Estará a matriz energética mundial a mudar a ritmos adequados? As energias renováveis e as tecnologias não-poluentes estão a ganhar a competição económica e de rentabilidade contra as energias fósseis? Qual a verdadeira força e impacto global dos
atores que negam a influência humana na aceleração das mudanças climáticas?
Are energy consumption patterns changing fast enough to save the Planet? Are renewables and non-pollutant technologies winning the cost-effectiveness competition against fossil fuels? How effective and influential are the players and interests that deny
human responsibility on climate change accelerations?
B
Europe and Africa Director, World Resources Institute, The Hague & Addis Ababa
Diretora Europa e África, World Resources Institute, Haia & Adis Abeba
Kitty van der Heijden
S P E A K E R
efore I begin, does anybody in this room know the World Resources Institute (WRI)? WRI is an independent think tank working at the intersection be- tween environment and development issues. We are 800 experts working across the globe with offices in China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey, Europe and Africa, trying to make change happen on these urgent issues. I’ve been asked to talk about en- ergy transition in particular, because that will determine wheth- er we will be able to keep catastrophic climate change away.
I’m Dutch and we have a reputation for being honest to the point of being rude. So, let me begin with the conclusion.
And the conclusion is that science knows that we are not mak- ing change fast enough, we are ruining the planet not just now, but for the next generations, and for poor and vulnerable peo- ple across this world. But it is policy makers, private sector and us as individual consumers that are still not doing enough.
In my lifetime, emissions have reasoned six-fold and they show, unfortunately, no signs of abating. After a few years of being flat, hoping that we were decarbonising our economy, last year the increase of carbon emissions was 2%. We are now 145%
above pre-industrial emission levels. Last year was the warmest non-El Niño year on record, and the past 5 years have been the
10 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2
thDifference (°C) from the 20 century averageCarbon Dioxide Emissions - Billion Tons 0 1980
2017: Hottest non-El Niño year on record
1990 Source: NOAA
2000 2010 2017
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
1900
CO2 Emissions up six-fold in my lifetime
1920 Source: US DOE, 2010; EU, 2012
1940 1960 1980 2000
We had 200 years to use half of the carbon budget which is emission levels to keep temperature rise below 1.5 or 2 de- grees, and if we do not decarbonize our economy in the next 20 years we will not be able to keep catastrophic climate change away. What that means is that in 2020, that’s less than 1,000 days away, global emission levels will have to peak, and the en- ergy sector will have to play a major role in that. I know that it won’t be happening by 2020, but the longer we wait, the deeper the curve of emission decreases must be. This is the reality, this is what science tells us: we are in a hurry or we simply won’t be able to make it.
While we may be safe and secure in our energy supplies, people in countries where I live and work like Ethiopia are still a long way away from where we are. More than a billion peo- ple in developing countries have no access to energy – most of them (more than 95%) live in Africa and Southeast Asia. And if we continue the way we are, we still have 675 million people without access to energy in 2030. That is what we promised in the sustainable development goals as a world community.
I’ll give six reasons why I still believe we are making the change happen, but we might not be going fast enough.
First of all, the trends about coal. You all know that coal is the most carbon intensive source of energy, and coal is actually dropping. It dropped 2% in 2016 and compared to 2014 this is more than 4% decrease in demand, so we are going in the right direction, but like I said: it’s just not fast enough. Every major economy in the world is reducing coal dependency except In- dia, and even China, the largest coal consumer by far, has now reduced coal for the third year in a row. And no matter what the President of the United States says, coal has peaked and is now going out fashion, simply because we have better and cheaper options. Renewables are here, and they will stay.
Good news number two: renewable energy is going up. In- vestment in renewable energy has doubled compared to fossil fuel investments. And that is not just for last year, that’s for five years in a row that we invest double in renewables compared to what Regarding the demand for energy, which is one of the
largest parts of global CO2 emissions, are we seeing that step change that we need to see? Energy demand in Europe is down, and energy demand in the United States and in Japan is also in the right direction. But look at Latin America, Middle East, South East Asia, Africa, and particularly China and India. Are we changing energy demand, are we getting there in time? No, we’re not.
50 40 30 20 10 0
CO2 emissions (GT peryear)* Peak late 20sPeak in 2020
Peak today
* Mitigation only
1990
Global CO2 emissions need to decline rapidly
2000 Source: Carbon Crunch
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Historical Data
1200 900 600 300 0 -300
Mtoe European Union
Trends: energy demand, per region, 2014-2040
United States
Source: OECD/IEA 2016
Japan Latin America IndiaMiddle East Southeast Asia
Energy use worldwide grows by one third to 2040, driven by Asia;
EU energy demand declines by 15% over the period
China
Africa
vise upwards where we will end up with renewable energy. They had to revise upwards five fault since 2000 projections on wind energy and no less than 14 fault projections on solar PV installa- tion. And even Green Peace underestimated just how fast renew- able energy deployment is going. But make no mistake about it: it is not because people want to stabilise the climate, it is because it is becoming cost-competitive. By 2025 or 2030, renewable and particularly solar will simply be cheaper than coal, and this means it makes good economic sense to make that change happen.
we invest in fossil fuels as a world community. And this is not be- cause people want to stabilize the climate; that may be great, but they are doing that because the levelized cost of energy for wind and solar is decreasing. From the climate summit in Copenhagen to now, prices of solar panels have come down 86%. Solar PV and wind PV are simple becoming cheaper and more cost-competitive than any other energy source. And that’s why even in agencies like the International Energy Agency, one of the more conservative think tanks for energy has had to consistently over the years re- Major LCOE decreases for wind and solar PV Generation
Unsubsidized Levelized Cost of Energy – Wind and Solar PV (Historical)
Over the last eight years, wind and solar PV have become increasingly cost-competitive with conventional generation technologies, on an unsubsidized basis, in light of material declines in the pricing of system components (e.g., panels, inverters, racking, turbines, etc.) and dramatic improvements in efficiency, among other factors
$250 200 150 100 50 0
LCOE M/Wh Wind Eight-year percentage decrease; 67%
(1)
2009
$169
$101
$148
$99
$92
$50
$95
$48
$95
$45
$81
$37
$77
$32
$62
$32
$60
$30
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Lazard's LCOE Analysis, v.11., Nov. 2017,
htttps://www.lazard.com/media/450337/lazard-levelized-cost-of-energy-version-110.pdf
$450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
LCOE M/Wh
Utility-Scale Solar Eight-year percentage decrease; 86%
(1)
2009
$394
$323 $261
$148
$166$186
$204
$149
$101
$149
$204
$149
$91
$104
$177
$126
$72
$82
$193
$109
$58
$170
$193
$88
$49 $46
$61 $53
$194
$85
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$342
$226$266
$270
Experts, Policy Makers, Investors continue to underestimete future renewable energy potential WIND
4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
WEO 2002 WEO 2004 WEO 2006 WEO 2008 WEO 2009 WEO 2010 WEO 2011 WEO 2012 WEO 2013 WEO 2014 WEO 2015 Actual BNEF forecast
Revised up 5-fold since 2000
4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Revised up 14-fold since 2000
Currently, we have about a 1,000 gigawatt of renewable energy in the world. Where is that? It’s not where we live.
It’s in China where we see massive deployment in renewable energy, that’s where the new green economy is being estab- lished, that’s where innovation is happening, where patterns are growing, where employment is growing.
In Europe, we are slow because we haven’t established grid infrastructure, but the scenario in the United Kingdom is a good example of what is happening. In 2012, 42% of electricity was generated from coal and in 2017, 7% of electricity is from coal. If that is not a revolution in the making in just 5 years’ time, I don’t know what it is. This is shifting the balance towards re- newables, which increased from 10% to 23% in 5 years, and that is not going to stop because the UK together with others aim at getting out of coal by 2025. More 20 countries, including UK, Canada, France, Finland, and Mexico, are part of the “Powering Past Coal Alliance” which also brings together businesses and civil society organizations working to accelerate clean growth and achieving the rapid phase-out of traditional coal power.
In the world, while at present in we may have only 5% of renewable energy, by 2040 the expectation is that that will be well over 1/3.
Good news number 3: if you don’t care about climate or you don’t care about innovation and growing your economy in a sustainable way, maybe you care about employment. Clean energy is simply a very good employment sector. Solar and wind have doubled their employment since 2012 and in China renewable energy employs 35% more people than gas and oil combined. So, this is a very smart investment as a politician if you want to keep your economy growing. And while oil and gas are shading employment, we currently have about 10 million people employed in renewable energy and the expectation is that it will grow to 25 million in the next 10 years.
1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
300 250 200 150 100
50 0
Gigawatts Gigawatts
World Total
Wind Solar-PV Bio-Power Ocean, CSP
and Geothermical power
China United States
Germany Japan India Italy
Renewable Power Capacities in the world, BRICS, EU-2018 and Top-6 countries, 2016
BRICS
Source: REN21, Renewables 2017 Global Status Report
EU-28
921 258
145 98
51 46
33
333 300
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Things are changing… also in Europe
United Kingdom electricity generation by fuel (2012-2017) billion kilowatthours
7%
10%
25%
33%
42% 40% 45%
46%
31%
30%
27% 26% 23% 23% 24%
20%
20% 21% 16% 21% 20% 23%
10% 13%
Wind/solar
oil/other Renewables
hydro nuclear
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on Digest of U.K. Energy Statistics
and National Statistics: Energy Trends
Note: 2017 values are estimates based on data through September
coal
biomass natural gas
Good news number 4: there is a revolution going on in the transport sector, which is so oil-dependent. They’re going elec- tric, and while we’re starting from a very small base, the shift is going very fast. It’s happening not just because of climate change, but because the industry itself is seeing that there are chances in this new green automobile sector. General Motors has promised that by 2023 they will put out 20 new models that are electric, and in Volvo by 2019 all cars will be either hy- brid or electric. This is an unstoppable revolution in the trans- port sector that will reduce dependency on oil, gas, and fossil fuels.
It’s not just the industry, it is happening at country level.
In Norway, by 2025 only hybrid or electric cars are allowed on the road; in the Netherlands, 0 emission cars will be mandatory by 2023. Nevertheless, there are still major governments like in Germany, China and India that have said that they want to get on this bandwagon, help on the change, get into that in- novation, but someone like Merkel has still said “I don’t know when”.
Good news number 5: Carbon pricing goes global, and this is a silent revolution. You will see electric vehicles, you will be able to purchase green power, but what you don’t see is that carbon pricing has long gone global. We now have more than 40 national jurisdictions that have a sort of carbon pricing, and 20 local jurisdictions - states, cities, regions - that have either emissions trading, carbon trade systems or carbon pricing.
Currently, 7 of the 10 major economies of the world now have a form of carbon pricing. We still don’t have the carbon price needed to shift pollution and to make sure that companies pay up for social and environmental externalities, but it is an un- stoppable revolution.
Jobs in Renewable Energy in 2016
= 50,000 jobs 8.3 million + 1.5 million
World Total: 9.8 million jobs
Wind power
Solar Energy(solar PV, CSP, solar heating/cooling) Hydropower(large scale) Geothermal
Bioenergy (biomass, biofuels, biogas)
Hydropower(small scale) Source: IRENA (2017)
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
5,000
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
EV sales are up (China and USA lead the way)
Rest of world Germany Netherlands
China Sweden Norway
Japan France
Canada United Kingdom
United States
Source: ICCT (2017)
Good news number 6: another revolution is about subsi- dies from the public sector. There have traditionally been mas- sive subsidies to the fossil fuel industries. In recent years – when we knew that climate change was real and we knew we are almost losing the window to keep temperature rise below 2 degrees - fossil fuel subsidies went up. Now we are seeing a gradual decline, and also that renewable energy subsidies are going up. If we could eliminate fossil fuel subsidies, we could reduce global emissions by 13%. Just by stopping to subsidise the wrong thing! In past years, 50 countries have started to reform their fossil fuel subsidies. Again, this in an unstoppable train, and it’s happening across the globe even if you don’t hear about it.
While I started off with pessimism, I want to stress that the renewable energy transition is not just desirable but achievable, and beyond all it is unstoppable. By 2040 the expec- tation is that 1/3 of vehicles will be electric, 1/3 of power will be solar, wind, or other renewables, and we will have improved energy efficiency by 1/3. But even that is not going to get us where we need to be.
Good news 5: Carbon pricing goes global
ETS implemented or scheduled
for implementation ETS and carbon tax implemented or scheduled
Carbon tax implemented or scheduled
for implementation ETS implemented or scheduled, tax
under consideration
ETS or carbon tax under consideration Carbon tax implemented or scheduled, ETS under consideration
Source: The World Bank, Carbon Pricing Watch (2016)
NEW ZEALAND BRITISH
COLUMBIA WASHINGTON OREGON CALIFORNIA
MEXICO
CHILE
BRAZIL RIO DE JANEIRO SÃO PAULO RGGI
ALBERTA MANITOBA ONTARIO
QUÉBEC ICELAND
EU
TURKEY
UKRAINE KAZAKHSTAN
CHINA
THAILAND
JAPAN
SOUTH AFRICA
REPUBLIC OF KOREA
PORTUGAL IRELAND
SWEDEN
FRANCE
SWITZERLAND SLOVENIA
ESTONIA FINLAND
LATVIA UK
POLAND NORWAY
DENMARK
KYOTO BEIJING
TIANJIN HUBEI
SHANGHAI CHONG-
QING
SHENZHEN TAIWAN GUANGDONG
TOKYO SAITAMA REPUBLIC OF KOREA CANADA
AUSTRALIA
50 countries have implemented fossil fuel subsidy reform in recent years
Good news 6: Stop subsidizing the wrong thing Fossil fuels vs. renewable energy
600 500 400 300 200 100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Renewables Fossil fuels
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2016
Source: IISD (2017). A Guidebook to Reviews of Fossil Fuel Subsidies.
Morocco: eliminated gasoline and fuel subsidies in 2014;
significantly reduced diesel subsidies
Mexico: gradually raised gasoline and diesel prices throughout 2013 and 2014
to reach international levels Ghana: abolished gasoline and diesel subsidies in July 2014
Indonesia: eliminated gasoline and reduced diesel subsidies in January 2015; also reformed LPG and electricity pricing Egypt: cut fuel subsidies
by 1/3 in 2014; aims to eliminate them by 2020
India: deregulation of diesel prices underway
billion dollars
I want to highlight four accelerators that will drive this transition faster tomorrow.
The first is water. The power sector is a very large con- sumer of a very scarce resource that is called fresh water: 20%
of global fresh water goes to the energy sector. If we look at India and China, the areas with water stress – in other words, where demand outstrips supply – are increasing. Already 1 in 5 thermal power plants is facing stress because there isn’t enough water to cool the plants. A country like India last year lost 13 terawatt hours of energy, not because there were ma- jor upheavals, but because there wasn’t enough water to cool their plants. The next picture is the forecast for 2025, when half of the power plants will not have enough water. Over 50%
of new proposed coal power generation in China is in areas of high or extremely high water stress; maybe not a wise invest- ment. Water scarcity is real, and it is going to drive change irre- spective of climate change.
19% of power plant design capacity in this region is located in areas of water stress concern Baseline Water Stress and Power Plants
Hydro, Nuclear & Thermal Power Plants and Baseline Water Stress (Water withdrawal ratio)
Power plant design capacity (MW) Hydro
Plant
Nuclear/
Thermal Plant 0-25
25-500 500-7500
Source: Water Stress: The Coca-Cola Company Power Plant Location: Carbon Monitoring for Action (CARMA) and ISciences L.L.C.;
Power Plant Attributes: Plats, a division of the McGraw Companies, Inc.
Low stress (<10%) No data / Out of area
Moderate stress (10-20%) Arid & Low water use
Medium-high stress (20-40%) Ocean or inland water
High stress (40-80%) Rivers and streams
Extremely high stress (>80%)
The second accelerator comes from us, the individual consumers, the citizens across the world: air pollution, which comes from diesel driven trucks, from gasoline cars, from coal fired plants. It is the fifth leading cause of death in India and it is the single largest cause of social agitation around the world.
China is not changing because they care about global climate stability, they are changing because they are fearing societal upheaval. We are not doing enough in none of the major cities in the world.
Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England and Chair of the financial sector reform in the G20, stated that “Shifts in our climate bring potentially profound implications for in- surers, financial stability and the economy.” He is not an ac- tivist, and he stresses that climate change will undermine our growth, our investments, our lives and our livelihood and if we do not change. He set up a Task Force on Climate-related Fi- nancial Disclosures (TCFD). Are we sure about where we are investing our money, and what do we get back for our buck in the long run, or do we have a carbon bubble? Mike Bloomberg created the Bloomberg’s Task Force on Climate-related Finan- cial Disclosures, to disclosure of the carbon risks in investment portfolios. Do you have stocks in fossil fuel companies, and are they investing in green infrastructure? Do you know where your money is being spent? So, investors are already changing, and the clear majority of world’s biggest investors are acting on climate change now.
When horse carriage driven carts were faced with com- petitions from cars in the previous century, they said: we are 55% of current power plant design capacity would see water
stress grow 2 to 8 times worse by 2025
Change in Water Stress by 2025 and Power Plants (IPCC Scenario A1B)
Hydro, Nuclear & Thermal Power Plants and long term change in water stress (2025)
Power plant design capacity (MW)
Exceptionally less stressed
Near normal conditions
Extremely more stressed Extremely less stressed
Moderately more stressed
Wetter bur still Extremely high stress Significantly less stressed
Severely more stressed
Uncertainty in magnitude Drier but still low stress Moderately less stressed
Extremely more stressed
Uncertainty in direction Ocean or inland water No data / Out of area Hydro
Plant
Nuclear/
Thermal Plant 0-25
25-500 500-7500
0-25 25-500 500-7500
Source: Water Stress: The Coca-Cola Company; Power Plant Location: Carbon Monitoring for Action (CARMA) and ISciences L.L.C.;
Power Plant Attributes: Plats, a division of the McGraw Companies, Inc.
Rivers and streams
300 250 200 150 100 50 0
None of the world’s top 50 cities by population meet WHO air quality standards
Particulate matter per m3 for top 50 cities – higher particulate matter means worse air quality
North America
Middle East & North Africa East Asia & Pacific South Asia Latin America Europe & Central Asia WHO air quality standard PM10 <20 per m3
Source: World Health Organisation: http://apps.who.int/
gho/data/node.wrapper.ENVHEALTH3
New York Chicago Sao Paulo Bogota Lima Essen Istambul Kinshasa Tehran Lagos Shangai Guanghzou Tianjin Chengdu Chongqung Hong Kong Osaka Manila Taipei Ho Chi Min City Delhi Calcutta Bengaluru Ahmedabad Karachi