Mercados-Alvo Para Exportação de Alimentos

Mercados-Alvo Para

Exportação de Alimentos

Prof. Dr. Marcos Fava Neves

Faculdade de Administraçao (FEA/RP) – Universidade de São Paulo, desde 1995 Escola de Administração de Empresas (EAESP/FGV), desde 2018

Center for Agricultural Business - Purdue University (Indiana/USA), desde 2013 PAA – FAUBA – Universidade de Buenos Aires, desde 2006

Criador da Markestrat (www.markestrat.com.br) em 2004 Especialista em planejamento estratégico no agronegócio

Food Security

“the state of being without reliable access to a sufficient quantity of affordable, nutritious food” FAO

2

Yield Gap

Sustainability

Global Population Distribution

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019

Global Population Annual Rates Growth

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019

Ranking of the Most Populous Countries and Projections

(Numbers in Parentheses Refer to Total Population in Millions)

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019

Annual Per Capita GDP Growth (2019-2028)

Note: SSA is Sub-Saharan Africa; LAC is Latin America and Caribbean; CAC is Central America and Caribbean.

Fonte: OECD/FAO (2019), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”, OECD Agriculture statistics (database)

Urban x Rural Population in the World

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2018a). World Urbanization Prospects 2018.

9

What’s on the World’s Menu?

Daily Calories per Person by Type of Food

How to put all these in a

model?

MAPEA – Mercados-Alvo Para Exportação de Alimentos

CHINA

✓ Population: 1.43 trillion (1st_{globally in 2019)}

✓ Annual rate of population change: +0.4% (2019) ✓ GDP: US$13.61 billion (2nd _{globally in 2018)}

✓ GDP per capita: US$ 9,580.2 (70th _{globally in 2018)}

GDP Evolution

13.61 trillion

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). The Word Bank (2019).

China as the Center of the World...

GDP Evolution by Country 1960-2017

Number of Companies in Global Fortune 500 by

_Country

Source: McKinsey The Global Economy: Navigating a World of Disruption

Urban Population x Rural Population in China

Source: McKinsey The Global Economy: Navigating a World of Disruption

China's GDP Growth

Gradual Adjustment to Sustainable Level…

Chinese consumption continues to grow (kg/capita), more gradual and in a sustainable rhythm fueled by

swine fever…

Source: OECD, FAO

Meat Consumption in China

“The Food Bridge Concept”

✓ Lacks investment capacity and logistics. ✓ Can rapidly expand food production.

✓ Has several possibilities for international investments. ✓ Has low population/land availability ratio, and around

100 million hectares available for development.

✓ It’s the world’s largest exporter of beef, poultry,

soybeans, juices, sugar, biofuels, coffee and in 5 - 10 years will be the major food exporter of the most important food chains.

✓ Sufficient supply of water for agriculture.

✓ Is a net producer and exporter of the sugarcane-based

ethanol, used as E100 and E25 (100% ethanol cars and 25% ethanol in gasoline).

✓ Has one of the highest mixed-raced populations

✓ in the world and a long-term acceptance of the Chine

secommunity living in Brazil.

✓ The federal government has given great importance to

relations with China.

✓ Has the largest capacity for international investments and

logistics.

✓ Faces an incredible growth of income and ✓ urbanization and will need more food. ✓ Has a large number of investors to invest ✓ and take advantage of opportunities in Brazil.

✓ Low levels of new land available for food production and is

thinking of investing abroad to guarantee food security. Scarcity of water for agriculture in some areas, and environmental pressures.

✓ In 5 - 10 years will need quantities of food from abroad and

most of this food will come from Brazil.

✓ Will need to expand biofuels production and usage toward

a cleaner environment, adding biofuels to gasoline (E5 or E10%) and other. These biofuels can be produced by Chinese investments in Brazil and Africa.

✓ Has a large Chinese community living in Brazil ✓ for several years.

✓ Very good relationship on a federal level with Brazil.

BRAZIL

CHINA

Source: MDIC

With higher Chinese demand for agricultural products that had USA origin, numbers tend

to increase.

China | The Biggest Partner of Brazil (2018)

Os EUA como Mercado Importador do Agro

(Gráficos do USDA)

Percentual do total consumido que é importado

Valores importados em dólares

Aula 05 - Mercados Alvo para Exportação

Framework Modelo MAPEA

Principais Países

Importadores e Valores Variáveis para Projeções das Importações

Estimativas para os Próximos 10 Anos

Desenho de Estratégias Públicas e Privadas

1 - Principais Produtos Importados pelos Países

2 - Evolução das Importações em Quantidades e Valores nos Últimos 10 anos

1 - Populações LYGU (tamanho, idade, crescimento e urbanização

2 - Geração Crescente de Renda (PIB) 3 - Evolução na Distribuição de Renda 4 - Recursos Valiosos de Exportação 5 - Escassez de Recursos Produtivos Agrícolas

6 - Legislação Favorável às Importações 7 - Evolução de Política de Políticas de Biocombustíveis

8 - Presença de Canais de Distribuição e Logística para Importações

9 - Taxa de Câmbio Favorável às Importações (Valorizada) 10 - Comportamento do Consumidor Favorável ao Consumo 1 - Elaborar as Projeções por Produtos 2 - Elaborar as Projeções Agregadas de Importações dos Próximos 10 Anos 1 - Estratégias Públicas de Aberturas de Mercados e Construções de Acordos Comerciais, Sanitários e Outros 2 - Estratégias Público-Privadas de Entradas em Mercados 3 - Estratégias Privadas de Entradas em Mercados

For Each of These Factors We Developed Indicators in Order to Measure and Give

Grades for 10 Emerging Countries:

Factors Indicators Source

1.1 Large populations Number of inhabitants United Nations 1.2 Growing populations Percentage of population growth in the last four years United Nations

1.3 Young populations Percentage of inhabitants up to 14 years old in 2020 United Nations Average growth in the last four years United Nations

1.4 Fast urbanization 2020 urban percentage World Bank Average growth in the last four years United Nations

2. Income generation 2020 annual GDP United Nations Average growth in the last four years United Nations 3. Income distribution Gini index World Bank

4. Valued resources 2020 exports of goods and services and prices World Bank Average growth in the last four years World Bank

Factors Indicators Source

5. Lack of producing resources

Arable land (2020 and 4 years growth) World Bank Water availability World Bank Foreign investments World Bank

6. Regulations that favor food imports

Food import taxes WEF – Global Competitiveness Report Trade barriers WEF – Global Competitiveness Report Stability of governments and institutional environment WEF – Global Competitiveness Report 7. Adoptions of policies towards

blending biofuels to petrol Percentage of biofuels mixed with petrol fuel Global Renewable Fuels Alliance

8. Import distribution channels and feasible logistics

Goods market efficiency WEF – Global Competitiveness Report Transportation infrastructure WEF – Global Competitiveness Report 9. Valued local currency Exhange rates of the last 4 years (dollar) World Bank

10. Consumer Behavior Diet Composition FAO

For Each of These Factors We Developed Indicators in Order to Measure and Give

Grades for 10 Emerging Countries: