CHAPTER 3 | ELECTRIC VEHICLES AS LOW CARBON
3.3 CONTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC CARS TO THE MITIGATION OF CO2 EMISSIONS IN THE
CO
2EMISSIONS IN THE CITY OF SAO PAULO
Evaldo Costa
Bacharel em Direito e Ciências Contábeis e Mestre em Gestão Empresarial. Doutorando
em Alterações Climáticas e Políticas de Desenvolvimento sustentável – Universidade
Nova de Lisboa, Portugal [email protected]
Júlia Seixas
CENSE – Centre for Environmental and Sustainability Research Faculdade de
Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Caparica, Portugal
ABSTRACT
Adoption of the electric car to mitigate air pollution and climate change: myth or reality? This study aims to bring out the energy and climate mitigation impacts of mass introduction of electric cars in city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. A working scenario of 10 percent penetration of electric cars replacing gasoline-powered vehicles by 2020 and 20 percent by 2030 was set. The impact on the energy mix and CO2 emissions was based on indicators available for
the city of Sao Paulo. Preliminary results indicate significant energy and environmental benefits to the city. We identified a potential reduction of up to 2030 will be about 11 MtCO2 representing more than 10 percent compared
with the total emissions from the fleet of gasoline-powered cars.
KEYWORDS: Electric Cars; Sao Paulo; Energy Matrix; Electricity; Greenhouse Gas; Vehicle Fleet.
3.3.1 Introduction
Electric cars have been stated as an effective alternative to internal combustion engines due to CO2 emissions mitigation, and energy efficiency, mostly if the power system is supported by renewable sources.
Aiming to identify the impacts of massive introduction of electric cars on mitigation of CO2 emissions as well as energy changes in Sao Paulo, this study examined other related works published in Brazil. We found that our aim is differentiated by being a pioneer in the investigation because i) it focuses on the city of Sao Paulo in contrast with the state of Sao Paulo; ii) it incorporates in the scope of our study the Brazilian Law No.12,715 of September 17, 2012 [1], which provides for the Incentive Program Technology and Densification Innovation Supply Chain Motor Vehicles - INNOVATE- AUTO; and iii) it considers only cars 100 percent electric replacing gasoline cars.
The city of Sao Paulo has 11.8 million inhabitants and is the most populous municipality in Brazil, the American continent and the entire southern hemisphere [2]. With Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of $477 billion [3], Sao Paulo is considered the major financial center of South America and the 10th richest city in the world [4].
Sao Paulo accounts for the largest vehicle fleet in the country: in December 2012, the total fleet was set at 4.3 million of vehicles, of which cars represented 73.2 percent [5]. With more than 32,000 taxis, the city meets the third largest fleet of taxis in Latin America. In the year 2011, the transport sector
accounted for emissions of about 11.8 million tons of CO2 [6] thereby contributing to almost 80 percent of total emissions from energy sector (also including power, industry and fugitive emissions) in the city [7]. Therefore, there is the need and the opportunity to consider electric cars as a major driver change of the city mobility aiming to reduce energy consumption and CO2 emissions. The goal of this paper is to assess whether a scenario of battery electric vehicles (BEV) substituting gasoline-power cars in the city of Sao Paulo in the medium term (2020 and 2030) could be feasible and to estimate its impact in energy consumption and in CO2 emissions.
A. Current fleet of cars, energy consumption and CO2 emissions
The vehicle fleet consists of cars, light commercial vehicles, motorcycles, light trucks, medium, heavy and semi-heavy, urban and highway bus. The present study focuses on the fleet of gasoline-powered Otto automobiles for passengers’ mobility with seating for up to eight occupants, including the driver. The fleet of cars registered in 2012 in Sao Paulo was 3.2 million units, representing 73.2 percent of the total fleet of the most populated city in Brazil, as shown in Table 3.15 [5].
Table 3.15 – Estimated Current Fleet In Sao Paulo(SP) (2012) Category Fuel Fleet State SP Fleet City SP
Gasoline 4,173,008 1,501,375
Cars Ethanol 406,215 116,773
Flex 4,878,146 1,607,066
Sub-total 9,458,369 3,225,214
Share of total cars Over total fleet 73,20% Truck, bus,
motorcycle 4,886,401 1,178,469
Total Fleet 14,344,770 4,403,683 Data source: [5].
Almost half (46.5 percent) of the car fleet in the city Sao Paulo consists of vehicles powered by gasoline and 53.5 percent for flex (which can run both gasoline and alcohol), as shown in Table 3.15. In 2011, the fleet of vehicles in Sao Paulo reported an average age of 8 years [5] and in the case of cars the average run of 12,000 kilometers year. Around 80 percent of the fleet is ten years or less of use in 2012.
In 2011, the fleet of Sao Paulo consumed 2,061 m3 of gasoline and 2,170 m3 of ethanol, thus adding around 4,231 m3, compared to 2,500 m3 in 2003, which represents an increase of both fuels of about 67.3 percent. Focusing on gasoline consumption, statistics show an increase of 17 percent in that period, as shown in table 3.16 [6].
According to the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP), Brazil spent US$4.4 billion on gasoline imports in the triennium 2010/2012. Incidentally, in 2012, the country
consumption grows rampant, and keeps refining the nearly stagnant [8].
Table 3.16 –Consumption Of Gasoline And Ethanol In Sao Paulo
Year /
103m3 Gasoline A Ethanol A* Ethanol H**
2003 1,711 514 304 2004 1,647 549 456 2005 1,699 566 511 2006 1,735 467 918 2007 1,726 545 1,420 2008 1,655 555 1,763 2009 1,567 522 2,185 2010 1,708 569 2,018 2011 2,061 687 1,483
* Anhydrous ** Hydrous - Source: [8].
In this context, Sao Paulo adopted public measures, such as the Law 14,933/09 which established targets for reducing GHG emissions in the order of 30 percent in 2012 compared with 2003 [9], but the goal was not achieved and instead of cutting emissions, the city of Sao Paulo increased the release of greenhouse gases in the period (15,110 Gg of CO2e in 2003 and 16,430 in 2011). It should be underlined that the increase of emissions was not higher due to the share of ethanol in fuel composition used in the fleet of city vehicles [6].
B. Vision for the development of electric cars in Sao Paulo
The Brazilian government has not regulated the manufacture and sales of electric vehicles (BEVs) in the country. However, there are indications that this fact should not take much time to change. The need to reduce fossil fuel consumption and air pollution; the encouraging results from mass introduction of BEVs in other regions such as the United States and Norway; the robust investment from global automakers, such as BMW, Renault-Nissan Alliance and other incipient like Tesla, and the recent decision by China to adopt massively BEVs may influence the decision of the Brazilian government in favor of the electric vehicle adoption.
Moreover, considering the sales of the BEV models, 10,064 units were sold in the United States in 2011 against 52,835 in 2012 and 96,702 in 2013, which illustrate a very high increasing growth rate [10]. Therefore, scenarios for the penetration of BEV models in a city like Sao Paulo appear very likely, and should be considered as low carbon options, due to the low emission factor of the electricity production, as presented in the next section.
C. Electricity production in Brazil
The array of Brazilian electricity generation is 85 percent renewable sources in 2012, as shown in Figure 3.10, which is quite favorable to supply BEVs, as a low carbon option. For the year 2009, the emission factor of power production was set at 25kgCO2/MWh [11].
During the last decades, renewable sources are becoming increasingly prevalent in the electricity consumption mix in the city of Sao Paulo. In 2010, renewables sources represented more than 55 percent of the total electric composition, as shown in Figure 3.11 [12].
Data source: [11].
Figure 3.10 – Brazilian electricity supply by sources in 2012
Data source: [12].
Figure 3.11 – Share of electricity supply in Sao Paulo in 2010
3.3.2 Methodology
This study applies to the city of Sao Paulo. We assume a very conservative perspective to estimate the growth rate of the car market of 0.5 percent per year for the period 2014 to 2030. This indicator is well below the national average growth occurred between 2003 and 2013, when the average annual growth was 14.7 percent [13]. However, after 2010, the sales have been falling a lot, culminating in the fall of 0,3 percent from 2012 to 2013 [13].
Moreover, we consider the Brazilian market has reached a first stage of ripening, and fleets of cars from major urban centers will grow at more modest rates, compared to the national growth.
testing electric taxis and fleets along with public and private companies [14]. In Table 3.17, the specific consumption in kWh for each car model we use in our calculations is presented [15].
Table 3.17 – Specific Electricity Consumption And Autonomy
Electric Vehicle Capacity Autonomy
BMW i3 18.8 kWh 190 km
Leaf 23 kWh 140 km
Ford Focus 23 kWh 180 km
Data source: [15].
We consider the selected models will replace gasoline-powered cars, due to the following reasons: these types of cars represent almost 50 percent circulating in of the city of Sao Paulo; the country is importing this type of fuel; and we intend to achieve reductions of CO2 emissions arising from fossil fuel combustion.
We assume the following BEV penetration scenario in the city mobility: 10 percent of gasoline- powered vehicles will be substituted by BEV by 2020 and 20 percent by 2030; the BEV will run the annual average of 12,000 kilometers, compatible with the internal combustion models, taken as short distances within the city.
Surplus electricity consumption and respective emissions were considered. Emissions from the manufacture of cars were not taken into account, because we may consider approximately no significant differences between the production of electric and internal combustion model.
We consider the following assumptions for projection of gasoline consumer, from the incentives under the standards INNOVATE-AUTO [16]:
• 2017 to 2020: 70 percent of the fleet get 13.6 percent reduction in gasoline consumption; • 2017 to 2020: 20 percent of the fleet will get a reduction of 25.5 percent;
• 2021 to 2030: 70 percent of the fleet get 25.5 percent reduction in gasoline consumption.
For emission we consider the following assumptions (standards INNOVATE-AUTO):
• 2017 to 2020: 70 percent of the fleet get 17 percent reduction in emission; • 2017 to 2020: 20 percent of the fleet get 20 percent reduction in emission; • 2021 to 2030: 70 percent of the fleet get 20 percent reduction in emission.
The fact this study was conducted in the city of Sao Paulo where vehicular inspection (providing real vehicle data), helped to reduce the margins of the study bug.
Nevertheless, we recognize several uncertainty sources in our calculations, namely: (i) we assume the empirical CO2 emission factor of the gasoline-powered cars and electricity production remain constant up to 2030; (ii) we estimate at 7 percent the error regarding fuel consumption, in relation to the cases where the driver letting in another site, and rotates in the city of Sao Paulo.
Therefore, these results should be seen as preliminary and approximate, although general trends could be approached with reasonable significance.
3.3.3 Results
The projections of the gasoline fleet in the city of Sao Paulo will account for approximately 1.7 million cars in 2020 and around 1.8 million in 2030. According to our penetration scenario, we consider 170 thousand units of BEV by 2020 (10 percent) and 360 thousand (20 percent) by 2030.
A. Impacts on energy consumption
We estimate that gasoline consumption accumulated from 2010 to 2020 will be 21.1 billion liters and 43.3 billion up to 2030. Considering INOVAR-AUTO policy and electric car penetration, the accumulated reduction in the same periods will be 1.5 billion liters (7.0 percent) and about 5.7 billion liters (13.1 percent) respectively, as shown Table 3.18.
Table 3.18 –Gasoline Consumption From 2015 to 2030
2015 2020 2030
Total gasoline consumption
(103m3) 10,423 21,113 43,310
Cons gas with reduction INOVAR+EV (103m3) 10,423 19,645 37,658 Total gasoline reduction (103m3) 0 1,468 5,652 Total Gasoline reduction (%) 0 7.0% 13.1%
The increase of electricity consumption with the adoption of electric cars in the fleet would be 268 MWh in the year 2020, and 536 MWh in 2030, negligible values representing less than 0.01 percent of consumption total of Sao Paulo in 2030.
B. Impacts on CO2 emissions
Cumulative CO2 emissions due to gasoline consumption in cars in the city of Sao Paulo for the period 2010 up to 2020 is estimated at 50.0 MtCO2 and 100.6 MtCO2 up to 2030. By 2030, the CO2 emissions from gasoline consumption represents about 40 percent of total fleet of city of Sao Paulo.
Considering BEV introduction and INOVAR-AUTO policy, emissions will be reduced around 3.5 MtCO2 in the period 2010 to 2020, and 11.0 MtCO2 to 2030, therefore quite significant as shown in Table 3.19.
Table 3.19 –Reduction in CO2 Emission In 2020 And 2030
2010 2015 2020 2030
CO2 emissions due to the electricity consumption would be 6.5 tCO2 in the year 2020, and 13.1 tCO2 in the year 2030, which are negligible values when compared with the amount of CO2 emissions from the internal engines fleet, justified by the very low CO2 emission factor from power production, as refereed before.
C. Impacts on energy costs
The costs breakdown revealed the city of Sao Paulo would have costs increase with electricity consumption amounting to 28 thousand US dollars in 2020 to around 57 thousand in 2030. However, gasoline consumption savings totals around US$1.6 billion in 2020 and US$6.2 billion in 2030, as revealed in Table 3.20, based on date from [8, 17, 18].
Table 3.20 –Economic Gains For Sao Paulo For 2020 And 2030 Increase / Decrease of energy
consumption 2020 2030
Increase of electricity costs
(106US$) 0,028 0,057
Decrease of gasoline costs
(106US$) 1.6 6.3
Economic Gains (106US$) 1.6 6.2
3.3.4 Conclusion
The study revealed that a reduction of about 11.0 MtCO2 by 2030 is achievable in the city of Sao Paulo with the replacement of 20 percent of gasoline cars with battery electric cars, with negligible increase of CO2 emissions from electricity consumption. This scenario will imply a reduction of about 7 percent of gasoline consumption in 2020 and 13 percent by 2030. Therefore, we are able to conclude that the city has much to gain from the introduction of electric cars, either from energy, environmental and economic point of view.
Sao Paulo would have costs savings in 2030 of approximately 6.2 billion American Dollars with the introduction of electric cars as assessed with the scenarios in this study.
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