3.1.1 Climate Policy Measures Analysis by SFT 2006-2007 The Norwegian State Pollution Control Authority's (SFT2
It was estimated that in 2020 around 2% of private cars could be replaced by Electric vehicles, by gradual phasing in with 2% of new car sales from 2010 and 5% of new car sales from 2015 and up to 2020. This would result in more than 70,000 electrical vehicles on Norwegian roads in 2020. In the calculations it was assumed that a reduction in emissions from heavy duty vehicles, would be achieved by replacing conventional buses with zero emission buses. This would provide a reduction of 3%
of the emissions from heavy duty vehicles. Zero emission buses were defined as trolley buses, or buses using hydrogen as fuel in fuel cells or as fuel in internal combustion engines.
) analysis of Climate Policy measures from 2006/2007, studied a measure aimed at replacing petrol and diesel cars with Electric vehicles. The total reduction in emissions from the measure was calculated to 7,519 tonnes of CO2 equivalents in 2010 and 235,577 tonnes of CO2
equivalents in 2020 (SFT 2007).
3.1.2 White paper on Climate Policy and Climate Policy Settlement in 2007
The first white paper on Climate Policy and the first Climate Policy Settlement in the Norwegian Parliament came in 2007. These resulted in establishment of a goal that greenhouse gas emissions in the Norwegian transport sector should be reduced by 2.5-4 million tonnes in relation to the reference pathway (what the development would have been without a new policy). This target was derived from the total reduction in emissions that should be achieved domestically; 12-14 million tonnes, and the percentage the transport sector has of the total emissions in Norway. Before the White Paper was written, the Norwegian Climate and Pollution Agency (KLIF,
2 The State Pollution Control Agency in 2010 changed name to the Climate and Pollution Agency, and from 1. juli 2013 to the Norwegian Environment Agency.
now the Norwegian Environment Agency) produced analyses of measures of how much emissions in different sectors in Norway can be reduced by, and at what cost.
3.1.3 Norwegian target of 120 g/km in 2012
In October 2007, the government adopted a target that on average new passenger vehicles would not emit more CO2 than 120 g/km in 2012 (see Annex VI). They have attempted to steer towards this target by adjusting the CO2 element in the registration tax, resulting in higher taxes on high emitters. The target was adopted at the time when the EU target was that the average emissions in 2012 would be 130 g/km from the vehicle itself (a further 10 g/km less due to better tyres, on board tyre pressure monitoring systems, biofuels etc). The Norwegian target was more stringent than that of the EU as it was only related to emissions from the vehicle.
The EU adopted a gradual phasing in of the 130 g/km target, so full phase-in would not be achieved until 2015. The Norwegian target was not changed and was not achieved either. On average, in 2012, emissions for new passenger vehicles amounted to 130 g/km.
3.1.4 Action plan for electrification of road transport 2009 The resource group for electrification of road transport was appointed after an initiative from the energy companies, and consisted of a selection of private and public stakeholders. The energy companies pressed for Norway to establish a target for electrification of road transport. On behalf of the Ministry of Transport, the energy companies organised a resource group. In 2009, it presented a plan of action for the electrification of road transport, which assumed that it would be possible to reach a 10% share for Electric vehicles and Plug-in Hybrids in the passenger car fleet in 2020. This would be attained through a continuation and strengthening of the use of existing measures and some new ones. Among other things, an extra grant of NOK 3,750 € per vehicle was proposed. This was however not adopted by the government.
3.1.5 Klimakur report 2008-2010
The Klimakur (Climate Cure) project was established by the government through a joint mission from the concerned ministries for the underlying agencies: The Norwegian Public Roads Administration, the Norwegian Climate and Pollution Agency (the Norwegian Pollution Control Authority at that time), the Norwegian Maritime Authority, the Norwegian National Rail Administration, the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, Avinor (the Norwegian Civil Aviation Administration) and Statistics Norway. Klimakur assessed the potential for national emission reductions in all the sectors. The work within the transport sector was led by the Norwegian Public Roads Administration. The final report and sub-reports were published in February 2010 (Klimakur 2010). Klimakur (Figenbaum 2010) described the following measures to reduce average emissions from new passenger cars.
• Efficiency improvements of vehicles with internal combustion engines
• Better tyres
• Electrification
• Hydrogen.
The electrification measure imply that Electric vehicles and Plug-in Hybrids will replace internal combustion engine vehicles. In this context, electricity is calculated as zero emissions (electricity production is a part of the EU European Trading Scheme (ETS) and anyway belongs to another sector). Thus, each Electric vehicle that replaces a vehicle with an internal combustion engine, reduces CO2 emissions by 100%. Rechargeable hybrids were assumed to provide a reduction in emissions of 44- 68% depending on type of vehicle. It was estimated that Electric vehicles could make up approx. 7% of the new vehicle market and Plug-in Hybrids approx. 8% of the vehicle market in Norway by 2020 (a higher expected percentage than in the EU).
The reduction in emissions in 2020 calculated to reach approx. 200,000 tonnes of CO2 equivalents. It was assumed that there would in parallel be a significant improvement in the efficiency of petrol and diesel vehicles, something that would reduce the potential for emission reductions with Electric vehicles.
3.1.6 White paper on climate and Climate Policy settlement 2012 The work with the Klimakur project was part of the basis for drawing up the White Paper on Climate Policy published in 2012. The White Paper (Miljøvern-
departementet 2012) established a goal that the average CO2 emissions from new passenger cars would be reduced to 85 g/km by 2020. The Climate Policy Settlement in the Norwegian Parliament from June 2012 maintained this goal (Klimaforliket 2012). The White Paper that was adopted by the Settlement, states the following with regard to the 85 gram target:
«Has as its goal that in 2020, the average emissions from new private vehicles will not exceed an average of 85 g of CO2/km.».
In order to achieve this goal, the Climate Report describes a number of measures and incentives that should be implemented:
• «Continue to use vehicle taxes to contribute to the shift to a greener and more climate- friendly vehicle fleet.
• Evaluate gradually phasing in requirements for environmental properties and CO2
emissions for taxis that can use bus lanes.
• Contribute to the development of infrastructure for electrification and alternative fuels, among other things, through Transnova.
• Be a promoter of international efforts for the standardisation of solutions, and the harmonisation of regulations, for zero and low-emission vehicles.
• Continue to be internationally at the forefront in facilitating the use of electric and hydrogen vehicles.
• Provide plug-in hybrids with access to parking with charging facilities (charge stations for EVs).
• Establish better systems for monitoring and controlling the development of traffic in the bus lanes so that, as far as possible, Electric vehicles and hydrogen cars can have access without this delaying public transport.
• Develop a plan for extended environmental information when selling new vehicles, including information about fuel costs and fiscal disadvantages for vehicles with high emissions, as well as strengthened controls of environment and energy labelling when selling new vehicles.»
The Climate Policy Settlement contains the aforementioned points with the following additions:
• «Zero-emission vehicles, plug-in hybrids and other environmentally-friendly vehicles shall fare better (in the tax/incentive system) than corresponding vehicles using fossil fuel.
Electric vehicles and hydrogen incentives will be frozen until the next parliamentary term (i.e. at the end of 2017), if the number of vehicles does not exceed 50,000 before that time.
• Other incentives to promote zero-emission vehicles such as exemptions from road tolls and ferry fees, access to bus lanes and free parking must be seen in the context of traffic development in the major cities. The views of local authorities must weigh heavily in decisions regarding these incentives.
• Plug-in hybrids shall fare better than corresponding vehicles using fossil fuel»
In addition, there are some points in the Climate Report that may indirectly affect the 85 gram target:
• «Aim at having public transport, cycling and walking accommodate the growth in passenger traffic in the metropolitan areas.
• Establish Transnova as a permanent organisation and gradually increase funding.
• Develop routines for better public procurement by updating and developing the set of criteria used by DIFI (Agency for Public Management and eGovernment), for environmentally conscious procurement of vehicles and taxi-services in the public sector. »
Figenbaum et al (2013) has calculated to what extent the 85 g target can be attained in different scenarios, with different degrees of commitment to Electric vehicles and Plug-In hybrids, and which tax regimes may be necessary. Their conclusion is that the 85 gram target can be attained in scenarios where one assumes that either Electric vehicles or Plug-In hybrids or both technologies make an impact on the market and gain significant market shares. In the scenario where none of these technologies make an impact, it will be very difficult and costly to reach the target, as this would imply a unification of the of the market where the average vehicle will have to be small and diesel-powered. Further restructuring of the vehicle registration tax to encourage consumers to buy vehicles with low CO2 emissions, will be necessary in all the scenarios. The consequences for the state and consumers will be relatively small because technological development, and EU requirements for reducing average emissions for vehicles, will contribute to making vehicles with low emissions
available on the market, so that consumers can avoid increases in charges by selecting vehicles with the lowest emissions.