334 4.30 1.043 4.30 7.60 1933 62182.04527 8.90 1.089 8.90 4.60 1934 67902.79343 9.20 1.092 9.20 0.30 1935 69939.87724 3.00 1.030 3.00 -6.20 1936 78402.60238 12.10 1.121 12.10 9.10 1937 82009.12209 4.60 1.046 4.60 -7.50 1938 85699.53258 4.50 1.045 4.50 -0.10 1939 87842.0209 2.50 1.025 2.50 -2.00 1940 86963.60069 -1.00 0.990 -1.00 -3.50 1941 91224.81712 4.90 1.049 4.90 5.90 1942 88761.74706 -2.70 0.973 -2.70 -7.60 1943 96306.49556 8.50 1.085 8.50 11.20 1944 103625.7892 7.60 1.076 7.60 -0.90 1945 106941.8145 3.20 1.032 3.20 -4.40 1946 119347.065 11.60 1.116 11.60 8.40 1947 122211.3945 2.40 1.024 2.40 -9.20 1948 134065.8998 9.70 1.097 9.70 7.30 1949 144388.9741 7.70 1.077 7.70 -2.00 1950 154207.4243 6.80 1.068 6.80 -0.90 1951 161763.5881 4.90 1.049 4.90 -1.90 1952 173572.33 7.30 1.073 7.30 2.40 1953 181730.2295 4.70 1.047 4.70 -2.60 1954 195905.1874 7.80 1.078 7.80 3.10 1955 213144.8439 8.80 1.088 8.80 1.00 1956 219326.0444 2.90 1.029 2.90 -5.90 1957 236214.1498 7.70 1.077 7.70 4.80 1958 261725.278 10.80 1.108 10.80 3.10 1959 287374.3553 9.80 1.098 9.80 -1.00 1960 314387.5447 9.40 1.094 9.40 -0.40 1961 341424.8735 8.60 1.086 8.60 -0.80 1962 363958.9151 6.60 1.066 6.60 -2.00 1963 366142.6686 0.60 1.006 0.60 -6.00 1964 378591.5194 3.40 1.034 3.40 2.80 1965 387677.7158 2.40 1.024 2.40 -1.00 1966 413652.1228 6.70 1.067 6.70 4.30 1967 431025.512 4.20 1.042 4.20 -2.50 1968 473266.0121 9.80 1.098 9.80 5.60 1969 518226.2833 9.50 1.095 9.50 -0.30 1970 572121.8167 10.40 1.104 5.10 5.30 10.40 0.90 1971 637017.1481 11.34 1.113 4.50 6.84 11.34 0.94 1972 713079.2132 11.94 1.119 5.35 6.59 11.94 0.60 1973 812687.2645 13.97 1.140 6.84 7.13 13.97 2.03 1974 878953.2858 8.15 1.082 2.77 5.39 8.15 -5.81 1975 924365.7177 5.17 1.052 1.91 3.26 5.17 -2.99 1976 1019179.107 10.26 1.103 5.11 5.15 10.26 5.09 1977 1069468.747 4.93 1.049 4.35 0.59 4.93 -5.32 1978 1122620.25 4.97 1.050 4.54 0.43 4.97 0.04 1979 1198504.441 6.76 1.068 3.74 3.02 6.76 1.79 1980 1308766.849 9.20 1.092 2.14 7.06 9.20 2.44 1981 1253144.258 -4.25 0.957 2.18 -6.43 -4.25 -13.45 1982 1263545.356 0.83 1.008 1.13 -0.30 0.83 5.08 1983 1226523.477 -2.93 0.971 3.02 -5.95 -2.93 -3.76 1984 1292755.744 5.40 2.66 1.054 4.74 0.66 5.40 8.33 1985 1394237.07 7.85 2.68 1.078 3.79 4.06 7.85 2.45 1986 1498665.427 7.49 2.66 1.075 3.69 3.80 7.49 -0.36 1987 1551568.316 3.53 2.66 1.035 3.90 -0.37 3.53 -3.96 1988 1550637.375 -0.06 2.66 0.999 4.73 -4.79 -0.06 -3.59 1989 1599637.516 3.16 2.66 1.032 3.79 -0.63 3.16 3.22 1990 1530053.285 -4.35 2.66 0.957 2.94 -7.29 -4.35 -7.51 1991 1545835.544 1.03 2.66 1.010 1.65 -0.62 1.03 5.38 1992 1538617.807 -0.47 -0.47 2.66 0.995 2.39 -2.85 -0.47 -1.50 1993 1610396.65 4.67 4.67 2.66 1.047 2.44 2.22 4.67 5.13 1994 1696301.003 5.33 5.33 2.66 1.053 3.81 1.53 5.33 0.67 1995 1771223.768 4.42 4.42 2.66 1.044 3.70 0.72 4.42 -0.92 1996 1809305.079 2.15 2.15 2.66 1.022 4.07 -1.92 2.15 -2.27 1997 1870368.018 3.37 3.37 2.66 1.034 4.21 -0.84 3.37 1.22 1998 1871032.227 0.04 0.04 2.66 1.000 2.73 -2.69 0.04 -3.34 1999 1875814.532 0.26 0.26 2.66 1.003 3.74 -3.49 0.26 0.22 2000 1956582.335 4.31 4.31 2.66 1.043 4.83 -0.53 4.31 4.05 2001 1982309.361 1.31 1.31 2.66 1.013 2.55 -1.23 1.31 -2.99 2002 2034958.987 2.66 2.66 2.66 1.027 3.10 -0.44 2.66 1.34 2003 2058294.86 1.15 1.15 2.66 1.011 4.04 -2.90 1.15 -1.51 2004 2175904.118 5.71 5.71 4.20 1.057 5.29 0.42 4.31 5.71 4.57 2005 2244583.32 3.16 3.16 4.20 1.032 4.90 -1.74 4.31 3.16 -2.56 2006 2333365.911 3.96 3.96 4.20 1.040 5.50 -1.54 4.31 3.96 0.80 2007 2475595.18 6.10 6.10 4.20 1.061 5.00 1.10 4.31 6.10 2.14 2008 2603566.097 5.17 5.17 4.20 1.052 4.60 0.57 4.31 2009 2595755.399 -0.30 -0.33 4.20 0.997 4.31 2010 2791309.629 7.53 7.53 4.20 1.075 4.31 2011* 2867582.422 2.73 4.20 1.027 4.31 2012* 2973682.972 3.70 4.20 1.037 4.31 2013* 3113446.072 4.70 1.047 4.31 2014* 3258221.314 4.65 1.047 4.31 2015* 3408099.495 4.60 1.046 4.31 2016 3561463.972 4.50 1.045 2017 3721729.851 4.50 1.045 2018 3889207.694 4.50 1.045 2019 4064222.04 4.50 1.045 2020 4247112.032 4.50 1.045 1971-1980 8.7 1981-1990 1.7 1991-2000 2.5 2001-2010 3.6 2011-2020 4.3 2006 4.0 2007 6.1 2008 5.2 2009 -0.3 2010 7.5 2011 2.7 2012 3.7

BRAZILIAN GDP – ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE

1984 - 2014

CRESCIMENTO DO PIB

1984 - 2012

SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO 2

5.4

7.8

7.5

3.5 -0.1

3.2 -4.3

1.0 -0.5

4.7

5.3

4.4

2.1

3.4 0.0 0.3

4.3

1.3

2.7

1.1

5.7

3.2

4.0

6.1

5.2 -0.3

7.5

2.7

0.9 2.4 2.1

-5.0

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

9.0 1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

₂

0

1

3 *

2

0

1

4 *

Média dos 20 anos

anteriores: 2,7%

Média dos 11 anos:

3,6%

CRESCIMENTO ANUAL DO PIB BRASILEIRO - % - 1984 - 2013 Fonte: IBGE e IPEA

Elaboração e Projeção: Bradesco

20 YEARS

AVERAGE: 2.7%

10 YEARS

AVERAGE:

(3)

3 THE KEY CHALLENGES OF

BRAZILIAN ECONOMY:

DEMOGRAPHY, LABOR

MARKET AND EXTERNAL

ENVIRONMENT

PARA

COMBATER A

INFLAÇÃO

BASAL, O

BRASIL

PRECISARIA DE

UMA ESPÉCIE

DE PLANO REAL

II

3

(4)

LOW UNEMPLOYMENT IN

BRAZIL IS FUNDAMENTALLY

EXPLAINED BY

DEMOGRAPHIC ISSUES

LABOR SUPPLY GROWTHS

TOO SLOWLY

(5)

BRAZILIAN POPULATION: TOTAL, WORKING AGE, LABOR FORCE

(SUPPLY), EMPLOYED POPULATION (DEMAND) AND

UNEMPLOYED IN MILLION PEOPLE

5

195,2

166,6

100,0

93,3

6,7

2

52

102

152

202

252 M

il

hões

2011

Total

Population

_{Work Force}

_Supply

_Demand

Unemployed

(6)

BRAZILIAN LABOR MARKET: SUPPLY AND DEMAND

(12-MONTHS CHANGE)

6 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO

1.67%

3.38%

0.73%

3.49%

2.04%

1.77%

0.62%

2.61%

1.55%

1.80%

2.01%

1.22%

1.43%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

ju l/ 0 5 o u t/ 0 5 ja n /0 6 a b r /0 6 ju l/ 0 6 o u t/ 0 6 ja n /0 7 a b r /0 7 ju l/ 0 7 o u t/ 0 7 ja n /0 8 a b r /0 8 ju l/ 0 8 o u t/ 0 8 ja n /0 9 a b r /0 9 ju l/ 0 9 o u t/ 0 9 ja n /1 0 a b r /1 0 ju l/ 1 0 o u t/ 1 0 ja n /1 1 a b r /1 1 ju l/ 1 1 o u t/ 1 1 ja n /1 2 a b r /1 2 ju l/ 1 2 o u t/ 1 2 ja n /1 3 a b r /1 3 ju l/ 1 3

Demand

Supply

(7)

BRAZILIAN POPULATION AGED BETWEEN 18 AND 24 (IN MILLION)

SOURCE: PNAD/IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO 7

23.5

24.0

24.5

24.8

25.0

24.8

24.6

24.4

24.2

24.1

24.0 _23.9

23.9 _23.9

_23.9

22.5

23.0

23.5

24.0

24.5

25.0

25.5 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

M

il

h

õ

e

s

18 a 24

(8)

POPULATION RATE OF GROWTH – WORLD AND BRAZIL

8 SOURCE: WORLD BANK, BRADESCO

1.41%

0.98%

0.87%

0.75%

0.63%

1.26%

1.17%

1.12%

1.02%

0.96%

0.04%

0.24%

0.44%

0.64%

0.84%

1.04%

1.24%

1.44%

1.64%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Brasil

Mundo

WORLD BRAZIL

(9)

BRAZILIAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE – SIX MAJOR

METROPOLITAN AREAS ANNUAL AVERAGE (2005 – 2014)

9

9.9

10.0

9.3

7.9

8.1

6.7

6.0

5.5

5.6

6.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

TAXA DE DESEMPREGO

Fonte: IBGE

SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

(10)

BRAZILIAN NET CREATION OF FORMAL JOB – ‘000 INDIVIDUAL

JOBS

10

-271

-36

-582

-196

658

591

762

645 1,523

1,254 1,229

1,617

1,452

995 2,137

1,566

868

650

856 -1,000

-500

0

500 1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

_2013*

_2014*

GERAÇÃO LÍQUIDA DE EMPREGO FORMAL

**1996 - 2013. Fonte: Caged. Elaboração e projeções (*): Bradesco**

Em postos de trabalho

SOURCE: CAGED FORECAST: BRADESCO

(11)

-1.3%

1.5%

4.0%

3.2%

3.4%

3.2%

3.8%

2.7%

4.1%

1.6%

2.0%

-2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

RENDIMENTO MÉDIO REAL - CRESCIMENTO ANUAL

Fonte: IBGE

Elaboração: Bradesco

BRAZILIAN REAL WAGES – ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE

11 SOURCE: IBGE

(12)

12

BRAZILIAN NOMINAL WAGES ADJUSTMENTS – BRADESCO

SURVEY – ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE

SOURCE: MBA / BRADESCO

7.43

7.62

7.22

6.17

8.04

7.08

6.13

6.57

7.08

8.87

7.36

9.08

8.52

7.23

8.08

8.45

6.76

8.28

7.77

9.30

8.11

9.31 9.71 9.70

9.19

8.72

8.53

8.25 8.10 8.06

8.64

8.30

8.07

8.05

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

ja n /1 0 fe v /1 0 m a r /1 0 a b r /1 0 m a i/ 1 0 ju n /1 0 ju l/ 1 0 a g o /1 0 s e t/ 1 0 o u t/ 1 0 n o v /1 0 d e z/ 1 0 ja n /1 1 fe v /1 1 m a r /1 1 a b r /1 1 m a i/ 1 1 ju n /1 1 ju l/ 1 1 a g o /1 1 s e t/ 1 1 o u t/ 1 1 n o v /1 1 d e z/ 1 1 ja n /1 2 fe v /1 2 m a r /1 2 a b r /1 2 m a i/ 1 2 ju n /1 2 ju l/ 1 2 a g o /1 2 s e t/ 1 2 o u t/ 1 2 n o v /1 2 d e z/ 1 2 ja n /1 3 fe v /1 3 m a r /1 3 a b r /1 3 m a i/ 1 3 ju n /1 3 ju l/ 1 3 a g o /1 3 s e t/ 1 3

REAJUSTES SALARIAIS NOMINAIS

– PESQUISA PROPRIETÁRIA – TODOS OS

SETORES AGREGADOS

(13)

13 INDUSTRY THAT WAS NOT

ALREADY COMPETITIVE WAS

NOT PREPARED FOR

INCREASED COSTS OF

WAGES.

BESIDES THIS, GLOBAL

DEMAND ACCOMODATED IN A

SLOWER PACE OF GROWTH

(14)

PERCENT CHANGES IN HOURLY COMPENSATION COSTS IN

MANUFACTURING, US$, 2006-2011

SOURCE: BLS, BRADESCO

-1.5%

8.9%

16.0%

23.0%

25.3%

27.9%

28.9%

31.0%

33.8%

35.2%

42.9%

47.7%

49.3%

57.9%

61.0%

79.4%

94.5%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

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14

(15)

2006 = 100

BRAZILIAN MANUFACTURING EXPORTS – QUANTUM, INDEX

NUMBER – 12 MONTHS MOVING AVERAGE

SOURCE: FUNCEX, BRADESCO

EVOLUÇÃO DO QUANTUM EXPORTADO DE

BENS MANUFATURADOS

MÉDIA 12 MESES –

2007 - 2013

98.1

99.8

102.1

103.6

100.8

98.1

84.7

75.7

80.6

83.2

84.7

84.2 _82.6

82.2

84.2

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

ju n /0 5 a g o /0 5 o u t/ 0 5 d e z /0 5 fe v /0 6 a b r /0 6 ju n /0 6 a g o /0 6 o u t/ 0 6 d e z /0 6 fe v /0 7 a b r /0 7 ju n /0 7 a g o /0 7 o u t/ 0 7 d e z /0 7 fe v /0 8 a b r /0 8 ju n /0 8 a g o /0 8 o u t/ 0 8 d e z /0 8 fe v /0 9 a b r /0 9 ju n /0 9 a g o /0 9 o u t/ 0 9 d e z /0 9 fe v /1 0 a b r /1 0 ju n /1 0 a g o /1 0 o u t/ 1 0 d e z /1 0 fe v /1 1 a b r /1 1 ju n /1 1 a g o /1 1 o u t/ 1 1 d e z /1 1 fe v /1 2 a b r /1 2 ju n /1 2 a g o /1 2 o u t/ 1 2 d e z /1 2 fe v /1 3 a b r /1 3 ju n /1 3 a g o /1 3 15

(16)

BRAZILIAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (ANNUAL RATE OF

CHANGE)

2.7%

0.1%

8.3%

3.1%

_2.8%

6.0%

3.1%

-7.4%

10.5%

0.4%

-2.6%

2.0%

2.5%

-9.0% -5.0% -1.0% 3.0% 7.0% 11.0%

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

PRODUÇÃO INDUSTRIAL - CRESCIMENTO ANUAL

Fonte: IBGE

SOURCE: IBGE

FORECAST: BRADESCO 16

(17)

17 AS A RESULT, HIGH WAGES WILL

KEEP CONSUMPTION

INCREASING.

BESIDES THIS, IMPROVEMENT IN

SOCIAL MOBILILITY

ACCUMULATED OVER THE LAST

YEARS SUSTAIN FAMILY

DEMAND FOR GOODS AND

SERVICE.

(18)

BRAZILIAN RETAIL SALES – INCLUIDING AUTO AND BUILDING

MATERIALS (ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE)

SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO 18 10.7% 3.5% 6.5% 13.5% 9.8% 7.0% 12.0% 6.9% 7.8% 3.9% 3.2% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 12.0% 15.0%

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

PROJEÇÕES PMC AMPLIADA

(19)

BRAZILIAN SOCIAL MOBILITY: NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN CLASSES

A,B AND C - 12-MONTHS MOVING AVERAGE

SOURCE: PME, PNAD/IBGE, BRADESCO

80.617

88.178

97.109

99.760

106.200

111.907

117.873

120.353

126.118

129.103

73.0 79.0 85.0 91.0 97.0 103.0 109.0 115.0 121.0 127.0 ju l/ 0 4 s e t/ 0 4 n o v /0 4 ja n /0 5 m a r/ 0 5 m a i/ 0 5 ju l/ 0 5 s e t/ 0 5 n o v /0 5 ja n /0 6 m a r/ 0 6 m a i/ 0 6 ju l/ 0 6 s e t/ 0 6 n o v /0 6 ja n /0 7 m a r/ 0 7 m a i/ 0 7 ju l/ 0 7 s e t/ 0 7 n o v /0 7 ja n /0 8 m a r/ 0 8 m a i/ 0 8 ju l/ 0 8 s e t/ 0 8 n o v /0 8 ja n /0 9 m a r/ 0 9 m a i/ 0 9 ju l/ 0 9 s e t/ 0 9 n o v /0 9 ja n /1 0 m a r/ 1 0 m a i/ 1 0 ju l/ 1 0 s e t/ 1 0 n o v /1 0 ja n /1 1 m a r/ 1 1 m a i/ 1 1 ju l/ 1 1 s e t/ 1 1 n o v /1 1 ja n /1 2 m a r/ 1 2 m a i/ 1 2 ju l/ 1 2 s e t/ 1 2 n o v /1 2 ja n /1 3 m a r/ 1 3 m a i/ 1 3 ju l/ 1 3 M il h õ e s

Classes ABC

Fonte: IBGE Elaboração: Bradesco Em milhões 19

(20)

37.9%

20.0%

33.3%

3.8%

5.0%

18.4%

_17.9%

53.2%

5.7%

_4.8%

11.9%

16.3%

58.9%

7.9%

5.1%

00%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Classe E

Classe D

Classe C

Classe B

Classe A

2000 2010 2020*

BRAZILIAN SOCIAL CLASSES, IN MILLION PEOPLE

SOURCE: IBGE; BRADESCO

CLASSE A:

R$ 7.006 OU MAIS

CLASSE B:

DE R$ 4.635 A R$ 7.006

CLASSE C:

DE R$ 1.159 A R$ 4.635

CLASSE D:

DE R$ 701 A R$ 1.159

CLASSE E:

ATÉ R$ 701

20

(21)

BRAZILIAN GRAIN PRODUCTION 1991 - 2013

G:\Area Economica\BBV\Regina\ palestra agribusiness - arroz preços internos.xls

EM MIL TON

* Projeção

SOURCE AND FORECAST: CONAB, USDA, BRADESCO 21

57,901

68,400 68,253

76,035

81,065

78,427

83,030

100,267

96,761

123,168

113,898

122,531

131,751

144,137

135,135

149,255

162,803

166,172

187,094

30,000

50,000

70,000

90,000

110,000

130,000

150,000

170,000

190,000

9

0 /9

1

9

1 /9

2

9

2 /9

3

9

3 /9

4

9

4 /9

5

9

5 /9

6

9

6 /9

7

9

7 /9

8

9

8 /9

9

9 /0

0

0 /0

1

0

1 /0

2

0

2 /0

3

0

3 /0

4

0

4 /0

5

0

5 /0

6

0

6 /0

7

0

7 /0

8

0

8 /0

9

0

9 /1

0

1

0 /1

1

1 /1

2

1

2 /1

3

(22)

INFLATION

BEHAVIOUR WILL

DEPEND ON:

FOOD, SERVICES

AND PASS THROUGH

(23)

BRAZILIAN NOMINAL INCOME AND SERVICE INFLATION

CONSUMER PRICES INDEX - HIKE ACCUMULATED SINCE JAN/2004

2004 - 2013

3.1%

14.8%

26.2%

49.7%

76.8%

96.3%

112.2%

19.8%

36.3%

56.1%

69.5%

86.7%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

ju

l/

0

4 o

u

t/

0

4 ja

n

/0

5 a

b

r/

0

5 ju

l/

0

5 o

u

t/

0

5 ja

n

/0

6 a

b

r/

0

6 ju

l/

0

6 o

u

t/

0

6 ja

n

/0

7 a

b

r/

0

7 ju

l/

0

7 o

u

t/

0

7 ja

n

/0

8 a

b

r/

0

8 ju

l/

0

8 o

u

t/

0

8 ja

n

/0

9 a

b

r/

0

9 ju

l/

0

9 o

u

t/

0

9 ja

n

/1

0 a

b

r/

1

0 ju

l/

1

0 o

u

t/

1

0 ja

n

/1

1 a

b

r/

1

1 ju

l/

1

1 o

u

t/

1

1 ja

n

/1

2 a

b

r/

1

2 ju

l/

1

2 o

u

t/

1

2 ja

n

/1

3 a

b

r/

1

3 ju

l/

1

3 Nominal income

Services inflation

(24)

BRAZILIAN NOMINAL INCOME AND DURABLE GOODS INFLATION

CONSUMER PRICES INDEX - HIKE ACCUMULATED SINCE JAN/2004

2004 - 2013

3.10%

7.23%

23.28%

25.72%

34.85%

49.73%

60.93%

72.07%

74.86%

85.01%

96.25%

95.05%

112.24%

9.32%

11.13%

8.38%

8.40%

_5.28%

7.09%

1.33%

3.64%

-5.0%

15.0%

35.0%

55.0%

75.0%

95.0%

115.0%

ju l/ 0 4 o u t/ 0 4 ja n /0 5 a b r/ 0 5 ju l/ 0 5 o u t/ 0 5 ja n /0 6 a b r/ 0 6 ju l/ 0 6 o u t/ 0 6 ja n /0 7 a b r/ 0 7 ju l/ 0 7 o u t/ 0 7 ja n /0 8 a b r/ 0 8 ju l/ 0 8 o u t/ 0 8 ja n /0 9 a b r/ 0 9 ju l/ 0 9 o u t/ 0 9 ja n /1 0 a b r/ 1 0 ju l/ 1 0 o u t/ 1 0 ja n /1 1 a b r/ 1 1 ju l/ 1 1 o u t/ 1 1 ja n /1 2 a b r/ 1 2 ju l/ 1 2 o u t/ 1 2 ja n /1 3 a b r/ 1 3 ju l/ 1 3

nominal income

durable goods

(25)

BRAZILIAN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – FOOD COMPONENT

(12-MONTHS PERCENT CHANGE)

11.20%

9.84%

13.28%

18.45%

13.37%

1.57%

2.31%

0.88%

6.67%

2.29%

10.68%

6.22%

9.81%

4.48%

10.80%

10.02%

15.71%

11.93%

8.41%

0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 18.00% 20.00% s e t/ 0 7 n o v /0 7 ja n /0 8 m a r/ 0 8 m a i/ 0 8 ju l/ 0 8 s e t/ 0 8 n o v /0 8 ja n /0 9 m a r/ 0 9 m a i/ 0 9 ju l/ 0 9 s e t/ 0 9 n o v /0 9 ja n /1 0 m a r/ 1 0 m a i/ 1 0 ju l/ 1 0 s e t/ 1 0 n o v /1 0 ja n /1 1 m a r/ 1 1 m a i/ 1 1 ju l/ 1 1 s e t/ 1 1 n o v /1 1 ja n /1 2 m a r/ 1 2 m a i/ 1 2 ju l/ 1 2 s e t/ 1 2 n o v /1 2 ja n /1 3 m a r/ 1 3 m a i/ 1 3 ju l/ 1 3 s e t/ 1 3

12M

(26)

BRAZILIAN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

12-MONTHS PERCENT CHANGE

26 SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

6.41%

4.17%

5.22%

4.84%

6.87%

7.23%

4.92%

5.84%

6.70%

5.90%

2.5%

3.5%

4.5%

5.5%

6.5%

7.5%

8.5%

ja

n

/0

8 m

a

r/

0

8 m

a

i/

0

8 ju

l/

0

8 s

e

t/

0

8 n

o

v

/0

8 ja

n

/0

9 m

a

r/

0

9 m

a

i/

0

9 ju

l/

0

9 s

e

t/

0

9 n

o

v

/0

9 ja

n

/1

0 m

a

r/

1

0 m

a

i/

1

0 ju

l/

1

0 s

e

t/

1

0 n

o

v

/1

0 ja

n

/1

1 m

a

r/

1

1 m

a

i/

1

1 ju

l/

1

1 s

e

t/

1

1 n

o

v

/1

1 ja

n

/1

2 m

a

r/

1

2 m

a

i/

1

2 ju

l/

1

2 s

e

t/

1

2 n

o

v

/1

2 ja

n

/1

3 m

a

r/

1

3 m

a

i/

1

3 ju

l/

1

3 s

e

t/

1

3 n

o

v

/1

3

(27)

BRAZILIAN CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION (IPCA) - 2002-2014*

12.53%

9.30%

7.60%

5.69%

3.14%

4.46%

5.90%

4.31%

5.91%

6.50%

5.84%

5.90%

_5.80%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2

0

1

3 *

2

0

1

4 *

(28)

28 PRODUCTIVITY MUST

INCREASE IN BRAZIL

GAP BETWEEN SUPPLY AND

DEMAND WILL BE CLOSED

WITH SUPPLY EXPANSION,

LABOR FORCE QUALIFICATION

AND INFRASTRUCTURE

(29)

29

1.5

8.7 -0.3

-8.2

5.0

0.4 -5.2

-4.6

9.1

3.6

9.8

13.9

13.6 -6.7

21.3

4.7 -4.0

6.0

4.5 -12.0

-9.0

-6.0

-3.0

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

15.0

18.0

21.0

24.0 1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2

0

1

3 (p

)

2

0

1

4 (p

)

INVESTMENTS – FROM BRAZILIAN GDP FIGURES (ANNUAL

RATE OF CHANGE)

(30)

BRAZILIAN AVERAGE SCHOOLING YEARS

PEOPLE AGED 25 OR MORE

SOURCE: PNAD/IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

5,9

6,1

6,2

6,4

6,5

6,7

6,8

7,0

7,2

7,3

7,4

7,5

8,6

5,8 6,3 6,8 7,3 7,8 8,3 8,8

2

0

1

2

0

2

0

3

2

0

4

20

05

2

0

6

2

0

7

2

0

8

2

0

9

2

0

1

0 *

2

0

1

2

0

1

2 *

2

0

2

0 *

Média por Ano - 25

(31)

31 OUTLOOK FOR

INTEREST RATE

AND EXCHANGE

RATE

31

(32)

BRAZILIAN NOMINAL INTEREST RATE (SELIC) 2008-2014

SOURCE: BCB FORECAST: BRADESCO 32

11.75%

13.00%

13.75%

12.75%

11.25%

10.25%

8.75%8.75%

9.50%

10.25%

10.75%

11.25%

12.00%

12.50%

11.00%

10.50%

9.75%

9.00%

8.50%

8.00%

7.25%

8.00%

8.50%

9.00%

9.50%

10.00%

10.25%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

m

a

r-0

8 ju

n

-0

8 s

e

t-0

8 d

e

z

-0

8 m

a

r-0

9 ju

n

-0

9 s

e

t-0

9 d

e

z

-0

9 m

a

r-1

0 ju

n

-1

0 s

e

t-1

0 d

e

z

-1

0 m

a

r-1

1 ju

n

-1

1 s

e

t-1

1 d

e

z

-1

1 m

a

r-1

2 ju

n

-1

2 s

e

t-1

2 d

e

z

-1

2 m

a

r-1

3 ju

n

-1

3 s

e

t-1

3 d

e

z

-1

3 m

a

r-1

4 ju

n

-1

4 s

e

t-1

4 d

e

z

-1

4 Cenário básico para a taxa de juros - Selic

Cenário básico para a taxa de juros - Selic

(33)

BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE - R$/US$ 2009 - 2013

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG FORECAST: BRADESCO 33

1.70

1.86

1.73

1.88

1.65

1.74

1.64

1.54

1.91

1.72

1.69

1.88

2.03

2.08

1.99

2.12

2.04

1.95

2.14

2.25

2.44

2.28

2.20

1.45

1.65

1.85

2.05

2.25

2.45

0

7 /1

0 /0

9

0 7 /1 1 /0 9

0

7 /1

2 /0

9

0

7 /0

1 /1

0

7 /0

2 /1

0

7 /0

3 /1

0

7 /0

4 /1

0

7 /0

5 /1

0

7 /0

6 /1

0

7 /0

7 /1

0

0 7 /0 8 /1 0

0

7 /0

9 /1

0

7 /1

0 /1

0

7 /1

1 /1

0

7 /1

2 /1

0

7 /0

1 /1

1

0

7 /0

2 /1

1

0

7 /0

3 /1

1

0

7 /0

4 /1

1

0 7 /0 5 /1 1

0

7 /0

6 /1

1

0

7 /0

7 /1

1

0

7 /0

8 /1

1

0

7 /0

9 /1

1

0

7 /1

0 /1

1

0

7 /1

1 /1

1

0

7 /1

2 /1

1

0

7 /0

1 /1

2

0

7 /0

2 /1

2

0

7 /0

3 /1

2

0

7 /0

4 /1

2

0

7 /0

5 /1

2

0 7 /0 6 /1 2

0

7 /0

7 /1

2

0

7 /0

8 /1

2

0

7 /0

9 /1

2

0

7 /1

0 /1

2

0

7 /1

1 /1

2

0

7 /1

2 /1

2

0 7 /0 1 /1 3

0

7 /0

2 /1

3

0 7 /0 3 /1 3

0

7 /0

4 /1

3

0

7 /0

5 /1

3

0

7 /0

6 /1

3

0

7 /0

7 /1

3

0

7 /0

8 /1

3

0

7 /0

9 /1

3

0 7 /1 0 /1 3

DECEMBER 2009

R$ 1.74 / US$

DECEMBER 2008

R$ 2.34 / US$

DECEMBER 2010

R$ 1.67 / US$

DECEMBER 2011

R$ 1.88 / US$

DECEMBER 2012

R$ 2.04 / US$

DECEMBER 2013

R$ 2.25 / US$

DECEMBER 2014

R$ 2.35 / US$

(34)

1.96

2.32

3.53

2.89

2.65

2.34

2.14

1.77

2.34

1.74

1.67

1.88

2.04

2.25

2.35

0.8

1.4

2

2.6

3.2

3.8

2

0

2

0

1

2

0

2

0

3

2

0

4

2

0

5

2

0

6

2

0

7

2

0

8

2

0

9

2

0

1

0

2

0

1

2

0

1

2

0

1

3

2

0

1

4

Taxa de Câm bio (final de ano) - 2003 - 2012- R$/US$ - Fonte: BCB Projeções Bradesco

R$/US$

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG FORECAST: BRADESCO 34

(35)

35

US TREASURIES – 10 YEARS 2009- 2013

Em %

D:\Area Economica\BBV\BLOOMBERG

- T-BOND 10 ANOS E 30 ANOS.xls

3.205

3.826

2.792

2.383

3.549

2.864

2.048

2.219

2.269

1.508

1.668

1.615

1.938

1.663

2.165

2.739

2.484

2.994

2.619

1.20

1.70

2.20

2.70

3.20

3.70

4.20

2

8 /1

0 /0

9

2

7 /1

1 /0

9

2

7 /1

2 /0

9

2

6 /0

1 /1

0

2

5 /0

2 /1

0

2

7 /0

3 /1

0

2

6 /0

4 /1

0

2

6 /0

5 /1

0

2

5 /0

6 /1

0

2

5 /0

7 /1

0

2

4 /0

8 /1

0

2

3 /0

9 /1

0

2

3 /1

0 /1

0

2

2 /1

1 /1

0

2

2 /1

0

2

1 /0

1 /1

1

2

0 /0

2 /1

1

2

2 /0

3 /1

1

2

1 /0

4 /1

1

2

1 /0

5 /1

1

2

0 /0

6 /1

1

2

0 /0

7 /1

1

9 /0

8 /1

1

8 /0

9 /1

1

8 /1

0 /1

1

7 /1

1 /1

1

7 /1

2 /1

1

6 /0

1 /1

2

1

5 /0

2 /1

2

1

6 /0

3 /1

2

1

5 /0

4 /1

2

1

5 /0

5 /1

2

1

4 /0

6 /1

2

1

4 /0

7 /1

2

1

3 /0

8 /1

2

1

2 /0

9 /1

2

1

2 /1

0 /1

2

1

1 /1

2

1

1 /1

2 /1

2

1

0 /0

1 /1

3

0

9 /0

2 /1

3

1

1 /0

3 /1

3

1

0 /0

4 /1

3

1

0 /0

5 /1

3

0

9 /0

6 /1

3

0

9 /0

7 /1

3

0

8 /0

8 /1

3

0

7 /0

9 /1

3

0

7 /1

0 /1

3

TAXA DE JUROS DO TÍTULO DE 10 ANOS DO TESOURO AMERICANO 2006- 2013. Fonte: Bloomberg

(36)

36

CHINESE GDP – ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE

1981 - 2014

SOURCE: CEIC FORECAST: BRADESCO

5.2

9.3

11.2

15.2

13.2

8.5

11.511.3

4.1

3.8

9.2

14.2

14.0

13.1

10.9

10.0

9.3 7.8 7.6

8.4 8.3

9.1

10.1

11.3

12.7

14.2

9.6

9.2

10.4

9.3 7.7 7.5

6.9

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0 1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

China: crescimento anual do PIB (variação interanual). Fonte: Bloomberg

Elaboração e projeções: Bradesco

(37)

BRAZILIAN CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT (IN USD MILLION)

SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO FORECAST: BRADESCO

-1,811

-18,384

-23,502

-30,452

-33,416

-25,335

-24,225-23,215

-7,637

4,177

11,679

13,985 13,643

1,551

-28,192

-24,302

-47,273

-52,480

-54,246

-79,645

-76,442

-85,000

-76,000

-67,000

-58,000

-49,000

-40,000

-31,000

-22,000

-13,000

-4,000

5,000

14,000

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

37

(38)

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT – US$ million

SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO 38

28,856 28,578

32,779

22,457

16,590

10,144

18,146

15,066

18,822

34,585

45,058

25,949

48,506

66,660

65,272

60,000 60,000

0 9,000

18,000

27,000

36,000

45,000

54,000

63,000

72,000

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

₂

0

1

3 *

2

0

1

4 *