The evolution of international output differences (1960-2000): From factors to productivity

(1)

❊♥s❛✐♦s ❊❝♦♥ô♠✐❝♦s

❊s❝♦❧❛ ❞❡

Pós✲●r❛❞✉❛çã♦

❡♠ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❛

❞❛ ❋✉♥❞❛çã♦

●❡t✉❧✐♦ ❱❛r❣❛s

◆◦ ✺✹✽ ■❙❙◆ ✵✶✵✹✲✽✾✶✵

❚❤❡ ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥t❡r♥❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ♦✉t♣✉t ❞✐✛❡r✲

❡♥❝❡s ✭✶✾✻✵✲✷✵✵✵✮✿ ❋r♦♠ ❢❛❝t♦rs t♦ ♣r♦❞✉❝✲

t✐✈✐t②

❋❡r♥❛♥❞♦ ❆✳ ❱❡❧♦s♦✱ P❡❞r♦ ❈❛✈❛❧❝❛♥t✐ ●♦♠❡s ❋❡rr❡✐r❛✱ ❙❛♠✉❡❧ ❞❡ ❆❜r❡✉ P❡s✲ s♦❛

❏✉♥❤♦ ❞❡ ✷✵✵✹

(2)

❖s ❛rt✐❣♦s ♣✉❜❧✐❝❛❞♦s sã♦ ❞❡ ✐♥t❡✐r❛ r❡s♣♦♥s❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡ ❞❡ s❡✉s ❛✉t♦r❡s✳ ❆s

♦♣✐♥✐õ❡s ♥❡❧❡s ❡♠✐t✐❞❛s ♥ã♦ ❡①♣r✐♠❡♠✱ ♥❡❝❡ss❛r✐❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ♦ ♣♦♥t♦ ❞❡ ✈✐st❛ ❞❛

❋✉♥❞❛çã♦ ●❡t✉❧✐♦ ❱❛r❣❛s✳

❊❙❈❖▲❆ ❉❊ PÓ❙✲●❘❆❉❯❆➬➹❖ ❊▼ ❊❈❖◆❖▼■❆ ❉✐r❡t♦r ●❡r❛❧✿ ❘❡♥❛t♦ ❋r❛❣❡❧❧✐ ❈❛r❞♦s♦

❉✐r❡t♦r ❞❡ ❊♥s✐♥♦✿ ▲✉✐s ❍❡♥r✐q✉❡ ❇❡rt♦❧✐♥♦ ❇r❛✐❞♦ ❉✐r❡t♦r ❞❡ P❡sq✉✐s❛✿ ❏♦ã♦ ❱✐❝t♦r ■ss❧❡r

❉✐r❡t♦r ❞❡ P✉❜❧✐❝❛çõ❡s ❈✐❡♥tí✜❝❛s✿ ❘✐❝❛r❞♦ ❞❡ ❖❧✐✈❡✐r❛ ❈❛✈❛❧❝❛♥t✐

❆✳ ❱❡❧♦s♦✱ ❋❡r♥❛♥❞♦

❚❤❡ ❡✈♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥t❡r♥❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ♦✉t♣✉t ❞✐❢❢❡r❡♥❝❡s

✭✶✾✻✵✲✷✵✵✵✮✿ ❋r♦♠ ❢❛❝t♦rs t♦ ♣r♦❞✉❝t✐✈✐t②✴ ❋❡r♥❛♥❞♦ ❆✳ ❱❡❧♦s♦✱ P❡❞r♦ ❈❛✈❛❧❝❛♥t✐ ●♦♠❡s ❋❡rr❡✐r❛✱ ❙❛♠✉❡❧ ❞❡ ❆❜r❡✉ P❡ss♦❛ ✕ ❘✐♦ ❞❡ ❏❛♥❡✐r♦ ✿ ❋●❱✱❊P●❊✱ ✷✵✶✵

✭❊♥s❛✐♦s ❊❝♦♥ô♠✐❝♦s❀ ✺✹✽✮

■♥❝❧✉✐ ❜✐❜❧✐♦❣r❛❢✐❛✳

(3)

! "

#

∗

! "

$

!% & %'

†

(

" )*

!

+

!% & %'

" ), '

" "

*

&-.

.

/

0 1 " 0 2 "

2 3 0 # " , 2

45 " " " 2

" " " # 2 " * #

# , # " " # " 2

" 6 7 # ", 0 2 "

1 2 " " #

1 " *# # 0 " * " " # 2

0 2 0 , ) 0 0 2 "6 0 6 # "

6 1 " *# " #,

2 3 2 " 2 3 # 0 ,

1 6 0 2 3 8,(, " " 99 2 3

80 " 6 " 6 " 2 ! 0 ,

8 " " 0 2 3 " " *

*7 0 2 6

∗ ₃ _{2 "0} _: _{$;!< = >} _{" !- ; ?,}

†_$ _{" 0} _{, % "} ₍ ₆ _{" @A %} _{' 0 6 !} _{" =} ₀ ₆

46 - " . 6 -.6 59 6 = > , "" 6 #6 B 0 ,* 6

(4)

2 3 0 # * 0 0 2

1 , ( " " 2 3 *

" " #6 0 " " , # 6 2 " 6 ,0,6

C 3 26 - " D " C 3 2 5 " "

" * 3 " , - *#

E 2 " - " 0 > $ 4 6 ! F 6 G . " # "

H 6 0 6 2 6 * " 2 2 *

" # " 1 0

" ,

3 " " #, D " 1

# * 2 " " # 0 # 6 2

F5 # , D "

2 C ,0,6 C 4/ 0 3

" ,

# # " 0 "

, 45

2 3 " , =# " 0 6 " " # 0 #

" " # 1 * 3 "

2 3 , =# " # 2 2 3

0 , 6 2 2 ,4 , #

# 6 2 3 2 " # 7 " ,4/6 2

2 " " 0 0 : #,

< 6 6 2 0 2 " 2 6 456

" 0 # " " # " 6

2 " # # " 0 , 2

2 0 0 " 6 "

, ( : #6 " 2 #

* 2 " ,

) 2 # 3 < 0 2 " 1

, 2 " "

2 " 6 " # 6 "

" 2 3 * * " I

" I ,0,6 E 0 " H / I 0 2 I ,0,6 E 2 " - " 0 >

$ 4 ,

6 2 3 2 " 2 3

2 < ,54 " ,4 6 #, =# 6 2 3 2

" 2 < , ,F 6 #6 2 2

(5)

* 1 0 2 2 3 6

2 * " # 1 0 2 ",

6 1 F J 0 2 2 3 6 2 " #

1 J 0 2 2 3 ,9 ₆

" 0 " 0 1 " *#

, G 2 6 0 " * " 0 2 6 0 6 1 " *# 0

2 " # 0 2 , 7 2 0 " 6

* " 0 " ,

( 1 " " 0 , 6

" # H ) 2 # " 0 6

0 " , 2 6 0 6 F J 0 0 " #

K) 0 I/_, _{# #} ₆ ₀ _J6 _" _# _H ₎

2 2 # * 2 " " 99J 0

) 0 , ) 6 0 6 H ) " "

2 " # 0 2 " 2 ", 6 " # )

0 2 2 9 0 * 2 "

0 , ; 0 #6 0 0 2 0 ",

2 " 6 0 2 " # " # " ,

0 > " : "" " , 1

2 " 0# 1 6 " " * " , ( 9

" 1 " ( / 0 2

0 1 , ( 5 1 " "

H ) " 0 2 0 ) , ( " ,

H " * 0 *#

Yit=Kitα(AitLitHit)1−α,

9 _" _{# 0 2} _{# 1} _" _{0 2} _{2 3}

" 0 * 2 " " # 0 2 * 2 " , ( (

/ " ,

/_{( 0} _{6 E} _{6 G} _{0 E} _{06 .} ₆ _" _" ₂ _,

(6)

2 Yit # i t, K " # 6 H

" 2 3 6L 2 * "A * 0 0 " #, ;

6 : 6 " # ! 0 *# A1−α

it ,

D C ,0,6 C 4/ " D F 0

3 " 6 H, # # * #

2 3 " " *# " , " 3

2 3 2 h # 0 H = expφ(h)0 2 3 2

" 6 " 0 2 0 0 " 0 "

Yit=Kitα(AitLiteφ(hit))1−α.

: *7 " " * " " #

" 2 3 # , <

# " *# " # "

# , 6 / " 1 6 #

6 ", D 2 E 2 " - " 0 > $ 4 " G " .

6 0 6 2 0 2 3 "

, 2 " 0 2 3

" #6 6 " , 6

" 2

yit=

Yit

Lit

=Ait

Kit

Yit α

−α

eφ(hit)₌_A itκ

α

−α

it e

φ(hit)_,

2 κ , 3 0 0

lnyit = lnAit+

α

1−αlnκit+φ(hit). 9

" *7 "# * " " #

0 2 , D 1 9 * *

2 0 0 2 " 1 * 2 2 * # "

∆ lny= ∆ lnA+ α

1−α∆ lnκ+ ∆φ(h), /

2 ∆ 0 * * 2 2 " , *

(7)

6 #6 " # 0 2 2 3 # 0 *#

∆ lnA

∆ lny,

" 0 " * 2 " 0 2

0 " " " *# " # 2

* 0 # * " " # 0 2 , C 6 " 2

2 1 7 # 0 # L "#

* " 0 2 7 #, 6 " " 6 * "

0 2 6 " 0 6

α

1−α∆ lnκ

∆ lny = 0,

G 6 " " 0 1 * 2 2 2

# 0 # * " 0 2 ,

: φ(h) 3 " ,0,6 !

/ " " 0 * 2 0 0 "

" , G 6 " " 2 2 = "

E 2 " φ

φ(h) = θ

1−ψh

1−ψ_. ₅

) " 0 * 6 2 ψ = 0.58 " θ = 0.32, ""

2 " α " δ, " "

, α, 2 ,/ %

# L " 6 *

) # " 0 ; " ! " ) ; !) ,

D " 6 2 2 " 8( " ,

D # " 3 3 65 ₃ ₆ _I₆ ₂

5₍ ₄ _" _" _0# _" _{; !)} ₈₍

3, * " " " " # 3 6 0 " 00 0

6 " # , 3 3 * "

00 0 ,

(8)

2 " " 0

δ= 1−Kt+1−It

Kt

.

6 2 * " δ= 3.5% # 0 5 " ,

D " " F9 " 0 " , 2 3

" 2 * " ! D " * !D 6 , ,4 _D

" " 0 " 0 " 5 # " 6

" : < #6 3 = " H ,

# " 2 " !D 0

! # C ", 2 "

3, D 1 *# K0 = I0/[(1 +g)(1 +n)−(1−δ)]6 2 K0

36 I0 1 " 6 g 0 0

" n 0 2 ,F "

2 * " 0 2 > 6 I−j = (1 +n)−j(1 +g)−jI0,

> L 2 " 0 :

: # I0, D " 2 * 2 " " 3 0

5 # " " K0 3 , D

* " 0 0 *# "7 0 1 " 8,(,

2 3 6 0 0 0 *

" * " g = ,59J, 0 2 6 n, 0 0 2

# * 2 " 6 " "

!D ,

" Ait6 2 * " yit " "

( ) " 1 " " , 6 2 "

" 6 * # 2 " ", 6 2 " #

, 2 6 2 " # # 6 # $# 6

$ 0 4 6 $ ) - * " 2 F 6 % # 6 ! ; 2 % 6 7 " = 2

,

4 _" _! _D _" _{* 6} _G _{6 (} _{" )} _,

F _" _" _{E 0} _{" H} _/ _{" G} _{" .}

6 0 ,

" 3 5 # "

* * " 8(, ) 0 " # #

2 2 2 3, . "

$ " # 0 # : 6 "

( " D " D , 2 " E

0 " # 5 2 J * 8,(,, P M gK

0 0 " * 2 * " 2 " "

" 0 , < #

(9)

κit " Hit " # # 2 * "

Ait=

yit

κ

α

−α it Hit

.

8 0 " κit6 2 0 "

M gP Kit =

α κit

. 4

2 " 0 1 6 * " "

2 3 # , 2

2 E 2 " - " 0 > $ 4 " * X,

2 , ,6 Xit =κ

α

−α it e

θ

−ψh

−ψ

it 6 2 " #, 9 6 2

lnyit = lnAit+ lnXit. F

G 2 6 " 6 2 " ln(y) " 0

1 6 2 0 * 2 " " #

var(lnyit) =var(lnAit) +var(lnXit) + 2cov(lnAit,lnXit).

1 * 6 2 2 #6

3 " 0 * "6 0 2 "

# " " 0 * " ,

0 " # 6 # 6 9

0 2 3 , *

1 : # ,

0 " * * 0 , 6 2 3

" 0 "6 # , 6

0 y " ,F/ , " ,9 ,

( "6 " * 0

" , = 2 " 6 0 X " #

" " *# E 2 " - " 0 > $ 4 0 *#var(lnyit) =

cov(lnyit,lnAit) + cov(lnyit,lnXit), 6 " " 0

cov(lnAit,lnXit) < # * 2 6 var(lnAit) " var(lnXit), ) " 16 2

" ,

(10)

0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 0,80 1,00 1,20 1,40

1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

var(ln(X)) var(ln(A)) 2*var(lnX*lnA)

0 2 3 "

5 J6 ,4 ,9 , G 6 2 * " 0 " 0 6

0 ",

* '

# (lny) (lnX) (lnA) (lnX,lnA)

,F/ ,4 ,/5 ,9

5 ,F , 9 ,/ , 5

4 , ,5 ,95 ,

45 , 9 ,5/ ,9F ,

F , ,// ,9 ,

F5 , ,/ ,94 ,

, ,9F ,// ,

5 , 5 ,9 ,5/ ,9/

,9 ,9 ,5 ,9

"6 lnA # * , =# 6 2 6

2 9 J 0 , ) 2 6

0 2 3 " * #

" 0 ", * "

(11)

2 3 2 55J 0 " #, =# "

0 " " # " 0 # 6 2

2 9 J , " * " F5 X " A "

1 # 2 3 " ,

#6 * 2 " " # #, )

6 0 0 6 0 0 , 5 , F 0 ",

" # " 0 " # 2 #

2 0 " 2 6 * *# " #6 # " "

2 # " ,

0 " 9 " # " # 6 8(6 " 0

2 3 " , ) :0 26 * 2 2

* 2 3 , ( : #6 M H(

0 " # 2 3 # , 5 R2 _{= 0}_.₀₀₀₅

6 2 0 M ,4 R2 _{= 0}_.₄₇ _,

0 0 9

0 * 2 * #

" # 2 2 " 2 0 , 6 0 "6

2 0 0 " , C 6 #

" 0 6 * # " # ", 6

6 < : " E 2 "

456 # * 2 " # " 2 3

2 3, 6 0 M ,9/ R = 0.05), 00

* 0 " 2 "

(12)

- " 0 > $ 4 6 ! F 6 G " . " # " H

6 0 6 2 : " 0 " # "

* 3 " 2 3 , D : "

< "6 " 6 " #6 1 "

2 3 ,

3 =E9 " * E 2 " - " 0 > $

4 , 2 " 0 F5 " " " "

2 2 , # " 1 " 59J

2 3 " " # 0 /4J, 2

" " *# 6 2 * # , ( : #6

X " A F5 2 < 5 J " /FJ6 #

) " 1 , G 2 6 # " 2 2

" /J 1 " *# , " 6

2 " # 5FJ 2 3 " ,

" * " 0 # 2 0 2 ,

0 > # # , < 2

0 2 " 2 6 456 " 0 # "

" # " 6 2 " # # " 0 ,

2 2 0 1 ,

!

2 0 * "

0 2 1 6 6 F9 , D < / 6

0 2 3 " " "

* " #6 9 _" _{2 3 ,}

0 2 3 2 8(N 46 4 8(N /6 F9

6 0 2 0 J ", / ₀ ₀ ₀

* 0 2 * " 0 0 0 *

0 , * " 0 "

:0 2 A= 100 8(

2 3 =E/ * E 2 " - " 0 > $ 4 "6 *

" " # F5 9/J " J6 #6 2 ,

9₎ _{" *} ₆ _{" *} _" _{T F P} ₌_A −α

, G 2 6 0 2 " 6

* ! 0 *# 0 A6 2 * " " "

! 0 2 2 3 ,

(13)

* "

y60 y00 A60 A00 κ60 κ00 h60 h00

0 8(N 46 4 8(N /6 F9 5F 4 , , / , ,

# # " # " *# 56/J, 0 6

* 6 2 99J, 2

* " 0 " 2 7 6 0 6 , #

, # ,

" " " " # "

" 6 # > " " * 9, D " "

5 0 6 " 0 0 2 2 3

KC I 0 5 0 2 2 3 0 " 9, FJ

, J # 6 K % 2 I 0 / 6 0 " ,9 J

9, FJO KC " % 2 I 6 ,/ J , 4JO K( 2 % 2 I

6 , J ,/5J " K I 0 / 6

0 0 2 0 " 9, 5J ,//J # , " 2

* # * 0 " "

,

* 9 0 2

# 0 y A H κ I/Y

( ,F/J ,9 J , J ,4 J 5J

C /,9 J ,4 J , /J ,4/J J

% 2 ,4 J , /J , J ,4FJ J

C " % 2 ,F J ,/9J , 4J ,55J FJ

( 2 % 2 , J , FJ ,F9J ,/4J J

,5 J ,/ J , /J , J FJ

2&y J F/J 9J /J 59J

I/Y 0 0 0

0 0 2 ,4 J # 6 2 0 " #

" ,9 J #, * 9 2 " # 0 2 #

2 0 0 2 2 3 , D KC I6 " #

0 2 0 " ,4 J # 6 K I 0 0 2 A 2 0 ,

6 * 2 0 2 2 3 " " # 0 2 2

(14)

2 3 0 2 2 2 #

6 59J6 0 0 I/Y #6 0 6 2 0 2

, C 6 " 0 6 K I

2 1 " 0 0 2 , 6

* 2 0 2 2 3 " > , 5

* 9 2 0 " , J #6 *

2 y 0 2 9J , 6 0 2 H # 0 ,

* / % 2

# 0 y κ H A

( ,F/J ,/4J , J ,9 J

J 5/J J

C /,9 J ,/ J , /J ,4 J

J J J

% 2 ,4 J ,5 J , J , /J

J 9 J / J

C " % 2 ,44J ,94J , 4J ,/9J

J 55J /J

( 2 % 2 , J ,9 J ,F9J , FJ

9 J F J J

,5 J ,44J , /J ,/ J

9 J 4 J / J

; * *

2 3 0 2 ,

* / 0 2 " 1 0 * 2 "

, : * 2 # " *# 1 0 2

, 0 6 F J * " 0 2 2 3 * " *#

" # " # J " " # 0 2 , 4

5 _* _{" *# E} ₂ _{" - " 0 > $} ₄ _" _F5,

# * " , / * 2 0 2 2 3 "

,

: : " 0 = * * " ( 0 / " ! ,

4 _" _" _{*# =} ₆ _{2# 6 . ,} _" _/ _" _* _!

2 3 0 2 /J, "# " , 6 # "

0 /5 6 0 " " # 9 , ( "6

" " 0 2 " 2 0 2 2 3

" 0 2 !6 2 3 " # 2 3 6 "

(15)

G 5/J 2 3 0 2 , F

; 6 2 6 0 " 2

* " , 0 2 0 6 KC I 6 J

0 2 1 " *# " # 0 2 . * # 2

0 0 2 0 / J K % 2 I 0 6 /J

KC " % 2 I " J K( 2 % 2 I, K I6

" # / J " 2 3 , 2 " 6

2 " # , =# 3 6 0 6 "

" 6 " # * " " " # 0 2 ,

- * 9 " / 2 "

" " * 1 0 2

2 3 6 2 * " # 1 0 2 0

0 ,

) 2 # " # 0 2 " * 2

" 0 2

2 3 " " # 0 2 " * 2

0 2 "A0 2 , 8 0 / 6 2 " 2 3

0 2 2

var(∆ lny) = var(∆ lnA) +var(∆ lnX) + 2cov(∆ lnA,∆ lnX).

* 5 " 0 2

2 3 , * 2 " # 0 2 " * 3

2 3 0 2 * 2 " , ( : #6 A 0 2

" J 0 2 6 2 0 2 "

# 95J " 2 3 0 2 ,

2 0 #P * " * # 2 " #

* , 2 0 " * ! # * 0 J6 2

* 3 2 "0 2 ! " " 2 "

,

F _" _* ₂ ₀ _* _{2 3}

0 2 * " " * ,

2 " , 6

J 2 3 0 2 * 2 " ,

E 2 " - " 0 > $ 4 " " # 0 2 1 * 2

F J " J 2 3 0 2 , " " *#

0 *#var(∆ lny) =cov(∆ lny,∆ lnA) +cov(∆ lny,∆ lnX), 6

" " 0 cov(∆ lnA,∆ lnX) < # * 2 6 var(∆ lnA) "

var(∆ lnX), 8 0 6 2 * A0 2 4J

y 0 2 * 2 " , ) " 16 2 " ,

(16)

* 5 ' % 2

-" (∆ lny) (∆ lnX) (∆ lnA) (∆ lnX,∆ lnA)

,5 , F , ,9

4 , 5 , , , 4

4 F , 4 , / , ,

F , , , , 5

, 5 , , F , 5

* 5 2 * 0 * 2 0 2 A

"X * 2 " , 6 * 2 0 2 A

" 2 ,5 ", 0 * "

" " " # " * κ

2 3 0 2 ,

# " " F F "

0 2 " 0 2 , 6 " ,5 4 ,

" " * " 0 2 "

"6 6 " 6 #6 "

* 6 " 0 L " " 0 #,

" : " 6 2 * 0 2

0 2 * " F " F ,

* 2 2 0 : 0 2 2" 2 F , ( : #6

0 0 2 " " , 4J F , J F ,

* 2 * " # 0 2 2

0 2 2" 2 , 6 2 A0 2 2 F , 5J

# " * 0 ,99J # 6 2 0 2

" 2 3 " " ,

* " 0 , " F # " 1 " 0

= 6 2# 6 . , " / * " # !

1 0 2 ,

E 2 " - " 0 > $ 4 * * 2 0 2 A "κ ,/ ,

( " ! 1 * "

* " * M

0 0 # 0 , ) 1

* " 0 2 " 2 " * " 0 2 " # 2 "

" 0 2 2 * " 0 2 ,

- " 3 " # 1 " 0 2 6 * "

0 2 2" 2 45 " F # , = " 6 2 "

0 2 0 1 * " 45 " 45 , < #

" 1 6 " * < ,

(17)

A 0 2 6 2 * < " K( 2 % 2 I " KC " % 2 I

" * " " #,

* % 2 *# ( * "

F F

# 0 y κ H A y κ H A

( , 4J ,59J , J , 5J , J ,/ J , J ,99J

J / J 9 J / J J 99J

C /, 9J , FJ , J 9,9 J 9,4FJ ,4 J , 9J , 5J

J 5J J FJ 4J 5/J

% 2 9,5FJ ,5 J , /J ,F5J ,F J ,/5J , FJ ,/9J

J 9 J 5 J /J 59J 9J

C " % 2 ,/4J ,/ J , /J , J , FJ ,99J , J , 5J

4J / J / J 9 J F/J /J

( 2 % 2 , J ,/5J , J , J , /J , J ,45J , J

9J / J 9 J 94/J 4 4J J

,/FJ , J , J ,4 J ,4 J ,59J , 9J 9, 4J

9J / J 95/J 9 J 5/J F5J

; * *

2 3 0 2 ,

( 0 6 " 0 " 0

1 " *# , "6 0 " * " 0 2

6 0 6 1 " *# 0 2 " # 0 2 , 7

2 0 6 * " 0

2 3 " " " , 6

" 6 2 " " * 2 "

, = 2 " " " # 0 2 "

1 " 0 : " #6 2 2 0 2 " #

00 " * " " " " # 6 " #

" 0 : #, " 6 6 " " ",

G 6 * " # 1 0

" 2 # " 0 ,

(18)

"

#! $ %

%

&

"

* *7 0 * " : " # " ,0,6

; 6 0 " ( 3 / " ) 0 6 . " - * 6

0 # , 2 # # 2 6

" " * 6 0# "

" " * 0 # 0 "

, 6 " " # 0 6 "

" 0 2 ,

" " " * " 0 0 0 * ,

D 2 *7 2 , 6 2 2 " 3 " " *

" # "6 " " 0 " # " 0

*7 , ( "6 " 0 2 0 " 2

2 " " " < , 6 2 "

45 H ) " # 2 0 *# " " 6

A 0 2 * < # 2 0 # 0 " 0 2 0

* 2 " 2 , $ 0 #

1 " 0 2 "6 2

0 2 7 #,

D " " " 0 6 2 " " ) " 1, #

D 6 ( 6 0 3 0 6 ) 0 6 C "" 6 (

) 6 H ) 6 $ * " ( * ( ) , 9 _: ₀

D 6 2 1 ! 0 " (

* 06 0 2 % 6 $# " 3 # K( I " 8 " E 0" ,

* 0 K 0 I 3 0 0 6 2 8()6 ; 2 Q "6

) 6 " "6 #6 $ " , ) 0 ( 0 6 E 6 G 0

E 06 . 6 " " 2 , 5 " 6 #6 1

2 0 " F H ) 6 2 " $ ** 3

# H 0 0 , $ * 0 # / " ( * (

4, * 4 0 " 0 2 * *# "

0 0 2 A= 100 8( ,

" # # 0 0 0 , D

* ) 0 6 0 6 1 " 1 " # 0 2

9 _{" *} _" _{( * (} _# ₆ _{2 " "}

(19)

" # J * 2 " , D A )

0 2 # 99J " K 0 ( 3 0I 6 *#

" " 4 J, * 0 H ) " ( *

( 0 6 2 " " # J " 9 J6 #, "

* " " " # H ) " 45,

" # H ) 6 456 2 * "

" " , " " 4 J A 8(6 2

45 " " F J, =# " #6 2 6 " 3 "

/5J, /

* 4 ) 0 " 0 2

# 0 ∆y60−00 A1960 A1975 A2000 ∆A60−00 κ1960 κ2000 ∆κ60−00

0 3 0 4J F 9 5 J ,5 ,45 J

D / J 4 9J 9,/9 9, 9 5J

( 4J 5 F J ,9/ 9, J

) 0 9 J 4 55 F J , F 9,9 5 J

C "" / J F 4 9 J ,F , J

( ) J 5F 5F J , 4 ,4 4 J

H ) / J 4 9 J , 4 , J

$ * F4J /5 9 /FJ ,4 ,99 /J

( * ( ) J / 9 / 9 J ,F ,94 J

D 1 $ ** 6 0

" "6 2 ( ) 1 0 * 00 *

#, ) 0 " ( * ( 1 "

κ J, 2 0 6

K 0 ( 3 0I " D 6 2 " 0 2 #

0 *# " " , : " * 2 "

2 > " *# 2 " " 6 2 3 0 0 0

" ,

) 0 : 6

6 " *# 0 " 6 5 _" _" _* _#

/ _H ₎ ₂ _" _# _"

= > 6 C 1 6 ) 0 6 $ * 6 ! 6 ' > " $ , ( : #6 0 H

) $ 6 A2 4 6 4 45 " 4 ,

5_! ₀ _* _" _# _; ₎ _{6 2}

# " " " 3, 6

P MgK # * 0 0 6 * " " 0 M #

(20)

# 0 * 2 " 6 0 0 2 " * 2 J " J6

2 1 ( * ( $ 6 2 " # 0

9 J , 0 / M gP K " 0

0 "6 0 " 0 4 ,

0,00 0,05 0,10 0,15 0,20 0,25 0,30 0,35 0,40

1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

World Average English (Speaking) Western Europe Asian Tigers Latin America

* F > 0 2 " 1 0 , " 0#

1 # * /, : 0 6 "

0 2 2 3 " A 0 2 , * " #

2 3 0 2 # 0 ) 0 6 * *

" 6 2 2 * 2, ) 1 6 H

) " ( * ( ) 1 " " # 0 "6

2 2 *# * 0 2 ,

0 0 # , # 6P MgK2 "

* ,

(21)

* F % 2 6 $ " - 0 %

# 0 y κ H A

0 3 0 ,F J , J ,5 J , J

J FJ /J

D , 4J , J ,4 J , 9J

J 99J 54J

( 9,99J ,/ J , 5J , FJ

J 94J 5 J

) 0 5, /J ,4FJ , J 9, /J

5J J /J

C "" , J , 4J , FJ ,/5J

4J 49J J

( ) ,/ J , 5J ,9 J , /J

9 J 55J J

H ) ,F4J ,9FJ , 9J ,/5J

//J 4J 5 J

$ * ,5FJ , 5J ,F/J , J

J 59J 9J

( * ( ) ,54J ,F J , /J , J

/ J F J J

; * *

2 3 0 2 ,

"

#! '

0 2 " " H ) " *

0 1 " " " # * 2

" 6 " < # 0 2 2 # " , 1

$ 6 2 " 0 : A, "6 " #

(22)

* % 2 H )

# 0 y κ H A

H ) 0 ,F4J ,9FJ , 9J ,/5J

//J 4J 5 J

) 0 ,4 J ,9 J , 5J ,5 J

5 J J 4 J

= > ,4 J ,/5J ,4FJ ,/FJ

J / J FJ

$ , J ,/ J , J , J

R J 95J F4J

$ * ,F9J , 4J ,45J , J

FJ J J

$ - , 4J , J , 5J ,FFJ

99J 4J 9 J

" ,/5J , J , J , 4J

FJ 49J J

C 1 ,59J ,59J ,/4J ,/FJ

95J 4J 9 J

! 0 # ,F4J ,/ J ,F J ,9 J

J /J 5 J

8 0 # , 5J ,/ J , J ,45J

//J 5J F J

' > ,FFJ , 9J , 9J , 5J

/J 9 J 5/J

; * *

2 3 0 2 ,

C 6 " # " 2 * " # 2 " "

6 # 0 6 2 0 "

A 0 2 , " " A *# 9,95J # , 2 0 " " A

*# ,4/J # 0 , 4 ₀ _{5 *} ₂ _A _"

) 0 " " # H ) 4 " F

3 4 6 0 : " 2 0 : L "

L 0 6 0 " - " 3 , * " " * F

" 0 2 2" 2 " " 6 0 " # ,

4 ₂ _" _# _{" H} ₎ ₆_A _{*# 9,94J} _# ₀

(23)

6 0 0 " 8( " # * 3 , )

6 " * $ ,

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Latin America USA Brazil Mexico Argentina Chile

0 5 ! " # H ) 6 8(6 S

* 6 H ) 1 " # 0 2 "

" " 0 : # 0 A" " ,

C 6 1 κ "6 6 " 0 "

# , = > 6 6 8,(,

" 5J 2 " 1 6 0 = > P #6 F

2 " * 0 , # 1 >> " *# H

" L 2 " #

, 0 " "" 2 3 6

2 " # " 3 # # 0 "

2 ,

# # 1 " 0 0 2

0 # " 0 F "

0 2 2 # "6 6 # " "

0 : " #6 , G 6 2 0

6 2 ", 2 " 6 0 2 0 2

F _* _{= >} ₂ _" _" _8,(,

( #6 H #> " C 4 " 6 0 2 "2 "

0 2 2" 2 6 0 2 H ) *

(24)

" # " 0 " 0

0 " " " # 2 0, 6

# * A 2 0 0 2

0 # * * ",

"

#!

#

!

* 2 0 2 " ) 0 , *

0 2 2 # " # , D

1 ( E 6 0 1 " * "

# 0 2 0 5 J,9 ! " # 0 2 2 # 0 G 0 E 0

" ( 0 6 * 0 F J 2 3 0 2 ,

* % 2 ) 0

# 0 y κ H A

) 0 0 5, /J ,4FJ , J 9, /J

5J J /J

G 0 E 0 5,5 J , /J , J 5, 4J

J J J

. /, /J ,/ J ,/ J , FJ

9 J J 5/J

( E 5, 4J , FJ ,4 J ,9 J

/J 9 J //J

( 0 /, J , J ,F9J 9, 4J

J 4J F J

2 , J , 9J ,/ J 9,/5J

J 9J 54J

" /,/ J , J ,4 J ,/5J

J J 5 J

; * *

2 3 0 2 ,

9 _: _* _{" *# E} ₂ _{" - " 0 > $} ₄ _" _# _""

2 "# *# T 0 5 6 2 2 " ) 0 G 0 E 06 ( 0 6

2 " E 0 2 # 0 , ) " *# E 2 " - " 0 >

$ 6 " # " T 0 " * " # 0 2

# " " *# " #6 2 " E 2 " - " 0 > $ " , 0

(25)

0 * 2 A ) 0 " 0 0 ,

:0 2 6 " 2 " H ) 6 " # "

0 2 0 # 45,9

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Asian Tigers USA Taiwan Hong Kong Korea Singapore

0 ! " # ) 0 6 8(6 S

(

0 1 " 0 2 "

, " " # "

< " , E 2 " - " 0 > $

4 6 ! F 6 G " . " # " H 6 6

2 " * 3 2 3 " " *#

" # " , " " F5 " , D 2 "

45 " 6 # " " 6 2

" " " # 2 " * # # , #

45 " # " 2 " ,

" # " 2 "

" " 0

" " # ,

9 _* _{" *# $} _{" = 2} _{" - " 3} _{, ;} ₆ ₂ ₆

0 6 0 " " " 0 " "

, P MgK ) 0 2

8(,

(26)

0 2 " 1 2 "

" # 1 " *# # 0 " * " " #

2 0 2 0 ", ) 0 1 "

" 0 " " 6 1 0 2 2 #

" " # 0 2 , G 6 0 0 0 2 " 2 # "

6 1 " *# " #,

" # 1 0 " 2 3

" # 0 : " 1 ,

0 H ) 6 6 # 1 " *# 0 : "

" #6 2 ) 0 KC I # " # , ) 0

2 2 * K ! I ,0,6 ! " ! 6 ) 0 6

. " - * # " 3 0 *

2 " 2 # " " KA” # 0 " "

3 0 ! 1 0 * , "# " #

* # 6 0 " " 0 "

1 ,

" 6 " " # 1 0

" " 0 2 2 3 6

0 2 " 2 " " *

2 "69 _, ₆ _{* 3}

0 2 2 3 * 2 " , ( "6 456

2 " # , "6 6

" # 2 # " "

6 6 2 2 0

" " *# 0 2 " , 00

0 2 " 6 * # " : " 3 "

" #6 # * 2 3 " ,99

& %

U V ) ! ) & ** , K $ 0

$ ) 0 6I

5 9 / ,

9 ₀ ₆ _# _{" H} _,

99 ₁ _! _{" !} _{/ , -} ₀

" = " ! + " G " " 1 9 ,

(27)

U V ) ! ) & ** K- %

0 # " C 3 0 C " D " * I

6 4 9 /,

U9V + ' $ , ) & # ** KG 2 ) $

" ! " # % 2 W6I C 6 - 6

" - = 3 ) ,

U/V + $ $ - ** , K) C " $ ) "

- ( 3 0,I D 3 0 ! !% 6 , // ,

U5V + & ) . ' *** K " )

8 " " 6I ;= - D 3 0 ! X4 ,

U V + ! ) // K - G $

" )0 0 $ $ # ,I6

6 , 9/6 0 /9 49,

U4V + $ 0 *** K ( 0 $ % 2 W6I

6 5 F9,

UFV + $ + ! //( K % 2 )

) ) 6I 6 95 9,

U V 1 , . ** , K H " 0 $ P ( 0 (

! # - F F6I 6 . 95 54,

U V 1 , . 2 ' ,3 $ //4, KG H ) P !

-% 2 = 0W6I 6 /9 F4 9 ,

U V 1 , . & ' ** , K P ) ( # > "

" % 2 C " 6I! " 6 5 44 ,

U V 1 0 5 6 // , K " 2 6 6 "

! % 2 ) 0 ; 2 D " ) ' 2 G

8 " ( 6I ;= - G ! X ,

U 9V 7 $ $ - 7 8 ** , K # #

; * ! 0 T 0P ! ; * D " ! 6I

&& 0 , 0 ,* & & < &2 3 0 & /, ,

(28)

U /V 7 + //4 K C 8( ; ) 6I

( # $ = 6 . #,

U 5V ** K% 0 ( - 0 ( # 6 8 "

6 " $ ** 0 G# 6I 6

/5F /4 ,

U V 9 & 1 ) /// KD # " ( $ ! " C C

D 3 W6I 6 * #6 /

F9 ,

U 4V 9 % + # : ** , KC # - 0 $ - " = 0

I, C ,

U FV 9 & + ** " ! # 6 , ,

$ $ 8 # ! # ,

U V 0 & & ' // K$ " 6

6 " % 2 6I$ $ % # 6

/ 5 ,

U V 0 $ ) & ; 3< //4 K ; - % 2

G % W6I & '(() " , = (,

= 3 " . ., - * 06 $ * "0 6 C) C ! 6 49 9,

U V ' & 1 ) //*, KD # P $ 2 - ! $ W6I

F C # ,

U V //" K " * '+,- '((,6I ! $ ,

U 9V 5 2 //" K % 2 ; ,I

45 9 ,

U /V 5 2 & . // K) $ *

% 2 ,I 4 C # / 4 /94,

U 5V ) /4 % . / . .; =

- 6 " * " *# $ * 8 # ! ,

U V 2 ! //*, . $ . 6

(29)

U 4V $ 1 $ // , K= 0# )" "

I, 6 F 9 ,

U FV $ 1 $ ***, 6 C ! ,

U V $ 1 //= K; " " ! " # #6I

6 9 5 5 55 ,

U9 V $ ! ' *** K # # $ $8 $ "6 "6

; $ 6I 6 5 / 9 4 9 ,

U9 V $ ! ' ** KD G ) " % W6I ! "

6 5 9 9 4 9 ,

U9 V $ ! // K- " ) % * 8 " 6I

" 0 6 9 5 9/9,

U99V & 5 /// KD " " ) % 2 % W 1 ( 3 6 ( $ L 6

" % 2 $ 6I 6 / / 9F5 / ,

U9/V . & ) /=( KD 0 " # "

0 6I 1 # 2 # 6 6 " , #

) " - " H # ", ; G ", $ 5 5 ,

U95V > //" K # # ; * $ 0 (

-) % 2 1 6I 6 / F ,

4 :

'

%

,

&

1 ! ? 5 @ "6 8 " E 0" 6 8()6 ) 6 $ " 6 ( ) 6

; 2 Q ",

. 1 ) 6 #6 "6 = 0 6 6 ; 2 #6 "6 36

% #6 ; " 6 (2 " 6 (2 > ",

! 1 $# 6 ! 0 6 ( 6 % 6 3 #,

# 2 6 G 0 E 06 E 6 ( 0 6 "6 . ,

1 (# 6 6 6 6 . " ,

(30)

! C 6 C # 6 " 6 ! 3 6 " 6 ; 6 ! ; 2 % 6

= 0 " 6 ! 6 7 ,

' - * 6 ! 6 $ 6 = > 6 C 1 6 " 6 % 6

8 0 #6 ! 0 #6 $ * 6 ) 0 6 ( " 6 $ - 6 G " 6 = 6 ! 6

' > 6 ; 0 ,

= * " 6 " " Y * 0 6 % # 6 . ,

< ! % = 2 6 H 6 C 2 6 Q * *2 6 80 " 6 > 6 E # 6

% 6 $ 6 0 6 ( 0 6 C > * < 6 Q * 6 ; 0 6 $ ) - * 6

$ 0 ,

+

!

<

%

0

) 2 " 1 6 # " 2

36 2 " " 6 # " *

* " 8(, 6 6 2 * "

" 0 : 6 2 2 0

* " 2 ", ) 6 0 " #

# 2 2 2 3 " A * "

, . " $ "

# 0 # : 6 "

( " D " D , 2 " E0

0 " # 5 2 J * 8(,

MgP K 0 0 " * 2

* " 2 " " " 0

, * ), " "

3,

(31)

* ), ' 6 E0

# (lny) (lnX) (lnA) (lnX,lnA)

,F/ , ,/ , F

5 ,F ,54 ,/ , F

4 , ,5/ ,95 , 9

45 , 9 ,5 ,9F , 9

F , ,/9 ,9 , 4

F5 , ,/ ,94 ,

, ,94 ,// ,9

5 , 5 ,9 ,5/ ,9/

,9 ,9 ,5F ,94

3 5 2 " 0

" # 5 2 J

* 8(,

" 1 , 1 6

" 2 2 2 2 " "

E0. 4 6 # " 2 "

* ,

* ), % 2 E0

y κ H A

( ,F/J , J , J , 4J

9 J 5/J J

C /,9 J ,F J , /J ,99J

J J 59J

% 2 ,4 J ,F J , J ,F J

9 J 9 J 9 J

C " % 2 ,44J ,5 J , 4J ,9 J

FJ 55J 4J

( 2 % 2 , J ,99J ,F9J , J

9/J F J J

,5 J , 9J , /J ,54J

54J 4 J /99J

; * *

(32)

* ), 0 2 " 2

3, 2 E06 * A 2 3

0 2 J6 " J6 2 * " " "

3, " * /, 6

* A # 2 0 2 2 3 ,

!

A

0 &

3<

? //4@B 7

" 0 6 E 2 " - " 0 > $ 4 2 0

" 0 2 3

var(lnyit) =covar(lnyit,lnAit) +covar(lnyit,lnXit)

0 6 0 0 ln(X) "

ln(A), * ),9 " 0

*

* ),9 ' H

# covar(lny,lnX)_var(lny) covar(ln_var(lny,ln_y)A)

, / ,95

5 , ,9F

4 , ,9F

45 ,5F ,/

F ,5 ,/4

F5 ,5 ,/4

,/4 ,5

5 ,/ ,54

,/ ,5F

* ),9 : 1 , 6

" " # 2 3 " ,

D " # # 95J 6

* 5FJ ,

" 0 6 E 2 " - " 0 > $ 4 2 0

(33)

" 0 2 2 3

var(∆ lnyit) =covar(∆ lnyit,∆ lnAit) +covar(∆ lnyit,∆ lnXit)

0 6 0 0 ∆ ln(X) "

∆ ln(A), * ),/ " 0

*

* ),/ ' % 2

-" covar(∆ ln_{var(∆ ln}y,∆ ln_y) X) covar(∆ ln_{var(∆ ln}y,∆ ln_y) A)

, 9 , 4

4 , ,

4 F , ,

F , 5 , 5

, ,

* ),/ : 1 , 6 " # 0 2

4J 2 3 0 2 * 2 , * "

" " ,