FUNDAÇÃO GETULIO VARGAS
ESCOLA de PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO em ECONOMIA
Rafael Garcia Borges de Oliveira
Impactos de Incentivos Financeiros
sobre o Desempenho Escolar:
Evidências do Programa Cartão
Família Carioca
Rafael Garcia Borges de Oliveira
Impactos de Incentivos Financeiros
sobre o Desempenho Escolar:
Evidências do Programa Cartão
Família Carioca
Dissertação para obtenção do grau de mes-tre apresentada à Escola de Pós-Grauação em Economia
Área de concentração: Microeconomia Orientador: Marcelo Côrtes Neri
Ficha catalográfica elaborada pela Biblioteca Mario Henrique SimonsenlFGV
Oliveira, Rafael Garcia Borges de
Impactos de incentívos financeiros sobre o desempenho escolar: evidências do Programa Cartão Faúlia Carioca / Rafael Garcia Borges de Oliveira. -2013.
26 f.
Dissertação (mestrado) - Fundação Getulio Vargas, Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia.
Orientador: Marcelo Cortes Neri.. Inclui bibliografia.
1. Programas de sustentação de renda. 2. Recompensas e punições na educação. 3.
Avaliação educacional. 1. Neri, Marcelo Cortes. TL Fundação Getulio Vargas. Escola de
Pós-Graduação em Economia. IV. Título.
CDD -338.5
FUNDAÇÃO
GUIO S
RAFAEL GARCIA BORGES DE OLIVEIRA
JMPACTOSFINANCEIROS SOBRE O DESEPEHO ESCOLAR: EVIDÊNCIAS DO PROGRAMA CARTÃO FAMÍIA CARIOCA.
Dissrtação apresentada ao Curso de Mestrado em Economia da Escola de Pós Graduação em Economia para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Economia.
Data da deesa: 17/12/2012
Aprovada em:
ASSINATURA DOS MEMBROS DA BANCA EAMINADORA
Marcelo Côrtes Ncri
Orientador
(
a)
?
,
Sergei Srez nilfón Soal'es/ ....
Resumo
❊st❡ ❡st✉❞♦ ❛✈❛❧✐❛ ♦ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛ ❈❛rtã♦ ❋❛♠í❧✐❛ ❈❛r✐♦❝❛ ✭❈❋❈✮✱ ❞♦ ♠✉♥✐❝í♣✐♦ ❞♦ ❘✐♦ ❞❡ ❏❛♥❡✐r♦✳ ❆tr❛✈és ❞❡ ❞❛❞♦s ❛❞♠✐♥✐str❛t✐✈♦s✱ ❡st✐♠❛♠♦s ♦ ✐♠♣❛❝t♦ ❞♦s ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈♦s ✐♥tr♦❞✉③✐❞♦s ♣❡❧♦ ❈❋❈ s♦❜r❡ ❛ ❢r❡q✉ê♥❝✐❛ ❡ ❞❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦ ❞♦s ❛❧✉♥♦s ❡♠ t❡st❡s ♣❛❞r♦♥✐③❛❞♦s✳ ❊♥❝♦♥tr❛♠♦s ❡❢❡✐t♦s ♣♦s✐✲ t✐✈♦s s♦❜r❡ ❝✐ê♥❝✐❛s ❡ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈♦s ♣❛r❛ ♣♦rt✉❣✉ês✱ ❛❧é♠ ❞❡ ✐♠♣❛❝t♦ ♥♦ s❡♥t✐❞♦ ❞❡ r❡❞✉③✐r ❛s ❢❛❧t❛s ❞♦s ❛❧✉♥♦s ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥t❡s✳
Abstract
❚❤✐s st✉❞② ❡✈❛❧✉❛t❡s t❤❡ ♣r♦❣r❛♠ ❈❛rtã♦ ❋❛♠í❧✐❛ ❈❛r✐♦❝❛ ✭❈❋❈✮ ❝♦♥❞✉❝t❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♠✉♥✐❝✐♣❛❧✐t② ♦❢ ❘✐♦ ❞❡ ❏❛♥❡✐r♦✱ ❇r❛③✐❧✳ ❚❤r♦✉❣❤ t❤❡ ✉s❡ ♦❢ ❛❞♠✐♥✐str❛t✐✈❡ ❞❛t❛✱ ✇❡ ❡st✐♠❛t❡ t❤❡ ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈❡s ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝❡❞ ❜② ❈❋❈ ♦♥ s❝❤♦♦❧ ❛tt❡♥❞❛♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ st✉❞❡♥ts✬ ♣❡r❢♦r♠❛♥❝❡ ♦♥ st❛♥❞❛r❞✐③❡❞ t❡sts✳ ❲❡ ✜♥❞ ♣♦s✐t✐✈❡ ❡✛❡❝ts ♦♥ ❙❝✐❡♥❝❡ t❡st s❝♦r❡s ❛♥❞ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈❡ ❡✛❡❝ts ♦♥ ❘❡❛❞✐♥❣ t❡st s❝♦r❡s✳ ❲❡ ❛❧s♦ ✈❡r✐❢② ❛ ♣♦s✐t✐✈❡ ❡✛❡❝t ♦♥ s❝❤♦♦❧ ❛tt❡♥❞❛♥❝❡✳
Lista de Figuras
Lista de Tabelas
✺✳✶ ▼é❞✐❛s ❞❡ ❈♦✈❛r✐❛❞❛s ♣♦r ❙t❛t✉s ❞❡ ❚r❛t❛♠❡♥t♦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽
✺✳✷ ❊✈♦❧✉çã♦ ❞❛s ▼é❞✐❛s ❞❛s ❱❛r✐á✈❡✐s ❞❡ ❘❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ♣♦r ❙t❛t✉s ❞❡ ❚r❛t❛♠❡♥t♦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵
✻✳✶ ❊❢❡✐t♦ ❞❡ ❚r❛t❛♠❡♥t♦ s♦❜r❡ ◆♦t❛s ❡ ❋r❡q✉ê♥❝✐❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶
✻✳✷ ❊❢❡✐t♦s ❞❡ ❚r❛t❛♠❡♥t♦ ❍❡t❡r♦❣ê♥❡♦s s♦❜r❡ ❉❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦ ❡♠ ▼❛t❡♠át✐❝❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✸
✻✳✸ ❊❢❡✐t♦s ❞❡ ❚r❛t❛♠❡♥t♦ ❍❡t❡r♦❣ê♥❡♦s s♦❜r❡ ❉❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦ ❡♠ ❈✐ê♥❝✐❛s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹
✻✳✹ ❊❢❡✐t♦s ❞❡ ❚r❛t❛♠❡♥t♦ ❍❡t❡r♦❣ê♥❡♦s s♦❜r❡ ❉❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦ ❡♠ P♦rt✉❣✉ês ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹
Sumário
1 Introdução 1
2 Revisão de Literatura 3
3 Programa Cartão Família Carioca 5
4 Metodologia 6
5 Dados 7
6 Resultados 11
7 Conclusão 16
Capítulo 1
Introdução
◆♦s ❛♥♦s r❡❝❡♥t❡s✱ é ❝r❡s❝❡♥t❡ ♦ ✐♥t❡r❡ss❡ ❞❡ ❡❞✉❝❛❞♦r❡s ❡ ❢♦r♠✉❧❛❞♦r❡s ❞❡ ♣♦❧ít✐❝❛ s♦❜r❡ ♦ ♣❛♣❡❧ ❞❡ ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈♦s s♦❜r❡ ❡❞✉❝❛çã♦✳ ◆♦ ▼é①✐❝♦✱ ♣❛✐s ❡ ✜❧❤♦s ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥t❡s ❞♦ Pr♦❣r❡s❛ ♣♦❞❡♠ r❡❝❡❜❡r ♣rê♠✐♦s ❡♠ ❞✐♥❤❡✐r♦ ♣♦r ❢r❡q✉ê♥❝✐❛ ❡s❝♦❧❛r ❡ ❝❤❡❝❦✲✉♣s r❡❣✉❧❛r❡s✳ ◆♦ ❑❡♥②❛ ❡ ❡♠ ■sr❛❡❧✱ ♣❛❣❛♠❡♥t♦s ❢♦r❛♠ ❢❡✐t♦s ❜❛s❡❛❞♦s ❡♠ ♥♦t❛s ❞♦s ❡st✉❞❛♥t❡s ❡♠ t❡st❡s ♣❛❞r♦♥✐③❛❞♦s ❡✱ ♥♦ P❛ís ❞❡ ●❛❧❡s✱ ❊s❝ó❝✐❛ ❡ ■r❧❛♥❞❛ ❞♦ ◆♦rt❡✱ ❡st✉❞❛♥t❡s ❜❡♥❡✜❝✐❛❞♦s ♣❡❧♦ ❊▼❆ r❡❝❡❜❡♠ ♣♦r ❢r❡q✉❡♥t❛r ✶✵✵✪ ❞❛s ❛✉❧❛s ❞❡ ❝✉rs♦s ❞❡ ❣r❛❞✉❛çã♦✳ ◆♦s ❊❯❆✱ ❡st✉❞❛♥t❡s ❞♦ t❡r❝❡✐r♦ ❛♦ s❡①t♦ ❛♥♦s ❞❡ ❈♦s❤♦❝t♦♥✱ ❖❤✐♦✱ r❡❝❡❜✐❛♠ ♣rê♠✐♦s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r♦s q✉❛♥❞♦ ❡①✐t♦s♦s ❡♠ t❡st❡s ❡st❛❞✉❛✐s ♣❛❞r♦♥✐③❛❞♦s ♦❜r✐❣❛tór✐♦s✳
◆♦ ❇r❛s✐❧✱ ♦ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛ ❇♦❧s❛ ❋❛♠í❧✐❛ ❞♦ ❣♦✈❡r♥♦ ❢❡❞❡r❛❧ r❡❛❧✐③❛✱ ❞❡s❞❡ ✷✵✵✸✱ ♣❛❣❛♠❡♥t♦s ♠❡♥s❛✐s ❛ ❢❛♠í❧✐❛s ❡♠ s✐t✉❛çã♦ ❞❡ ❡①tr❡♠❛ ♣♦❜r❡③❛✱ ❝♦♠ ♣❛r❝❡❧❛s ❛❞✐❝✐♦♥❛✐s ♣♦r ❝r✐❛♥ç❛ q✉❡ s❡ ❡♥❝♦♥tr❛ ♥❛ ❡s❝♦❧❛ ❡ q✉❡ ❛♣r❡s❡♥t❡ ❢r❡q✉ê♥❝✐❛ ♠í♥✐♠❛ ❞❡ ✽✺✪✱ ❛❧é♠ ❞♦ ❝✉♠♣r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❞♦ ❝❛❧❡♥❞ár✐♦ ✈❛❝✐♥❛❧✳
◆♦ ✜♠ ❞❡ ✷✵✶✵✱ ♦ ♠✉♥✐❝í♣✐♦ ❞♦ ❘✐♦ ❞❡ ❏❛♥❡✐r♦ ❝r✐♦✉ ♦ ❈❛rtã♦ ❋❛♠í❧✐❛ ❈❛r✐♦❝❛ ✭❈❋❈✮✱ ♣r♦✲ ❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ tr❛♥s❢❡rê♥❝✐❛ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ ❞❡ r❡♥❞❛✳ ❋❛♠í❧✐❛s ✐♥❝❧✉í❞❛s ♥♦ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛ r❡❝❡❜❡♠ ✉♠ ❜❡♥❡❢í❝✐♦ q✉❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❛ ❛ r❡♥❞❛ ❞♦♠✐❝✐❧✐❛r ♠❡♥s❛❧ ♣❡r ❝❛♣✐t❛ ❡st✐♠❛❞❛ ❛té ♦ ♥í✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❘✩✶✵✽✱✵✵✳ ❆❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ ❡st✉❞❛♥t❡s ❞♦ s❡❣✉♥❞♦ ❛♦ ♥♦♥♦ ❛♥♦s ✐♥s❝r✐t♦s ♥♦ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛ ❡ ♠❛tr✐❝✉❧❛❞♦s ❡♠ ❡s❝♦❧❛s ❞♦ ♠✉♥✐❝í♣✐♦✱ ❝♦♠ ❢r❡q✉ê♥❝✐❛ ♠í♥✐♠❛ ❞❡ ✾✵✪ ❞❛s ❛✉❧❛s✱ ❝✉❥♦s ♣❛✐s ❛t❡♥❞❛♠ ❛ r❡✉♥✐õ❡s ❜✐♠❡str❛✐s ❡ ❝♦♠ ♥♦t❛s ❛❧t❛s ♦✉ s✉❜st❛♥❝✐❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ♠❡❧❤♦r❡s q✉❡ ❛s ❛♥t❡r✐♦r❡s ❡♠ t❡st❡s ♣❛❞r♦♥✐✲ ③❛❞♦s r❡❝❡❜❡♠ ✉♠ ♣rê♠✐♦ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r♦ ♥♦ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ❘✩✺✵✱✵✵✳ ❖s ❡①❛♠❡s sã♦ r❡❛❧✐③❛❞♦s ❛ ❝❛❞❛ ❞♦✐s ♠❡s❡s✱ ♥✉♠ t♦t❛❧ ❞❡ q✉❛tr♦ ♣♦r ❛♥♦ ❧❡t✐✈♦✱ ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ q✉❡ ✉♠ ú♥✐❝♦ ❛❧✉♥♦ ♣♦ss❛ ❛❝✉♠✉❧❛r ❛té ❘✩✷✵✵✱✵✵ ❡♠ ♣rê♠✐♦s ♥✉♠ ♠❡s♠♦ ❛♥♦ ❧❡t✐✈♦✳
❆ ❧ó❣✐❝❛ ♣♦r trás ❞❡st❡s ♣❛❣❛♠❡♥t♦s é ❛ s❡❣✉✐♥t❡✿ ❡♠❜♦r❛ ♦ ❞❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦ ❛❝❛❞ê♠✐❝♦ ❞✉r❛♥t❡ ❡st❛s sér✐❡s ✐♥✐❝✐❛✐s ♣♦ss❛ ❛❢❡t❛r s✉❜st❛♥❝✐❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ♦ s✉❝❡ss♦ ❞♦ ✐♥❞✐✈í❞✉♦ ♥♦ ❧♦♥❣♦ ♣r❛③♦✱ ❛✉♠❡♥✲ t❛♥❞♦ s✉❛s ❝❤❛♥❝❡s ❞❡ ❢❛③❡r ✉♠❛ ❝✉rs♦ s✉♣❡r✐♦r ♦✉ ❞❡ ♦❜t❡r ♠❡❧❤♦r❡s ♦♣♦rt✉♥✐❞❛❞❡s ❞❡ tr❛❜❛❧❤♦ ❬? ❪✱ t❛✐s ❜❡♥❡❢í❝✐♦s ♣❛ss❛♠ ❞❡s❛♣❡r❝❡❜✐❞♦s ♣♦r ♠✉✐t♦s ❛❧✉♥♦s✳ ❆❧é♠ ❞✐ss♦✱ ❝r✐❛♥ç❛s sã♦ ✐♠♣❛❝✐✲ ❡♥t❡s✱ ❡ ♠✉✐t♦s ❡st✉❞♦s ❡♠ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❛✱ ♣s✐❝♦❧♦❣✐❛ ❡ ❡❞✉❝❛çã♦ ❞♦❝✉♠❡♥t❛♠ ♦ q✉❛♥t♦ ❝r✐❛♥ç❛s sã♦ ♠❛✐s ♠♦t✐✈❛❞❛s ♣♦r r❡❝♦♠♣❡♥s❛s ❞❡ ❝✉rt♦ ♣r❛③♦ q✉❡ ♣❡❧❛s ❞❡ ❧♦♥❣♦ ♣r❛③♦✱ ❡st❛s ♠❡♥♦s t❛♥❣í✈❡✐s ❬? ? ? ❪✳
✷
❛ s✐t✉❛çã♦ ❛❞❡q✉❛❞❛ ♣❛r❛ ❛ ❛✈❛❧✐❛çã♦ ❞♦ ✐♠♣❛❝t♦ ❞♦s ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈♦s ✐♥tr♦❞✉③✐❞♦s ♣❡❧♦ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛ s♦❜r❡ ✐♥❞✐✈í❞✉♦s ❞❡s♣r✐✈✐❧❡❣✐❛❞♦s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r❛♠❡♥t❡✳
❚❡♦r✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ♦s ❡❢❡✐t♦s ❞♦s ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈♦s ✐♥tr♦❞✉③✐❞♦s ♣♦❞❡♠ s❡r ❛♠❜í❣✉♦s✳ ❈❛s♦ ❛ ❢✉♥çã♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❞✉çã♦ ❡❞✉❝❛❝✐♦♥❛❧ ❛♣r❡s❡♥t❡ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡s ❝♦♠♣❧❡♠❡♥t❛r✐❞❛❞❡s ♦✉ ❡st✉❞❛♥t❡s✴r❡s♣♦♥sá✈❡✐s s❡❥❛♠ ❝❛r❡♥t❡s ❞❡ ♠♦t✐✈❛çã♦✱ ❞❡s❝♦♥t❡♠ ♦ ❢✉t✉r♦ ❞r❛♠❛t✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ ♦✉ ♥ã♦ t❡♥❤❛♠ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛çõ❡s ♣r❡❝✐s❛s s♦❜r❡ ♦s r❡t♦r♥♦s ❡❞✉❝❛❝✐♦♥❛✐s✱ ♣r♦✈❡r ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈♦s ♣♦❞❡ ♠❡❧❤♦r❛r ♦ ❞❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦ ❞♦s ❛❧✉✲ ♥♦s✳ ◆♦ ❡♥t❛♥t♦✱ ❝❛s♦ ❡st✉❞❛♥t❡s s❡❥❛♠ ✐♥❝❛♣❛③❡s ❞❡ tr❛♥s❢♦r♠❛r ❡s❢♦rç♦s ❡♠ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s✱ ❡♥tã♦ ❛ ✐♥tr♦❞✉çã♦ ❞❡st❡s ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈♦s ♣♦❞❡ ♣r♦❞✉③✐r ♣♦✉❝♦s ✐♠♣❛❝t♦s✳ ❋✐♥❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ ❝❛s♦ ♦s ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈♦s ❞✐st♦rç❛♠ ❛ ❛❧♦❝❛çã♦ ❞❡ ❡s❢♦rç♦ ❞❡ ❡q✉✐❧í❜r✐♦ ♣❛r❛ ❡st✉❞❛♥t❡s ♦✉ ♣❛✐s ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ♣r❡❥✉❞✐❝✐❛❧ ♣❛r❛ ♦ ❞❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦ ❞♦ ❛❧✉♥♦✱ ❛ ✐♥tr♦❞✉çã♦ ❞♦s ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈♦s ♣♦❞❡ ❣❡r❛r r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ♥❡❣❛t✐✈♦s ❬? ❪✳ ❆❧é♠ ❞✐ss♦✱ ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈♦s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r♦s ♣♦❞❡♠ r❡❞✉③✐r ❛ ♠♦t✐✈❛çã♦ ✐♥trí♥s❡❝❛ ❞♦s ❛❧✉♥♦s✳ ◗✉❛❧ ❞♦s ❡❢❡✐t♦s ❛❝✐♠❛ ❞♦♠✐♥❛rá é ✐♥❝❡rt♦✳ ❆s ❡st✐♠❛t✐✈❛s ♦❜t✐❞❛s sã♦ ♠❡❞✐❞❛s ❞♦s ❡❢❡✐t♦s ❝♦♠❜✐♥❛❞♦s ❞❡st❡s ❡❧❡♠❡♥t♦s ❡ ❞❡ ♦✉tr♦s ♣♦t❡♥❝✐❛✐s ❝❛♥❛✐s ❞❡ ✐♥✢✉ê♥❝✐❛✳
Capítulo 2
Revisão de Literatura
❆ ✐❞é✐❛ ❞❡ ❛❧✐✈✐❛r ❛ ♣♦❜r❡③❛ ♣r♦✈❡♥❞♦ ♣❛❣❛♠❡♥t♦s ❞✐r❡t♦s ❛ ❢❛♠í❧✐❛s ❡ ✐♥❞✐✈í❞✉♦s ❞❡s♣r✐✈✐❧❡❣✐❛❞♦s ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ q✉❡ s❡ ❡♥❣❛❥❛ss❡♠ ❡♠ ❛t✐✈✐❞❛❞❡s ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛❞❛s ❜❡♥é✜❝❛s ♣❛r❛ ♦s ♣ró♣r✐♦s ♣♦❜r❡s ❡ ♣❛r❛ ❛ s♦❝✐❡❞❛❞❡ ❝♦♠♦ ✉♠ t♦❞♦ ♥ã♦ é r❡❝❡♥t❡✳ ◆♦ ✐♥í❝✐♦ ❞♦ sé❝✉❧♦ ❳■❳✱ ♣♦r ❡①❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❘♦❜❡rt ❖✇❡♥ ❡♠ ◆❡✇ ▲❛♥❛r❦✱ ❊s❝ó❝✐❛✱ ❝r✐♦✉ ✉♠❛ ❝♦♠✉♥✐❞❛❞❡ ♥❛ q✉❛❧ ❢❛♠í❧✐❛s r❡❝❡❜✐❛♠ ♠♦r❛❞✐❛ s✉❜s✐✲ ❞✐❛❞❛ ❡ ♦✉tr♦s ❜❡♥❡❢í❝✐♦s ❝❛s♦ ❡✈✐t❛ss❡♠ ❜❡❜✐❞❛s ❛❧❝♦ó❧✐❝❛s ❡ ♦✉tr♦s ❝♦♠♣♦rt❛♠❡♥t♦s ♥❡❣❛t✐✈♦s ❬? ❪✳ ❊♠ ✶✽✷✵✱ ❛ ❝✐❞❛❞❡ ❞❡ ◆♦✈❛ ❨♦r❦ ✐♥tr♦❞✉③✐✉ ✉♠ s✐st❡♠❛ ❞❡ ♣rê♠✐♦s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r♦s ♣❛r❛ ❡st✉❞❛♥t❡s q✉❡ ❛♣r❡s❡♥t❛ss❡♠ ❜♦♠ ❞❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦ ❡s❝♦❧❛r ❬? ❪✳
Pr♦❣r❛♠❛s ♠❛✐s r❡❝❡♥t❡s ❡♥✈♦❧✈❡♥❞♦ ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈♦s s♦❜r❡ ❛ ❡❞✉❝❛çã♦ ❞❡ ❥♦✈❡♥s ❡ ❝r✐❛♥ç❛s ♣♦❞❡♠ s❡r ❡♥❝♦♥tr❛❞♦s ❞✐ss❡♠✐♥❛❞♦s ♣♦r ❞✐✈❡rs♦s ♣❛ís❡s✳ ❬? ❪ ❛✈❛❧✐❛ ✉♠ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛ r❛♥❞♦♠✐③❛❞♦ q✉❡ ♣❛❣❛ ❞❡ ❛❝♦r❞♦ ❝♦♠ ❛ ♣❡r❢♦r♠❛♥❝❡ ❞♦s ❛❧✉♥♦s ❞♦ t❡r❝❡✐r♦ ❛♦ s❡①t♦ ❛♥♦s ♥❛ ❝✐❞❛❞❡ ♥♦rt❡✲❛♠❡r✐❝❛♥❛ ❞❡ ❈♦s❤♦❝t♦♥✱ ❖❤✐♦✱ ✉♠❛ ❝♦♠✉♥✐❞❛❞❡ ♣♦❜r❡ ❡♠ ❆♣♣❛❧❛❝❤✐❛✳ ❖s ❡st✉❞❛♥t❡s r❡❛❧✐③❛r❛♠ t❡st❡s ❡♠ ❝✐♥❝♦ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥t❡s ♠❛tér✐❛s✿ ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝❛✱ ❧❡✐t✉r❛✱ ❡s❝r✐t❛✱ ❝✐ê♥❝✐❛s ❡ ❡st✉❞♦s s♦❝✐❛✐s✳ ❈r✐❛♥ç❛s ❡❧❡❣í✈❡✐s r❡❝❡❜✐❛♠ ❯❙✩✶✺ ♣♦r t❡st❡ ❡♠ q✉❡ ❛t✐♥❣✐ss❡♠ ♥í✈❡✐s ♣ré✲❡st❛❜❡❧❡❝✐❞♦s✱ ❝♦♠✉♥s ❛ t♦❞♦s ♦s ❛❧✉♥♦s✳ ◆♦ ❝❛s♦ ❞❡ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ♠❛✐s ❡❧❡✈❛❞♦s✱ ♦s ♣rê♠✐♦s ♣♦❞❡r✐❛♠ ❝❤❡❣❛r ❛ ❯❙✩✷✵ ♣♦r t❡st❡✳ ❬? ❪ r❡♣♦rt❛ ✉♠ ❡❢❡✐t♦ ♣♦s✐t✐✈♦ ❞❡ ✵✳✶✺ ❞❡s✈✐♦ ♣❛❞rã♦ s♦❜r❡ ❛s ♥♦t❛s ❞❡ ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝❛ ❡ ❡❢❡✐t♦s ✐♥s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥t❡s s♦❜r❡ ❛s q✉❛tr♦ ❞❡♠❛✐s ♠❛tér✐❛s✳
❆✐♥❞❛ ♥♦s ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❬? ❪ ❡①❛♠✐♥❛ ♦ ❡❢❡✐t♦ ❞❡ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥t❡s ❡str✉t✉r❛s ❞❡ ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈♦s s♦❜r❡ ❡st✉❞❛♥t❡s ❞❡ ❡s❝♦❧❛s ♣r✐♠ár✐❛s ❡♠ ❉❛❧❧❛s✱ ◆♦✈❛ ❨♦r❦ ❡ ❈❤✐❝❛❣♦✱ ❞✐str✐t♦s ♥♦s q✉❛✐s ❛ ♠❛✐♦r✐❛ ❞♦s ❡st✉❞❛♥t❡s sã♦ ♣r♦✈❡♥✐❡♥t❡s ❞❡ ❢❛♠í❧✐❛s ❞❡s♣r✐✈✐❧❡❣✐❛❞❛s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r❛♠❡♥t❡✳ ❚♦❞♦s ♦s três ❡①✲ ♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦s ❢♦r❛♠ r❛♥❞♦♠✐③❛❞♦s ❛ ♥í✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❡s❝♦❧❛ ❡ ❝♦♥❞✉③✐❞♦s ❡♥tr❡ ✷✵✵✼ ❡ ✷✵✵✾✳ ❊♠ ❉❛❧❧❛s✱ ♦s ❛❧✉♥♦s r❡❝❡❜❡r❛♠ ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈♦s ♣❛r❛ ❧❡r ❧✐✈r♦s ❡ r❡❛❧✐③❛r❡♠ t❡st❡s q✉❡ ❛t❡st❛ss❡♠ ❛ ❝♦♠♣r❡❡♥sã♦ ❞♦ ♠❛t❡r✐❛❧✱ ♠❛s ♦s ❡❢❡✐t♦s s♦❜r❡ ♦ ❞❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦ ❡♠ t❡st❡s ❞❡ ❧❡✐t✉r❛ é ❡st❛t✐st✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ ✐♥s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥t❡✳ ❊♠ ◆♦✈❛ ❨♦r❦✱ ♦s ❡st✉❞❛♥t❡s ❢♦r❛♠ ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈❛❞♦s s♦❜r❡ ✉♠❛ sér✐❡ ❞❡ t❡st❡s ♣❛❞r♦♥✐③❛❞♦s✳ P♦r ❝❛❞❛ t❡st❡✱ ♦s ❛❧✉♥♦s ♣♦❞❡r✐❛♠ r❡❝❡❜❡r ❞❡ ❯❙✩✺ ❛ ❯❙✩✷✺✱ ❛ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡r ❞♦ ❞❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦✱ ❡ ♦s ❡❢❡✐t♦s ❞❡ tr❛t❛♠❡♥t♦ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦s sã♦ ♥♦✈❛♠❡♥t❡ ❡st❛t✐st✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ ♥✉❧♦s✳ ❊♠ ❈❤✐❝❛❣♦✱ ❛❧✉♥♦s r❡❝❡❜❡r❛♠ ♣rê♠✐♦s ❞❡ ❛❝♦r❞♦ ❝♦♠ ❛s ♥♦t❛s ❡s❝♦❧❛r❡s✱ ♦ q✉❡ ♥ã♦ ♣r♦❞✉③✐✉ ❡❢❡✐t♦s s♦❜r❡ ♦ ❞❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦ ❡♠ ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝❛ ♦✉ ❧❡✐t✉r❛✳
❊♠ ❞❡③❡♠❜r♦ ❞❡ ✷✵✵✵✱ ♦ ▼✐♥✐stér✐♦ ❞❛ ❊❞✉❝❛çã♦ ❞❡ ■sr❛❡❧ s❡❧❡❝✐♦♥♦✉✱ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ✹✵ ❡s❝♦❧❛s ❝♦♠ ❢r❛❝♦ ❞❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦ ❡♠ ✉♠❛ sér✐❡ ❞❡ t❡st❡s ✉t✐❧✐③❛❞♦s ♣❛r❛ ❛ ♦❜t❡♥çã♦ ❞♦ ❇❛❣r✉t✱ ❝❡rt✐✜❝❛çã♦ r❡q✉❡r✐❞❛ ♣❛r❛ ♦ ✐♥❣r❡ss♦ ❞♦ ❛❧✉♥♦ ♥❛ ❢❛❝✉❧❞❛❞❡✳ ❬? ❪ ❛✈❛❧✐❛♠ ♦ ✐♠♣❛❝t♦ ❞❡ ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈♦s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r♦s ♦❢❡r❡❝✐❞♦s ♣❛r❛ ❛❧✉♥♦s ❞❛s ❡s❝♦❧❛s s❡❧❡❝✐♦♥❛❞❛s✱ ❡❧❡❣í✈❡✐s ❛ ♣rê♠✐♦s ❞❡ ❛té ❯❙✩✷✱✹✵✵✱ ❡ ❡♥❝♦♥tr❛♠ ❡❢❡✐t♦s ♣♦s✐t✐✈♦s s♦❜r❡ ❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ❝❡rt✐✜❝❛çã♦ ❞❡ ♠❡♥✐♥❛s✳
✹
❯♠ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛ r❛♥❞♦♠✐③❛❞♦ ♣❛r❛ ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈❛r ♦ ❞❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦ ❡s❝♦❧❛r ❞❡ ♠❡♥✐♥❛s ❛tr❛✈és ❞❡ ♣rê♠✐♦s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r♦s ❢♦✐ ❞❡s❡♥✈♦❧✈✐❞♦ ♥♦ ❑❡♥②❛ ❡ ❛✈❛❧✐❛❞♦ ♣♦r ❬? ❪✱ ♦s q✉❛✐s ❝♦♥❝❧✉❡♠ ❤❛✈❡r ❣r❛♥❞❡s ❡❢❡✐t♦s ♣♦s✐t✐✈♦s ♣❛r❛ ♠❡♥✐♥❛s✱ ❛❧é♠ ❞❡ s♣✐❧❧♦✈❡rs ♣❛r❛ ♠❡♥✐♥♦s ❡♠ ✉♠ ❞♦s ❞♦✐s ❞✐str✐t♦s ❛♥❛❧✐s❛❞♦s✳
◆❛❝✐♦♥❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ ❬? ❪ ❛✈❛❧✐❛♠ ♦ ✐♠♣❛❝t♦ ❞♦ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛ ❢❡❞❡r❛❧ ❇♦❧s❛ ❋❛♠í❧✐❛ s♦❜r❡ ♦ ♣r♦❣r❡ss♦ ❞❛s ❝r✐❛♥ç❛s ♥❛ ❡s❝♦❧❛✳ ❋♦r❛♠ ✉s❛❞♦s ✽ ❛♥♦s ❞❡ ❞❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❝❡♥s♦ ❡s❝♦❧❛r ✭✶✾✾✽ ❛ ✷✵✵✺✮ ♣❛r❛ ❝r✐❛r ✉♠ ♣❛✐♥❡❧ ❞❡ ❡s❝♦❧❛s ♣ú❜❧✐❝❛s ❡ ❢♦r❛♠ ❝♦♠♣❛r❛❞❛s ♠✉❞❛♥ç❛s ♥❛s t❛①❛s ❞❡ ♠❛trí❝✉❧❛✱ ❡✈❛sã♦ ❡s❝♦❧❛r ❡ r❡♣❡tê♥❝✐❛ ❡♥tr❡ ❡s❝♦❧❛s ❞❡ ♠✉♥✐❝í♣✐♦s q✉❡ ❛❞♦t❛r❛♠ ♦ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛ ❡♠ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥t❡s ✐♥st❛♥t❡s✳ ❖s ❛✉t♦r❡s ❝♦♥❝❧✉❡♠ q✉❡ ♦ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛ ❛✉♠❡♥t♦✉ ❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ♠❛trí❝✉❧❛ ❡♠ ✺✳✺ ♣♦♥t♦s ♣❡r❝❡♥t✉❛✐s ♣❛r❛ ✶➸ ❛♦ ✹➸ ❛♥♦ ❡ ❡♠ ✻✳✺ ♣♦♥t♦s ♣❡r❝❡♥t✉❛✐s ♣❛r❛ ✺➸ ❛♦ ✽➸ ❛♥♦✳ ❆ r❡❞✉çã♦ ❡♠ ❡✈❛sã♦ ❡s❝♦❧❛r ❢♦✐ ❞❡ ✵✳✺ ❡ ✵✳✹ ♣♦♥t♦ ♣❡r❝❡♥t✉❛❧✱ r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ❡ ♦ ♣❡r❝❡♥t✉❛❧ ❞❡ ❛❧✉♥♦s ❛♣r♦✈❛❞♦s ❛✉♠❡♥t♦✉ ❡♠ ✵✳✾ ♥❛s ♣r✐♠❡✐r❛s sér✐❡s ❡ ❡♠ ✵✳✸ ♥❛s ú❧t✐♠❛s✳ ❈♦♥s✐❞❡r❛♥❞♦ q✉❡ ❛♣❡♥❛s ✹✵✪ ❞❛s ❝r✐❛♥ç❛s ❜r❛s✐❧❡✐r❛s ❡♥❝♦♥tr❛♠✲s❡ ♠❛tr✐❝✉❧❛❞❛s ♥♦ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛✱ ♦s ❛✉t♦r❡s ❝♦♥❝❧✉❡♠ q✉❡ ♦ ❡❢❡✐t♦ ❞❡ tr❛t❛♠❡♥t♦ s♦❜r❡ ♦s tr❛t❛❞♦s é✱ ♥❛ ✈❡r❞❛❞❡✱ ❡q✉✐✈❛❧❡♥t❡ ❛ ❞✉❛s ✈❡③❡s ❡ ♠❡✐❛ ♦ r❡♣♦rt❛❞♦ ❛❝✐♠❛✳
❖ ❡st✉❞♦ q✉❡ ♠❛✐s s❡ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛ ❝♦♠ ❛q✉❡❧❡ ❛q✉✐ ❛♣r❡s❡♥t❛❞♦ é ❬? ❪✱ ♥♦ q✉❛❧ é ❛✈❛❧✐❛❞♦ ✉♠ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐③❛❞♦ ❡♠ ✺✵ ❡s❝♦❧❛s ❞❡ ❜❛✐①♦ ❞❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦ ❡♠ ❍♦✉st♦♥✱ ❚❡①❛s✳ ❊st✉❞❛♥t❡s r❡❝❡❜❡r❛♠ ♣♦r t❛r❡❢❛s ❞❡ ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝❛ r❡❛❧✐③❛❞❛s ❡♠ ✉♠ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ ❝♦♠♣✉t❛❞♦r✱ ❡ s❡✉s ♣❛✐s t❛♠❜é♠ ❡r❛♠ ♣r❡♠✐❛❞♦s à ♠❡❞✐❞❛ q✉❡ s❡✉s ✜❧❤♦s ❝✉♠♣r✐❛♠ ♦s ❞❡✈❡r❡s✳ ❆❧é♠ ❞✐ss♦✱ ♦s ♣❛✐s r❡❝❡❜✐❛♠ ♣♦r ❢r❡q✉❡♥t❛r r❡✉♥✐õ❡s ❝♦♠ ♦s ♣r♦❢❡ss♦r❡s✳ P♦r ✜♠✱ ♦s ♣r♦❢❡ss♦r❡s ❡r❛♠ r❡❝♦♠♣❡♥s❛❞♦s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r❛♠❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❛❝♦r❞♦ ❝♦♠ ♦ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ r❡✉♥✐õ❡s r❡❛❧✐③❛❞❛s ❡ ❝♦♠ ♦ ❞❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦ ❞❡ s❡✉s ❛❧✉♥♦s ❡♠ t❡st❡s ♣❛❞r♦♥✐③❛❞♦s✳
❊♠❜♦r❛ ❡st✉❞❛♥t❡s ❞♦ ❣r✉♣♦ ❞❡ tr❛t❛♠❡♥t♦ ❤❛❥❛♠ r❡❛❧✐③❛❞♦ ♠❛✐s t❛r❡❢❛s ❡ s❡✉s ♣❛✐s t❡♥❤❛♠ ❢r❡q✉❡♥t❛❞♦ ♦ ❞♦❜r♦ ❞❡ r❡✉♥✐õ❡s q✉❡ ♦s ♣❛✐s ❞♦s ❞❡♠❛✐s ❛❧✉♥♦s✱ ♦ ❞❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦ ❞♦s ❡st✉❞❛♥t❡s ♥♦s t❡st❡s ♣❛❞r♦♥✐③❛❞♦s ❞❡ ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝❛ é s✐♠✐❧❛r ♣❛r❛ ♦s ❞♦✐s ❣r✉♣♦s✱ ❡ ♠♦str❛✲s❡ ♣✐♦r ♥❛s ♣r♦✈❛s ❞❡ ❧❡✐t✉r❛✳ ❆♣❡♥❛s ❛❧✉♥♦s q✉❡ ❥á ❛♣r❡s❡♥t❛✈❛♠ ✉♠ ❜♦♠ ❞❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦ ❛❝❛❞ê♠✐❝♦ ❢♦r❛♠ ✐♠♣❛❝t❛❞♦s ♣♦s✐t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡ ❡♠ ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝❛ s❡♠ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t❛r❡♠ ♣❡r❞❛s ❡♠ ❧❡✐t✉r❛✳
Capítulo 3
Programa Cartão Família Carioca
❖ ❈❛rtã♦ ❋❛♠í❧✐❛ ❈❛r✐♦❝❛ ✭❈❋❈✮ é ✉♠ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ tr❛♥s❢❡rê♥❝✐❛ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ ❞❡ r❡♥❞❛ ❞♦ ♠✉♥✐❝í♣✐♦ ❞♦ ❘✐♦ ❞❡ ❏❛♥❡✐r♦ ❝r✐❛❞♦ ❛♦ ✜♥❛❧ ❞♦ ❛♥♦ ❞❡ ✷✵✶✵✳ ❊♥tr❡ ♦s ♣r✐♥❝✐♣❛✐s ♦❜❥❡t✐✈♦s ❞♦ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛ ❡stã♦ ❛ ❣❛r❛♥t✐❛ ❞❡ ♠❛✐♦r ✐❣✉❛❧❞❛❞❡ ❞❡ ♦♣♦rt✉♥✐❞❛❞❡s ♣❛r❛ ♦s ❥♦✈❡♥s ❡ ❝r✐❛♥ç❛s✱ r❡❞✉çã♦ ❞♦s ♥í✈❡✐s ❞❡ ♣♦❜r❡③❛ ❡ ✐♥❞✐❣ê♥❝✐❛✱ ❡ ❛ ♠❡❧❤♦r✐❛ ❞♦ ❞❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦ ❡s❝♦❧❛r ❞♦s ❛❧✉♥♦s ❞❛s ❡s❝♦❧❛s ♣ú❜❧✐❝❛s✳
❆ ✜♠ ❞❡ ✐♥t❡❣r❛r ❛s ♣♦❧ít✐❝❛s ♠✉♥✐❝✐♣❛✐s ❝♦♠ ❛q✉❡❧❛s ❞❡ ♦✉tr❛s ❡s❢❡r❛s ❞♦ ❣♦✈❡r♥♦✱ ♣♦t❡♥❝✐✲ ❛❧✐③❛♥❞♦ ♦ ✐♠♣❛❝t♦ ♣❛r❛ ❛ ♣♦♣✉❧❛çã♦✱ ♦ ❈❋❈ ❢♦✐ ♦❢❡r❡❝✐❞♦ ❛♣❡♥❛s ❛♦s ❜❡♥❡✜❝✐ár✐♦s ❞♦ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ tr❛♥s❢❡rê♥❝✐❛ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ ❞♦ ❣♦✈❡r♥♦ ❢❡❞❡r❛❧✱ ♦ ❇♦❧s❛ ❋❛♠í❧✐❛✳
❯♠❛ ❡①✐❣ê♥❝✐❛ ♣❛r❛ ❛ ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛çã♦ ❞❛ ❢❛♠í❧✐❛ ♥♦ ❈❋❈ é ❛ r❡♥❞❛ ❡st✐♠❛❞❛ ♣❡r ❝❛♣✐t❛ ✐♥❢❡r✐♦r ❛ ❘✩✶✵✽✱✵✵✳ P❛r❛ ❡❢❡✐t♦ ❞❡ ❝á❧❝✉❧♦ ❞❛ r❡♥❞❛ ❢❛♠✐❧✐❛r ♣❡r ❝❛♣✐t❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛♠✲s❡ ♥♦ ♠á①✐♠♦ ✉♠ ❛❞✉❧t♦ ❡ três ❝r✐❛♥ç❛s ♠❡♥♦r❡s ❞❡ ❞❡③♦✐t♦ ❛♥♦s ❞❡ ✐❞❛❞❡ ♣♦r ❢❛♠í❧✐❛✳ ❚♦❞❛s ❛s ❢❛♠í❧✐❛s ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥t❡s r❡❝❡❜❡♠ ❜❡♥❡❢í❝✐♦s ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ❛ t❡r❡♠ s✉❛s r❡♥❞❛s ♣❡r ❝❛♣✐t❛ ❡st✐♠❛❞❛s ❡❧❡✈❛❞❛s ❛♦ ♥í✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❘✩✶✵✽✱✵✵✱ s❡♥❞♦ ♦ ❜❡♥❡❢í❝✐♦ ♠í♥✐♠♦ ❞❡ ❘✩✷✵✱✵✵✳
❖s ♣❛❣❛♠❡♥t♦s✱ ❢❡✐t♦s ♣r❡❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛❧♠❡♥t❡ à ♠✉❧❤❡r✱ ✈❡r✐✜❝❛♠✲s❡ ♠❡♥s❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ❡ ♣❡r♠❛♥❡❝❡♠ ❧✐❜❡r❛❞♦s s❛❧✈♦ ♥❛ ♦❝♦rrê♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ❝♦♠♣r♦✈❛çã♦ ❞❡ ❢r❛✉❞❡✱ ❞❡s❧✐❣❛♠❡♥t♦ ♣♦r ❛t♦ ✈♦❧✉♥tár✐♦ ♦✉ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛çã♦ ❥✉❞✐❝✐❛❧✱ ❛❧t❡r❛çã♦ ❝❛❞❛str❛❧ q✉❡ ✐♠♣❧✐q✉❡ ✐♥❛❞❡q✉❛çã♦ às ❡①✐❣ê♥❝✐❛ ❞♦ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛✱ ♦✉ ❛✐♥❞❛ ❞❡s❝✉♠♣r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❞❛s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❧✐❞❛❞❡s ❞♦ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛✳ ◆❡st❡ ú❧t✐♠♦ ❝❛s♦✱ ♦s ♣❛❣❛♠❡♥t♦s sã♦ ❛✉t♦♠❛t✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ r❡st❛❜❡❧❡❝✐❞♦s ❞✐❛♥t❡ ❞❛ ✈♦❧t❛ ❞♦ ❝✉♠♣r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❞❛s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❧✐❞❛❞❡s✳
❈♦♥s✐❞❡r❛♠✲s❡ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❧✐❞❛❞❡s ❝✉♠✉❧❛t✐✈❛s ❞♦ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛ ❛ ❢r❡q✉ê♥❝✐❛ ❡s❝♦❧❛r ❜✐♠❡str❛❧ ♠í♥✐♠❛ ❞❡ ✾✵✪ ♣❛r❛ ❝r✐❛♥ç❛s ❡ ❛❞♦❧❡s❝❡♥t❡s ♠❡♥♦r❡s ❞❡ ❞❡③♦✐t♦ ❛♥♦s ❡ ❛ ♣r❡s❡♥ç❛ ❞❡ ✉♠ ❞♦s r❡s✲ ♣♦♥sá✈❡✐s ♥❛s r❡✉♥✐õ❡s ❜✐♠❡str❛✐s✳ ❖ ❞❡s❝✉♠♣r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ❛❧❣✉♠❛ ❞❡st❛s r❡❣r❛s ❡♠ ❞♦✐s ❜✐♠❡str❡s ❝♦♥s❡❝✉t✐✈♦s ❛❝❛rr❡t❛ ❛ s✉s♣❡♥sã♦ ❞♦s ♣❛❣❛♠❡♥t♦s✳
❆s ❢❛♠í❧✐❛s ❝♦♠ ❝r✐❛♥ç❛s ❡ ❛❞♦❧❡s❝❡♥t❡s ♠❛tr✐❝✉❧❛❞♦s ❡♠ ❡s❝♦❧❛s ♠✉♥✐❝✐♣❛✐s ❡ ❝✉rs❛♥❞♦ ♦ ✷➸ ❛♦ ✾➸ ❛♥♦s✱ ❞❡s❞❡ q✉❡ ❡♠ ❞✐❛ ❝♦♠ ❛s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❧✐❞❛❞❡s✱ sã♦ ❡❧❡❣í✈❡✐s ❛ ✉♠ ❜ô♥✉s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r♦ ❞❡ ❘✩✺✵✱✵✵✳ ❆s r❡❣r❛s q✉❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛♠ ❛ ❝♦♥❝❡ssã♦ ❞♦ ❜ô♥✉s ✈❛r✐❛♠ ❡♥tr❡ ❛s sér✐❡s ❡ ❛ ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛çã♦ ❞❛ ❡s❝♦❧❛ ❞♦ ❛❧✉♥♦ ♥♦ ♣r♦❥❡t♦ ❊s❝♦❧❛s ❞♦ ❆♠❛♥❤ã✱ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛ ❝r✐❛❞♦ ❡♠ ✷✵✵✾ ❡ q✉❡ t❡♠ ♣♦r ♦❜❥❡t✐✈♦ r❡❞✉③✐r ❛ ❡✈❛sã♦ ❡s❝♦❧❛r ❡ ♠❡❧❤♦r❛r ♦ ❞❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦ ❞❡ ❛❧✉♥♦s q✉❡ ♠♦r❛♠ ❡♠ ár❡❛s ❝♦♥✢❛❣r❛❞❛s ❞❛ ❝✐❞❛❞❡✳ ❆ ❝❛❞❛ ❜✐♠❡str❡ ♦s ❛❧✉♥♦s r❡❛❧✐③❛♠ ♣r♦✈❛s ❞❡ P♦rt✉❣✉ês✱ ❈✐ê♥❝✐❛s ❡ ▼❛t❡♠át✐❝❛ ❡ r❡❝❡❜❡♠ ♦ ♣rê♠✐♦ ❝❛s♦ s❡ ✈❡r✐✜q✉❡✿
❼ ♣❛r❛ ❛❧✉♥♦s ❞❡ ❊s❝♦❧❛s ❞♦ ❆♠❛♥❤ã ❡♥tr❡ ♦ ✷➸ ❡ ✺➸ ❛♥♦s ✭✶➸ ❝✐❝❧♦✮✱ ♥♦t❛ ♠í♥✐♠❛ ✹ ❡ ♠❡❧❤♦r❛ ❞❡ ✶✺✪ ❡♠ r❡❧❛çã♦ à ♥♦t❛ ✐♠❡❞✐❛t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❛♥t❡r✐♦r✱ ♦✉ ♥♦t❛ ❛❝✐♠❛ ❞❡ ✼✱✵✳
❼ ♣❛r❛ ❛❧✉♥♦s ❞❛s ❞❡♠❛✐s ❡s❝♦❧❛s ♥♦ ✶➸ ❝✐❝❧♦✱ ♥♦t❛ ♠í♥✐♠❛ ✹ ❡ ♠❡❧❤♦r❛ ❞❡ ✷✵✪ ❡♠ r❡❧❛çã♦ à ♥♦t❛ ✐♠❡❞✐❛t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❛♥t❡r✐♦r✱ ♦✉ ♥♦t❛ ❛❝✐♠❛ ❞❡ ✼✱✺✳
❼ ♣❛r❛ ❛❧✉♥♦s ❞❡ ❊s❝♦❧❛s ❞♦ ❆♠❛♥❤ã ❡♥tr❡ ♦ ✻➸ ❡ ✾➸ ❛♥♦s ✭✷➸ ❝✐❝❧♦✮✱ ♥♦t❛ ♠í♥✐♠❛ ✹ ❡ ♠❡❧❤♦r❛ ❞❡ ✶✺✪ ❡♠ r❡❧❛çã♦ à ♥♦t❛ ✐♠❡❞✐❛t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❛♥t❡r✐♦r✱ ♦✉ ♥♦t❛ ❛❝✐♠❛ ❞❡ ✻✱✵✳
Capítulo 4
Metodologia
❆ ❡str❛té❣✐❛ ❞❡ ✐❞❡♥t✐✜❝❛çã♦ ❡♠♣r❡❣❛❞❛ ♥❡st❡ ❡st✉❞♦ ❝♦♥s✐st❡ ♥❛ ❡①♣❧♦r❛çã♦ ❞❛ ✈❛r✐❛çã♦ t❡♠♣♦r❛❧ ❛♦ ♥í✈❡❧ ❞♦ ✐♥❞✐✈í❞✉♦ ♣❛r❛ ❝♦♥tr♦❧❛r ♣♦r ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛s ♥ã♦ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞❛s ✜①❛s ♥♦ t❡♠♣♦✱ ❝♦♠♦ ❡①♣♦st♦ ❡♠ ❬? ❪✳ ❙✉❛ ✈❛❧✐❞❛❞❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡ ❞❡ ❛s t❡♥❞ê♥❝✐❛s ❞❛ ✈❛r✐á✈❡❧ ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r❡ss❡ ♣❛r❛ ✐♥❞✐✈í❞✉♦s ❞♦s ❣r✉♣♦s ❝♦♥tr♦❧❡ ❡ tr❛t❛♠❡♥t♦ s❡r❡♠ ✐❣✉❛✐s ♥❛ ❛✉sê♥❝✐❛ ❞♦ tr❛t❛♠❡♥t♦✳
❋♦r♠❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ s❡❥❛Yit ❛ ✈❛r✐á✈❡❧ ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r❡ss❡ ♣❛r❛ ♦ ✐♥❞✐✈í❞✉♦i♥♦ ♣❡rí♦❞♦ t✱ ❡ ❢❛ç❛♠♦s ❝♦♠
q✉❡ Dit ❞❡♥♦t❡ s✉❛ ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛çã♦ ♥♦ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛ ❈❋❈✳ ❆ss✉♠✐♠♦s q✉❡✱ ♣❛r❛ ❝❛❞❛ ✐♥❞✐✈í❞✉♦✱ ❤á
❞♦✐s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ♣♦t❡♥❝✐❛✐s ♣❛r❛ ❛ ✈❛r✐á✈❡❧ ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r❡ss❡ ❡♠ ❝❛❞❛ ✐♥st❛♥t❡ ♥♦ t❡♠♣♦ ❡ q✉❡ ❛♣❡♥❛s ✉♠ ❞❡st❡s é ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞♦✱ ❛ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡r ❞❡ s❡✉ st❛t✉s ❞❡ tr❛t❛♠❡♥t♦✳ ❆ss✐♠✱
Yit=
︃
Y0it se Dit= 0
Y1it se Dit= 1
❙✉♣♦♠♦s ❛✐♥❞❛ q✉❡
E[Y0it|Ai,Xit,t,Dit] =E[Y0it|Ai,Xit,t]
♦♥❞❡ Xit é ✉♠ ✈❡t♦r ❞❡ ❝♦✈❛r✐á✈❡✐s q✉❡ ✈❛r✐❛♠ ♥♦ t❡♠♣♦ ❡Ai é ✉♠ ✈❡t♦r ❞❡ ♥ã♦ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞❛s
✜①❛s ♥♦ t❡♠♣♦✳ ❊♠ ♦✉tr❛s ♣❛❧❛✈r❛s✱ ❛ss✉♠✐♠♦s q✉❡ ❛ ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛çã♦ ♥♦ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛ é tã♦ ❜♦❛ q✉❛♥t♦ ✉♠❛ r❡s✉❧t❛♥t❡ ❞❡ ✉♠❛ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐③❛çã♦ q✉❛♥❞♦ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛♠♦s ❡♠Ai ❡ ♥❛s ❝♦✈❛r✐❛❞❛s ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞❛s✳
■♠♣♦♠♦s ❛✐♥❞❛ ✉♠ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❧✐♥❡❛r ♣❛r❛ E[Y0it|Ai,Xit,t]
E[Y0it|Ai,Xit,t] =α+λt+A′iγ+Xit′β
P♦r ✜♠✱ ❞❡✜♥✐♠♦s ♦ ❡❢❡✐t♦ ❝❛✉s❛❧ ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r❡ss❡✱ ρ✱ ❝♦♠♦ ❛❞✐t✐✈♦ ❡ ❝♦♥st❛♥t❡
E[Y1it|Ai,Xit,t] =E[Y0it|Ai,Xit,t] +ρ
❊ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❡s❝r❡✈❡r ❛ ❡s♣❡r❛♥ç❛ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❧ ❞❡ Yit ❝♦♠♦
E[Yit|Ai,Xit,t] =α+λt+ρDit+A′iγ+Xit′ β
♦ q✉❡ ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛
Yit=αi+λt+ρDit+Xit′ β+εit
Capítulo 5
Dados
❊st❡ ❡st✉❞♦ ❢❛③ ✉s♦ ❞❡ ❞❛❞♦s ❛❞♠✐♥✐str❛t✐✈♦s ❝❡❞✐❞♦s ♣❡❧❛ ♣❡❧❛ ❙❡❝r❡t❛r✐❛ ▼✉♥✐❝✐♣❛❧ ❞❡ ❊❞✉❝❛✲ çã♦ ❞❛ Pr❡❢❡✐t✉r❛ ❞❛ ❈✐❞❛❞❡ ❞♦ ❘✐♦ ❞❡ ❏❛♥❡✐r♦ ✭❙▼❊✲❘❏✮✳ ❉✐s♣♦♠♦s ❞❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛çõ❡s r❡❢❡r❡♥t❡s ❛ t♦❞♦s ♦s ❛❧✉♥♦s ♠❛tr✐❝✉❧❛❞♦s ♥❛ r❡❞❡ ♠✉♥✐❝✐♣❛❧ ❞❡ ❡♥s✐♥♦ ♣❛r❛ ♦s ❛♥♦s ❧❡t✐✈♦s ❞❡ ✷✵✶✵ ❡ ✷✵✶✶✱ ✉♥✐✈❡rs♦ q✉❡ ❝♦♠♣r❡❡♥❞❡ ❝r✐❛♥ç❛s ✐♥s❝r✐t❛s ❡♠ ❝r❡❝❤❡s✱ ❡s❝♦❧❛s ♠✉♥✐❝✐♣❛✐s ❡ ❈❡♥tr♦s ■♥t❡❣r❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❊❞✉❝❛çã♦ Pú❜❧✐❝❛ ✭❈■❊Ps✮✱ ❛❧é♠ ❞❡ ❥♦✈❡♥s ❡ ❛❞✉❧t♦s ♠❛tr✐❝✉❧❛❞♦s ❡♠ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛s ❞❡ r❡❛❧❢❛✲ ❜❡t✐③❛çã♦ ❡ ♦✉tr♦s ❝✉rs♦s ❞✐✈❡rs♦s✳
◆♦ ✐♥í❝✐♦ ❞❡ ✷✵✶✵✱ ♠❛✐s ❞❡ ✺✻✼ ♠✐❧ ❛❧✉♥♦s ❡♥❝♦♥tr❛✈❛♠✲s❡ ♠❛tr✐❝✉❧❛❞♦s ♥❛ r❡❞❡ ♠✉♥✐❝✐♣❛❧ ❞❡ ❡♥s✐♥♦✱ s❡♥❞♦ ✹✻✹ ♠✐❧ ✐♥s❝r✐t♦s ❡♥tr❡ ♦ ✷➸ ❡ ♦ ✾➸ ❛♥♦s✳ ❈♦♥t✉❞♦✱ ❞❛❞♦s r❡❢❡r❡♥t❡s às ♥♦t❛s ❞❛s ♣r♦✈❛s ❜✐♠❡str❛✐s ❡♠ ✷✵✶✵ ❡stã♦ ✐♥❞✐s♣♦♥í✈❡✐s ♣❛r❛ ❡st✉❞❛♥t❡s ❞♦ ✻➸ ❛♥♦ ❡♠ ❞✐❛♥t❡✱ ❛ss✐♠ ❝♦♠♦ ♣❛r❛ ❛q✉❡❧❡s ❞♦ ✸➸ ❛♥♦ ♥♦ s❡❣✉♥❞♦ s❡♠❡str❡ ❞❡ ✷✵✶✶✳ ❘❡str✐♥❣✐♥❞♦✲♥♦s àq✉❡❧❡s ❛❧✉♥♦s ♣❛r❛ ♦s q✉❛✐s t❡♠♦s t♦❞❛s ❛s ♥♦t❛s ♥❛s ♣r♦✈❛s ❜✐♠❡str❛✐s ❡ ❢r❡q✉ê♥❝✐❛✱ ❧✐♠✐t❛♠♦s ❛ ❛✈❛❧✐❛çã♦ ❛♦s ✶✷✾✱✷✶✵ ❡st✉❞❛♥t❡s q✉❡ ❡♠ ✷✵✶✵ ❝✉rs❛✈❛♠ ♦ ✸➸✱ ✹➸ ♦✉ ✺➸ ❛♥♦s✳
❈♦♠♦ ❡s♣❡r❛❞♦ ❞❡✈✐❞♦ ❛♦ ❢❛t♦ ❞❡ ♦s ❣r✉♣♦s ❞❡ tr❛t❛♠❡♥t♦ ❡ ❝♦♥tr♦❧❡ ♥ã♦ ❤❛✈❡r❡♠ s✐❞♦ ❝♦♥s✲ t✐t✉í❞♦s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ✈❡r✐✜❝❛♠♦s ❞✐❢❡r❡♥ç❛s s✉❜st❛♥❝✐❛✐s ❡♥tr❡ ♦s ✐♥❞✐✈í❞✉♦s ❞❡ ❝❛❞❛ ❣r✉♣♦ ❞✉r❛♥t❡ ♦ ♣ré✲tr❛t❛♠❡♥t♦✳ ❆ ❚❛❜❡❧❛✺✳✶ ❛♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ❛s ♠é❞✐❛s ❞❡ ❝♦✈❛r✐❛❞❛s ♣♦r st❛t✉s ❞❡ tr❛t❛✲ ♠❡♥t♦ r❡❢❡r❡♥t❡s ❛♦ ❛♥♦ ❞❡ ✷✵✶✵✳
❆ ❡str❛té❣✐❛ ❞❡ ❢♦❝❛❧✐③❛çã♦ ❞♦ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛ ❡♠ ❢❛♠í❧✐❛s s✐t✉❛❞❛s ♥❛ ❡①tr❡♠❛ ♣♦❜r❡③❛ ❧❡✈❛ ❛ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥ç❛s ❡♠ ♠✉✐t❛s ❞❛s ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛s ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞❛s✳ P♦r ❡①❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❛ ♣r♦♣♦rçã♦ ❞❡ ♥❡❣r♦s q✉❡ é ❞❡ ✶✷✳✹✪ ♥♦ ❣r✉♣♦ ❞❡ tr❛t❛♠❡♥t♦ s✉♣❡r❛ ❡♠ ✸ ♣♦♥t♦s ♣❡r❝❡♥t✉❛✐s ❛q✉❡❧❛ ✈❡r✐✜❝❛❞❛ ♥♦ ❝♦♥tr♦❧❡✳ ❖ ♠❡s♠♦ s❡ ❛♣❧✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ❝r✐❛♥ç❛s ❝♦♠ ♣❛✐ ♦✉ ♠ã❡ ❝♦♠ ❛té ♦ ✶➸ ❣r❛✉ ✐♥❝♦♠♣❧❡t♦✱ ♠❛✐s ❢r❡q✉❡♥t❡s ❡♥tr❡ ♦s ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥t❡s ❞♦ ❈❋❈✳
❚❛♠❜é♠ ✉♠ ✐♥❞✐❝❛❞♦r ❞❡ s✐t✉❛çã♦ ❡❝♦♥ô♠✐❝❛ ❞❡s❢❛✈♦rá✈❡❧✱ ❛ ✐♥s❝r✐çã♦ ♥♦ ❇♦❧s❛ ❋❛♠í❧✐❛ é ❞❡ ✶✵✵✪ ❡♥tr❡ ❛s ❝r✐❛♥ç❛s ❞♦ tr❛t❛♠❡♥t♦✱ s❡♥❞♦ q✉❛tr♦ ✈❡③❡s ♠❛✐♦r q✉❡ ♥♦ ❣r✉♣♦ ❝♦♥tr♦❧❡✳ ■st♦✱ ❝♦♥t✉❞♦✱ é ❝♦♥s❡q✉ê♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ♦ ❜❡♥❡❢í❝✐♦ ❞♦ ♦ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛ ❢❡❞❡r❛❧ ❝♦♥st✐t✉✐r ♣ré✲r❡q✉✐s✐t♦ ♣❛r❛ ❛ ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛çã♦ ♥♦ ❈❋❈✳
❆ ❢r❛çã♦ ❞❡ ❛❧✉♥♦s ❞❡ ✉♥✐❞❛❞❡s ❞❡ ❡♥s✐♥♦ ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥t❡s ❞♦ ♣r♦❥❡t♦ ❊s❝♦❧❛s ❞♦ ❆♠❛♥❤ã✱ ❞❡st✐♥❛❞♦ às ár❡❛s ❝♦♥✢❛❣r❛❞❛s ❞❛ ❝✐❞❛❞❡✱ é ✺✳✶ ♣♦♥t♦s ♣❡r❝❡♥t✉❛✐s ♠❛✐♦r ♣❛r❛ ♦ ❣r✉♣♦ ❞❡ tr❛t❛♠❡♥t♦✱ ❛❧❝❛♥ç❛♥❞♦ ✷✷✳✹✪✳ ❊st❛s sã♦ ❝r✐❛♥ç❛s q✉❡ ❞❡s❞❡ ✷✵✵✾ ❝♦♥t❛♠ ❝♦♠ ❡❞✉❝❛çã♦ ❡♠ t❡♠♣♦ ✐♥t❡❣r❛❧✱ ♦✜❝✐♥❛s ❝✉❧t✉r❛✐s ❡ ❡s♣♦rt✐✈❛s ❡ ❧❛❜♦r❛tór✐♦s ❞❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠át✐❝❛ ❝♦♠ ✐♥t❡r♥❡t ❜❛♥❞❛ ❧❛r❣❛✳ ◆❛s ❡s❝♦❧❛s ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥t❡s✱ ♣r♦❢❡ss♦r❡s ❡ s❡r✈✐❞♦r❡s sã♦ ❡❧❡❣í✈❡✐s ❛ ♣rê♠✐♦s ❞❡ ✉♠ s❛❧ár✐♦ ❡ ♠❡✐♦ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ♦ ❝✉♠♣r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ♠❡t❛s ❞❡ ❛♣r❡♥❞✐③❛❣❡♠ ❡ ❣❡stã♦✳
✽
❚❛❜❡❧❛ ✺✳✶✮✿ ▼é❞✐❛s ❞❡ ❈♦✈❛r✐❛❞❛s ♣♦r ❙t❛t✉s ❞❡ ❚r❛t❛♠❡♥t♦
Controle Tratamento p-Valor Características Individuais
Idade 10.5 10.5 0.00
Feminino 50.3 50.8 0.16
Negros 9.4 12.4 0.00
Pardos 47.0 51.6 0.00
Brancos 39.3 31.3 0.00
Nasceu em outra cidade 6.6 3.7 0.00 Educação Especial 0.8 0.8 0.47
Religiosos 73.1 71.9 0.00
Problema de Saúde 35.1 36.1 0.00 Nível de Instrução dos Pais
Pai: Até 1➸ Grau Incompleto 24.0 30.1 0.00 Pai: 1➸ Grau 30.2 30.9 0.02 Pai: 2➸ Grau ou mais 21.2 12.5 0.00 Pai: Desconhecido 24.6 26.5 0.00 Mãe: Até 1➸ Grau Incompleto 27.9 37.6 0.00 Mãe: 1➸ Grau 34.8 37.1 0.00 Mãe: 2➸ Grau ou mais 25.3 14.6 0.00 Mãe: Desconhecido 12.1 10.7 0.00 Presença dos Pais
Responsável: Mãe 80.8 89.4 0.00
Mãe Falecida 1.3 0.7 0.00
Pai Falecido 2.7 2.8 0.35
Pai não consta na certidão 7.5 9.4 0.00 Não mora com a mãe 17.9 14.3 0.00 Não mora com o pai 46.2 46.5 0.22 Outras Características
3➸ ano 32.4 35.4 0.00
4➸ ano 37.5 39.9 0.00
5➸ ano 30.1 24.7 0.00
✾
❘❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s s❡♠❡❧❤❛♥t❡s sã♦ ❡♥❝♦♥tr❛❞♦s ❛♦ ❛♥❛❧✐s❛r♠♦s ❛❧✉♥♦s ❝♦♠ ♠ã❡ ❢❛❧❡❝✐❞❛s ♦✉ ❛q✉❡❧❡s q✉❡ ♥ã♦ ♠♦r❛♠ ❝♦♠ ❛ ♠ã❡✳ ❆ ❛✉sê♥❝✐❛ ❞❛ ✜❣✉r❛ ♠❛t❡r♥❛✱ ♥❛ ♠é❞✐❛✱ ❞❡✈❡ ❡st❛r ❛ss♦❝✐❛❞❛ ❛ ♣✐♦r❡s ❝♦♥❞✐çõ❡s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r❛s ♥♦ ❞♦♠✐❝í❧✐♦✱ ♠❛s ❛✐♥❞❛ ❛ss✐♠ ❡st❡s sã♦ ❣r✉♣♦s ♣❛r❛ ♦s q✉❛✐s ❛ ♣❡♥❡tr❛çã♦ ❞♦ ❈❋❈ ♦❝♦rr❡✉ ❡♠ ♠❡♥♦r ❡s❝❛❧❛✳
❆ ❛✉sê♥❝✐❛ ❞❛ ✜❣✉r❛ ♣❛t❡r♥❛ ♣❛r❡❝❡ ❡st❛r ♠❡♥♦s ❛ss♦❝✐❛❞❛ à ♣♦ss✐❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡ ❞❡ ✐♥❝❧✉sã♦ ♥♦ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛✳ ❆ ♣r♦♣♦rçã♦ ❞❡ ❛❧✉♥♦s ❝♦♠ ♣❛✐s ❢❛❧❡❝✐❞♦s ❡ q✉❡ ♥ã♦ r❡s✐❞❡♠ ❝♦♠ ♦ ♣❛✐ sã♦ ✐❣✉❛✐s ❡♥tr❡ ♦s ❞♦✐s ❣r✉♣♦s✳ ❈♦♥t✉❞♦✱ ❝❛❜❡ r❡ss❛❧t❛r q✉❡ t❛✐s ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛s ❞❡✈❡♠ ❡st❛r ❛ss♦❝✐❛❞❛s à ✉♠❛ t❛①❛ ❞❡ ♣♦❜r❡③❛ ♠❛✐♦r ❡ ❞❡✈❡rí❛♠♦s ❡s♣❡r❛r ♣r♦♣♦rçõ❡s ♠❛✐♦r❡s ♥♦ ❣r✉♣♦ ❞❡ tr❛t❛♠❡♥t♦✳
❯♠❛ ♣♦ssí✈❡❧ ❡①♣❧✐❝❛çã♦ r❡s✐❞❡ ♥❛ ✐♠♣♦rtâ♥❝✐❛ ❞❛❞❛ ❛♦ ♣❛✐s✱ ❡ ❡♠ ❡s♣❡❝✐❛❧ à ♠ã❡✱ ♥♦ ❞❡s❡♥❤♦ ❞♦ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛✳ ❈♦♥st❛ ♥♦ ❞❡❝r❡t♦ q✉❡ ✐♥st✐t✉✐ ♦ ❈❋❈ q✉❡✱ ♣r❡❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ ♦ t✐t✉❧❛r ❞♦ ❝❛rtã♦ ❞❡ r❡❝❡❜✐♠❡♥t♦ ❞♦ ❜❡♥❡❢í❝✐♦ s❡rá ❛ ♠✉❧❤❡r✱ ♣♦❞❡♥❞♦ s❡r ♦✉tr♦ r❡s♣♦♥sá✈❡❧ ♣❡❧❛ ✉♥✐❞❛❞❡ ❢❛♠✐❧✐❛r ♥❛ s✉❛ ❛✉sê♥❝✐❛ ♦✉ ✐♠♣❡❞✐♠❡♥t♦✳ ❉❡ss❛ ❢♦r♠❛✱ é ❝♦♠♣r❡❡♥sí✈❡❧ q✉❡ ✉♠ ❞♦♠✐❝í❧✐♦ ♣r✐✈❛❞♦ ❞♦s ♣r✐♥❝✐♣❛✐s ❝❛♥❛✐s ❡♥tr❡ ❛ ❢❛♠í❧✐❛ ❡ ♦ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛ ❛♣r❡s❡♥t❡ r❡❞✉③✐❞❛s ❝❤❛♥❝❡s ❞❡ s❡ ❡♥❝♦♥tr❛r ✐♥s❝r✐t♦ ❡♥tr❡ ♦s ❜❡♥❡✜❝✐ár✐♦s✳
❖✉tr❛ ❡①♣❧✐❝❛çã♦ ❞❡✈❡✲s❡ ❛♦ ❢❛t♦ ❞❡ q✉❡ ✉♠❛ ❡①✐❣ê♥❝✐❛ ♣❛r❛ ❛ ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛çã♦ ♥♦ ❈❋❈ é q✉❡ ❛ ❢❛♠í❧✐❛ s❡❥❛ t❛♠❜é♠ ❜❡♥❡✜❝✐ár✐❛ ❞♦ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛ ❇♦❧s❛ ❋❛♠í❧✐❛ ❞♦ ❣♦✈❡r♥♦ ❢❡❞❡r❛❧✳ ❈❛s♦ ❡st❡ ú❧t✐♠♦ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛ s❡❥❛ ✐♥❡✜❝❛③ ❛♦ ❛❧❝❛♥ç❛r ❛s ❢❛♠í❧✐❛s ❞❡s❝r✐t❛s ❛❝✐♠❛✱ é ♥❛t✉r❛❧ q✉❡ ✐st♦ s❡❥❛ r❡♣❛ss❛❞♦ ❛♦ ❈❋❈✳
❆s ❞✐❢❡r❡♥ç❛s ❡♥tr❡ ♦s ❣r✉♣♦s ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr♦❧❡ ❡ tr❛t❛♠❡♥t♦ ✈ã♦ ❛❧é♠ ❞❡ ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛s ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉✲ ❛✐s ♦✉ ❞❡ ❜❛❝❦❣r♦✉♥❞ ❢❛♠✐❧✐❛r✱ ❡st❡♥❞❡♥❞♦✲s❡ às ♣ró♣r✐❛s ✈❛r✐á✈❡✐s ❞❡ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ s♦❜r❡ ❛s q✉❛✐s ❞❡s❡❥❛♠♦s ❛✈❛❧✐❛r ♦ ✐♠♣❛❝t♦ ❞♦ ❈❋❈✳ ❆ ❚❛❜❡❧❛✺✳✷ ❛♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ❛ ❡✈♦❧✉çã♦ ❞♦ ❞❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦ ♠é❞✐♦ ❞♦s ❛❧✉♥♦s ♥❛s ♣r♦✈❛s ❜✐♠❡str❛✐s ❞❡ ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝❛✱ ❝✐ê♥❝✐❛s ❡ ♣♦rt✉❣✉ês ❡ ❞♦ ♣❡r❝❡♥t✉❛❧ ❞❡ ❢❛❧t❛s✱ s❡♣❛r❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ♣♦r st❛t✉s ❞❡ tr❛t❛♠❡♥t♦✳
P♦r ♥ã♦ s❡r❡♠ ❛s ♥♦t❛s ♥❛s ♣r♦✈❛s ❜✐♠❡str❛✐s ❝♦♠♣❛rá✈❡✐s ❡♥tr❡ sér✐❡s ❡ ❜✐♠❡str❡s ❞✐st✐♥t♦s✱ ♠❡♥s✉r❛♠♦s ♦ ❞❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦ ❞♦s ❛❧✉♥♦s ♥♦s ❡①❛♠❡s ❜✐♠❡str❛✐s ❛tr❛✈és ❞❡ s❡✉s ♣❡r❝❡♥t✐s ♥❛ ❞✐s✲ tr✐❜✉✐çã♦ ❞❡ ♥♦t❛s✳ P❛r❛ ❝❛❞❛ ✈❛r✐á✈❡❧✱ ❛ ♣r✐♠❡✐r❛ ❧✐♥❤❛ r❡❢❡r❡✲s❡ à ♠é❞✐❛ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞❛ ♥♦ ♣❡rí♦❞♦ ♣❛r❛ ♦ ❣r✉♣♦ ❝♦♥tr♦❧❡✱ ❡♥q✉❛♥t♦ ❛ s❡❣✉♥❞❛ ❧✐♥❤❛ ❛♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ❛ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥ç❛ ❡♥tr❡ ❛s ♠é❞✐❛s ❞♦ ❣r✉♣♦ ❞❡ tr❛t❛♠❡♥t♦ ❡♠ r❡❧❛çã♦ ❛♦ ♣r✐♠❡✐r♦✳ ◆❛s ❞✉❛s ú❧t✐♠❛s ❝♦❧✉♥❛s ❡♥❝♦♥tr❛♠✲s❡ ❛s ♠é❞✐❛s ♣❛r❛ ♦ ♣❡rí♦❞♦ ♣ré✲tr❛t❛♠❡♥t♦ ❡ ♣ós✲tr❛t❛♠❡♥t♦✱ r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡✳
❆❧✉♥♦s ✐♥s❝r✐t♦s ♥♦ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛ ❡①✐❜❡♠✱ ❡♠ t♦❞♦s ♦s ❜✐♠❡str❡s ❧❡t✐✈♦s✱ ♣✐♦r❡s ❞❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦s ♥❛s três ♣r♦✈❛s✳ ◆♦ ♣r✐♠❡✐r♦ ❜✐♠❡str❡ ❞❡ ✷✵✶✶ ♦❜s❡r✈❛♠♦s ♣✐♦r❛ r❡❧❛t✐✈♦ ❞♦ ❣r✉♣♦ ❞❡ tr❛t❛♠❡♥t♦✱ q✉❡ s✐t✉❛✲s❡ ❞❡ ✹ ❛ ✺✳✼ ♣❡r❝❡♥t✐s ❛❜❛✐①♦ ❞❛ ♠é❞✐❛ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞❛ ♣❛r❛ ♦ ❣r✉♣♦ ❝♦♥tr♦❧❡✳ ❊♥q✉❛♥t♦ ♣❛r❛ ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝❛ ❡ ❝✐ê♥❝✐❛s ❛ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥ç❛ r❡❞✉③✲s❡ ❛♦ ❧♦♥❣♦ ❞❡ ✷✵✶✶✱ ♦ ♠❡s♠♦ ♥ã♦ s❡ ✈❡r✐✜❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ♣♦rt✉❣✉ês✳ ❆ ♠é❞✐❛ ❞♦ ♣❡rí♦❞♦ ♣ós✲tr❛t❛♠❡♥t♦✱ ♥❡st❡ ú❧t✐♠♦ ❝❛s♦✱ é ✶✳✷ ♣❡r❝❡♥t✐❧ ♠❡♥♦r q✉❡ ❛ ♠é❞✐❛ ❞♦ ♣ré✲tr❛t❛♠❡♥t♦✳ P❛r❛ ❝✐ê♥❝✐❛s✱ ❛ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥ç❛ ❡♥tr❡ ♦s ❞♦✐s ♣❡rí♦❞♦s r❡❞✉③✲s❡ ❡♠ ✵✳✺ ♣❡r❝❡♥t✐❧✳
✶✵
❚❛❜❡❧❛ ✺✳✷✮✿ ❊✈♦❧✉çã♦ ❞❛s ▼é❞✐❛s ❞❛s ❱❛r✐á✈❡✐s ❞❡ ❘❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ♣♦r ❙t❛t✉s ❞❡ ❚r❛t❛♠❡♥t♦
Variável Status 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Média Pré Média Pós
Controle 59.79 59.65 60.48 59.20 59.11 58.47 57.98 59.97 58.69
Matemática Tratamento -3.45 -3.29 -3.27 -4.16 -4.00 -3.19 -2.76 -3.34 -3.53
Controle 60.57 60.48 60.89 58.16 58.78 58.97 57.82 60.64 58.43
Ciências Tratamento -3.87 -3.62 -3.40 -4.04 -3.13 -3.04 -2.35 -3.63 -3.14
Controle 57.48 58.10 58.18 56.94 56.33 56.29 56.49 57.92 56.51
Português Tratamento -2.87 -3.84 -3.83 -5.72 -3.90 -4.39 -4.78 -3.51 -4.70
Controle 5.94 7.05 5.18 5.41 6.04 7.03 5.02 6.06 5.88
Capítulo 6
Resultados
❆ ❚❛❜❡❧❛✻✳✶❛♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ❞❡ r❡❣r❡ssõ❡s ❝♦♠ ❡❢❡✐t♦s ✜①♦s ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛✐s✱ ❝♦♥tr♦❧❛♥❞♦ ♣❡❧❛ sér✐❡ ❝✉rs❛❞❛ ♣❡❧♦ ❛❧✉♥♦✱ ♣❛r❛ ♥♦t❛s ❡♠ ❝❛❞❛ ✉♠❛ ❞❛s ♣r♦✈❛s ❜✐♠❡str❛✐s ❡ ♣❡r❝❡♥t✉❛❧ ❞❡ ❢❛❧t❛s✳ ❖ ♣❡rí♦❞♦ ♦♠✐t✐❞♦ é ♦ s❡❣✉♥❞♦ ❜✐♠❡str❡ ❞❡ ✷✵✶✵✱ ❡♠ ❢✉♥çã♦ ❞♦ ❣r❛♥❞❡ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ❞❛❞♦s ❛✉s❡♥t❡s ♥♦ ✶➸ ❜✐♠❡str❡ ❞♦ r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈♦ ❛♥♦✳ P❡r♠✐t✐♠♦s ❡❢❡✐t♦s ❞❡ tr❛t❛♠❡♥t♦ ✈❛r✐❛♥t❡s ♥♦ t❡♠♣♦✱ ♦ q✉❡ ♥♦s ❧❡✈❛ à ❡st✐♠❛çã♦ ❞❡ ✉♠ ❡❢❡✐t♦ ♣❛r❛ ❝❛❞❛ ❜✐♠❡str❡✱ ✐♥❝❧✉✐♥❞♦ ♣❛r❛ ♦s ♣❡rí♦❞♦s ❛♥t❡r✐♦r❡s ❛♦ ✐♥í❝✐♦ ❞♦ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛✳ ◆❛ ❛✉sê♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ❛♥t❡❝✐♣❛çã♦ ❞♦ tr❛t❛♠❡♥t♦✱ ❡s♣❡r❛rí❛♠♦s ✐♠♣❛❝t♦s ♥✉❧♦s ♥♦s ✸➸ ❡ ✹➸ ❜✐♠❡str❡s ❞❡ ✷✵✶✵✳ ■st♦✱ ❝♦♥t✉❞♦✱ só s❡ ✈❡r✐✜❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ♦ ❞❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦ ❡♠ ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝❛✳
❚❛❜❡❧❛ ✻✳✶✮✿ ❊❢❡✐t♦ ❞❡ ❚r❛t❛♠❡♥t♦ s♦❜r❡ ◆♦t❛s ❡ ❋r❡q✉ê♥❝✐❛
Matemática Ciências Português Faltas 3➸ bimestre de 2010 0.16 0.25 -0.97 -0.11
(0.18) (0.20) (0.18) (0.05)
4➸ bimestre de 2010 0.17 0.47 -0.96 0.17
(0.18) (0.20) (0.18) (0.05)
1➸ bimestre de 2011 -0.87 -0.36 -2.75 -0.12
(0.18) (0.20) (0.18) (0.05)
2➸ bimestre de 2011 -0.71 0.54 -0.94 -0.38
(0.18) (0.20) (0.18) (0.05)
3➸ bimestre de 2011 0.10 0.64 -1.43 -0.40
(0.18) (0.20) (0.18) (0.05)
4➸ bimestre de 2011 0.53 1.33 -1.82 -0.04
(0.18) (0.20) (0.18) (0.05)
Desvios-padrão entre parênteses.
Efeitos de tratamento sobre notas e frequência estimados através de regressões com efeitos ixos individuais controlando pela série do aluno.
❊♠ ✷✵✶✶✱ ❞✐s♣♦♠♦s ❞❡ ❞❛❞♦s ❡♠ t♦❞♦s ♦s q✉❛tr♦ ❜✐♠❡str❡s ❧❡t✐✈♦s ❡✱ ♣♦rt❛♥t♦✱ sã♦ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦s q✉❛tr♦ ❡❢❡✐t♦s ❞❡ tr❛t❛♠❡♥t♦ ♣❛r❛ ❝❛❞❛ ✈❛r✐á✈❡❧ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥t❡✳ ◆♦ ♣ós✲tr❛t❛♠❡♥t♦✱ ♦ ❡❢❡✐t♦ s❡ ✐♥✐❝✐❛ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈♦ ♥❛s três ♣r♦✈❛s ❜✐♠❡str❛✐s✱ s❡♥❞♦ ♠❛✐s ✐♥t❡♥s♦ s♦❜r❡ P♦rt✉❣✉ês ❡ ▼❛t❡♠át✐❝❛✳ ◆♦ ❜✐♠❡str❡ s❡❣✉✐♥t❡✱ ♦ ✐♠♣❛❝t♦ s♦❜r❡ ❈✐ê♥❝✐❛s ❥á s❡ t♦r♥❛ ♣♦s✐t✐✈♦✱ ❡ ❛ss✐♠ ♣❡r♠❛♥❡❝❡ ♥♦s ♣❡rí♦❞♦s s❡❣✉✐♥t❡s✱ s❡♥❞♦ ♠❛✐s ❢♦rt❡ ♥♦ ú❧t✐♠♦ ❜✐♠❡str❡✳ ❖ ❡❢❡✐t♦ ❞♦ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛ s♦❜r❡ ▼❛t❡♠át✐❝❛ é ❝r❡s❝❡♥t❡✱ t♦r♥❛♥❞♦✲s❡ ♥✉❧♦ ♥♦ t❡r❝❡✐r♦ ❜✐♠❡str❡ ❡ ♣♦s✐t✐✈♦ ♥♦ ú❧t✐♠♦✳ P❛r❛ P♦rt✉❣✉ês✱ ❝♦♥t✉❞♦✱ ♦ ✐♠♣❛❝t♦ é s❡♠♣r❡ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈♦✳ ❆♦ ✜♠ ❞♦ ❛♥♦ ❧❡t✐✈♦ ❞❡ ✷✵✶✶✱ ♦s ❡❢❡✐t♦s ✈❛r✐❛♠ ❞❡s❞❡ ✲✶✳✽✷ ♣❡r❝❡♥t✐❧ ♣❛r❛ ♦ ❞❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦ ❡♠ P♦rt✉❣✉ês ❛té ✶✳✻✸ ♣❡r❝❡♥t✐❧ ♣❛r❛ ❈✐ê♥❝✐❛s✳ ❆ ✜♠ ❞❡ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛r ♠❡❧❤♦r ✈✐s✉❛❧✐③❛çã♦ ❞❡ s✉❛ ❡✈♦❧✉çã♦✱ ❛♣r❡s❡♥t❛♠♦s ♥❛ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ?? ♦s ❡❢❡✐t♦s ♦❜t✐❞♦s ♣❛r❛ ❛s ♣r♦✈❛s ❜✐♠❡str❛✐s✳
✶✷
❋✐❣✉r❛ ✻✳✶✿ ❊❢❡✐t♦ ❞❡ ❚r❛t❛♠❡♥t♦ s♦❜r❡ ◆♦t❛s
♥♦ s❡♥t✐❞♦ ❞❡ r❡❞✉③✐r ❛s ❢❛❧t❛s ❞♦s ❛❧✉♥♦s ❡ ❛❧❝❛♥ç❛ s❡✉ ♠á①✐♠♦ ❞❡ ✲✵✳✹ ♣♦♥t♦ ♣❡r❝❡♥t✉❛❧ ♥♦ t❡r❝❡✐r♦ ❜✐♠❡str❡✳
❖s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s s♦❜r❡ ♣r♦✜❝✐ê♥❝✐❛ ❛ss❡♠❡❧❤❛♠✲s❡ àq✉❡❧❡s ❡♥❝♦♥tr❛❞♦s ♣♦r ❬? ❪ ❛♦ ❛✈❛❧✐❛r ♦ ✐♠♣❛❝t♦ ❞❡ ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈♦s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r♦s s♦❜r❡ ♦ ❞❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦ ❞♦s ❛❧✉♥♦s✳ ❊st✉❞❛♥t❡s q✉❡ r❡❝❡❜✐❛♠ ♣rê♠✐♦s ❡♠ ❞✐♥❤❡✐r♦ ❞❡ ❛❝♦r❞♦ ❝♦♠ ♦ r❡❛❧✐③❛çã♦ ❞❡ ❡①❡r❝í❝✐♦s ❞❡ ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝❛ ❛♣r❡s❡♥t❛r❛♠ ❡❢❡✐t♦ ♥✉❧♦ s♦❜r❡ ♣r♦✈❛s ♣❛❞r♦♥✐③❛❞❛s ❞❡ ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝❛ ❡ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈♦s ♣❛r❛ ❧❡✐t✉r❛✳ ❙❡✉s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s✱ ❛ss✐♠ ❝♦♠♦ ♦s ♥♦ss♦s✱ s❡r✐❛♠ ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥t❡s ❝♦♠ ♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❞❡ r✐s❝♦ ♠♦r❛❧ ❝♦♠ ♠ú❧t✐♣❧❛s t❛r❡❢❛s ❞❡ ❬? ❪✳ ■♠❛❣✐♥❡ ✉♠ ❛♠❜✐❡♥t❡ ♥♦ q✉❛❧ ❡①✐st❡ r✐s❝♦ ♠♦r❛❧ ❡ três t❛r❡❢❛s✿ ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝❛✱ ❝✐ê♥❝✐❛s ❡ ♣♦rt✉✲ ❣✉ês✳ ◆❛ ❛✉sê♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈♦s✱ ❡①✐st❡ ✉♠❛ ❛❧♦❝❛çã♦ ❞❡ ❡s❢♦rç♦ ❞❡ ❡q✉✐❧í❜r✐♦ ❡♥tr❡ ❛s t❛r❡❢❛s ♥❛ q✉❛❧ ♦ ❜❡♥❡❢í❝✐♦ ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧ ❞❡ ❝❛❞❛ t❛r❡❢❛ s❡ ✐❣✉❛❧❛ ❛ s❡✉ ❝✉st♦ ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧✳ ❖ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛ ✐♥tr♦❞✉③ ✐♥❝❡♥t✐✈♦s ♣❛r❛ ❛ ♥♦t❛ ♠é❞✐❛ ❡♥tr❡ ❛s três t❛r❡❢❛s✱ ♦ q✉❡ ♣♦❞❡ ❛❧t❡r❛r ❛ ❛❧♦❝❛çã♦ ❞❡ ❡q✉✐❧í❜r✐♦✳ ❈❛s♦ ♦s ❡st✉❞♦s ❞❡ ❝✐ê♥❝✐❛s ❡ ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝❛ s❡❥❛♠ ♠❛✐s ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞❛s ❝♦♠ ♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ♥❛s ♣r♦✈❛s ❜✐♠❡str❛✐s q✉❡ ♦ ❡st✉❞♦ ❞❡ ♣♦rt✉❣✉ês✱ ❡♥tã♦ é ♥❛t✉r❛❧ q✉❡ ♦ ✐♠♣❛❝t♦ s♦❜r❡ ❛s ♥♦t❛s ❞❡ ❝✐ê♥❝✐❛s ❡ ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝❛ s❡❥❛♠ ♠❛✐♦r❡s✳ ❆❧é♠ ❞✐ss♦✱ à ♠❡❞✐❞❛ q✉❡ ✉♠ ♠❛✐♦r ❡s❢♦rç♦ ❞❡❞✐❝❛❞♦ à ❝✐ê♥❝✐❛s ❡ ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝❛ r❡❞✉③ ♦ ❡s❢♦rç♦ ❞❡❞✐❝❛❞♦ à ♣♦rt✉❣✉ês✱ s❡r✐❛ ❞❡ s❡ ❡s♣❡r❛r q✉❡ ❛s ♥♦t❛s ❞❡ ♣♦rt✉❣✉ês s❡ r❡❞✉③✐ss❡♠✳
❆s ❚❛❜❡❧❛s✻✳✷❛✻✳✺✐♥✈❡st✐❣❛♠ ❡❢❡✐t♦s ❞❡ tr❛t❛♠❡♥t♦ s♦❜r❡ ❛s ✈❛r✐á✈❡✐s ❞❡ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ♣❛r❛ ✉♠ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ s✉❜❛♠♦str❛s ♣ré✲❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞❛s✳ ❙ã♦ ✉t✐❧✐③❛❞❛s ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛s ❞❡ r❛ç❛✴❡t♥✐❛✱ ❣ê♥❡r♦✱ ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛çã♦ ♥♦ ❇♦❧s❛ ❋❛♠í❧✐❛✱ ✐♥s❝r✐çã♦ ❡♠ ❡s❝♦❧❛ ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥t❡ ❞♦ ♣r♦❥❡t♦ ❊s❝♦❧❛s ❞♦ ❆♠❛♥❤ã ❡ ♥❡❝❡ss✐❞❛❞❡ ❞❡ ❡❞✉❝❛çã♦ ❡s♣❡❝✐❛❧✳
✶✸
♥ã♦ ❝♦♥s❡❣✉✐♠♦s r❡❥❡✐t❛r ❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s❡ ♥✉❧❛ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❡st❡ ❡❢❡✐t♦ é ③❡r♦ ❡♠ ♥❡♥❤✉♠ ❞♦s ❜✐♠❡str❡s ❛✈❛❧✐❛❞♦s ❞❡✈✐❞♦ à ♣❡q✉❡♥❛ q✉❛♥t✐❞❛❞❡ ❞❡ ❛❧✉♥♦s ❡ ❝♦♥s❡q✉❡♥t❡ ❡❧❡✈❛❞♦ ❞❡s✈✐♦✲♣❛❞rã♦✳ ❊♠ ❣❡r❛❧✱ ♦s ✐♠♣❛❝t♦s ✐♥✐❝✐❛♠ ♦ ❛♥♦ ❧❡t✐✈♦ ❞❡ ✷✵✶✶ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈♦s ❡ ❛♣r❡s❡♥t❛♠ t❡♥❞ê♥❝✐❛ ❝r❡s❝❡♥t❡ ♥♦ t❡♠♣♦✱ ❡♠ ❛❧❣✉♥s ❝❛s♦s t♦r♥❛♥❞♦✲s❡ ♣♦s✐t✐✈♦s✳ ❊st❡ é ♦ ❝❛s♦ ❞❡ ♥❡❣r♦s✴♣❛r❞♦s✱ ♠❡♥✐♥❛s ❡ ❛❧✉♥♦s ❞♦ ❇♦❧s❛ ❋❛♠í❧✐❛✳
❚❛❜❡❧❛ ✻✳✷✮✿ ❊❢❡✐t♦s ❞❡ ❚r❛t❛♠❡♥t♦ ❍❡t❡r♦❣ê♥❡♦s s♦❜r❡ ❉❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦ ❡♠ ▼❛t❡♠át✐❝❛
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
3➸ bimestre de 2010 0.11 0.27 0.23 0.09 0.06 -0.92 -2.95
(0.23) (0.31) (0.26) (0.25) (0.26) (0.40) (2.20)
4➸ bimestre de 2010 0.23 -0.07 0.02 0.31 0.01 -0.25 -1.74
(0.23) (0.31) (0.26) (0.25) (0.26) (0.40) (2.20)
1➸ bimestre de 2011 -0.65 -1.12 -0.76 -0.97 -0.15 -1.54 -2.09
(0.23) (0.31) (0.26) (0.25) (0.26) (0.40) (2.20)
2➸ bimestre de 2011 -0.29 -1.22 -0.91 -0.52 -0.06 -1.30 -0.70
(0.23) (0.31) (0.26) (0.25) (0.26) (0.40) (2.20)
3➸ bimestre de 2011 0.30 -0.29 0.02 0.18 0.22 -0.37 -2.03
(0.23) (0.31) (0.26) (0.25) (0.26) (0.40) (2.20)
4➸ bimestre de 2011 0.69 0.16 0.40 0.67 0.79 0.17 1.18
(0.23) (0.31) (0.26) (0.25) (0.26) (0.40) (2.20)
N 75,600 47,902 64,053 65,157 56,108 24,181 986
Desvios-padrão entre parênteses.
Efeitos de tratamento sobre notas e frequência estimados através de regressões com efeitos ixos individuais controlando pela série do aluno para grupos de interesse.
Modelo 1: Negros e Pardos. Modelo 2: Brancos. Modelo 3: Gênero masculino. Modelo 4: Gênero feminino. Modelo 5: Bolsa Família. Modelo 6: Escolas do Amanhã. Modelo 7: Educação Especial.
❆ ❚❛❜❡❧❛ ✻✳✸ ❛♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ❛♥á❧✐s❡s s❡♠❡❧❤❛♥t❡s ♣❛r❛ ♦ ❞❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦ ❡♠ ❝✐ê♥❝✐❛s✳ ❖s ❡❢❡✐t♦s ❡st✐♠❛❞♦s sã♦ ♥✉❧♦s ❞✉r❛♥t❡ ♦ ♣ré✲tr❛t❛♠❡♥t♦✱ ❡ ♣❛r❛ ♠❡♥✐♥♦s ♦✉ ❜r❛♥❝♦s sã♦ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈♦s ♥♦ ✶➸ ❜✐♠❡str❡ ❞❡ ✷✵✶✶✳ ❆❧✉♥♦s ❞❡ ❊s❝♦❧❛s ❞♦ ❆♠❛♥❤ã sã♦ ♦s ú♥✐❝♦s ✐♠♣❛❝t❛❞♦s ♥❡❣❛t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡ ♥♦ ✷➸ ❜✐♠❡str❡✱ ♠❛s ❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞♦ ♣❡rí♦❞♦ s❡❣✉✐♥t❡ ♦ ❡❢❡✐t♦ é ♣♦s✐t✐✈♦✱ ❝♦♠♦ ♣❛r❛ ❛s ❞❡♠❛✐s s✉❜❛♠♦str❛s✳❆♣❡s❛r ❞♦s ❡❧❡✈❛❞♦s ❞❡s✈✐♦s✲♣❛❞rã♦✱ ♦❜s❡r✈❛♠♦s ❡❢❡✐t♦s ♣♦s✐t✐✈♦s s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥t❡s ♣❛r❛ ❛❧✉♥♦s ❡♠ ❡❞✉❝❛çã♦ ❡s♣❡❝✐❛❧ ♥♦ ✷➸ ❜✐♠❡str❡ ❞♦ ❛♥♦ ❞❡ ✷✵✶✶✱ ❝♦♥s❡q✉ê♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ✉♠ ❡❢❡✐t♦ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦ ❞❡ q✉❛s❡ ✺ ♣❡r❝❡♥t✐s✳ ❊❢❡✐t♦s ♣♦s✐t✐✈♦s s♦❜r❡ ❡st✉❞❛♥t❡s ❜r❛♥❝♦s s❡ ✈❡r✐✜❝❛♠ ❛♣❡♥❛s ♥♦ ú❧t✐♠♦ ♣❡rí♦❞♦✱ q✉❛♥❞♦ s✉♣❡r❛♠ ❡♠ ♠❛❣♥✐t✉❞❡ ❛q✉❡❧❡s ❡st✐♠❛❞♦s ♣❛r❛ q✉❛❧q✉❡r ♦✉tr♦ s✉❜❣r✉♣♦ ❞❛ ❛♠♦str❛✳
❖s ❡❢❡✐t♦s s♦❜r❡ ♦ ❞❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦ ❡♠ ♣♦rt✉❣✉ês ❡♥❝♦♥tr❛♠✲s❡ ♥❛ ❚❛❜❡❧❛ ✻✳✹✳ ❙ã♦ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞♦s ✐♠♣❛❝t♦s s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥t❡s ❞✉r❛♥t❡ ♦ ♣ré✲tr❛t❛♠❡♥t♦✱ ✐♥t❡♥s✐✜❝❛❞♦s ❛♦ s❡ ✐♥✐❝✐❛r ♦ ❛♥♦ ❧❡t✐✈♦ ❞❡ ✷✵✶✶✳ P❛r❛ ❜r❛♥❝♦s✱ ♣♦r ❡①❡♠♣❧♦✱ ♦ ❡❢❡✐t♦ ❛❧❝❛♥ç❛ ✸✳✸ ♣❡r❝❡♥t✐s ♥❡❣❛t✐✈♦s✳ ◆♦ ✷➸ ❜✐♠❡str❡✱ ❛ ♠❛❣♥✐t✉❞❡ ❞♦s ❡❢❡✐t♦s s❡ r❡❞✉③✱ ♠❛s ♥ã♦ ♦ s✉✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ♣❛r❛ ❣❡r❛r ✐♠♣❛❝t♦s ♣♦s✐t✐✈♦s✳ ❆ t❡♥❞ê♥❝✐❛ ❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡st❡ ♠♦♠❡♥t♦✱ ❝♦♥t✉❞♦✱ é ❞❡❝r❡s❝❡♥t❡✱ ❡ ❛♦ ✜♠ ❞♦ ❛♥♦ t♦❞♦s ♦s s✉❜❣r✉♣♦s ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t❛♠ ❡❢❡✐t♦s ♥❡❣❛t✐✈♦s✱ ❡①❝❡t♦ ♣♦r ❡st✉❞❛♥t❡s ❞♦ ❇♦❧s❛ ❋❛♠í❧✐❛ ♦✉ ❡♠ ❡❞✉❝❛çã♦ ❡s♣❡❝✐❛❧✱ ♣❛r❛ ♦s q✉❛✐s ♦ ✐♠♣❛❝t♦ é ♥✉❧♦✳
✶✹
❚❛❜❡❧❛ ✻✳✸✮✿ ❊❢❡✐t♦s ❞❡ ❚r❛t❛♠❡♥t♦ ❍❡t❡r♦❣ê♥❡♦s s♦❜r❡ ❉❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦ ❡♠ ❈✐ê♥❝✐❛s
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
3➸ bimestre de 2010 0.26 -0.01 0.29 0.20 0.33 0.32 -1.25
(0.26) (0.34) (0.28) (0.28) (0.28) (0.45) (2.30)
4➸ bimestre de 2010 0.45 0.22 0.48 0.45 0.33 0.37 -0.06
(0.26) (0.34) (0.28) (0.28) (0.28) (0.45) (2.30)
1➸ bimestre de 2011 -0.01 -1.02 -0.77 0.05 0.25 0.06 0.78
(0.26) (0.34) (0.28) (0.28) (0.28) (0.45) (2.30)
2➸ bimestre de 2011 0.82 0.01 0.66 0.43 0.81 -0.70 4.94
(0.26) (0.34) (0.28) (0.28) (0.28) (0.45) (2.30)
3➸ bimestre de 2011 0.89 0.25 0.61 0.66 1.18 1.09 2.87
(0.26) (0.34) (0.28) (0.28) (0.28) (0.45) (2.30)
4➸ bimestre de 2011 1.13 1.56 1.53 1.13 1.17 1.43 1.27
(0.26) (0.34) (0.28) (0.28) (0.28) (0.45) (2.30)
N 75,600 47,902 64,053 65,157 56,108 24,181 986
Desvios-padrão entre parênteses.
Efeitos de tratamento sobre notas e frequência estimados através de regressões com efeitos ixos individuais controlando pela série do aluno para grupos de interesse.
Modelo 1: Negros e Pardos. Modelo 2: Brancos. Modelo 3: Gênero masculino. Modelo 4: Gênero feminino. Modelo 5: Bolsa Família. Modelo 6: Escolas do Amanhã. Modelo 7: Educação Especial.
❚❛❜❡❧❛ ✻✳✹✮✿ ❊❢❡✐t♦s ❞❡ ❚r❛t❛♠❡♥t♦ ❍❡t❡r♦❣ê♥❡♦s s♦❜r❡ ❉❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦ ❡♠ P♦rt✉❣✉ês
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
3➸ bimestre de 2010 -0.89 -0.99 -1.00 -0.93 -0.56 -1.15 -1.94
(0.23) (0.31) (0.26) (0.25) (0.26) (0.40) (2.15)
4➸ bimestre de 2010 -0.87 -0.95 -0.79 -1.13 -0.35 -0.61 -1.90
(0.23) (0.31) (0.26) (0.25) (0.26) (0.40) (2.15)
1➸ bimestre de 2011 -2.29 -3.30 -2.68 -2.85 -0.94 -2.27 -0.74
(0.23) (0.31) (0.26) (0.25) (0.26) (0.40) (2.15)
2➸ bimestre de 2011 -0.62 -1.24 -0.91 -0.98 0.28 -0.18 2.11
(0.23) (0.31) (0.26) (0.25) (0.26) (0.40) (2.15)
3➸ bimestre de 2011 -1.15 -1.82 -1.40 -1.47 -0.25 -0.59 -1.04
(0.23) (0.31) (0.26) (0.25) (0.26) (0.40) (2.15)
4➸ bimestre de 2011 -1.29 -2.36 -1.89 -1.77 -0.38 -1.71 2.25
(0.23) (0.31) (0.26) (0.25) (0.26) (0.40) (2.15)
N 75,600 47,902 64,053 65,157 56,108 24,181 986
Desvios-padrão entre parênteses.
Efeitos de tratamento sobre notas e frequência estimados através de regressões com efeitos ixos individuais controlando pela série do aluno para grupos de interesse.
✶✺
❚❛❜❡❧❛ ✻✳✺✮✿ ❊❢❡✐t♦s ❞❡ ❚r❛t❛♠❡♥t♦ ❍❡t❡r♦❣ê♥❡♦s s♦❜r❡ P❡r❝❡♥t✉❛❧ ❞❡ ❋❛❧t❛s
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
3➸ bimestre de 2010 -0.07 -0.14 -0.10 -0.13 -0.06 -0.23 -0.40
(0.06) (0.08) (0.07) (0.06) (0.06) (0.11) (0.63)
4➸ bimestre de 2010 0.17 0.14 0.21 0.12 0.13 0.16 -0.58
(0.06) (0.08) (0.07) (0.06) (0.06) (0.11) (0.63)
1➸ bimestre de 2011 -0.14 -0.09 -0.11 -0.13 -0.01 -0.13 -0.23
(0.06) (0.08) (0.07) (0.06) (0.06) (0.11) (0.63)
2➸ bimestre de 2011 -0.34 -0.42 -0.37 -0.39 -0.12 -0.45 -1.72
(0.06) (0.08) (0.07) (0.06) (0.06) (0.11) (0.63)
3➸ bimestre de 2011 -0.44 -0.37 -0.37 -0.42 -0.13 -0.44 -0.83
(0.06) (0.08) (0.07) (0.06) (0.06) (0.11) (0.63)
4➸ bimestre de 2011 -0.06 -0.04 -0.01 -0.07 -0.04 -0.16 -1.00
(0.06) (0.08) (0.07) (0.06) (0.06) (0.11) (0.63)
N 75,600 47,902 64,053 65,157 56,108 24,181 986
Desvios-padrão entre parênteses.
Efeitos de tratamento sobre notas e frequência estimados através de regressões com efeitos ixos individuais controlando pela série do aluno para grupos de interesse.
Capítulo 7
Conclusão
■♥❝❡♥t✐✈♦s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r♦s ♣♦❞❡♠ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝✐❛r s✉❜st❛♥❝✐❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ♦ ❝♦♠♣♦rt❛♠❡♥t♦ ❞♦s ♣❛✐s ❡ ❛❧✉♥♦s✳ ❖s ❡❢❡✐t♦s q✉❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❛♠♦s s♦❜r❡ ❢r❡q✉ê♥❝✐❛ ❡ ❞❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦ ❞♦s ❛❧✉♥♦s ❡♠ t❡st❡s ♣❛❞r♦♥✐③❛❞♦s ❝♦rr♦❜♦r❛♠ ❡st❛ ♦❜s❡r✈❛çã♦✳ ❊st✉❞❛♥t❡s ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛♥t❡s ❞♦ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛ ❈❛rtã♦ ❋❛♠í❧✐❛ ❈❛r✐♦❝❛ t✐✈❡r❛♠ s❡✉s ❞❡s❡♠♣❡♥❤♦s ❡♠ ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝❛✱ ❝✐ê♥❝✐❛s ❡ ♣♦rt✉❣✉ês ✐♠♣❛❝t❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ❜❛st❛♥t❡ ✈❛r✐❛❞❛✳ ❊♥q✉❛♥t♦ ♦ ❡❢❡✐t♦ s❡ ♠♦str♦✉ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈♦ ❡♠ t♦❞♦s ♦s ♣❡rí♦❞♦s ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛❞♦s ♣❛r❛ ♣♦rt✉❣✉ês ❡ ♣ró①✐♠♦ ❞❡ ③❡r♦ ♣❛r❛ ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝❛✱ ✈❡r✐✜❝❛♠♦s ✐♠♣❛❝t♦s s✉❜st❛♥❝✐❛✐s s♦❜r❡ ♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ❡♠ ❝✐ê♥❝✐❛s✳ ❆♦ ✜♠ ❞♦ ❛♥♦ ❧❡t✐✈♦ ❞❡ ✷✵✶✶✱ ♦ ✐♠♣❛❝t♦ ✈❛r✐❛✈❛ ❞❡s❞❡ ✲✶✳✽ ♣❡r❝❡♥t✐❧ s♦❜r❡ ♣♦rt✉❣✉ês ❛té ✶✳✻ ♣❡r❝❡♥t✐❧ ♣❛r❛ ❝✐ê♥❝✐❛s✳ ◗✉❛♥t♦ à ❢r❡q✉ê♥❝✐❛✱ ♦ ❈❋❈ ❛♣❛r❡♥t❛ r❡❞✉③✐r t✐♠✐❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ❛s ❢❛❧t❛s ❞♦s ❛❧✉♥♦s✱ ♣♦ss✐✈❡❧♠❡♥t❡ ❞❡✈✐❞♦ às ❥á ❡❧❡✈❛❞❛s ❡①✐❣ê♥❝✐❛s ❞❡ ❢r❡q✉ê♥❝✐❛ s♦❜ ❛s q✉❛✐s ❡ss❡s s❡ ❡♥❝♦♥tr❛♠✳
❆ ❛♥á❧✐s❡ ❞♦s ❡❢❡✐t♦s ❞❡ tr❛t❛♠❡♥t♦ ♣❡rí♦❞♦ ❛ ♣❡rí♦❞♦ ✐♥❞✐❝❛♠ ✐♠♣❛❝t♦s ♥♦ ✶➸ ❜✐♠❡str❡ ❜❛s✲ t❛♥t❡ ✐♥❢❡r✐♦r❡s ❛♦s ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞♦s ♥♦s ❞❡♠❛✐s✳ P♦ss✐✈❡❧♠❡♥t❡✱ ❡st❛ é ✉♠❛ ❝♦♥s❡q✉ê♥❝✐❛ ❞♦ ❞❡s❡♥❤♦ ❞♦ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛✱ q✉❡ só ♣♦ss✐❜✐❧✐t❛ ❛ ♦❜t❡♥çã♦ ❞❡ ♣rê♠✐♦s ✜♥❛♥❝❡✐r♦s ♥❡st❡ ♣❡rí♦❞♦ ✐♥✐❝✐❛❧ ❛tr❛✈és ❞❛ ♦❜t❡♥çã♦ ❞❡ ♥♦t❛s r❡❧❛t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡ ❛❧t❛s✱ ❡♥q✉❛♥t♦ ♥♦s ❞❡♠❛✐s é ♣♦ssí✈❡❧ ❢❛③ê✲❧♦ ❛tr❛✈és ❞❡ ✉♠❛ ♠❡❧❤♦r❛ s✉❜st❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❡♠ r❡❧❛çã♦ à ♥♦t❛ ❛♥t❡r✐♦r♠❡♥t❡ ♦❜t✐❞❛✳ ❆ss✐♠✱ s❡r✐❛ ♥❛t✉r❛❧ ❡s♣❡r❛r q✉❡ ❛❧✉♥♦s q✉❡ s❡ ❥✉❧❣✉❡♠ ✐♥❝❛♣❛③❡s ❞❡ ♦❜t❡r ♦ ❜ô♥✉s ♥❡st❡ ✐♥st❛♥t❡ ✐♥✐❝✐❛❧ ♣r❡❢❡r✐ss❡♠ ❛♣r♦✈❡✐t❛r ❛ ♦♣♦rt✉♥✐❞❛❞❡ ♣❛r❛ ❝r✐❛r ✉♠❛ ❜❛s❡ ❞❡ ❝♦♠♣❛r❛çã♦ ❢r❛❝❛ ❛ ✜♠ ❞❡ ❢❛❝✐❧✐t❛r ❛ ♦❜t❡♥çã♦ ❞♦ ❜ô♥✉s ❞♦ ❜✐♠❡str❡ s❡❣✉✐♥t❡✳
Referências Bibliográicas
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