No 609 ISSN 0104-8910
Perspectivas de Crescimento no Longo Prazo
para o Brasil: Quest ˜oes em Aberto
Samuel de Abreu Pess ˆoa
∗
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6
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2 6 B 5 3 H 3
H 2 ? 8+ H 2
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5 ? H ? 3 3 2 @ <
3 8+ 2 + 5D
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HD 5 > 3 6 3 < 2 5
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5 8+
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/ J & 6 6 8 " I
= 6 / + 5 5 K 8+ ? D ?
= 9 6 / + 2
6
(
= 5 8+ =5 ? <? <
= KH H 8+ ? 5 8 3
7 2 5 8
? = 3 8+ =5 2
5 8+ 6 N D 3 @ D
=5 6
I= 3 <
5 = 6 0 5 <
H 5 8+ 7
'/ O = 6 / 3 5 ?
3 < C) 6 '
3 < < + D
8 3 2 @
6 H 2 K 3 5 6 '
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3 H D ? ?
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> D 5 3 2 D
= + 2 ,V ? S TT*U.6
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H : 3 + 5 8
K ? 3 + D 3 8+ 6
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, + 5 8 K
5 8 .6
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3 ? 5 8
5 5 , 3 H
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2 .6 ? : 3 5 8
8+ 8+ 5 8 2 6(
% ? ? 8+
8+ 8+
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7 H ? ? ? D 5
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2 > 3 8+ KH
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5 ? / J ,()) . : 2 2 , TT-.?
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= 6 <? 2 8+ + 6 O
2 + > 2 6 B , TTT. X
2 ,()) . 3 2 2 3
3 + : 5 2
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H ? 5 8+ 8+ 3 = 6 / 9 <
5 2 5
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E
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8+ 6
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(
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δ = + +
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κ = +φ = +φ = =
5 = 2 5 8+ :O 6 5
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δ − −
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6
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(
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/0 −
=
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ϕ
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8+ ;
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<: ? 8+ = , <? 9
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A. < 8 3 <
8+ / 5 P*
E. 2 =
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*. + = 3 9 )? *
< 5 8+ 8+ H <
2 P
#6
/
KH
3
D
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P
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K 5 4 6
+ 3 < ? 8+
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5 H < 3
5 H 5 H 8+ 6
' 5 5 H
8+ 2 7 5 8 5
5 2 3 5 2 3 5 6 = 3
9 8+ 6 /
4 3 D 9 3 ?
D 2
3 8+ @ = ?
D 9 =
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? ? 3 K 5 +
8+ 6 ? K 5 + +
8 =5 3 D 2 ?
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5 6 ? K 5 +
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5 ? H
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8+ 7 3 , ? 3 = ?
5 . 2 8+
< : 2 D D 6
0 H D 3 8 3 8+ ?
8+ 8+ ? 7 H > ? 5 2 7
+ 8 = H 6 2 3 , . 2 @
2 8+ D 6 2 ?
? 3 2 3 D ? D 6
G 8+ = 2 6 G D
8+ = + + ( D + + ( + A
6 G 3 D ?
2 K 3 3 D ? 2 ?
3W ? 8+ = + ( + A+ E
6 / ? :<
8+ = −A
(
+ + ( + A)
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8 3 ? 8+ 6
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A (
A
( + = +
− − −
5 ( , .
A (
(
( + = +
− −
6 + 9 2
8 = 7 H (
A
−
3 = 3 > 6
' 8+ 3 @ 3 2 @
8+ 3 > 5 2 3 3 8+
6 2 3 D 8
3 2 @ 8+ D 6 O 5
8+ = D 6 D
5 2 D 3 ? 3 D
8+ D 6 <? 5 < H H
8+ 6 2 3 D 8+
5 2 D , ? 3
8+ ? D ? D ? > 5 2 .6
N 3 K > D 8+ 8+ =
D 6 3 3
8+ > 5 2 ? D 8+
3 > 5 2 D 6 / 8+ 5 2
3 D 6 B < < 3 K
T
D ? D 6 G < ? 9 D 8+ 3
= 8+ 3 ?
8 7 H 8+ , <? H D
D 9 5 2 .6
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8+ 8+ 3 . 5 = 5
5 ? (. =
D 3 5 2 +
? A. 2
< ? E. 2
6 / 4 ? : 3
< 5 6
H O ^ ,())A. ? 2= 8+ 5
5 , ? ? .6 / + 5
D D 7 8+ 3 + 5 H D 3 5
8+ 6 <? 3 8+
< D 3 8+ H 5
8+ '/ O @
6
#6
H
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<
P
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3 + ? < 3 ? <
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D < ? 3
D 6TG -) 6 6
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H 6 D
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3 D3 5 H D
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8 = D 7 8+ ? 3 ? ?
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H 3 D G ? 3
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: 6 /
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8+ 5 8+ 8+
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8 3 6 + 8 3
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2
8+
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8+ 6
< D ? 2 8+
5 4 5 8+
? 2 9 ? 5 8+
8 ? 2 H 8+ 8+ H
6 < 5 = ? 2
5 4 ? 3 8+
5 6
8+ 3 6 2= > 3 ?
: < ? 8+ 8+ =
H 8+ 6 G 5 H 8+ H 8+ <
6 G : 3 9 2 8+ 8+
= ? : (A[ ())) (T[ ())* D
8+ 8+ 5 6 G 5 + 5
8+ 8 6 / 8+
8+ = D 3 3
= : 6 <? < 8+
8 = 5 8+ 8
6 /? : ? +
2 + + 2 D 6
? 3 2 H<
2 ? + 2 = 8+ 2
= , 3 8 .6 3W ?
3 = @ 5 0 +
< + 2= 8 D 7 8+ H
2 > 6 O 5 ? 3 5 <
? 8 3 D : := 3
(
1 2 8+ < 3 D = D
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A
3 2= 8+ D 8+
= D 5 7 8+ 6 G 3
2 8+ = 6 I @ ? <
H 8+ 5 < < 5 7 = 6
/H D 6 / H 7 L
M O @ 6 O 3 3 5
2 2 5
2 6 5 2 5 : = 8+
5 8 2 $A 6
/ 8+ 5 < = 5
3 3 + ? ? 5 +
? ? 6
# 6
+
G 2 2 3 3
5 6 / 2=
K 6 O 5 2 8+
5 2
6 G 2= > 3 2
2 : D
H + 6 3 < 2 5
H 3 6 O 9 > 3
< 8 < 5
5 3 : 6 . / 3
D 9
8+ 6 N D 3 = 3 8+ < @
8+ <: 6 (. = 4
5
@= 8+ 6 / 5 3 <
3 5 5 <
5 5 , . 5 8
, . 3 5 2 + 6
= 8+ =5 3 < D 3
2 4 2 5
+ 8+ < 6
' KH 3 < 2 5
5 3 D 6 6 6 I=
> 3 3
5 8+ + 9 D
5 > K 8+ 6
5 8+ 3 4 8+
3 + 5 6 8+ 8+ 9
5 5 5 > 8+
5D 2 5 5 : 9 6
5 8+ = 8 5 5
E
3 B!6 G L5 2 M D
5 8+ = 5
5 6
8+ + = 3 = 5
L5 2 6M
3 + 5
+ = K 8+ 2 =
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´
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[589] Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guill´en, Jo˜ao Victor Issler, e George Athanasopou-los. Forecasting Accuracy and Estimation Uncertainty using VAR Models with Short– and Long–Term Economic Restrictions: A Monte–Carlo Study. Ensaios Econˆomicos da EPGE 589, EPGE–FGV, Abr 2005.
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[592] Rubens Penha Cysne. An Overview of Some Historical Brazilian Macroeco-nomic Series and Some Open Questions. Ensaios Econˆomicos da EPGE 592, EPGE–FGV, Jun 2005.
[594] Pedro Cavalcanti Gomes Ferreira, Roberto de G´oes Ellery Junior, e Victor Go-mes. Produtividade Agregada Brasileira (1970–2000): decl´ınio robusto e fraca recuperac¸˜ao. Ensaios Econˆomicos da EPGE 594, EPGE–FGV, Jul 2005.
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