Jakob Bielfeld (1717–1770) and the diffusion of statistical concepts in eighteenth century

In the first half of the 18th century, political arithmetic was a declining discipline in England [Studenski 1961: 40; Deane 1987]; its revival in the second half of the century was predominantly continental [Todhunter 1865; Hacking 1984]. Each of the three sections contains two subsections, the first on primary sources, the second on descendants. This hymn was reproduced as a preface to the posthumous edition of the third volume of Institutions politiques [Bielfeld 1772:xi-xviii].

Statistique”, and this is the first occurrence of the word in French in 1767, then in English through Hooper's translation [Bielfeld 1770b]. Fifteen years later, in his history of the Rheinsberg court, Andrew Hamilton devotes chapter XVI of volume I to Bielfeld's letters. One of his close friends read his "Eulogy" in a public meeting of the academy of Berlin, in 1770: it is easy to understand that the author and his works are not judged strictly.].

Of political calculations

As announced, the chapter begins with a historical review of the field, introduced by an emphatic tribute to English forerunners. A place where all parts of Mathematics are so carefully cultivated; who has the honor of inventing so many famous calculations, who produced the famous Newton, the father of all calculations; A nation which can weigh to the stars, and which unites to that talent a decided taste for politics, cannot but reduce to principles of calculation, the chief objects of the government of a state.]. The list of authors from all over Europe cited by Bielfeld testifies to his extensive knowledge of the field: see Théré and Rohrbasser in [Martin.

Thorough accounts of the most important works, such as those by Petty, Süssmilch, Vauban, Kersseboom, etc. When you say something, it is impossible to work with complete precision. Every city in this respect resembles a dovecote, or an open beehive, whose inhabitants, always on the move, go in and out, move relentlessly, and confound the accuracy of the most indefatigable calculator that would determine their number would bring. ].

But these models still lack, I think, some of the rectifications and extensions which orders from the sovereign or his ministers can easily give them. It seems necessary to me to add to this paragraph (see at the end of the chapter) the models of four tables containing the parts of the population, or the data most essential for political arithmetic in general, and the mere inspection of which will give a clearer idea of ​​that kind of calculation.]. It is interesting to note that such tabular models, and their generalization to all kinds of data, formed the basic instrument of the “great avalanche of printed numbers” half a century later [Hacking 1990:2].

Thus, the data collection methodology is clearly described, which should be generalized at the turn of the century. It is clear that this establishment or this contract is only a game, which has its chances like any other, and whose profit or loss depends only on the duration, more or less long, of the life of the person on whom the irredeemable fund is placed.]. We have just remarked that each such institution has its own possibilities; therefore it must also have its own fair dimensions, if one of the contracting parties or gamblers, if you like, must not be an obvious fraud.].

The determination of the proportions of the different ages of human life also serves as a rule for the calculation of tontines.

Diffusion in Europe

Overall, it can be noted that Bielfeld's views on political arithmetic seem quite coherent with other contemporaneous accounts, especially that of Condorcet in the Encyclopédie Méthodique [Bru and Crépel 1994, Feldmann 2005]. An interesting trail of personal circulation can be found in Francesco Algarotti's correspondence with Voltaire. The compliment is somewhat exaggerated and may be tainted with a trace of irony, since the correspondent is Voltaire; yet Formey, as we have seen in his eulogy, had a sincere appreciation of the book.

Indeed, Baron Bielfeld, in his great work on political institutions, has embraced all that, in the widest sense, may enter into the administration of a state.]. Evidence to the contrary can be found in several editions of popular encyclopedias, mainly those of Robinet and Felice [Crépel 2003a]. Plagiarism was the custom of the time, and the fact that Bielfeld [1760b] is explicitly cited at the end of the Tontine article [Crépel 2003a:63] is rather unusual.

Probably not confident enough in his understanding of mathematics, Süssmilch sought the help of Euler, who was widely regarded as the best mathematician of the time. Euler, a mathematician of the first rank, and perhaps the greatest algebraist who ever lived, St.

The series of papers he wrote in the 1760s on population, annuities, lotteries, tontines [Todhunter Euler 1923:xxiii-xxv] were probably triggered by his reading of Bielfeld and the discussions with Süssmilch. Regardless of whether Euler explicitly showed all his calculations in Süssmilch's book, the claim that an uncontrolled population will grow geometrically in the long run is of crucial importance.

The elements of universal erudition

It was this idea of ​​universal geometric population growth – hinted at by Wallace, discovered by Euler, spread by Süssmilch, applied by Price, exploited by Malthus and inspiring Darwin – that led directly to Darwin's concept of natural selection. Yet Bielfeld knows what he owes to Büsching, even though the 'founder of statistical geography' usually prefers to talk about geography rather than statistik [Büsching 1764:Vorbericht]. However, we must exclude some, especially those found in M's excellent geography.

Godfrey Achenwal, professor in Göttingen, who composed not only an introduction to the political system of the modern states of Europe, and another no less interesting work, entitled Principles of the history of Europe, leading to the knowledge of the most important states of the present time, but has also been the first to reduce this important subject to a real system, and to make of it a separate science, under the title of Statistics, and which he professes with great reputation; a science from which history derives great light; which supplies the best materials for the constitution of a state, which enriches politics, and which prepares those of the brightest talents among the studious youth to one day become able ministers of the state. Everything that happens in a state is not worth mentioning, but everything that is worth mentioning in a state is necessarily included in the statistics. With regard to the inhabitants, she inquires into their numbers and their qualities: and for this purpose, with the aid of political arithmetic, she makes registers of births and burials, etc.

This is reminiscent of Büsching's use of political arithmetic, even if he does not explicitly refer to statistics. I have set forth the probable number of inhabitants in several countries and great cities, or inserted an account of their births and burials from the annual Bills of Mortality; but this could not be done for all. These daily and periodical publications furnish a constant supplement to the best statistical authors, and form a kind of practical statistics.

So Bielfeld's description of the discipline, although quite distant from the modern meaning, is consistent with the generally accepted German definitions of the time.

The term ‘statistics’

Even if they did not achieve the popularity of the policies of the institutions, the Elements of Universal Erudition had considerable success. The work's apparent popularity in Europe led to an English translation by William Hooper, published in London in 1770 in three volumes as Elements of Universal Erudition and pirated the following year in Dublin. The great variety of subjects to which the statistician's attention must be devoted has been ably and comprehensively arranged by Baron Bielfield in his "Elements of Universal Erudition."

He did not attempt to put his theory into practice by an actual study of the circumstances of the German Empire. It appears to have been first used by Sir John Sinclair in his plan for an account of the trade, population, and productions of any parish in Scotland, with the food, diseases, and longevity of its inhabitants; a lan which reflects the greatest credit on that gentleman's understanding and benevolence, as it is great with advantages both to the philosopher and the politician” [Sinclair 1837:10]. He then acknowledges some early remarks that his father's use of the word was not significantly different from the German acceptance.

Let us return briefly to Sinclair's claim about changing the meaning of the word,. Before Pearson, some early historians of the discipline gave more balanced accounts of the merging of political arithmetic into statistics. Probably the first writer to make it a home in English was Sir John Sinclair whose voluminous Statistical Account of Scotland exercised a traceable influence on both sides of the Atlantic.

A vivid account of the struggles that accompanied the mutation from statistics to statistics is given by John [1883], an article that Pearson had read (cf. Pearson's son's footnote in [Pearson 1921:3]). Another letter, from Dr Guthrie, dated St. Petersburg, September 26, 1792, well describes the early receipt of the "statistical account of Scotland." Elements of universal erudition, containing an analytical compendium of the sciences, polite arts, and belles lettres, vol.

The Correspondence of the Right Honorable Sir John SInclair, Bart., Part I, London: Coburn and Bentley, 1831.