$&7$25723%5$6
25,*,1$/$57,&/(
&203$5$7,9(678'<21%,20(&+$1,&$/
3523(57,(62)7+(&(175$/3257,212) )52=(1$1')5(6+&$/&$1(867(1'21
52'5,*2%(=(55$'(0(1(=(65(,))$/%(5727(6&21,&52&,5$8/%2//,*(51(72&6$5$8*86720$57,163(5(,5$
6800$5<
$OORJUDIWVWRUDJHPHWKRGVFDQFKDQJHVRPHPHFKDQLFDOFKDUDF WHULVWLFVRIWLVVXHV:LWKWKHREMHFWLYHRIDQDO\]LQJWKHLQIOXHQFHRI IUHH]LQJSKHQRPHQRQDQGVWRUDJHWLPHRQWHQGRQV·ELRPHFKDQLFDO SURSHUWLHVWKHDXWKRUVVWXGLHGFDOFDQHXVWHQGRQVREWDLQHGIURP KXPDQFDGDYHUVZLWKDQDYHUDJHDJHRI\HDUVUDQJLQJ IURPWR\HDUVROGEHLQJPDOHVDQGWKUHHIHPDOHV)URP HDFKFDGDYHUWZRWHQGRQVZHUHUHPRYHGRQHWHVWHGLQLWVIUHVK VWDWHDQGWKHFRQWUDODWHUDORQHIUR]HQDW&LQDQHOHFWULFIUHH]HU GXULQJDSHULRGRIVL[RUZHHNV7KHERGLHVRIHYLGHQFHZHUH VXEPLWWHGWRWUDFWLRQDVVD\VLQD.UDWRV.PHFKDQLFDODVVD\
&LWDWLRQ5HLII5%0&URFL$7%ROOLJHU1HWR53HUHLUD&$0&RPSDUDWLYHVWXG\RQELRPHFKDQLFDOSURSHUWLHVRIWKHFHQWUDOSRUWLRQRIIUR]HQDQGIUHVKFDOFDQHXVWHQGRQ
$FWD2UWRS%UDV>VHULDORQWKH,QWHUQHW@$YDLODEOHIURP85/KWWSZZZVFLHOREUDRE
,1752'8&7,21
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
UHSURGXFHDOORJHQLFWHQGRQV·WUDQVSODQWVE\PHDQVRIH[SHULPHQWDO VWXGLHVDQGVXUJLFDODVVHVVPHQWVIRUUHFRQVWUXFWLQJOLJDPHQWRU WHQGLQRXVLQMXULHVZKHWKHUWKHVHDUHFKURQLFRUDFXWH
$QLPSRUWDQWDVSHFWDVVRFLDWHGWRWKHXVHRIDOORJUDIWVLVUHJDUG LQJLWVVWRUDJHSURFHGXUH)RUDOORZLQJLWPDQ\WLVVXHVSURFHVVLQJ WHFKQLTXHVKDYHEHHQGHVFULEHGLQFOXGLQJIUHH]LQJO\RSKLOL]DWLRQ DQG FU\RSUHVHUYDWLRQ $OO WKHVH WHFKQLTXHV LPSRVH VLJQLILFDQW GLVDGYDQWDJHVERWKELRORJLFDODQGELRPHFKDQLFDO7KHGLIIHUHQW PHWKRGVHPSOR\HGIRUVWRULQJJUDIWVPD\OHDGWRFKDQJHVLQLWV ELRPHFKDQLFDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFV
7KH7LVVXH/LEUDU\RIWKH2UWKRSDHGLFVDQG7UDXPDWRORJ\,QVWLWXWH +RVSLWDOGDV&OLQLFDV0HGLFDO&ROOHJH8QLYHUVLW\RI6mR3DXOR VWRUHV WLVVXHV E\ PHDQV RI IUHH]LQJ SURFHGXUHV DW & DQG XVHVQRDGGLWLRQDOPHWKRGIRUVWHULOL]DWLRQRQFHHYHU\SURFHVVWKDW LQFOXGHVWLVVXHVXSWDNHSURFHVVLQJDQGSDFNDJLQJLVSHUIRUPHG XQGHUDVHSWLFFRQGLWLRQV
6RPHDXWKRUVVWXG\WKHHIIHFWVRIIUHH]LQJRQWHQGRQVDQGOLJD PHQWVSURSHUWLHVE\PHDQVRIH[SHULPHQWDOPRGHOVLQDQLPDOV +RZHYHUWKHUHLVQRUHSRUWLQOLWHUDWXUHDGGUHVVLQJWKHEHKDYLRU RIKXPDQWHQGRQVRUOLJDPHQWVVXEPLWWHGWRIUHH]LQJDW²R&
SUHYLRXVO\WRLWVLQVHUWLRQDVDOORJUDIWV
7KHREMHFWLYHRIWKLVVWXG\ZDVWRFRPSDUHFHUWDLQELRPHFKDQLFDO SURSHUWLHVVWUHQJWKDWPD[LPXPUHVLVWDQFHOLPLWVWLIIQHVVWHQVLRQ
6WXG\FRQGXFWHGDWWKH2UWKRSDHGLFVDQG7UDXPDWRORJ\,QVWLWXWH+&)0863
&RUUHVSRQGHQFHVWR5XD(SLVFRSDOQR$SWR&(36mR&DUORV²63(PDLOURGULJRUHLII#KRWPDLOFRP
0DVWHULQ2UWKRSDHGLFVDQG7UDXPDWRORJ\2UWKRSDHGLFVDQG7UDXPDWRORJ\,QVWLWXWH+RVSLWDOGDV&OtQLFDV0HGLFDO&ROOHJH8QLYHUVLW\RI6mR3DXOR
$VVRFLDWH3URIHVVRU'HSDUWPHQWRI2UWKRSDHGLFVDQG7UDXPDWRORJ\+RVSLWDOGDV&OtQLFDV0HGLFDO&ROOHJH8QLYHUVLW\RI6mR3DXOR
2UWKRSDHGLFGRFWRU$VVLVWDQW3K'DQGFRUHVSRQVLEOHIRUWKH/DERUDWRU\RI%LRPHFKDQLFV2UWKRSDHGLFVDQG7UDXPDWRORJ\,QVWLWXWH+&)0863
+HDOWK7HFKQRORJLVWH[SHUWLQ%LRPHFKDQLFVDQGFRRUGLQDWRURIWKHPHFKDQLFDODUHDIRUWKH/DERUDWRU\RI%LRPHFKDQLFV2UWKRSDHGLFVDQG7UDXPDWRORJ\,QVWLWXWH+&)0863 5HFHLYHGLQDSSURYHGLQ
PDFKLQH GHOLYHULQJ VWUHQJWKGHIRUPDWLRQ JUDSKLFV 6WUHQJWK DW PD[LPXPUHVLVWDQFHOLPLWVWLIIQHVVWHQVLRQDWPD[LPXPUHVLVWDQFH OLPLWUHODWLYHGHIRUPDWLRQDQGHODVWLFLW\PRGXOHSDUDPHWHUVZHUH DVVHVVHG 7KH UHVXOWV ZHUH FRPSDUHG DQG VWDWLVWLFDOO\ DQDO\]HG E\´6WXGHQW·VWPHWKRGµZLWKDVLJQLILFDQFHOHYHORIZLWKQR VLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHRQYDOXHVDFKLHYHGEHWZHHQJURXSV:HFRQ FOXGHGWKDWIUHH]LQJDW&GRHVQRWFDXVHFKDQJHVWRWHQGRQV·
ELRPHFKDQLFDOSURSHUWLHVGHVSLWHRIVWRUDJHWLPH
.H\ZRUGV)UHH]LQJ 7UDQVSODQWDWLRQ KRPRORJRXV $FKLOOHV WHQGRQ%LRPHFKDQLFV
DW PD[LPXP UHVLVWDQFH OLPLW UHODWLYH GHIRUPDWLRQ DQG HODVWLFLW\
PRGXOHRIKXPDQFDGDYHUV·$FKLOOHVWHQGRQVIUR]HQDW²R&WR IUHVK$FKLOOHVWHQGRQVDQGWRDVVHVVWKHLQIOXHQFHRIVWRUDJHWLPH RQWKRVHSURSHUWLHV
0$7(5,$/6$1'0(7+2'6
7KHPDWHULDORIWKLVVWXG\ZDVFRQVWLWXWHGRI$FKLOOHVWHQGRQV UHPRYHGIURPKXPDQFDGDYHUVUHJLVWHUHGDWWKH'HDWK([DPLQ LQJ6HUYLFHRI6mR3DXORFLW\692&863'DWDFRQFHUQLQJDJH JHQGHU DQG GDWH RI GHDWK ZHUH REWDLQHG IURP 692&863 ILOHV
$JHVUDQJHGIURPWR\HDUVDYHUDJH\HDUV)URPWKH FDGDYHUVZHUHPDOHVDQGWKUHHZHUHIHPDOHV
,QFOXVLRQFULWHULD
&DGDYHUVEHORQJLQJWRWKHDJHJURXSRI\HDUVZLWKQRSUHYL RXVSDWKRORJLHVDFFRUGLQJWR692&863GDWDDQGSUHVHQWLQJZLWK QRVLJQVRIORFDOFKDQJHVVXFKDVZRXQGVRUVFDUVZHUHXVHG )URPHDFKFDGDYHUWHQGRQVZHUHUHPRYHGRQHVHUYLQJDVFRQWURO IUHVKDQGWKHRWKHUVXEPLWWHGWRIUHH]LQJWHPSHUDWXUHV 7HQGRQVSUHSDUDWLRQ
7HQGRQVZHUHGLYLGHGLQWRIRXUJURXSVRIXQLWV
*& WKH FRQWURO JURXS ZLWK ´IUHVKµ WHQGRQV ZKRVH SDLUV ZHUH VWXGLHGDIWHUZHHNVDW&
*&WKHFRQWUROJURXSZLWK´IUHVKµWHQGRQVZKRVHSDLUVZHUH VWXGLHGDIWHUZHHNVDW&
*(WKHVWXG\JURXSZLWKWHQGRQVVXEPLWWHGWRDIUHH]LQJWHP SHUDWXUHRI&IRUVL[ZHHNV
*(WKHVWXG\JURXSZLWKWHQGRQVVXEPLWWHGWRDIUHH]LQJWHP SHUDWXUHRI&IRUZHHNV
$IWHU EHLQJ UHPRYHG WHQGRQV RQ FRQWURO JURXS IUHVK ZHUH PDLQWDLQHG LQ VHDOHG SRO\HWK\OHQH SDFNDJHV LQ D GRPHVWLFNLQG UHIULJHUDWRUDW&IRUDSHULRGRIKRXUVXQWLODVVD\VZHUH SHUIRUPHG
$&7$25723%5$6 6WXG\ JURXS WHQGRQV ZHUH NHSW LQ WKUHH VHDOHG SRO\HWK\OHQH
SDFNDJHVRIPDQGIUR]HQDWDWHPSHUDWXUHRI²R&LQDQ HOHFWULFKRUL]RQWDOIUHH]HU6$1<2ZLWK&2EDFNXSWHPSHUDWXUH PDLQWHQDQFHFRQWUROE\JUDSKLFDOPRQLWRULQJDQGEXLOWLQDODUPYDOYH FRQQHFWHG WR DQ H[WHUQDO DODUP V\VWHP IRU WHPSHUDWXUHV DERYH
²R&7HQGRQVRQJURXS*(ZHUHNHSWLQIUHH]HUDW²R&IRU VL[ZHHNVDQGWHQGRQVRQJURXS*(DWWKHVDPHWHPSHUDWXUH IRUZHHNV
&RQWUROJURXSSUHSDUDWLRQIRUDVVD\
)RUFRQWUROJURXSDVVD\WHQGRQVZHUHUHPRYHGIURPWKHGRPHV WLFNLQG UHIULJHUDWRU DW R & DQG ZUDSSHG ZLWK JDX]H SLHFHV PRLVWXUL]HGZLWKSK\VLRORJLFDOVDOLQHVROXWLRQXQWLOERGLHVRI HYLGHQFHZHUHSUHSDUHG
6WXG\JURXSSUHSDUDWLRQIRUDVVD\
2QWKHGD\EHIRUHDVVD\SHUIRUPDQFHIUR]HQWHQGRQVZHUHWUDQV IHUUHGIURPIUHH]HUDW²R&WRGRPHVWLFNLQGUHIULJHUDWRUDWR&
ZKHUHWKH\UHPDLQHGIRUKRXUV6XEVHTXHQWO\WKH\ZHUHUHPRYHG DQGZUDSSHGZLWKWZRJDX]HSLHFHVPRLVWXUL]HGZLWKSK\VL RORJLFDOVDOLQHVROXWLRQXQWLOERGLHVRIHYLGHQFHZHUHSUHSDUHG 3UHSDUDWLRQRIERGLHVRIHYLGHQFH
7HQGRQVZHUHSODFHGH[WHQGHGRYHUDZRRGHQVXUIDFHDQGLWVGLVWDOHQG ZDVVWDELOL]HGZLWKWKHDLGRIDPHWDOIL[DWLRQGHYLFH8VLQJDGRXEOH KDQGOHNQLIHEODGHVFPDZD\IURPHDFKRWKHUWKHFHQWUDOVWULSRIWKH WHQGRQZDVUHPRYHGLQLWVORQJLWXGLQDORULHQWDWLRQ
:LWKWKHDLGRIDQRUGLQDU\NQLIHWKHWHQGRQVWULSZDVVHFWLRQHGDWD FURVVVHFWLRQSODQHIURPLWVORQJLWXGLQDOD[LVLQLWVHQGVVRWKDWWKH HQGOHQJWKRIWKHERG\RIHYLGHQFHZDVFP
0HFKDQLFDODVVD\V
$OODQDWRPLFDOSLHFHVZHUHVXEPLWWHGWRWUDFWLRQDVVD\VLQDXQL YHUVDO PHFKDQLFDO DVVD\ PDFKLQH .5$726 . EXLOW ZLWK D .JORDGFHOO(DFKHQGRIWKHERG\RIHYLGHQFHZDVIL[DWHG WRDWKUHDGHGVLQXVRLGDOFODZZLWKURXQGHGHGJHVDSSURSULDWHO\
GHVLJQHGIRUWHQGLQRXVIL[DWLRQFRPSRVHGRIWZRSODWHVDWWDFKHG E\WZRFRPSUHVVLRQVFUHZV$IWHUDSUHOLPLQDU\WHVWILYH1PYDOXH ZDVGHWHUPLQHGIRUWKHPRPHQWRIWRUVLRQWREHDSSOLHGRQVFUHZV
²UHTXLUHGIRUDQDGHTXDWHIL[DWLRQRIWKHJUDIW²E\PHDQVRIDGLJLWDO 0(7$/$&WRUTXLPHWHUZLWKFDSDFLW\IRU1P7KH´GLVWDOFODZµ HQFRPSDVVHGWKHILYHFHQWLPHWHUVSUR[LPDOWRWKHERG\RIHYLGHQFH 7KHGLVWDQFHEHWZHHQFODZVEHIRUHSODWHVFRPSUHVVLRQZDVVL[
FP $IWHU FRPSUHVVLRQ WKDW GLVWDQFH ZDV PHDVXUHG DJDLQ DQG HVWDEOLVKHGDV/$VVD\VZHUHSHUIRUPHGDWDPPPLQVSHHG 7KHPDFKLQHIXQFWLRQLQJZDVPRQLWRUHGE\DQ,%03&FRPSDWLEOH FRPSXWHUZKLFKFDSWXUHGDQGDGGUHVVHGGDWDEXLOGLQJDEVROXWH DQGUHODWLYHVWUHQJWKGHIRUPDWLRQJUDSKV
3DUDPHWHUVDVVHVVHG
7KHSDUDPHWHUVDVVHVVHGRQWUDFWLRQDVVD\VIRUFRQWURODQGVWXG\
JURXSVZHUH6WUHQJWKDWPD[LPXPUHVLVWDQFHOLPLW605/LQ 1HZWRQV6WLIIQHVV.LQ1HZWRQVE\PLOOLPHWHUV1PP 7HQVLRQDWPD[LPXPUHVLVWDQFHOLPLW705/LQ0HJD3DVFDO03D 5HODWLYHGHIRUPDWLRQHDVDSHUFHQWDJHDQG(ODVWLFLW\
PRGXOH(LQ0HJD3DVFDO03D
7KHGHWHUPLQDWLRQRIWKHFURVVVHFWLRQDODUHDRIWKHERGLHVRIHYL GHQFHZDVUHTXLUHGIRUEXLOGLQJWHQVLRQDWPD[LPXPUHVLVWDQFHOLPLW 705/DQGHODVWLFLW\PRGXOH(JUDSKV)RUWKLVUHDVRQWKHERGLHV RIHYLGHQFHZHUHSRVLWLRQHGEHWZHHQDWUDQVSDUHQWVXSSRUWWDEOH DQGDQDFU\OLFEORFNRYHUZKLFKDVWHDG\ORDGZDVDSSOLHG7KHQ WKLVGHYLFHZDVSRVLWLRQHGDWDSURILOHSURMHFWRUZKHUHZHZHUHDEOH WRREWDLQE\PHDQVRIUHIUDFWHGDQGUHIOHFWHGUD\VSURMHFWHGRQD VFUHHQZLGWKDQGKHLJKWYDOXHVIRUWKHERGLHVRIHYLGHQFH)URP ZLGWKDQGKHLJKWYDOXHVWKHFURVVVHFWLRQDODUHZDVFDOFXODWHG
&RPSDUDWLYH DQDO\VHV RI WKH SDUDPHWHUV GHVFULEHG DERYH ZHUH SHUIRUPHGEHWZHHQJURXSV*&DQG*(EHWZHHQJURXSV*&
DQG*(DQGEHWZHHQJURXSV*(DQG*(
6WDWLVWLFDOWUHDWPHQW
:HSHUIRUPHGWKHGHVFULSWLYHVWDWLVWLFV²DYHUDJH$9*VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQ6'DYHUDJHVWDQGDUGHUURU$6(PD[LPXP0$;DQG PLQLPXP0,1²RITXDQWLWDWLYHSDUDPHWHUV,QWKHFRPSDUDWLYH DQDO\VLVRISDUDPHWULFSDLUHGJURXSVWKH6WXGHQW·VSDLUHGWWHVW ZDVXVHG)RUWKHDQDO\VLVRISDUDPHWULFQRQSDLUHGJURXSVZH XVHG WKH 6WXGHQW·V QRQSDLUHG WWHVW 7KH VLJQLILFDQFH OHYHO ZDV GHWHUPLQHGDW
5(68/76
1RVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHZDVIRXQGLQWKHFRPSDUDWLYH DQDO\VLVRITXDQWLWDWLYHSDUDPHWHUVEHWZHHQWKHVWXG\JURXSZLWK ZHHNIUR]HQWHQGRQV*(DQGWKHFRQWUROJURXS*&7DEOH EHWZHHQWKHVWXG\JURXSZLWKVL[ZHHNIUR]HQWHQGRQV*(
DQGWKHFRQWUROJURXS*&7DEOHDQGEHWZHHQWKHVWXG\JURXS ZLWKZHHNIUR]HQWHQGRQV*(DQGWKHJURXSZLWKVL[ZHHN IUR]HQWHQGRQV*(7DEOH
',6&866,21
7KHRXWFRPHRIDOLJDPHQWRUWHQGRQUHFRQVWUXFWLRQVXUJHU\LVDPRQJ RWKHUIDFWRUVGLUHFWO\DVVRFLDWHGWRWKHNLQGRIJUDIWHPSOR\HG:KLOH DUWLILFLDOOLJDPHQWVZHUHQRWDFFHSWHGDPRQJRUWKRSDHGLFGRFWRUV WKHXVHRIDXWRJHQRXVWLVVXH²FHUWDLQO\WKHPRVWDSSURSULDWH²LVQRW H[HPSWHGIURPFRPSOLFDWLRQVWRWKHGRQDWRUVLWH
,QWKLVVHQVHWKHDOORJUDIWEHFRPHVDQDWWUDFWLYHRSWLRQ,WFDQEH SURPSWO\DYDLODEOHLQVHYHUDONLQGVRIWLVVXHV$FKLOOHVWHQGRQSDWHOODU OLJDPHQWIDVFLDODWDJUDFLOHDQGVHPLWHQGLQRXVPXVFOHV·WHQGRQV DOORZVIRUVWRUDJHDQGEHFDXVHLWLVSUHSDUHGSUHYLRXVO\WRWKHEHJLQ QLQJRIVXUJHU\VXUJLFDOWLPHDQGWKHWLPHRIOLPELVFKHPLDUHVXOWLQJ IURPWRXUQLTXHWXVH²ZKHQDSSOLFDEOH²DUHUHGXFHG2QWKHRWKHU KDQGWKHKLJKWHFKQLFDOFRVWWKHULVNRIGLVHDVHVWUDQVPLVVLRQDQGWKH SRWHQWLDOZHDNHQLQJRIWKHJUDIWDVDUHVXOWRIWKHSUHSDUDWLRQSURFHVV FRQVWLWXWHDELJGLVDGYDQWDJHIRUWKHXVHRIDOORJUDIWV
$FFRUGLQJWR=LPPHUPDQHWDOVWUXFWXUDOGLVRUGHUVRIFROODJHQ ILEHUVOHDGWRFKDQJHVRQELRPHFKDQLFDOSURSHUWLHVRIJUDIWVDQG FDQDOVRFKDQJHLWVUHPRGHOLQJUHYDVFXODUL]DWLRQDQGUHLQWHJUDWLRQ DELOLWLHV7KHVHGLVRUGHUVFDQDOVREHWULJJHUHGE\WKHDFWLYLW\RI HQ]\PHVSUHVHQWRQWLVVXHV$WWHPSHUDWXUHVDERYH²R&VRPH HQ]\PHVDUHVWLOODFWLYHWXUQLQJVWRUDJHIRUH[WHQGHGSHULRGVXQIHD VLEOH2QWKHRWKHUKDQGDWWHPSHUDWXUHVEHORZ²R&HQ]\PDWLF GHVWUXFWLRQLVPLQLPDOZLWKDWOHDVWWKHFROODJHQDVHHQ]\PHEHLQJ LQDFWLYH
7KHLQWHQWLRQRIVHOHFWLQJDVWXG\LQYROYLQJKXPDQFDGDYHUV·WLVVXHV ZDVWRSXWDQH[SHULPHQWDOPRGHOFORVHUWRFOLQLFDOSUDFWLFH7KXVZH WULHGWRUHSURGXFHWKHPHWKRGRORJ\HPSOR\HGLQWKHXVHRIKXPDQ
:KHUH 605/ 6WUHQJWK DW 0D[LPXP 5HVLVWDQFH /LPLW . 6WLIIQHVV
$ $YHUDJH DUHD 705/ 7HQVLRQ DW 0D[LPXP 5HVLVWDQFH /LPLW H 5HODWLYHGHIRUPDWLRQ( HODVWLFLW\PRGXOHS VLJQLILFDQFHUDWLRQV QRQVLJQLILFDQW6RXUFH,27+&)0863
7DEOH&RPSDULVRQRITXDQWLWDWLYHSDUDPHWHUVVWXGLHGEHWZHHQJURXSVJH DQGJF6WDWLVWLFDODQDO\VLVE\SDLUHGWWHVWD
&RPSDULVRQEHWZHHQJURXSV*(DQG*&
3DUDPHWHUV 6WXGHQWVWWHVW3DLUHG 6LJQLILFDQFH
SMRL p = 0.608 t = 0.532 n.s.
K p = 0.616 t = 0.519 n.s.
A p = 0.397 t = 0.889 n.s.
TMRL p = 0.225 t = 1.301 n.s.
¡% p = 0.740 t = 0.343 n.s.
E p = 0.167 t = 0.502 n.s.
$&7$25723%5$6
5()(5(1&(6
1LNRODRX3.6HDEHU$9*OLVVRQ555LEEHFN%0%DVVHWW)+UG$QWHULRUFUXFLDWHDOOR JUDIWWUDQVSODQWDWLRQ/RQJWHUPIXQFWLRQKLVWRORJ\UHYDVFXODUL]DWLRQDQGRSHUDWLYHWHFK QLTXH$P-6SRUWV0HG
6KLQR.,QRXH0+RULEH6+DPDGD02QR.5HFRQVWUXFWLRQRIWKHDQWHULRUFUXFLDWH OLJDPHQWXVLQJDOORJHQLFWHQGRQ/RQJWHUPIROORZXS$P-6SRUWV0HG -DFNVRQ':*URRG(6*ROGVWHLQ-'5RVHQ0$.XU]ZHLO35 &XPPLQJV-)HWDO$
FRPSDULVLRQRISDWHOODUWHQGRQDXWRJUDIWDQGDOORJUDIWXVHGIRUDQWHULRUFUXFLDWHOLJDPHQW UHFRQVWUXFWLRQLQWKHJRDWPRGHO$P-6SRUWV0HG
/HYLWW5/0DOLQLQ73RVDGD$0LFKDORZ$HWDO5HFRQVWUXFWLRQRIDQWHULRUFUXFLDWH OLJDPHQWV ZLWK ERQHSDWHOODU WHQGRQERQH DQG DFKLOOHV DOORJUDIWV &OLQ 2UWKRS 5HODW 5HV
)DOFRQLHUR533DOOLV03&KURQLFUXSWXUHRIDSDWHOODUWHQGRQDWHFKQLTXHIRUUHFRQVWUXF WLRQZLWK$FKLOOHVDOORJUDIW$UWKURVFRS\
0F1DOO\3'0DUFHOOL($$FKLOOHVDOORJUDIWUHFRQVWUXFWLRQRIDFURQLFSDWHOODUWHQGRQUXS WXUH$UWKURVFRS\
/DYLJQH 0- 6DQFKH] $$ &RXWWV 5' 5HFXUUHQW GLVORFDWLRQ DIWHU WRWDO KLS DUWKURSODVW\
WUHDWPHQWZLWKDQ$FKLOOHVWHQGRQDOORJUDIW-$UWKURSODVW\
=LPPHUPDQ0&&RQWLOLDQR-+3DUVRQV-53UHZHWW$%LOORWWL-7KHELRPHFKDQLFVDQG
KLVWRSDWRORJ\RIFKHPLFDOO\SURFHVVHGSDWHOODUWHQGRQDOORJUDIWVIRUDQWHULRUFUXFLDWHOLJD PHQWUHSODFHPHQW$P-6SRUWV0HG
-DFNVRQ':*URRG(6:LOFR[3%XWOHU'/6LPRQ70+ROGHQ-3HWDO7KHHIIHFWVRI SURFHVVLQJWHFKQLTXHVRQWKHPHFKDQLFDOSURSHUWLHVRIERQHDQWHULRUFUXFLDWHOLJDPHQW ERQHDOORJUDIWV$QH[SHULPHQWDOVWXG\LQJRDWV$P-6SRUWV0HG :RR6/2UODQGR&$&DPS-)$NHVRQ:+(IIHFWVRISRVWPRUWHPVWRUDJHE\IUHH]LQJ
RQOLJDPHQWWHQVLOHEHKDYLRU-%LRPHFK
7RPIRUG :: 'RSSHOW 6+ 0DQNLQ +- )ULHGODHQGHU *( %RQH EDQN SURFHGXUHV &OLQ 2UWKRS5HODW5HV
%DUDG6&DEDXG+(5RGULJR--(IIHFWVRIVWRUDJHDWoGHJUHHV&DVFRPSDUDG WRGHJUHHV&RQWKHVWUHQJWKRIUKHVXVPRQNH\DQWHULRUFUXFLDWHOLJDPHQWV7UDQV 2UWKRS5HV6RF
%HFKWROG-((DVWOXQG'7%XWWV0./DJHUERUJ').\OH5)7KHHIIHFWVRIIUHH]HGULHG DQGHWK\OHQHR[LGHVWHULOL]DWLRQRQWKHPHFKDQLFDOSURSHUWLHVRIKXPDQSDWHOODUWHQGRQ
$P-6SRUWV0HG
&RRSHU'('HQJ;+%XUVWHLQ$/:DUUHQ5)7KHVWUHQJWKRIWKHFHQWUDOWKLUGSDWHOODU WHQGRQJUDIWDELRPHFKDQLFDOVWXG\$P-6SRUWV0HG
DOORJUDIWVLQFOXGLQJWKHNLQGRIWLVVXHPDQLSXODWLRQGHWDLOVDQGWKH GLPHQVLRQRIWKHERGLHVRIHYLGHQFH:HXVHGWKH$FKLOOHVWHQGRQIRU WKLVVWXG\GXHWRWKHODUJHQXPEHURIDXWKRUVZKRUHSRUWHGLWVXVHLQ GLIIHUHQWNLQGVRIWHQGRQDQGOLJDPHQWUHFRQVWUXFWLRQV
6LQFHWKHNH\UROHRIWHQGRQVDQGOLJDPHQWVLVWRWUDQVIHUWHQVLOH ORDGH[SHULPHQWDOVWXGLHVRIWKHELRPHFKDQLFDOSURSHUWLHVRIWKHVH WLVVXHVDUHLQJHQHUDOSHUIRUPHGE\PHDQVRIWUDFWLRQDVVD\V7KH REMHFWLYHRIWKRVHWHVWVLVWRFDSWXUHVWUHQJWKGHIRUPDWLRQJUDSKV IURPZKLFKPHFKDQLFDOSURSHUWLHVDUHGHWHUPLQHG7KHWUDFWLRQDV VD\FRQVLVWVRIVXEPLWWLQJDPDWHULDOWRDVWUHQJWKWHQGLQJWRVWUHWFK RUHORQJDWHLW7KHDVVD\LVXVXDOO\SHUIRUPHGLQDERG\RIHYLGHQFH
ZLWKVWDQGDUGIRUPDWVDQGGLPHQVLRQVIRUEHLQJDEOHWRFRPSDUH WKHUHVXOWVDFKLHYHGRULIUHTXLUHGWRUHSURGXFHWKHP<HWWUDFWLRQ WHVWVPD\EHVXEMHFWHGWRELDVFDXVHGE\VHYHUDOIDFWRUVWKDWOHDG WRH[SHULPHQWDODUWLIDFWVZLWKUHVXOWDQWUHVXOWVUHOLDELOLW\ORVV:KHQ UHYLHZLQJWKHLUFRPSOLFDWLRQV1LNRODRXHWDOQRWHWKDWERWKWKH VWDQGDUGL]DWLRQRIJUDIWGLPHQVLRQVHVSHFLDOO\WKHFURVVVHFWLRQDO DUHDPHDVXUHPHQWDQGLWVVWDEOHIL[DWLRQRQWRWKHFODZVDUHLP SRUWDQWIDFWRUVIRUDQRYHUDOOVXFFHVVIXOVXUJHU\
2XUUHVXOWVDUHFRQVLVWHQWZLWKWKRVHGHVFULEHGE\RWKHUDXWKRUV
%DUDGHWDOGLGQ·WILQGVLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKHPH FKDQLFDOSURSHUWLHVRI$&/LQ5KHVXVPRQNH\V·NQHHVHLWKHUWKRVH IUR]HQDW²R&RUIUHVKRQHVDIWHUDSHULRGRIWKUHHWRILYHZHHNV
%HFKWROGHWDOFRPSDUHGWKHHIIHFWVRIIUHH]LQJSURFHVVHVDW²R
&DQGO\RSKLOL]DWLRQRYHUWKHPHFKDQLFDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIKXPDQ SDWHOODUWHQGRQVVXJJHVWLQJWKDWWKHUHVLVWDQFHRIIUR]HQWHQGRQV ZDVVXSHULRUWRO\RSKLOL]HGWHQGRQV·6LPLODUO\WKHVWRUDJHRIWLVVXHV DW²R&KDVVKRZQWREHDSSURSULDWHDFFRUGLQJWR:RRHWDO IRUNHHSLQJWKHPHFKDQLFDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIUDEELWV·OLJDPHQWV 1HYHUWKHOHVVWKHVDPHDXWKRUUHFRPPHQGVWKDWWLVVXHVVXEPLW WHGWRIUHH]LQJWHPSHUDWXUHVDERYH²R&VKRXOGQRWEHVWRUHG IRUDQH[WHQGHGSHULRGRIWLPHGXHWRDSRWHQWLDOHQ]\PDWLFDFWLRQ DQGFHOOGLVRUGHU:HXQGHUVWDQGWKDWWKHGLIILFXOW\LQFRPSDULQJ WKHUHVXOWVDFKLHYHGWRWKRVHGHVFULEHGE\OLWHUDWXUHLVGXHWRWKH KHWHURJHQHRXVQDWXUHRIDVVD\V,QWKHRQO\VWXG\DGGUHVVLQJKX PDQ FDGDYHUV· SDWHOODU OLJDPHQWV WKH DXWKRUV XVH IUHH]LQJ WHPSHUDWXUHVRI²R&ZLWKQRVWDQGDUGL]DWLRQRIWKHERGLHVRI HYLGHQFH,QWKHVWXG\LQYROYLQJIUHH]LQJDW²R&PXVFXORWHQ GLQRXVXQLWVRIDQLPDOPRGHOVZLWKFKDUDFWHULVWLFVWKDWDUHGLVWLQFW IURPKXPDQ$FKLOOHVWHQGRQ
7KHVFLHQWLILFUHOHYDQFHRIWKLVVWXG\LVEDVHGRQWKHFUHDWLRQRI WKH+RVSLWDOGDV&OtQLFDV·7LVVXHV/LEUDU\8QLYHUVLW\RI6mR3DXOR 3URYLQJ WKH UHVXOWV GHVFULEHG LQ OLWHUDWXUH DERXW ELRPHFKDQLFDO FKDQJHVRQWHQGRQVRUOLJDPHQWVIUR]HQDW²R&ZDVUHTXLUHG VLQFHPRVWUHIHUHQFHVZHUHEDVHGRQUHVXOWVDFKLHYHGIURPIHZ VWXGLHVZLWKDQLPDOPRGHOV
:HUHJDUGWKHIUHH]LQJPHWKRGDW²R&DVDSSURSULDWHIRUVWRU LQJVRIWWLVVXHVGHVLJQHGWRWUDQVSODQWDWLRQVVLQFHLWVPHFKDQLFDO SURSHUWLHVZHUHQRWFKDQJHGGHVSLWHRIWKHVWRUDJHWLPH+RZHYHU IXUWKHUVWXGLHVDUHZDUUDQWHGDLPLQJWRDVVHVVWKHLQIOXHQFHRIWKLV PHWKRGRQWKHSURFHVVRIELRORJLFDOLQFRUSRUDWLRQRIJUDIWVUHJDUG LQJ FHOO UHSRSXODWLRQ UHYDVFXODUL]DWLRQ DQG FROODJHQ UHPRGHOLQJ SKHQRPHQDDVZHOODVRQWKHPHFKDQLVPRILQFRUSRUDWLRQRIWKH JUDIWLQWRERQHWXQQHOSRWHQWLDOO\GDPDJHGE\WKHVWUHWFKLQJUHVXOW LQJIURPLPPXQHUHVSRQVH
&21&/86,216
:H FRQFOXGHG WKDW WKH SURFHVV RI IUHH]LQJ DW ² R & GRHV QRW FDXVHFKDQJHVWRELRPHFKDQLFDOSURSHUWLHVRIWHQGRQVGHVSLWH RIWKHWLPHRIIUHH]LQJ
7DEOH²&RPSDULVRQRITXDQWLWDWLYHSDUDPHWHUVVWXGLHGEHWZHHQJURXSVJH DQGJH6WDWLVWLFDODQDO\VLVE\6WXGHQW·VQRQSDLUHGWWHVW_
&RPSDULVRQEHWZHHQJURXSV*(DQG*&
3DUDPHWHUV 6WXGHQWVWWHVW3DLUHG 6LJQLILFDQFH
SMRL p = 0.149 t = 1.570 n.s.
K p = 0.059 t = 2.157 n.s.
A p = 0.248 t = 1.235 n.s.
TMRL p = 0.9996 t = 0.0005 n.s.
¡% p = 0.900 t = 0.106 n.s.
E p = 0.918 t = 0.129 n.s.
7DEOH&RPSDULVRQRITXDQWLWDWLYHSDUDPHWHUVVWXGLHGEHWZHHQJURXSVJH DQGJF6WDWLVWLFDODQDO\VLVE\6WXGHQW·VSDLUHGWWHVW_
:KHUH 605/ 6WUHQJWK DW 0D[LPXP 5HVLVWDQFH /LPLW . 6WLIIQHVV
$ $YHUDJH DUHD 705/ 7HQVLRQ DW 0D[LPXP 5HVLVWDQFH /LPLW
¡ 5HODWLYHGHIRUPDWLRQ( HODVWLFLW\PRGXOHS VLJQLILFDQFHUDWLRQV QRQVLJQLILFDQW6RXUFH,27+&)0863
&RPSDULVRQEHWZHHQJURXSV*(DQG*(
3DUDPHWHUV 6WXGHQWVWWHVW1RQ3DLUHG 6LJQLILFDQFH
SMRL p = 0.379 t = 0.901 n.s.
K p = 0.205 t = 1.169 n.s.
A p = 0.243 t = 1.207 n.s.
TMRL p = 0.569 t = 0.581 n.s.
¡% p = 0.932 t = 0.087 n.s.
E p = 0.387 t = 0.887 n.s.
:KHUH 605/ 6WUHQJWK DW 0D[LPXP 5HVLVWDQFH /LPLW . 6WLIIQHVV
$ $YHUDJH DUHD 705/ 7HQVLRQ DW 0D[LPXP 5HVLVWDQFH /LPLW
¡ 5HODWLYHGHIRUPDWLRQ( HODVWLFLW\PRGXOHS VLJQLILFDQFHUDWLRQV QRQVLJQLILFDQW6RXUFH,27+&)0863