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Conceptual Modelling in Disaster Planning using Agent Constructs
Kafui Monu and Carson Woo
Sauder School of Business
University of British Columbia, Canada
Monu, K., Woo, C.C. Conceptual Modelling in Disaster Planning using Agent Constructs. In Laender, A.H.F. et al. Conceptual Modeling - ER 2009. Lecture
Notes in Computer Science, Vol. 5829, Springer 2009, pp. 374-386.
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Outline
Disaster Planning
Why Conceptual Modeling?
Agent Conceptual Modeling
Case Study
Conclusion and Future Research
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Disaster Planning
A disaster is a disruption of the normal services to a particular area which causes harm
Disaster planners consider the actions that need to be taken during and after a disaster
Problems with disaster planning
People ignore the plan
The “big picture” of disasters plans is not understood
Solutions
Disaster exercise
Visualisation of the plan
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Why Conceptual Modeling?
Everyone is aware of and follows a plan that will mitigate the damage caused by a disaster
Representing the domain for understanding and analysis
That the assumptions and rationale behind the proposed actions in the plan are wrong
A modest proposal: A conceptual model that can identify the assumptions and implicit decision-making needed to carry out the plan’s actions
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Represents “human behaviour”
Derived from the agent concept in artificial intelligence
i* (Yu 1993), CAM (Monu et. al. 2005) and MibML (Zhang et. al. 2007)
i* and MibML do not directly represent the internal and external view
The internal view represents the decision-making of agents in the domain
The external view represents interactions and actions of the agent
Agent Conceptual Modeling
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CAM framework
Represents internal and external views of the agent
Coherent set of concepts
Derived using BWW ontology, systems theory and the agent literature
Structural, dynamic, interactive metamodels
A modeling construct to represent the entire decision- making process of an actor
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CAM framework relationships
Goal: Have this paper presented at ER 2009 and get to Porto Alegre, cheaply
Input: Web site information
Perceptions: Travel agent: $1400, Airline: $2200, Expedia:
$2000
Belief: Airline > Expedia > Travel Agent
Reasoning: Choose the cheapest
What is my intention?
Intention: Book tickets with travel agent
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Case Study – Objectives
Research objective: Determine if deriving the goals and reasoning in a disaster plan can provide understanding of the plan
Intend to show that the derivation of the plan’s rationale and decision-making can highlight problems and identify assumptions of the disaster plan
Case Study: Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) which consolidates information during a disaster
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Case Study - Methodology
Determine the agent information in the disaster plan
Use the relationship between the agent concepts to derive the decision-making and rationale of the disaster plan
activities
Analyse the rationale and decision-making to identify assumptions
Evaluate information in conceptual model and derivation by speaking to a creator of the disaster plan
Evaluate the usefulness of the information by speaking to a disaster simulation programmer
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Case Details
Disaster plan from a local Emergency Operations Centre
The disaster plan involves ten roles from the policy, management, operations and planning sections
This study focused on the Emergency Planning Coordinator
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Case Study –Conceptual Model
Developed Agent Conceptual Model using inputs, outputs and activities
Determined the perceptions, output/resources, and intentions
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Disaster Plan Conceptual Model
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Disaster Plan Conceptual Model
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Case Study - Goals
Intentions are used to carry out the goals of the agent
Consequences of the intentions are goals of the agent
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Case Study – Determining Goals
Intentions Consequence of
Intentions
Classification of Consequences Ensure that Planning position logs and other
necessary files are maintained
Planning records are kept.
Information on EOC activities are recorded .
. .
. . . Chair the EOC Action Planning meetings
approximately two hours before the end of each operational period
EOC knows what actions need to be taken
EOC Objectives are met
Provide technical services, such as environmental advisors and other technical specialists to all EOC sections as required
EOC sections have technical services.
EOC objectives are being met
Ensure Risk Management Officer is involved in Action Planning process
Action plan
incorporates risk.
Concerns outside of
planning will be included in the emergency response effort
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Case Study – Determining Decision-Making
Intentions are used to carry out the goals of the agent
Perceptions are part of the agent’s model of the world
Goals and perception are used by reasoning to change intentions
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Case Study – Determining Reasoning
Intentions Perception Partial Goal Condition
Ensure that Planning position logs and other necessary files are maintained
Status report, situation reports, situation unit message
Information on EOC activities are recorded
Reports are not the same as situation unit message
Ensure that the Information Officer has immediate and unlimited access to all status reports and displays
Information on EOC activities are recorded Provide technical services, such as
environmental advisors and other technical specialists to all EOC sections as required
Request for technical
assistance EOC objectives are being met
There is a request for assistance to help achieve EOC goals Ensure Risk Management Officer is
involved in Action Planning process
Action Planning Meeting.
Concerns outside of planning will be included in the emergency
response effort
Risk officer is not at the Action Planning
Meeting or is not contributing
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Evaluation
Showed goal to a disaster planner
Found the goal to be correct
Showed conceptual model, goal and reasoning to a programmer of a disaster management simulation
Found the visualisation useful
Reasoning and goal crucial to scenario building
Identified assumptions
Assumes that key individuals will always be able to contact Emergency Planning Coordinator
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Conclusion & Future Research
Disaster planning needs a way to inexpensively determine and identify hidden assumptions
Used CAM to represent a local EOC disaster plan and determine hidden goal and reasoning of a role
Limitations
Beliefs could not be derived from the model
Domain knowledge is needed
Future Research
Representing a live disaster exercise
Use CAM to develop a set of scenarios
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Thank You
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I*
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MibML
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