A correct exchange rate management for example is certainly an important aspect ofthe external debt's solution. It is true that too high and abrupt devaluations ofthe own currency heavily increase the price of essential import products. But it is also true that the artificially maintained high currency rates keep the prices of non- essential imports too low and often favour a small local elite and/or a relatively small urban population. Too high currency rates have too much boosted unneeded imports for a small part ofthe population and impeded export possibilities on which larger parts ofthe rural population are dependent for income. Correct (a relative concept) exchange rates have to be maintained in order to avoid the negative aspects of an abrupt shock devaluation therapy. There is also the question of capital flight, conspicuous consumption and so-called economic mismanagement. A much advocated recommendation for a long-term solution oftheforeigndebtproblem is a higher priority to rural development. It is true that the great majority of African population is living in rural areas and that these have not received enough attention in economic development building ofthe last decades. So it is correct to attach more importance to development in rural zones, certainly in the areas of food crops, stocking and distribution capacity. But this does not mean that the important role of industry
ABSTRACT. We assess the determinants of Chinese direct investment in Africa compared with those of global FDI. We find that economic size and macroeconomic stability are positively correlated with Chinese and global FDI in Africa. Institutional variables, such as accountability and rule of law, are not significant in either case and the same can be said about FDI-aid complementarities. The presence of oil is a determinant of Chinese FDI but not of global FDI into Africa. Conversely, the openness ofthe economy is a determinant for global FDI but not of Chinese FDI, which appears to favour closed economies possibly due to industrial organizational concerns. While these differences accord with intuition, we find no evidence for the claim that Chinese FDI in Africa is related to non-economic governance in a specific way that differs from global practice. More refined governance indicators should be used to verify whether Chinese and global FDI into Africa remain indistinguishable on this score: we plan to do this in future research.
The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, responded to both sets of proposals by publishing a document which effectively rejected the UK proposals as unworkable and instead set out its own approach for establishing more accessible, equitable and managed asylum systems in Europe. The Commission reiterated that any new approach should aim to enhance international protection rather than shift respon- sibility for it elsewhere, and should be underpinned by ten key principles – including the need to fully respect international legal obligations of Member States, the need to improve the quality of asylum decision mak- ing in Europe, and a recognition that the most effective way of addressing the refugee issue is by reducing the need for refugee movements. The Commission also strongly recom- mended an EU-wide resettlement scheme to enable refugees to travel legally to the EU to access protection and durable solutions.
Second, an examination ofthe uses ofthe bailout funds so far reveals who are the ultimate benefi ciaries ofthe austerity. Recent estimates show that more than 95% of these funds have been used to (re)pay the country’s foreign creditors or for the recapitalization ofthe domestic banking sec- tor. Finally, we discuss some other functions ofthe public debt. Besides its reduction as the eventual goal of austerity, public debt has also acted as the “stick” and “carrot” for its imposition. The provision (or the lack thereof) of liquidity from the European Central Bank (ECB) to the Greek banks us- ing public debt securities as collateral has been repeatedly used by the ECB as a discipline mechanism against deviations from the austerity path. At various stages in the endless negotiations, the promise of a debt restruc- turing has acted as the eventual reward for imposing yet another “diffi cult but necessary” austerity package (as was the situation in early May 2016, when this text was being written).
The south Atlantic, where the vast oil reserves ofthe pre-salt are located, and the Amazonia region, with its borders permeable to drug trafficking, emerge as key priorities in the security agenda of Brazil. Thus, the consolidation ofthe South Atlantic as a Peace Zone (Resolution 41/11 ofthe UN GA of 27-10-1986) away from the conflicts that occur elsewhere in the world and out ofthe collective defence schemes that currently exist, such as NATO, are among the objectives of Brazil’s foreign policy. Due to the need to monitor the Amazonia and its borders with 10 neighbouring states, exchanges in terms of security and military issues as part ofthe South American Defence Council assume increasing importance. Other equally major issues in the agenda of Brazil’s foreign policy are: South-South Cooperation and new Partnerships, such as with several countries in Africa 3 . Indeed, according to the latest report on South-South Cooperation (2010) produced by the Ibero-American General Secretariat (SEGIB) 4 , in 2009 Ibero-American countries participated in 881 Bilateral Horizontal South-South Cooperation projects. The participation of Brazil, along with Mexico and Argentina, exceeded 10%. Brazil’s large investment in Africa is also evident, as attested by the rise in the number of ambassadors in several countries ofthe continent and the allocation of funds for development cooperation. “Nowadays, Brazil can be considered as a new donor country” 5 . Other topics, such as Migration and Regional Integration, also stand out.
There are two opposing views linking openness ofthe economy to FDI flows. The “tariff‐hopping”/“tariff‐jumping” hypothesis posits that high protective barriers stimulates direct investment in the host country as opposed to continuing to service it through exports, because of potential marketing cost savings and transport cost reductions (Krugell, 2005). On the other hand, the more open the economy, the more it would attract the FDI from MNCs seen as different affiliates specializing according to the locational advantages ofthe host country (Blomstrom and Kokko, 1997). The importance ofthe latter is well documented in the empirical literature on the determinants of FDI to Africa (Bhattacharya et al., 1997; Morisset, 2000; Asiedu, 2002a, 2002b; Bende‐Nabende, 2002; Lemi and Asefa, 2003; Onyeiwu and Shrestha, 2004; Yasin, 2005; Dupasquier and Osakwe, 2006; Fedderke and Romm, 2006).
Investment, too, showed marked average expansion in this period (9.3 percent p.a.), by rising credits granted by the National Economic and Social Development Bank (“Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social” – BNDES). A breakdown analysis of investment shows, however, that this growth was largely due to increases in housing construction and automotive purchases (trucks in particular). Neither had as a main driver of manufacturing sector, which posted average annual growth of a mere 2.5 percent. Construction expansion was largely based on the rising income and expanding credit of individuals. The purchase of vehicles, in its turn, was due largely to the rationale of commerce expansion, which in its turn was due far more to sales of imported goods than of domestically produced ones. In addition, the period was marked by ample international liquidity, low international interest rates (and an increasing spread relative to Brazil’s domestic interest rates) and reduced perceived risk on the part of international investors. All of these elements enabled increased foreign capital inflows into the Brazilian economy, which were central to the previously discussed dynamic of appreciation ofthe domestic currency.
Abstract This article estimates a structural macroeconomic model ofthe Brazilian economy, with emphasis on the exchange rate, interest rate, inflation and public debt risk premium. The aim is to assess the effect of different fiscal trajectories on the solvency ofthe public debt and possible episodes of fiscal vulnerability (defined here as a situation where the government’s fiscal precariousness prevents the central bank, in certain contexts, from reducing inflation by raising the basic interest rate). The change in relation to the usual case is the inclusion of a measure ofthe endogenous variation ofthedebt risk premium. To get around the usual problemof endogeneity in estimating a system of structural equations, we use the simulated method of moments (McFadden, 1989). Besides being more flexible than the techniques usually applied in the literature, this method enables stochastic projections under different macroeconomic settings to be obtained. We use alternative fiscal scenarios, associating each one with different likelihoods of fiscal vulnerability generated by the resulting distinct evolutions ofthedebt/GDP ratio.
The coinfection of HIV and hepatitis B virus (HBV) and their vertical transmission constitute a pub- lic health problem in sub-Saharan countries ofAfrica. The objectives of this research are: i) identify the pregnant women that are coinfected by HIV and HBV at Saint Camille Medical Centre; ii) use three antiretroviral drugs (zidovudine, nevirapine and lamivudine) to interrupt the vertical trans- mission of HIV and HBV from infected mothers; and iii) use the PCR technique to diagnose chil- dren who are vertically infected by these viruses in order to offer them an early medical assistance. At Saint Camille Medical Centre, 115 pregnant women, aged from 19 to 41 years, were diagnosed as HIV-positive and, among them, 14 coinfected with HBV. They had at least 32 weeks of amenorrhoea and all of them received the HAART, which contained lamivudine. Two to six months after child- birth, the babies underwent PCR diagnosis for HIV and HBV. The results revealed that, among these mothers, 64.4% were housewives, 36.5% were illiterates, and only 1.7% had a university degree. The rate of vertical transmission of HIV and HBV was 0.0% (0/115) and 21.4% (3/14), respectively. The 3 mothers who transmitted the HBV to their children had all HBsAg, HbeAg, and HBV DNA positive. An antiretroviral therapy that in addition to zidovudine and nevirapine includes lamivudine could, as in the present study, block or reduce the vertical transmission in HIV positive pregnant women who are coinfected with HBV.
This study comprises a panel of 62 countries 1 covering the years 2000-2014. 2 The dependent variable is the ratio of non-performing loans to total (gross) loans. Among the most commonly used definitions for NPLs are those ofthe Basel Committee for Banking Supervision (BCBS), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Institute of International Finance. According to the BCBS definition, “a default occurs when the obligor is 90 days past due on any material credit obligation to the banking group, or is unlikely to pay its credit obligations to the banking group in full, without recourse by the bank to actions such as realizing security” (Basel Committee on Banking Supervision 2006, 100). In its Financial Soundness Indicators Compilation Guide the IMF also states that “loans (and other assets) should be classified as NPLs when (1) payments of principal and interest are past due by three months (90 days) or more, or (2) interest payments equal to three months (90 days) interest or more have been capitalized (re-invested into the principal amount), refinanced, or rolled over (i.e. payment has been delayed by arrangement)” (IMF 2006, 46). The Institute of International Finance has developed a credit classification system, which entails the following five categories: “Standard”, “Watch”, “Substandard”, “Doubtful”, and “Loss loans” (Krueger, 2002). 3 However, it does not provide numerical thresholds for the various categories but rather sets up a universal guideline.
The difference GMM estimator following Arellano and Bond (1998) is designed for panels with many groups and few periods, where the model describes a linear relationship between a dynamic dependent variable and explanatory variables. Furthermore, the estimation allows for time-invariant fixed effects and heteroskedasticity as well as autocorrelation within countries. When compared to standard OLS techniques, the main advantage of difference GMM is that it allows for endogenous as well as predetermined variables in the context of a dynamic model.
Our international setting also allows us to study the impact of country charac- teristics on crowding out effects. We hypothesize that the extent ofthe crowding out effect depends on the institutional features ofthe financial markets. We cap- ture important institutional differences across countries using the relative size and the trading volume ofthe equity markets, the dependence ofthe private sector on bank financing, and the financial openness of countries. Countries with larger and more liquid equity markets might offer their firms better opportunities to switch from debt to equity financing if governments increase their debt levels. Similarly, countries that rely less on bank-based and more on market-based sources of financing might offer firms more flexibility to adjust their sources of financing, resulting in more pro- nounced crowding-out effects. Finally, we expect the crowding out effect to be less prominent in countries that are more open to foreign investors, who help domestic investors absorb government debt supply shocks. Our results indicate that a change in government debt has a stronger impact on corporate debt in countries with rel- atively large and liquid equity markets, in countries where the private sector is less bank dependent, and in financially less open countries.
The paper studies the macroeconomic aspects and influence of FDI on banking sector, foreign external debt on medium and long term, labour market and relevant macro indicators of economic growth. The main conclusion is that the comparison of FDI advantages and disadvantages presupposes a complex methodological approach, particularised on types of activities and effects. The corroboration at local, regional and national levels of favourable and unfavourable effects, as a rule, leads to a net favourable result, yet without eliminating also the existence of some non favourable punctual results.
Due to expansion of internaional relaions, growth of interest of states in at- tracion offoreign capital, appearance of excessive debts and problems con- nected with them, urgency ofthe issue ofthe state foreigndebt signiicantly increased. Theproblemof state foreigndebt is especially sharp in developing countries. Taking into account speciic features of funcioning of economies of these states, it is necessary to develop informaion approaches with the aim of studying macro-economic processes, which could assist in creaion of improved mechanisms of funcioning ofthedebt policy. The goal ofthe aricle is building an informaion technology of study ofthe state foreigndebt, which would allow conduct of a complex analysis ofthe studied problem. The aricle ofers a three-stage informaion technology of study ofthe state foreigndebt, which gives a possibility to analyse and assess the study problem. This aricle also reveals properies, funcions and tasks, which are solve by the informa- ion technology. It gives a detailed descripion of each stage and its noional elements. It forms the structured database for a possibility to carry out an experiment. On the basis ofthe irst stage the aricle builds econometric models, which relect interrelaions between macro-economic factors, which gives an opportunity to forecast, analyse and assess the state foreigndebt. Key words: informaion technology, state foreigndebt, macro-economic in- dicators, study.
I think we can answer this question in the positive: Yes, He can, because He is the most perfect being and His omnipotence is absolutely unlimited. A very important premise underlying the answer to the last question is that the risk is not so great, or even that it is very small. It is so because the nature and mechanism ofthe created world ensure with a very high proba- bility that all purposes intended by God will be attained without his causal action in the processes occurring in the world. The emergence of life in the universe is almost inevitable, because the universe is large and old enough, and biochemical mechanisms are very effective. The emergence of sentient beings was also almost inevitable because of longstanding and countless mutations and adaptations of living organisms to their environment. All this was very probable and hence in a sense necessary (inevitable). The great advantage ofthe non-deterministic world is its own creativity, which is possible because ofthe chance events happening in a way restricted only by the laws of nature. Thus, if one evolutionary path fails another one is opened. Perhaps a mutation suitable for the growth and development of a given species happened by chance and enabled it to survive in hard con- ditions and further develop. Elasticity and redundancy are very typical for the world of chance, but because of these properties, this world has a large number of possibilities and abilities to develop and regenerate after various natural catastrophes (Łukasiewicz 2006).
management through international institutions, regional associations, and even bilateral relations. During the Strategic and Economic Dialogue in July 2009 in Washington, D.C., Chinese and US treasury and foreign affairs officials discussed a broad range of bilateral and global issues and pledged to work together towards softening the current global crisis and heading off future crises in the areas of climate change and environmental degradation. China has worked with the US and other countries to play a more active role in talks over North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, and has moved away from traditional non-intervention approaches with Sudan and Burma. Additionally, it has pushed for a larger role for the G-20 in global governance and greater representation for developing countries in the World Bank and the IMF. 23 This behavior shows consistent support for great