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The 2014 World Cup a nearest neighbour analysis

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The 20th FIFA football World Cup took place in Brazil from 12 June to 13 July 2014. The national teams of 31

countries and Brazil played 64 matches in 12 stadiums across the country.

Brazil, the largest country in both South America and Latin America is the world’s fifth largest country in terms of population and size. In 2010, the population of Brazil was 190,732,694, although this number has grown considerably since then.

The average population density, in number of people per square kilometre was 23.28 in 2011, according to the World Bank. However, the distribution of people is very uneven in Brazil.

World cup 2014 poster

Image courtesy of http://www.copa2014.gov.br/en/noticia/2014-fifa-world-cup-ambassadors-unveil-official-poster under the Licença Creative Commons Atribuição 3.0 Brasil

The stadiums are located in 12 state capitals and cover all the main regions of Brazil.

Map adapted from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_FIFA_World_Cup_venues

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Regular Random Clustered

The technique is best applied to a sample size of 30 or more locations – however, a Nearest Neighbour Analysis can be used to consider the locations of the 12 World Cup 2014 stadiums if a suitable warning as to the validity and interpretation of the result is given.

Nearest Neighbour Analysis

The Nearest Neighbour Analysis statistic is calculated from the formula:

R

n

= 2đ √

A

n

đ is the mean of the distance observed between each location and its nearest neighbour, n is the number of sampled locations – for this analysis, n = 12

and A is the area under consideration.

 Distances need to be measured accurately, as straight-line measurements in kilometres.

 The area must also be measured in square kilometres. Brazil occupies approximately half of South America, with a total area of 8,514,215 km2. This

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Student tasks

Using the map of the World Cup 2014 stadiums and Google Earth, complete the table below to calculate the nearest neighbour analysis value.

From stadium To nearest

stadium Distance (km)

Belo Horizonte Rio de Janeiro 346

Brasília Belo Horizonte 614

Cuiabá Curitiba Fortaleza Manaus Natal Porto Alegre Recife Rio de Janeiro Salvador São Paulo Total distance Mean distance

R

n

= 2đ √

A

n

The Nearest Neighbour Analysis will always generate a result between 0 and 2.15. Values of 2.15 indicate a regular pattern of the distribution, values close to a value of one indicate a random distribution and values of zero indicate a clustered distribution.

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Extension task

Calculate the Nearest Neighbour Analysis value using the distribution of the World Cup 2014 teams’ training camps.

Team City Team City

Algeria Sorocaba Greece Aracaju

Argentina Vespasiano Honduras Porto Feliz

Australia Vitória Iran Guarulhos

Belgium Mogi das

Cruzes Italy Mangaratiba

Bosnia and

Herzegovina Guarujá Ivory Coast

Águas de Lindoia

Brazil Teresópolis Japan Itu

Cameroon Vitória Mexico Santos

Chile Horizonte Belo Netherlands Janeiro Rio de

Colombia Cotia Nigeria Campinas

Costa Rica Santos Portugal Campinas

Croatia Mata de São João Russia Itu

Ecuador Viamão South Korea Foz do Iguaçu

England Rio de

Janeiro Spain Curitiba

France Ribeirão Preto Switzerland Porto Seguro Germany Santa Cruz Cabrália United States São Paulo

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From training camp

To nearest training

camp Distance (km)

Águas de Lindoia Ivory Coast

Aracaju Greece

Belo Horizonte Chile

Campinas Nigeria

Campinas Portugal

Cotia Colombia

Curitiba Spain

Foz do Iguaçu South Korea Guarujá Bosnia and Herzegovina

Guarulhos Iran

Itu Japan

Itu Russia

Maceió Ghana

Mangaratiba Italy Mata de São João Croatia

Mogi das Cruzes Belgium Porto Feliz Honduras Porto Seguro Switzerland Ribeirão Preto France Rio de Janeiro England Rio de Janeiro Netherlands Santa Cruz Cabrália Germany Santos Costa Rica

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São Paulo United States Sete Lagoas Uruguay

Sorocaba Algeria Teresópolis Brazil Vespasiano Argentina Viamão Ecuador Vitória Australia Vitória Cameroon Total distance Mean distance N = 32 Area = 8,456,510 km2

R

n

= 2đ √

A

n

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Suggested answer

Using Google Earth to measure the distances between the stadiums:

From stadium To nearest

stadium Distance (km)

Belo Horizonte Rio de Janeiro 346

Brasília Belo Horizonte 614

Cuiabá Brasília 882

Curitiba São Paulo 354

Fortaleza Natal 430

Manaus Cuiabá 1453

Natal Recife 244

Porto Alegre Cuiabá 546

Recife Natal 244

Rio de Janeiro Belo Horizonte 346

Salvador Recife 661

São Paulo Cuiabá 354

Total distance 6474 Mean distance 539.5

R

n =

A

n

R

n = 1079 √ 8,456,510 12 = 1079√0.00000141902

R

n = 1079 x 0.001191228 = 1.29 (to 2dp)

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