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11th Pan-European Conference on International Relations 13–16 September 2017 | Barcelona
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The role of beliefs, ideas and perceptions in foreign policymaking process – the Brazilian case during Lula da Silva’s term*
Carmen Fonseca, NOVA University of Lisbon carmen.fonseca@ipri.pt
Abstract
This paper aims to discuss the influence of the factors from systemic, domestic and individual levels on Brazilian foreign policy making, in
particular the goal of Brazil’s international projection during the two terms of President Lula da Silva (2003-2010). The argument developed emphasizes the importance of carrying out a multi-level analysis in order to understand Brazilian foreign policy making, in a moment characterized by changes in international and domestic systems as well as in government leaderships. All of these elements were crucial to recover the «Brazilian power» ambition.
1. Introduction
It was when Brazil had defined the South American region as its foreign policy priority that started to develop international insertion strategies beyond the regional area. The search for a relevant place in the international system has been a dominant feature of the Brazilian foreign policy and it was also a constant during the two terms of President Lula da Silva, between 2003 and 2010. Actually, throughout the time, Brazilian foreign policy direction did not suffer deep ruptures and it has been marked by a continuity of
* This work was funded by Portuguese National Funds through the Fundação para a Ciência e a
principles and goals, or «compulsory scenarios» in the words of Gélson Fonseca1.
However, of course, there were some changes concerning the hierarchy of priorities and objectives.
The underlying question of the present paper aims to discuss the influence of factors from systemic, domestic and individual levels on Brazilian foreign policy making, in
particular the goal of Brazil’s international projection during the two terms of President
Lula da Silva (2003-2010).
The argument developed emphasizes the importance of carrying out a multi-level analysis in order to understand Brazilian foreign policymaking, in a moment characterized by changes in international and domestic systems as well as in government leaderships. All of these elements were crucial to recover «Brazil power» ambition.
By this way, it is assumed that foreign policy is a process influenced by several
constraints and is adopted Laura Neack’s approach which considers that «the study of
foreign policy needs to consider how certain goals arise and why certain beahviors result. Thus our focus is on how goals are decided upon. We will explore the factors
that cause a state to declare and embark on a certain foreign policy course. (…) In summary, the ‘stuff’ of our foreign policy study includes processes, statements, and
behaviors»2.
So, this paper includes a short theoretical framework that emphasizes the evolution of Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) and the importance in adopting a multilevel analysis
looking for causes that explain the inter-relation among the 3 levels – systemic, domestic and individual. The paper entails the study of each level and I will present here
the main elements of each level.
I think that it is also important to mention that the goal of this paper (and even with the comparative dimension) it is not to evaluate the causes for the success or failure of Brazilian foreign policy options; nor to present the differences between the dynamism of Lula da Silva and the passivity of Dilma Rousseff3. As I referred before, the main
1 FONSECA, Gélson – «Política externa brasileira: padrões e descontinuidades no período republicano»,
In Relações Internacionais, n.º 29, 2011.
2 NEACK, Laura – The new foreign policy: power seeking in a globalized era, 2ª edition, Plymouth:
Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2008, pp. 9-10.
3 About Dilma Rousseff term see: CERVO, Amado Luiz e LESSA, António Carlos – «O declínio:
goal is to understand the influence of variables from the different levels on foreign policy making.
2. Foreign Policy Analysis’ levels
Like International Relation Theories, also FPA was not immune to the evolution of the international system neither the domestic dynamics, both led FPA «to expand its own outlook to account for an increasingly diverse range of non-state actors, such as global environmental activists or multinational corporations (MNCs)»4. So instead of bearing
in mind just causes from the systemic level FPA started to underline the importance of complement it with elements from the individual level – ideas, beliefs, perceptions – as well as from the domestic level – stressing not just the role of institutions and public opinion, but also several elements related with State organization and society. Hermann and Hagan explained this point very well: «scholars who focus on understanding the foreign policy process have made progress in identifying the conditions under which these factors do matter and in specifying the nature of their effects. (…) they have explored how leaders perceive and interpret constraints in their international and domestic environments, make decisions, and manage domestic political pressures on their foreign policy choices»5.
Webber and Smith underline the importance of the international level, because, as they say, it refers to the interaction with other States as well as to issues related to international hierarchy reflected in the statute each State has in the international system,
that is, the way how it is perceived by other States.
So with this framework it is expected to highlight the importance of conciliate the three
level of analysis as presented theoretical by some authors. As Peter Trumbore and Mark Boyer refer «’At the national level, domestic groups pressure the government to adopt policies they favour, while politicians seek power by building coalitions among these
n.º 2, pp. 133-151, 2014. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0034-7329201400308. More recentely, Andres Malamud studied the domestic and systemic causes that contributed to Brazil’s international rollback since 2011: MALAMUD, Andrés - «Foreign Policy Retreat: Domestic and Systemic Causes of Brazil’s International Rollback», In Rising Powers Quarterly, Vol. 2, N.º 2, 2017, pp. 149-168.
4 ALDEN, Chris e ARAN, Amnon –Foreign Policy Analysis. New Approaches, 2012, p. 3
5 HERMANN, Margaret G. e HAGAN, Joe D.– «International Decision Making: Leadership Matters», In
constituents.’ Meanwhile, at ‘the international level, governments seek to satisfy
domestic pressures while limiting the harmful impact of foreign developments’»6.
Laura Neack’s approach refers to the political process itself, because «regardless of
government or regime type, what is important to the analyst is identifying the domestic political process by which winners and losers are determined on any given foreign policy issue».7 The international level, on the other level, is highlighted because it is
where «the challenges and opportunities for foreign policy largely arise»8, so «for any
government, status will be a key concern in confronting the international context»9.
By his turn, Christopher Hill arguments that foreign policy analysis should not be done assuming that factors are always external and independent of the perceptions and knowledge of the actors10.
Once again, Laura Neack underscores the importance of the individual level in the interaction of domestic and external levels11. Likewise, Hermann and Hagan assume
that international system constraints and opportunities «only have policy implications when they are perceived as such by the leaders whose positions count in dealing with a particular problem»12. Leaders are defined by Hermann & Hagan as “pawns”13 and by
Neack as the nexus in the interaction of the domestic and external political systems14.
These views are crucial for the foreign policy analysis in a globalized system in which the levels are not independents and autonomous –and where, I think, Lula’s Brazil fits perfectly.
6 Peter Trumbore e Mark Boyer apud NEACK, Laura – The new foreign policy. Power seeking in a
globalized era, 2008, p. 98
7Ibidem, p. 98
8 WEBBER, Mark e SMITH, Michael –Foreign Policy in a transformed world, 2002, p. 31 9Ibidem.
10 HILL, Christopher – Foreign Policy in the Twenty-First Century, 2ª edição. Nova Iorque: Palgrave
Macmillan, 2016.
11 NEACK, Laura –The new foreign policy. Power seeking in a globalized era, 2008, p. 49
12 HERMANN, Margaret G. e HAGAN, Joe D.– «International Decision Making: Leadership Matters»,
1998, p. 135.
13Ibidem, p. 129.
3. Lula’s foreign policy: «greatness ambition», «Brazil power» and
«haughty and active foreign policy»
The study of Brazilian foreign policy history allows conclude that there is a continuous
goal based on the ambition of «Brazil power» and on the belief of the country’s
«greatness».15This goal was developed during the 1970’s when Brazil started to believe
that, as an in-development country could influence the international agenda setting16.
This goal is also related with what Matias Spektor defines as the «autonomist project» and with Brazilian international identity17.
This project and identity are also related with the understanding about the Brazilian relation with the US. Some of the doubts of the beginning of the XX century concerning the way of conduct the foreign policy remain nowadays, specifically in what refers the degree of cooperation with the US18. Also during Lula’s term (which coincides with
Bush and Obama’s terms) the relation was preserved and in some domains, was
deepened, but never considered as strategic or fundamental. Some of this introversion is a result of the main principles of Brazilian diplomatic thought which make difficult to develop an open and close relationship with the US. This love and hate relationship comes also from the history, being the relationship with the United States characterized as ambivalent, because the US are understood «as the best potential ally for the country, as well as its most likely antagonist in case of conflict»19.
Thereafter, the willingness to project a «Brazil power» was not always accompanied by coincident actions, and despite the growing international presence of Brazil during the
democratic period, the Brazilian «greatness ambition» was delayed to be achieved.
However, since the late 1990’s, during FHC’s term20, Brazil had started an international
15 Expressions spreaded during Emilio Médici’s term (1969-1974), cf. SPEKTOR, Matias – «Origens e
direcção do Pragmatismo Ecuménico e Responsável». In Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional,
Vol. 47, N.º 2, 2004
16 SPEKTOR, Matias – «Origens e direcção do Pragmatismo Ecuménico e Responsável», 2004.
17 SPEKTOR, Matias – «O Projeto Autonomista na Política Externa Brasileira», In NETO, Aristides
Monteiro –Política Externa espaço e desenvolvimento, Brasília: IPEA, 2014, p. 17-58.
18 Burns mentioned that in the 1960, but this idea is still present nowadays. Cf. BURNS, E. Bradford –
«Tradition and Variation in Brazilian Foreign Policy», In Journal of Inter-American Studies, Vol. 9, N.º
2, 1967, pp. 195-212.
19 STUENKEL, Oliver e TAYLOR, Matthew M. – «The Brazilian Liberal Tradition and the Global
Liberal Order», In STUENKEL, Oliver e TAYLOR, Matthew M. (eds) – Brazil on the Global Stage, Nova Iorque: Palgrave Macmillan, 2015, p. 50.
20 Regarding foreign policy during FHC’s term, vd. BURGES, Sean –Brazilian Foreign Policy After the
revelation process which had been consolidated with President Lula da Silva through his participation in multilateral and international forums, relations with Great Powers and an active diplomatic exercise as well as his statements concerning the international
agenda issues21.
The analysis of Lula da Silva’s speeches discloses the existence of an optimistic view about Brazilian capabilities. In 2002, even as elected-president, Lula visited the US and it was visible his intention to develop politics able to influence the international agenda22.
The ability to influence international decisions and the self-recognition of that ability has been started to be done in a non-dissimulated and more active way. At the regional level, the discourse and attitudes were characterized by some contention in order to avoid a misunderstanding related with hegemony in the neighbourhood.
Paradoxically, the focus on the international scene had been accompanied by a «regional activism»23. Brazilian external behavior rested upon the dilemma between the
neighbourhoods recognition of Brazilian capabilities and power, and Brazilian resources and global ambition. For such, the desire to stabilize the region had worked as a requisite for its international projection ambition which coexisted with Brazilian South-American identity. Lula develops an integrated identity including elements from the regional identity and from a global one24.
4. The study of Brazilian foreign policy levels
Foreign policy is not just a result of international opportunities and constrains, but also of the interaction between the external and domestic dimensions. By this way, the
21 Vd. eg. SARAIVA, Miriam Gomes – «Continuidade e mudança na política externa brasileira. As
especificidades do comportamento externo brasileiro de 2003 a 2010», In Relações Internacionais, n.º 37,
2013, pp. 63-78. FONSECA, Carmen – As estratégias de política externa na construção do Brasil emergente: uma análise do período de Lula da Silva. Tese de Doutoramento. Lisboa: Universidade Nova de Lisboa, 2014.
22 SILVA, Lula da – «Discurso do Presidente Eleito Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva proferido no Clube de
Imprensa Nacional dos Estados Unidos durante visita a Washington», 10 de Dezembro de 2002. Consultado a 28 de Maio de 2012. Disponível em: http://www.itamaraty.gov.br/sala-de- imprensa/discursos-artigos-entrevistas-e-outras-comunicacoes/presidente-da-republica-federativa-do-brasil/Discurso-do-Presidente-Eleito-Luiz-Inacio-Lula-da
23 SPEKTOR, Matias – «Ideias de ativismo regional: a transformação das leituras brasileiras da região»,
In Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, vol. 53, n.º 1, 2010, pp. 25-44.
24 MERKE, Federico – «Identidad y Política Exterior. La Argentina y Brasil en Perspectiva Histórica», In
domestic level provides some elements that are useful to understand options made, as James Rosenau refers «domestic factors may be of considerable significance even if they are not primary sources of foreign policy, and on some issues they may well be
dominant»25.
The 2003 Brazilian election had represented the PT power’s arrival. For the first time
this party would not be in the opposition and, despite be presented as the great party in the Congress it could not obtain the necessary majority to avoid the traditional coalitions building – a situation that made difficult the policy negotiations and the consensus building.
4.1. The analysis of the internal level should take into account:
a) The existence of a presidential system that puts the President in front of the legislative initiative not only concerning foreign policy but other domains;
b) The Congress and political parties low level of participation in foreign policy making;
c) The task of foreign policymaking is shared between Itamaraty, namely the Ministry, and the President, what made possible the exercise of a presidential diplomacy. However, despite the multiplication of actors that in an indirect and asymmetric way influence foreign policy making, Itamaraty continues to be the central actor in this domain
d) The role of the public opinion and media. Since late 1990 society started to be
closer of the foreign policy debate. It was only during Lula’s term that one
assisted to a profound change, despite being a residual influence started to be more evident26.
e) Economically, the launch of the economy (because Brazil was recovering from
the crisis of the late 1990’s, having a high external debt and being subject to the
IMF rules) and of social politics, was not exactly coincident with PT ideas.
These policies were crucial to Lula’s re-election in 2006. The 2008 international
economic crises did not affect Brazil directly, and China’s economic high
25 ROSENAU, James N. – «Introduction», In ROSENAU, James N. (ed.) –Domestic sources of foreign
policy, Ontario: Free Press, 1967, p. 4
growth provides Brazil an important exportations destiny of commodities which had an important role on its economic recovery.
f) The constant corruption cases including political high individualities, such as the
President. However these suspicions had not an immediately effect on Lula’s
popularity rankings.
4.2. The international level study had considered:
a) 9/11 effects on US foreign policy and EU internal challenges that put these powers looking to their own navel, despite the conflicts and poverty contexts on Africa and Middle East;
b) The Goldman Sachs report in 2001 that trigger the international image change in countries like Brazil, Russia, India or China based on their economic emergence.
c) The international economic crisis that did not have a negative impact on Brasil, contrary to what had happened in US or European countries. On the contrary, Brazil has taken advantage of the opportunities provided by the crisis – Brazil was invited to take part of an enlarged G8 and G20 has been consolidated.
d) The weight of multilateral mechanisms was reinforced and reformulated. The role of United Nations and UNSC had continued to be discussed. This issue was central on Brazilian foreign policy. The search for a place on UNSC was a
key-issue on Amorim’s strategy.
e) IBSA group was central on the interaction with the Global South, and on the collective behaviour in multilateral organisms, such as the WTO.
f) Iraq war was Lula team’s first international event. Celso Amorim had a clear
idea about the war because he had represented Brazil in the Iraq UNSC panels.
On the contrary of US, Brazil was against the war that started in March 2003. Celso Amorim stated that «Iraq war had created a situation – I do not want to say opportunity (...). So, I could say that this effort to influence the international agenda setting has been felt since the first moments of this Government»27.
g) The decision to project Brazil in the international scene was followed with a regional strategy, what may lay down on the party ideals.
27 AMORIM, Celso – «Aula Magna do ano letivo de 2004, UFRJ», 12 de Janeiro de 2004, In AMORIM,
4.3. The individual level study considers:
some of the ideas, beliefs and interests of Lula’s foreign policy trio: Celso Amorim,
Minister of Foreign Affairs; Samuel Pinheiro Guimarães, Itamaraty’s Secretary General;
and Marco Aurélio Garcia, President Special Adviser.
The analysis does not include the cognitive frameworks; instead it gives emphasis to the decision-makers ideas that may allow to a better understanding of their world views and perceptions about Brazilian capabilities. As Neack refers, «national leaders are said to play a two-level, dual, or nested game between the demands of the international system and those of domestic politics»28. The analysis rests upon:
a) The diplomatic trio, in Planalto and Itamaraty, had a clear view about Brazilian foreign policy course. The view included the main traditional diplomatic principles, despite some adjustment in order to focus the international protagonism ambition throughout partnership diversification and the use of the multilateral organisms. Rather than a rupture with former foreign policy
direction, during Lula da Silva’s term it was developed a new foreign policy style narrowly related with the new government leaderships – which lay down
on the ambition, prestige and influence’s capability of Brazil;
b) The charismatic personality of Lula da Silva – it was central for what Brazil has achieved internal and externally29. Lula was a TV star. His foreign policy was
internally criticized but externally acclaimed. He was much more ideological on
the domestic level and much more pragmatic on the external side30.
c) The interaction between Lula and Celso Amorim had played an important role
how the foreign policy goals had been formulated, «Amorim said ‘Brazil is one
of the world greats, Brazil will be seated in all the tables where decisions would
be taken’. The “vira-latas” complex had changed thanks to Amorim»31. Amorim
is an experiment diplomat in multilateral organizations and in government posts.
28 NEACK, Laura –The new foreign policy: power seeking in a globalized era, p. 27.
29 HUNTER, Wendy e POWER, Timothy J .– «Lula’s Brazil at midterm», 2005, p 130. RICUPERO,
Rubens – «Carisma e prestígio: a diplomacia do período Lula de 2003 a 2010», In Política Externa, Vol. 19, n.º 1, 2010, p. 41.
30Ibidem.
31 Interview done by the author to a Brazilian diplomat, alto funcionário do Itamaraty (I), Brasília, April
His ideas are present in his speeches during the 1990’s as well as during Lula
administration32. Amorim’s view rested upon the notion of prestige – «for him
this was the main gain in foreign policy, that is, do more than you have. If you
have X so you will try to do Y. And Lula support him, he also has that approach, he managed foreign policy with the resources that he had not!»33.
d) To Pinheiro Guimarães and Marco Aurélio Garcia is due the focus on the regional dimension, despite their world view in which Brazil also has the natural right to exert a prominent role. Pinheiro Guimarães had also a natural position against the US and Garcia was an expert on regional issues even the political-party issues of South American due to his role played on the Party since its foundation34.
5. Final remarks
This paper focused on the interaction of the 3 levels of FPA, stressing how individual ideas, values and interests were crucial to instrumentalize and maximize the opportunities created by the international system and by the domestic context.
On the one hand, a focus on the international level – characterized by a transformative moment and openness to new powers – helps to explain the recovery of the Brazilian belief on its «greatness destiny». On the other hand, a focus on the domestic level – with a growing economy and the reduction of poverty and inequality allows understanding the existence of a room of manoeuvre for the pursuit of a more active foreign policy on which a growing part of society start to be interested.
At the same time, the features of the political system – the Presidential power concentration, including foreign policy direction, and the exercise of a presidential diplomacy despite foreign policy-making sharing between the President and Itamaraty –
32 AMORIM, Celso – «Uma diplomacia voltada para o desenvolvimento e a Democracia», In FONSECA
Jr, Gélson e CASTRO, Sérgio H. Nabuco de –Temas de Política Externa Brasileira II, vol. I, 1997 (1ª edição, 1994), pp. 16-18. AMORIM, Celso – «Política Externa do Governo Lula: os dois primeiros anos», In Análise de Conjuntura OPSA, n.º 4, IUPERJ, Março de 2005, p. 1. [Consultado a 9 de Setembro
de 2008]. Disponível em:
http://observatorio.iesp.uerj.br/images/pdf/analise/5_analises_Artigo%20Celso%20Amorim.pdf.p. 14.
33 Interview done by the author to a Brazilian diplomat, alto funcionário do Itamaraty (II), Brasília, April
18th 2012 (request of anonymity).
34 Interview done by the author to a Brazilian diplomat, alto funcionário do Itamaraty (II), Brasília, April
undoubtedly bring to the discussion the individual level. At this level the trio that goes along with the President was determinant to define the main foreign policy goals. The analysis of the speeches and behaviours is pertinent to understand of how goals were
decided, namely the search for an influent role in the international system.
Moreover, it is the articulation among the three levels that explains the course correction of Brazilian foreign policy during Lula’s term. As it was referred, region has been defined officially as the foreign policy priority, but, in practice, Brazilian official discourse and behaviours focused on country’s international projection.
In view of the analysis, if domestic economic and political stability were favourable to the implementation of social policies which allowed to continue and accelerate social stability, also international system characteristics facilitate the definition of a more active foreign policy. For such foreign policy leadership’s ideas, beliefs and interests were sine qua non condition. With a stable domestic context and with a permeable international system, but without the ambition and the beliefs of the individuals, for sure, the foreign policy goals definition would be much more constrained and, probably, limited to the South-American region. This behaviour allowed the consolidation of Brazilian stance as an emerging power in the international system because it strengthened its global dimension and influence ability which started to co-exist with a non-dissimulated protagonism and a regional interdependence.
Farther, the focus on the role of the individual is valued when one observes the course followed by President Dilma Rousseff. In spite of being important not undermine the
features of domestic and external levels that suffered deep changes. At the same time, it
is possible to observe an unfinished emergence during Lula da Silva’s terms and for that
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