ACOMPANHAMENTO DA PESQUISA FOCUS RELATÓRIO DE MERCADO

(1)

Departamento de Pesquisas e Estudos Econômicos

ACOMPANHAMENTO DA PESQUISA FOCUS RELATÓRIO DE MERCADO

5 de maio de 2017

(2)

CENÁRIO PARA O PIB E PARA A PRODUÇÃO INDUSTRIAL MÉDIAS

DAS RESPECTIVAS AMOSTRAS QUADRO 05

CENÁRIO PARA ÍNDICES DE PREÇOS MÉDIAS DAS RESPECTIVAS

AMOSTRAS QUADRO 21

CENÁRIO DE TAXA DE JUROS MÉDIAS DAS RESPECTIVAS

AMOSTRAS QUADRO 29

CENÁRIO DE TAXA DE CÂMBIO MÉDIAS DAS RESPECTIVAS

AMOSTRAS QUADRO 32

CENÁRIOS PARA INDICADORES FISCAIS MÉDIAS DAS RESPECTIVAS

AMOSTRAS QUADRO 36

CENÁRIOS DE BALANÇA COMERCIAL MÉDIAS DAS RESPECTIVAS

AMOSTRAS QUADRO 43

CENÁRIOS DE INVESTIMENTO DIRETO ESTRANGEIRO E INVESTIMENTOS

EM PORTFOLIO MÉDIAS DAS RESPECTIVAS AMOSTRAS QUADRO 53 CENÁRIOS PARA INDICADORES DO BALANÇO DE PAGAMENTOS MÉDIAS

DAS RESPECTIVAS AMOSTRAS QUADRO 57

ÍNDICE

(3)

FOCUS –

DESTAQUE PARA AS

ALTERAÇÕES OCORRIDAS EM RELAÇÃO À PESQUISA

DE 10/04/2015

05/05/2017

28/04/2017

(4)

RELATÓRIO FOCUS –

 Atividade – As projeções para o crescimento PIB neste ano e no próximo foram ligeiramente ajustadas. A mediana das projeções para 2017 passou de 0,46% para 0,47%, e a média subiu de 0,47% para 0,49%. Para 2018, a mediana permaneceu em 2,50%, enquanto a média foi ajustada de 2,53% para 2,49%.

 Juros – As medianas das projeções para a taxa Selic para 2017 e 2018 seguiram em 8,50%. As médias das projeções sofreram ligeiras alterações, de 8,55% para 8,54% em 2017 e de 8,57% para 8,56% em 2018.

 IPCA – A mediana das projeções para o IPCA em 2017 recuou de 4,03% para 4,01%, ao passo que sua média caiu de 4,00% para 3,98%. Já para 2018, a mediana subiu de 4,30% para 4,39%, enquanto a média avançou de 4,33% para 4,35%.

 IGP-M – Para 2017, a mediana das projeções caiu de 3,71% para 2,66%, e a média recuou de 2,83% para 2,75%. Para 2018, a mediana e a média se mantiveram inalteradas, indicando altas de 4,50% e 4,63%, respectivamente.

 Câmbio – Para o final de 2017, a mediana das projeções da taxa de câmbio permaneceu em R$/US$ 3,23, enquanto a média foi revisada de R$/US$ 3,25 para R$/US$ 3,24. Para 2018, a mediana subiu de R$/US$ 3,38 para R$/US$ 3,40 e a média seguiu apontando para R$/US$ 3,36.

 Produção industrial – Para 2017, a mediana das projeções subiu de 1,47% para 1,49%, ao passo que sua média foi ajustada de 1,51% para 1,46%. Para 2018, a mediana permaneceu em 2,50%, enquanto que sua média recuou de 2,87%

para 2,85%.

05/05/2017

(5)

CENÁRIO PARA O PIB E PARA A PRODUÇÃO

INDUSTRIAL - MÉDIAS DAS RESPECTIVAS

AMOSTRAS

(6)

1.24

1.10

0.76

0.40 0.24 0.49

0.82 1.01

1.34 1.26

0.94

0.47

0.50

0.49

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80

13 /0 9/ 15 13 /1 0/ 15 12 /1 1/ 15 12 /1 2/ 15 11 /0 1/ 16 10 /0 2/ 16 11 /0 3/ 16 10 /0 4/ 16 10 /0 5/ 16 09 /0 6/ 16 09 /0 7/ 16 08 /0 8/ 16 07 /0 9/ 16 07 /1 0/ 16 06 /1 1/ 16 06 /1 2/ 16 05 /0 1/ 17 04 /0 2/ 17 06 /0 3/ 17 05 /0 4/ 17 05 /0 5/ 17

0.56 0.73

0.71 0.90

0.70

0.58

0.34

0.36 0.30

0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00

13/09/15 13/10/15 12/11/15 12/12/15 11/01/16 10/02/16 11/03/16 10/04/16 10/05/16 09/06/16 09/07/16 08/08/16 07/09/16 07/10/16 06/11/16 06/12/16 05/01/17 04/02/17 06/03/17 05/04/17 05/05/17

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA O PIB 2017

(anual, %)

(7)

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA O PIB 2018

(anual, %)

2.29

2.15

1.88 1.79

1.69 1.56

1.50

1.85

2.11

2.30 2.28

2.32

2.47 2.49

1.30 1.70 2.10 2.50

15 /0 6/ 15 15 /0 7/ 15 14 /0 8/ 15 13 /0 9/ 15 13 /1 0/ 15 12 /1 1/ 15 12 /1 2/ 15 11 /0 1/ 16 10 /0 2/ 16 11 /0 3/ 16 10 /0 4/ 16 10 /0 5/ 16 09 /0 6/ 16 09 /0 7/ 16 08 /0 8/ 16 07 /0 9/ 16 07 /1 0/ 16 06 /1 1/ 16 06 /1 2/ 16 05 /0 1/ 17 04 /0 2/ 17 06 /0 3/ 17 05 /0 4/ 17 05 /0 5/ 17

0.47 0.63

0.74

0.52

0.66

0.62

0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80

13/09/15 13/10/15 12/11/15 12/12/15 11/01/16 10/02/16 11/03/16 10/04/16 10/05/16 09/06/16 09/07/16 08/08/16 07/09/16 07/10/16 06/11/16 06/12/16 05/01/17 04/02/17 06/03/17 05/04/17 05/05/17

(8)

-0.23

7.57

3.92

1.76

2.74

0.50

-3.81 -3.60

0.49

2.49

-4.7 -2.7 -0.7 1.3 3.3 5.3 7.3 9.3

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*

Efetivo

Expectativa do mercado

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA O PIB

(anual, %)

(9)

0.83

0.20

0.57

-0.65

-1.44

-1.70

-0.43

0.12 -0.57

1.58

1.25 0.48 0.75

-2.20 -1.70 -1.20 -0.70 -0.20 0.30 0.80 1.30 1.80 2.30 2.80

13 /0 9/ 15 13 /1 0/ 15 12 /1 1/ 15 12 /1 2/ 15 11 /0 1/ 16 10 /0 2/ 16 11 /0 3/ 16 10 /0 4/ 16 10 /0 5/ 16 09 /0 6/ 16 09 /0 7/ 16 08 /0 8/ 16 07 /0 9/ 16 07 /1 0/ 16 06 /1 1/ 16 06 /1 2/ 16 05 /0 1/ 17 04 /0 2/ 17 06 /0 3/ 17 05 /0 4/ 17 05 /0 5/ 17

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA O PIB INDUSTRIAL 2017

(anual, %)

(10)

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA O PIB INDUSTRIAL 2018

(anual, %)

2.01

1.28 1.32

-0.30

-1.07 0.25

2.03

1.61

2.01

2.68 2.88

-2.20 -1.70 -1.20 -0.70 -0.20 0.30 0.80 1.30 1.80 2.30 2.80 3.30

15 /0 6/ 15 15 /0 7/ 15 14 /0 8/ 15 13 /0 9/ 15 13 /1 0/ 15 12 /1 1/ 15 12 /1 2/ 15 11 /0 1/ 16 10 /0 2/ 16 11 /0 3/ 16 10 /0 4/ 16 10 /0 5/ 16 09 /0 6/ 16 09 /0 7/ 16 08 /0 8/ 16 07 /0 9/ 16 07 /1 0/ 16 06 /1 1/ 16 06 /1 2/ 16 05 /0 1/ 17 04 /0 2/ 17 06 /0 3/ 17 05 /0 4/ 17 05 /0 5/ 17

(11)

-4.80

10.39

4.10

0.08

1.76

-1.51

-6.47

-3.80

0.75

2.88

-7.6 -5.6 -3.6 -1.6 0.4 2.4 4.4 6.4 8.4 10.4

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*

Efetivo

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA O PIB INDUSTRIAL

(anual, %)

(12)

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA A PRODUÇÃO INDUSTRIAL 2017

(anual, %)

1.75 2.23

0.46 0.76

1.54

1.72

1.18

1.49

1.12

0.98 1.29 1.46

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

13 /0 9/ 15 13 /1 0/ 15 12 /1 1/ 15 12 /1 2/ 15 11 /0 1/ 16 10 /0 2/ 16 11 /0 3/ 16 10 /0 4/ 16 10 /0 5/ 16 09 /0 6/ 16 09 /0 7/ 16 08 /0 8/ 16 07 /0 9/ 16 07 /1 0/ 16 06 /1 1/ 16 06 /1 2/ 16 05 /0 1/ 17 04 /0 2/ 17 06 /0 3/ 17 05 /0 4/ 17 05 /0 5/ 17

(13)

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA A PRODUÇÃO INDUSTRIAL 2018

(anual, %)

2.42

2.07

1.39

1.72

2.26

1.90

2.39 2.63

2.95

2.85

1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4

20 /1 1/ 15 04 /1 2/ 15 18 /1 2/ 15 01 /0 1/ 16 15 /0 1/ 16 29 /0 1/ 16 12 /0 2/ 16 26 /0 2/ 16 11 /0 3/ 16 25 /0 3/ 16 08 /0 4/ 16 22 /0 4/ 16 06 /0 5/ 16 20 /0 5/ 16 03 /0 6/ 16 17 /0 6/ 16 01 /0 7/ 16 15 /0 7/ 16 29 /0 7/ 16 12 /0 8/ 16 26 /0 8/ 16 09 /0 9/ 16 23 /0 9/ 16 07 /1 0/ 16 21 /1 0/ 16 04 /1 1/ 16 18 /1 1/ 16 02 /1 2/ 16 16 /1 2/ 16 30 /1 2/ 16 13 /0 1/ 17 27 /0 1/ 17 10 /0 2/ 17 24 /0 2/ 17 10 /0 3/ 17 24 /0 3/ 17 07 /0 4/ 17 21 /0 4/ 17 05 /0 5/ 17

(14)

-7.12

10.22

0.41

-2.30

2.02

-3.30

-8.30

-6.60

1.46

2.85

-10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*

Efetivo

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA A PRODUÇÃO INDUSTRIAL

(anual, %)

(15)

2.89

2.43 2.46 2.66

2.39 2.66

1.92 2.35

1.81 2.08

1.85 2.05

2.68 3.04

4.22 5.39

5.87

1.40 1.80 2.20 2.60 3.00 3.40 3.80 4.20 4.60 5.00 5.40 5.80

13 /0 9/ 15 13 /1 0/ 15 12 /1 1/ 15 12 /1 2/ 15 11 /0 1/ 16 10 /0 2/ 16 11 /0 3/ 16 10 /0 4/ 16 10 /0 5/ 16 09 /0 6/ 16 09 /0 7/ 16 08 /0 8/ 16 07 /0 9/ 16 07 /1 0/ 16 06 /1 1/ 16 06 /1 2/ 16 05 /0 1/ 17 04 /0 2/ 17 06 /0 3/ 17 05 /0 4/ 17 05 /0 5/ 17

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA O PIB AGROPECUÁRIO 2017

(anual, %)

(16)

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA O PIB AGROPECUÁRIO 2018

(anual, %)

2.94 2.94

2.71

2.81

2.88

3.15

3.03

2.66

3.11 3.06

2.49

2.74

2.30 2.50 2.70 2.90 3.10 3.30

13 /0 9/ 15 13 /1 0/ 15 12 /1 1/ 15 12 /1 2/ 15 11 /0 1/ 16 10 /0 2/ 16 11 /0 3/ 16 10 /0 4/ 16 10 /0 5/ 16 09 /0 6/ 16 09 /0 7/ 16 08 /0 8/ 16 07 /0 9/ 16 07 /1 0/ 16 06 /1 1/ 16 06 /1 2/ 16 05 /0 1/ 17 04 /0 2/ 17 06 /0 3/ 17 05 /0 4/ 17 05 /0 5/ 17

(17)

-3.78

6.79

5.64

-2.51

7.88

2.79

1.78

-6.60

5.87

2.74

-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*

Efetivo

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA O PIB AGROPECUÁRIO

(anual, %)

(18)

1.23

0.85

0.18

0.43

-0.04

0.34

0.25 0.58

-0.26

0.62

-0.04 0.02

-0.90 -0.40 0.10 0.60 1.10 1.60 2.10

13 /0 9/ 15 13 /1 0/ 15 12 /1 1/ 15 12 /1 2/ 15 11 /0 1/ 16 10 /0 2/ 16 11 /0 3/ 16 10 /0 4/ 16 10 /0 5/ 16 09 /0 6/ 16 09 /0 7/ 16 08 /0 8/ 16 07 /0 9/ 16 07 /1 0/ 16 06 /1 1/ 16 06 /1 2/ 16 05 /0 1/ 17 04 /0 2/ 17 06 /0 3/ 17 05 /0 4/ 17 05 /0 5/ 17

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA O PIB SERVIÇOS 2017

(anual, %)

(19)

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA O PIB SERVIÇOS 2018

(anual, %)

1.72

1.69

1.21

1.02

0.68

0.95 1.21

1.62 1.40

1.87

1.58

1.97 2.00

0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00

15 /0 6/ 15 15 /0 7/ 15 14 /0 8/ 15 13 /0 9/ 15 13 /1 0/ 15 12 /1 1/ 15 12 /1 2/ 15 11 /0 1/ 16 10 /0 2/ 16 11 /0 3/ 16 10 /0 4/ 16 10 /0 5/ 16 09 /0 6/ 16 09 /0 7/ 16 08 /0 8/ 16 07 /0 9/ 16 07 /1 0/ 16 06 /1 1/ 16 06 /1 2/ 16 05 /0 1/ 17 04 /0 2/ 17 06 /0 3/ 17 05 /0 4/ 17 05 /0 5/ 17

(20)

1.93

5.79

3.36

2.38 2.53

0.99

-2.53

-2.70

0.02

2.00

-3.7 -2.7 -1.7 -0.7 0.3 1.3 2.3 3.3 4.3 5.3 6.3

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*

Efetivo

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA O PIB SERVIÇOS

(anual, %)

(21)

CENÁRIO PARA ÍNDICES DE PREÇOS - MÉDIAS

DAS RESPECTIVAS

AMOSTRAS

(22)

4.98

5.25 5.34

6.05

5.77

5.46

5.47

5.21

4.98

4.96

4.74

3.98 4.0

4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0

13 /0 9/ 15 13 /1 0/ 15 12 /1 1/ 15 12 /1 2/ 15 11 /0 1/ 16 10 /0 2/ 16 11 /0 3/ 16 10 /0 4/ 16 10 /0 5/ 16 09 /0 6/ 16 09 /0 7/ 16 08 /0 8/ 16 07 /0 9/ 16 07 /1 0/ 16 06 /1 1/ 16 06 /1 2/ 16 05 /0 1/ 17 04 /0 2/ 17 06 /0 3/ 17 05 /0 4/ 17 05 /0 5/ 17

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA O IPCA 2017

(anual, %)

(23)

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA O IPCA 2018

(anual, %)

5.02

5.03

5.56

5.46

4.99

4.66

4.59

4.30 4.35 4.50 4.70 4.90 5.10 5.30 5.50 5.70

06 /1 1/ 15 20 /1 1/ 15 04 /1 2/ 15 18 /1 2/ 15 01 /0 1/ 16 15 /0 1/ 16 29 /0 1/ 16 12 /0 2/ 16 26 /0 2/ 16 11 /0 3/ 16 25 /0 3/ 16 08 /0 4/ 16 22 /0 4/ 16 06 /0 5/ 16 20 /0 5/ 16 03 /0 6/ 16 17 /0 6/ 16 01 /0 7/ 16 15 /0 7/ 16 29 /0 7/ 16 12 /0 8/ 16 26 /0 8/ 16 09 /0 9/ 16 23 /0 9/ 16 07 /1 0/ 16 21 /1 0/ 16 04 /1 1/ 16 18 /1 1/ 16 02 /1 2/ 16 16 /1 2/ 16 30 /1 2/ 16 13 /0 1/ 17 27 /0 1/ 17 10 /0 2/ 17 24 /0 2/ 17 10 /0 3/ 17 24 /0 3/ 17 07 /0 4/ 17 21 /0 4/ 17 05 /0 5/ 17

(24)

4.31

5.91

6.50

5.84 5.91

6.41

10.67

6.29

3.98

4.35

2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*

Efetivo

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA O IPCA

(anual, %)

(25)

5.25 5.31 5.36 5.32

5.46

5.62 5.70

5.60

5.75 5.68

5.52

5.57 5.39

5.27

5.375.28 4.96

4.59

2.75

2.00 2.20 2.40 2.60 2.80 3.00 3.20 3.40 3.60 3.80 4.00 4.20 4.40 4.60 4.80 5.00 5.20 5.40 5.60 5.80

13 /0 9/ 15 13 /1 0/ 15 12 /1 1/ 15 12 /1 2/ 15 11 /0 1/ 16 10 /0 2/ 16 11 /0 3/ 16 10 /0 4/ 16 10 /0 5/ 16 09 /0 6/ 16 09 /0 7/ 16 08 /0 8/ 16 07 /0 9/ 16 07 /1 0/ 16 06 /1 1/ 16 06 /1 2/ 16 05 /0 1/ 17 04 /0 2/ 17 06 /0 3/ 17 05 /0 4/ 17 05 /0 5/ 17

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA O IGP-M 2017

(anual, %)

(26)

4.95

5.08

5.32 5.29

5.22 5.16

4.98

5.06

4.87

4.89

4.75

4.81

4.63 4.60

4.70 4.80 4.90 5.00 5.10 5.20 5.30 5.40

13 /0 9/ 15 13 /1 0/ 15 12 /1 1/ 15 12 /1 2/ 15 11 /0 1/ 16 10 /0 2/ 16 11 /0 3/ 16 10 /0 4/ 16 10 /0 5/ 16 09 /0 6/ 16 09 /0 7/ 16 08 /0 8/ 16 07 /0 9/ 16 07 /1 0/ 16 06 /1 1/ 16 06 /1 2/ 16 05 /0 1/ 17 04 /0 2/ 17 06 /0 3/ 17 05 /0 4/ 17 05 /0 5/ 17

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA O IGP-M 2018

(anual, %)

(27)

-1.71

11.32

5.10

7.82

5.51

3.67

10.72

7.17

2.75

4.63

-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*

Efetivo

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA O IGP-M

(anual, %)

(28)

CENÁRIO DE TAXAS DE JUROS - MÉDIAS DAS

RESPECTIVAS

AMOSTRAS

(29)

8.75

10.75 11.00

7.25

10.00

11.75

14.25

13.75

8.54 8.56

6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5 13.5 14.5 15.5

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*

Efetivo

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA A TAXA SELIC

(ao ano, %)

(30)

4.26 4.57

4.23

1.33

3.86

5.02

7.49

9.40

4.02 4.09

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*

Efetivo

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA JUROS REAIS

(ao ano, %)

(31)

CENÁRIO DE TAXA DE CÂMBIO - MÉDIAS DAS

RESPECTIVAS

AMOSTRAS

(32)

4.01

4.11

4.20

4.37

4.07

3.80

3.60

3.34

3.47

3.24 3.1

3.5 3.9 4.3

13 /0 9/ 15 13 /1 0/ 15 12 /1 1/ 15 12 /1 2/ 15 11 /0 1/ 16 10 /0 2/ 16 11 /0 3/ 16 10 /0 4/ 16 10 /0 5/ 16 09 /0 6/ 16 09 /0 7/ 16 08 /0 8/ 16 07 /0 9/ 16 07 /1 0/ 16 06 /1 1/ 16 06 /1 2/ 16 05 /0 1/ 17 04 /0 2/ 17 06 /0 3/ 17 05 /0 4/ 17 05 /0 5/ 17

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA A TAXA DE CÂMBIO 2017

(fim de período , R$/US$)

(33)

4.01

4.17

4.30 4.28

3.99

3.90 3.73 3.67

3.62

3.54 3.51

3.36

3.1 3.5 3.9 4.3

13 /0 9/ 15 13 /1 0/ 15 12 /1 1/ 15 12 /1 2/ 15 11 /0 1/ 16 10 /0 2/ 16 11 /0 3/ 16 10 /0 4/ 16 10 /0 5/ 16 09 /0 6/ 16 09 /0 7/ 16 08 /0 8/ 16 07 /0 9/ 16 07 /1 0/ 16 06 /1 1/ 16 06 /1 2/ 16 05 /0 1/ 17 04 /0 2/ 17 06 /0 3/ 17 05 /0 4/ 17 05 /0 5/ 17

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA A TAXA DE CÂMBIO 2018

(fim de período, R$/US$)

(34)

1.74 1.67

1.88

2.08

2.35

2.65

3.96

3.25 _3.24 ^3.36

1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.5

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*

Efetivo

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA A TAXA DE CÂMBIO

(fim de período, R$/US$)

(35)

CENÁRIOS PARA

INDICADORES FISCAIS - MÉDIAS DAS

RESPECTIVAS AMOSTRAS

(36)

0.70

0.44

-0.03

-0.56

-1.37 -1.35

-1.92

-1.96

-2.18

-2.22 -2.5

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1

13 /0 9/ 15 13 /1 0/ 15 12 /1 1/ 15 12 /1 2/ 15 11 /0 1/ 16 10 /0 2/ 16 11 /0 3/ 16 10 /0 4/ 16 10 /0 5/ 16 09 /0 6/ 16 09 /0 7/ 16 08 /0 8/ 16 07 /0 9/ 16 07 /1 0/ 16 06 /1 1/ 16 06 /1 2/ 16 05 /0 1/ 17 04 /0 2/ 17 06 /0 3/ 17 05 /0 4/ 17 05 /0 5/ 17

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA SUPERÁVIT PRIMÁRIO 2017

(% do PIB)

(37)

-0.94

-1.35

-1.26

-1.60

-1.52

-1.75

-1.8

-1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6

15 /0 7/ 16 29 /0 7/ 16 12 /0 8/ 16 26 /0 8/ 16 09 /0 9/ 16 23 /0 9/ 16 07 /1 0/ 16 21 /1 0/ 16 04 /1 1/ 16 18 /1 1/ 16 02 /1 2/ 16 16 /1 2/ 16 30 /1 2/ 16 13 /0 1/ 17 27 /0 1/ 17 10 /0 2/ 17 24 /0 2/ 17 10 /0 3/ 17 24 /0 3/ 17 07 /0 4/ 17 21 /0 4/ 17 05 /0 5/ 17

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA SUPERÁVIT PRIMÁRIO 2018

(% do PIB)

(38)

1.94

2.62

2.94

2.18

1.72

-0.57

-1.88

-2.47 -2.25

-1.75

-3.50 -2.50 -1.50 -0.50 0.50 1.50 2.50 3.50

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*

SUPERÁVIT PRIMÁRIO

(% do PIB)

Efetivo

(39)

39.86 40.52 41.04

40.72

42.25

46.10

45.48

48.93

47.83

51.22

51.12

38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54

13 /0 9/ 15 13 /1 0/ 15 12 /1 1/ 15 12 /1 2/ 15 11 /0 1/ 16 10 /0 2/ 16 11 /0 3/ 16 10 /0 4/ 16 10 /0 5/ 16 09 /0 6/ 16 09 /0 7/ 16 08 /0 8/ 16 07 /0 9/ 16 07 /1 0/ 16 06 /1 1/ 16 06 /1 2/ 16 05 /0 1/ 17 04 /0 2/ 17 06 /0 3/ 17 05 /0 4/ 17 05 /0 5/ 17

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA DÍVIDA LÍQUIDA 2017

(% do PIB)

(40)

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA DÍVIDA LÍQUIDA 2018

(% do PIB)

38.43 39.43

41.37 42.03

43.77 44.32

45.19

48.80

52.72 51.91 52.86

55.03

53.57

54.72

37.0 39.0 41.0 43.0 45.0 47.0 49.0 51.0 53.0 55.0 57.0

15 /0 6/ 15 15 /0 7/ 15 14 /0 8/ 15 13 /0 9/ 15 13 /1 0/ 15 12 /1 1/ 15 12 /1 2/ 15 11 /0 1/ 16 10 /0 2/ 16 11 /0 3/ 16 10 /0 4/ 16 10 /0 5/ 16 09 /0 6/ 16 09 /0 7/ 16 08 /0 8/ 16 07 /0 9/ 16 07 /1 0/ 16 06 /1 1/ 16 06 /1 2/ 16 05 /0 1/ 17 04 /0 2/ 17 06 /0 3/ 17 05 /0 4/ 17 05 /0 5/ 17

(41)

40.9

38.0

34.5

32.3

30.6

33.1

36.0

45.9

51.1

54.7

30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*

Efetivo

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA DÍVIDA LÍQUIDA

(% do PIB)

(42)

CENÁRIOS DE BALANÇA COMERCIAL - MÉDIAS

DAS RESPECTIVAS

AMOSTRAS

(43)

28.78 31.83 36.82

41.12

39.74

46.97

51.20

50.53

44.91

45.32

47.28

53.69

24.0 30.0 36.0 42.0 48.0 54.0

13 /0 9/ 15 13 /1 0/ 15 12 /1 1/ 15 12 /1 2/ 15 11 /0 1/ 16 10 /0 2/ 16 11 /0 3/ 16 10 /0 4/ 16 10 /0 5/ 16 09 /0 6/ 16 09 /0 7/ 16 08 /0 8/ 16 07 /0 9/ 16 07 /1 0/ 16 06 /1 1/ 16 06 /1 2/ 16 05 /0 1/ 17 04 /0 2/ 17 06 /0 3/ 17 05 /0 4/ 17 05 /0 5/ 17

4.82 4.0

6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

13/09/15 13/10/15 12/11/15 12/12/15 11/01/16 10/02/16 11/03/16 10/04/16 10/05/16 09/06/16 09/07/16 08/08/16 07/09/16 07/10/16 06/11/16 06/12/16 05/01/17 04/02/17 06/03/17 05/04/17 05/05/17

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA BALANÇA COMERCIAL 2017

( US$ bilhões)

(44)

22.50

29.26

31.19

45.98

47.18

41.26

37.43

40.53

18.0 24.0 30.0 36.0 42.0 48.0 54.0

12 /0 6/ 15 03 /0 7/ 15 24 /0 7/ 15 14 /0 8/ 15 04 /0 9/ 15 25 /0 9/ 15 16 /1 0/ 15 06 /1 1/ 15 27 /1 1/ 15 18 /1 2/ 15 08 /0 1/ 16 29 /0 1/ 16 19 /0 2/ 16 11 /0 3/ 16 01 /0 4/ 16 22 /0 4/ 16 13 /0 5/ 16 03 /0 6/ 16 24 /0 6/ 16 15 /0 7/ 16 05 /0 8/ 16 26 /0 8/ 16 16 /0 9/ 16 07 /1 0/ 16 28 /1 0/ 16 18 /1 1/ 16 09 /1 2/ 16 30 /1 2/ 16 20 /0 1/ 17 10 /0 2/ 17 03 /0 3/ 17 24 /0 3/ 17 14 /0 4/ 17 05 /0 5/ 17

10.87

6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0

13/09/15 13/10/15 12/11/15 12/12/15 11/01/16 10/02/16 11/03/16 10/04/16 10/05/16 09/06/16 09/07/16 08/08/16 07/09/16 07/10/16 06/11/16 06/12/16 05/01/17 04/02/17 06/03/17 05/04/17 05/05/17

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA BALANÇA COMERCIAL 2018

( US$ bilhões)

(45)

25.3

20.1

29.8

19.4

2.6

-6.3

19.7

47.7

53.7

41.3

-9.5 -5.5 -1.5 2.5 6.5 10.5 14.5 18.5 22.5 26.5 30.5 34.5 38.5 42.5 46.5 50.5 54.5

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*

Efetivo

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA BALANÇA COMERCIAL

( US$ bilhões)

(46)

152.99

201.92

256.04

242.60 242.18

224.60

191.10

185.20

204.09 208.99

70.0 100.0 130.0 160.0 190.0 220.0 250.0 280.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*

Efetivo

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA EXPORTAÇÕES

( US$ bilhões)

(47)

9.17% 9.15%

9.80% 9.86% 9.83%

9.15%

10.61%

10.38%

9.88% 9.80%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*

Efetivo

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA EXPORTAÇÕES/PIB

( %)

(48)

127.7

181.8

226.2 223.2

239.6

230.9

171.4

137.5

150.4

167.7

30 80 130 180 230 280

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*

Efetivo

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA IMPORTAÇÕES

( US$ bilhões)

(49)

7.65%

8.23%

8.66%

9.08%

9.73%

9.40% 9.51%

7.70%

7.28%

7.87%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*

Efetivo

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA IMPORTAÇÕES/PIB

( %)

(50)

280.7

383.7

482.2

465.8 481.8

455.5

362.5

322.7

354.5

376.7

100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*

Efetivo

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA CORRENTE DE COMÉRCIO

( US$ bilhões)

(51)

16.8%

17.4%

18.5% 18.9%

19.6%

18.5%

20.1%

18.1%

17.2% 17.7%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

22.0%

24.0%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*

Efetivo

EXPECTATIVA DO MERCADO PARA CORRENTE DE COMÉRCIO

( % do PIB)

(52)

CENÁRIOS DE INVESTIMENTO ESTRANGEIRO DIRETO -

MÉDIAS DAS RESPECTIVAS

AMOSTRAS

(53)

60.26

60.62 57.92 58.89

57.69

56.00 59.01 61.13 63.00

64.79

65.48 68.92 74.14

75.56

52.0 56.0 60.0 64.0 68.0 72.0 76.0 80.0

13 /0 9/ 15 13 /1 0/ 15 12 /1 1/ 15 12 /1 2/ 15 11 /0 1/ 16 10 /0 2/ 16 11 /0 3/ 16 10 /0 4/ 16 10 /0 5/ 16 09 /0 6/ 16 09 /0 7/ 16 08 /0 8/ 16 07 /0 9/ 16 07 /1 0/ 16 06 /1 1/ 16 06 /1 2/ 16 05 /0 1/ 17 04 /0 2/ 17 06 /0 3/ 17 05 /0 4/ 17 05 /0 5/ 17

EXPECTATIVA PARA INVESTIMENTO ESTRANGEIRO 2017

( US$ bilhões)

(54)

EXPECTATIVA PARA INVESTIMENTO ESTRANGEIRO 2018

( US$ bilhões)

58.99

61.79

57.74

65.71

66.88

64.00

70.28

68.90

75.54

76.48

55.0 59.0 63.0 67.0 71.0 75.0 79.0

12 /1 1/ 15 12 /1 2/ 15 11 /0 1/ 16 10 /0 2/ 16 11 /0 3/ 16 10 /0 4/ 16 10 /0 5/ 16 09 /0 6/ 16 09 /0 7/ 16 08 /0 8/ 16 07 /0 9/ 16 07 /1 0/ 16 06 /1 1/ 16 06 /1 2/ 16 05 /0 1/ 17 04 /0 2/ 17 06 /0 3/ 17 05 /0 4/ 17 05 /0 5/ 17

(55)

25.9

48.5

66.7 65.3

64.0

62.5

_63.0

78.8 75.6 76.5

11.0 21.0 31.0 41.0 51.0 61.0 71.0 81.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*

Efetivo

EXPECTATIVA PARA INVESTIMENTO ESTRANGEIRO

( US$ bilhões)

(56)

CENÁRIOS PARA

INDICADORES DO BALANÇO DE PAGAMENTOS - MÉDIAS

DAS RESPECTIVAS

AMOSTRAS

(57)

-48.11 -42.93

-34.40 -28.96

-13.74

-16.91

-14.87

-20.54

-21.46

-25.88 -24.15

-69.0 -61.0 -53.0 -45.0 -37.0 -29.0 -21.0 -13.0

11/09/15 25/09/15 09/10/15 23/10/15 06/11/15 20/11/15 04/12/15 18/12/15 01/01/16 15/01/16 29/01/16 12/02/16 26/02/16 11/03/16 25/03/16 08/04/16 22/04/16 06/05/16 20/05/16 03/06/16 17/06/16 01/07/16 15/07/16 29/07/16 12/08/16 26/08/16 09/09/16 23/09/16 07/10/16 21/10/16 04/11/16 18/11/16 02/12/16 16/12/16 30/12/16 13/01/17 27/01/17 10/02/17 24/02/17 10/03/17 24/03/17 07/04/17 21/04/17 05/05/17

EXPECTATIVA PARA CONTA CORRENTE 2017

( US$ bilhões)

(58)

EXPECTATIVA PARA CONTA CORRENTE 2018

(US$ bilhões)

-71.16 -65.64

-45.43

-37.47

-33.92

-15.60

-23.72

-22.80

-28.91 -23.64

-28.94

-35.50

-37.83

-77.0 -69.0 -61.0 -53.0 -45.0 -37.0 -29.0 -21.0 -13.0

12 /0 6/ 15 03 /0 7/ 15 24 /0 7/ 15 14 /0 8/ 15 04 /0 9/ 15 25 /0 9/ 15 16 /1 0/ 15 06 /1 1/ 15 27 /1 1/ 15 18 /1 2/ 15 08 /0 1/ 16 29 /0 1/ 16 19 /0 2/ 16 11 /0 3/ 16 01 /0 4/ 16 22 /0 4/ 16 13 /0 5/ 16 03 /0 6/ 16 24 /0 6/ 16 15 /0 7/ 16 05 /0 8/ 16 26 /0 8/ 16 16 /0 9/ 16 07 /1 0/ 16 28 /1 0/ 16 18 /1 1/ 16 09 /1 2/ 16 30 /1 2/ 16 20 /0 1/ 17 10 /0 2/ 17 03 /0 3/ 17 24 /0 3/ 17 14 /0 4/ 17 05 /0 5/ 17

(59)

-24.3

-47.3

-52.5 -54.3

-81.4

-104.0

-61.4

-23.5 -24.2

-37.8

-110.0 -100.0 -90.0 -80.0 -70.0 -60.0 -50.0 -40.0 -30.0 -20.0 -10.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*

Efetivo

EXPECTATIVA PARA CONTA CORRENTE

( US$ bilhões)

(60)

-1.46%

-2.14% -2.01%

-2.21%

-3.30%

-4.23%

-3.41%

-1.32% ^-1.17%

-1.77%

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*

Efetivo

EXPECTATIVA PARA CONTA CORRENTE/PIB

( % do PIB)

(61)

QUADRO SÍNTESE DE PROJEÇÕES FOCUS

(média das projeções)

* Estimativas

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*

ATIVIDADE, INFLAÇÃO E JUROS

PIB (%) -0.2 7.6 3.9 1.8 2.7 0.5 -3.8 -3.6 0.5 2.5

Agropecuária (%) -3.8 6.8 5.6 -2.5 7.9 2.8 1.8 -6.6 5.9 2.8

Indústria (%) -4.8 10.4 4.1 0.1 1.8 -1.5 -6.5 -3.8 0.7 2.9

Serviços (%) 1.9 5.8 3.4 2.4 2.5 1.0 -2.5 -2.7 0.0 2.0

PIB (R$) - bilhões (Preços Correntes) 3,333 3,886 4,374 4,806 5,316 5,779 6,000 6,217 6,569 7,120 PIB (US$) - bilhões 1,668.5 2,207.7 2,611.4 2,459.4 2,463.8 2,455.8 1,801.7 1,785.0 2,065.8 2,138.2

População - milhões 193.5 195.5 197.4 199.2 201.0 202.8 204.5 206.1 207.7 209.2

PIB per capita - US$ 8,469 11,084 13,229 12,345 12,255 12,110 8,808 8,644 9,737 10,148

Produção Industrial - IBGE (%) -7.1 10.2 0.4 -2.3 2.0 -3.3 -8.3 -6.6 1.5 2.9

IPCA - IBGE (%) 4.31 5.91 6.50 5.84 5.91 6.41 10.67 6.29 4.00 4.33

IPC - FIPE (%) 3.65 6.40 5.81 5.11 3.90 5.20 11.07 6.54 3.91 4.52

IGP-M - FGV (%) -1.71 11.32 5.10 7.82 5.51 3.67 10.72 7.17 2.83 4.63

IGP-DI - FGV (%) -1.44 11.32 5.00 8.10 5.50 3.80 10.84 7.18 2.87 4.68

Taxa Selic (final de período) % 8.75 10.75 11.00 7.25 10.00 11.75 14.25 13.75 8.55 8.57 Taxa Selic real / IPCA (acumulado 12 meses) % 4.3 4.6 4.2 1.3 3.9 5.0 7.5 9.4 4.0 4.1