~ 10 ~ ǰ ǥ ǿ ǻ Ƕ Ǹ ǸȖȴȐȟȪȘȜȑȜțȎȤȳȜțȎșȪțȜȑȜȡțȳȐȓȞȟȖȠȓȠȡȳȚȓțȳȀȎȞȎȟȎȆȓȐȥȓțȘȎ ISSN 1728-3817
Ɉ. Ȼɭɥɤɨɬ, ɤɚɧɞ. ɷɤɨɧ. ɧɚɭɤ, ɚɫɫɢɫɬ. ɄɇɍɢɦɟɧɢɌɚɪɚɫɚɒɟɜɱɟɧɤɨ, Ʉɢɟɜ
ȼȺɅɘɌɇȺəɆɍɅɖɌɂɉɈɅəɊɇɈɋɌɖȼɋɂɋɌȿɆȿȽɅɈȻȺɅɖɇɕɏɎɂɇȺɇɋɈȼ
Ɋɚɫɫɦɨɬɪɟɧɵɤɥɸɱɟɜɵɟɞɟɬɟɪɦɢɧɚɧɬɵ, ɨɩɪɟɞɟɥɹɸɳɢɟɪɚɡɜɢɬɢɟɦɟɠɞɭɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɝɨɫɬɚɬɭɫɚɜɚɥɸɬɵ. ȼɵɞɟɥɟɧɵɝɥɚɜɧɵɟɬɟɧɞɟɧ
-ɰɢɢɮɨɪɦɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹɜɚɥɸɬɧɨɝɨɤɨɦɩɨɧɟɧɬɚɦɟɠɞɭɧɚɪɨɞɧɵɯɪɟɡɟɪɜɨɜɫɬɪɚɧ. ɉɪɨɚɧɚɥɢɡɢɪɨɜɚɧɵɩɚɪɚɦɟɬɪɵɝɥɚɜɧɵɯɦɟɠɞɭɧɚɪɨɞɧɵɯ
ɪɟɡɟɪɜɧɵɯɜɚɥɸɬ, ɩɪɨɜɟɞɟɧɢɯɤɨɦɩɚɪɚɬɢɜɧɵɣɚɧɚɥɢɡ. ɂɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɵɫɨɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɟɬɟɧɞɟɧɰɢɢɪɚɡɜɢɬɢɹɫɢɫɬɟɦɵɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɯɮɢɧɚɧ
-ɫɨɜɢɦɢɪɨɜɨɣɜɚɥɸɬɧɨɣɫɢɫɬɟɦɵɜɱɚɫɬɧɨɫɬɢ.
Ʉɥɸɱɟɜɵɟɫɥɨɜɚ: ɜɚɥɸɬɧɚɹɦɭɥɶɬɢɩɨɥɹɪɧɨɫɬɶ, ɪɟɡɟɪɜɧɚɹɜɚɥɸɬɚ, ɫɢɫɬɟɦɚɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɯɮɢɧɚɧɫɨɜ, ɦɟɠɞɭɧɚɪɨɞɧɵɣɫɬɚɬɭɫɜɚɥɸɬɵ.
O. Bulkot, PhD in Economics, Assistant
Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv
CURRENCY MULTIPOLARITY IN THE SYSTEM OF GLOBAL FINANCE
The key determinants for defining and development of international position of currency are given. The main tendencies of composition of international reserves by currency component are determined. The parameters of main international reserve currencies are comparatively analyzed. The key modern tendencies in evolution of the system of global finance and the international monetary system in particular are examined.
Keywords: currency multipolarity, reserve currency, system of global finance, international role of currency.
ɍȾɄ 339.72 JEL F34
ɇ. ȼɟɪɫɚɥɶ, ɤɚɧɞ. ɟɤɨɧ. ɧɚɭɤ, ɞɨɰ. ɄɇɍɿɦɟɧɿɌɚɪɚɫɚɒɟɜɱɟɧɤɚ, Ʉɢʀɜ
ǺǥǴǻǮǾǼDzǻǶǷ
ǾǶǻǼǸ
DzdzǾǴǮǰǻǶȃ
ȄǥǻǻǶȃ
ǽǮǽdzǾǥǰ
:
ǿǽdzȄǶȂǥǸǮ
ȂȁǻǸȄǥǼǻȁǰǮǻǻȍ
Ɋɨɡɤɪɢɬɨɫɩɟɰɢɮɿɤɭɮɭɧɤɰɿɨɧɭɜɚɧɧɹɦɿɠɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɝɨɪɢɧɤɭɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɢɯɰɿɧɧɢɯɩɚɩɟɪɿɜɜɩɪɨɞɨɜɠ 1993 – 2012 ɪɪ.: ɨɫɧɨ -ɜɧɢɦɢɣɨɝɨɝɪɚɜɰɹɦɢɽɪɨɡɜɢɧɟɧɿɤɪɚʀɧɢ (ɤɪɚʀɧɢɁɚɯɿɞɧɨʀȯɜɪɨɩɢ, Ʉɚɧɚɞɚ, ɋɒȺ) ɡ ɩɨɫɢɥɟɧɧɹɦɪɨɥɿɤɪɚʀɧ, ɳɨɪɨɡɜɢɜɚ -ɸɬɶɫɹ; ɧɟɝɚɬɢɜɧɢɣɜɩɥɢɜɛɨɪɝɨɜɢɯɤɪɢɡɧɟɬɿɥɶɤɢɧɚɪɨɡɜɢɬɨɤɦɿɠɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɝɨɪɢɧɤɭɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɢɯɰɿɧɧɢɯɩɚɩɟɪɿɜ, ɚɥɟɣ ɦɿɠɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɝɨɪɢɧɤɭɤɚɩɿɬɚɥɿɜɡɚɝɚɥɨɦ; ɛɨɪɝɨɜɿɤɪɢɡɢɧɟɽɫɩɨɧɬɚɧɧɢɦɹɜɢɳɟɦ, ɿ, ɹɤɩɪɚɜɢɥɨ, ɨɛɭɦɨɜɥɸɸɬɶɫɹɧɟɚɞɟɤ -ɜɚɬɧɢɦɡɪɨɫɬɚɧɧɸȼȼɉɧɚɪɨɳɟɧɧɹɦɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɨɝɨɛɨɪɝɭ.
Ʉɥɸɱɨɜɿɫɥɨɜɚ: ɦɿɠɧɚɪɨɞɧɢɣɪɢɧɨɤɤɚɩɿɬɚɥɿɜ, ɦɿɠɧɚɪɨɞɧɢɣɪɢɧɨɤɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɢɯɰɿɧɧɢɯɩɚɩɟɪɿɜ, ɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɿɰɿɧɧɿɩɚɩɟɪɢ, ɛɨɪɝɨɜɚɤɪɢɡɚ.
ɉɨɫɬɚɧɨɜɤɚ ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɢ. Ɇɿɠɧɚɪɨɞɧɢɣ ɪɢɧɨɤ ɛɨɪɝɨ -ɜɢɯ ɰɿɧɧɢɯ ɩɚɩɟɪɿɜ ɦɨɠɟ ɛɭɬɢ ɜɢɤɨɪɢɫɬɚɧɢɣ ɭɪɹɞɚɦɢ ɤɪɚʀɧ ɞɥɹ ɡɚɥɭɱɟɧɧɹ ɤɨɲɬɿɜ, ɹɤ ɩɪɚɜɢɥɨ, ɡ ɧɚɫɬɭɩɧɢɦɢ ɰɿɥɹɦɢ: ɩɨɤɪɢɬɬɹ ɪɿɡɧɢɰɿ ɦɿɠ ɜɢɞɚɬɤɚɦɢ ɬɚ ɞɨɯɨɞɚɦɢ ɤɪɚ-ʀɧɢ; ɪɟɮɿɧɚɧɫɭɜɚɧɧɹ ɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɨɝɨ ɛɨɪɝɭ; ɡɚɥɭɱɟɧɧɹ ɤɚɩɿ-ɬɚɥɭ ɞɥɹ ɜɟɥɢɤɢɯ ɩɪɨɟɤɬɿɜ, ɜ ɹɤɢɯ ɞɟɪɠɚɜɚ ɛɟɪɟ ɭɱɚɫɬɶ.
Ɇɿɠɧɚɪɨɞɧɢɣ ɪɢɧɨɤ ɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɢɯ ɰɿɧɧɢɯ ɩɚɩɟɪɿɜ (ɆɊȾɐɉ) ɦɚɽ ɧɢɡɤɭ ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɫɬɢɤ, ɹɤɿ ɭ ɫɭɤɭɩɧɨɫɬɿ ɞɨ-ɡɜɨɥɹɸɬɶ ɜɢɡɧɚɱɢɬɢ ɣɨɝɨ ɨɫɧɨɜɧɿ ɜɿɞɦɿɧɧɿ ɪɢɫɢ ɜɿɞ ɦɿɠ-ɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɝɨ ɪɢɧɤɭ ɤɨɪɩɨɪɚɬɢɜɧɢɯ ɛɨɪɝɨɜɢɯ ɰɿɧɧɢɯ ɩɚɩɟ-ɪɿɜ, ɚ ɫɚɦɟ: ɦɿɧɿɦɚɥɶɧɢɣ ɤɪɟɞɢɬɧɢɣ ɪɢɡɢɤ ɿ ɜɿɞɩɨɜɿɞɧɨ ɜɢɫɨɤɚ ɧɚɞɿɣɧɿɫɬɶ; ɥɿɤɜɿɞɧɿɫɬɶ ɿ ɦɨɠɥɢɜɨɫɬɿ ɿɧɜɟɫɬɭɜɚɧɧɹ ɜ ɪɿɡɧɿ ɡɚ ɫɬɪɨɤɚɦɢ ɰɿɧɧɿ ɩɚɩɟɪɢ; ɪɨɡɜɢɧɟɧɢɣ ɪɢɧɨɤ.
Ɂɜɢɱɚɣɧɨ, ɳɨ ɰɿ ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɫɬɢɤɢ ɩɪɢɬɚɦɚɧɧɿ ɧɟ ɜɫɿɦ ɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɢɦ ɰɿɧɧɢɦ ɩɚɩɟɪɚɦ, ɨɫɤɿɥɶɤɢ ɜɫɟ ɡɚɥɟɠɢɬɶ ɜɿɞ ɤɪɚʀɧɢ – ɟɦɿɬɟɧɬɚ, ɚɛɨ ɤɪɟɞɢɬɨɫɩɪɨɦɨɠɧɨɫɬɿ ɤɪɚʀɧɢ – ɟɦɿɬɟɧɬɚ. ɉɨɽɞɧɚɧɧɹ ɜɢɳɟɜɤɚɡɚɧɢɯ ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɫɬɢɤ ɞɨ-ɡɜɨɥɹɽ ɦɿɠɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɦɭ ɪɢɧɤɭ ɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɢɯ ɰɿɧɧɢɯ ɩɚɩɟɪɿɜ ɝɪɚɬɢ ɫɩɟɰɢɮɿɱɧɿ ɪɨɥɿ ɜ ɟɤɨɧɨɦɿɰɿ, ɡɨɤɪɟɦɚ ɧɚ ɞɭɦɤɭ Ɇɟɬɶɸɫɨɧɚ Ⱦ. ɬɚ ɒɿɧɚɡɿ Ƚ. ɜɚɪɬɨ ɜɢɨɤɪɟɦɢɬɢ ɧɚɫɬɭɩɧɿ [7]: ɆɊȾɐɉ ɽ ɞɠɟɪɟɥɨɦ ɿɧɞɢɤɚɬɢɜɧɢɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɧɬɧɢɯ ɫɬɚ-ɜɨɤɬɚɮɨɪɦɭɜɚɧɧɹɰɿɧɧɚɦɿɠɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɦɭɪɢɧɤɭɛɨɪɝɨɜɢɯ ɰɿɧɧɢɯ ɩɚɩɟɪɿɜ, ɩɪɨɞɭɤɭɽ ɟɮɟɤɬɢɜɧɿ ɿɧɫɬɪɭɦɟɧɬɢ ɯɟɞɠɭ-ɜɚɧɧɹ ɪɢɡɢɤɭ ɩɪɨɰɟɧɬɧɢɯ ɫɬɚɜɨɤ ɡɚ ɤɨɪɩɨɪɚɬɢɜɧɢɦɢ ɨɛɥɿɝɚɰɿɹɦɢ, ɞɨɡɜɨɥɹɽ ɪɟɝɭɥɸɜɚɬɢ ɥɿɤɜɿɞɧɿɫɬɶ ɪɢɧɤɭ, ɩɪɨɩɨɧɭɽ ɿɧɫɬɪɭɦɟɧɬɢ ɞɥɹ ɿɧɜɟɫɬɭɜɚɧɧɹ ɬɚ ɯɟɞɠɭɜɚɧɧɹ ɩɪɨɰɟɧɬɧɢɯ ɫɬɚɜɨɤ, ɩɪɨɞɭɤɭɽ "ɦɚɣɠɟ ɝɪɨɲɿ". ɋɚɦɟ ɬɨɦɭ ɽ ɧɟɨɛɯɿɞɧɿɫɬɶ ɞɟɬɚɥɶɧɨ ɩɪɨɚɧɚɥɿɡɭɜɚɬɢ ɫɭɱɚɫɧɭ ɫɢɬɭɚ-ɰɿɸ ɧɚ ɦɿɠɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɦɭ ɪɢɧɤɭ ɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɢɯ ɰɿɧɧɢɯ ɩɚɩɟɪɿɜ, ɨɫɤɿɥɶɤɢ ɨɫɬɚɧɧɿɦ ɱɚɫɨɦ ɜɿɧ ɽ ɜɢɡɧɚɱɚɥɶɧɢɦ ɩɨɤɚɡɧɢɤɨɦ ɟɤɨɧɨɦɿɱɧɨɝɨ ɪɨɡɜɢɬɤɭ ɤɪɚʀɧ.
Ⱥɧɚɥɿɡɨɫɬɚɧɧɿɯ ɞɨɫɥɿɞɠɟɧɶɿɩɭɛɥɿɤɚɰɿɣ. Ⱦɟɬɚɥɶ-ɧɚ ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɫɬɢɤɚ ɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɢɯ ɰɿɧɧɢɯ ɩɚɩɟɪɿɜ, ɹɤɿ ɦɨ -ɠɭɬɶ ɨɛɟɪɬɚɬɢɫɹ ɧɚ ɦɿɠɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɦɭ ɪɢɧɤɭ ɰɿɧɧɢɯ ɩɚɩɟɪɿɜ, ɩɨɞɚɧɚ ɜ ɪɨɛɨɬɿ Ȼɚɡɢɥɟɜɢɱɚ ȼ.Ⱦ., ɒɟɥɭɞɶɤɨ ȼ.Ɇ. [2]. Ɋɨɡɤɪɢɬɬɹ ɫɩɟɰɢɮɿɤɢ ɪɨɡɜɢɬɤɭ ɦɿɠɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɝɨ ɪɢɧɤɭ
ɨɛɥɿ-ɝɚɰɿɣɩɨɞɚɧɨɜɪɨɛɨɬɚɯȻɟɧɰɿɊ., Ɋɨɭɡɚɉ., ɆɚɪɤɿɫɚɆ. ɬɚ ɿɧɲɢɯ [3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 11]. Ⱦɟɬɚɥɶɧɚ ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɫɬɢɤɚ ɫɚɦɟ ɨɫɨɛɥɢɜɨɫɬɟɣ ɦɿɠɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɝɨ ɪɢɧɤɭ ɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɢɯ ɰɿɧɧɢɯ ɩɚɩɟɪɿɜ ɜ ɤɨɧɬɟɤɫɬɿ ɣɨɝɨ ɫɭɬɧɿɫɧɢɯ ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɫɬɢɤ ɩɨɞɚɧɚ ɜ ɪɨɛɨɬɿ Ɇɟɬɶɸɫɨɧɚ Ⱦ. ɬɚ ɒɿɧɚɡɿ Ƚ. [7].
ɇɟɜɢɪɿɲɟɧɿɪɚɧɿɲɟ ɱɚɫɬɢɧɢ ɡɚɝɚɥɶɧɨʀɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɢ. Ɂɜɚɠɚɸɱɢ ɧɚ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɢ ɩɨɩɟɪɟɞɧɿɯ ɞɨɫɥɿɞɠɟɧɶ, ɜɜɚ-ɠɚɽɦɨ ɡɚ ɧɟɨɛɯɿɞɧɟ ɩɨɞɚɬɢ ɚɧɚɥɿɬɢɱɧɢɣ ɡɪɿɡ ɫɢɬɭɚɰɿʀ ɧɚ ɦɿɠɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɦɭ ɪɢɧɤɭ ɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɢɯ ɰɿɧɧɢɯ ɩɚɩɟɪɿɜ ɜɩɪɨ-ɞɨɜɠ 1993 – 2012 ɪɪ., ɩɨɩɟɪɟɞɧɶɨ ɪɨɡɤɪɢɜɲɢ ɧɚ ɛɚɡɿ ɞɨɫɥɿɞɠɟɧɧɹ Ɇɟɬɶɸɫɨɧɚ Ⱦ. ɬɚ ɒɿɧɚɡɿ Ƚ. [7] ɣɨɝɨ ɨɫɧɨɜɧɿ ɫɭɬɧɿɫɧɿ ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɫɬɢɤɢ.
Ɇɟɬɨɸɫɬɚɬɬɿ ɽ ɡ'ɹɫɭɜɚɧɧɹ ɫɩɟɰɢɮɿɤɢ ɮɭɧɤɰɿɨɧɭɜɚɧ-ɧɹ ɦɿɠɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɝɨ ɪɢɧɤɭ ɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɢɯ ɰɿɧɧɢɯ ɩɚɩɟɪɿɜ ɜɩɪɨ-ɞɨɜɠ 1993 – 2012 ɪɪ., ɚ ɬɚɤɨɠ ɜɢɡɧɚɱɟɧɧɹ ɩɪɢɱɢɧ ɪɨɡ-ɜɢɬɤɭɛɨɪɝɨɜɢɯɤɪɢɡɜɨɤɪɟɦɢɯɤɪɚʀɧɚɯɫɜɿɬɭ.
ȼɢɤɥɚɞɨɫɧɨɜɧɨɝɨɦɚɬɟɪɿɚɥɭɞɨɫɥɿɞɠɟɧɧɹ. Ɉɫɧɨ-ɜɧɢɦɢɫɭɬɧɿɫɧɢɦɢɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɫɬɢɤɚɦɢɦɿɠɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɝɨɪɢɧ -ɤɭ ɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɢɯ ɰɿɧɧɢɯ ɩɚɩɟɪɿɜ ɡɚ Ɇɟɬɶɸɫɨɧɨɦ Ⱦ., ɒɿɧɚɡɿ Ƚ., Ɋɨɭɡɚɉ., ɆɚɪɤɿɫɚɆ. ɽ [7, 11]:
ɉɨ-ɩɟɪɲɟ, ɆɊȾɐɉ ɽ ɞɠɟɪɟɥɨɦ ɿɧɞɢɤɚɬɢɜɧɢɯ ɩɪɨɰɟ-ɧɬɧɢɯɫɬɚɜɨɤɬɚɮɨɪɦɭɜɚɧɧɹɰɿɧɧɚɦɿɠɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɦɭɪɢɧɤɭ ɛɨɪɝɨɜɢɯ ɰɿɧɧɢɯ ɩɚɩɟɪɿɜ. Ʉɪɢɜɿ ɩɪɢɛɭɬɤɨɜɨɫɬɿ ɡɚ ɞɟɪɠɚ-ɜɧɢɦɢ ɛɨɪɝɨɜɢɦɢ ɿɧɫɬɪɭɦɟɧɬɚɦɢ ɞɨɫɢɬɶ ɱɚɫɬɨ ɽɨɪɿɽɧ -ɬɢɪɚɦɢ ɞɥɹ ɮɨɪɦɭɜɚɧɧɹ ɰɿɧ ɡɚ ɤɨɪɩɨɪɚɬɢɜɧɢɦɢ ɛɨɪɝɨ-ɜɢɦɢ ɰɿɧɧɢɦɢ ɩɚɩɟɪɚɦɢ. ɐɟ ɩɨɹɫɧɸɽɬɶɫɹ ɹɤ ɬɢɦ, ɳɨ Ⱦɐɉ ɚɤɬɢɜɧɨ ɬɨɪɝɭɸɬɶɫɹ, ɬɚɤ ɿ ɬɢɦ, ɳɨ ɜɨɧɢ ɦɚɸɬɶ ɧɢ-ɡɶɤɢɣ ɪɿɜɟɧɶ ɞɟɮɨɥɬɭ. Ʉɥɸɱɨɜɿ ɩɪɨɰɟɧɬɧɿ ɫɬɚɜɤɢ ɽ ɧɚɣ-ɛɿɥɶɲ ɤɨɪɢɫɧɢɦɢ, ɤɨɥɢ ɜɨɧɢ ɞɨɡɜɨɥɹɸɬɶ ɿɧɜɟɫɬɨɪɚɦ ɱɿɬɤɨ ɜɿɞɪɿɡɧɹɬɢ ɤɨɥɢɜɚɧɧɹ ɩɪɟɦɿɣ ɡɚ ɤɪɟɞɢɬɧɢɣ ɪɢɡɢɤ ɜɿɞ ɤɨɥɢɜɚɧɶ ɜɿɞɫɨɬɤɨɜɢɯ ɫɬɚɜɨɤ.
ɉɨ-ɞɪɭɝɟ, ɆɊȾɐɉ ɩɪɨɞɭɤɭɽ ɟɮɟɤɬɢɜɧɿ ɿɧɫɬɪɭɦɟɧɬɢ ɯɟɞɠɭɜɚɧɧɹ ɪɢɡɢɤɭ ɩɪɨɰɟɧɬɧɢɯ ɫɬɚɜɨɤ ɡɚ ɤɨɪɩɨɪɚɬɢɜ -ɧɢɦɢ ɨɛɥɿɝɚɰɿɹɦɢ. əɤ ɮɿɧɚɧɫɨɜɿ ɩɨɫɟɪɟɞɧɢɤɢ, ɬɚɤ ɿ ɧɟ-ɮɿɧɚɧɫɨɜɿɤɨɦɩɚɧɿʀɦɚɸɬɶɩɨɩɢɬɧɚɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɿɰɿɧɧɿɩɚɩɟ -ɪɢ ɞɥɹ ɯɟɞɠɭɜɚɧɧɹ ɪɢɡɢɤɿɜ ɜɤɥɚɞɟɧɶ ɜ ɰɿɧɧɿ ɩɚɩɟɪɢ ɡ
ISSN 1728-2667 dzǸǼǻǼǺǥǸǮ. 12(153)/2013 ~ 11 ~
ɮɿɤɫɨɜɚɧɢɦɞɨɯɨɞɨɦ, ɜɩɟɪɲɭɱɟɪɝɭɩɪɨɰɟɧɬɧɨɝɨɪɢɡɢɤɭ ɿ ɪɢɡɢɤɭ ɪɨɡɪɢɜɿɜ ɭ ɬɟɪɦɿɧɚɯ ɩɨɝɚɲɟɧɧɹ. ɍɱɚɫɧɢɤɢ ɧɚ ɩɟɪɜɢɧɧɨɦɭɪɢɧɤɭ, ɜɤɥɸɱɚɸɱɢ ɞɢɥɟɪɿɜ ɰɿɧɧɢɯ ɩɚɩɟɪɿɜ, ɱɚɫɬɨɩɪɨɞɚɸɬɶɤɨɪɨɬɤɨɫɬɪɨɤɨɜɿɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɿɰɿɧɧɿɩɚɩɟɪɢ, ɳɨɛ ɡɧɢɡɢɬɢ ɪɢɡɢɤ ɜɬɪɚɬ ɡ ɰɿɧɧɢɯ ɩɚɩɟɪɿɜ ɩɪɢ ɩɿɞɜɢ -ɳɟɧɧɿɩɪɨɰɟɧɬɧɢɯɫɬɚɜɨɤɚɛɨɩɪɢɡɧɢɠɟɧɧɿɰɿɧɧɚɨɛɥɿ -ɝɚɰɿʀ. ɍɱɚɫɧɢɤɢ ɦɿɠɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɝɨɪɢɧɤɭɰɿɧɧɢɯɩɚɩɟɪɿɜ ɱɚɫ -ɬɨ ɤɭɩɭɸɬɶ ɿ ɩɪɨɞɚɸɬɶ ɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɿ ɰɿɧɧɿ ɩɚɩɟɪɢ ɞɥɹ ɭɩɪɚɜɥɿɧɧɹɩɨɪɬɮɟɥɶɧɢɦɢɪɢɡɢɤɚɦɢ.
Ɉɞɧɚɤ, ɿɧɨɞɿɦɨɠɥɢɜɿɣɿɧɲɿɜɚɪɿɚɧɬɢɪɨɡɜɢɬɤɭɩɨɞɿɣ. Ɍɚɤ, ɜɟɥɢɱɟɡɧɿ ɜɬɪɚɬɢ ɜɢɧɢɤɥɢ ɭ ɬɪɟɣɞɟɪɿɜ ɛɨɪɝɨɜɢɯ ɰɿɧɧɢɯ ɩɚɩɟɪɿɜ, ɹɤɿ ɧɚɦɚɝɚɥɢɫɹ ɡɚɫɬɪɚɯɭɜɚɬɢɫɹ ɡ ɜɢɤɨ -ɪɢɫɬɚɧɧɹɦ ɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɢɯ ɰɿɧɧɢɯ ɩɚɩɟɪɿɜ ɩɿɞ ɱɚɫ ɤɨɥɚɩɫɭ Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) ɜɨɫɟɧɢ 1998 ɪ. Ɉɫɧɨɜɧɚ ɿɞɟɹɮɭɧɤɰɿɨɧɭɜɚɧɧɹ ɮɨɧɞɭ: ɜɢɹɜɥɟɧɧɹɩɚɩɟ -ɪɿɜ, ɧɟɩɪɚɜɢɥɶɧɨ ɨɰɿɧɟɧɢɯ ɳɨɞɨ ɿɧɲɢɯɰɿɧɧɢɯ ɩɚɩɟɪɿɜ. Ⱦɨɜɝɿɩɨɡɢɰɿʀɬɪɢɦɚɥɢɫɹɡɚɧɟɞɨɨɰɿɧɟɧɢɦɢ, ɤɨɪɨɬɤɿ – ɡɚ ɩɟɪɟɨɰɿɧɟɧɢɦɢɰɿɧɧɢɦɢ ɩɚɩɟɪɚɦɢ. Ɉɫɧɨɜɧɿ ɧɚɩɪɹɦɤɢɜ ɫɬɪɚɬɟɝɿʀ: ɤɨɧɜɟɪɝɟɧɰɿɹ ɦɿɠ ɫɭɜɟɪɟɧɧɢɦɢ ɨɛɥɿɝɚɰɿɹɦɢ ɟɦɿɬɟɧɬɿɜɋɒȺ, əɩɨɧɿʀɬɚȯɜɪɨɩɟɣɫɶɤɢɯɤɪɚʀɧ; ɤɨɧɜɟɪɝɟ -ɧɰɿɹɦɿɠɫɭɜɟɪɟɧɧɢɦɢɨɛɥɿɝɚɰɿɹɦɢɟɦɿɬɟɧɬɿɜȯɜɪɨɩɟɣɫɶ -ɤɢɯ ɤɪɚʀɧ; ɤɨɧɜɟɪɝɟɧɰɿɹ ɦɿɠ on-the-run (ɧɟɳɨɞɚɜɧɨ ɜɢ -ɩɭɳɟɧɢɦɢ) and off-the-run (ɞɚɜɧɨɜɢɩɭɳɟɧɢɦɢ) ɞɟɪɠɚɜ -ɧɢɦɢɨɛɥɿɝɚɰɿɹɦɢɋɒȺ. Ɏɨɧɞɦɚɜɩɨɡɢɰɿʀɧɚɪɿɡɧɨɦɚɧɿɬ -ɧɢɯɪɢɧɤɚɯ: ɞɚɬɫɶɤɿɡɚɫɬɚɜɧɿ, ɚɦɟɪɢɤɚɧɫɶɤɿɤɚɡɧɚɱɟɣɫɶɤɿ ɨɛɥɿɝɚɰɿʀ, ɪɨɫɿɣɫɶɤɿ ɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɿ ɤɚɡɧɚɱɟɣɫɶɤɿ ɨɛɥɿɝɚɰɿʀ, ɚɦɟɪɢɤɚɧɫɶɤɿɚɤɰɿʀ, ɡɚɫɬɚɜɧɿɨɛɥɿɝɚɰɿʀ, ɥɚɬɢɧɨɚɦɟɪɢɤɚɧ -ɫɶɤɿɨɛɥɿɝɚɰɿʀ, ɚɧɝɥɿɣɫɶɤɿ ɨɛɥɿɝɚɰɿʀɣɚɦɟɪɢɤɚɧɫɶɤɿ ɫɜɨɩɢ. LTCM ɩɪɚɝɧɭɜ, ɳɨɛ ɜɨɥɚɬɢɥɶɧɿɫɬɶ ɚɤɬɢɜɿɜ ɮɨɧɞɭ ɛɭɥɚ ɛɥɢɡɶɤɨ 20% ɳɨɞɨɪɿɱɧɨʀɫɟɪɟɞɧɶɨʀɜɚɪɬɨɫɬɿɚɤɬɢɜɿɜ ɿɜ ɫɟɪɟɞɧɶɨɦɭɫɬɚɧɨɜɢɥɚ 11,5%. Ɏɨɧɞ ɩɨɱɚɜɬɨɪɝɭɜɚɬɢ ɜ ɥɸɬɨɦɭ 1994 ɪ., ɚ ɜɠɟ ɜ 1995 ɪ. ɿɧɜɟɫɬɨɪɢ ɡɚɪɨɛɢɥɢ 43%, ɚɜ 1996 ɪ. – 41%. Ɂɚɩɿɞɫɭɦɤɚɦɢ ɬɪɶɨɯɪɨɤɿɜ (ɤɿ -ɧɟɰɶ 1997 ɪ.) ɩɪɢɛɭɬɨɤ ɫɤɥɚɜ ɛɥɢɡɶɤɨ 40%. Ɉɞɧɚɤ, 17 ɫɟɪɩɧɹ 1998 ɪ. Ɋɨɫɿɹɨɝɨɥɨɫɢɥɚɞɟɮɨɥɬɩɨɜɧɭɬɪɿɲ -ɧɶɨɦɭɛɨɪɝɭ. Ɂɰɶɨɝɨɦɨɦɟɧɬɭɩɨɱɚɜɫɹɩɟɪɿɨɞɞɪɚɦɚɬɢ -ɱɧɢɯɪɢɧɤɨɜɢɯ ɩɨɞɿɣ, ɹɤɿɩɪɢɡɜɟɥɢɮɨɧɞɞɨɜɟɥɢɱɟɡɧɢɯ ɡɛɢɬɤɿɜ. ȼɠɟ 21 ɫɟɪɩɧɹ 1998 ɪ. ɣɨɝɨ ɡɛɢɬɤɢ ɫɤɥɚɥɢ 551 ɦɥɧ. ɞɨɥ. ɋɒȺ, ɡɞɟɛɿɥɶɲɨɝɨɩɨɩɨɡɢɰɿɹɯ, ɹɤɿɧɟɦɚ -ɥɢɠɨɞɧɨɝɨɜɿɞɧɨɲɟɧɧɹɞɨɊɨɫɿʀ, ɚɥɟɟɮɟɤɬɜɿɞʀʀɞɟɮɨ -ɥɬɭɧɟɛɟɡɩɨɫɟɪɟɞɧɶɨ ɜɩɥɢɧɭɜɧɚ ʀɯɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬ. Ɂɛɢɬɨɤ ɞɨ 21 ɫɟɪɩɧɹɛɭɜɛɿɥɶɲɢɦ, ɧɿɠ 10-ɬɢɤɪɚɬɧɚɞɟɧɧɚɜɨɥɚ -ɬɢɥɶɧɿɫɬɶɚɤɬɢɜɿɜ ɮɨɧɞɭ. Ʉɨɦɩ'ɸɬɟɪɧɿ ɬɚɛɥɢɰɿɪɨɡɪɚɯɭ -ɜɚɥɢ ɧɭɥɶɨɜɭɣɦɨɜɿɪɧɿɫɬɶ ɬɚɤɨʀ ɩɨɞɿʀ, ɹɤɳɨ ɜɢɯɨɞɢɬɢ ɡ ɧɨɪɦɚɥɶɧɨɝɨɪɨɡɩɨɞɿɥɭɣɦɨɜɿɪɧɨɫɬɟɣ [8, 9].
ɇɚ ɩɨɱɚɬɤɭ ɜɟɪɟɫɧɹ 1998 ɪ. ɿɧɜɟɫɬɨɪɢ ɮɨɧɞɭɩɨɛɚ -ɱɢɥɢ, ɳɨ ʀɯɧɿ ɿɧɜɟɫɬɢɰɿʀ ɫɤɨɪɨɬɢɥɢɫɹ ɧɚɩɨɥɨɜɢɧɭ ɜɿɞ ɪɿɜɧɹɫɿɱɧɹ, ɿɮɨɧɞɫɬɪɿɦɤɨɜɬɪɚɱɚɜɤɚɩɿɬɚɥ. Ɂɭɫɬɪɿɜɲɢɫɶ 23 ɜɟɪɟɫɧɹ 1998 ɩɿɞ ɡɚɫɬɭɩɧɢɰɬɜɨɦɎɟɞɟɪɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɪɟ -ɡɟɪɜɧɨɝɨ ɛɚɧɤɭ ɇɶɸ-Ƀɨɪɤɚ, ɝɥɚɜɢ 14 ɩɪɨɜɿɞɧɢɯ ɛɚɧɤɿɜ ɬɚɿɧɜɟɫɬɢɰɿɣɧɢɯɤɨɦɩɚɧɿɣɜɢɪɿɲɢɥɢɿɧɜɟɫɬɭɜɚɬɢɞɨɮɨ -ɧɞɭ LTCM 3,65 ɦɥɪɞ. ɞɨɥ. ɋɒȺ. ɍɠɨɜɬɧɿ 1999 ɪ. ɮɨɧɞ ɛɭɜɪɨɡɮɨɪɦɨɜɚɧɢɣ [8, 9].
ɉɨ-ɬɪɟɬɽ, ɆɊȾɐɉ ɞɨɡɜɨɥɹɽ ɪɟɝɭɥɸɜɚɬɢ ɥɿɤɜɿɞɧɿɫɬɶ ɪɢɧɤɭ. ɍɝɨɞɢ ɡ ɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɢɦɢ ɰɿɧɧɢɦɢ ɩɚɩɟɪɚɦɢ ɧɚ ɝɪɨ -ɲɨɜɨɦɭɪɢɧɤɭɬɚɧɚɪɢɧɤɭɪɟɩɨ-ɭɝɨɞ ɜɢɤɨɪɢɫɬɨɜɭɸɬɶɫɹ ɞɥɹ ɭɩɪɚɜɥɿɧɧɹ ɥɿɤɜɿɞɧɿɫɬɸ ɹɤ ɿɧɫɬɢɬɭɰɿɣɧɢɦɢ, ɬɚɤɣ ɿɧ -ɞɢɜɿɞɭɚɥɶɧɢɦɢ ɿɧɜɟɫɬɨɪɚɦɢ. Ɉɫɤɿɥɶɤɢ ɨɩɟɪɚɰɿʀ ɪɟɩɨ ɡɚɛɟɡɩɟɱɟɧɿ, ɮɿɧɚɧɫɭɜɚɧɧɹɧɚ ɪɢɧɤɭ ɪɟɩɨɜɿɞɛɭɜɚɽɬɶɫɹ ɡɚɧɢɠɱɢɦɢɫɬɚɜɤɚɦɢ, ɧɿɠɡɚɛɟɡɡɚɫɬɚɜɧɢɦɢɤɪɟɞɢɬɚɦɢ. ɉɨ-ɱɟɬɜɟɪɬɟ, ɆɊȾɐɉɩɪɨɩɨɧɭɽɿɧɫɬɪɭɦɟɧɬɢɞɥɹɿɧɜɟ -ɫɬɭɜɚɧɧɹɬɚɯɟɞɠɭɜɚɧɧɹɩɪɨɰɟɧɬɧɢɯɫɬɚɜɨɤ. Ɇɿɧɿɦɚɥɶɧɢɣ ɤɪɟɞɢɬɧɢɣɪɢɡɢɤ ɿɩɨɪɿɜɧɹɧɨ ɧɢɡɶɤɢɣ ɪɢɧɤɨɜɢɣɪɢɡɢɤ ɿɧ -ɜɟɫɬɭɜɚɧɧɹɜ ɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɿɰɿɧɧɿɩɚɩɟɪɢɩɟɪɟɬɜɨɪɸɸɬɶʀɯɧɚ ɜɿɞɧɨɫɧɨɛɟɡɩɟɱɧɿɞɨɜɝɨɫɬɪɨɤɨɜɿɿɧɜɟɫɬɢɰɿʀɞɥɹɩɟɧɫɿɣɧɢɯ ɮɨɧɞɿɜ, ɫɬɪɚɯɨɜɢɯ ɤɨɦɩɚɧɿɣ ɬɚ ɿɧɲɢɯ ɿɧɫɬɢɬɭɰɿɨɧɚɥɶɧɢɯ ɿɧɜɟɫɬɨɪɿɜ. Ʉɪɿɦɬɨɝɨ, ɡɚɤɨɧɨɞɚɜɱɨɜɫɬɚɧɨɜɥɟɧɿɧɚɧɚɰɿɨ -ɧɚɥɶɧɨɦɭ ɪɿɜɧɿ ɿɧɜɟɫɬɢɰɿɣɧɿ ɨɛɦɟɠɟɧɧɹ ɫɬɜɨɪɸɸɬɶ ɫɬɢ -ɦɭɥɞɥɹɿɧɫɬɢɬɭɰɿɣɧɢɯɿɧɜɟɫɬɨɪɿɜɜɤɥɚɞɚɬɢɤɨɲɬɢ ɜɨɛɥɿ
-ɝɚɰɿʀ ɡ ɧɢɡɶɤɢɦɢ ɤɪɟɞɢɬɧɢɦɢ ɪɢɡɢɤɚɦɢ ɬɚ ɬɪɢɜɚɥɢɦɢ ɫɬɪɨɤɚɦɢɩɨɝɚɲɟɧɧɹ, ɬɨɛɬɨɜɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɿɰɿɧɧɿɩɚɩɟɪɢ.
ɋɩɟɤɭɥɹɧɬɢ ɬɚ ɚɪɛɿɬɪɚɠɟɪɢ ɬɚɤɨɠ ɜɢɤɨɪɢɫɬɨɜɭɸɬɶ ɪɢɧɤɢɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɢɯɰɿɧɧɢɯɩɚɩɟɪɿɜɞɥɹɩɪɢɣɧɹɬɬɹɩɨɡɢɰɿɣ ɧɚɪɿɜɧɿɩɪɨɰɟɧɬɧɢɯɫɬɚɜɨɤ. Ɉɞɧɿɽɸɡɩɪɢɱɢɧɰɶɨɝɨɽɬɟ, ɳɨɦɨɠɧɚ ɲɜɢɞɤɨɿ ɞɟɲɟɜɨ ɜɿɞɤɪɢɜɚɬɢɿɡɚɤɪɢɜɚɬɢ ɩɨ -ɡɢɰɿʀɜɥɿɤɜɿɞɧɢɯɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɢɯɰɿɧɧɢɯɩɚɩɟɪɚɯ, ɜɬ.ɱ. ɜɢɤɨ -ɪɢɫɬɨɜɭɜɚɬɢɪɢɧɤɢɪɟɩɨ.
ɉɨ-ɩ'ɹɬɟ, ɆɊȾɐɉɩɪɨɞɭɤɭɽ "ɦɚɣɠɟɝɪɨɲɿ". Ⱦɟɪɠɚɜɧɿ ɰɿɧɧɿ ɩɚɩɟɪɢ ɽ ɮɚɤɬɢɱɧɨ ɡɚɦɿɧɧɢɤɚɦɢ ɜɚɥɸɬɢ ɤɪɚʀɧɢ -ɟɦɿɬɟɧɬɚ. ȼ ɤɨɪɨɬɤɨɫɬɪɨɤɨɜɨɦɭ ɩɟɪɿɨɞɿ ɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɿ ɰɿɧɧɿ ɩɚɩɟɪɢɦɚɸɬɶɧɢɡɶɤɢɣɪɢɧɤɨɜɢɣɪɢɡɢɤɿ, ɬɚɤɢɦɱɢɧɨɦ, ɽ ɧɚɞɿɣɧɢɦ ɡɚɫɨɛɨɦ ɡɛɟɪɟɠɟɧɧɹ ɜɚɪɬɨɫɬɿ. əɤ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬ, ɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɿ ɰɿɧɧɿ ɩɚɩɟɪɢ ɦɨɠɭɬɶ ɛɭɬɢ ɹɤɿɫɧɢɦ ɜɢɞɨɦ ɡɚ -ɫɬɚɜɢ, ɨɫɨɛɥɢɜɨ ɜ ɭɝɨɞɚɯ ɡ ɩɿɞɬɪɢɦɤɢ ɥɿɤɜɿɞɧɨɫɬɿ. Ⱦɟɪ -ɠɚɜɧɿ ɰɿɧɧɿɩɚɩɟɪɢɩɪɨɜɿɞɧɢɯɤɪɚʀɧ ɫɜɿɬɭɞɚɸɬɶɜɩɟɜɧɟ -ɧɿɫɬɶ ɭɡɛɟɪɟɠɟɧɧɿ ɤɨɲɬɿɜ, ɨɫɨɛɥɢɜɨɤɚɡɧɚɱɟɣɫɶɤɿ ɰɿɧɧɿ ɩɚɩɟɪɢɋɒȺ, ɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɿɰɿɧɧɿɩɚɩɟɪɢɇɿɦɟɱɱɢɧɢ ɬɚɞɟɪ -ɠɚɜɧɿɰɿɧɧɿɩɚɩɟɪɢɿɧɲɢɯɫɬɚɛɿɥɶɧɢɯɤɪɚʀɧȯɜɪɨɩɢ, ɞɟɪ -ɠɚɜɧɿɰɿɧɧɿɩɚɩɟɪɢəɩɨɧɿʀ.
ɓɨɠɞɨɚɤɬɢɜɧɨɫɬɿɤɪɚʀɧɧɚɆɊȾɐɉ, ɬɨɜɚɪɬɨɜɿɞɡɧɚ -ɱɢɬɢɧɚɫɬɭɩɧɿɨɫɨɛɥɢɜɨɫɬɿɜɩɪɨɞɨɜɠɨɫɬɚɧɧɿɯɞɟɫɹɬɢɥɿɬɶ:
1) Ɉɫɧɨɜɧɢɦɢ ɝɪɚɜɰɹɦɢ ɧɚ ɰɶɨɦɭ ɪɢɧɤɭ, ɨɫɨɛɥɢɜɨ ɧɚ ɫɬɚɞɿʀɣɨɝɨ ɮɨɪɦɭɜɚɧɧɹ, ɛɭɥɢ ɤɪɚʀɧɢȯɜɪɨɩɢɬɚɄɚ -ɧɚɞɚ. ɑɚɫɬɤɚɜɢɩɭɫɤɭɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɢɯɛɨɪɝɨɜɢɯɰɿɧɧɢɯɩɚɩɟ -ɪɿɜɭɪɹɞɿɜɰɢɯɤɪɚʀɧɫɤɥɚɞɚɥɚɫɬɚɧɨɦɧɚɝɪɭɞɟɧɶ 1993 ɪ. ɩɨɧɚɞ 65%. ȱ ɨɫɧɨɜɧɢɦɢ ɤɪɚʀɧɚɦɢ – ɩɨɡɢɱɚɥɶɧɢɤɚɦɢ ɛɭɥɢ Ʉɚɧɚɞɚ, ɒɜɟɰɿɹ, ȱɬɚɥɿɹ, Ɏɿɧɥɹɧɞɿɹ, Ⱥɜɫɬɪɿɹ, Ⱦɚɧɿɹ, ȼɟɥɢɤɚ Ȼɪɢɬɚɧɿɹ. ɇɿɦɟɱɱɢɧɚɬɚɎɪɚɧɰɿɹɫɬɚɥɢɚɤɬɢɜɧɢ -ɦɢɭɱɚɫɧɢɤɚɦɢɆɊȾɐɉɥɢɲɟɡɝɨɞɨɦ – ɭ 1998 – 1999 ɪ. ɋɒȺɧɿɤɨɥɢ ɧɟɞɨɦɿɧɭɜɚɥɢɧɚɰɶɨɦɭɪɢɧɤɭɬɚɩɨɫɿɞɚɥɢ ɞɭɠɟ ɧɢɡɶɤɿ ɩɨɡɢɰɿʀ: ʀɯ ɡɚɩɨɡɢɱɟɧɧɹ ɞɨɫɿ ɧɟ ɩɟɪɟɜɢɳɭ -ɜɚɥɢ 5 ɦɥɪɞ. ɞɨɥ. ɋɒȺ.
2) ɑɚɫɬɤɚ ɪɨɡɜɢɧɭɬɢɯ ɤɪɚʀɧ ɬɪɚɞɢɰɿɣɧɨ ɽ ɞɨɦɿɧɭɸ -ɱɨɸɧɚɰɶɨɦɭɪɢɧɤɭ, ɯɨɱɚ, ɡɜɢɱɚɣɧɨ, ɡɚɨɫɬɚɧɧɿ 20 ɪɨɤɿɜ ɜɨɧɚɡɧɚɱɧɨɡɧɢɡɢɥɚɫɹ. əɤɳɨɭɝɪɭɞɧɿ 1993 ɪ. ɜɨɧɚɫɬɚ -ɧɨɜɢɥɚ 74,85%, ɬɨɭɝɪɭɞɧɿ 2012 ɪ. ɥɢɲɟ 54,91%. ȼɨɞ -ɧɨɱɚɫ, ɧɟɦɨɠɧɚɫɤɚɡɚɬɢ, ɳɨɿɫɧɭɽɫɬɚɥɚɬɟɧɞɟɧɰɿɹɞɨʀʀ ɡɧɢɠɟɧɧɹ. Ɍɚɤ, ɞɿɣɫɧɨ ɩɨɱɢɧɚɸɱɢ ɡ ɝɪɭɞɧɹ 1993 ɪ. ɞɨ ɛɟɪɟɡɧɹ 2001 ɪ. ɭɪɹɞɢɪɨɡɜɢɧɭɬɢɯɤɪɚʀɧɩɨɫɬɭɩɨɜɨɡɦɟ -ɧɲɭɜɚɥɢɡɚɛɨɪɝɨɜɚɧɿɫɬɶɧɚɦɿɠɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɦɭɪɿɜɧɿ, ɿʀʀɱɚɫ -ɬɤɚɧɚɜɿɬɶɫɬɚɧɨɜɢɥɚɦɟɧɲɟ 50%. ȼɨɞɧɨɱɚɫ, ɩɨɱɢɧɚɸɱɢ ɡ ɝɪɭɞɧɹ 2001 ɪ. ɿ ɞɨ ɱɟɪɜɧɹ 2009 ɪ., ɜɨɧɢ ɩɨɫɬɭɩɨɜɨ ɧɚɪɨɳɭɜɚɥɢ ɫɜɨɸ ɚɤɬɢɜɧɿɫɬɶ ɭ ɡɚɩɨɡɢɱɟɧɧɿ ɤɨɲɬɿɜ ɧɚ ɦɿɠɧɚɪɨɞɧɢɯɪɢɧɤɚɯ. Ɉɞɧɚɤ, ɛɨɪɝɨɜɿɤɪɢɡɢɤɪɚʀɧȯɜɪɨɩɢ ɫɭɬɬɽɜɨɩɨɯɢɬɧɭɥɢɩɨɡɢɰɿʀɪɨɡɜɢɧɭɬɢɯɤɪɚʀɧ – ɩɨɡɢɱɚɥɶ -ɧɢɤɿɜɧɚɆɊȾɐɉ.
3) Ʉɪɢɡɢ ɧɚ ɆɊȾɐɉ, ɹɤ ɩɪɚɜɢɥɨ, ɧɟ ɽ ɫɩɨɧɬɚɧɧɢɦ ɹɜɢɳɟɦ (ɪɢɫ. 1). ɇɚɩɪɢɤɥɚɞ, ɭɪɹɞɢ ȱɬɚɥɿʀ ɬɚȱɫɩɚɧɿʀ ɡɚɜ -ɠɞɢ ɛɭɥɢ ɚɤɬɢɜɧɢɦɢ ɭɱɚɫɧɢɤɚɦɢ ɆɊȾɐɉ, ɚ ɭɪɹɞ ȱɬɚɥɿʀ ɬɪɚɞɢɰɿɣɧɨ ɩɨɫɿɞɚɜ ɩɪɨɜɿɞɧɿɩɨɡɢɰɿʀɭɜɢɩɭɫɤɭ ɦɿɠɧɚɪɨɞ -ɧɢɯ ɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɢɯ ɰɿɧɧɢɯ ɩɚɩɟɪɿɜ. Ɉɞɧɚɤ, ɦɨɠɭɬɶ ɛɭɬɢɜɢ -ɤɥɸɱɟɧɧɹ, ɳɨ ɦɨɠɧɚ ɩɪɨɞɟɦɨɧɫɬɪɭɜɚɬɢ ɧɚ ɩɪɢɤɥɚɞɿ ɨɫɬɚɧɧɿɯɩɨɞɿɣɭɉɨɪɬɭɝɚɥɿʀ, ȱɫɩɚɧɿʀ, ȽɪɟɰɿʀɬɚɧɚɄɿɩɪɿ, ɤɨ -ɥɢ ɮɚɤɬɢɱɧɨ, ɡɚɛɨɪɝɨɜɚɧɿɫɬɶɰɢɯ ɤɪɚʀɧ ɡɪɨɫɬɚɥɚɞɨɫɢɬɶ ɲɜɢɞɤɨ, ɧɟɪɿɜɧɨɦɿɪɧɨɬɚɧɟɜɿɞɩɨɜɿɞɚɥɚɨɛɫɹɝɚɦȼȼɉ:
ɩɨ-ɩɟɪɲɟ, ɲɜɢɞɤɿɫɬɶɭɧɚɪɨɳɟɧɧɿ ɛɨɪɝɭ: Ƚɪɟɰɿɹ – ɭ ɜɟɪɟɫɧɿ 2008 ɪ. ɡɚɛɨɪɝɨɜɚɧɿɫɬɶɫɤɥɚɞɚɥɚ 57,77 ɦɥɪɞ. ɞɨɥ. ɋɒȺ, ɚɜɠɟɱɟɪɟɡɪɿɤ 109,46 ɦɥɪɞ. ɞɨɥ. ɋɒȺ, ɉɨɪɬɭɝɚ -ɥɿɹ – ɭɝɪɭɞɧɿ 2008 ɪ. 30,48 ɦɥɪɞ. ɞɨɥ. ɋɒȺ, ɚɡɚɪɿɤ – 44,40 ɦɥɪɞ. ɞɨɥ. ɋɒȺ, ȱɫɩɚɧɿɹ – ɭ ɜɟɪɟɫɧɿ 2008 ɪ. 65,97 ɦɥɪɞ. ɞɨɥ. ɋɒȺ, ɚɡɚɪɿɤ – 80,62 ɦɥɪɞ. ɞɨɥ. ɋɒȺ. ɉɪɨɬɟ, ɧɚɣɫɤɥɚɞɧɿɲɚɫɢɬɭɚɰɿɹɜɢɧɢɤɥɚɧɚɄɿɩɪɿ: ɭɛɟɪɟ -ɡɧɿ 2009 ɪ. ɡɚɛɨɪɝɨɜɚɧɿɫɬɶ ɫɤɥɚɞɚɥɚ 1,55 ɦɥɪɞ. ɞɨɥ. ɋɒȺ, ɚɡɚɪɿɤ – 5,14 ɦɥɪɞ. ɞɨɥ. ɋɒȺ.
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ɩɨ-ɬɪɟɬɽ, ɧɟɜɿɞɩɨɜɿɞɧɿɫɬɶ ɡɪɨɫɬɚɧɧɹ
ɡɚɛɨɪɝɨɜɚɧɨ-ɫɬɿ ɡɚ ɦɿɠɧɚɪɨɞɧɢɦɢ ɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɢɦɢ ɰɿɧɧɢɦɢ ɩɚɩɟɪɚɦɢ
ɡɪɨɫɬɚɧɧɸɬɚɨɛɫɹɝɭ ȼȼɉ. Ɇɨɠɟɦɨ ɧɚɜɟɫɬɢɥɢɲɟ ɩɪɢ
-ɤɥɚɞ Ƚɪɟɰɿʀ ɬɚ ɇɿɦɟɱɱɢɧɢ: ɫɬɚɧɨɦ ɧɚ ɜɟɪɟɫɟɧɶ 2009 ɪ.
ɛɨɪɝ ɇɿɦɟɱɱɢɧɢ ɧɚ ɆɊȾɐɉ ɫɤɥɚɞɚɜ 139,47 ɦɥɪɞ. ɞɨɥ.
ɋɒȺ, ɬɨɛɬɨ ɩɟɪɟɜɢɳɭɜɚɜ ɛɨɪɝ Ƚɪɟɰɿʀ ɥɢɲɟ ɧɚ 30 ɦɥɪɞ. ɞɨɥ.
ɋɒȺ, ɿɰɟɩɪɢɬɨɦɭ, ɳɨɨɛɫɹɝɢȼȼɉɰɢɯɞɜɨɯɤɪɚʀɧɫɭɬ
-ɬɽɜɨ ɪɿɡɧɹɬɶɫɹ. 0,00 2,00 4,00 6,00 8,00 10,00 12,00 14,00 16,00 ȼɟ ɪ ,9 3 Ȼɟɪ ,9 4 ȼɟ ɪ ,9 4 Ȼɟɪ ,9 5 ȼɟ ɪ ,9 5 Ȼɟɪ ,9 6 ȼɟ ɪ ,9 6 Ȼɟɪ ,9 7 ȼɟ ɪ ,9 7 Ȼɟɪ ,9 8 ȼɟ ɪ ,9 8 Ȼɟɪ ,9 9 ȼɟ ɪ ,9 9 Ȼɟɪ ,0 0 ȼɟ ɪ ,0 0 Ȼɟɪ ,0 1 ȼɟ ɪ ,0 1 Ȼɟɪ ,0 2 ȼɟ ɪ ,0 2 Ȼɟɪ ,0 3 ȼɟ ɪ ,0 3 Ȼɟɪ ,0 4 ȼɟ ɪ ,0 4 Ȼɟɪ ,0 5 ȼɟ ɪ ,0 5 Ȼɟɪ ,0 6 ȼɟ ɪ ,0 6 Ȼɟɪ ,0 7 ȼɟ ɪ ,0 7 Ȼɟɪ ,0 8 ȼɟ ɪ ,0 8 Ȼɟɪ ,0 9 ȼɟ ɪ ,0 9 Ȼɟɪ ,1 0 ȼɟ ɪ ,1 0 Ȼɟɪ ,1 1 ȼɟ ɪ ,1 1 Ȼɟɪ ,1 2 ȼɟ ɪ ,1 2 0,00 10,00 20,00 30,00 40,00 50,00 60,00 70,00 80,00
Ʉɿɩɪ (ɥɿɜɚ ɜɿɫɶ) Ƚɪɟɰɿɹ (ɥɿɜɚ ɜɿɫɶ) ȱɬɚɥɿɹ (ɥɿɜɚ ɜɿɫɶ)
ȱɫɩɚɧɿɹ (ɥɿɜɚɜɿɫɶ) ɉɨɪɬɭɝɚɥɿɹ (ɥɿɜɚɜɿɫɶ) Ɋɨɡɜɢɧɭɬɿɤɪɚʀɧɢ (ɩɪɚɜɚɜɿɫɶ)
Ɋɢɫ. 1. ȾɢɧɚɦɿɤɚɩɢɬɨɦɨʀɜɚɝɢɡɚɛɨɪɝɨɜɚɧɨɫɬɿɨɤɪɟɦɢɯɤɪɚʀɧȯɜɪɨɩɢɭɡɚɝɚɥɶɧɨɦɭɨɛɫɹɡɿɆɊȾɐɉɡɚ 1993 – 2012 ɪɪ., % * Ⱦɠɟɪɟɥɨ: ɩɨɛɭɞɨɜɚɧɨ ɡɚ ɞɚɧɢɦɢ BIS.
4) Ʉɪɚʀɧɢ, ɳɨ ɪɨɡɜɢɜɚɸɬɶɫɹ, ɨɫɬɚɧɧɿɦ ɱɚɫɨɦ ɽ ɞɭɠɟ ɚɤ-ɬɢɜɧɢɦɢ ɭɱɚɫɧɢɤɚɦɢ ɆɊȾɐɉ. ɉɟɪɟɞɭɫɿɦ, ɤɪɚʀɧɢ, ɳɨ ɪɨɡɜɢ-ɜɚɸɬɶɫɹ, ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɿ ɱɨɬɢɪɦɚ ɨɫɧɨɜɧɢɦɢ ɪɟɝɿɨɧɚɦɢ:
ɩɨ-ɩɟɪɲɟ, ɤɪɚʀɧɢ Ⱥɮɪɢɤɢ ɬɚ Ȼɥɢɡɶɤɢɣ ɋɯɿɞ
ɡɚɣɦɚ-ɸɬɶ ɧɟɡɧɚɱɧɭ ɱɚɫɬɤɭ ɰɶɨɝɨ ɪɢɧɤɭ, ɯɨɱɚ ɜɨɧɚ ɦɚɽ
ɩɨɫɬɿɣ-ɧɭ ɬɟɧɞɟɧɰɿɸ ɞɨ ɡɪɨɫɬɚɧɧɹ. Ɉɫɧɨɜɧɢɦɢ
ɩɨɡɢɱɚɥɶɧɢɤɚ-ɦɢ ɨɫɬɚɧɧɿɦ ɱɚɫɨɦ ɽ ɭɪɹɞɢ ɬɚɤɢɯ ɤɪɚʀɧ, ɹɤ ȱɡɪɚʀɥɶ,
Ʉɚ-ɬɚɪ, ɉȺɊ, ɈȺȿ;
ɩɨ-ɞɪɭɝɟ, ɤɪɚʀɧɢ Ⱥɡɿʀ ɬɚ Ɉɤɟɚɧɿʀ. ɇɚɣɛɿɥɶɲ
ɰɿɤɚɜɢ-ɦɢ ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɧɢɤɚɦɢ ɪɟɝɿɨɧɭ ɽ ȱɧɞɿɹ ɬɚ Ʉɢɬɚɣ. Ɉɞɧɚɤ,
ȱɧ-ɞɿɹ ɠɨɞɧɨɝɨ ɪɚɡɭ ɧɟ ɜɢɯɨɞɢɥɚ ɧɚ ɆɊȾɐɉ. Ʉɢɬɚɣ
ɨɫɬɚɧ-ɧɿɦ ɱɚɫɨɦ ɫɭɬɬɽɜɨ ɧɚɪɨɫɬɢɜ ɫɜɨɸ ɩɪɢɫɭɬɧɿɫɬɶ.
Ɉɫɧɨɜ-ɧɢɦɢ ɩɨɡɢɱɚɥɶɧɢɤɚɦɢ ɨɫɬɚɧɧɿɦ ɱɚɫɨɦ ɽ Ɏɿɥɿɩɩɿɧɢ, ȱɧɞɨ-ɧɟɡɿɹ, Ʉɢɬɚɣ;
ɩɨ-ɬɪɟɬɽ, ɤɪɚʀɧɢ ȯɜɪɨɩɢ, ɱɚɫɬɤɚ ɹɤɢɯ ɧɚ ɆɊȾɐɉ
ɩɟɪɟɜɢɳɭɽ ɱɚɫɬɤɭ ɞɜɨɯ ɩɨɩɟɪɟɞɧɿɯ ɪɟɝɿɨɧɿɜ ɭ ɛɿɥɶɲ, ɧɿɠ
1,6 ɪɚɡɢ. Ɉɫɧɨɜɧɿ ɩɨɡɢɱɚɥɶɧɢɤɢ: ɉɨɥɶɳɚ, Ɍɭɪɟɱɱɢɧɚ,
Ɋɨɫɿɹ, ɍɝɨɪɳɢɧɚ, ɑɟɯɿɹ, ɍɤɪɚʀɧɚ;
ɩɨ-ɱɟɬɜɟɪɬɟ, ɤɪɚʀɧɢ Ʌɚɬɢɧɫɶɤɨʀ Ⱥɦɟɪɢɤɢ ɬɚ
Ʉɚɪɢ-ɛɿɜ, ɨɛɫɹɝɢ ɡɚɛɨɪɝɨɜɚɧɨɫɬɿ ɡɚ ɹɤɢɦɢ ɽ ɦɚɣɠɟ ɬɚɤɢɦɢ ɠ,
ɹɤ ɿ ɤɪɚʀɧ ȯɜɪɨɩɢ ɿ ɫɬɚɧɨɜɥɹɬɶ ɧɚ ɫɶɨɝɨɞɧɿ ɩɨɧɚɞ
250 ɦɥɪɞ. ɞɨɥ. ɋɒȺ. Ɉɫɧɨɜɧɿ ɩɨɡɢɱɚɥɶɧɢɤɢ: (Ȼɪɚɡɢɥɿɹ, Ɇɟɤɫɢɤɚ, Ⱥɪɝɟɧɬɢɧɚ, ȼɟɧɟɫɭɟɥɚ, Ʉɨɥɭɦɛɿɹ).
ȼɢɫɧɨɜɤɢ. Ɍɚɤɢɦ ɱɢɧɨɦ, ɆɊȾɐɉ ɜɿɞɿɝɪɚɽ ɜɚɠɥɢɜɭ
ɪɨɥɶ ɭ ɮɿɧɚɧɫɭɜɚɧɧɿ ɭɪɹɞɿɜ ɤɪɚʀɧ ɭɫɶɨɝɨ ɫɜɿɬɭ ɬɚ ɦɚɽ
ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɫɬɢɤɢ, ɹɤɿ ɞɚɸɬɶ ɲɢɪɨɤɿ ɦɨɠɥɢɜɨɫɬɿ
ɿɧɜɟɫɬɨ-ɪɚɦ ɞɥɹ ɮɨɪɦɭɜɚɧɧɹ ɫɬɪɚɬɟɝɿɣ ɿɧɜɟɫɬɭɜɚɧɧɹ, ɨɪɿɽɧɬɨ
-ɜɚɧɢɯ ɹɤ ɧɚ ɩɿɞɬɪɢɦɚɧɧɹ ɥɿɤɜɿɞɧɨɫɬɿ, ɬɚɤ ɿ ɧɚ ɨɬɪɢɦɚɧɧɹ
ɫɩɟɤɭɥɹɬɢɜɧɢɯɩɪɢɛɭɬɤɿɜ: ɆɊȾɐɉɽɞɠɟɪɟɥɨɦɿɧɞɢɤɚɬɢ
-ɜɧɢɯ ɩɪɨɰɟɧɬɧɢɯ ɫɬɚɜɨɤ ɬɚ ɮɨɪɦɭɜɚɧɧɹ ɰɿɧ ɜ ɰɿɥɨɦɭ ɧɚ
ɪɢɧɤɭɛɨɪɝɨɜɢɯɰɿɧɧɢɯɩɚɩɟɪɿɜ; ɆɊȾɐɉ ɩɪɨɞɭɤɭɽɟɮɟɤ
-ɬɢɜɧɿ ɿɧɫɬɪɭɦɟɧɬɢ ɯɟɞɠɭɜɚɧɧɹ ɪɢɡɢɤɭ ɩɪɨɰɟɧɬɧɢɯ
ɫɬɚ-ɜɨɤ ɡɚ ɤɨɪɩɨɪɚɬɢɜɧɢɦɢ ɨɛɥɿɝɚɰɿɹɦɢ, ɡɚ ɜɢɤɥɸɱɟɧɧɹɦ
ɫɢɬɭɚɰɿʀ ɡ LTCM; ɆɊȾɐɉ ɦɚɽ ɦɨɠɥɢɜɿɫɬɶ ɩɪɨɞɭɤɭɜɚɬɢ
ɥɿɤɜɿɞɧɿɫɬɶɪɢɧɤɭɬɚɡɚɛɟɡɩɟɱɭɜɚɬɢɯɟɞɠɭɜɚɧɧɹɩɪɨɰɟɧ
-ɬɧɢɯ ɫɬɚɜɨɤ ɬɨɳɨ. Ⱥɧɚɥɿɡ ɫɢɬɭɚɰɿʀ ɧɚ ɦɿɠɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɦɭ
ɪɢ-ɧɤɭ ɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɢɯ ɰɿɧɧɢɯ ɩɚɩɟɪɿɜ ɜɩɪɨɞɨɜɠ 1993 – 2012 ɪɪ.
ɡɚɫɜɿɞɱɢɜ, ɳɨ, ɩɨ – ɩɟɪɲɟ, ɧɚ ɪɢɧɤɭ ɞɨɦɿɧɭɸɬɶ
ɪɨɡɜɢ-ɧɟɧɿ ɤɪɚʀɧɢ, ɡɨɤɪɟɦɚ ɡ Ɂɚɯɿɞɧɨʀ ȯɜɪɨɩɢ, Ʉɚɧɚɞɢ ɬɚ ɋɒȺ,
ɯɨɱɚ ɨɫɬɚɧɧɽ ɞɟɫɹɬɢɥɿɬɬɹ ɩɨɡɧɚɱɟɧɟ ɹɤɿɫɧɢɦɢ
ɡɪɭɲɟɧ-ɧɹɦɢ, ɚ ɫɚɦɟ ɩɨɫɬɭɩɨɜɢɦ ɡɚɯɨɩɥɟɧɧɹɦ ɰɶɨɝɨ ɪɢɧɤɭ
ɤɪɚʀ-ɧɚɦɢ, ɳɨ ɪɨɡɜɢɜɚɸɬɶɫɹ, ɨɫɨɛɥɢɜɨ ɤɪɚʀɧɚɦɢ Ʌɚɬɢɧɫɶɤɨʀ
Ⱥɦɟɪɢɤɢ, ɋɯɿɞɧɨʀ ȯɜɪɨɩɢ ɬɚ Ɋɨɫɿʀ, Ʉɢɬɚɸ. ɉɨ-ɞɪɭɝɟ, ɛɨɪ-ɝɨɜɿ ɤɪɢɡɢ ɧɟ ɽ ɫɩɨɧɬɚɧɧɢɦ ɹɜɢɳɟɦ, ɿ, ɹɤ ɩɪɚɜɢɥɨ,
ɨɛɭɦɨ-ɜɥɸɸɬɶɫɹ ɧɟɚɞɟɤɜɚɬɧɢɦ ɡɪɨɫɬɚɧɧɸ ȼȼɉ ɧɚɪɨɳɟɧɧɹɦ
ɛɨɪɝɭ. ȱ ɡɜɢɱɚɣɧɨ, ʀɯ ɜɩɥɢɜ ɽ ɧɟɝɚɬɢɜɧɢɦ ɧɟ ɬɿɥɶɤɢ ɞɥɹ
ɪɨɡɜɢɬɤɭ ɦɿɠɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɝɨ ɪɢɧɤɭ ɞɟɪɠɚɜɧɢɯ ɰɿɧɧɢɯ ɩɚɩɟɪɿɜ,
ɚɣɜɰɿɥɨɦɭɦɿɠɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɝɨɪɢɧɤɭɤɚɩɿɬɚɥɿɜ, ɡɜɚɠɚɸɱɢɧɚ
ɧɚɜɟɞɟɧɿ ɫɭɬɧɿɫɬɶ ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɫɬɢɤɢ ɰɶɨɝɨ ɪɢɧɤɭ.
ɋɩɢɫɨɤɜɢɤɨɪɢɫɬɚɧɨʀɥɿɬɟɪɚɬɭɪɢ:
1. ȼɟɪɫɚɥɶ ɇ.ȱ. Ɉɫɨɛɥɢɜɨɫɬɿɮɭɧɤɰɿɨɧɭɜɚɧɧɹ ɦɿɠɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɝɨ ɪɢɧɤɭ
ɛɨɪɝɨɜɢɯɰɿɧɧɢɯɩɚɩɟɪɿɜ / ɇ.ȱ. ȼɟɪɫɚɥɶ // ɁɛɿɪɧɢɤɧɚɭɤɨɜɢɯɩɪɚɰɶȾȿɌɍɌ.
ɋɟɪɿɹ "ȿɤɨɧɨɦɿɤɚɿɭɩɪɚɜɥɿɧɧɹ". – 2012. – ȼɢɩ. 19. – ɋ. 317 – 325.
2. ɐɿɧɧɿ ɩɚɩɟɪɢ [ɩɿɞɪɭɱɧɢɤ] / ȼ.Ⱦ. Ȼɚɡɢɥɟɜɢɱ, ȼ.Ɇ. ɒɟɥɭɞɶɤɨ,
ɇ.ȼ. Ʉɨɜɬɭɧɬɚɿɧ.; ɡɚɪɟɞ. ȼ.Ⱦ. Ȼɚɡɢɥɟɜɢɱɚ. – Ʉ. : Ɂɧɚɧɧɹ, 2011. – 1094 ɫ.
3. Benzie R. The development of the international bond market / R. Benzie // BIS Economic Papers. – No. 32 – January 1992. – Basle, Bank for International Settlements. – 92 p.
4. BIS Quarterly Review, December 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010:
[ȿɥɟɤɬɪɨɧɧɢɣɪɟɫɭɪɫ]. – Ɋɟɠɢɦɞɨɫɬɭɩɭ: http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf.
5. Bond Markets and Prices: [ȿɥɟɤɬɪɨɧɧɢɣɪɟɫɭɪɫ]. – Ɋɟɠɢɦɞɨɫɬɭɩɭ: http://www.investinginbondseurope.org/Pages/BondMarketsAndPrices.aspx ?folder_id=510.
6. International bond markets: [ȿɥɟɤɬɪɨɧɧɢɣɪɟɫɭɪɫ]. – Ɋɟɠɢɦɞɨɫɬɭ -ɩɭ: http://www.bauer.uh.edu/rsusmel/7386/ln12.pdf.
7. International Capital Markets: Developments, Prospects, and Key Policy Issues. By a Staff Team led by Donald J. Mathieson and Garry J. Schinasi. International Monetary Fund August 2001. – [ȿɥɟɤɬɪɨɧɧɢɣɪɟ -ɫɭɪɫ]. – Ɋɟɠɢɦɞɨɫɬɭɩɭ: www.imf.org.
8. Lowenstein R. When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management [ɬɟɤɫɬ] / R. Lowenstein. – Random House Trade Paperbacks, 2001. – 304 p.
9. MacKenzie, D. Long-Term Capital Management and the sociology of arbitrage / D. MacKenzie // Economy and Society Volume. – 2003. – ʋ 3. – P. 349–380.
10. Prasad E. IMF Bonds: Details and Implications / E. Prasad // [ȿɥɟɤ
-ɬɪɨɧɧɢɣ ɪɟɫɭɪɫ]. – Ɋɟɠɢɦ ɞɨɫɬɭɩɭ: http://www.brookings.edu/articles/
2009/0504_IMF_bonds_prasad.aspx.
11. Rose Peter S., Marquis Milton H. Money and Capital Markets
[ɬɟɤɫɬ] / P. S. Rose, M. H. Marquis. – McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2007 – 767 p.
ISSN 1728-2667 dzǸǼǻǼǺǥǸǮ. 12(153)/2013 ~ 13 ~
ɇ. ȼɟɪɫɚɥɶ, ɤɚɧɞ. ɷɤɨɧ. ɧɚɭɤ, ɞɨɰ. ɄɇɍɢɦɟɧɢɌɚɪɚɫɚɒɟɜɱɟɧɤɨ, Ʉɢɟɜ
ɆȿɀȾɍɇȺɊɈȾɇɕɃɊɕɇɈɄȽɈɋɍȾȺɊɋɌȼȿɇɇɕɏɐȿɇɇɕɏȻɍɆȺȽ: ɋɉȿɐɂɎɂɄȺɎɍɇɄɐɂɈɇɂɊɈȼȺɇɂə
Ɋɚɫɤɪɵɬɚɫɩɟɰɢɮɢɤɚɮɭɧɤɰɢɨɧɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹɦɟɠɞɭɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɝɨɪɵɧɤɚɝɨɫɭɞɚɪɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɯɰɟɧɧɵɯɛɭɦɚɝɜɬɟɱɟɧɢɟ 1993 – 2012 ɝɝ.: ɨɫɧɨɜ
-ɧɵɦɢɟɝɨɢɝɪɨɤɚɦɢɹɜɥɹɸɬɫɹɪɚɡɜɢɬɵɟɫɬɪɚɧɵ (ɫɬɪɚɧɵɁɚɩɚɞɧɨɣȿɜɪɨɩɵ, Ʉɚɧɚɞɚ, ɋɒȺ) ɫɭɫɢɥɟɧɢɟɦɪɨɥɢɪɚɡɜɢɜɚɸɳɢɯɫɹɫɬɪɚɧ;
ɧɟɝɚɬɢɜɧɨɟɜɥɢɹɧɢɟɞɨɥɝɨɜɵɯɤɪɢɡɢɫɨɜɧɟɬɨɥɶɤɨɧɚɪɚɡɜɢɬɢɟɦɟɠɞɭɧɚɪɨɞɧɨɝɨɪɵɧɤɚɝɨɫɭɞɚɪɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɯɰɟɧɧɵɯɛɭɦɚɝ, ɧɨɢɦɟɠɞɭɧɚ
-ɪɨɞɧɨɝɨɪɵɧɤɚɤɚɩɢɬɚɥɨɜɜɰɟɥɨɦ; ɞɨɥɝɨɜɵɟɤɪɢɡɢɫɵɧɟɹɜɥɹɸɬɫɹɫɩɨɧɬɚɧɧɵɦɹɜɥɟɧɢɟɦ, ɢ, ɤɚɤɩɪɚɜɢɥɨ, ɜɨɡɧɢɤɚɸɬɜɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɟ
ɧɟɚɞɟɤɜɚɬɧɨɝɨɪɨɫɬɭȼȼɉɧɚɪɚɳɢɜɚɧɢɹɝɨɫɭɞɚɪɫɬɜɟɧɧɨɝɨɞɨɥɝɚ.
Ʉɥɸɱɟɜɵɟɫɥɨɜɚ: ɦɟɠɞɭɧɚɪɨɞɧɵɣɪɵɧɨɤɤɚɩɢɬɚɥɨɜ, ɦɟɠɞɭɧɚɪɨɞɧɵɣɪɵɧɨɤɝɨɫɭɞɚɪɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɯɰɟɧɧɵɯɛɭɦɚɝ, ɝɨɫɭɞɚɪɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɟɰɟɧ
-ɧɵɟɛɭɦɚɝɢ, ɞɨɥɝɨɜɨɣɤɪɢɡɢɫ.
N. Versal, PhD in Economics, Associate Professor Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv
INTERNATIONAL GOVERNMENT SECURITIES: SPECIFIC FUNCTIONING
It's disclosed the features of the international government securities market during 1993 – 2012: main players are the developed countries (Western Europe, Canada, USA) with the increasing role of developing countries; debt crises have the negative impact as on the development of the international government securities market, but also on the international capital market as a whole; debt crises are not a spontaneous phenomenon, and usually occur as a result of inadequate growth in GDP increasing government debt.
Keywords: international capital market, international government securities market, government securities, debt crisis.
ɍȾɄ 330.341 JEL Ɉ 110
Ɂ. Ƚɚɥɭɲɤɚ, ɞ-ɪɟɤɨɧ. ɧɚɭɤ, ɩɪɨɮ., Ɉ. Ʌɭɫɬɟ, ɚɫɩ.
ɑɟɪɧɿɜɟɰɶɤɢɣɧɚɰɿɨɧɚɥɶɧɢɣɭɧɿɜɟɪɫɢɬɟɬɿɦɟɧɿɘɪɿɹɎɟɞɶɤɨɜɢɱɚ, ɑɟɪɧɿɜɰɿ
ǮǻǮǹǥǵ
ǰǽǹǶǰȁ
DZǼǿǽǼDzǮǾǿȊǸǼDZǼ
ǺdzǻȀǮǹǥȀdzȀȁ
ǻǮ
dzǸǼǻǼǺǥȅǻǶǷ
ǾǼǵǰǶȀǼǸ
ǸǾǮǦǻǶ
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ǸǼǾdzǹȍȄǥǷǻǼ
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ǾdzDZǾdzǿǥǷǻǶǷ
ǽǥDzȃǥDz
ɍɫɬɚɬɬɿɜɢɡɧɚɱɟɧɨɪɨɥɶɝɨɫɩɨɞɚɪɫɶɤɨɝɨ ɦɟɧɬɚɥɿɬɟɬɭɹɤɜɚɠɥɢɜɨɝɨɱɢɧɧɢɤɚɫɨɰɿɚɥɶɧɨ-ɟɤɨɧɨɦɿɱɧɢɯɬɪɚɧɫɮɨɪ
-ɦɚɰɿɣ, ɩɪɨɚɧɚɥɿɡɨɜɚɧɨɦɟɬɨɞɢɤɭɚɧɚɥɿɡɭɦɟɧɬɚɥɶɧɢɯɜɿɞɦɿɧɧɨɫɬɟɣ, ɩɪɨɜɟɞɟɧɨɤɨɪɟɥɹɰɿɣɧɨ-ɪɟɝɪɟɫɿɣɧɢɣɚɧɚɥɿɡɡɚɥɟɠ
-ɧɨɫɬɿɦɟɧɬɚɥɶɧɢɯɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɫɬɢɤɫɭɫɩɿɥɶɫɬɜɚ ɬɚɩɨɤɚɡɧɢɤɿɜɟɤɨɧɨɦɿɱɧɨɝɨɪɨɡɜɢɬɤɭɤɪɚʀɧɢ, ɨɤɪɟɫɥɟɧɨɩɟɪɫɩɟɤɬɢɜɢ
ɩɨɞɚɥɶɲɢɯɞɨɫɥɿɞɠɟɧɶɰɿɽʀɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɚɬɢɤɢ.
Ʉɥɸɱɨɜɿɫɥɨɜɚ: ɝɨɫɩɨɞɚɪɫɶɤɢɣɦɟɧɬɚɥɿɬɟɬ, ɫɨɰɿɚɥɶɧɨ-ɟɤɨɧɨɦɿɱɧɚɩɨɥɿɬɢɤɚ, ɿɧɧɨɜɚɰɿɣɧɢɣɪɨɡɜɢɬɨɤ, ɦɿɠɧɚɪɨɞɧɿɿɧ
-ɞɟɤɫɢɟɮɟɤɬɢɜɧɨɫɬɿɟɤɨɧɨɦɿɤɢ, ɤɨɪɟɥɹɰɿɣɧɚɡɚɥɟɠɧɿɫɬɶ.
ɉɨɫɬɚɧɨɜɤɚ ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɢ ɭɡɚɝɚɥɶɧɨɦɭ ɜɢɝɥɹɞɿ ɬɚ
ʀʀɡɜ'ɹɡɨɤɿɡɜɚɠɥɢɜɢɦɢɧɚɭɤɨɜɢɦɢ ɱɢɩɪɚɤɬɢɱɧɢɦɢ
ɡɚɜɞɚɧɧɹɦɢ. Ƚɨɫɩɨɞɚɪɫɶɤɢɣɦɟɧɬɚɥɿɬɟɬ ɽɞɨɜɝɨɬɟɪɦɿ
-ɧɨɜɨɸ ɞɟɬɟɪɦɿɧɚɧɬɨɸ ɟɤɨɧɨɦɿɱɧɨʀ ɩɨɜɟɞɿɧɤɢ ɥɸɞɢɧɢ,
ɱɢɧɧɢɤɨɦ ɫɭɫɩɿɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɩɪɨɝɪɟɫɭ ɚɛɨ ɪɟɝɪɟɫɭ, ɡɚɥɟɠɧɨ
ɜɿɞɬɨɝɨ, ɹɤɿɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɫɬɢɤɢɽɞɨɦɿɧɭɸɱɢɦɢɜɦɟɧɬɚɥɶ
-ɧɿɣ ɫɬɪɭɤɬɭɪɿ ɧɚɰɿʀ. ȼɿɧ ɜɢɹɜɥɹɽ ɜɩɥɢɜ ɧɚ ɫɨɰɿɚɥɶɧɨ
-ɟɤɨɧɨɦɿɱɧɿɬɪɚɧɫɮɨɪɦɚɰɿʀɧɚ ɦɿɤɪɨ-, ɦɟɡɨ- ɬɚ ɦɚɤɪɨɪɿ
-ɜɧɹɯ, ɳɨɩɪɨɹɜɥɹɽɬɶɫɹɭɮɨɪɦɭɜɚɧɧɿɦɨɬɢɜɿɜɬɚɦɨɞɟ
-ɥɟɣɩɨɜɟɞɿɧɤɢ ɩɪɚɰɿɜɧɢɤɿɜ, ɜɢɡɧɚɱɚɽ ɪɿɜɟɧɶ ʀɯɧɶɨʀɟɤɨ
-ɧɨɦɿɱɧɨʀɚɤɬɢɜɧɨɫɬɿ; ɞɨɡɜɨɥɹɽ ɫɮɨɪɦɭɜɚɬɢɪɿɡɧɿɩɿɞɯɨ
-ɞɢɞɨɭɩɪɚɜɥɿɧɧɹ, ɫɬɢɥɿɜɤɟɪɿɜɧɢɰɬɜɚ, ɮɭɧɤɰɿɨɧɭɜɚɧɧɹ
ɿ ɪɨɡɜɢɬɤɭ ɨɪɝɚɧɿɡɚɰɿɣɧɨʀ ɫɬɪɭɤɬɭɪɢ ɩɿɞɩɪɢɽɦɫɬɜɚ; ɩɿɞ
ɜɩɥɢɜɨɦ ɝɨɫɩɨɞɚɪɫɶɤɨɝɨ ɦɟɧɬɚɥɿɬɟɬɭ ɜɿɞɛɭɜɚɸɬɶɫɹ ɩɪɨɰɟɫɢɫɨɰɿɚɥɿɡɚɰɿʀ ɟɤɨɧɨɦɿɤɢɤɪɚʀɧɢ, ɜɿɧ ɫɩɪɢɹɽ ɟɤɨ
-ɧɨɦɿɱɧɿɣɿɧɬɟɝɪɚɰɿʀɤɪɚʀɧɢ, ɮɨɪɦɭɜɚɧɧɸʀʀɤɨɧɤɭɪɟɧɬɧɨ
-ɝɨɩɨɬɟɧɰɿɚɥɭ, ɜɢɡɧɚɱɚɽɪɿɜɟɧɶ ʀʀɟɤɨɧɨɦɿɱɧɨʀ ɫɜɨɛɨɞɢ.
ɇɚɧɚɲɩɨɝɥɹɞ, ɰɟɚɤɬɭɚɥɿɡɭɽɧɟɨɛɯɿɞɧɿɫɬɶɞɿɚɝɧɨɫɬɢɤɢ
ɦɟɧɬɚɥɶɧɢɯɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɫɬɢɤ ɧɚɫɟɥɟɧɧɹ ɤɨɠɧɨʀ ɤɨɧɤɪɟɬ
-ɧɨʀ ɤɪɚʀɧɢ, ɜɢɹɜɥɟɧɧɹ ɞɨɦɿɧɭɸɱɢɯ ɭ ɫɭɫɩɿɥɶɫɬɜɿ ɫɬɟ
-ɪɟɨɬɢɩɿɜ ɿ ɰɿɧɧɨɫɬɟɣ. Ɍɿɥɶɤɢ ɭ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɿ ɬɚɤɢɯ ɞɨɫɥɿ
-ɞɠɟɧɶ ɨɬɪɢɦɭɽɬɶɫɹ ɿɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɿɹ ɩɪɨ ɪɟɚɥɶɧɨ ɿɫɧɭɸɱɿ ɧɟɮɨɪɦɚɥɶɧɿ ɩɪɚɜɢɥɚ, ɹɤɚ ɭ ɩɨɞɚɥɶɲɨɦɭ ɦɨɠɟ ɛɭɬɢ
ɜɢɤɨɪɢɫɬɚɧɚ ɞɥɹ ɪɨɡɪɨɛɤɢ ɫɬɪɚɬɟɝɿɱɧɢɯ ɿ ɬɚɤɬɢɱɧɢɯ ɤɪɨɤɿɜɫɨɰɿɚɥɶɧɨ-ɟɤɨɧɨɦɿɱɧɨʀɩɨɥɿɬɢɤɢɞɟɪɠɚɜɢ.
Ⱥɧɚɥɿɡɨɫɬɚɧɧɿɯɞɨɫɥɿɞɠɟɧɶɬɚɩɭɛɥɿɤɚɰɿɣ, ɜɹɤɢɯ
ɡɚɩɨɱɚɬɤɨɜɚɧɨɪɨɡɜ'ɹɡɚɧɧɹɞɚɧɨʀ ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɢ ɿɧɚɹɤɿ
ɫɩɢɪɚɸɬɶɫɹ ɚɜɬɨɪɢ. ȼɩɥɢɜ ɫɩɟɰɢɮɿɱɧɨʀɪɨɥɿ ɤɭɥɶɬɭɪ
-ɧɨ ɦɨɬɢɜɨɜɚɧɢɯ ɧɨɪɦ ɭ ɪɢɧɤɨɜɨɦɭ ɫɟɪɟɞɨɜɢɳɿ ɞɨɫɥɿ
-ɞɠɭɜɚɥɢȽ. ɏɨɮɫɬɟɞɟ, ɒ. ɒɜɚɪɰ, Ɋ. Ʌɶɸʀɫ, ɑ. ɏɚɦɩɞɟɧ
-Ɍɟɪɧɟɪ, Ɏ. Ɍɪɨɦɩɟɧɚɚɪɫ, Ƚ. Ɍɪɿɚɧɞɿɫ. ɍ ɜɿɬɱɢɡɧɹɧɿɣ ɬɚ
ɪɨɫɿɣɫɶɤɿɣɧɚɭɰɿɜɱɟɧɢɦɢȽ. Ʉɨɦɢɯ, Ɍ. Ƚɚɣɞɚɣ, Ɉ. Ȼɨɧɞɚ
-ɪɟɧɤɨ, Ⱥ. Ƚɪɢɰɟɧɤɨɦ, Ƚ. ɉɢɥɢɩɟɧɤɨ, Ɋ. ɇɭɪɽɽɜɢɦ,
ɘ. Ʌɚɬɨɜɢɦ, Ɍ. ȼɭɤɨɥɨɜɨɸ, Ⱥ. ɒɚɫɬɿɬɤɨ ɚɤɬɢɜɧɨ ɜɢɜɱɚ
-ɥɢɫɹɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɢɝɨɫɩɨɞɚɪɫɶɤɨɝɨɦɟɧɬɚɥɿɬɟɬɭɬɚɨɫɧɨɜɧɢɯ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɿɜɣɨɝɨɮɨɪɦɭɜɚɧɧɹ.
ȼɢɞɿɥɟɧɧɹɧɟɜɢɪɿɲɟɧɢɯɪɚɧɿɲɟɱɚɫɬɢɧɡɚɝɚɥɶɧɨʀ
ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɢ, ɤɨɬɪɢɦɩɪɢɫɜɹɱɭɽɬɶɫɹ ɞɚɧɚ ɫɬɚɬɬɹ. ɋɥɿɞ
ɡɚɭɜɚɠɢɬɢ, ɳɨ ɞɨɬɟɩɟɪ ɧɟɞɨɫɬɚɬɧɶɨ ɪɨɡɪɨɛɥɟɧɨɸ ɽ
ɦɟɬɨɞɨɥɨɝɿɹ ɨɰɿɧɤɢ ɜɩɥɢɜɭɝɨɫɩɨɞɚɪɫɶɤɨɝɨ ɦɟɧɬɚɥɿɬɟɬɭ ɧɚɫɨɰɿɚɥɶɧɨ-ɟɤɨɧɨɦɿɱɧɢɣɪɨɡɜɢɬɨɤɞɟɪɠɚɜɢ.
Ɇɟɬɨɸ ɫɬɚɬɬɿ ɽ ɜɢɜɱɟɧɧɹ ɜɡɚɽɦɨɡɚɥɟɠɧɨɫɬɿɩɨɤɚɡ
-ɧɢɤɿɜɟɤɨɧɨɦɿɱɧɨɝɨɪɨɡɜɢɬɤɭɞɟɪɠɚɜɢɬɚɨɫɧɨɜɧɢɯɫɤɥɚ
-ɞɨɜɢɯ ɝɨɫɩɨɞɚɪɫɶɤɨɝɨɦɟɧɬɚɥɿɬɟɬɭ ɫɭɫɩɿɥɶɫɬɜɚ ɲɥɹɯɨɦ ɭɞɨɫɤɨɧɚɥɟɧɧɹɦɟɬɨɞɨɥɨɝɿʀʀʀɨɰɿɧɤɢ.
ȼɢɤɥɚɞ ɨɫɧɨɜɧɨɝɨ ɦɚɬɟɪɿɚɥɭ ɞɨɫɥɿɞɠɟɧɧɹ ɡ ɩɨ
-ɜɧɢɦ ɨɛʉɪɭɧɬɭɜɚɧɧɹɦɨɬɪɢɦɚɧɢɯ ɧɚɭɤɨɜɢɯ ɪɟɡɭɥɶ
-ɬɚɬɿɜ. ɇɚɧɚɲɩɨɝɥɹɞ, ɞɥɹɨɰɿɧɤɢɜɩɥɢɜɭɝɨɫɩɨɞɚɪɫɶɤɨɝɨ
ɦɟɧɬɚɥɿɬɟɬɭ ɧɚ ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪ ɫɨɰɿɚɥɶɧɨ-ɟɤɨɧɨɦɿɱɧɢɯ ɩɟɪɟ
-ɬɜɨɪɟɧɶ ɭ ɫɭɫɩɿɥɶɫɬɜɿ ɧɚɣɛɿɥɶɲ ɜɞɚɥɨɸ ɽ ɤɨɧɰɟɩɰɿɹ Ƚ. ɏɨɮɫɬɟɞɟ. Ɉɫɧɨɜɨɸɰɿɽʀ ɦɟɬɨɞɨɥɨɝɿʀɽ ɚɧɚɥɿɡ ɦɟɧɬɚ
-ɥɶɧɢɯɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɫɬɢɤɪɿɡɧɢɯɟɬɧɿɱɧɢɯɝɪɭɩɡɜɢɤɨɪɢɫɬɚɧ
-ɧɹɦ ɮɨɪɦɚɥɿɡɨɜɚɧɢɯ ɦɟɬɨɞɿɜ. Ƚ. ɏɨɮɫɬɟɞɟ ɜɢɞɿɥɢɜ 4 ɨɫɧɨɜɧɿ ɩɨɤɚɡɧɢɤɢ, ɡɚ ɞɨɩɨɦɨɝɨɸ ɹɤɢɯ ɦɨɠɭɬɶ ɛɭɬɢ
ɨɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɡɨɜɚɧɿ ɬɚ ɨɩɢɫɚɧɿ ɩɚɧɭɸɱɿ ɰɿɧɧɿɫɧɿ ɫɢɫɬɟɦɢ ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɧɢɤɿɜɪɿɡɧɢɯɤɪɚʀɧɿɟɬɧɿɱɧɢɯɝɪɭɩ, ɳɨɞɚɽ ɦɨɠ
-ɥɢɜɿɫɬɶ ɜɫɬɚɧɨɜɢɬɢ ɩɨɥɨɠɟɧɧɹ ɛɭɞɶ-ɹɤɨʀ ɤɪɚʀɧɢ ɧɚ
ɡɚɝɚɥɶɧɨɫɜɿɬɨɜɿɣ ɦɟɧɬɚɥɶɧɿɣɤɚɪɬɿ [10]: ɞɢɫɬɚɧɰɿɹɜɥɚɞɢ (Power Distance – PDI); ɿɧɞɢɜɿɞɭɚɥɿɡɦ (Individualism – IDV); ɦɭɠɧɿɫɬɶ (Masculinity – MAS); ɩɪɚɝɧɟɧɧɹ ɭɧɢɤɧɭɬɢ
ɧɟɜɢɡɧɚɱɟɧɨɫɬɿ (Uncertainty Avoidance – UAI); ɞɨɜɝɨ
-ɫɬɪɨɤɨɜɚɨɪɿɽɧɬɚɰɿɹ (Long-Term Orientation – LTO).
ȼɫɿɩɨɤɚɡɧɢɤɢȽ.ɏɨɮɫɬɟɞɟɡɚɡɜɢɱɚɣɜɚɪɿɸɸɬɶɫɹɜɿɧ
-ɬɟɪɜɚɥɿ ɜɿɞ 0 ɞɨ 100 ɛɚɥɿɜ, ɯɨɱɚɦɨɠɥɢɜɿ ɿ ɛɿɥɶɲ ɟɤɫɬ
-ɪɟɦɚɥɶɧɿ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɧɹ [7]. "Ⱦɢɫɬɚɧɰɿɹ ɜɥɚɞɢ" ɜɢɡɧɚɱɚɽ
