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THE DROUGHT OF THE SUMMER OF 2012
IN OLTENIA - CLIMATIC RISK PHENOMENON.
SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACT
MARINICĂ ANDREEA FLORIANA,1MARINICĂ I. 2
ABSTRACT.–The Drought of the summer of 2012 in Oltenia - Climatic Risk Phenomenon. Social and Economic Impact. The summer of 2012 has been the fourth excessively droughty and hot summer registered in Oltenia since the year 2000. Although it came after an episode of severe winter registered in the interval 24th of January-15th of February and after a rainy spring which helped restoring the water reserve in the soil, the drought of summer which had a space-time extension of 81.2% was accompanied by long intervals of extremely hot weather- with canicular days and scorching heat days which were persistent and intense, leading to a high degree of crop damage, a major impact on the production and socio-economic life. As a phenomenon of climatic risk, the drought in the summer of 2012 marked a new climatic oscillation in the South of the country- July 2012 has been the warmest month in the last 52 years- and an important analysis in a series of extended studies on the variability of the climate in the South-West of Romania, the region called Oltenia.
Keywords: drought, scorching heat, canicular days, excessively hot weather.
1. INTRODUCTION
As a consequence of global warming, in Oltenia the frequency of warm summers, drought, dryness and aridity phenomena has increased. After the ex-ceedingly warm and droughty summer of 2007, temperature values of above 40.0 °C, in Oltenia, as well as in Romania were not registered in the interval 2008-2011, the summer of 2012 being the first after four years in which maximum temperature values exceeding 40.0 °C were registered on extended areas coupled with long-lasting heat waves. In consequence, the phenomena of drought and dryness were intense causing significant damages at the level of the entire country and in agriculture. We will further analyze the climatic specificity of the summer of 2012. This paper comes as a continuation in the series of extended studies on the variability of climate in South-Western Romania (Marinică, 2006, Bogdan, Marinică, 2007).
2. MATERIALS AND METHODS
For this research the data of CMR (Regional Meteorological Centre) Oltenia Craiova and ANM (National Administration of Meteorology) Bucharest
1
Klimacampus, Hamburg, Germany E-mail: marinica.andreea@gmail.com
2
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archives were used as well as satellite and radar images from the forecasting centre of Craiova. The analysis of the temperature and precipitation data was done using the Hellmann Criterion.
3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
3.1. Climatic characteristics of June 2012
Air temperature regime in June 2012. The monthly maximum varied between 32.2°C in Voineasa and 38.2°C in Bechet, the maximum monthly average for the entire region being 34.4°C. Canicular days (days with maximum temperature > 35°C) were registered in the Southern half of the region and their number ranged from 1 in Slatina and Rm. Vâlcea to 5 in Calafat.
Table 1. Air temperature regime in June 2012
Meteorological
Station Hm NVI MVI ∆=M-N CrH
TMin TMax Nr de zile cu Tmax
°C Data °C Data ≥35°C ≥32°C
Dr. Tr. Severin 77 20.7 23.9 3.2 W 11.2 7 36.3 22 3 11
Calafat 66 21.0 24.3 3.3 W 12.5 7 37.4 22 5 14
Bechet 65 21.3 23.3 2.0 W 10 7 38.2 22 4 13
Băileşti 56 21.1 25.0 3.9 W 8.3 7 36.5 22 3 11
Caracal 112 20.8 23.6 2.8 W 10.6 7 36.8 22 2 10
Craiova 190 20.6 23.3 2.7 W 10 7 36.2 22 2 8
Slatina 165 20.5 22.8 2.3 W 9.9 7 35.4 22 1 5
Bâcleş 309 19.0 22.1 3.1 W 9.9 7 33.2 22 3
Tg. Logreşti 262 18.8 21.1 2.3 W 7.5 7 33.8 22 4
Drăgășani 280 19.4 23.1 3.7 W 11.2 2 34.9 22 5
Apa Neagră 250 16.6 22.6 6.0 VW 6.8 7;27 34.6 22 5
Tg. Jiu 210 19.4 22.6 3.2 W 9.6 7 34.1 22 5
Polovragi 546 17.7 21.2 3.5 W 8.5 7 32.2 22 1
Rm. Vâlcea 243 19.0 22.4 3.4 W 10.4 7 35.3 22 1 8
Voineasa 587 15.3 18.4 3.1 W 6.4 3 32.4 22 2
Parâng 1585 10.5 14.0 3.5 W 2 6 23.8 22
Mean Oltenia 18.9 22.1 3.2 W 9.1 34.4 3 7
(Source: Processed data from the CMR Oltenia archive)
The scorching heat days (days with maximum temperature > 32°C) were registered in the entire region excepting the sub-mountainous area, their number ranging from 1 in the sub-Carpathian depressions area in Polovragi and 14 in Calafat.
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Apa Neagră area where it was very hot (Table 1); the 3.2°C deviation of the general average from the normal confirming the hot month classification for the entire region.
Table 2. Quantities of precipitation registered during the summer of 2012 (Σ), in comparison to the normal values and the pluviometric time type
according to Hellmann’s Criterion (HC)
Meteorological
Station Hm
June 2012 July 2012
ΣVI N Δ% HC ΣVII N Δ% HC
Dr. Tr. Severin 77 25.2 72.5 -65.2 ED 77.2 49.3 56.6 ED
Calafat 66 9.2 65.6 -86.0 ED 46.6 45.6 2.2 N
Bechet 65 57.8 62.3 -7.2 N 17.6 46.6 -62.2 ED
Băileşti 56 3.0 66.5 -95.5 ED 15.1 45.0 -66.4 ED
Caracal 112 16.4 73.7 -77.7 ED 13.2 53.8 -75.5 ED
Craiova 190 7.2 71.2 -89.9 ED 26.0 51.4 -49.4 VD
Slatina 165 34.4 80.6 -57.3 ED 20.6 57.5 -64.2 ED
Bâcleş 309 53.8 72.0 -25.3 D 92.9 47.1 97.2 ED Tg. Logreşti 262 35.8 72.3 -50.5 ED 29.4 49.5 -40.6 VD Drăgăşani 280 10.6 87.6 -87.9 ED 27.0 51.6 -47.7 VD Apa Neagră 250 50.3 99.2 -49.3 VD 156.8 72.7 115.7 ED
Tg. Jiu 210 25.2 93.0 -72.9 ED 76.4 61.9 23.4 R
Polovragi 546 27.0 112.3 -76.0 ED 51.0 88.9 -42.6 VD
Rm. Vâlcea 243 119.2 86.9 37.2 VR 37.8 98.0 -61.4 ED
Voineasa 573 75.8 106.7 -29.0 D 58.3 88.6 -34.2 VD
Parâng 1585 57.6 124.1 -53.6 ED 95.4 132.1 -27.8 D
Mean Oltenia - 38.0 84.2 -55.4 ED 52.6 65.0 -19.1 RD
Meteorological
Station Hm
August 2012 Summer 2012
ΣVIII N Δ% CH ΣD N Δ% CH
Dr. Tr. Severin 77 1.8 38.2 -95.3 ED 104.2 160.0 -34.9 VD
Calafat 66 0.0 35.6 -100 ED 55.8 146.8 -62.0 ED
Bechet 65 20.2 37.9 -46.7 VD 95.6 146.8 -34.9 VD
Băileşti 56 29.9 39.0 -23.3 D 48.0 150.5 -68.1 ED
Caracal 112 14.4 39.9 -63.9 ED 44.0 167.4 -73.7 ED
Craiova 190 14.0 42.1 -66.7 ED 47.2 164.7 -71.3 ED
Slatina 165 8.2 46.8 -82.5 ED 63.2 184.9 -65.8 ED
Bâcleş 309 48.7 33.4 45.8 VR 195.4 152.5 28.1 VR Tg. Logreşti 262 18.9 43.6 -56.7 ED 84.1 165.4 -49.2 ED Drăgăşani 280 30.2 46.4 -34.9 VD 67.8 185.6 -63.5 ED Apa Neagră 250 0.2 60.1 -99.7 ED 207.3 232.0 -10.6 RD
Tg. Jiu 210 8.2 64.3 -87.2 ED 109.8 219.2 -49.9 ED
Polovragi 546 14.6 76.5 -80.9 ED 92.6 277.7 -66.7 ED
Rm. Vâlcea 243 44.4 69.4 -36.0 VD 201.4 254.3 -20.8 D
Voineasa 573 55.1 72.8 -24.3 D 189.2 268.1 -29.4 VD
Parâng 1585 83.4 90.6 -7.9 N 236.4 346.8 -31.8 VD
Mean Oltenia 24.5 52.3 -53.1 ED 115.1 201.4 -42.8 VD
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Precipitation regime of June 2012. The monthly precipitation values in June were comprised between 3.0 mmin the Oltenia Plain in Băilești and 119.2 mm in Rm. Vâlcea in the Olt corridor.
The deviations from the multi-annual averages fell between -95.5% in Băilești and 37.2% (the only positive deviation) in Rm. Vâlcea.
According to the Hellmann Criterion the month was exceedingly droughty in most of the region excepting some restricted areas: in Bechet it was a normal month, in Voineasa and Bâcleș it was a droughty month while in Rm. Vâlcea it was a very rainy month (Table 2). The drought started in the very beginning of June, the quantitatively insignificant rainfall being associated with high average temperatures and daily maxima from the 28th of May. The intensity of the drought reached its peak in the Oltenia Plain where the lowest quantities of precipitation were registered: 9.2 mm in Calafat, 7.2 mm in Craiova and 3.0 mm in Băilești.
3.2. Climatic characteristics of July 2012
Air temperature regime in July 2012. The monthly maxima went from 35.3°C in Voineasa to 41.6°C in Calafat, their average for the entire region being 37.9°C.
Canicular days were registered in the entire region, their number ranging from 1 in Voineasa to 20 in Caracal and the average for the entire region being 13. In the Oltenia Plain, this number ranged from 16 to 20. The scorching heat days were registered in the entire region including the sub-mountainous area; their number ranged from 10 in Voineasa to 29 in Caracal, the average for the entire region being 23.
Fig. 1.Air temperature variation (daily minimum temperature values, daily average temperature values and daily maximum temperature values) in July 2012.(Source:
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The monthly averages went from 20.7°C in Voineasa to 28.4°C in the Oltenia Plain in Băilești, the general mean for the entire region being 25.6°C- mak-ing July 2012 the hottest month of the summer of 2012 and also the highest average temperature for a month in the last 52 years of meteorological obser-vations. The monthly average for the entire country was 23.7°C - the highest mean not only in the last 12 years (Table 2), but even in the last 52. The deviations of the monthly averages from the multi-annual values were comprised between 3.6°C in Voineasa and 5.7°C in Apa Neagră, which, according to Hellmann Criterion, renders July 2012 to be a hot month (H) in most of the region, excepting the areas Băilești, Caracal, Drăgășani, Apa Neagră, Polovragi, Rm. Vâlcea and Parâng where it was very hot (Table 3). In addition, the deviation of the general average from the normal was 4.7°C confirming the previous classification.
Table 3. Air temperature regime in July 2012
Meteorological
Station Hm NVII MVII ∆=M-N CrH
MinT MaxT
No. of days with maxT °C Date °C Date ≥35°C ≥32°C Dr. Tr. Severin 77 23.0 27.1 4.1 W 16.1 19 39.3 15;21 16 25
Calafat 66 23.2 27.5 4.3 W 15.4 20 41.6 15 16 26
Bechet 65 23.0 26.8 3.8 W 12.4 19 40.7 15 18 28
Băileşti 56 22.8 28.4 5.6 VW 12.0 19 40.6 21 19 27
Caracal 112 22.9 27.9 5.0 VW 15.3 19 40.7 15 20 29
Craiova 190 22.3 27.1 4.8 W 15.3 19 39.1 15 19 27
Slatina 165 22.0 26.9 4.9 W 14.1 20 39.0 15 17 27
Bâcleş 309 21.3 25.6 4.3 W 13.2 18 37.5 21 5 15
Tg. Logreşti 262 20.7 24.4 3.7 W 8.0 18 36.9 21 7 19
Drăgăşani 280 21.7 27.0 5.3 VW 16.1 17 38.3 15 15 26
Apa Neagră 250 20.5 26.2 5.7 VW 7.0 17;18 38.4 21 10 24
Tg. Jiu 210 21.3 25.9 4.6 W 13.0 19 38.2 21 9 25
Polovragi 546 19.7 24.8 5.1 VW 11.4 17 35.6 15 2 14
Rm. Vâlcea 243 21.2 26.3 5.1 VW 14.8 17 37.8 15 18 29
Voineasa 587 17.1 20.7 3.6 W 8.0 18;19 35.3 15 1 10
Parâng 1585 12.5 17.6 5.1 VW 6.1 17 26.8 10;15
Mean Oltenia 21.0 25.6 4.7 W 12.4 37.9 12.8 23
(Source: Processed data from the CMR Oltenia archive)
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July, 28-30th of July when the thermal maxima often exceeded 35°C and even 40°C (Fig. 2).
Precipitation regime of July 2012. The monthly precipitation values registered in July 2012 were comprised between 13.2 mm in Caracal in the Romanatilor Plain and 156.8 mm in Apa Neagră in the Sub-Carpathian Depression.
The deviations of these quantities from the multi-annual average were comprised between -60.2 mm in Rm. Vâlcea and +84.1 mm in Apa Neagră, and the percentage deviation between -75.5% in Caracal and +115.7% in Apa Neagră, leading to a pluviometric time type classification ranging from exceedingly droughty to exceedingly rainy (Table 2).
The general average of precipitation calculated for the entire region was 52.6 mm, and its percentage deviation from the normal was -19.1% leading to a general little droughty classification for the entire region. This classification based on the general average is not so significant since the drought was intense on extended areas in the Oltenia Plain, the Getic Piedmont, in the hilly area (Drăgășani, Tg. Logrești, Polovragi, Rm. Vâlcea, Voineasa) and on restricted areas, due to the local conditions and the penetration of cloud cells associated with atmospheric fronts, which evolved in the North of the Carpathians, July was exceedingly rainy (Dr. Tr. Severin, Bâcleș, Apa Neagră) or rainy (Tg. Jiu) (Table 2).
3.3. Climatic characteristics of August 2012
Air temperature regime in August 2012. The monthly maxima went from 36.7°C in Voineasa to 41.2°C in Calafat and Bechet, and their average for the entire region was 38.5°C. The value of 41.2°C registered in Calafat and Bechet is the absolute thermal maximum of August for these meteorological stations, and a climatic record for the entire region. This situation was also encountered in Transylvania, when the temperatures of August 25th were absolute maxima for many meteorological stations in the area. Absolute maxima were also the values 40.8°C in Dr. Tr. Severin, 40.7°C in Rm. Vâlcea, 40.5°C in Băilești and Caracal, 39.6°C in Slatina, 39.8°C in Craiova, 38.7°C in Drăgășani, 37.7°C in Tg. Logrești, 36.7°C in Voineasa, 36.5°C in Polovragi, 28.0°C in Parâng in the mountain area, all being climatic records for these stations, and the highest temperature values in the last 52 years. Canicular days were registered in the entire region and their number ranged from 3 in Voineasa to 15 in Calafat, their average for the whole Oltenia being 10.
Scorching heat days were registered in the entire region including in the sub-mountainous area, their number varying between 9 in Voineasa and 23 in Calafat, and their average for Oltenia being 16.
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time type classification of hot month (H) in most of the region (Table 4). The monthly air temperature average, calculated for the entire region was 23.6°C, its deviation from the multi-annual average for the entire region was 3.1°C, confirming the general classification of hot month (H). Compared to July, the monthly mean was lower in August, as a consequence of the long cooling intervals. (Table 4).
Table 4. Air temperature regime in August 2012
Meteorological
Station Hm NVIII MVIII ∆=M-N CrH MinT MaxT
No.of days with maxT
°C Date °C Date ≥35°C ≥32°C
Dr. Tr. Severin 77 22.2 25.6 3.4 W 11.5 29 40.8 25 13 21
Calafat 66 22.7 26.1 3.4 W 11.2 30 41.2 24 15 23
Bechet 65 22.4 24.4 2.0 W 7.0 29 41.2 24;26 14 22
Băileşti 56 22.5 26.3 3.8 W 8.5 29 40.5 24 13 22
Caracal 112 22.4 25.7 3.3 W 12.8 29 40.5 26 12 18
Craiova 190 22.2 25.1 2.9 W 10.6 14 39.8 24 12 16
Slatina 165 22.2 24.9 2.7 W 10.6 29 39.6 7;24 10 15
Bâcleș 309 20.9 24.0 3.1 W 11.2 15 37.9 25 8 13
Tg. Logreşti 262 20.2 21.9 1.7 WS 6.1 29 37.7 24 9 15
Drăgăşani 280 21.5 24.9 3.4 W 11.2 14 38.7 24;25 10 15
Apa Neagră 250 20.1 23.6 3.5 W 5.5 29 38.2 23 8 16
Tg. Jiu 210 20.9 23.8 2.9 W 8.7 14 38.5 24 8 16
Polovragi 546 19.4 22.7 3.3 W 8.5 29 36.5 25 6 10
Rm.Vâlcea 243 20.5 24.0 3.5 W 9.7 14 40.7 7 13 16
Voineasa 587 16.3 18.3 2.0 W 5.0 29 36.7 24 3 9
Parâng 1585 12.0 16.0 4.0 W 5.3 13 28.0 23
Mean Oltenia 20.5 23.6 3.1 W 9.0 38.5 10 16
(Source: Processed data from the CMR Oltenia archive)
Precipitation regime of August 2012. The monthly precipitation registered in August 2012 were comprised between 0.0 mm in Calafat and 48.7 mm in Bâcleș in the Mehedinți Hills. Their deviations from the multi-annual values were comprised between -100.0% in Calafat and -23.3% in Băilești, which according to Hellmann Criterion leads to an exceedingly droughty pluviometric time type for most of the region, confirmed also by the general average deviation from the normal (Table 2).
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3.4. Bio-climatic and social-economic implications
Drought was associated with high temperature values, canicular and scorching heat days during extended intervals of time. The pluviometric time type droughty predominated 81.2% of the summer and region area, the rainy type 12.5% of time and region area, and normal type only 6.3%. As a consequence of the excessive drought the degree of crop damage was high in the entire country, especially in the extra-Carpathian area, not only in Oltenia. The Romanian government decided to help the countrymen and farmers by drafting the GD 897/2012 which stipulated the provision of financial aid for the destructive effects of drought, of 100 lei/ha. The loss in the wheat crop was on the whole, for the entire country, of almost 600 thousand of tones compared to average of the last years. The loss in the sunflower crop was of about 40-45% of the production, and regarding the oil content, the reduction was of about 3-4%. The loss in the vegetables and fruit sector was of about 40%. (www.bihon.ro, 2012)
The producers' loss, caused by drought, were of 2.5 billion Euros or more, and the financial compensation given by the Ministry of Agriculture represented a recovery of only some hundreds of million Euros. All these led to rising prices of agricultural products and of the cost of living in general, especially given that there have been registered damages in the sector of electricity generation too (Hidroelectrica company registered losses of 253 million of euros or more), and the electricity consumption during summer was high mainly as a consequence of the use of air conditioning.
4. CONCLUSIONS
The summer of 2012 was particularly hot and droughty from the beginning of June. This happened due to the persistence of a blockage type of circulation above most of Europe. Although the thermal maxima were not exceptional and did not surpass the values recorded in previous years, the persistence of the hot weather led to exceptional monthly averages for July, so that it became the hottest July in the last 52 years, which became a record for this summer.
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REFERENCES
1. Marinică Ion (2006), Fenomene climatice de risc în Oltenia, Edit. Autograf MJM, Craiova, 386 p;
2. Octavia Bogdan, Ion Marinică (2007), Hazarde meteo-climatice din zona
temperată geneză şi vunerabilitate cu aplicaţii la România, Edit. Univ. Lucian
Blaga Sibiu, 422 p;
3. http://www.bihon.ro/ajutoare-pentru-fermierii-afectati-de-seceta/1167766, as retrieved on December 20, 2014
4.
http://archive-ro.com/page/694926/2012-11-19/http://www.brutarul.ro/index.php/ro/ altestiri/87-europa-afectat-de-secet-producie-redus-de-cereale-i-risc-
