Report of the Strategic Director Children’s Services to the meeting Children’s Services Overview and Scrutiny Committee to be held on 9th December 2015
AL
Subject:
Pupil Place Planning – Update Report
Summary statement:
This report updates the Committee on the Council’s forecasts for the number of main stream school places needed across the District.
Terry Davis
Interim Assistant Director Client Services
Portfolio:
Education, Skills and Culture
Phone: (01274) 437170
E-mail: terry.davis@bradford.gov.uk
Overview & Scrutiny Area:
Children’s Services
1. Summary
1.1 This report updates the Committee on the Council’s forecasts for the number of mainstream School places needed across the District.
2. Background Statutory Duty
Bradford Council has a statutory duty to ensure there are sufficient statutory school age places in the District to meet both present and future demand for school places.
As such, it is the role of the Council to plan, organise and commission places across the District.
The Council seeks to exercise this function in partnership with all its local key stakeholders; Dioceses, governing bodies of schools, head teachers, local communities and other partners such as academies and free schools.
The demand for schools places changes on a regular basis and the Council must, in its planning process, be proactive in ensuring that local demographic trends are understood.
Forecast methodology
Predicting demand for places in both primary and secondary schools across the district is a complex task. Ascertaining where children will go to school requires the analysis of a number of different factors:
• Demographic trends (birth rates, inward and outward migration);
• Parental preferences and choices (selection of faith or independent schools rather than community schools, first/second/third/fourth/fifth choices);
• Schools’ ability to meet additional demand (spare capacity, parental perception/popularity, etc.) and
• Newly approved housing developments (type of housing being developed, target groups, etc.)
The Council collects data on the actual uptake of places in all schools across the District and predicts future demand for primary schools using Heath Authority data.
For secondary schools a simpler percentage calculation from primary schools places data is used. This information is used to predict the future need for school places. Data analysis helps the Council to understand trends and quantify the future demand for school places.
The Council’s pupil places’ forecasts are checked retrospectively and the recent accuracy rates forecasts are as follows:
• 99.7% in the primary schools’ sector
• 99.2% in the secondary schools’ sector.
Planning Areas
Bradford District covers a large area and includes a mixture of rural and urban areas. In order to carry out detailed and accurate pupil forecasts, planning areas have been created which divide the District into smaller areas analysing a more
localised demand for primary school places separately from demand for secondary school places. This is also a DfE requirement and is used by all Councils when completing the annual School Capacity Return.
There are 26 primary school planning areas across the district, each typically made up of between 3 and 10 schools. Planning areas vary in size depending on the rural or urban nature of the area with rural areas generally having larger planning areas.
The size of the planning areas is also dependent on where children live and where they are likely to attend schools. Other factors such as physical constraints and barriers are also taken into account when determining the areas (e.g. major roads which are difficult to cross, adjacent moorland or natural topography).
Secondary school planning areas are based loosely on geographical areas and consist of 8 Secondary School Planning Areas.
Maps of both Primary School Planning Areas and Secondary School Planning areas can be accessed via the Education Organisation Plan which is available on the Council’s website.
3. Report issues
In January 2005, the overall population in the District’s schools and nurseries totalled 79,589. 10 years later, in January 2015, the schools’ population reached 90,292, the equivalent of a 13.4% increase.
This trend is projected to continue over the next 4 years with the number of school places required estimated to 98,055 by 2019. The bulk of this increase will be experienced in the secondary school sector.
Demand for places in Primary Schools
Many Districts in the country have only started to witness pressure on pupil places in the last 2 or 3 years, the Bradford District has experienced a continued demand for additional places for over 9 years.
Table 1: Breakdown by age of children registered with the Health Authority 2006-2015 Age at
31 Aug
Aged 4 Aged 5 Aged 6 Aged 7 Aged 8 Aged 9 Aged 10
Total Aged
4-10 2006 7,339 7,064 7,081 7,185 7,112 7,038 6,828 49,647 2007 7,535 7,356 7,153 7,113 7,294 7,090 7,102 50,643 2008 7,601 7,378 7,321 7,134 7,138 7,193 7,068 50,833 2009 8,169 7,803 7,604 7,430 7,207 7,235 7,275 52,723 2010 8,413 8,195 7,816 7,686 7,510 7,252 7,282 54,154 2011 8,351 8,309 8,115 7,768 7,664 7,436 7,212 54,855 2012 8,524 8,226 8,301 7,986 7,792 7,648 7,504 55,981 2013 8,689 8,607 8,327 8,364 8,121 7,776 7,787 57,671 2014 8,782 8,625 8,540 8,275 8,309 8,041 7,747 58,319
2015 8,475 8,772 8,640 8,526 8,275 8,304 8,030 59,022 Note 1: Ages at 31st August of each year
The number of local children of primary school age (registered with the Health Authority) has, in the period 2006 to 2015, increased by 18.9%.
Not all local children attend local schools and approximately 7% of primary aged children and 15% of secondary aged pupils attend a school outside the Bradford District or are either in an independent school or in non-mainstream education or are educated at home. It is difficult to ascertain whether this will continue as the population is also increasing in other Districts which may mean a reduction in the availability of places in other Council areas.
The Council has over the last few years embarked on an extensive expansion programme across the primary schools’ sector, which has resulted in 46 primary schools increasing their Published Admission Number (PAN) and capacity with a further 4 due to expand from September 2016.
Some primary school places have also been created by secondary schools becoming all through schools and expanding their facilities to deliver primary education. The “through-age” schools operating in Bradford are currently:
• Appleton Academy which includes a 2FE primary school provision
• Bradford Academy which includes a 2FE primary school provision
• Dixons Allerton Academy which includes a 2FE primary school provision
• Bradford Girls Grammar School which includes a 2FE primary school provision, although this was converted from Independent status with existing pupils.
The opening of 2 primary free schools has also assisted in meeting local pressures:
• Dixons Music Academy
• Rainbow School
At the beginning of the 2014/15 academic year, there were 56,008 primary school places across the district. By 2018/19, the latest programme of expansion will see the total primary school capacity increase to 58,154.
The latest predictions, as shown in Graph 1, estimate that the number of primary pupil places required by 2019 will be around 56,233. This would mean that the spare capacity across the primary schools’ estate would only be 3.3%, slightly less than the 5% standard buffer recommended by DfE. It should also be noted that any spare capacity arising from new free schools may not be in areas where there is an increasing demand for places. The Council is however in discussions with the DfE to ensure that if there are to be future free schools then they are in the right areas to help with the demand for pupil places.
Graph 1: Forecast overall demand for school places across Bradford District 2015 to 2019
Demand for places in Secondary Schools
Until recently, there has overall been sufficient secondary school capacity across the District. The Council has through the Targeted Basic Need Programme constructed a new school named Bradford Forster Academy. Construction was completed in summer 2015. The new building will accommodate up to 1,050 pupils aged 11 to 16 (7 FE).
Graph 2: Secondary Schools’ overall capacity across Bradford District 2006 to 2015
As shown in Graph 2, the overall capacity across the secondary school estate, at 2014, reached just under 40,000 places. This number was achieved as four new free schools opened and also by the conversion of Bradford Girls Grammar School from an independent institution to a free school. Subsequently the opening of Forster Academy in the summer 2015 increased the overall secondary schools’
capacity by 1,050 places to 40,915 places.
Despite the increase of secondary school places the number of pupils moving across from primary school to secondary school (Year 7 demand) will, by next academic year, exceed the number of Year 7 places available.
Table 2: Secondary schools forecast at Year 7, 2015 to 2021 LA
Forecast Year 7 demand
Actual Year 7 Places
Surplus / Shortage
Surplus
%
2015/16 6,510 6,740 230 3%
2016/17 6,966 6,747 -219 -3%
2017/18 7,212 6,747 -465 -7%
2018/19 7,227 6,747 -480 -7%
2019/20 7,373 6,747 -626 -9%
2020/21 7,350 6,747 -603 -9%
2021/22 7,289 6,747 -542 -8%
By 2016/17, the shortage of year 7 places will amount to 219 which is equivalent to needing at least an additional 7forms of entry in Schools.
The demand for secondary school places wills more than double the following academic year (2017/18) with the need to provide an additional 9 forms of entry in Schools.
The Council is currently holding a series of meetings with secondary schools in planning areas to discuss the forecast numbers and look at solutions. It is clear however that the expansion of just the current secondary schools will not meet the full predicted demand and the Council has also been in discussion with the Education Funding Agency about the possible creation of new Free Schools in the District run by Multi Academy Trusts. These discussions are at early stage but the key issues for the Council is that any new Free Schools provided are in the right locations to help meet the demand for pupil places and deliver quality education to the young people who will attend the Schools.
It is anticipated that the Council will need one new secondary school however following the introduction of the Academies Act in 2010 Councils no longer open community schools, but, they can support the opening of academies and/or free schools.
The opening of such school(s) would be dependent upon:
• Funding being secured and
• A site large enough to accommodate a secondary school campus being identified.
4. Stakeholder Engagement
When carrying out school expansions, the Council consults widely with stakeholders including schools, elected members, community groups and other interested parties.
This consultation process follows a process which takes account of all representations, irrespective of whether these are or not supportive of the proposals.
5. Options
5.1 That the committee considers the position regarding pupil places provision
6. Contribution to corporate priorities
6.1 The provision of pupil places is a key requirement for the successful operation of Schools and supports the following corporate priorities:
o Children and young people o Safer Communities
o Health and well-being for all.
7. Recommendations
7.1 That the committee notes the report
8. Background documents
8.1 Children’s Services Overview and Scrutiny Committee on 15th April 2014 regarding the School expansion programme projects for the period 2014/15.
8.2 Children’s Services Overview and Scrutiny Committee on 17th March 2015 regarding School Capital Funding Announcements February 2015
8.3 Education Organisation Plan http://www.bradford.gov.uk/NR/rdonlyres/3D824114- 748A-4104-A359-87DCBF4416CD/0/EducationOrganisationPlan.pdf
9. Not for publication documents 9.1 None
10. Appendices 10.1 None
