5. Conclusions and Proposals
5.2 Proposals and challenges
Controversial results, referred to relationship between macroeconomic factors and Greek Banking profitability, have been derived by studies executed and we could conclude to very interesting assumptions by diversifying the present research in the future, aiming to have a clearer view of the behavior of Banks in a dynamic economic environment. Firstly, the examination of profitability indicators such as Return on Assets may lead to useful results, if we adjust income statements of Banking Sector by isolating non-recurring transactions
and one-offs income or expense of the period which distort the actual view of the performance of banks. Furthermore, the extension of the period examined may give safer estimates over the subject but a research including also the current period of recession due to COVID19 impact can demonstrate if our results can be applied today or Greek Banks have different levels of tolerance and reaction over macroeconomic movements, compared to period of sovereign debt crisis. In addition, Greek Banking Sector may be compared in terms of economic environment with Banking Sectors in countries with common characteristics of financial conditions such as Portugal which also experienced a fiscal crisis and implemented fiscal adjustment programs, in order to investigate similarities of dependence relationships. Finally, the correlation of the profitability of Greek Banking Sector and macroeconomic factors in European Union level, and not only domestic, may lead to important results about the degree of European integration and dependence of Greek Banks.
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Appendix A: Data of Research
Data Set
Quarter NIM Unemployment Rate
Greek Market Deposits Balance (€ bn)
Greek Market Loans Balance Adj. (€ bn)
CPI GDP (€ bn)
10Y GGB rate
Trade Balance (€ bn)
Mar 2005 3.31% 10.53% 160.1 160.5 88.0 56.9 3.77% -7.9
Jun 2005 3.13% 9.77% 165.4 166.0 89.7 57.1 3.60% -7.5
Sep 2005 3.05% 9.83% 174.6 175.4 89.0 57.9 3.41% -8.1
Dec 2005 3.11% 9.90% 185.3 186.4 90.7 58.1 3.57% -8.1
Mar 2006 2.99% 9.83% 194.2 195.6 90.8 60.0 3.78% -9.0
Jun 2006 3.05% 8.90% 201.8 203.3 92.6 60.2 4.29% -9.1
Sep 2006 3.05% 8.47% 209.2 210.8 92.0 60.5 4.19% -9.0
Dec 2006 3.09% 8.93% 214.5 216.5 93.4 62.0 4.05% -9.3
Mar 2007 2.94% 9.27% 219.4 222.1 93.3 61.6 4.26% -11.4
Jun 2007 2.88% 8.20% 226.3 229.2 95.0 63.4 4.58% -10.2
Sep 2007 2.90% 8.03% 234.8 237.9 94.5 63.0 4.66% -10.0
Dec 2007 2.83% 8.17% 242.3 245.9 96.7 62.6 4.52% -10.9
Mar 2008 2.63% 8.40% 253.9 258.3 97.2 63.0 4.39% -11.1
Jun 2008 2.57% 7.33% 264.3 268.9 99.5 62.6 4.83% -11.6
Sep 2008 2.43% 7.27% 274.9 279.7 98.9 62.6 4.97% -11.1
Dec 2008 2.32% 8.10% 282.9 288.2 99.6 61.7 5.01% -10.5
Mar 2009 1.95% 9.53% 290.8 296.6 98.7 58.8 5.68% -8.7
Jun 2009 2.05% 9.07% 299.9 306.1 100.2 60.4 5.35% -8.7
Sep 2009 2.22% 9.43% 298.7 305.2 99.6 60.0 4.67% -8.9
Dec 2009 2.10% 10.50% 297.2 303.9 101.5 60.0 4.99% -8.8
Mar 2010 2.18% 11.93% 304.9 312.3 101.7 59.0 6.27% -8.4
Jun 2010 2.16% 12.03% 312.7 320.5 105.3 57.2 8.54% -6.9
Sep 2010 2.18% 12.60% 318.3 326.4 105.1 55.2 10.89% -6.5
Dec 2010 2.30% 14.47% 319.4 327.8 106.7 54.6 11.15% -6.6
Mar 2011 2.29% 16.13% 317.6 326.3 106.5 53.0 11.94% -6.6
Jun 2011 2.38% 16.53% 313.7 322.7 109.0 52.2 15.74% -6.0
Sep 2011 2.48% 17.97% 312.9 322.2 107.6 51.1 18.31% -5.9
Dec 2011 2.56% 20.97% 308.6 318.0 109.6 49.1 29.13% -5.2
Mar 2012 2.33% 22.87% 297.0 306.7 108.7 48.6 31.86% -6.1
Jun 2012 1.95% 23.83% 271.9 281.9 110.7 47.7 25.55% -5.0
Sep 2012 2.10% 24.97% 262.6 272.7 109.0 47.1 23.79% -4.5
Dec 2012 1.67% 26.27% 259.4 269.7 110.9 47.1 15.99% -4.9
Mar 2013 1.70% 27.63% 251.1 261.8 108.7 46.0 11.18% -5.3
Jun 2013 1.86% 27.33% 247.2 258.1 110.2 46.1 10.34% -4.2
Sep 2013 1.99% 27.23% 242.7 253.6 107.9 46.2 10.32% -4.5
Dec 2013 2.16% 27.80% 240.1 251.4 108.5 46.0 8.83% -4.6
Mar 2014 2.19% 27.87% 238.1 249.6 107.2 46.3 7.60% -4.8
Jun 2014 2.28% 26.77% 234.7 246.2 108.6 46.2 6.17% -4.7
Sep 2014 2.33% 25.23% 231.4 243.3 107.3 46.8 6.01% -5.1
Dec 2014 2.47% 26.00% 232.4 245.2 106.5 46.3 8.00% -5.1
Mar 2015 2.38% 26.40% 236.1 249.7 104.7 46.5 10.11% -4.6
Jun 2015 2.35% 24.90% 233.0 247.1 106.3 46.5 11.69% -4.3
Sep 2015 2.46% 24.20% 228.8 243.1 105.3 45.6 10.84% -3.1
Dec 2015 2.55% 24.40% 227.7 242.2 105.8 46.2 7.90% -4.4
Mar 2016 2.62% 25.10% 225.8 240.6 103.7 46.2 9.69% -4.2
Jun 2016 2.68% 23.17% 224.3 239.4 105.2 45.9 8.24% -4.2