Renewable energy in Islands: an integrated proposal for electricity generation and transports

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Renewable Energy in Islands. An

Integrated Proposal for Electricity

Generation and Transports

Patrícia Marques, Énia Silva

Cristina Camus, Eduardo Eusébio

INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON RENEWABLE

ENERGIES AND POWER QUALITY (ICREPQ'15)

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• Introduction

• The Islands Electric System characterization

• The Islands LD Fleet evolution and characterization

• Methodology. Electric Vehicle penetration and

Recharging Scenarios.

• Case Study

• Conclusions

Renewable Energy in Islands. An Integrated Proposal for Electricity Generation and Transports

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Introduction

Madeira Island has about 55 km length and 24 km width, a total

area of 740 km

2

_{and Terceira has about 29 km length and 18 km}

width, a total area of 400 km

2

_{. This is suited for an electric vehicle}

(EV) use because the majority of daily trips are expected to be less

than 100 km, so the range limitation problem almost no exists in

this Island.

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Introduction

Distribution of oil products’ consumption in 2013 in Madeira and

Terceira among the final products

265 000 tons

Gasoline 12% Diesel 28% Fueloil 50% Other products 10% Gasoline 9% Diesel 28% Fueloil 54% Other products 9%

77 208 tons

Terceira

Madeira

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Introduction

Transportation

Electricity production

Fossil Fuels use

CO

2

emissions

Transports 38% Electricity Gen. 50% Others 12% Transports 27% Electricity Gen. 49% Others 24%

Terceira

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The Islands Electric System characterization

Evolution of electricity generation in Madeira

74,1% 9,3% 3,1% 10,0% 3,5% Thermal Hydro MSW Wind PV 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 E ner gy [GW h] Time [years]

Thermal Hydro Wind MSW PV

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The Islands Electric System characterization

Evolution of electricity generation in Terceira

2013 - 206GWh 0 50 100 150 200 250 P roduce d e ner gy [GW h] Time [years]

Thermal Wind Hydric

15,3% 83,3% 1,3% Wind Thermal Hydro

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The Islands Electric System characterization

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 E ne rgy [ M Wh ] Time [h]

Typical spring load profile

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 E ne rgy [ M Wh] Time [h]

Typical winter load profile

Hydro MSW Wind

PV Thermal Consumption

Madeira Island Terceira Island

Typical spring load profile

Typical winter load profile

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 M W h Time (h) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 M W h Time (h)

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The Islands Electric System characterization

Source Power [MW] Fuel Hydro Wind PV MSW 218.7 50.9 45.1 17.9 8.0 Total 340.6

Installed capacity and potential of renewable sources Terceira: Source 2030 Wind (more) PV 60 MW 20 MW Source Power [MW] Fuel Hydro Wind 61.2 1.4 12.6 Total 75.2 Source 2030 Geothermal Wind PV Biomass 12 MW 16.2 MW 4.2 MW 3.1MW Madeira:

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The Islands LD Fleet evolution and characterization

Evolution of the light duty fleet/1000 inhabitants in Portugal,

Madeira and Terceira

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 L D flee t/ Popula tio n x 1 00 0 Years LD fleet/1000 inhabitants Portugal Terceira Madeira

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Electric Vehicle penetration and Recharging

Scenarios

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 LD Fl eet (nu mber)

Gasoline Diesel GPL Hybrid

Expected evolution for the LD fleet in Madeira in a BAU scenario

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 Years LD fleet/1000 inhabitants S=530 a=1999 b=0.11 c= 0.0 r2_=0.901

 





_e b(t a)

e

c

S

c

t

VD









  

Best fit for Gompertz logistic function

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Electric Vehicle penetration and Recharging

Scenarios

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Considering the % of EV sales increases till 50% - 17500 EVs in 2030 (14% LD Fleet) 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 LD Fl eet (nu mber) EV Hybrid GPL Diesel Gasoline 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Percenta ge of ve hi cl es Time [h]

Gaussian distribution for off-peak charging mean at 3h and std of 2h.

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Electric Vehicle penetration and Recharging

Scenarios

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Expected evolution for the LD fleet in Terceira in a BAU scenario

 





_e b(t a)

e

c

S

c

t

VD









  

Best fit for Gompertz logistic function 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Years LD fleet/1000 inhabitants

Terceira Terceira GM fit S=600 a=2002 b=0.065 c= 97.66 r2_=0.956 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 LD Fl eet (nu m ber )

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Electric Vehicle penetration and Recharging

Scenarios

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Considering the % of EV sales increases till 50% - 5140 EVs in 2030 (14% LD Fleet)

Profile of controlled off-peak charging with 14% EV in spring season 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 LD Fl eet (nu mber) EV Hybrid Diesel Gasoline 0% 5% 10% 15% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 P ercen tag e of v eh icles Time [h]

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Case Studies

SIMULATION RESULTS:

Scenario of 1% increase of electricity demand and 60 MW of wind power and 20 MW of PV by 2030 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 E ner gy [ M W h] Time[h]

Spring load profile

Hydro MSW Wind

PV New Wind New PV

EV Charging Thermal Charge

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 E ner gy [ M W h] Time [h]

Spring load profile

Hydro MSW Wind

PV New Wind New PV

Thermal EV Charging Charge

14% EV penetration 7% 2% 8% 2% 10% 3% 68% 7% 3% 8% 2% 10% 3% 67% Hydro MSW Wind PV New Wind New PV 1047 GWh/yr 1012 GWh/yr EVs +35 GWh/yr

Madeira

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Case Studies

SIMULATION RESULTS:

In Madeira Island it is expected that EV will be charged with fuel oil power plants although there are some benefits in the whole.

Fossil fuels use (primary energy in GWh/year) Emissions in thousand tons of CO2

592 687 589 1120 1225 1288 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2013 2030(0 EV) 2030(14%EV) Foss il fuel s us e (GW h) Electricity LD fleet 145 174 148 438 478 ₅₀₁ 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2013 2030(0 EV) 2030(14%EV) T hous a nds of tons of CO 2

Madeira

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Case Studies

SIMULATION RESULTS:

Scenario of 14% EV penetration, 1% increase of electricity demand and 12 MW Geothermal power, 16.2 MW of Wind power, 4.2 MW PV and 3.1MW in Biomass by 2030 - 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 E ne rgy [ M Wh] Time [h]

Hydro Wind Geothermal Biomass New wind PV Thermal EV Wednesday Saturday Sunday

0,6% 10,8% 26,0% 33,3% 7,6% 19,2% 2,6% Hydro Wind Fuel Geothermal Biomass New Wind PV 285 GWh/year Load - 276 GWh EV - 9 GWh

Terceira

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Case Studies

SIMULATION RESULTS:

Scenario of 14% EV penetration, 1% increase of electricity demand and 12 MW Geothermal power, 16.2 MW of Wind power, 4.2 MW PV and 3.1MW in Biomass by 2030 - 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 E ne rgy [ M Wh] Time [h]

Hydro Wind Geothermal Biomass New wind PV Thermal EV Wednesday Saturday Sunday

130 136 433 179 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2013 2030 Foss il fuel s us e (G W h) Electricity LD fleet

Terceira

33 35 124 51 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2013 2030 E mis si ons (thous a nd ton s of CO2) Electricity LD fleet

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Conclusions

Electrifying the car sector has the potential to

 Reduce CO₂ emissions,

 Use locally produced electricity increased by renewable sources  Decrease energy unit costs and oil imports.

If there is not enough demand to fill the valley hours in order to incorporate more renewable production, there are only small advantages in the electric vehicle, as the oil products imports saved for the cars are replaced by fuel oil for the thermal

power plants and the CO₂ emissions are transferred from the tail pipes to the power

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Conclusions

 The impact of EVs could be disastrous in a scenario of strong penetration if

uncontrollable charging is allowed.

 The charging of EVs should be done during off-peak hours and if possible

controlled by the electric utility as a dispatchable or scheduled load.

 The cost of EVs energy may be less than ¼ of ICEVs

 V2G and other systems of energy storage should also be considered in

islands in order to increase renewable penetration and energy security of supply in the region.

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[email protected]

Rua Conselheiro Emídio Navarro, 1 Tel.: 218 317 000

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Electric Vehicle penetration and Recharging

Scenarios

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Considering the % of EV and HEV sales increases till 100% - 30200 EVs in 2030 (23% LD Fleet) 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 LD Fl eet (nu mber) EV Hybrid GPL Diesel Gasoline

Renewable energy in Islands: an integrated proposal for electricity generation and transports