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PURE ECONOMIC THEORIES: THE TEMPORARY HALF-TRUTH* Antonio M Silveira** Popular reaction against the economist is part of everyday life in Brazil -- denial of the scientific nature of economics and skepticism about the effectiveness of economic policies are widespread. This state of mind may, however, be more positive than the opposite one which prevailed in the country not more than two decades ago.
There is now hope of attempts at understanding the problem. This paper presents an answer, one that demanded a long and difticuIt time of self-criticism - my own reaction against "economics and the economists" started in the early 1970s, at the height ofthe then so-called Brazilian economic miracle.
Although very serious in Brazil, the problem is universal. Many issues are involved. First, science at most dictates what canDot be done, never what ought to be done. In the case of economics, one hopes for a more modest what sbould Dot be done. To believe the opposite is to fali into technocracy as a modem version oftheocracy.
In the past - but still today in a few countries -, religion used to dictate policies. Nowadays, science replaces religion to different degrees. It is occasionally dominant, as in the Brazilian authoritarism period (1965-1984).
Let me emphasize that technocracy does not mean pure or applied scientists in government. The point is the undue exercise of value judgments, the use of knowledge as a shield to impose one's own values, whether consciously or not. The fact is that a public choice always exists and whoever decides does so in terms ofvalue judgments.
Second, the art of economic policy is primarily the art of politics. Its management is a job for the politician, as is the case of national defense or public health. A good professional economist rarely knows how to make politics, a good pure or applied economic scientist almost never knows.
The abilities, commitments and languages of scientists are distinct and exclusive, and it could not be otherwise. Their education is for research and teaching, and this has nothing to do with the management of policy.
Third, nobody criticizes physics or chemistry, nor even the engineering sciences, when a spacecraft fàils. The problem is never there; it is usua1ly a question of design or
JEL BOO Mcthodology aDd History of Eamomic Thought.
KEYWORDS: Applicability of Theories, Realism, Positive Eamomics, Normative EconolDÍCS, Pule or
Abstract Economic, Social and Applied EconolDÍCS, Art of Economics, Ricardian Vice, Empiricism, Technocracy.
• This paper will bc given at the Sixty Annual Intcmational Conferencc on Socio-Economics (SASE), at
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Hautes Étudcs Commercialcs School of MaMgemcnt, in Paris, July 1'·17, 1994. Thc author thanksJamcs Mulholland for lhe English version,
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CAPES (CoordcoaçIo de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal deNfvel Superior) and IPEA (Instituto de Planejamento Econ6mic:o e Social) for finaDcial support.
•• Professor of Economics at lhe Federal University of Rio de JaDeiro (UFRJ) and at lhe Getulio Vargas FOUDdation (FGV).
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manufacturing, i.e. a problem of the art of engineering. The situation is similar in the relation between economic poücy and its science. This is the theme ofthe paper.
Let me take a popular proverb, "in practice, the theory is different". It makes sense
if the point is to stigmatize a major indetermination of all sciences, particularly of social
sciences. Marshall, in a quotation of Groenewegen (1990, p. xiv), otfers a nice synthesis, "Poütica1 Economy will answer scarcely any social question but scarcely any social question can receive answers independent ofPoütica1 Economy".
The first section is a discussion of this indetermination. The second points to the solution in the development of social economics departments to parallel the pure economics departments, much as happens with engineering and physics .
1. Tbe Indetermination oI Senior
Many elements of reality are ignored or simpüfied in the development ofthe deepest abstract or pure theories, i.e. logics of the phenomenon. This process of abstraction is inherent to the scientitic work, whatever the field of study. So, the physicist deals with ftictionless motion, perfect gas, rigid soüds, etc.
These theoretica1 constructions or constructs do not exist in the real world. They belong to 10gica1ly poSSlble worlds that may be incompletely reproduced in the stylized reality of laboratories. Physics is then of indirect appücability, it is usually only of academic use.
Engineering theories make less abstract worlds. They contain attritions, deformable bodies and almost real gases. Theories that are therefore unable to present the 10gica1 consistency, generality, multiple connection, elegance and simpücity of physics - there is no way to become committed to Qccamls requisites when appücability is aimed for. The theories are parochial, yet sweeping and tota1izing; while disconnected or mutually
inconsistent, they are also directly applicable to our world. They are dialectic or dialogic theories in the sense that they gather together propositions from physics, chemistry and any other sciences, provided that they can eventually be used by the artificer in bis practice.
The commitment of the artificer is in tum restricted to products and processes, theories being of interest insofar as they allow the latter to be developed. The language is that of advocacy, in that the artificer-engineer advocates a solution when presenting bis
project (this is done, of course, within the specifications given and in accordance with the specificities of bis time, country and finn. Exhibit 1 presents a taxonomy of knowledge, showing the features of these three spheres of specialized leaming.
The 10gica1 worlds of the pure economist are peopled by far more abstract constructions than those that exist in physics. Yet we can still say that perfect competition is to perfect gas as economy without govemment is to movement without attrition, or as rigid bodies are to economic men. In the general frame of reference, the scientists of adrninistration would correspond to those of engineerig.
Nevertheless, 50 many areas of appüed economics üe outside administration, the most glaring example of this being the study of economic policy. I shall therefore define social economics as the locus where the pure theories of economics are interlaced with
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those of all the other social sciences that prove relevant for the understanding of any economic reality in all its facets.
As in engineering, 5Ocio-economic theories are less abstract, their world being áialogicai1y pOSSlble. l>ta.lo81cally, tet lt Oe maae clear, m tne sense tnat they preserve (more tban engineering does) the nebulosity or vagueness that is inherently and intensely manifest in the real world; they preserve the "almost" and the "perbaps" of clay-to-day living, rather tban abstractly imposing the Ris" and the Ris not" demanded by logic. Worlds of an intelligent and necessary vagueness, necessary 50 that they can go on grazing reality and thus inform the artificer in bis professional activities.
Acknowledging tbis division of academic work into 10gica1 and dialogica1 spheres of learning -- and the corresponding indirect or direct applicability of theories - is the first crucial step towards understanding what I have called the i1Idetermination of Senior.
However obvious and patent the question may seem, most economic scientists insist on ignoring it. Social economics in correspondence with engineering is not a consciously assirnilated discipline. Quite the opposite, as pure and social economists refuse to
recognize one another as such.
The problem is not 50 great in the field of inert matter, since differences are acknowledged despite the mutua1 intolerance. Pure scientists refer to their applied coneagues as empiricists, technologists, ambiguous, amorphous, etc. Applied scientists
retum the compliments by calUng the others simplicist, unrealistic, irrelevant, parasitic, etc.
Such intolerance really stems from a permanent paradigmatic conflict and scientific
blindn~ the extension ofThomas Kuhn's theory (1971) for clarification ofthe question is obvious.
To retum to the more serious case, pure and social economists waste their energies in such mutual criticism, as if there were substitutibility, rather than complementarity, between spheres of learning. Both ignore the direct or indirect applicability of theories, and what ensues is a confusion of theory and reality. They are both addicted to the Ricardian
vice, as described and 50 baptiz.ed by Schumpeter (1986, pp. 540, 1.171):
They [Senior, Mill anti otMn] merely meant that questions of economic policies always invoNe so many noneconomic elements that they should not be dealt wtth on tM basis of pureI, economic considerations (. .. ) one could only wish that the economista of that (or any)
perlod had never forgotten this piece of wtsdom - had never been gutlty of tM Ricardian VIce.
(. .. ) what we have called above tM Ricardian VIce, namely, the habit of piling a heavy load
of practical conclustons upon a tenuous groundwork, which was unequal to it yet seemed in its simplicity not onlyattractiVe but QUO convincing.
There is still one step left for us to appreciate the whole relevance of tbis
indeterminism of the sciences. Between the worlds of theory and the real world there also exist the specificities dealt with by no theories whatsoever. By embracing theories that are directly and indirectly applicable, science tends the general, the universal, those factors that l 1t was the direct experieoa: in integrated scbools ofbusiDess admiDistration and cconomics - five years as student at the Graduatc School of lDdustrial AdmiDistration, Camegie-Mdlon UnMrsity - and of
engineering and physics - six years on tbe faculty of tbe Aeronautics Technological Institute - tbat led me to tbc first attempt.s at UDderstaDding indetermiDation. I tried to see some meanjng in wbat I pera:ived in
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of necessity appear at every occurrence of lhe phenomenon. On the other hand, the art of science embodies the specificities, and also tends the particular and contingent, everything that may eventually occur at any real manifestation ofthe phenomenon.
The difficu1ty here is in understanding that both the universal and the specific are of importance when rea1ity is at stake. Furthermore, novelties may occur in the composition of the universal with distinct specificities. Novelty in composition is a problem already
evident in chem.istry. Though we know the properties of hydrogen and oxygen, we are unable to derive ali the properties of the composite water. Knowing as we do ali the elements of the hllman body, we still know notbing about man's behaviour. Less dramatically puto for ali that we might know ali the members of a given group, we have no
certainty in predicting their collective concluct .
The difficulty in understanding disappears when we integrate medicine into the general frame of reference. Allow me at this point a memory of my fàther, Doctor Iosé Maria da Silveira Ir. (ponte Nova, 27.11.1908 - Belo Horizonte, 2.10.1988), who defied me with this ethicaI precept of bis vocation: "in the medicaI practice there are no diseases, only patients". The point is that the specificities of the individual may be more important than the generalities of the disease, besides the possible novelty in the composition of both -- the genera1ities belong to the applied theories of medicine, which are to biology more or less as the theories of engineering and social economics are to physics and pure economics.
In any field, the practice belongs to the professional, the artificer, not to the scientist, the academic. Used to dea1ing with generalities, scientists tend in the exercise of the art to relegate specificities to a second plane and prefer general treatments (they often do 50 pretensiously: de minimis non curat praetor, "authorities don't waste time on details", might think lhe addict). In the case ofthe applied scientist the danger is less, but still very serious. The danger is fatal for the pure scientist.
"Those who know, do; those who don't know, teach." This popular saying shows the professi07llll blindness of the non-skilled artificer, or those who fàil to relate theory to practice. The saying nevertheless makes sense as social protection against the scientist addicted to the Ricardian vice - the vice is merely lhe babit of ignoring the indetermination of Senior, yet in the final ana1ysis also points to an iDability to relate theory to practice. The addicted scientist is ignorant of rea1ity, which he mixes up with theory, whereas the limited artificer is ignorant of theories and binds himself to empiricism.
It is worth stressing that the importance of specificities grows as the phenomenon becomes more complex, when we pus from inert matter to life, and from here to society. So it is ironic that social scientists should be unaware of ind~n. It is tragic for economists to ignore it. I have fonnulated it in the following terms in an update and generalization ofSenior (1938, p. 3) and Mill (1877, p. 152-55), (Silveira 1991, p. 79):
The propositions of pure economics, whateve,. be thei,. generality anti thei,. truth, do not authorize normative conclusions. but cannot be ignored. The latte,., namely what ought not to
2IndetermiDation bas been a recurrcnt tbeme in several of my papers (Silveira, 1974, 1980, 1983, 1984, 1984b, 1986, 1987). But it was only during a sabbatical spent at tbe University of Cambridge tbat I found tbe appropriate c:onncction in tbe bistory of ecoDOIIÜC tbought (Silveira, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1994). In tbe order tbat I read tbem, tbe following autbors had influeuced me before tbat: Toyubee (1962), MorgeDstan (1963), Kubn (1971), Georgsecu-Roegen (1967), HeiseDberg (1963) and KDight (1936, 1960). Scbmnpct.er (1986) consolidated my understanding and 1ed me to Mill (1877) and Senior (1938).
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be done. is derivable from social economics which is tM 1oaI. of intertwtning of ali lhe relevant sciences. The derlvation is to be qualifled by tM specificities oftM case.
2. Tbe appropriatenesl of social economia counes
The merely temporary truth of science can be verified by observing the successive revolutions in physics. This fact leads us to understand that there is no modesty in the fine statement by Einstein quoted by Popper (1976, p. 44):"there can be no better fate for a physics theOI)' than to open room for a far broader theory in which it lives on as a limit
case" .
The cause may be 50ught in Heisenberg (1963, p. 172): " But the existing scientific
concepts covers always only a very limited part of reality, and the other part that has not yet been understood is infinite". Infinity, 50 to speak, is of a far superior order in
economics. If physics is only a temporary truth, pure economics is no better than a
temporary half-truth. And, as another popular saying goes, "a half-truth can be worse than the worst lie".
As an example, let us take the chief construct of the neoc1assica1 theory, the "economic man". This logica1 construction manages to grasp only part of the rational and self-interested dimension of the human being's personality, and even 50 only in a static
mannel". Completely excluded are spontaneous behaviour, traditional or passionate comportment and even growing economic aspirations. Knight (1960, p. 71), the century's most eminent liberal philo5Opher-economist, expresses it 50 well:
The concept of economic man is valid anti usefiú; it ts jimdDmentally true that men behave economically. that is. as economic men, to an important degree. Bllt also to a large atent
they do not; tMir motivation is mixed; they behave in many olher ways. e\len in part at tM some time. The economic view of man is for from being tM whole of human reality. or e\len an accurate description wMre it ts valid as a partia~ abstract view.
If the neoc1assica1 Knight thus classifies the neoc1assica1 theory, the Marxist Uno Kõzõ goes just as far in bis qualification of Marx and bis followers. Uno reformulates this theory by developing one version on the pure levei and another on the social. He emphasizes the space-time specificities in any application without failing to underline the indispensability of theories for the understanding of reality. Finally, Uno seems to identify the Ricardian vice in Marx himsdf - see exhibit 2.
The extent to which the indetermination of Senior is assimilated (by Uno) is among the best I have ever observed. The same may be said of administration-scientist H. Igor
Ansofl:
precursor of the theory of business strategy. Ansoff constructed a first version of the theory by extending behavioural economics based only on neoclassical abstraction. He refonnulated it after thwarted attempts at practical utilization, incorporating insights from sociology, psychology and politica1 science - an excellent example of only indirect applicability of pure theories and their intertwining with genuinely applied theories - see exhibit 3.Economics as half-truth becomes patently clear in its current extensions that embrace phenomenologica1 domains formerly illllminated by different social sciences. Economic theory of discrimination, family, politics ("Revolution of Public Choice") and
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science itse1f are good examples of present-day so-called economic imperialism. Nothing wrong with the movement, if the awareness of indetermination is sound - it is a matter of revealing the formerly obscure economic side, wbich means help, however smaIl, for the applied-theory treatment of these domains. The danger of the Ricardian vice, however, grows at an alarming rate.
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as many do, we apply the neoclassica1 theory directly to the rea1ity of crime, afull explanation can only be provided for crimes that are premeditated and ca1culated in terms ofbenefits and possible costs to the "&gent", that is, the economic mano Well, such crimes do exist, but they are far from being a single category and obviously change character in epidemic situations, as in Brazil's criminal situation at the momento Legislation anel policy should not deny this, but it would be absurd to restrict their scope to the self-see1ring dimension of the premeditated case.
Once again the jurist tries to establish general categories, but it is up to the lawyers to raise all the relevant specificities, all the attennating and aggravating circumstances of each occurrence. In our case, the Ricardian addicts would condemn the criminal without a trial; the pure economists would do so baseei on a single category, while the social economists would consider the various categories. However it may be, both groups would nevertheless condemn the category rather than the individual.
The analogy has its limitations, but Brazil has been condemned in this way to economic policies that are Ricardian-addicted. When monetary, fiscal or prictHX>ntrol policy is prescribed ignoring what has to be said by the law, politica1 science, sociology, psychology, and so on (especially ethics), we are faced with the greater Ricardian vice of the pure economist. When this is done only in disregard of the country's historica1 moment anel its specificities, such as the current level of poverty in Brazil, we are faced with the
lesser vice of the social economist.
There may exist equally relevant indeterminations to 1imit scientific knowledge. The indetermination of Senior, however, is general, and its validity is particularly obvious to the Newtonian world that still provides a base for most economists. But the physicists, unlike
my economist colleagues, do not see themselves as artificers, they are not addicted to the Ricardian vice. The community itself possesses self-controls, and the vice is given the more intimidating name of charlatanism or lack of scientific sense. Moreover, if addicts exist, they are even prevented by law from exercising the professional activity and presenting themselves as artificers.
On the other hand, the division of work between applied scientists and artificers is not so sharply drawn in any field of knowledge. The borderline is more nebulous, with some prominence being accorded to the protuberance of the academic sphere that houses bistory. The historian is par excellence the applied scientist who needs to keep the specificities of the phenomenon in prominent perspective, often no less than in the professional activity.
Besides the dangers a1ready mentioned, academic commitment recommends the applied scientist to restrict bis professional activity to consultarion of a bighly theoretica1 nature. Academic commitment leads to cultivating specific teaching and research skills, and time limitarions consequent1y hinder all efforts to leam the very skills of the artificier. Nonetheless, underdevelopment is a Brazilian problem that works the other way round, making specialization difticult.
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As an important practicaI consequence of the indetermination of Senior, a proposal follows for the implantation of social economics courses in universities. Courses that, corresponding to the case of engineering, would aim at training professionals, besides the courses in pure economics, which would continue to dedicate themselves only to the more abstract theories and to training teachers, as in physics.
Much can be said in favour of departments or integrated faculties that oft'er courses in pure and social economics at the same time. However, scientific blindness suggests that this solution will only become feasible in very special cases. Exhibit 4 shows Schumpeter's correction (1986, p. 471-3, 540-1), when he stated that indetermination had fallen into oblivion - Cairnes, Sidgwick and Weber had alIegedly deviated the community's attention to vaJue judgments by concentrating here the distinction between positive and normative
approaches.
In a commission ofticially created by the community, twelve prominent economists, including a Nobel laureate, continn that the core problem in the teaching of economics
today is the distancing between theory and reality. The problem is the very theme of indetermination, the precarious awareness of which is quite clearly seen in the terms in which the analysis is conducted and in the proposed solutioDS. The series of quOtatiODS in exhibit 4 is set out in a self-explanatory formo
Both the non-academic and the academic work market in established applied disciplines, accounting for we11 over half the job opportunities for new Ph.D.s in economics, show clearly that pure economists are not being sought; there are certain signs that the search is for social economists - on the "raw material" side, this is the obvious preference of undergraduate students. The proposal is hereby that ali be answered with marginal alteratiODS in the pure curricu1um!
Rather than the fear expressed by the commission that the growing mathematicaI sophistication might jeopardize the teachjng of "economic logic", what is at stake (what is being sought) is the capacity to master economic diaJogic - the reference to Knight's
intuitive micro from Chicago or the acknowledgment of demands for history of thought nevertheless provide some consolation.
The "apparent chorus of growing complaints" needs to be diagnosed in ali its gravity. On the one hand, recognition of the limited market for the pure economist; on the other, the increasing paradigmatic conflict between the pure and the social - a predictable situation, because, as pure theory progresses, the distance grows between its constructs and reality (Margenau, 1966, p. 36).
The concept of social economist that 1 use, continned with a footnote by Mill, embraces the agricultural and the business economist, or even the administration scientist,
at least in OptiODS such as business strategy. So the situation is by no means new. It might even prove displeasing that subjects such as the history of economics (except for its quantitative dimension) and the history of economic thought (except for its 10gicaI dimension) are not more feasible as fields for doctorates in pure economics. But the new, criticaI point is that there is no longer room for subjects such as economic policy or economic development (except for its 10gicaI dimension, that is, the theory of growth).
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To retum to the commission, the basic curricu1um seems untouchable, and the suggestion is only for teachers to exemplify with reality rather than with constIUcted exercises -- I feel that the recommendation, if at alI feasible, would stimulate or cu1tivate even more the community's Ricardian vice.
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according to another suggestion, the coDDection with practice is left to the doctoral fields, there will be no time to develop the theories and methods that characterize them, especially when the duration of the doctorate is seen to be unduly longoWithin the perspective of the indetennination of Senior, there is no exaggeration when one reads that the commission would also ca1l the physicists of this generation "idiot savants", corresponding to the pure economists, or that they would recommend that the doctoral programme in physics should comprise its basic curriculum coupled with fields of the engineering doctorates, or even that the basic curriculum of the mechanical engineering
programme should teach quantum mechanics and Newton as a limit case rather than just Newton directly, at the risk ofwanting in scientific rigour.
3. Condusion
Wrthin the pespective of the indetennination of Senior, mathematics is a logical, general instrument for the constIUction of empirical science. Pure or abstract empirical science (for example, the neoclassical theory of the firm anel the growth theory) is a logical, but specific instrument for the constIUction of applied science. Applied science (the
positive theory of business strategy and the theory of economic development are corresponding examples) is a dialogic, specific instrument for perfecting the art of science, that is, the dominion over reality.
The complementarity between these spheres of knowledge is obvious, but in economics it remains obscured by the Ricardian vice. The main cause of the vice is scientific blindness, but the scientist and bis community's self-interest is also significant, along . with the increase in specialization without the counterpart of a lowering of aspirations to participate in collective decisions and have a direct influence in the country's future.
This ana1ysis does not include the interactiODS and overlaps that certainly occur between the logica1ly and dialogica1ly possible worlds and the world of our experience. For example, Marx's theory influenced the evolution that capitalism underwent after him. The strength of bis views - such as the implosion of capitalism with the growing enrichment of the decreasing minority - made it easier to propagate various corrections by means of distnbutive policies such as progressive income taxo
Such transformations of reality, in accordance with dynamics, are succeeded by changes of theories. Thus the theoretical worlds transform the world of our experience anel are in tum transformed by it. In fact, the theoretical worlds participate in our daily
experience insofar as they determine our views. The indetennination of Senior is realized
at a moment in history, a cut that takes place after the three spheres of abstraction have already been established.
Fina1ly, it should be pointed out that the half-truth of economics does not make economists less scientists than physicists. The difference is due to the complexity of the phenomenon and to the semi-experimental nature of economics. Physics is simpler because
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it deals with inert matter. The complexity increases in biology, the study of life, and multiplies in economics, the analysis of society.
Even more difficu1t is politica1 science, for its social phenomenon is more complex than the economic. And the more complex the phenomenon, the greater the number of
equally plausible altemative explanations and the greater the number of theoretically possible worlds. That is, the greater the number of schools of thought .
The difficu1ty also grows extraordinarily with the quasi-absence of laboratories for controlled experiments in economics. The technica1 impossibility of many is fortunately complemented by an ethica1 veto of so many others. It is worth recalling that Plank, the father of quantum mechanics, confessed to Keynes, the father of macroeconomics, that he had considered studying economics when a young man but had given up becanse he found it too bard. We will agree, however, that Plank was surely talking about studying seriously, and was ta1lring about what I call social economics.
Yet I cannot cIose without also expressing my satisfaction with the establishment of pore economics, the rapid spread of the formalization of knowledge, and its contribution to social economics and the raising of the scientific standards of the community as a whole. There is no denying the social importance of the abstract conquests, suftice it to recall physics and modem technologies or Boole's algebra (1854) and the derived computers -derived near1y a century later, in a revolution that was unpredictable up to then: that is the
nature of abstract work.
The point is that pure economists cannot be required to know about the applicability of their theories and master dialogic; they are "idiots savants" only in the role of social economists, only when they talk about reality. Perbaps "idiots savants" is more suitable for Adam Smith's descendants when they show re1uctance to accept him in bis greatest contribution: division of work grows with deve1opment. Perbaps today the Smithian community identifies, more than the philosophers themse1ves, with Plato -indeed, the Platonic vice strikes me as a more appropriate general name than the Ricardian vice, (popper 1978, p. 87):
While Socrates reqllired statesmen to be wise, that is, aware that they Irnow linle, Plato
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that the wise men, the leamed philosopMrs, should be the absolute dictators of the ruks. (Since Plato, megalomania has alwaya been the most common professional disease among philosophers.)It is very good that lay people, especia11y those who are responsible for the fate of • universities, should understand the indetermination of Senior and the Ricardian vice. One
cannot go on training pure economists as if they were qualified for non-academic jobs. An understanding of this division of labour and the subsequent support for development of social economics courses will be a considerable step towards economists treating human
EXHIBIT I - TAXONOMY OF KNOWLEDGE: GENERAL REFERENCE F'RAMEWORK
K.NOWLEDG EXEMPLES MOTIVATION COMMITMENT LANGUAGE OBJET
ABSTRAT Debreu Know-Why Tbeory: Oc:cam Logic
SCIENCE PasiDeUi UDivasal
Solow 8Dd
APPLIED Simon Know-Why/ Theory: Dialogic, necessBry
SCIENCE Kumets Know-how appücability orgaDic
Ansofr (DODCCODOJDic cobereDce
elemeUls)
ARTOF MachiawIli Know-how Products 8Dd Advocacy Universal,
SCIENCE SuIly proc:eaes; necessBry.
Galiani cases; patients specific
EXHIBIT 2- THE INDETERMINATION OF SENIOR AMONG THE MARXISTS
MORRIS-SUZUKI (1991) ON UNO KOZO· :
The most important and controversial new element to enter Japanese
Marxist economics in the 19S0~ however, was Uno Kõzõ's theory oflevels ofllD8lysis (p. 116). The main aim of Uno's theory was to ftee Marxist thought ftom the logica1 anel
semantic traps in which it had become enmeshed (p. 117).
In Uno's view, the main cause of confusion in analyses of Japanese capitalism (both by Koza school and Rono school economists) was the failure of Marxist
theorists to distinguish between pure theory, the study of historica1 development, and the study of contemporary economic conditions (p. 117).
At the deepest and most abstract levei, there is 'pure theory' (Jengiroa)
which generates the concept of'pure capitalism' (p. 117). The secand, and somewbat more concrete, level ofllD8lysis is what Uno termed 'stage theory' (danbiroa) (p. 118).
Whereas the concept of pure capitalism involves focusing in a highly
abstract way on the law of value, and excluding such institutional factors as the joint-stock company or the nation-state, stage theory alIows the economists to readmit these factors to consideration, although discourse still remains at a fairIy high levei of generaJization. Last, there is the '1ID8lysis of contemporary conditions' (pajo bwueki): the understanding of economic systems past and present, with ali their wealth of complexity and contradictions. Such understanding is, of course, the ultimate object of economi~ but Uno argued that it must necessarily be built on the firm foundations ofpure theory and stage theory (p. 118).
By distinguishing between pure theory, stage theory, and the analysis of contemporary conditions, Uno showed that it was possible to escape ftom the trap of rigidly imposing Marx's and Lenin's views on present-day politica1 circumstances. At the
level of stage theory, Uno recognized that the configuration of c1ass antagonisms will take different forms in different phases of capitalist development. Through the lID8lysis of contemporary conditions it becomes c1ear that practica1 politica1 campaigns must a1so pay attention to a host oftemporary and local circumstances (p. 121).
Uno saw Capital as an attempt to extract ftom the complex realities of mid-nineteenth century Britain, a theory of pure capitalism, but an attempt that was flawed because of Marx's perpetuai tendency to slip ftom abstract lID8lysis to discussion of economic minutiae ofthe real world (p. 118).
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EXBIBIT 3 - NEOCLASSICAL THEORY OF THE FIRM (Pure Economia) and
the
THEORY OF CORPORATE STRATEGY (Social Economia)
The Ricardian Vice and Ansoff(I965), by Ansoffhimself(1980, pp. 5-6):
Corporate Strategy (published in 1965) is a prescriptive logical analysis of how business firms should think through their adaptation to the environment ( ... ) many practical applications of prescrlptions similar to mine have come to griet: the spread of strategic pIanning has been slow, and it is only now, ten years later, that the practice of genuine strategic pIanning is emerging.
-The Indetermination ofSenior and Ansoff(1980, 1987):
Strategic planning is focused on business, economic and technological variables. Strategic management broadens the focus to include psychological, sociological and political variables (I 987, p. 265).
Both experience and literature on psychology show that individuais will resist change when it makes them insecure ( ... ) Political science literature, as we1l as common observations, shows that groups: - Coalesce and act as power centers within the rest of
the organization ( ... ) Both sociologicalliterature and practical experience show that: -Groups of managers who share common tasks and preoccupations develop, over a period of time, commonalities of behavior and outlook ( ... ) [and] a consensus, which sociologists call a model of rea1ity, on which behaviors produce desirable results and which do not (1987, pp. 241-2).
Seen trom the point of view of a strategy analyst, resistance is a manifestation of the 'irrationality' of an organization, a refusal to recognize new dimensions of reality, to reason logically, and to carry out the consequences of logical deductions. But seen from the viewpoint of a behavioral or political scientist, resistance is a natural manifestation of different rationalities, according to which groups and individuais interact with one another (1987, p. 238) .
Our concem in this book is with the behavior of complex organizations in turbulent environments ( ... ) Most available theoretical insights are partial, refracted through the optic of a particular theoretical discipline from which they are derived, be it economics, psychology, sociology, political science, or general system theory ( ... ) The major aim [of this book] is to bridge the gap between theory and practice by providing an explanatory science ( ... ) In natural sciences such explanations go under the name of
applied theory - an intermediate levei of knowledge between pure science and engineering ( ... ) The theory is multi-disciplinary in the sense that it seeks an optic appropriate to the problem and not to a particular scientific discipline. There are two paths to such an optic. One is to attempt an integration of the available disciplinary insights into a coherent whole. The other is to work back from the 'real world' problem, abstract the features which appear critical to explanation of behavior, and then selectively borrow from theoretical insights which may be available (1980, pp.
EXHIBIT 4 - "REPORT OF THE COMMISSION ON GRADUATE EDUCATION IN ECONOMICS", Krueger et ai (1991):
(MonvATION)
The Commission was formed [by the then-President of the ABA] in response to what seemed lib a
growing choros of complaints about the nature of economic research and traiDiDg in CCODOmics
departments at most universities (p. 1035) ( ... ) we [lhe twelve members: A O. Krueger (Chair), K. 1.
Arrow, O. 1. Blanchard, AS. Blinder, C. Goldin, E. E. Leamer, R Lucas, 1. Pauzar, R G. PenDer, T. P. Schultz, 1. E. Stiglitz, L. H. Summers] have thought to provide a coberent statement to which all
could subscn"be (p. 1037).
(CENTRAL PROBLEM)
In part bec:ause of lhe attitudes of noD-academiC employers and lhe growth of competitor programs
and training ofPh.D.'s to teach in them, in part because of responses to surwys, but in part bec:ause of our own obscrvations, our IJUUor ama:rn focus on lhe extcnt to which graduate education in
eccmomics may have bec:ome too reIDOYCd from real economic problems ( ... ) [we] shared lhe
perc:eplion that it is 8D UDder-emphasis on lhe 'linkqcs' belween tools, both theory and economettic, and 'real world probJems' that is lhe wealrness of graduate education in eCQDonJjcs The wealmess is
DOt 8D excessive use ofrnathematics (p. 1039) ( ... ) Our CODCeI'Il is that, as each successive geaeration of eccmomists becomes more skilled at matbematics, each demands more of lhe DeXt ( ... ) If this tn:Dd mntinues ( ... ) We might teach lhe languase ofmatbemaôcs but DOt lhe logic ofec:oDOmics, and CDd
up valuing lhe grammar of lhe discipline, rather than its substance (p. 1041) ( ... ) h appears that
mastery of techniques has supp1anted mastery of lhe kiDd of iDtuitive aoaIysis that was cmce called 'Chicago-style micro' (p. 1044) ( ... ) The Commission's Cear is that graduate programs may be tumiDg
out a geaeration with too many idiot l&VUtI, skilled in technique but innocent of real CCODOmic
issues (u.) The question is, rather, ODe ofpriorities, balance, and timiDg (pp. 1044-5). (CURRICULUM)
Too often, it seems, faculty members ignore lhe fact that lhe OCR curriculum [micro, macro, eccmometric] has aspects of public good (p. 1045) ( ... ) A1though lhe Commission beIieYes that even lhe OCR sequeoce should iDclude real-world applicatioas, it ia lhe field coUnes that cany lhe primaIy
responsibility for linking theory and empirical ttdmiques with real-world applications ( ... ) we
amsider 'fidds' to iDcludc. for example, labor, international trade, iDdusttial organiDÔOD,
devdopmeot, public filVlllCe, 8Dd eccmomic histmy ( ... ) Students 8Dd faculty both DOted lhe abIeDce of
facts, institutional iDformation, data, real-world issues, applications, 8Dd policy probJems [in lhe fields] (p. 1046) ( ... ) Many oflhe respoDdcnts to lhe quesôonnain:s lamented lhe abseDce ofhistmy of tlmght in lhe curriculum (p. 1048) ( ... ) Any substanrial extcDsion of lhe time to complete course
work seems 8D UDattractive option, given aDOther of our concerns that lhe Ph.D. programs is already
too long (p. 1043).
(EFF'ECTS ON mE MARKET FOR NEW ECONOMICS DOCTORATES)
ODe oflhe appanmt reasons for lhe a:mtinued strength in lhe markct for economists in lhe 19705 and
19805 was that oooacademic demnuts iDcreased coough to compensare for relatively sluggish acacJemic dcnunuts: lhe proportion of DeW CCODOmics ~ taking their first job in academia
declinai from 68 perc:eat in 1968-72 to 56 perteDt in 1978-87 during lhe contraction in ac:ademic
hiriDg ( ... ) Our UDe8Se on this SCOIe is intensified by two addiôonal sourccs ( ... ) inteIviews with
DOIl-acacJemic cmployers geocrally nmaled fairly deep dissatisfaction with lhe training of DeW CCODOmics
Ph.D.'s ( ... ) [We] Cear that if chanp are DOt IDade, ncmac:ademic cmployers will cut back on hiring DeW ec:ouomics Ph.D.'s (p. 1038). Some view it as a CODCeI'Il that lhe supply of DeW Ph.D.'s from
'competitor' discipliDes appe8IS to be increasing rapidly and may be rep1acing ec:onomics Ph.D.'s ( ... ) it wouId be a ~ mistake to cxmclude that lhe training of applied ec:onomists shouId be left entireIy to our sistcr discipliDes (pp. 1038-9). To date, progIaIDS such as public policy competing with eccmomics in teaching undergraduates have relied predomiDantly on ec:onomics dcpartmcots to supply most of lhe Ph.D. economists teaching in these progIaIDS. Therc is some evideDce, howeYer, that lhe applied schools are increasingly produdng their own Ph.D. eccmomists ( ... ) Should this tn:Dd continue it will not be good for economics departments, and it would probably also be undesirable for applied
schools, as they run lhe danger of having their ec:onomic aoaIysis become less and less rigorous (p.
1039). A major determinant of demand for Ph.D. economists still is lhe 'markct' to instruct undergraduates, 8Dd lhe number of economics B.A 's awarded each year has grown slowly since lhe
19705 (p. 1039). Whereas lhe group ofmajor liberal arts colleges covered by lhe Kasper report used to send 8D average of 9 to 12 majors a year on to graduate schools, that number has diminished to 2 to 3 (p. 1041).
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1980. Strategic Management. London: Macmillan.Georgescu-Roegen, Nicholas. 1967. Aoalytical Economia. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
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Morgenstern, Oskar. 1963. On the Accuracy olEconomic Observations. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press.
Morris-Suzuki, Tessa. 1991. A History 01 Japanese Economic Thought. London: Routledge.
Popper, Karl R 1976. Unended Quest: Ao Intelectual Autobiography. São Paulo, Cultrix. (In Portuguese.)
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Universidade de Brasilia. (In Portuguese.)
Schumpeter, Joseph A 1986. History 01 Economic Aoalysis. London: Allen &. Unwin. Senior, Nassau William. 1938. Ao Outline olthe Theory olPolitical Economy. London:
Kimble &. Bradford.
Silveira, Antonio M. 1974. "The University and the PBDCT: Critique". Science and Culture (Ciência e Cultura) 26 (March): 249-51. (In Portuguese.)
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Proceedinp olthe ANPAD IV (March): 249-58. (In Portuguese.) ANPAD: National Association of Graduate Schools of Administration (Associação Nacional de Centros de Pós-Graduaçio em AdministraçIo).
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- . 1984b. "The Indetermination of Morgenstern". Brazilian Economic Review (Revista BrasDeira de Economia) 38 (OctoberlDecember): 357-83. (In Portuguese.) - . 1986. "Economic Advising for the Strategy of State Govemments". In Silveira, A
M., ed. Economic Debate: Economic Diagnostic and Other Essays. Belo Horizonte, Fundação Joio Pinheiro. (In Portuguese.)
--.1987. Economic Policy and PhDolOphy: The Brazilian Authoritarianism. Rio de Janeiro: IPEAlINPES. (In Portuguese.)
- . 1990. "The Public Choice Perspective and Knight's Institutionalist Bent". Brazilian Economic Review (Revista BrasUeira de Economia), forthcoming. Cambridge: Clare HaIl, Univ. ofCambridge, mimeo.
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--o
1993. "Senior, Wagner and Schmoller: Indetermination and Social Policy Conclusions". Economic Studies (Estudos Econômicos) 13 (May/August): 319-45. (In Portuguese.) Given at the Conference on SchmoUer and Wagner, Heilbronn, Germany, October 15-18, 1992. Forthcoming in Euays on Social Security and Tuation, ed. by Jurgen G. Backhaus, Avebury, UK.- . 1994. "Applicability of Theories: Neoclassic-Micro and Corporate Strategy". Review of Political Economy (Revista de Economia PoHtica) 14 (ApriVJune): 53-76. (In Portuguese.)
120. CAPÍTULo
xn -
EXPECTATIVAS RACIONAIS - Mario Hcmique Simonscn - 1988 (esgotado)121. A OFERTA AGREGADA E O MERCADO DE TRABALHO - Mario Hcmique Simonsen e Rubens Penha Cysne - 1988 (esgotado)
122. INÉRCIA INFLACIONÁRIA E INFLAÇÃO INERCIAL - Mario Hcmique Simonscn - 1988 (esgotado)
123. MODELOS 00 HOMEM: ECONOMIA E ADMINISTRAÇÃO - Antonio Maria da Silveira -1988 (esgotado)
124. UNDERINVOINCING OF EXPORTS, OVERINVOINCING OF IMPORTS, ANO THE OOIl..AR PREMIUN ON THE BLACK MARKET - Fernando de Holanda Barbosa, Rubens Penha Cysne e Marcos Costa Holanda - 1988 (esgotado)
125. O REINO MÁGICO 00 CHOQUE HETEROOOXO - Fernando de Holanda Barbosa, Antonio SaJazar Pessoa Brandão e Clovis de Faro - 1988 (esgotado)
126. PLANO CRUZADO: CONCEpÇÃO E O ERRO DE POUnCA FISCAL - Rubens Penha Cyme - 1988 (esgotado)
127. TAXA DE JUROS FLUTUAN1E VERSUS CORREÇÃO MONETÁRIA DAS
PRESTAÇÕES: UMA COMPARAÇÃO NO CASO 00 SAC E INFLAçÃO CONSTAN1E -Clovis de Faro - 1988 (esgotado)
128. CAPÍTULo
n -
MONETARY CORRECTION ANO REAL INTEREST ACCOUNTING -Rubens Penha Cymc - 1988 ( esgotado)129. CAPÍTULo
m -
INCOME ANO DEMAND POUCIES IN BRAZIL - Rubens Penha Cysnc-1988 (esgotado)130. CAPÍTULo IV BRAZll.lAN ECONOMY IN THE EIGHTIES ANO THE DEBT CRlSIS -Rubens Penha Cysne - 1988 (esgotado)
131. THE BRAZll.lAN AGRICULTIJRAL POUCY EXPERIENCE: RATIONALE ANO Ft.ITURE DIRECTIONS - Antonio SaJazar Pessoa Brandio - 1988 (esgotado)
132. MORATÓRIA INTERNA, DÍVIDA PÚBUCA E JUROS REAIS - Maria Silvia Bastos Marques c Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Wcrlang - 1988 (esgotado)
133. CAPÍTULo IX TEORIA 00 CRESCIMENTO ECONÔMICO Mario Henrique Simonsen -1988 ( esgotado)
134. CONGELAMENTO COM ABONO SALARIAL GERANDO EXCESSO DE DEMANDA -Joaquim Vieira Ferreira Levy e Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang - 1988 (esgotado)
135. AS ORIGENS E CONSEQUÊNCIAS DA INFLAÇÃO NA AMÉRICA LATINA - Fernando de Holanda Barbosa - 1988 (esgotado)
136. A CONTA-CORRENTE 00 GOVERNO - 1970/1988 - Mario Henrique Simonsen - 1989 (esgotado)
137. A REVIEW ON THE THEORY OF COMMOW KNOWLEDGE - Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang - 1989 (esgotado)
~
~
•
160. O MERCADO ABERTO BRASll..EIRO: ANÁliSE OOS PROCEDIMENTOS
161. 162. 163. 164. 165. 166. 167. 168. 169. 170. 171. 172. 173. 174.
OPERACIONAIS - Fernando de Holanda Barbosa - 1990 (esgotado)
A RELAÇÃO ARBITRAGEM ENTRE A ORlN CAMBIAL E A ORlN MONETÁRIA - Luiz Guillterme Schymma de Oliveira - 1990 (esgotado)
SUBADDfIlVE PROBABILITIES AND PORTFOUO INERTIA - Mario Henrique Simonsen e Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang - 1990 (esgotado)
MACROECONOMIA COM M4 - Carlos Ivan Simonsen Leal e Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Wer1ang - 1990 (esgotado)
A RE-EXAMINATION OF SOLOW'S GROWTH MODEL
wrm
APPUCATIONS TO CAPITAL MOVEMENTS - Neantro Saavcdra Rivano - 1990 (esgotado)THE PUBUC CHOICE SEDmON: VARIATIONS ON THE THEME OF SCIENTIFIC W ARF ARE - Antonio Maria da Silveira - 1990 (esgotado)
THE PUBUC CHOPlCE PERSPECTIVE AND KNIGHf'S INSTITUfIONALIST BENT -Antonio Maria da Silveira - 1990 (esgotado)
THE INDETERMINATION OF SENIOR - Antonio Maria da Silveira - 1990 (esgotado)
JAP ANESE DIRECT INVESTMENT IN BRAZIL - Neantro Saavedra Rivano - 1990 (esgotado)
A CARTEIRA DE AÇÕES DA CORRETORA: UMA ANÁliSE ECONÔMICA - Luiz GuiJherme Schymura de 0Iiwira - 1991 ( esgotado)
PLANO COLLOR: OS PRIMEIROS NOVE MESES - Clovis de Faro - 1991 (esgotado) PERCALÇOS DA INDEXAÇÃO EX-ANTE - Clovis de Faro - 1991 (esgotado)
NOVE PONTOS SOBRE O PLANO COlLOR
n -
Rubens Penha Cysne - 1991 (esgotado) A DINÂMICA DA HIPERINFLAÇÃO - Fernando de Holanda Barbosa, Waldyr MWliz Oliva e EMa Mureb Sa11wn - 1991 (~otado)LOCAL CONCAVIFlABILITY OF PREFERENCES AND DETERMINACY OF
EQun.IBRllJM - Mario Rui Páscoa e Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang - maio de 1991 (esgotado)
175. A CONTABILIDADE OOS AGREGADOS MONETÁRIOS NO BRASIL - Carlos Ivan Simonsen Leal e Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang - maio de 1991 (esgotado)
176. HOMOTHETIC PREFERENCES - James Dow e Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang - 1991 (esgotado)
177. BARREIRAS A ENTRADA NAS INDÚSTRIAS: O PAPEL DA FIRMA PIONEIRA - Luiz Guilherme Schymma de Oliveira - 1991 (esgotado)
178. POUPANÇA E CRESCIMENfO ECONÔMICO - CASO BRASILEIRO - Mario Henrique Simonsen - agosto 1991 (esgotado)
179. EXCESS VOLATILITY OF STOCK PRICES AND KNIGHTIAN UNCERTAINTY - James Dow e Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang - 1991 (esgotado)
..
181. TIIE BRAZlllAN EXPERlENCE
wrrn
ECONOMY POUCY REFORMS ANDPROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE - Fernando de Holanda Barbosa - Dezembro de 1991 (esgotado)
182. MACRODINÂMICA: OS SISTEMAS DINÂMICOS NA MACROECONOMIA - Fernando de Holanda Barbosa - Dezembro de 1991 (esgotado)
183. A EFICIÊNCIA DA INTERVENÇÃO DO ESTADO NA ECONOMIA - Fernando de Holanda Barbosa - Dezembro de 1991 (esgotado)
184. ASPECTOS ECONÔMICOS DAS EMPRESAS ESTATAIS NO BRASll..:
TELECOMUNICAÇÕES, ELETRICIDADE - Fernando de Holanda Barbosa, Manuel Jeremias Leite Caldas, Mario Jorge Fina e Hélio Lechuga Arteiro - Dezembro de 1991 (esgotado)
185. THE EX-ANTE NON-OPTIMALI1Y OF THE DEMPSTER-SCHAFER UPDATING RULE FOR AMBIGUOUS BELIEFS - Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa WerIang e James Dow - Fevereiro de 1992 (esgotado)
186. NASH EQUll..IBRRJM UNDER KNIGHTIAN UNCERTAINTY: BREAKING DOWN BACKW ARO INDUCTION - James Dow e Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa WerIang - Fevereiro de 1992 (esgotado) 187. 188. 189. 190. 191. 192. 193. 194. 195. 196. 197.
REFORMA 00 SISTEMA FINANCEIRO NO BRASll.. E "CENTRAL BANKING" NA ALEMANHA E NA ÁUSTRIA - Rubens Penha Cyme - Fevereiro de 1992 (esgotado)
A INDETERMINAÇÃO DE SENIOR: ENSAIOS NORMATIVOS - Antonio Maria da Silveira - Março de 1992 ( esgotado)
REFORMA TRIBUTÁRIA -Mario Hemique Simonsen - Março de 1992 (esgotado)
HIPERINFLAÇÃO E O REGIME DAS POLÍTICAS MONETÁRIA-FISCAL - Fernando de Holanda Barbosa e Elvia Mureb Sa1lwn - Março de 1992 (esgotado)
A CONSTITUIÇÃO, OS JUROS E A ECONOMIA - Clovis de Faro - Abril de 1992 (esgotado) APUCABll..IDADE DE TEORIAS: MICROECONOMIA E ESTRATÉGIA EMPRESARIAL -Antonio Maria da Silveira - Maio de 1992 (esgotado)
INFLAÇÃO E CIDADANIA - Fernando de Holanda Barbosa - Julho de 1992
A INDEXAÇÃO OOS ATIVOS FINANCEIROS: A EXPERIÊNCIA BRASll..EIRA - Fernando de Holanda Barbosa - Agosto de 1992
A INFLAÇÃO E CREDIBnIDADE - Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang - Agosto de 1992
A RESPOSTA JAPONESA AOS CHOQUES DE OFERTA. 1973/1981 - Fernando Antonio Hadba - Agosto de 1992
UM MODELO GERAL DE NEGOCIAÇÃO EM UM MERCADO DE CAPITAIS EM QUE NÃO EXISTEM INVESTIDORES IRRACIONAIS Luiz Guilhenne Schymma de Oliveira -Setembro de 1992
198. SISTEMA FINANCEIRO DE HABITAÇÃO: A NECESSIDADE DE REFORMA - Clovis de F aro - Setembro de 1992
199. BRASll..: BASES PARA A RETOMADA DE DESENVOLVIMENTO Rubens Penha Cysne -Outubro de 1992
>
•
•
t 217. 218. 219. 220. 221. 222. 223.CAIXAS DE CONVERSÃO - Fernando Antônio Hadba - Agosto de 1993.
A ECONOMIA BRASll.EIRA NO PERÍODO MILITAR - Rubens Penha Cysne - Agosto de 1993 (esgotado).
IMPÔSTO INFLACIONÁRIO E TRANSFERÊNCIAS INFLACIONÁRIAS - Rubens Penha Cysne - Agosto de 1993 (esgotado).
PREVISÕES DE Ml COM DADOS MENSAIS Rubens Penha Cysne e João Victor Issler -Setembro de 1993.
TOPOLOGIA E CÁLCULO NO Rn - Rubens Penha Cyme e Hwnberto Moreira - Setembro de 1993 .
EMPRÉSTIMOS DE MÉDIO E LONGO PRAZOS E INFLAÇÃO: A QUESTÃO DA INDEXAÇÃO - Clovis de Faro - Outubro de 1993.
ESTUDOS SOBRE A INDETERMINAÇÃO DE SENIOR, vol 1 - Nelson H Barbosa, Fábio N.P. Freitas, Carlos F.L.R. Lopes, Marcos B. Monteiro, Antonio Maria da Silveira (Coordenador) e Matias Vemengo - Outubro de 1993. (esgotado)
224. A SUBSTITUIÇÃO DE MOEDA NO BRASIL: A MOEDA INDEXADA - Fernando de Holanda Barbosa e Pedro Luiz Valls Pereira -Novembro de 1993.
225. FINANCIAL INTEGRATION ANO PUBUC FINANCIAL INSrmmONS - Wa1ter Novaes e Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa WcrlaDg - Novembro de 1993.
226. LA WS OF LARGE NUMBERS FOR NON-ADDITIVE PROBABILITIES - James Dow e Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa WcrlaDg -Dezembro de 1993.
227. A ECONOMIA BRASll...EIR.A NO PERÍODO MILITAR - VERSÃO REVISADA - Rubens Penha Cysne - Janeiro de 1994. (esgotado)
228. THE IMPACT OF PUBUC CAPITAL ANO PUBUC INVESTMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION - Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira - Fevereiro de 1994.
229. FROM THE BRAZILIAN PAY AS YOU GO PENSION SYSTEM TO CAPITAUZATION: BAlLING
our
THE GOVERNMENT - José Luiz de Carvalho e Clóvis de Faro - Fevereiro de 1994.230. ESTUDOS SOBRE A INDETERMINAÇÃO DE SENIOR - voI.
n -
Brena Paula Magno Fernandez, Maria Tereza Garcia Duarte, Sergio Grumbach, Antonio Maria da Silveira (Coordenador) - Fevereiro de 1994. (esgotado)231. ESTABlllZAÇÃO DE PREÇOS AGRíCOLAS NO BRASIL: AVALIAÇÃO E
PERSPECTIV AS - Clovis de Faro e José Luiz Carvalho - Março de 1994.
232. ESTlMATING SECTORAL CYCLES USING COINTEGRATION ANO COMMON
FEATURES - Robert F. Engle e João Victor Isslcr - Março de 1994
233. COMMON CYCLES IN MACROECONOMIC AGGREGATES - João Victor Issler e Farshid Vahid - Abril de 1994.
234. BANDAS DE CÂMBIO: TEORIA, EVIDÊNCIA EMPÍRICA E SUA POSSÍVEL APliCAÇÃO NO BRASIL - Aloisio Pessoa de Araújo e Cypriano Lopes Feijó Filho - Abril de 1994.
235. O HEDGE DA DívIDA EXTERNA BRASn..EIRA - Aloisio Pcaoa de Armijo, TúIio Luz Barbosa, AméJia de FMima F. ScmbImo e Maria Haydée Mora1ea - Abril de 1994.
236. TESTING nm EXTERNAIl11ES HYPOTHESIS OF ENDOGENOUS GROWTH USING
COlNTEGRATION - Pedro CavaIcami FetRira e 10i0 Victor Issler -Abril de 1994.
237. nm BRAZIUAN SOCIAL SECURlTY PROGRAM: DIAGNOSIS AND PROPOSAL FOR
REFORM - Renato FrageIIi; Uriel de Magalbles; Helio Portocarrero e Luiz Guilherme Schymura - Maio de 1994.
238. REGIMES COMPLEMENTARES DE PREVIDtNCIA - Haio de 0Iiw::ira Portocam:ro de Castro, Luiz Guilherme Scbymura de 0Iiwira, Renato FragcDi Cardoso, Séqjo Ribeiro da Costa • WerIaDg e Uriel de Maplhles -Maio de 1994.
239. PUBUC EXPENDITURES, TAXATION ANO WELFARE MEASUREMENT - Pedro CavaIcami FetRira -Maio de 1994.
240. A NOTE ON POUCY, nm COMPOSmON OF PUBUC EXPENDITURES AND
ECONOMIC GROwm -Pedro CavaIcami FetRira -Maio de 1994. 241. INFLAçÃO E O PLANO mc - RubeDs Penha Cyme -Maio de 1994.
242. INFLATIONAR,Y BIAS AND STATE OWNED FINANCIAI... INS11TUI10NS - WaIter NOVICI Filho e Séqio Ribeiro da Costa WedaDg -1uDho ele 1994.
243. INTRODUÇÃO Á INtEGRAçÃO ESTOCÁSncA - Pmdo
KJiaaer
Moatáro -.Junho de 1994. 244. PORE ECONOMIC THEORIES: nm TEMPORAR,Y HALF-TRUTH - Antonio M. SiM:ira-1uobo de 1994.
