Cities and Climate Change in Brazil Preliminary Study Results. Ming Zhang & Catherine Lynch Latin America and the Caribbean Region World Bank

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Cities and Climate Change in Brazil

Preliminary Study Results

Ming Zhang & Catherine Lynch

Latin America and the Caribbean Region

World Bank

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Brazilian Cities and Climate Change

• Urban development in Brazil: key programs

and opportunities

• GHG emissions

• Vulnerability

• Actions by Brazilian cities

• Institutions

• Financing

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Brazil 2010: The Largest Urban Upgrading

Program in the World

Complexo do Alemão – Rio de Janeiro/RJ

Guarapiranga São Paulo/SP

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Manaus Natal Fortaleza Recife Rio de Janeiro Curitiba Porto Alegre Brasilia Cuiabá São Paulo Salvador

2014: World Cup

Belo Horizonte

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Brazilian Cities: Taking Global Leadership

on Climate Change

• São Paulo: state and municipal CC legislation • Ambitious GHG reduction targets

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Principalmente da Área Urbana

GHG Emissions in Brazil (2008)

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GHG Emissions in Cities

Transportation of Waste Waste Transport Urban Forestry Water Grey water reuse Sludge treatment Pedestrian comfort Energy Traffic management systems Biogas-to-energy Efficient water pumping Heat island effect Emission source: (+) Transport (+) Solid Waste (+) Energy usage (+) Water Emission sink: (-) Urban Forestry Mathematically, it should be possible for a city to be carbon neutral by creating sufficient green areas

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The dominance of deforestation marks the

fact...

BRAZIL (GHG growth including dorestation)

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...that some emissions are growing rapidly

…

BRAZIL (GHG Growth Excluding LULUCF)

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... Especially energy, transport and waste

Energy growth includes: 22% electricity 28% manufacturing & construction 40% transport ENERGY INDUSTRY AGRICULTURE WASTE DEFORESTATION (GHG growth by sector since 1990)

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Per capita emissions in Brazilian cities are low

Fonte: Kennedy, C.A., Ramaswami, A., Carney, S., and Dhakal, S. Greenhouse Gas Emission Baselines for Global Cities and Metropolitan Regions (2009). Nota: Belo Horizonte foi adicionado usando dados de seu inventario de 2009.

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0

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Wastes represent a larger share of GHG in

Brazil than other global cities

Fonte: Kennedy, C.A., Ramaswami, A., Carney, S., and Dhakal, S. Greenhouse Gas Emission Baselines for Global Cities and Metropolitan Regions (2009). Nota: Belo Horizonte foi adicionado usando dados de seu inventario de 2009.

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Global cities medium Rio de Janeiro Sao Paulo Belo Horizonte

WASTE AFOLU INDUSTRY ENERGY

Source of GHG emissions by selected municipalities in Brazil and medium of global cities 4%

41%

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Generation of urban solid waste in Brazil

(1,000 tons/day & % collected)

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Demand for electricity is also increasing

• Hydro power makes up 3/4 of installed generation capacity, and ethonol substitutes make up 2/5 of gasoline

• However, increase of electricity supply from renewable energy sources will be challenging, and can result in use of carbon

based sources to satisfy demand

• As families get richer, housing unit size tends to be larger and they use more appliances

– In 2000, only 37% of Brazilian families had washing machines, 9% had air conditions, 22% had microwaves, e 12% owned personal computers

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Tendency toward sprawl in growing urban

agglemerations

Cr es ci me nt o An ual d a Po pu laç ão 2 00 0-2008 Indice de Sprawl (2000) Sao Paulo Rio de Janeiro Maringa Recife Belem Belo Horizonte Salvador Porto Alegre Brasilia Blumenau Caixas do Sul Joinville Fortaleza Curitiba Ipatinga Itajai Florianopolis Criciúma Londrina Santos

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And the impacts of climate change?

• Projection of climate modeling by CPTEC/INPE

• Impacts include flooding (intensive rains plus rising sea level), droughts and temperature rise

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Increase in Frequency and Intensity of

Rains and Storms

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Increase in Frequency and Intensity of

Rains and Storms

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Brazilian cities are acting...

• Formation of municipal inter-sectoral special commissions

• Various cities have concluded GHG inventories, establishing targets and taking measures to reduce emissions

• Few have assessed vulnerabilities

– But in general there is lack of focus on adaptation in other cities in the world

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Emerging Four Phases of Actions by Brazilian

Cities on Climate Change

FAS E CI DA DE S CO M PO NE NT ES • Rio de Janeiro • São Paulo • Belo Horizonte • Betim • Porto Alegre • Goiânia • Volta Redonda • Palmas • Curitiba Setor • Transporte • Resíduos • Energia • Agricultura • LULUCF Limites • Municipalidade • Área Metropolitana GHG Emission Inventory • Rio de Janeiro • São Paulo • Betim (ate2010) • Low carbon scenarios • Cost-benefit analysis • Co-benefit analysis • Law • Decision whether reduction is a priority Emission Reduction Targets • Rio de Janeiro • São Paulo Impacts • Flooding • Sea level rise • Temperature • Drought Vulnerability • Infrastructure • Ativos • Social • Public health Vulnerability Assessment • Investimentos • Cronograma • Políticas • Atores e responsabilidades Climate Change Action Plans

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6 key sectors where local government can have a

catalystic role in emission reduction

Setor Selected Possible Actions Brazilian Examples

Transport • Enhance the efficiency and coverage of public transport

• Restriction of private auto use

• BRT in Curitiba

Land use • Promover bairros de usos mistos e alta densidade

• Land tax differentiated according to use

• Bairro Noroeste in Brasilia • Ecological property tax • “Urban Operations”

Energy Efficiency • Public building efficiency standards • Public lighting conversion in Belo Horizonte

Renewable Energy • Solar public lighting • Solar water heating

• Use of biodiesel in public transport

• Biodiesel Program of Belo Horizonte

• Solar energy use under MCMV • São Paulo solar energy law

Waste Management • Waste recycling program • Methane gas capture

• São João & Bandeirantes Landfill in São Paulo

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Parks: Environment, Recreation and Flood Prevention

TRECHO 1 ENTRADA DO RIO NO MUNICIPIO PARQUE BARIGUI CONVENÇÕES RIO BARIGUI VIAPARQUE CICLOVIA

FAIXA DO ANEL DE CONSERVAÇÃO SANITÁRIO AMBIENTAL ( DE 85m A 200m) DIRETRIZ DE ARRUAMENTO

ARRUAMENTO EXISTENTE OCUPAÇÕES IRREGULARES LAGOAS DE ACUMULAÇÃO ÁREA DE EXPANSÃO DO PARQUE

PARQUE TANGUÁ IMPLANTAR VIA PARQUE AO LONGO DO RIO BARIGUI

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34 TRECHO 1 ENTRADA DO RIO NO MUNICIPIO PARQUE BARIGUI PARQUE TINGUÍ PARQUE TINGUI CONVENÇÕES RIO BARIGUI VIA PARQUE CICLOVIA

FAIXA DO ANEL DE CONSERVAÇÃO SANITÁRIO AMBIENTAL ( DE 85m A 200m) DIRETRIZ DE ARRUAMENTO

ARRUAMENTO EXISTENTE OCUPAÇÕES IRREGULARES LAGOAS DE ACUMULAÇÃO ÁREA DE EXPANSÃO DO PARQUE

Parks: Environment, Recreation and Flood Prevention

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35 TRECHO 1 ENTRADA DO RIO NO MUNICÍPIO PARQUE BARIGUI VIA PARQUE SANITÁRIO AMBIENTAL ( DE 85m A 200m) OCUPAÇÕES IRREGULARES ÁREA DE EXPANSÃO DO PARQUE CONVENÇÕES

RIO BARIGUI

CICLOVIA

FAIXA DO ANEL DE CONSERVAÇÃO DIRETRIZ DE ARRUAMENTO

ARRUAMENTO EXISTENTE LAGOAS DE ACUMULAÇÃO

IMPLANTAR VIA PARQUE

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Sao Paulo State & Municipality:

Climate Change Targets Written into Laws

• Municipal Law on Climate Change (June 2009): Target to reduce GHG emissions by 30% by 2012

• Landfills – Gas to Energy Projects • Tree Planting (Greener São Paulo

Project)

• Bike lane construction

• Law on water heating systems thru solar energy

• Mandatory vehicle inspection for air pollution control

• Legal wood program

• City bus fleet to renewable energy • State Law on Climate Change

(October 2009): Target to reduce GHG emissions by 20% by 2020 • Establish inventory

• Sustainable transport

• Aggressive expansion of public transport system

• Green procurement • Reforestation

• Adaptation

• Vehicle pollution control

• Economic and ecological zoning

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São Paulo: Bandeirantes and São Jõao Landfills

• Reduced 20% GHG

emitted in the city

• Generate enough energy

to supply 600,000 people

• Account for 59% of all

CER’s issued in the world

related to landfill projects

• Carbon credit auction:

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Solar Heating in Low Income Areas

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Institutional arrangement

• Brazil has a range of institutional mechanisms to implement climate-related policies at all levels of government.

• need to better define the best federative level for specific types of actions

• Need for inter-sectoral coordination within the municipal government

• For climate change, collaboration at the level of metropolitan region is extremely important

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Financing

• Additional investment costs for mitigation measures in the transport is US$146 B, and in waste sectors is US$87 B until 2030

– US$189/ ton of mitigation in urban transport – US$50/ ton of mitigation in waste

• Adaptation costs vary greatly

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Conclusions

1. Need to focus on climate change impacts and adaptation

2. Need for resources for planning and capacity building

3. Mitigation from waste is a lower cost opportunity and high priority in the short term, but transport and urban planning can have huge impact over the long term and offer multiple co-benefits

4. Opportunities to act now and create a sustainable future