CHAPTER 4: DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS
In this study we used geodetic data from fifteen (15) permanent GNSS stations, to measure and interpret the co- and post-seismic crustal deformation due to four (4) strong seismic events in the central Ionian Islands, during the period 2007-2018. The earthquakes occurred on 26 January 2014 and 3 February 2014, on Cephalonia Island, on 17 November 2015, on Lefkada Island and offshore Zakynthos Island on 25 October 2018.
We used daily data, provided by the network administrators in the form of RINEX files (version 2.11) which were processed using Bernese 5.2 software (Dach et al. 2015) following the double-difference method. Daily position observations were obtained for each station in IGb08 Cartesian coordinates (X, Y, Z). The positions were then converted into EGSA 1987 system (Greek projection system). We used these data to a) observe the time series for changes due to seismic motions (offsets) and b) monitor changes in the horizontal distance (baselines) between several stations, in relation to time
Our conclusions are:
• The only station in which we observe seismic offset caused by the January 26 2014, Cephalonia event, is VLSM station (Tab. 3, Fig. 29), which is located only 17 km away from the hypocenter (Tab.5). The station moved 13.34mm SSW and 3.77±2.68 mm downwards. ZAKY station also shows offset off a few mm in the East-West direction (3.59±2.3 mm) but with considerable error.
• VLSM is also in the case of February 03 2014, Cephalonia event the only station in which we observe seismic offset (Tab. 3, Fig. 30). It is located 19 km away from the hypocenter (Tab. 5).The station moved 15.31 mm to the SSW. In vertical component the calculated offset shows high error so the result isn’t considered reliable.
• The seismic offsets with the highest values and the lowest errors in the case of November 17 2015, Lefkada event, are observed in stations PONT and SPAN on Lefkada Island which are located 15km and 20km away from the hypocenter, respectively (Tab. 5). PONT station moved 429. 04 mm to the SW in the horizontal direction (Tab. 3, Fig 33). Vertically the station moved downwards (57.64±3.79mm,
CHAPTER 4: DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS
Tab. 3, Fig 34). SPAN, moved 95.03 mm to the SSW after the earthquake (Tab. 3, Fig. 33). This station exhibits downward motion but with a significant error. Offsets of a few mm with low error values are also observed in stations located on Cephalonia Island (KARA, SKAL, VLSM; Tab. 3, Fig. 32-34), although they are located more than 50 km away from the hypocenter.
• In the case of October 25, 2018 Zakynthos event, the highest offset values with the lowest error, are observed in ZAKY station which is located 50 km away from the hypocentre (Tab 5). The station moved 49.20mm to the SW in the horizontal direction (Tab. 4, Fig 35). The station moved slightly downwards (4.67±3.39mm, Tab. 4). The other two stations (SISS and VLSM) which are located far from the epicentre of the earthquake, show no deformation in horizontal as well as in vertical direction.
•
We notice that the proximity of the stations to the hypocenter of the earthquakes is correlated to the value of the observed offset. The highest offset values are observed in most cases in the stations closest to each seismic event.•
We also notice that the magnitude of the earthquake is also positive correlated to the value of the observed offset. The highest offsets are observed after the 2015 November event (M6.5). Earthquakes with high magnitudes can cause deformation even in stations located quite far from their hypocenters (e.g Lefkada and Zakynthos earthquakes)• We measured baseline shortening (negative baseline change rate) between some stations and baseline lengthening (positive baseline change rate) between other stations by a few mm/yr.
• Studying the baseline rate change between stations VLSM (located on Cephalonia) and PONT (located on south Lefkada), before and after Cephalonia, 2014 earthquakes, we observe that in both periods the distance between them increases by a few mm/yr.
• Studying the baseline rate change, before the Lefkada, 2015 earthquake, we notice that the horizontal distance between PONT-VLSM and PONT-KARA (Lefkada- Cephalonia) increases with almost the same rate (5-6 mm/yr; Tab. 7). On the contrary, during the same period the distance between PONT-AGRI and PONT-KTCH (Lefkada-Akarnania) shortens (note that the results for these pairs are questionable because of the low R2 value).
CHAPTER 4: DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS
• Studying the baseline rate change, before and after Zakynthos, 2018 earthquake, we calculate very low baseline rate change values with very low R2, which indicates that there is practically no deformation to be detected between these two pairs of stations. This is to be expected taking into consideration that both studied stations are located much further from the seismic fault than the ones in the previous cases.
• The baseline between stations SPAN-PONT (Lefkada stations belonging to NOA) shortens at a constant rate of -2.48 mm/yr before the occurrence of the 2015 Lefkada event. We interpret this behavior as due to pre-seismic deformation, related to fault “locking” before the earthquake rupture.
• We also note that a few days (about 15) after the seismic events of Lefkada and Zakynthos, the baseline rate between all studied pairs of stations, changes abruptly before going back to lower values. This is a non-linear behavior characterizing the first days of the post-seismic period.
• The post-seismic change of the baseline rate is marked by a non-linear behavior of the deformation in contrast to the linear behavior before the earthquake nucleation (pre-seismic period).
Future work
One of the future goals of this research can be the detection of the onset of pre-seismic deformation (i.e. negative change in baseline rate between two GNSS stations) in longer time series. It would also be very useful to compare the results of this study, with those in similar cases in other areas e.g. the Aegean region.
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