Curso:
Mestrado em Engenharia do Ambiente / Master in Environmental Engineering
Disciplina:
Gestão de Ambiente e Território / Environment and Territory Management
Profa
Doutora: Maria Rosário Partidário
KÁTIA VIRGÍNIA CAÑELLAS
Climate change
Territorial vulnerability. Adaptation and mitigation
1. Climate change 2. Adaptation
3. Mitigation
4. Territorial Vulnerability
Definition:
Climate change refers to:
• “a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer”. ( IPCC, 2013)
• “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods”. (Framework Convention on Climate Change - UNFCCC)
Fonte: Swart et al, 2009, p.68
Synthetic diagram on the development of studies related to Climate Change after 1980.
Causes of Climate Change
Natural causes
- Volcanic eruptions - Ocean current
- Earth orbital changes - Solar variations Human causes - Deforestation - Transports - Industrial processes - Intense agriculture
Consequences/Impacts of CC
Increase in global average surface temperature
Changes in weather patterns (frequency, intensity)
More intense precipitation (floods, …) More evaporation (drought, erosions, forest fires,…)
Consequences/Impacts of CC
Ocean acidification Endangered species
Hazard: climate-related physical events or trends or their physical impacts.
Heat Wave Wild Fire Costal Flood
Exposure: Presence of people,
ecossistems or infraestructure in places and settings that could be adversely affected.
Vulnerability: The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected.
Risk - Impacts of CC
EMISSIONS
and Land-use Change IMPACTS
Territorial vulnerability to CC
Territorial vulnerability to climate change is the degree to
which a territory is susceptible to, and unable to cope with
adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.
Is function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity and its adaptive capacity. (IPCC, 2007)
Causes of territorial vulnerability to CC
Causes of territorial vulnerability to CC
Inappropriate management of natural spaces and forest
Streams occupied
Natural systems over pressure – non-sustainable
Material damages
Vulnerable groups /areas: Children Elderly Disadvantaged groups Coastal areas Water streams Flood plains
Mitigation & Adaptation
Actions with three different aspects: 1) Spatial e time scale;
2) Costs X Benefts
3) Stakeholders and Policies.
Mitigation Adaptation
Benefit systems All systems Selected systems
Efforts scale Global Local to regional
Duration Centuries Years to centuries
Term Results Decades IImmediately / decades
Efficiency Sure in terms of reducing emissions;
Not so sure in terms of damages reduction
Generally less certain (especially where local knowledge of likely changes related to climate is weak)
Auxiliary benefíts Some times In most cases
Polluter-Payer Typically yes Not necessarily
Benefits of Payer Only part Almost completely
Administrative Scale / Execution
Mainly national governments / international negotiations
Mostly local managers / authorities, families and community organizations Sectors involved Essentially energy and transportation in
developed countries / forests and energy in underdeveloped or developing countries
Potentially all
Monitoring Relatively easy More difficult, especially where adaptation
involves preventing any damage incurred
Font: Adaptado de Bicknell et al, 2010, p.378.
COM (2009) 147 final – Adaptation strategy for 2013
Reduce vulnerability and increase resilience of the EU to the impacts of CC
Invest on an economy of energy efficiency and low carbon through green products (Green Economy)
Need to develop guidelines
White paper on Adapting to climate change:
towards a European framework for action
Climate proofing in a mitigation context:
Ensure that the activity does not increase its global GHG emissions
Climate proofing in an adaptation context:
Protect activities from the impacts of climate change
Climate proofing approach
The basis of the adaptation strategy
The water in Rotterdam comes from four sides:
Different ways in which dike reinforcement and area development can be combined depending on three types of economic conditions
The construction of artificial levees along the riverfront and lakefront, and the installation of perimeter pump stations have reshaped the landscape
A new approach to urban water
A new approach
Project Sector
Measures
Adaptation Mitigation Interactions Agricultural
Transport
Coastal
Biodiversity
Calor Excessivo Seca Aumento do nível do mar Inundações Degradação da qualidade ambiental Aumento tempestades incidência /severidade Certificação de desempenho ambiental BREEAM/LEED* Melhoria da eficiência no uso da água Relocação de residentes para habitações urbanas com certificação ambiental Preservação de áreas inundáveis Arborização urbana e proteção de espaços abertos e habitats Decentralização da geração de energias renováveis
I) Ações de Mitigação como Sinônimo de Adaptação
*BEEAM – Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Method (UK) LEED – Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (US Green Building Council)
Calor Excessivo Seca Aumento do nível do mar Inundações Degradação da qualidade ambiental Aumento tempestades incidência /severidade Promover a redução de todos os níveis de consumo Renovação de edifícios existentes LEED-EB* Uso de materiais de construção com baixo consumo de energia Estimular a redução do uso do automóvel individual Reduzir a dependência do transporte aéreo Promoção do transporte de massa para longas distâncias
II) Ações de Mitigação em que Adaptação é neutra a curto prazo mas suporta ou favorece a longo prazo
*LEED - EB - Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design for Existing Buildings
Calor Excessivo Seca Aumento do nível do mar Inundações Degradação da qualidade ambiental Aumento tempestades incidência /severidade Densidade da forma urbana (cidade compacta p/ climas quentes úmidos)
Hidroelétrica Uso de Biodiesel
( menor emissão de NOx)
III) Ações de Mitigação que dificultam a Adaptação a curto prazo mas suportam ou favorecem a longo prazo
Calor Excessivo Seca Aumento do nível do mar Inundações Degradação da qualidade ambiental Aumento tempestades incidência /severidade Coleta e armazenamento de água da chuva Relocação de residentes de áreas costeiras para edifícios convencionais existentes Filtragem passiva do ar com o uso de plantas Melhorar sistemas de alerta e planejamento de evacuação
IV) Ações de Adaptação que são neutras para a Mitigação
Calor Excessivo Seca Aumento do nível do mar Inundações Degradação da qualidade ambiental Aumento tempestades Incidência/ severidade Incremento do uso de ar condicionado Construção de novos reservatórios trazendo água de longe Relocação de residentes de áreas costeiras para novos edifícios de construção convencional Construção de diques de betão Filtragem ativa do ar através de sistemas mecânicos Desenvolver estruturas resistentes a tempestades com o uso de muros de betão ou aço
V) Ações de Adaptação que interferem na Mitigação
