2.6 Risk-informed safety management
2.6.2 Principles and Practices of Risk-Informed Safety MAnagement (PPRISMA) 46
Risk-informed safety management means use of information from probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) to support decision making in various contexts. Generally, the project deals with the whole scope of risk-informed methods and application areas related to safety of nuclear power plants. The objectives are:
• To develop risk-informed decision making methods that integrate results from risk and reliability analyses with other expertise in the problem domain.
• To develop assessment methods for nuclear power plants operation and maintenance in order to enhance risk-informed ways of planning of activities and acting in situations.
• To develop methodologies in the problem areas of PSA.
• To advance skills in nuclear risk analysis, assure the competence transfer to the new generation and to participate in international co-operation.
Specific goals in 2003 Specific goals in 2003 were
• To demonstrate the Burden to Importance Ratio (BIR) -optimisation concept for need evaluation of maintenance program incl. resources for equipment of different importance in an NPP.
• To search for weaknesses in NPP maintenance and modification activities and development needs of operability verification by follow-up analysing CCF event data and compare them with operative and organisational defensive barrier models.
• To develop further the method for the analysis and evaluation of the management of fire situations from the control room operators' point of view and to test it by applying to a new fire scenario.
• To start a case study based on interviews carried out in an NKS pre-study on risk informed decision making. The case study aimed at identifying the use of PSA in decision making, identifying good ways of communication between experts taking part in the decision making process and justifying decision criteria used.
• To study classification problems appearing in the safety management context from the decision theory point of view. To carry out a Student Project.
• To demonstrate use of risk importance measures to analyse importance of functions and components of a nuclear power plant.
• To participate in the OECD/CSNI/RISK task "Framework for HRA Information Exchange." The aim of the task is to define a framework for collecting HRA-related information and using this information to obtain more credible and reproducible probabilities for human failure events in PSA
• To discuss the research problem related to the reliability assessment of computer- based systems and to develop further the method based on Bayesian networks from PSA point of view.
• To participate in and to follow-up the OECD/NEA/WGRISK and WGOE incl. WGOE task “Minor and non-identified modifications that may impact safety,” ESReDA working groups, Nordic PSA-group, ESREL/PSAM/PSA conferences, co-operation with NKS work and the Halden Reactor Project.
Safe and economically competitive production
in long-term - the objectives and means of
maintenance for achieving the strategic objectives are
defined
Maintenance classification and definition of requirements
for equipment places - classification ranks and steers the
selection of operability and maintenance requirements and selection of maintenance strategies
for equipment places
Experience based reliability centered maintenance
analysis -identification of improvement options
for maintenance and testing actions or modifications of equipment places -selection of maintenance strategies and actions for implementation based on benefit/cost analysis
Maintenance programme -maintenance strategies, actions and timing defined
for equipment places
Expert panel (some years' interval )
Analysis team (every year) Operating experience and maintenance history
Classification principles Principles of reliability centered maintenance Company objectives
Maintenance strategies, classification and analysis for management of safe and competitive production
Expert panel (some years' interval )
Figure 2.24. Maintenance strategies, classification and analysis for management of safe and competitive production.
Deliverables in 2003
• A trial application of using BIR for optimisation of condition based maintenance resource allocation on selected equipment in TF system at Loviisa NPP was performed and documented also reviewing principles of BIR.
• Workshops and analysis work meetings on weaknesses in the NPP maintenance and modification activities and missed opportunities for early detection of CCFs were held with experts from Loviisa NPP, STUK and TVO. A follow-up analysis of human originated common cause failures and their barriers of Loviisa NPP was performed.
• On the basis of the group work with Fortum the analysis method was applied to a new fire scenario. A simulator run was arranged at Loviisa plant and the task performance of one crew was assessed. A conference paper for PSAM7 was written.
• Conference presentation on risk-informed decision making were prepared and given in PSA Slottsmöte in Naantali. Task included participation in ESReDA seminar, planning of an ESReDA working group on ageing and preliminary preparations of ESReDA seminar to be held in Finland 2004. A report summarising the activities was written.
• The application on the comparison of risk importance measures with safety classes of components and functions in NPPs was carried out.
• Interim report on the case study regarding the reliability assessment of computer-based systems.
• A Finnish brainstorming session on the research topic was held with automation and PSA experts from TVO, Fortum, STUK and VTT.
• A work report on the Finnish view on HRA Information exchange. Participation in the OECD/CSNI/WGRISK meeting and in the HRA data task meeting.
• Participation and presentations in the Nordic PSA-group meeting, the JRC/ESReDA Seminar on Safety Investigations of accidents and ESReDA Working Groups and the FISA 2003.
• Participation in the OECD/NEA/CSNI/ WGOE/COMPSIS-meeting and participation and presentation in OECD/NEA/CSNI/ WGOE & SEGHOF Workshop.
• Tony Rosqvist's doctoral thesis on the use of expert judgement in the qualification of risk assessment, Eija Myötyri's MSc thesis on the measures for structural properties of systems and Ilkka Männistö's Student Project on multi-criteria classification tasks were accomplished.
3 FINANCIAL AND STATISTICAL INFORMATION
The total cost of the programme in 2003 were € 4.1 million. The major funding partners were KTM with € 1.1 million, VTT with € 1.1 million, STUK with € 0.8 million, TVO with € 0.4 million, Fortum with € 0.3 million, TEKES with € 0.2 million NKS with € 0.1 million, and other partners with € 0.2 million. The total extent of the programme in 2003 was 32 man years. The programme had 16 research projects and the administration project with partial or total KTM-funding and four research projects under the SAFIR-umbrella entirely with other funding sources. The total volume of the KTM-funded projects was € 3.6 million and the total volume of the other four projects € 0.5 million. The planned and realised financing and expenses of the KTM-funded projects have been indicated in Figures 3.1. and 3.2, respectively. The share of personnel costs was around 80 % of the yearly expenses, as illustrated in Figure 3.2.
Figure 3.1. Planned and realised financing in the KTM-funded projects of SAFIR in 2003.
Figure 3.2. Planned and realised expenses in the KTM-funded projects of SAFIR in 2003.
Figure 3.3 and 3.4 illustrates the distribution of funding and person years of all SAFIR research projects between the six research areas of SAFIR. The most “nuclear-specific”
research areas 3: Containment and process safety functions, 2: Reactor circuit and structural safety, and 1: Reactor fuel and core have the largest shares, whereas the three remaining areas with more connections and applications beyond the nuclear field, namely 4: Automation, control room and information technology, 5: Organisations and safety management and 6: Risk-informed safety management total into 21 % of the entire programme volume.
Figure 3.3. Distribution of funding in SAFIR research areas in 2003.
Figure 3.4. Distribution of person years in SAFIR research areas in 2003.
The planned and realised costs in each research area have been indicated in Figures 3.5 and 3.6, respectively.
Figure 3.5. Planned and realised cost in SAFIR in 2003.
Figure 3.6. Planned and realised volumes in SAFIR in 2003.
The total planned and realised costs and volumes of each project have been given in Table 1.1. A more detailed survey of the planned and realised costs and funding for the KTM- funded projects is given in Table 3.1.
Table 3.1. Expenses and financing of the KTM-funded projects in 2003.
18.03.2004 E.K. Puska
Expenses Financing
Volume Personnel Mat&supp Travel Ext serv Other Total 2003 KTM STUK Fortum TVO NKS EU VTT Other
pers month keuro keuro keuro keuro keuro keuro keuro keuro keuro keuro keuro keuro keuro keuro
Enhanced Methods for 45,8 462,7 0,0 9,1 6,0 9,0 486,8 100,0 70,0 0,0 0,0 4,7 0,0 310,1 0,0
Reactor Analysis (EMERALD) 47,0 489,0 0,0 20,0 5,0 11,0 525,0 100,0 70,0 0,0 30,0 5,0 0,0 320,0 0,0
High-Burnup Upgrades in Fuel 22,2 201,6 0,1 14,0 0,0 4,0 219,7 55,0 75,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 49,7 40,0
Behaviour Modelling (KORU) 20,5 172,0 0,0 34,0 0,0 4,0 210,0 55,0 75,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 40,0 40,0
Integrity and life time of reactor circuits 73,5 805,9 56,3 56,5 80,7 19,9 1019,3 280,0 264,0 60,0 50,0 26,9 0,0 294,8 43,7
(INTELI) 77,9 758,8 66,0 103,2 120,0 9,0 1057,0 280,0 264,0 60,0 50,0 25,0 0,0 300,0 78,0
Ageing of the Function of the Containment 1,1 12,5 0,0 0,5 0,0 0,0 13,0 6,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 7,0 0,0
Building (AGCONT) 1,1 13,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 13,0 6,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 7,0 0,0
Participation in the OECD NEA Task Group 0,6 7,9 0,0 1,5 0,0 0,0 9,4 2,0 3,5 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 3,9 0,0
Concrete Ageing (CONAGE) 0,6 7,9 0,0 1,6 0,0 0,0 9,5 2,0 3,5 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 4,0 0,0
WAll Response to Soft Impact (WARSI) 13,0 67,0 0,0 0,4 70,2 0,8 138,4 37,7 40,0 0,0 60,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,7
13,0 65,0 2,7 2,0 67,0 1,0 137,7 37,7 40,0 0,0 60,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Thermal hydraulic analysis of 10,5 120,6 0,0 13,7 26,0 5,4 165,8 52,0 8,5 8,5 8,5 0,0 0,0 88,3 0,0
nuclear reactors (THEA) 10,5 133,0 0,0 16,0 33,0 5,0 187,0 52,0 11,0 11,0 11,0 0,0 0,0 102,0 0,0
Severe Accidents and nuclear 16,4 204,3 0,3 8,7 99,1 1,7 314,0 80,0 4,6 9,3 118,9 0,0 0,0 101,2 0,0
containment integrity (SANCY) 17,0 183,6 6,5 21,9 101,9 1,7 315,6 80,0 5,4 10,8 120,3 0,0 0,0 99,1 0,0
Fission product gas and aerosol particle 10,5 106,7 0,3 4,9 0,1 0,0 112,0 30,0 17,0 0,0 0,0 36,0 0,0 29,0 0,0
control (FIKSU) 10,5 91,0 3,2 4,0 0,0 0,0 98,2 30,0 17,0 0,0 0,0 36,0 0,0 15,0 0,0
Archiving experiment data (KOETAR) 6,3 59,9 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,0 60,0 50,0 0,0 10,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
5,0 56,0 3,0 0,0 1,0 0,0 60,0 50,0 0,0 10,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Condensation pool experiments (POOLEX) 21,0 159,1 1,5 2,6 0,7 0,0 163,9 95,0 0,0 0,0 32,5 26,9 0,0 0,0 9,5
14,7 116,5 20,0 6,0 10,0 0,0 152,5 95,0 0,0 0,0 50,0 7,5 0,0 0,0 0,0
Interaction approach to development of 11,6 130,0 0,0 5,6 0,0 4,3 140,0 20,0 44,0 0,0 30,0 0,0 0,0 46,0 0,0
control rooms (IDEC) 11,6 123,0 0,0 10,0 7,0 0,0 140,0 20,0 44,0 0,0 30,0 0,0 0,0 46,0 0,0
Application possibilities of systematic
requirements management in the 4,6 46,2 0,2 1,7 1,6 0,0 49,7 32,1 17,6 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
improvement of nuclear safety in Finland (APSR 3,8 41,0 0,0 4,0 0,0 5,0 50,0 32,3 17,7 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Organisational culture and management 15,2 184,7 0,4 11,9 3,5 0,5 201,0 40,0 53,0 6,0 10,0 43,0 0,0 48,9 0,0
of change (CULMA) 15,8 190,0 0,7 13,0 2,0 0,0 205,7 40,0 53,0 6,0 10,0 43,7 0,0 53,0 0,0
Potential of fire spread (POTFIS) 7,4 151,5 0,4 5,0 1,6 0,0 158,5 30,0 64,0 22,0 22,0 0,0 0,0 20,5 0,0
9,5 122,0 3,0 14,0 13,0 6,0 158,0 30,0 64,0 22,0 22,0 0,0 0,0 20,0 0,0
Principles and practices of risk-informed 21,8 228,5 0,2 12,5 0,0 3,7 245,0 85,0 79,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 81,0 0,0
safety management (PPRISMA) 21,8 235,5 1,1 21,0 0,0 1,0 258,6 85,0 79,0 0,0 0,0 13,5 0,0 81,0 0,0
SAFIR administration and information 8,5 95,8 0,0 2,4 0,3 0,0 98,4 98,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
2002-2003 (SAHA) 9,0 102,0 0,0 4,7 10,0 0,0 116,7 115,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1,7 0,0 0,0
Total 290,0 3045,2 59,8 150,9 289,7 49,3 3592,8 1093,2 740,2 115,8 331,8 137,5 0,0 1080,5 93,8
Total (planned) 299,8 2899,3 106,2 275,4 369,9 43,7 3694,2 1110,0 743,6 119,8 383,3 130,7 1,7 1087,1 118,0
Note 1: In-kind contributions of Fortum in CULMA,IDEC and PPRISMA Note 2: In-kind contribution of TVO in PPRISMA
Note 3: Person volume includes work indicated as external services in INTELI and WARSI Note 4: In SAHA 7.1 k€ of KTM-funding for the programme brochure was transferred to year 2004.
The programme produced 139 publications in 2003. Major part of the publications consisted of conference papers and extensive research institute reports. The number of scientific publications as well as the total number of publications varied greatly between the projects, as indicated in Table 3.2. The average number of publications was 4.5 per person year, and the average number of scientific publications was 0,05 per person year.
The number of scientific publications is low primarily for two reasons: 1) during the first year of the new programme the research is not ‘ripe’ for scientific publication, especially in the experimental projects and 2) part of the projects have deliberately aimed at publication of the results as research institute reports.
Table 3.2. Publications in the SAFIR projects in 2003.
Project Volume pers. year
Scientific Conference papers
Res. inst.
reports
Others Total
EMERALD 4,36 1 12 5 1 19
KORU 2,11 0 0 0 1 1
INTELI 7 1 10 12 0 23
AGCONT 0,1 0 0 1 0 1
CONAGE 0,07 0 0 0 0 0
CONTECH 0,7 0 0 4 0 4
WARSI 1,2 0 0 2 0 2
TIFANY 1,53 0 0 10 0 10
THEA 1 0 2 1 0 3
SANCY 1,56 0 0 3 1 4
FIKSU 1 0 2 4 0 6
AMY 1,9 0 1 4 1 6
OTUS 0,41 0 0 2 0 2
KOETAR 0,6 0 0 1 0 1
POOLEX 2 0 0 1 4 5
IDEC 1,1 0 4 3 0 7
APSREM 0,44 0 0 1 0 1
CULMA 1,45 1 2 1 2 6
POTFIS 0,7 3 7 3 5 18
PPRISMA 2,07 1 5 3 8 17
SAHA 0,81 0 0 2 1 3
TOTAL 32 7 45 63 24 139
In the projects of SAFIR programme during the first year one Doctoral degree was obtained in the PPRISMA project and altogether four Master degrees that were obtained in the AMY, POOLEX, IDEC, and PPRISMA projects.
4 ORGANISATION AND INFORMATION
The programme management consists of the steering group and the six reference groups.
During the year 2003 the steering group had six meetings and the reference groups four meetings each. Additionally, the reference groups performed a two-stage evaluation process with one extra meeting for the project proposals for the year 2004. The ad hoc groups that have a vital role in some research areas with many projects were formed by the project managers. The ad hoc groups met upon the needs of the specific project. Some groups had several meetings during the year and some groups worked only by email. All these groups were regularly informed using standard progress reports. The list of persons involved in the steering and reference groups, as well as programme staff and their main duties are presented in Appendix 6. Figure 4.1 illustrates the structure of the SAFIR programme with the research projects forming the hot red core of the programme, the six reference groups and the various ad hoc groups having the principal responsibility of scientific guidance and surveillance of the various research projects, as depicted with the yellow layer encircling the red core. The steering group, depicted as the blue layer, administrates the entire research programme thus keeping the SAFIR ‘jewel’ together.
Figure 4.1 The three-layer structure of SAFIR programme with projects (red), reference and ad hoc groups (yellow) and steering group (blue).
The information on the research performed in SAFIR has been communicated formally via the quarterly progress reports, the annual report of the programme and the www-pages of the programme. The detailed scientific results have been published as articles in scientific journals, conference papers, and separate research reports.
In addition to conducting the actual research according to the yearly plans, SAFIR has functioned as an efficient network of all ‘players’ in the nuclear energy field in Finland and as an open discussion forum for participation in international projects, allocation of resources and in planning of new projects.
5 REFERENCES
1 Kansallinen ydinvoimalaitosten turvallisuustutkimus 2003-2006, ehdotus uuden tutki- musohjelman sisällöksi ja organisoinniksi. Kauppa- ja teollisuusministeriö. Työryhmä- ja toimikuntaraportteja 13/2002, SAFIR suunnitteluryhmä. ( Nuclear Power Plant Safety Research 1999-2002, A proposal for the content and organisation of the new research programme. Ministry of Trade and Industry, Finland, Ad hoc committee reports 13/2002, SAFIR Working Group, in Finnish.)
2 Puska, E.K.; SAFIR, The Finnish Research Programme on Nuclear Power Plant Safety, Annual Plan 2003. Espoo: VTT Processes Project Report PRO1/P7007/03, 26 p. + App.
102 p.
APPENDIX 1
PROJECT PROGRESS REPORTS 4/2003
APPENDIX 2
PUBLICATIONS OF THE PROJECTS IN 2003
APPENDIX 3
INTERNATIONAL CO-OPERATION IN 2003
APPENDIX 4
INTERNATIONAL TRAVELS IN 2003
APPENDIX 5
ACADEMIC DEGREES AWARDED IN 2003
APPENDIX 6