A visão da EDP para a Energia Solar
Conferência ENERGIA 2020
Pedro Neves Ferreira
Director de Planeamento Energético – EDP
pedro.nevesferreira@edp.pt
Agenda
Visão da energia solar no mundo
Agenda
Visão da energia solar no mundo
1. World primary energy consumption in 1 year is estimated at ~130.000 TWh (2005)
Source: EREC/Greenpeace – Energy [r]evolution 2008 citing the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) and Dr. Joachim Nitsch (German Aerospace Center - Institute of Technical Thermodynamics)
Solar power is the most abundant renewable resource on Earth
and current tech could supply ~4X today’s energy consumption
Theoretical potential of renewable sources
Multiples of world primary energy consumption in 1 year
1Technically accessible potential of renewables
Multiples of world primary energy consumption in 1 year
13,8
1,0
0,5
0,4 0,2 0,1 5,9
Sun Geo Wind Biomass Hydro Ocean Total
•
Technically accessible potential is the amount that could
be accessed with currently available technologies and
could provide nearly 6 times current global needs
Source: EPIA – Solar Generation V, IEA - Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme – 2008 Trends Report, EER - Global CSP Development Strategies 2007-2020, EER Global Renewable Power Generation Forecasts 2009-2020, Team Analysis
World Solar installed capacity has been growing at an accelerating
pace to reach ~17 GW by ‘09, increasingly in grid connected units
World installed capacity
MW, 1995-2009E
Installed capacity by application
% of cumulative capacity, 1992-2008
+ 14%
+ 31%
- Annual additions
- Cumulative
•
Installed capacity growing at accelerating pace, even in
the context of a major crystalline silicon shortage
•
With shortage solved, growth is expected to push through
in coming years, after a slowdown in ‘09 due to the crisis
- CAGR
By end-2008 Germany had ~35% of total global installed capacity,
while Spain alone accounted for ~50% of new additions in 2008
Top 6 Solar countries – Cumulative capacity
MW, 2008
Top 6 Solar countries – Added capacity
MW, 2008
Source: EPIA – 2013 Global Market Outlook for PV, EER – Global CSP Markets and Strategies 2009-2020
Solar installed capacity may reach over 175 GW by 2020, mostly
through PV growth
PV – 3,2 duplications until 2020
CSP – 5,0 duplications until 2020
9X
32X
Global Solar installed capacity outlook
GW, 2009-2020
2020 forecast according to different sources
2020 forecast according to different sources
Source: EPIA – Solar Generation V (2008), EREC – Energy Revolution 2008, McKinsey & Co. – Developing a Winning Solar Strategy (Apr08), EER Global Renewable Power Generation Forecasts 2009-2020, Team analysis
•
Ability of solar PV industry to maintain historic learning rates
•
Impact and duration of crisis and level of climate change policies
•
Relative competitiveness with end-user retail tariffs
•
Massification of building integrated applications
•
Impact and duration of crisis and level of climate change policies
•
Evolution of fossil fuel prices and conventional generation costs
•
Relative competitiveness with conventional generation
Unlike Wind, Solar power generation technologies have not
stabilized around a unique development standard
Wind technology has generally standardized….
….while Solar technology has kept diversifying
Rotor
diameter
(m)
- Mass production
- Prototypes
•
Stable technological standard generically achieved
•
Evolution around scaling and materials cost/resistance
•
Multiple radically different technologies in competition
•
And new pathways still being developed
(e.g.: organic PV, nano PV, dye sensitized PV)
Source: IEA – Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, McKinsey & Co. – Developing a Winning Solar Strategy (Apr08); EPIA – Solar Generation V 2008; EER – Global CSP Markets and Strategies (Nov 2007), Team Analysis
Solar PV
Crystalline
Silicon
Thin Films
CPV
Solar CSP
Parabolic
Trough
Central
Tower
Parabolic
Dish
97%
3%
86% 11% 0% ~3% ~0% 0%As a result, Solar tech selection is a key success factor, driven
mostly by local solar resource and application type
Scale
Geography
Ground based
Utility
Over 250 kW
Large DG
Rooftop or
Groundbased
5 to 250 kW
Rooftop /
Building
Integrated
Less than 5kW
Low Irradiation
Less than 1.400 kWh/m
2Berlin, Paris, New York, London
Medium Irradiation
1.400 to 2.000 kWh/m
2Lisbon, Madrid, Rome, Athens
High Irradiation
Over 2.000 kWh/m
2Arizona, South Spain, North Africa
Solar technology matrix
Source: Team analysis
•
c-Si in space constrained rooftops due to high efficiency
•
Thin Film for unconventional building integrated applications
•
CPV in ground based
applications (requires
trackers)
•
CSP best option in most
cases
•
Thin Film cheapest option if land is free
Supply shortage
New manufacturing capacity and the economic crisis have reversed
c-Si shortage, bringing module prices down over 30% since Dec-08
Price history and forward curve for c-Si
$/kg of c-Si, 2004-2015E
Source: NEF - Silicon Forward Price Index I – 2008/08/14 and Silicon Forward Price Index V – 2009/11/10, SolarBuzz.com, pveXchange.de
1. Median price for all standing forward polysilicon contracts, by year of delivery 2. Spot prices fell from a high of 470 $/kg in March ‘08 to the current value of 60 $/kg as of November ’09 3. BoS – Balance of System 4. SolarBuzz.com - Nov ‘09 5. pveXchange.de – Nov ‘09
- Jul ‘08 forward curve
1- Oct ‘09 forward curve
1c-Si Module price evolution
€/W, 2005-2009
- c-Si Retail Module price index
4- c-Si Factory Module price index
5-10%
-32%
As a side effect, Thin Film’s recent cost competitiveness relative to c-Si has been reduced
Several sources see cost competitiveness arriving soon, depending
on wholesale and retail prices and location
Drivers for evolution in cost competitiveness
Break-even year
World installed
capacity duplications
Learning rate
Retail rates /
pool price real
increase
PV rooftop
vs retail
rates
PV utility
scale vs.
pool
CSP vs.
pool
Source: MBIPV, FBR Research, New Energy Finance, Emerging Energy Research , McKinsey& Co., Roland Berger, Team analysis
FBR Research New Energy Finance
Roland Berger MBIPV
EER
McKinsey & Co. Roland Berger
Agenda
Visão da energia solar no mundo
1. RES – Renewable Energy Sources
2. Os pesos dos sectores não somam 100% devido a efeitos contabilísticos impostos pela Directiva da EU. Ex.: o consumo de energia em Transportes Aéreos e Marítimos não conta para peso de renováveis no sector Transportes, pelo que não está incluído no peso do sector Transportes, mas contribui para o Consumo Final Bruto total do país.
Peso de cada sector no consumo
% Consumo Final Bruto
2Peso de renováveis por sector
% RES
1por Sector
Contribuição de cada sector
p.p. de contribuição para RES
1Total
Transportes
Calor e Frio
(Não Eléctrico)
Electricidade
X
=
Corresponde a ~40,4 TWh de
geração renovável em 2020
31%
Objectivo assumido por Portugal
de renováveis em 2020 no âmbito
do Pacote Energia Clima
O cumprimento dos objectivos assumidos para 2020 implica
1. DL 363/2007 prevê 10 MW instalados em 2008 com volume de instalações a aumentar 20% em cada ano até 2015, chegando a 165 MW de PV distribuído
Objectivos de potência instalada de Solar em Portugal
MW acumulados, 2008-2020
- Total (novo objectivo)
- Micro-Geração (objectivo DL 363/2007)
Objectivo anunciado pelo Governo em Outubro 2009
Objectivo anunciado pelo Governo em 2007
Possível repartição por tipo de instalação
MW, 2020
Percurso previsto no DL 363/20071Distribuído
MW
•
Integrado edif.
50
•
Micro rooftop
400
•
Mini rooftop
200
Centralizado
•
CSP
•
PV
Mix de geração renovável em Portugal em 2020
TWh Geração Renovável Bruta, 2020
Target
RES-E
Hidro Aj. Eólica Aj.
Outras
Gap para
Target
2020
Grande
Hidro
Mini
Hidro
Eólica
Geo-
térmica
Ondas
Biomassa
Solar
Gap
Restante
Capacidade já instalada 2009
Novos acréscimos previstos no programa de Governo
•
60% de RES-E
•
1.500 MW @
1.900
1horas
1. Assumindo um mix de tecnologias solares (500 MW CSP @ 2.500 horas + 350 MW PV Centralizado @ 1.850 horas + 650 MW PV Distribuído @1.400 horas)
